Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Reading Polian's Mind

Y’know, in spite of his reputation for trickery and deceit, Bill Polian usually gives none-too-subtle clues about who he’ll draft in the first round, or at least which position.

So if we look at what Polian has said about this draft:

1) He blamed the Super Bowl loss on the offensive line, and vowed to make it bigger and tougher. This is eerily reminiscent of what he said about the secondary after a playoff loss in 2004. Of course, in the 2005 draft he selected cornerbacks Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Hayden in the first and second rounds. So you would suppose that the top pick is a lock to be an offensive lineman, until …
2) When commenting on the depth of this draft, Polian pointed out that the linemen depth in this draft is so strong, it would allow the Colts to grab a skill-position player who had fallen below where he should be picked. So now, they won’t grab an offensive lineman?

The other way to tell what position he intends to draft is that he has a habit of clearing roster space for top picks, guys he thinks are locks to make the team. So here’s a position-by-position look at what the Colts have now:

Quarterbacks
Elite starter: Manning
Solid starter: None
Potential starter: None
Role-player/veteran reserve: None
Worthwhile prospects: Painter
Special teams/fringe prospects: Willy
Players lost: Sorgi
Summary: Whether or not the Colts draft a quarterback depends on a) how long they think Manning will last, and b) if they believe Painter is the answer at No. 2. I think Manning’s got five more seasons, and Polian’s history says he likes to grab starting QBs in the first half of the first round after the team bottoms out. So with that theory out, what about Painter? Like it or not, I think the Colts believe in him.
Polian factor: Avoids drafting QBs unless he has to.

Runningbacks
Elite starter: None
Solid starter: Addai
Potential starter: Brown
Role-player/veteran reserve: Hart, Simpson
Worthwhile prospects: None
Special teams/fringe prospects: Moore
Players lost: None
Summary: Even though I’m not completely sold on either Addai or Brown, I don’t think Polian would ever draft three first-round backs in five years.
Polian factor: Loves getting backs other people don’t like as much as he does.

Wide Receivers
Elite starter: Wayne
Solid starter: Gonzalez, Garcon, Collie
Potential starter: None
Role-player/veteran reserve: None
Worthwhile prospects: Smith, Giguere, Matthews, Guice
Special teams/fringe prospects: None
Players lost: Baskett
Summary: A dedicated return man could make sense here, but that’d prolly be a late-round thing. Adam Schefter says that coach Jim Caldwell is considering four-wide sets, which could open up a need for a No. 5 guy.
Polian factor: Stockpiles wideouts of all shapes and sizes.

Tight Ends
Elite starter: Clark
Solid starter: None
Potential starter: None
Role-player/veteran reserve: Robinson
Worthwhile prospects: Tamme, Santi, Cloherty, Petrowski
Special teams/fringe prospects: None
Players lost: None
Summary: It’s probably too early to replace Clark, but I’d like to see better prospects here than what they have. Robinson starts most games, but he’s not a “starter” in the sense most fans mean when they say it.
Polian factor: Prefers wide receivers pretending to be tight ends.

Tackles (assuming Charlie Johnson is not moved inside)
Elite starter: None
Solid starter: Diem
Potential starter: Johnson, Terry
Role-player/veteran reserve: None
Worthwhile prospects: Ugoh
Special teams/fringe prospects: Cadogan
Players lost: Federkeil, Toudouze
Summary: There’s not a lot of talent here. Diem is good, but nearing the end. Johnson is out of place at tackle, and Terry’s just too injury-prone. I’d like to see a first- or second-round pick here.
Polian factor: Tends to grab small-school prospects and hope they’ll get coached up.

Centers and Guards
Elite starter: Saturday
Solid starter: None
Potential starter: DeVan, Alleman
Role-player/veteran reserve: None
Worthwhile prospects: Pollak, Thomas, Richard
Special teams/fringe prospects: None
Players lost: Lilja
Summary: Saturday is still a top center, but also nearing the end of his career. DeVan surprised many in his first year as a starter, but is not a sure thing. Alleman has all the tools, but has yet to put them together. Pollak and Richard have seen some action, but have generally be found wanting; and Thomas is a projection. If the Colts don’t bring in a starting quality tackle (or Terry doesn’t step up), allowing them to shift Johnson back to his natural guard position, I’d like to see an early pick here. Even if that does happen, I’d still like to see some new blood here.
Polian factor: Tends to grab small-school prospects and hope they’ll get coached up. Prefers college centers to guards for both positions in the pros.

Defensive Ends
Elite starter: Freeney, Mathis
Solid starter: None
Potential starter: None
Role-player/veteran reserve: Dawson
Worthwhile prospects: Baldwin, Hardie, Chick
Special teams/fringe prospects: None
Players lost: Brock
Summary: There’s no emergency here, but Freeney and Mathis are both getting older and worn-down, and there’s no obvious replacement on the roster. They could go here in the first, but I’d rather they waited and gambled on a boom-or-bust guy. Actually, they’ve done that lots of times before and the only time it’s worked out has been Mathis.
Polian factor: Can’t get enough pass-rushers, tends to gamble on college production as opposed to size, Combine numbers.

Defensive Tackles
Elite starter: None
Solid starter: None
Potential starter: Muir, Johnson
Role-player/veteran reserve: Foster
Worthwhile prospects: Moala, Gill, King
Special teams/fringe prospects: None
Players lost: Johnson
Summary: Foster’s the best performer here by a wide margin, but would be best served playing fewer snaps. People are raving about Muir and Johnson, but they really looked no better than adequate. None of the prospects really excites me. There are two ways Polian could go on this, either: a) I just drafted two DTs in the second and fourth last year, or b) I expected Big Ed to start, Moala to contribute and Taylor to at least make the team. Unfortunately, I think he’ll stand mostly pat, lean on the top three and hope one of the prospects to pan out. They will most likely draft a DT, but probably late unless a real gem falls to them.
Polian factor: Drafts DTs only reluctantly, and then tends to admire speed and quickness over size and strength.

