Friday, February 29, 2008

Say it ain't so, Cro!

The Colts released Craphonso Thorpe today, thinning the logjam at reserve wide receiver and reducing the number of experienced kick returners on the roster to just one. (1) To those who follow the Colts, Cro's release shouldn't come as that much of a shock. Pressed into action last year after injuries decimated the club's receiving corps, Thorpe stepped in and was so-so. He showed decent hands and speed, but suffered greatly from the slightest of chucks and was frequently put off his routes. He never dared go anywhere near the hashmarks (2) and was consistently outwrestled. The result was 12 catches out of 20 thrown his way for a decent 60 percent average, but gained just 70 yards (5.83 per reception), (3) with a mere 17 yards after the catch (1.42 per reception) — and just four first downs. Perhaps more pointed is the fact that the Colts went 1-2 in games Thorpe played, and 12-1 when he didn't.

He was okay, but nothing special as a returner, going 15-318-0 (a 21.20 average) on kicks, and 6-31-0 (a 5.20 average) on punts. (4)

So where does all this leave the Colts? Well, I'll be writing my wide receiver positional analysis in the next few days and we can discuss it then.

Until then, some points to ponder while we wait for the draft and watch the other teams play free agency:

• The Colts' fourth-best wide receiver is Devin Aromashadu (5)
• The Colts' third-best guard is Mike Elgin
• The Colts' second-best center is Patrick Ross (6)
• The Colts' third-best defensive end is Jeff Charleston
• The Colts' second-best inside linebacker is Victor Worsley

Notes:
1. For better or worse, the Colts have put their return stock in TJ Rushing. Although I like him as a returner and sometime defensive back, I'd love to see the Colts bring in some competition.
2. Arrrr, there be hard-hittin' safeties thar.
3. I'm sorry, 5.83? That's awful. I always think 12.50 is the bottom acceptable for a wideout, 10.00 for a tight end (unless he's a big-time blocker) and 7.50 for a halfback. To put this in perspective, 60.00 percent of passes to Cro were complete. Those that were, gained 5.83 yards, so throwing to Cro averaged 3.50 yards. Makes you want to go wishbone.
4. But he had NO fair catches. Look, we all know the Colts are horrible at protecting their return men, so that this guy could catch six with once waving is a spectacular testament to his courage.
5. Before you tell me that Roy Hall is nine feet tall and 7,000 pounds and runs a 0.03 forty, let me tell you that I have actually seen young Mr. Aromashadu outwit and outrun NFL-quality defensive backs, and I haven't seen Hall do anything close to that.
6. Or Ross Patrick, I'm not sure.

Thursday, February 28, 2008

Tender and juicy

The Colts virtually never deviate from the Polian doctrine. As soon as the Colts cleared $8 million off their salary cap by cutting two capable, but expensive and ultimately expendable players in Rob Morris and Booger McFarland, they tendered all of their restricted free agents — Matt Giordano, Dylan Gandy, Ben Utecht, Bryan Fletcher and Darrell Reid — with enough left over to cover the rookie pool.

As is standard operating procedure in Indy, each of the restricted free agents received a $927,000 one-year tender. That allows the Colts to match any offers these guys get and, if they choose not to match, they get a draft pick in compensation matching the pick originally used on that player.

In this case, though, the situation isn't as bright as it sounds. Everybody with a passing familiarity with the NFL knows that the salary cap room-strapped Colts won't match any decent offers these guys get. If any gets a decent offer, the Colts will be forced to wave good-bye. And I wouldn't get too excited about the draft-pick compensation, either. while Giordano and Gandy were both fourth rounders, the other three were all undrafted.

But keep in mind that Colts usually find a less-than-welcoming reception on the free agent market

So let's take a look at who they are:

Dylan Gandy
Why he'll get an offer:
A skilled guard who can also play center, Gandy has starting experience in a high-powered offense. An active player with good athleticism, Gandy plays with discipline and is durable. A smart player, he understands zone blocking and blitz pickup responsibilities. Why he'll stay: Ex-Colt linemen have bombed after leaving Indy, and teams are cautious. Gandy is undersized and any GM who signs him will have to explain why he spent a fourth-round pick, cash and cap space not just for a guard who couldn't crack the starting lineup in three seasons, but also such a small one. Percent chance he'll stay in Indy this year: 85. There are lots teams with offensive line woes and cap space (they tend to go together), so Gandy will be checked out. But guards rarely get much attention in free agency unless they are really good or really big — and that fourth-round pick looms large. There are tons of guards on the market this year, and Gandy's just another guy to most teams.

Matt Giordano
Why he'll get an offer:
A hard-hitting safety with starting-quality skills against both the run and pass. A natural runner, Giordano's a threat to score every time he touches the ball. He'll never get a chance to start in Indy with Bob Sanders and Antoine Bethea in town and may be looking for a shot elsewhere. Why he'll stay: The Colts really like Giordano and realize that self-destructive Sanders won't last a 16-game season, and know that Giordano can step in without a significant dropoff. As with Gandy, any GM signing him will have to explain why he invested in a guy who never cracked the starting lineup and lacks deep speed or size. Percent chance he'll stay in Indy this year: 75. While fans around the league don't know him, GMs do. Giordano could well start for many teams in the NFL, or at least be a very good No. 3. But why spend a fourth-round pick on a guy who's going to be unrestricted next season?

