Conventional wisdom among Colts fans is that Bill Polian will not select either a defensive tackle or offensive tackle in the first round because he never does. As usual, conventional wisdom is only half right.
It’s true that Polian has never drafted a defensive tackle in the first round. Not ever. Not with Buffalo, Carolina or Indianapolis. Of his 24 first-round picks, none have been defensive tackles.
But the same is not true of offensive tackles. While it is true the last Polian’s grabbed one in the first round was in 1995, he has made efforts to get offensive tackles throughout his career whenever the need has arisen.
Recent events may have led you to doubt that, but let’s look at history.
When Polian took charge of the Bills, his incumbent left tackle was 34-year-old Ken Jones, a good player, but nearing the end of the line. So with the second pick of the first round of his first draft, Polian selected Will Wolford, an excellent prospect who started 16 games at right guard as a rookie before moving to left tackle in 1987.
Wolford continued to play at a very high level, but with impending free agency looming, Polian drafted his replacement in 1992. John Fina played in all 16 games as a rookie at four different o-line positions. Wolford did indeed move on in 1993, signing an unprecedented, barely legal contact with the Colts (of all teams.) Fina took over as Buffalo’s left tackle and, although he was no Wolford, played well enough during the remainder of Polian’s career in the Queen City.
Polian then took his show to Carolina, which was fielding an expansion team. With his third pick in the first round, Polian selected Blake Brockenmeyer, who started 16 games at left tackle as a rookie. He continued to be the starter at the position as long as Polian was with the team.
When Polian took over the Colts in 1998, he already had a premium left tackle in place – 1997 first-rounder Tarik Glenn, who had started 16 games at right guard as a rook. Glenn played outstanding football for the Colts before suddenly retiring after the 2006 season. Polian thought he had his successor in the 2007 draft when he traded a first-round pick to San Francisco for the right to select Tony Ugoh.
Because of Glenn’s premature departure, Ugoh was thrown into the breach as a rookie and looked awful. He was replaced by second-year guard Charlie Johnson. Ugoh’s rookie season was seen as something as a learning experience, so he was given a shot again in 2008 (in a large part because they had spent their 2008 first-round pick on him). He didn’t look great and was replaced by Johnson again, but the Colts went 12-4 and thought he would develop into a passable starter. In 2009, Colt fans were beginning to make louder calls for a more legitimate replacement for the Ugoh-Johnson tag team, but the Colts drafted halfback Donald Brown instead as insurance for Joseph Addai’s upcoming free agency. Of the tackles selected after Brown that year, only the Patriot’s surprise choice, Sebastian Vollmer, has distinguished himself as a left tackle prospect in the NFL.
The calls became much, much louder in 2010. Ugoh was officially shifted to guard and then cut, while Johnson was named the starting left tackle. Polian, again fearing free agency would rob him of star pass-rushers Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, selected defensive end Jerry Hughes. That day, a poll of Colts fans indicated that 79 percent of fans “loved” the pick.
In hindsight a year later, many Colts fans pointed out that the Colts could have drafted either Roger Saffold or Jared Velderheer, both of whom started at left tackle as rookies. But the truth be told, neither played that much better than Johnson in 2010 (Saffold allowed 3.5 sacks, had 8 penalties and was no asset in the run game, while Veldheer allowed 7.5 sacks and had 15 penalties at a variety of positions) – although both possess much higher upsides.
And, if we actually have to bring this up, I looked at the Colts fan sites from last year and most of them preferred Charles Brown and Bruce Campbell to Saffold and Veldheer, and they both had tragic first seasons, Campbell, in fact, was beaten out by Veldheer, but he appears to still be in the Raiders’ plans.
For full disclosure, here’s what ColtPlay had to say on them:
Saffold: “Looked great in the Senior Bowl, but was inconsistent before that. Will develop, but lacks killer instinct as run blocker. If they drafted him first, I’d be: Okay with it.”
Veldheer: “Who did I have for tonight? Oh yeah, Veldheer and Verner. That would be nice.” (PS: Verner had an awesome rookie season at corner for the Flaming Thumbtacks)
Brown: “Ugh. I hate to say it, but he looks like a potential bust to me. If they drafted him first, I’d be: Wondering if Polian’s lost it.”
Campbell: “Great pass blocker who lacks bite in the run game, is that really what the Colts want? If they drafted him first, I’d be: Okay with it.”
So, while many Colts observers might think that Polian is loathe to draft a tackle, I disagree. In fact, since 1986, he has selected Wil Wolford, John Fina and Blake Brockemeyer. And, he’s traded a first-rounder in 2008 for Tony Ugoh. What’s interesting to note, is that in 2008, the only tackles available when the Colts would have drafted were Jon Greco, Anthony Collins, David Hale, Josh Sitton, Breno Giacomini, Barry Richardson, Nate Garner, Demetrious Bell, Brandon Keith, King Dunlap, Geoff Schwartz and Kirk Barton – none of whom is significantly better than Ugoh.
So, since this is a year with a number of good offensive tackle prospects and the Colts can no longer say they hope Ugoh develops, it looks very much like they will finally draft that offensive tackle in the first round this year.
Below is a list of first-round picks by Polian.
1986 HB Harmon, T Wolford
1987 ILB Conlan
1988 HB Thomas
1989 None
1990 CB Williams
1991 S Jones
1992 T Fina
1993 CB Smith
1995 QB Collins, CB Poole, T Brockenmeyer
1996 HB Biakabutuka
1997 WR Carruth
1998 QB Manning
1999 HB James
2000 ILB Morris
2001 WR Wayne
2002 DE Freeney
2003 TE Clark
2004 None
2005 CB Jackson
2006 HB Addai
2007 WR Gonzalez
2008 None
2009 HB Brown
2010 DE Hughes
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