Outside Linebackers
Elite starter: None
Solid starter: Session
Potential starter: Wheeler
Role-player/veteran reserve: None
Worthwhile prospects: Glenn, Renkart
Special teams/fringe prospects: None
Players lost: Hagler
Summary: The Colts never seemed that comfortable starting Wheeler, and neither of the prospects are anywhere near starting. Expect one or two picks here.
Polian factor: Drafts them in great numbers, but rarely high.

Inside Linebackers
Elite starter: None
Solid starter: Brackett
Potential starter: None
Role-player/veteran reserve: None
Worthwhile prospects: Humber
Special teams/fringe prospects: None
Players lost: Keiaho
Summary: Brackett’s signed for a while, and Humber has some talent, but his services may be required outside. If the Colts draft a middle linebacker, he’ll probably also be able to play outside as well.
Polian factor: Drafts them rarely.

Cornerbacks
Elite starter: None
Solid starter: Hayden, Powers
Potential starter: Lacey
Role-player/veteran reserve: None
Worthwhile prospects: None
Special teams/fringe prospects: Lambert
Players lost: Jackson, Jennings, Rushing
Summary: The top three are fine, but that’s what they are – three. The Colts usually go into a season with five NFL-quality CBs if they can. Look for them to draft at least one, probably early. Polian factor: To Polian, happiness is a new cornerback; he drafts them in droves.

Safeties
Elite starter: Bethea
Solid starter: None
Potential starter: Sanders, Bullitt
Role-player/veteran reserve: Silva
Worthwhile prospects: None
Special teams/fringe prospects: None
Players lost: Francisco
Summary: This is a position that looks like a pillar of strength, but it has its problems. Bethea is on a one-year tender, Sanders played just 75 snaps in 2009 because of one of his inevitable injuries and Bullitt was exposed in coverage often last season. Silva’s not a threat for too much playing time of defense. Getting a young prospect would really help here.
Polian factor: Can and will draft these guys anywhere.

So in conclusion, I have this to say: Your guess is as good as mine. Here's an updated list of the Colts picks to get you started:

1/31
2/63
3/94
4/129
5/162
7/238
7/240
7/246

Friday, March 19, 2010

Update

Sorry I haven’t posted for a while, but it’s been busy here at ColtPlay HQ. Here are some points:

• I’m glad the Colts did not sign Richie Incognito. They need to get tougher and more fiery on the offensive line, but not psychotic.
• Yes, everybody but me is rejoicing Tim Jennings is gone. I always thought he got more criticism than he deserved. His career with the Colts will always be summed by one play – the goal-line stand in Super Bowl XLIV. He got there first, he delivered the hit that stopped the back and allowed bigger men to wrap him up. He got no stat and no credit, but without him, the Saints score. So long, Tim, we didn’t all hate you.
• The Chiefs signed Ryan Lilja. What a joke. They sign him out of college in 2004, cut him and try to stash him on the PS. The Colts grab him, he starts 59 games for them, plays in two Super Bowls, then wears out. He fails his physical with two bad knees, the Colts cut him and the Chiefs welcome him back with a $7.5 million deal. Way to go, KC.
• This is the point of the offseason when I normally start listing who the media is reporting who the Colts are looking at. But since they are so often wrong, I’m probably not going to. It works like this. The local yokel media see the Colts at their team’s pro day and report that they must be there to look at their team’s best player. An example? Take 2008 when the Colts went to the University of Buffalo’s pro day. The draft-oriented media reported en masse that the Colts were interested in Trevor Scott. Made sense, after all. The Colts love undersized pass-rushers from small schools, and Scott was easily the team’s best – or at least, most NFL-ready – player. Although the Colts may well have had some interest in Scott, but repeatedly decided not to draft him (he went to Oakland in the sixth). Instead, the Colts drafted his teammate Jamey Richard and signed another Bull, Ramon Guzman, the next day, and still another, Drew Willy, in 2009. So forgive me if I see the media report that the Colts are interested in James Madison’s Arthur Moats, and don’t post it immediately. Although they could well like Moats, they could just as easily be scouting fellow Dukes Dorian Brooks or Mike Caussin. Still, I am intrigued by their interest in Appalachian State’s Armanti Edwards.

Saturday, March 13, 2010

More Adam Terry

All kinds of blogs and forums are talking about Terry as a guard, and some even say that he played inside when he was with the Ravens and/or Syracuse. But this is what Terry himself said:

"I think I might have put myself in there one time when I was playing Madden, but that’s about the extent of my guard career."

Friday, March 12, 2010

Adam Terry signed!

A few things Colts fans should know about Adam Terry:

He signed a one-year deal, so he’s unlikely viewed as a long-term answer. Still, if he looks awesome, he could be signed to a long-term deal.

In his five years in the NFL, injuries have limited him to 48 of 80 possible regular-season games. He has started 11 games, mostly at left tackle and a few at right tackle. He has allowed nine sacks and been flagged for nine penalties (eight false starts and one hold).

He looked much more effective and comfortable at left tackle than right.

Despite his incredible height, he has short arms. But it hasn’t seemed to hamper him.

Despite his incredible size, his strength and toughness are more often questioned than his balance, footwork or technique.

He’s from a nice little town in the Adirondacks.

Although he has played tight end in short-yardage sets, he has not played a single down at guard in the NFL.

He is considered a better pass blocker than run blocker, and I’d agree.

Injuries: 2009 (knee, 16 games); 2008 (knee, 3 games; concussion 1 game); 2007(ankle, 3 games) and 2005 (ankle, 9 games).

He played extensively on special teams for the Ravens.

He won Syracuse’s Ben Schwartzwalder Exemplary Football Player Award as a junior in 2004. And he also has a degree in history.

He’s a former DT.

He’s considered a good guy in the locker room and the community.

Ran a 5.32 at the Combine, but is a quick starter.

The first time I really noticed him in the NFL was in 2006 when star left tackle Jon Odgen went down after one series against the Steelers, and Terry stepped in. Terry totally neutralized Joey Porter who was Pittsburgh’s pass-rushing star at the time. I made a mental note.