Ben Utecht
Why he'll get an offer:
A proven receiver with good hands, sharp routes, the ability to get deep and starting experience; Utecht can even block a little. Utecht can play tight end, H-back, fullback, slot receiver, wide receiver and even long snapper. Oh, and he's an honest 6'6 and a solid all-around guy. Why he'll stay: Utecht is almost laughably injury-prone, and what receiver gives up a chance to play with Peyton Manning? Percent chance he'll stay in Indy this year: 80. Utecht is a player of rare ability and signing him would cost nothing more than his paycheck. But he's missed an average of six games a seasons as a pro — try explaining that to the media when you've spent millions on him.

Bryan Fletcher
Why he'll get an offer:
While he's not quite as reliable a receiver as Utecht, Fletcher is proven commodity with some red zone flair — and he's far more durable. Though not likely to start elsewhere, few teams wouldn't welcome a player as versatile and useful as Fletcher. With no compensation due and the Colts unlikely to match, it wouldn't take much to pry Fletcher away from the Colts. Why he'll stay: Coming off a down year, Fletcher's bargaining power is way down. Percent chance he'll stay in Indy this year: 60. Essentially an unrestricted free agent the Colts have invited back, Fletcher has a good thing going in Indy but could easily be swayed by a longer-term deal.

Darrell Reid
Why he'll get an offer:
Known for his highlight-reel special teams hits, Reid has experience playing both tackle and end. An active player, he could be better off as a 3-4 end than he has been a 4-3 tackle. Why he'll stay: While you'll see his big special-teams hit on ESPN, you won't see his just-as-frequent whiffs — but scouts will. Few teams have much respect for the Colts defensive tackle corps, and Reid hasn't come within sniffing distance of regular playing time. A marijuana arrest won't help his case, either. Percent chance he'll stay in Indy this year: 90. The Colts like their top trio of tackles — Raheem Brock, Ed Johnson and Quinn Pitcock — and are unlikely to invest much in the position in this year's draft. Instead, Reid will probably be allowed to compete with undersized soph Keyunta Dawson and any late-rounders or undrafted free agents the team acquires.

New depth chart (no free agents)

QB Manning Sorgi Betts
RB Addai Keith Lawton Dawson Hairston
WR Harrison Wayne Gonzalez Thorpe Roby Shelton Jones
TE Clark Hall Robinson Herold
T Ugoh Diem Johnson Federkiel Toudouze Hilliard
G Lilja Elgin Esera
C Saturday Ross

DE Freeney Mathis Charleston Dawson Ishola Milan
DT Brock Johnson Pitcock Bradley
OLB Keiaho Hagler Session Guzman Nande
ILB Brackett Worsley Shotwell
CB Jackson Hayden Jennings Hughes Rushing Coe Ratliff
S Sanders Bethea Bullitt Condren Smith

K Vinatieri Andrus
P Smith Stanley
LS Snow

Wednesday, February 27, 2008

So long Morris, g'bye Booger

One day after Coltplay predicted it, the Colts cut Rob Morris and Booger McFarland after they both failed physicals. The affects on the defense will not be profound. McFarland missed the entire 2007 season and Morris' year ended after just 57 snaps, so their replacements are entrenched. A combination of Ed Johnson and Quinn Pitcock will take over for Booger, while the starting outside linebackers will be Freddie Keiaho and Tyjuan Hagler, with potential star Clint Session and Ramon Guzman, a skilled pass-rusher, fighting for time.

Still, the Colts will miss Morris. Say what you will about him, he saved the day on defense in the 2006 Super Bowl run and was a demon on specials. And they don't have a replacement for him there.

Position analysis: Running backs

Starter
Joseph Addai in 2007: 261-1072-12 rushing, 41-364-3 receiving

Backups
Kenton Keith in 2007: 121-533-3 rushing, 13-77-1 receiving
Clifton Dawson in 2007: 30-64-1 rushing, 2-15-0 receiving, 1 special-teams tackle
Luke Lawton in 2007: 5-13-0 rushing, 4-29-1 receiving, 8 special-teams tackles, 3 special-teams assists
Justice Hairston in 2007: no stats (1)

Free agents
None

Analysis
I never believed the rumor that Bill Polian really wanted Laurence Maroney in 2006 and settled for Addai (5112, 214, 4.40 in 2006) after the Patriots grabbed Maroney. Though a case could be made that Maroney is a more natural runner, Addai is a much more complete back — a better receiver and a far, far better pass-blocker (2) — and possesses a personality that better fits the Colts' ideal.

That said, I think Addai is a really, really good back, but not quite a great one. He does everything you want well, but doesn't play to his timed speed and has no truly outstanding attributes. (3) But that's okay. The Colts' offense is so high-powered that a highly competent back like Addai can produce like a superstar.

The one caveat with Addai has been durability. Although he hasn't had any serious injuries in his to seasons as a pro, Addai was frequently hobbled at LSU.