In summary: Terry’s a left tackle who can play on the right side, but any projection of him at guard is just that, a projection (and who ever heard of a 6’8 guard?). If he stays in one piece, he could actually start at left tackle – really, he is that good a pass blocker – allowing Charlie Johnson to move inside and the Colts to groom a rookie to take over in 2011. Just as likely a scenario, though, is that he was signed to be a swing backup and third tight end – just like Dan Federkeil last season – perhaps giving the Colts enough depth to cut ties with Tony Ugoh.

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Keeping up

The big news today is that the Colts are actually looking at a starting-quality free agent. Adam Terry is huge (6080/334/5.32c in 2005) and strong, but is handicapped by short (32-inch) arms and a lack of durability have kept him from being an elite tackle. He’s looked very good when he has played at both right and left tackle (he has the feet for either position), but never really stayed healthy long enough to be a big-time contributor. I’d be happy if the Colts signed him. If he could stay in one piece, he could be a very nice addition, and he certainly fulfills Bill Polian’s mandate of getting bigger and nastier on the O-line.

Marlin Jackson is gone. He signed with the Eagles to play free safety for them. Good luck, Marlin, but you might want to tell your new employers you were much more effective outside than in.

AdamJT13 is a blogger who is uncannily accurate on predicting compensatory draft picks. This year, he says the Colts will get an extra seventh rounder. He also says there will be three awarded between the third and fourth rounds, none between the fourth and fifth, three between the fifth and sixth, six between the sixth and seventh. The Colts’ extra pick will be the third of the 15 awarded after the seventh round. If he’s correct (and he usually is), the Colts draft (trades notwithstanding) would look like this: 1/31, 2/63, 3/94, 4/128, 5/159, 7/224 and 7/228.

And the Colts also showed some interest in a guy who may be under most people’s radar. Mike Balogun (6015/250/4.75e) was a top inside linebacker prospect with the Oklahoma Sooners who lost his senior season’s eligibility because he participated in a semi-pro football league. He’s a good athlete who played very little in college, but showed some great athletic skills. He’d be a huge project, but could be worth it in the long run. Look for him to go undrafted and sign with the Colts as an UDFA.

Wisconsin OLB Jaevery McFadden (6011/230/e4.69) tells me he met with the Colts, among other teams.

Tuesday, March 9, 2010

A pick that makes sense

Some weeks ago, I asked my 12-year-old son who the Colts would draft in the first round. He didn’t even take a second to think about it. “Iupati,” he said, as though it had already happened. I asked him why. “Didn’t you watch the Super Bowl?” he answered. And that was that.

And, you know what? The kid might be right, at least if Iupati lasts that long. He’s a natural left guard (the spot recently opened after the cutting of Ryan Lilja), but has the long arms and footwork to succeed at left tackle. He’s huge (6051/331), tough and strong and has a defensive player’s mentality. I watched him in the Senior Bowl, and he was dominant at left guard, but a little less so when asked to play on the right side.

Iupati is exactly what the Colts need, but it may just be too obvious a pick for Bill Polian.

In other news, the Colts signed a defensive end named JD Skolnitsky (6052/263/4.74pd).

Don’t worry if he’s under your radar. He played at a small school, James Madison, and was declared ineligible for his senior year (2009) because he was caught with a banned substance. As a junior defensive tackle, he stood out with 61 tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks, 3 PBU, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery He signed with the Redskins out of college, and played fairly well for them in preseason at end. He was released by the new regime, and was claimed by the Colts.

He’s quick and strong, but doesn’t project as a top-of-the-line pass-rushing prospect. Instead, his best fit would be as a Raheem Brock-style base end who can slide inside on third down.

Skolnitsky, because he missed his senior year and is still thought of more as an undersized DT than a big DE, is as stealth as a prospect can be. But still, he’s got some decent raw material to work with, and is definitely worth keeping an eye on.

Monday, March 8, 2010

Lilja cut!

Lilja cut! Well, we knew it was gonna be one of them. I actually thought he played well last season, but he’s undersized and he was due a $1.73 million roster bonus. This clears up a couple of things. One, undersized and athletic is out, and big and nasty is in. It also means the Colts are short one starting offensive lineman. They could draft a guard in the first round and plug him into Lilja’s spot, or they could draft a tackle and slide Charlie Johnson into Lilja’s old left guard position. Either way, I think it means the Colts draft a big, ugly man in the first round.

Saturday, March 6, 2010

Pass-blockers

Pass-blocking success rates in 2009
Divide all pass blocks in which no sacks, QB hits or pressures were allowed for a success pas-block percentage. Keep in mind, centers and guards usually have higher scores.

Centers
Saturday 751/765 98.17
Richard 21/21 100.00

Guards
Lilja 735/765 96.08
DeVan 575/603 95.36
Pollak 192/200 96.00
Alleman 127/139 91.37

Tackles
Diem 706/747 94.51
Johnson 576/626 92.01
Ugoh 143/158 90.51
Toudouze 34/37 91.89
Federkeil 0/0 –

Overall ColtPlay pass-blocking score in 2009
This number is similar to above except sacks are worth three points, QB hits are worth two and pressures are worth one. I think it gives a clearer picture of each player’s actual effectiveness.

Centers
Saturday 18/765 97.65
Richard 21/21 100.00

Guards
Lilja 724/765 94.64
DeVan 563/603 93.37
Pollak 183/200 91.50
Alleman 122/139

Tackles
Diem 695/747 93.04
Johnson 561/626 89.62
Ugoh 138/158 87.34
Toudouze 33/37 89.19
Federkeil 0/0 – 87.77

Notes:
1. Players are listed in order of how many pass-blocks they performed at the position
2. Toudouze and Federkeil are currently free agents
3. Federkeil and Richard also played tight end in three tight end sets
4. Alleman’s numbers come from his time with the Chiefs last season, they should be taken with a grain of salt for several reasons

New signing: G Andy Alleman

The newest Colt is former Dolphins and Chiefs guard Andy Alleman (6040/305/5.07c). He was the fourth choice at guard on a very poor Chiefs line last year, and did not distinguish himself. He played six games, starting three (Jacksonville, Oakland and Cleveland). He played 224 snaps (85 run/139 pass) and allowed 2 sacks, 1 hit and 9 pressures (91.37 percent success rate), and fared a little better as a run blocker. He looked awful against the Raiders’ Tommy Kelley, but quite good against the variety of Browns he faced. He had one false-start penalty.