Luckily, the Colts have a talented No. 2 back. In fact, Keith (5110, 207, 4.44 in 2001) had a better per-carry average last year than Addai — 4.40 yards to 4.11 — and he was stuffed less often and had a much higher percentage of runs that led to first downs. He's a slashing, creative runner with explosive cuts who can spot a crease and plays bigger than his size would lead you to believe.

So why isn't Keith starting? Well, he's an incomplete back. What stands out most obviously is that he's a lousy receiver. Addai caught 83.76 percent of passes thrown his way last season — about average for halfbacks. Keith? Just 56.52 percent. (4) And he didn't do much with the passes he caught, averaging 5.92 yards per catch (8.88 for Addai) and 5.85 yards after the catch (8.63). He also has a rep for fumbling. Although he only put the ball on the ground once last season, he did it a lot when he played in Saskatchewan. And, although he's not the worst pass-blocking halfback in the NFL, he's in the bottom quarter or so.

While Keith may not have the qualities the Colts are looking for in a starting back, he's a quality No. 2, and is especially valuable late in games when the Colts move into ball-control mode. (5)

Lawton (5115, 237, 4.55 (6) in 2004) doesn't even pretend to be a complete back. Dude is a fullback. Although he was a feared runner and receiver at McNeese State, his lack of speed and agility means that if he gets the ball in the NFL, it's on a gadget play or an emergency dump-off. His value is more as a blocker and special-teams guy.

Harvard alum Dawson (5095, 214, 4.54 in 2007) is a skilled back, but in limited playing time last year indicated he may not have the initial quickness to carve out a niche in the NFL.

Hairston (6006, 210, 4.58 in 2007) is an interesting story. A young prospect at Rutgers, he got in trouble and landed at Central Connecticut State (7) where he powered through 1-AA defenses like a cannonball through marshmallow. As a senior, he rushed 277-1877-20, including an NCAA record 197 yards in a single quarter, despite having every single eye in the stadium on him. The Patriots drafted him in the sixth round (8), but he suffered an injury in the summer, was placed on injured reserve and eventually reached an injury settlement with the team and was released. The Colts put him on the practice squad and thought enough of him to invite him back this season.

I saw him play at Rutgers and this kid has great instincts, but his lack of deep speed — as well as my deep-seated distrust of halfbacks taller than me — make me wonder if he's a serious candidate to make the roster in September.

What I'd do
Barring injury or a rash of fumbles, I think Addai and Keith will hang onto the top two spots. The other guys will have to fight for jobs. While Lawton is a useful player and fan favorite, players with his skills are not rare as evidenced by the fact that he's been cut eight times in his NFL career. Dawson may be lacking the necessary stuff for the NFL, and Hairston is a long-shot of the lottery ticket variety.

I think the Colts would be well-served to invest a pick in a back with receiving and blocking skills to serve as No. 3 or —perhaps eventually — serve as the primary backup to Addai.
I really like South Carolina's Cory Boyd, but I think his character problems might prevent him from being a Colt. Morgan State's Chad Simpson is a similar player with a less blemished resume. The glut of backs in this draft could easily push a talent like him to the fifth round.

Notes:
1. Not even preseason stats.
2. There's no comparison, Addai looks like a guard compared to Maroney.
3. His two best attributes are pass-blocking and a nose for the end zone — nice skills to have.
4. You can say that the sampling is too small to be significant, but I watched him for years in the CFL and can tell you he has subpar hands at best.
5. Many people like a big pounder in the fourth quarter, but I prefer a speedy slasher. If you are a tired and disillusioned defender, it's harder to chase a player like Keith than it is to bring down a plodder like, say, Ron Dayne.
6. I've seen him play — that McNeese State pro day timing of 4.55 must have been downhill, or maybe down a cliff. I think a 4.75 is more realistic.
7. America's oldest public university!
8. Patriots' vice president of player personnel Scott Pioli is a CC State grad.

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

New players coming ... in April

Now maybe the e-mails will stop. I get a lot of them this time of year from people who want to talk Colts free agency. Should they sign Randy Moss? How about Rex Grossman (1)? Wouldn't Lance Briggs look good with a horseshoe on his hat? The Pats cut Rosevelt Colvin, should the Colts grab him? I generally tell them that the Colts will do what they always do: Take of their own guys first, set aside the rookie allotment, and — if there is any money left — think about a veteran free agent or two.

Well, this year, there is no money left. The last report I saw had the Colts about $230,000 OVER the cap. Not only aren't the Colts not going to sign anyone from another team, they are unlikely, he said, to re-sign any of their "own" free agents — restricted or unrestricted. That means good-bye to Aaron Moorehead, Ben Utecht, Bryan Fletcher, Mike Seidman, Jake Scott, Dylan Gandy, Josh Thomas, Darrell Reid, Rocky Boiman and Matt Giordano. Bill Polian said so himself.