The book on Alleman is that he is a strong and athletic young man, but has been slow to acquire good technique as an offensive lineman after having been switched from defensive line in college. His pro career has been hampered by being cut by the Saints, part of an army of guard prospects in Miami and then just one of the foot soldiers in the disaster that was the Chiefs’ o-line after he was traded to KC last year. When the Saints originally waived him, the Colts were one of seven teams to put in a waiver claim.

With time, patience and good coaching, he could be a viable swing backup at guard and center. Nice bargain-basement pickup. I know everyone is thinking Ryan Lilja right now, but Alleman is a very different kind of player.

Friday, March 5, 2010

Good morning free agency

With Gary Brackett back in the fold and some key free agents – S Antoine Bethea, S Melvin Bullitt, T Charlie Johnson and DTs Dan Muir and Antonio “Mookie” Johnson – tendered, the offseason is beginning to shape up. Here’s a look at the remaining free agents:

WR Hank Baskett: His term in Indy was clearly over anyway

T Dan Federkeil: A Polian and Mudd pet project, but a spare part at best

S Aaron Francisco: His first year in Indy was a disaster, it’ll also be his last

OLB Tyjuan Hagler: Good-enough player on those rare occasions he’s healthy

CB Marlin Jackson: Former first-round pick started season as third corner, got hurt; Colts proved they could win just as easily without him

CB Tim Jennings: Not nearly as bad as the media and fans make him out to be, Jennings was, however, made redundant by the emergence of Jacob Lacey

ILB Freddy Keiaho: No longer seen as a viable starting option

CB T.J. Rushing: Added little on defense, appears to have lost his job as a returner

T Michael Toudouze: Career backup

Of course, that doesn’t mean none of them will be back. Neither Keiaho nor Hagler were tendered last year, and they returned. And Toudouze has been cut so many times, this non-tender probably doesn’t mean much to him.

In other news, the Colts released Jim Sorgi. I find this a tad surprising because Curtis Painter did little to make me think he has a future. Maybe they love Drew Willy.

And Raheem Brock Tweeted that he won’t be a Colts next season. That doesn’t surprise me at all. Not only did he have a poor season against both run and pass, he was scheduled to make $5.9 million in 2010.

So let’s look at the Colts depth chart, subtracting the non-tendered players, Sorgi, Brock and retired Matt Stover:

Quarterbacks
18 Manning, Peyton
7 Painter, Curtis
16 Willy, Drew

Runningbacks
29 Addai, Joseph
31 Brown, Donald
32 Hart, Mike
35 Simpson, Chad
00 Moore, Devin

Wide Receivers
87 Wayne, Reggie
11 Gonzalez, Anthony
85 Garcon, Pierre
17 Collie, Austin
10 Smith, Taj
14 Giguere, Sam
83 Matthews, John
00 Guice Jr., Dudley

Tight Ends
44 Clark, Dallas
47 Robinson, Gijon
86 Santi, Tom
84 Tamme, Jacob
46 Cloherty, Colin
80 Petrowski, Jamie

Tackles
71 Diem, Ryan
74 Johnson, Charlie
67 Ugoh, Tony
00 Cadogan, Gerald

Guards
65 Lilja, Ryan
66 DeVan, Kyle
78 Pollak, Mike
73 Thomas, Jaimie

Centers
63 Saturday, Jeff
61 Richard, Jamey

Defensive Ends
93 Freeney, Dwight
98 Mathis, Robert
96 Dawson, Keyunta
94 Baldwin, Ervin
97 Hardie, Rudolph
00 Chick, John

Defensive Tackles
90 Muir, Daniel
68 Foster, Eric
99 Johnson, Antonio
95 Moala, Fili
69 Gill, John
00 King, Mitch

Outside Linebackers
55 Session, Clint
50 Wheeler, Philip
52 Glenn, Cody
57 Renkart, Brandon

Inside Linebackers
58 Brackett, Gary
59 Humber, Ramon

Cornerbacks
26 Hayden, Kelvin
25 Powers, Jerraud
27 Lacey, Jacob
34 Lambert, Terrail

Safeties
21 Sanders, Bob
41 Bethea, Antoine
33 Bullitt, Melvin
40 Silva, Jamie

Kickers
4 Vinatieri, Adam

Punter
1 McAfee, Pat

Long Snapper
48 Snow, Justin

It looks as though defensive back has moved up the Colts list of draft needs, while defensive tackle has moved down. The Colts still need a long-term answer at left tackle, pass-rushing end to develop, a dedicated return man and to replenish the linebacking crew. I also wouldn’t mind another tight end.

Wednesday, March 3, 2010

Position Analysis: Tight Ends

Next up in our positional analysis is the tight ends. So let’s start by running the tight ends through the same passing statistics car wash we did the receivers.

Keep in mind that some of these guys switch positions from time to time. Of Clark’s 1206 snaps, 996 (82.59 percent) were at tight end, 175 (14.51 percent) were at receiver (either slot or wide), 35 (2.90 percent) were in the backfield (people always say at fullback, but he actually lined up as a halfback in a split-backs set more often than at a true fullback spot 26 to 9). Robinson spent 293 (89.90 percent) of his snaps at tight end and the rest at the H-back; Tamme spent one of his 70 snaps split wide and another at fullback, while Santi and Cloherty were always lined up at tight end.

Going out there: Dividing total number of pass routes by total offensive snaps.

Tamme 48/68 70.59
Cloherty 13/21 61.90
Clark 632/1206 52.40
Santi 30/70 42.86
Robinson 72/326 22.09

Conclusion: Clark was in for most of the Colts’ plays and his run-pass ratio reflects that. Tamme is clearly utilized mostly as a pass receiver, while Robinson and – to a lesser extent – Santi were regarded more as blockers.

Getting open: Dividing the number of pass routes run by how many times the quarterback threw at him.

Santi 30/11 36.67
Clark 632/129 20.41
Robinson 72/14 19.44
Tamme 48/9 18.75
Cloherty 13/1 7.69

Conclusion: This is one of those stats that reflect the fact that Clark played almost every offense play, Robinson was in there for a decent chunk, while the other guys barely played. Of players who played 20 percent or more of the Colts’ offensive snaps, Clark was in first place in this category, with super receiver Reggie Wayne the only one even close.

Catching the ball: Dividing the number of catches by the number of times he was thrown to.

Cloherty 1/1 100.00
Clark 100/129 77.52
Santi 8/11 72.73
Robinson 9/14 64.29
Tamme 3/9 33.33

Conclusion: Again, Clark’s is the only important number here, and it’s very, very good.

Dropsy: Adding drops to catches to determine the number of catchable passes and dividing by drops. The bigger the number, the less often the guy drops.

Cloherty 1/0 –
Tamme 3/0 –
Clark 107/7 15.29
Robinson 10/1 10.00
Santi 9/1 9.00

Conclusion: Traditionally this has been an area of concern for Clark, and he was on or about his career average this season.

Yards per reception: Dividing yards gained by receptions.

Santi 110/8 13.75
Tamme 35/3 11.67
Clark 1106/100 11.60
Robinson 62/9 6.89
Cloherty 2/1 2.00

Conclusion: Except for the plodding Robinson, all of the tight ends scored well here by tight end standards. But it’s also a good example of how small statistical samples affect these sorts of stats. If you take out each player’s longest catch, their averages are: Santi 10.86, Tamme 7.00, Clark 10.63, Robinson 5.38, Cloherty 0.00.

Yards per target: Dividing total yards by how many times the receiver was targeted.

Santi 110/11 11.00
Clark 1106/129 8.99
Robinson 62/14 4.43
Tamme 35/9 3.89
Cloherty 2/1 2.00

Conclusion: Again this was skewed by sample size. Interestingly, Clark’s number was higher than any of the Colts’ wide receivers.

YAC: Dividing total YAC by receptions.

Clark 499/100 4.99
Santi 37/8 4.63
Tamme 12/3 4.00
Robinson 21/9 2.33
Cloherty 0/1 0.00

Conclusion: Again Clark put up great numbers here – he would have come in second among the receivers.

Routes: Taking yards per reception and subtracting average yards after the catch.

Santi 13.75-4.63 9.12
Tamme 11.67-4.00 7.67
Clark 11.60-4.99 6.61
Robinson 6.89-2.33 4.56
Cloherty 2.00-0.00 2.00

Conclusion: Santi’s numbers are distorted because of the one bomb he caught, but it is interesting to see that Tamme usually went deeper than Clark. But nobody should be surprised to see Robinson way behind.

Making ’em miss: Dividing receptions by missed tackles caused.

Clark 9/100 9.00
Robinson 0/9 0.00
Santi 0/8 0.00
Tamme 0/3 0.00
Cloherty 0/1 0.00

Conclusion: Herein is an example of why Clark is not like the other guys.

Moving the chains: Finding the percentage of catches that go for first downs.

Santi 6/8 75.00
Tamme 2/3 66.67
Clark 59/100 59.00
Robinson 3/9 33.33
Cloherty 0/1 0.00

Conclusion: Ugh, this stat has never meant much to me. I only include it because people would ask for it if I didn’t.

Sniffing the end zone: Determining the percentage of receptions that went for touchdowns.

Clark 10/100 59.00
Cloherty 0/1 0.00
Tamme 0/3 0.00
Santi 0/8 0.00
Robinson 0/9 0.00

Conclusion: I think this one kind of speaks for itself.

Up the middle: Simply a look at the player’s receiving production in the toughest part of the field:

Clark 18-145-0
Santi 1-22-0
Robinson 1-6-0
Cloherty 0-0-0
Tamme 0-0-0

Conclusion: See above.

Penalties: The first number is total penalties, the second is how many were declined or offset.

Clark 1-0
Santi 1-0
Robinson 1-1
Cloherty 0-0
Tamme 0-0

Conclusion: Nobody stood out here.

Pass blocking: Percentage of pass blocks that did not result in a sack, QB hit or pressure.

Tamme 1/1 100.00
Clark 113/119 94.96
Robinson 61/66 92.42
Santi 5/6 83.33
Cloherty 0/0 –

Conclusion: This is somewhat misleading – as blocking stats almost always are – because it makes Tamme look like the best pass-blocker of the lot and Santi the worst when the exact opposite is closer to the truth. Santi’s one sad attempt to stop Calvin Pace on his way to Curtis Painter skews his stats in a negative way just as much as the 31-yard bomb he caught distorts his receiving stats in a positive way. The fact is that none of the Colts tight ends will remind you of an extra tackle – and when the Colts go with three tight ends on short yardage, the third is an offensive lineman like Dan Federkeil or Jamie Richard. Robinson and Cloherty block like the fullbacks they were in college, Clark and Tamme like the bulked up receivers they are and Santi more like a traditional tight end. But he is not that far ahead of the others.

Run blocking: When it comes to run blocking, I just have to use the old eyeball test. Actually, I have pages and pages of data that have to be cross-referenced but they are even more goofy, vague and misleading than pass-blocking stats. I factor them into my opinion, but they are not worth sharing here. Instead here are the tight ends ranked from best to worst in my opinion.

Robinson
Cloherty
Santi
Clark
Tamme

Conclusion: Robinson and Cloherty block like fullbacks on running plays too – great when on the move or downfield, but not so impressive in-line. The others don’t add much, although Clark is better in this regard than he is usually described as.

And I always include a few statistical odds and ends.

Clark and Santi both fumbled once. Clark ran twice for 11 yards. Tamme had seven special-teams tackles and two assists.

Conclusion: Tamme is effective on kick coverage units, missing just one tackle all year.
So let’s move onto the players on hand.

Dallas Clark
(6033/257/4.65c in 2003)
The consensus these days seems to be that a star tight end is a receiver first and blocker second. And Clark certainly fits that mold, and is maybe the best in the biz. His numbers would make most teams’ No. 1 receiver proud. He’s a deep threat, he’ll go over the middle, he’s a blitz outlet, he can take a screen all the way, he’s a red zone target ... in short, Clark is everything you want from a receiver. And his blocking is better than many critics would have you believe.