Actually, I think Polian is, as he often does, overstating the case. Some restructuring and/or a cap casualty or two (Booger McFarland and Rob Morris, valuable as they are, could figure here) could free up enough room to allow the team to retain, in order of import): Giordano, Gandy and/or Utecht. (2)

If it sounds sad, keep in mind that Polian did sign the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year in Bob Sanders, one of the best-catching tight ends in the league in Dallas Clark, a solid veteran starting guard in Ryan Lilja and a serviceable if not exciting backup quarterback in Jim Sorgi. The fact that they were on the roster last year doesn't make them any less valuable. I sometimes think that many fans believe the Colts could have lost them all, signed Ken Hamlin, LJ Smith, Jacob Bell and Josh McCown just for the sake of something to talk about, or the chance to re-sign Gandy, and come out no worse or even better. (3)

It doesn't work that way. Free agency isn't like Christmas morning, it's more like Christmas shopping. You only get what you pay for and have to brave the other shoppers to pay inflated prices for something that you may not want or may not work anyway. The Colts quite correctly put a major emphasis on continuity. Players, especially on offense, who develop a rapport for one another usually perform better, especially in clutch situations. Of course, there are exceptions. You can have a guy like Wes Welker whose show will play anywhere or a guy like Randy Moss who needed to get out of an awful situation so he could blossom elsewhere. But more often than not, as the old saying goes, a free agent hurts the team he leaves more than helps the one he goes to.

So if any new blood is arriving, it'll be from the draft. The Colts traded away their 2008 first-rounder last year for starting left tackle Tony Ugoh (4), but they still have a pick near the end of every other round.

The Colts may be awarded a compensatory draft pick or two, but I tend not to rely too heavily on the kindness of the league for those. They are determined by the difference in free agents lost and free agents gained. The Colts gained Seidman (IR all season), Rick DeMulling (cut), John Navarre (cut) and Craphonso Thorpe (a serviceable depth player, 12-70-1 receiving, 15-318-0 returning kicks and 6-31-0 returning punts). So, basically nothing. (5)

And they lost Cato June (a competent starter, but hardly the star he was with the Colts after injuries and an ill-advised move to strong side hobbled him), Nick Harper (a decent starter who quickly adapted to the Titans' philosophy), Jason David (a nominal starter with the Saints who was benched, but figures to start this year unless they bring in new talent), Dom Rhodes (likely to be cut by the Raiders after a lackluster first season) and Mike Doss (after an injury-plagued first season with the Vikings that saw him record one tackle in eight games, he figures as no better than the team's No. 3 safety). On paper, their case looks good for a pair of picks, but you never know for sure. (6)

No matter how many draft picks they have, their needs would appear to be (in approximate order):

• the best pass-rushing defensive end possible (7)
• a No. 4 receiver with upside who can play in the slot or outside
• an athletic interior lineman who could evolve into a starter
• a tight end with reliable hands, blocking skills would be nice (8)
• an explosive halfback who can catch and pass-block
• a backup middle linebacker who could eventually start
• an athletic quarterback who could also play other offensive skill positions
• speedy players at any position who can tackle and/or block on special teams

More details as I do my positional analyses.

Notes:
1. This one really gets me. I mean, I know Sexy Rexy has fallen on some hard times, but how many former first rounders who have taken their team to the Super Bowl — without a premier back, receiver, tight end or offensive line — would accept a job where he's virtually guaranteed no playing time and a tiny paycheck?
2. Most of the remaining free agents I could easily live without, and Utecht is always in the whirlpool, but why let Giordano go? What has he not done? I realize he's no Sanders, but I don't think it will take Sanders money to keep him. The Colts have Melvin Bullitt and Brandon Condren waiting in the wings, but do you really think either of them could step in when Sanders has his annual injury? Giordano can and has.
3. I love roster turnover too, when the team is bad.
4. A good move, no?
5. Not to dis Cro, but those numbers would not be hard to replicate.
6. If I had to guess, I'd say a fourth and a fifth.
7. If you're looking in draft books, most of the Colts'-style DEs will be listed as OLBs
8. With Utecht and Fletcher apparently cut loose, it looks like Roy Hall is the "starting" H-back. Which puts Clark back at tight end. Oh, I bet Manning and the Colts' backs are looking forward to that! Clark is subpar as a blocker at tight end and Hall is, well, if he stayed at wideout, he wouldn't be the Colts' best blocker there.

Friday, February 22, 2008

Position analysis: Quarterbacks

Starter
Peyton Manning in 2007: 515-337-4040-31-14 passing, 20-(-5)-3 rushing

Backups
Jim Sorgi in 2007: 36-18-132-1-0 passing, 6-(-4)-0 rushing
Josh Betts in 2007: no stats (1)

Free agents
None

Analysis
There's not a lot to say about Manning (6040, 228, 4.87 in 1998) that hasn't already been said, written, memorized and become legend. But let's run it down briefly anyway:

• He is, if not the best quarterback in the NFL, no worse than second
• His quick release and uncanny improvisational skills prevent bad things from happening to the team and himself
• He has missed one single snap due to injury 160 regular-season and 14 playoff games — and that was for a broken frickin' jaw
• He makes players around him better; and not in the hoary old cliché way — he actually forces players to be more disciplined and better prepared
• He's not going to get into trouble with drugs or violence or anything like that
• He is likely to play for the Colts for as long as he can.