Gijon Robinson
(6006/255/4.71c in 2007)
Robinson plays like the hard-working small-school fullback he was. He has good hands but has a hard time getting open, which makes him a dump-off option only who adds little after the catch. He blocks well on the move and downfield, but not so great on the line. Oh, and you can forget that Combine forty, he plays nowhere near that fast. But he is the kind of guy you want on the roster ... as a No. 3 tight end, not the No. 2 he is now. One thing to note about Robinson: People talk about starters as though they are so much better than non-starters. That’s true when it comes to quarterbacks and offensive linemen, but not always true at other positions. Robinson started 10 games last season, and Austin Collie started five. But Collie played 908 snaps and looked like a major offensive weapon, while Robinson played 326 snaps and looked like a spare part.

Tom Santi
(6034/250/4.80c in 2008)
After the 2008 draft when everyone was going nuts over Tamme, I was more excited by Santi. My reasoning was this: Tamme was a skinny, no-block pass-catcher while Santi was a bulkier, more complete tight end. Since Clark had the pass-catching role taken care of ably and Robinson had a shakier hold on the other spot, I thought Santi had the better chance to make a case for playing time. It didn’t happen. Nagging injuries bedevilled Santi, and even when healthy, he ha s only shown flashes. He’ll get another chance to prove he belongs, but tight end No. 3 is not a position that offers a great deal of job security.

Jacob Tamme
(6034/236/4.58c in 2008)
A lot of Colts fans were excited when they drafted Tamme in 2008, based on his immense production at Kentucky. But there was always the nagging question – is he a big, slow wide receiver or a skinny, no-block tight end? So far, he hasn’t really been either. Injuries have been a problem, but with so many other receiving options, Tamme has not really had a chance to make a case for himself. He has shown some ability on kick coverage teams, but not enough to guarantee himself a roster spot. Tamme may have a hard time sticking for a third season, unless he steps up and shows he can fill a defined role.

Colin Cloherty
(6021/245/4.78pd in 2009)
I know what you’re thinking: a slow, Ivy League fullback? Sign me up! Actually Cloherty has great hands, plays with football intelligence and is stronger than his size would indicate. He has a tough road ahead of him, but could well outlast players with much more hype.

Jamie Petrowski
(6037/248/4.75e in 2006)
This is what I said about Petrowski almost a year ago:

You guys probably know more about this old Sycamore than I do. But I have seen him — mostly when he was a Titan in the preseason — so I know a little. Petrowski has good hands and vision, and is a some natural run-after-the catch instincts. He’s a load to bring down with the ball in his hands, but he’s not exactly Tony Gonzalez when it comes to getting open. As a blocker, he’s a big strong lad who shows potential, but not much refinement in that area. He’s sort of the odd man out in this little group because he’s more of a traditional complete tight end.

That’s all still true, but you also have to factor in the horrific injury that wiped out his 2009 season.

Conclusion: There’s a temptation to think of the Colts’ tight ends as superstar Clark and a bunch of guys. Give in to that temptation, because it’s true. Robinson holds on to his “starting” role because the Colts have no other realistic option. Santi and Tamme still have much of the potential they had when they were drafted, but their injuries and lack of production have put their futures in jeopardy. Cloherty is a long shot, but the kind the Colts like. Keep an eye on him. And it’s nice to have Petrowski around.

But, if I may paraphrase the old adage, if you have five guys who could be your No. 2 tight end, you don’t really have a No. 2 tight end. I really think the Colts will draft a tight end this year. Bill Polian will salivate at the pass catchers, but cooler minds will suggest a more complete player to complement Clark.

Monday, March 1, 2010

Position Analysis: Receivers

Okay, here’s a longer, more serious positional analysis. Let’s talk receivers, both wide and slot. While some guys argue that another site told them that Player A’s PVR is higher that Player B’s PDA, I look at a variety of stats and use my own eyes and experience to come up with an opinion.

Here’s a little sample of how I rate wide receivers:

The first category is about getting open or, at least, how much the quarterback trusts him. Either way, it’s a good thing. It’s not very scientific, but I came at the number by how many dividing the number of pass routes run by how many times the quarterback threw at him.

Wayne 732/146 19.95
Collie 634/85 13.41
Baskett 75/10 13.33
Garçon 672/88 13.10
Giguere 20/2 10.00
Gonzalez 8/0 0.00

Conclusion: Peyton Manning, of course, relies a great deal on Wayne, and he is very good at getting open. I wasn’t really surprised to see Collie edge Garçon on this because of his time in the slot, but it was a shock to see Baskett so high. At least it was until I realized that the majority of Baskett’s routes (and virtually) all of his targets came when he was playing with Curtis Painter, often as his best or second-best receiver. Gonzo only ran eight routes, so he can be forgiven. You know what, you can pretty well ignore any of his stats this season.

This is kind of going in a different direction, but the most traditional way of see how well a guy catches, you divide the number of catches by the number of times he was thrown to.

Collie 85/60 70.59
Wayne 146/100 68.49
Garçon 88/47 53.41
Baskett 10/4 40.00
Giguere 2/0 0.00
Gonzalez 0/0 –

Conclusion: Both Collie and Wayne had extraordinary years in this category. Collie’s was inflated some by his running shorter routes and, conversely, Garçon’s was brought down by his running longer routes (which we’ll get to later). Still, Garçon’s is low even for his type of routes and the old eyeball test tells me his concentration varies from play to play and that he makes circus catches and also whiffs on a few easy ones. He should improve. Baskett and Giguere are hard to judge because they weren’t getting Manning’s tight spirals, but Painter’s wobbly lobs. Over his career, Baskett’s generally been okay in this category.

Another way to look at hand quality is to see how often he drops the ball when he could have caught it. So I added drops to catches to determine the number of catchable passes and divided by drops. The bigger the number, the less often the guy drops.

Wayne 103/3 34.33
Collie 53/3 17.67
Garçon 51/4 12.75
Baskett 5/1 5.00
Giguere 0/0 –
Gonzalez 0/0 –

Conclusion: Wow. Wayne has long had a rep as a guy who won’t break your heart, and he was great last season. Collie and Garçon were about average in this category, and, well, Baskett can always blame Painter.

Here’s an oldie but a goodie, average yards per reception. Just divide yards gained by receptions and you can see ... well ... lots of things.

Garçon 765/47 16.28
Wayne 1264/100 12.64
Collie 676/60 11.27
Baskett 28/4 7.00
Giguere 0/0 0.00
Gonzalez 0/0 0.00

Conclusion: Garçon’s a deep threat. Yep, he sure is.

Here’s one I find more interesting. Instead of looking at how many yards a receiver gained for every catch he made, I like looking at how many yards the guy gained for every time he’s thrown at. So I took total yards and divided them by how many times the receiver was targeted.

Garçon 765/88 8.69
Wayne 1264/146 8.66
Collie 676/84 8.05
Baskett 28/10 2.80
Giguere 0/2 0.00
Gonzalez 0/0 –

Conclusion: Although the top three were all close, I was surprised to see Garçon’s longer receptions outdo Wayne’s better hands in this category.

And, of course, there’s always YAC – yards after the catch. This is a valuable stat that shows how elusive the receiver is after he catches the ball. I simply divided total YAC by receptions.

Garçon 290/47 6.17
Wayne 440/100 4.40
Collie 251/60 4.18
Baskett 3/4 0.75
Giguere 0/0 0.00
Gonzalez 0/0 –

Conclusion: Garçon’s incredible football speed – he ran a 4.42 at the combine, but plays a lot faster – combined with the fact that he usually caught in less traffic contribute to his great numbers in this category.

And, although it probably should have shown up higher on this list, here’s an indicator of what kind of routes these guys are running. If you take yards per reception and subtract average yards after the catch, you can see where these guys, on average, caught their passes.

Garçon 16.28-6.17 10.11
Wayne 12.64-4.40 8.24
Collie 11.27-4.18 7.09
Baskett 7.00-0.75 6.25
Giguere 0.00-0.00 0.00
Gonzalez -- - -- --

Conclusion: Once again, we see that Garçon is a deep threat, Collie gets the short stuff in traffic and Wayne does both. Garçon’s average route is more than 10 yards downfield, while Collie’s are just a little more than two-thirds as long.

This is another YAC-related one. By dividing receptions by missed tackles caused, you can see how often each guy makes defenders miss. I know it’s contrived, but it’s also interesting.

Garçon 47/4 11.75
Wayne 100/7 14.28
Collie 60/3 20.00
Baskett 4/0 --
Giguere 0/0 --
Gonzalez 0/0 –

Conclusion: Again the superfast Garçon comes out on top.

And here’s one lots of people like, but I’ve never been all that crazy about – percentage of catches that go for first downs.

Wayne 73/100 73.00
Garçon 33/47 70.21
Collie 37/60 61.67
Baskett 1/4 25.00
Giguere 0/0 --
Gonzalez 0/0 –

Conclusion: The top three guys are pretty good at moving chains.

The next stat looks at how well they sniff the end zone. It’s found by determining the percentage of receptions that went for touchdowns.

Collie 7/60 11.67
Wayne 10/100 10.00
Garçon 4/47 8.51
Baskett 0/4 0.00
Giguere 0/0 --
Gonzalez 0/0 –

Conclusion: I did notice that Manning was looking for Collie in the red zone, especially as the year went on. Garçon’s TDs came from 48, 53, 29 and 9 yards out – further indication that he’s a deep threat, not a red-zone guy.

And here's one used to measure toughness, how productive was he in the middle where safeties love to lay the wood.

Collie 15-184-4
Wayne 5-65-1
Garçon 1-14-0
Baskett 0-0-0
Giguere 0-0-0
Gonzalez 0-0-0

Conclusion: Collie does not fear the middle. Garçon just might.

I always like to look at penalties no matter what the position, just to get an indication of the player’s discipline and concentration. The first number is total penalties, the second is how many were declined or offset.

Garçon 9-2
Wayne 4-1
Collie 3-1
Baskett 0-0
Giguere 0-0
Gonzalez 0-0

Conclusion: Garçon’s youth and small-school background worked against him here, I think. He also had a penalty on special teams.

When it comes to blocking, I just have to use the old eyeball test. Here they are from best to worst.

Collie
Garçon
Wayne
Gonzalez
Baskett
Giguere

Conclusion: All of these guys make an effort, but Collie’s superior upper-body strength helps him. Giguere’s rating could change with more exposure, but he was whiffing against the Bills.

And I always include a few statistical odds and ends.

Garçon fumbled once, Garçon ran twice for 10 yards, Collie ran twice for 1 yard, Collie returned a kick 8 yards, Baskett had on special-teams assisted tackle

Conclusion: These guys don’t do a lot on special teams.

So let’s move onto the players on hand.

Reggie Wayne
(6000/198/4.45c in 2001)
While Wayne may have been edged out in a few of those stats, he is a far better player than any of them. Keep in mind that he’s the guy that sees the Darrelle Revises of the world and nets double and even triple coverage at times. Despite not having any measurable superlatives, Wayne is one of the NFL’s best and most productive receivers. Although he didn’t become a full-time starter until midway through his third season and he played in Marvin Harrison’s shadow for years after that, Wayne has averaged 75.1 catches, 1,043.7 yards and 7.0 touchdowns a season throughout his nine-year career. Signed through the 2011 season, there’s no reason to believe he won’t continue to be immensely productive.

Pierre Garçon
(5117/210/4.42c in 2008)
A sixth-round pick out of DIII powerhouse Mount Union, Garçon showed promise as a rookie catching four passes for 23 yards and returning 22 kicks for 475 yards. He entered 2009 camp competing with Collie and the since-departed Roy Hall for the third receiver spot. He lost to Collie, who seemed better suited to inside work, and became the top backup at all three spots. When Gonzalez was injured in the first regular season game, Garçon took over and put up numbers similar to what the Colts expected of Gonzalez in the regular season and he looked great in the playoffs. With Gonzalez back at full-speed, it looks like the pair will battle for the No.2 outside spot. Garçon’s advantage is that he’s much more explosive.