So, let's move onto the other guys. Maytag repairman jokes aside, I'm not a big Sorgi guy, never have been, but the Colts have decided that a cap-friendly caretaker is what they want behind Manning. Sorgi (6033/207/4.68 in 2004) is smart enough, knows the offense like the back of his hand and has a good rapport with many of the team's skill players, especially the backups. The flipside of that is that he doesn't put much zip on the ball, takes too long to get rid of it, locks onto his favorite targets and is not very good at avoiding even a modest rush. He can play decently in short stretches, but if the Colts are depending on him, they're in big trouble.

Betts (6013, 215, 4.89 in 2006) is pretty much the opposite of Sorgi. He's a hard-throwing gunslinger who stands tall in the pocket and will deliver the bomb with aplomb. But, he throws into coverage, lacks real improvisation skill or elusivness. He's one of those tools guys, who still needs to learn the NFL game. Since the Colts appear confident keeping just two quarterbacks, Betts only chances of sticking around would be an injury to Sorgi or a really, really great preseason.

What I'd do
In all likelihood, the Colts will go with just Sorgi behind Manning and keep Betts' number on speed dial just in case.

But, as I do every year, I am suggesting the Colts draft a quarterback. Really. Of course, I'd only recommend it be a late second-day pick.(2) I want the Colts to get an athletic, explosive No. 3 guy for a couple of reasons.

The first is that the team is vulnerable to athletic, running quarterbacks and will be playing against Vince Young at least twice a year for what looks like a long, long time. Practicing against that type of player could be a great help.

And the Colts have a very complicated offense that requires intelligent, versatile players. By their nature, college quarterbacks usually have a much better understanding of offenses and know the necessities of all skill positions. An explosive athlete who could line up wide, in the slot, at halfback, at H-back or even as a trick-play quarterback or kick holder, could be a huge boon. If he can help out on special teams, all the better.

There are some great options at the position, like San Diego's Josh Johnson and Oregon's Dennis Dixon, but they will be gone on the first day (3). People will recommend Marshall's Bernard Morris, but he doesn't have the footspeed or athleticism to play any other position, and his big arm will be too tempting for teams to try to play him elsewhere.

A better bet would be someone like Southern Mississippi's Jeremy Young, Lehigh's Sedale Threatt or West Virginia's Adam Bednarik. They are all solid athletes with good speed, intelligence and team-first attitudes.

(1) In the 2007 preseason, Betts went 55-33-356-3-4, but showed some ability to move things.
(2) Okay, more likely a priority undrafted free agent signing
(3) As long as Dixon's healthy enough, otherwise he could be a Ben Utecht-like bargain

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Some doin's a-transpirin'

The Colts made a couple of roster moves, but I'm still bogged down with paying assignments, so we're going to have to go short-form.

• Colts re-sign Dallas Clark: Boy, he didn't wear that franchise tag long. Since this move was expected, it doesn't make too much difference in the Colts' plans. But it's nice to know the Colts have the man in the fold and that his deal will free up some cap room.

• Colts re-sign Ryan Lilja: Both of last year's starting guards were unrestricted free agents, and it appears the team has chosen Lilja over his partner, Jake Scott. Scott could still re-sign, as he's not they type of guard (or tackle) most teams prize and Colts free agents (especially offensive linemen) have a reputation as system players. Should Scott not re-sign, the Colts have veteran back-up Dylan Gandy ready to step in. He would be the nominal starter heading into camp, but could be displaced by a draft pick.

Sunday, February 17, 2008

What, him again?

For the third year in a row, the Colts have signed Shane Andrus. Do you need a scouting report on him? If you can live with a Cliffs Notes version — big leg, can't really be relied upon for field goals.

Thursday, February 14, 2008

How 'bout a depth chart (free agents removed*)?


Or, dare I say it, hello, Gijon! And who the hell are those guards?

QB

18 Manning, Peyton QB 6-5 230 11 Tennessee D1-98
12 Sorgi, Jim QB 6-5 196 5 Wisconsin D6b-04
-- Betts, Josh QB 6-2 217 1 Miami-Ohio FA-07
RB
29 Addai, Joseph RB 5-11 214 3 LSU D1-06
36 Keith, Kenton RB 5-11 210 2 New Mexico St. FA-07
45 Lawton, Luke RB 6-0 240 2 McNeese State FA-07
30 Dawson, Clifton RB 5-10 212 2 Harvard FA-07
-- Hairston, Justise RB 6-2 220 1 Central Conn St. FA-07
WR
88 Harrison, Marvin WR 6-0 185 13 Syracuse D1-96
87 Wayne, Reggie WR 6-0 198 8 Miami (Florida) D1b-01
11 Gonzalez, Anthony WR 6-0 193 2 Ohio State D1-07
15 Thorpe, Craphonso WR 6-0 187 2 Florida State FA-07
80 Aromashodu, Devin WR 6-2 200 2 Auburn FA-07
83 Hall, Roy WR 6-3 240 2 Ohio State D5a-07
-- Shelton, Trent WR 6-0 202 1 Baylor FA-07
-- Jones, Onrea WR 5-11 202 1 Hampton FA-07
-- Roby, Courtney WR 6-0 189 3 Indiana FA-07
TE
-- Robinson, Gijon TE 6-1 255 1 Missouri W. St. FA-07
-- Herold, Zac TE 6-5 253 1 Nebraska-Omaha FA-07
T
67 Ugoh, Tony T 6-5 301 2 Arkansas D2a-07
71 Diem, Ryan T 6-6 320 8 Northern Illinois D4-01
74 Johnson, Charlie T 6-4 305 3 Oklahoma State D6a-06
76 Federkeil, Daniel T 6-6 290 3 Calgary FA-06
75 Toudouze, Michael T 6-6 303 1 TCU FA-07
72 Hilliard, Corey T 6-6 300 1 Oklahoma State FA-07
G
-- Elgin, Mike G 6-3 282 1 Iowa FA-07
-- Esera, Tala G 6-3 312 1 Hawaii FA-07
C
63 Saturday, Jeff C 6-2 295 10 North Carolina FA-99
-- Ross, Patrick C 6-3 305 1 Boston College FA-07
DE
93 Freeney, Dwight DE 6-1 268 7 Syracuse D1-02
98 Mathis, Robert DE 6-2 245 6 Alabama A&M D5a-03
60 Charleston, Jeff DE 6-4 265 2 Idaho State FA-07
96 Dawson, Keyunta DE 6-3 254 2 Texas Tech D7-07
-- Ishola, Ben DE 6-3 248 1 Indiana FA-07
-- Milan, J.J. DE 6-5 269 1 Nevada FA-07
DT
79 Brock, Raheem DT 6-4 274 7 Temple FA-02
92 McFarland, Anthony DT 6-0 300 10 LSU TR-06 (TB)
99 Johnson, Ed DT 6-2 296 2 Penn State FA-07
97 Pitcock, Quinn DT 6-2 299 2 Ohio State D3b-07
-- Bradley, Joe DT 6-4 265 1 La-Lafayette W-07
OLB
54 Keiaho, Freddy LB 5-11 226 3 San Diego State D3-06
94 Morris, Rob LB 6-2 243 9 Brigham Young D1-00
56 Hagler, Tyjuan LB 6-0 236 3 Cincinnati D5c-05
55 Session, Clint LB 6-0 235 2 Pittsburgh D4c-07
52 Guzman, Ramon LB 6-2 232 2 Buffalo FA-07
Nande, Terna LB 6-0 232 1 Miami (Ohio) FA-07
ILB
58 Brackett, Gary LB 5-11 235 6 Rutgers FA-03
51 Worsley, Victor LB 6-1 234 2 North Carolina FA-07
Shotwell, Kyle LB 6-1 235 1 Cal-Poly FA-07
CB
28 Jackson, Marlin CB 6-0 196 4 Michigan D1-05
26 Hayden, Kelvin CB 6-0 195 4 Illinois D2-05
23 Jennings, Tim CB 5-8 185 3 Georgia D2-06
20 Hughes, Dante CB 5-10 190 2 California D3a-07
34 Rushing, T.J. CB 5-9 186 3 Stanford FA-06
25 Coe, Michael CB 6-0 190 2 Alabama State D5b-07
35 Ratliff, Keiwan CB 5-11 188 5 Florida W-07 (TB) -
S
21 Sanders, Bob S 5-8 206 5 Iowa D2b-04
41 Bethea, Antoine S 5-11 203 3 Howard D6b-06
33 Bullitt, Melvin S 6-1 201 2 Texas A&M FA-07
42 Condren, Brannon S 6-1 205 2 Troy D4b-07
37 Smith, Antonio S 5-9 192 1 Ohio State FA-07
K
4 Vinatieri, Adam K 6-0 202 13 South Dakota St. UFA-06 (NE)
P
17 Smith, Hunter P 6-2 209 10 Notre Dame D7a-99
-- Stanley, Chad P 6-3 205 9 Stephen F. Austin FA-07
LS
48 Snow, Justin LS 6-3 240 9 Baylor FA-00

*no, I do not count ERFAs, never did, never will

How 'bout a depth chart?