Austin Collie
(6007/200/4.56c/4.53pd in 2009)
A fourth-round pick few expected much from right away, he showed a great deal of maturity (because of a Mormon mission, he came out at 23) and won the slot receiver outright. His ascent demonstrates the inherent differences between wide receivers and slot receivers. Garçon is faster, a better leaper and more likely to make the circus catch, while Collie has more consistent hands, short-area quickness and a stronger upper body to fight for the ball. If the competition were held again today, Collie would again win, even though we have all seen how productive Garçon can be. But, if the same competition were held outside, Garçon would come out on top. One runs flies and posts, the other makes his money running hooks and slants. So Collie has a good hold on the slot spot, unless Gonzalez loses his bid for an outside position, Unlike either Collie and Garçon, Gonzalez is comfortable in either spot, so he could edge Collie out.

Anthony Gonzalez
(6000/193/4.44c in 2007)
A former first-round pick, Gonzalez was an undisputed starter heading into 2009, but suffered a season-ending right knee injury in the first game. It’s not a huge statistical survey, but it’s important to note that of 13 offensive snaps Gonzalez was healthy in 2009, Wayne played 13, Gonzalez 12, Collie two and Garçon none. Based on his previous production, the Colts can look for a cross between Garçon and Collie. Comfortable either inside or out, Gonzalez has recorded high catch rates (67-73 percent) and decent per-catch averages (11.65-15.57) and shown speed, hands, good cuts, but an annoying tendency to drop some easy ones. He will definitely expect a starting role when he’s healthy enough to reassume one, but he’ll have to beat out Garçon or Collie to get one.

Hank Baskett
(6027/224/4.50c in 2006)
The book on Baskett when he arrived in Coltland as a veteran injury replacement after Gonzalez went down was that he was competent, but not special. He was fast, but didn’t play fast. He was big, but didn’t play big. He was hampered to some extent by playing with Curtis Painter at QB, but didn’t look great at any time. In truth Baskett looked like he ended his tenure with the Colts when he muffed the Saints onside-kick attempt in the Super Bowl. In the unlikely event they do ask him back, he’d have a hard time getting any PT after the emergence of Garçon and Collie and the return of Gonzalez.

Samuel Giguere
(5110, 220, 4.41pd in 2008)
There’s raw, then there’s really raw, then there was Giguere when he came out. He played his home games in an 8,000-seat stadium for Le Vert & Or (The Green and Gold) at the Université de Sherbrooke, about a two-hour drive from Montreal in a part of Quebec called the Eastern Townships. There are different rules, a different ball and a different-sized field. But it’s not impossible to make the jump. Former Colts second rounder Jerome Pathon (a South African by birth) played in the CIS before jumping to the NCAA. Lots of Colts fans like Giguere because of his interesting story and his bod-builder physique, but he’s still a long shot. He’s been on the Practice Squad for most of two years now, and has played one regular season game. Interestingly, that game was in deep snow, something Giguere should be used to. He didn’t catch either of the passes Painter shot-put his way, but he was the team’s primary kick returner, and did a decent job. He recorded 5-122-0 on returns of 11, 31, 36, 18 and 26 yards. He also made a nice attempt to down a punt at the Bills’ 8-yard line, but it bounced away from him. And it looks very much like special teams will be Giguere’s ticket to playing in the NFL. He has the look of a gunner, but may have to earn his spot by winning the kick return job outright. He has some of the attributes you look for in a returner, but did not excel at the position in college ... sorry, université.

Taj Smith
(6003/187/4.59c4.43pd in 2008)
Colts fans underestimate Smith because they don’t know much about him other than his Combine forty and his arrest. But Colts players and coaches talk about how athletic he is and what a great guy he is. Smith was productive in a bad offense at Syracuse, and could well emerge after spending most of the last two seasons on the Colts Practice Squad. But the reality of the situation is that the Colts already have four starting-quality receivers and almost never play four wide; and when they do, that fourth is usually tight end Dallas Clark. So to make the team, Smith (et al) would have to look outstanding as a receiver or at least very, very good on specials.

John Matthews
(5113/200/4.52pd in 2009)
The Colts signed Matthews as an undrafted free agent and he spent most of his rookie season on the practice squad. He’s a similar player to Collie in that he’s neither fast nor big, but shifty with good hands and very, very productive in college (195-3,615-50). The difference would appear to be that Collie’s strength and determination put him on a somewhat higher level. Although Matthews doesn’t look like he’ll offer much on specials, he could win a spot on receiving ability alone. Look at the preseason, Smith caught 5 of 11 passes thrown his way for 59 yards and one touchdown and Giguere was not thrown at once, while Matthews caught 7 of 9 for 85 and no scores. His best shot would be to convince the Colts they need a backup slot guy even though they have Collie and Gonzalez on hand.

Dudley Guice Jr.
(6024/209/4.40pd in 2009)
What can I say about Guice that hasn’t already been written? He actually has a good shot to earn the No. 5 position because he has a very high ceiling as a receiver and has a special-teams mentality. He’s worth developing, and his special-teams ability could keep him on the roster, rather than the Practice Squad.

Conclusion: There is a lot of premium talent here, but also a ton of impending competition. Wayne is safe at No. 1. Gonzalez will have to fight Garçon and Collie for playing time, and it could well be quite a scrap in either case. The fifth receiver spot is open, and the Colts have collected a number of well qualified candidates (did you know that Smith, Giguere, Matthews and Guice all graduated before they signed with the Colts?) to take over. It’s unlikely the Colts will draft another receiver – but you never know with Bill Polian at the helm – but they will bring in some UDFAs.

Position Analysis: Quarterbacks

All the other sites are doing position analyses, so ColtPlay will take a shot too. Here's No. 1:

I was going to do a whole big quarterback positional analysis with lots of numbers and everything, but I think I can condense it. Look at it this way: If the Colts play all 16 games with their current players and try to win each of them, with Peyton Manning behind center, I’d expect they win 14 to 16; with Jim Sorgi, it would be 7 or 8; and with Curtis Painter 0 to 2. Manning and Sorgi are in the plateau of their careers in which they are unlikely to show much improvement or decline right away. Painter is at the beginning of his pro career, but must make huge mental strides (like not panicking at the snap of every play) to make any progress as an NFL player.