QB
18 Manning, Peyton QB 6-5 230 11 Tennessee D1-98
12 Sorgi, Jim QB 6-5 196 5 Wisconsin D6b-04
-- Betts, Josh QB 6-2 217 1 Miami-Ohio FA-07
RB
29 Addai, Joseph RB 5-11 214 3 LSU D1-06
36 Keith, Kenton RB 5-11 210 2 New Mexico St. FA-07
45 Lawton, Luke RB 6-0 240 2 McNeese State FA-07
30 Dawson, Clifton RB 5-10 212 2 Harvard FA-07
-- Hairston, Justise RB 6-2 220 1 Central Conn St. FA-07
WR
88 Harrison, Marvin WR 6-0 185 13 Syracuse D1-96
87 Wayne, Reggie WR 6-0 198 8 Miami (Florida) D1b-01
11 Gonzalez, Anthony WR 6-0 193 2 Ohio State D1-07
15 Thorpe, Craphonso WR 6-0 187 2 Florida State FA-07
80 Aromashodu, Devin WR 6-2 200 2 Auburn FA-07
83 Hall, Roy WR 6-3 240 2 Ohio State D5a-07
85 Moorehead, Aaron (UFA) WR 6-3 200 6 Illinois FA-03
-- Shelton, Trent WR 6-0 202 1 Baylor FA-07
-- Jones, Onrea WR 5-11 202 1 Hampton FA-07
-- Roby, Courtney WR 6-0 189 3 Indiana FA-07
TE
44 Clark, Dallas (UFA) TE 6-3 252 6 Iowa D1-03
86 Utecht, Ben (RFA) TE 6-6 251 5 Minnesota FA-04
81 Fletcher, Bryan (RFA) TE 6-5 230 4 UCLA FA-05
42 Seidman, Mike (UFA) TE 6-4 261 6 UCLA UFA-07 (CAR)
-- Robinson, Gijon TE 6-1 255 1 Missouri W. St. FA-07
-- Herold, Zac TE 6-5 253 1 Nebraska-Omaha FA-07
T
67 Ugoh, Tony T 6-5 301 2 Arkansas D2a-07
71 Diem, Ryan T 6-6 320 8 Northern Illinois D4-01
74 Johnson, Charlie T 6-4 305 3 Oklahoma State D6a-06
76 Federkeil, Daniel T 6-6 290 3 Calgary FA-06
75 Toudouze, Michael T 6-6 303 1 TCU FA-07
72 Hilliard, Corey T 6-6 300 1 Oklahoma State FA-07 -
G
65 Lilja, Ryan (UFA) G 6-2 290 5 Kansas State W-04 (KC)
73 Scott, Jake (UFA) G 6-5 295 5 Idaho D5a-04
57 Gandy, Dylan (RFA) G 6-3 302 4 Texas Tech D4a-05
-- Elgin, Mike G 6-3 282 1 Iowa FA-07
-- Esera, Tala G 6-3 312 1 Hawaii FA-07
C
63 Saturday, Jeff C 6-2 295 10 North Carolina FA-99
-- Ross, Patrick C 6-3 305 1 Boston College FA-07
DE
93 Freeney, Dwight DE 6-1 268 7 Syracuse D1-02
98 Mathis, Robert DE 6-2 245 6 Alabama A&M D5a-03
91 Thomas, Josh (UFA) DE 6-5 271 5 Syracuse FA-04
60 Charleston, Jeff DE 6-4 265 2 Idaho State FA-07
96 Dawson, Keyunta DE 6-3 254 2 Texas Tech D7-07
-- Ishola, Ben DE 6-3 248 1 Indiana FA-07
-- Milan, J.J. DE 6-5 269 1 Nevada FA-07
DT
79 Brock, Raheem DT 6-4 274 7 Temple FA-02
92 McFarland, Anthony DT 6-0 300 10 LSU TR-06 (TB)
99 Johnson, Ed DT 6-2 296 2 Penn State FA-07
97 Pitcock, Quinn DT 6-2 299 2 Ohio State D3b-07
95 Reid, Darrell (RFA) DT 6-2 288 4 Minnesota FA-05
90 Klecko, Dan (UFA) DT 5-11 275 6 Temple W-06 (NE)
-- Bradley, Joe DT 6-4 265 1 La-Lafayette W-07
OLB
54 Keiaho, Freddy LB 5-11 226 3 San Diego State D3-06
94 Morris, Rob LB 6-2 243 9 Brigham Young D1-00
56 Hagler, Tyjuan LB 6-0 236 3 Cincinnati D5c-05
50 Boiman, Rocky (UFA) LB 6-4 236 7 Notre Dame FA-06
55 Session, Clint LB 6-0 235 2 Pittsburgh D4c-07
52 Guzman, Ramon LB 6-2 232 2 Buffalo FA-07
Nande, Terna LB 6-0 232 1 Miami (Ohio) FA-07
ILB
58 Brackett, Gary LB 5-11 235 6 Rutgers FA-03
51 Worsley, Victor LB 6-1 234 2 North Carolina FA-07
Shotwell, Kyle LB 6-1 235 1 Cal-Poly FA-07
CB
28 Jackson, Marlin CB 6-0 196 4 Michigan D1-05
26 Hayden, Kelvin CB 6-0 195 4 Illinois D2-05
23 Jennings, Tim CB 5-8 185 3 Georgia D2-06
20 Hughes, Dante CB 5-10 190 2 California D3a-07
34 Rushing, T.J. CB 5-9 186 3 Stanford FA-06
25 Coe, Michael CB 6-0 190 2 Alabama State D5b-07
35 Ratliff, Keiwan CB 5-11 188 5 Florida W-07 (TB) -
S
21 Sanders, Bob S 5-8 206 5 Iowa D2b-04
41 Bethea, Antoine S 5-11 203 3 Howard D6b-06
43 Giordano, Matt (RFA) S 5-11 200 4 California D4b-05
33 Bullitt, Melvin S 6-1 201 2 Texas A&M FA-07
42 Condren, Brannon S 6-1 205 2 Troy D4b-07
37 Smith, Antonio S 5-9 192 1 Ohio State FA-07
K
4 Vinatieri, Adam K 6-0 202 13 South Dakota St. UFA-06 (NE)
P
17 Smith, Hunter P 6-2 209 10 Notre Dame D7a-99
-- Stanley, Chad P 6-3 205 9 Stephen F. Austin FA-07
LS
48 Snow, Justin LS 6-3 240 9 Baylor FA-00

Monday, February 11, 2008

Reserve tight ends, get 'em while they're healthy! Part the third (and final)

Mike Seidman
2007 stats: None
Combine numbers: 6044, 261, 4.80 in 2003
Who's he: Just like Ben Utecht and Bryan Fletcher, Westlake, Calif., native Seidman was a three-sport star in high school. He went to nearby UCLA where he was a year behind Fletcher, but starting playing on offense almost immediately. After Fletcher left, Seidman exploded as an offensive force, catching 41-631-5 as a senior. He was first-team All-Pac-10, UCLA Offensive MVP and a finalist for the John Mackey award. In 46 games (14 starts), he caught 61-989-6. Although he was productive, concerns about his lack of deep speed and explosiveness led to him being drafted in the third round of the 2003 draft by the Carolina Panthers. As rookie, he started five games, but was mainly used as a blocker until a torn ACL felled him in game 12. Seidman came back in 2004, started six games and was finally given a chance to catch the ball. He caught 13-123-3 — including a spectacular falling-down endzone catch against the Bucs — and a two-point convert. He found himself fighting for a spot on the left side of the depth chart in 2005, playing mainly as a blocker, and tore his ACL again in 2006. After the Panthers released him in 2007, the Colts took a flier on him, but he suffered yet another knee injury in camp, and was placed on injured reserve. In his NFL career, Seidman has played 43 of 80 possible regular-season games (starting 15), catching 18-158-2 and returning four kicks for 44 yards.
As a player: Unlike Clark, Utecht and Fletcher — who are really just big wideouts in tight end drag (1) — Seidman is an old-skool complete tight end. And a good one. When he came out of UCLA in 2003, the top tight ends in the draft were Clark, Jason Witten, Bennie Joppru (2) and Seidman, with much of the media placing Seidman at or near the top of the stack. There's little wonder why. While his receiving production stacked up well against the others', Seidman looked like John Hannah or Anthony Muñoz (3) compared to others a blocker. A smart and aware receiver who will adjust to poor throws and catch the ball in stride, Seidman runs good routes, but lacks the explosive burst to lose defenders and doesn't have deep speed. Actually, all of the verbs in the last few sentences should be in past tense. Seidman was all those things, but three season-ending knee injuries in five years have likely robbed him of much of his former ability.

Analysis: I think everyone but Seidman's mom realizes he's probably done. Colts fans can safely assume he's not going to be back next year. With the Colts almost certain to retain Clark at a great cost, keeping both Utecht and Fletcher might be a bit difficult.(4) While the Colts don't like to devote too much money under the cap at any one position, they do like to keep their offensive components (5) together and to keep as many reliable targets for Manning as possible. Should they only be able to afford one, the decision would be difficult. While some would argue, Utecht is clearly a better player. Not only does he block better — he was, after all the Colts' starting tight end last season while Fletcher normally played H-back or in the slot — but he's also a better receiver. He caught 83.78 percent of passes thrown his way last year (Fletcher caught 59.26 percent), he averaged 11.74 yards per catch (7.94 for Fletcher, despite usually running longer routes) and 5.58 yards after the catch (2.67 for Fletcher). The equalizer in this equation, though, is that Utecht is far more prone to injury than Fletcher and the chances of the Colts signing one just to lose their investment to injury is much greater with Utecht. More likely, however, is that the Colts keep both on one-year tenders — much like they did guards Ryan Lilja and Jake Scott last year when both of them were restricted free agents — and defer the decision on which to keep another year. Because of Fletcher's limitations as a blocker and Utecht's history of injury, neither is likely to get a huge outside offer, forcing the Colts to match (6). But even if both remain Colts for 2008, expect the team to draft a tight end with some receiving ability to undergo a one-year indoctrination. A smart kid with big mitts like Pittsburgh's Darrell Strong — who could be a second-day pick — could easily succeed in Indy. What? No mention of Roy Hall? I'll save that for a later post.

Notes:
1. I know I go on and on about this, but I really think people have the wrong idea here. To set things straight — Clark is not the Colts' starting tight end, Utecht is. Clark may be the tight end again the future, but he isn't now. Don't believe me? Check out Football Outsiders, a scouting service that examines every single NFL play in depth. They list Clark as a wide receiver because he played the overwhelming majority of his snaps either at slot or split wide. He's been playing as much tight end these days as Marvin does. By the way, Football Outsiders gave Utecht a 30.4 DVOA (a measure of how much better over the average tight end he was on a play-by-play basis), and Fletcher a -7.4 — that means Utecht was way better and Fletcher was a tad worse than the average Joe at the position in 2007.
2. Poor Joppru. Kid had all the talent in the world, but injuries have limited him to 19 of 80 possible regular-season games and a grand total of zero catches. You think Seidman had it bad? At least he scored a couple of NFL touchdowns.
3. Am I dating myself? Anyone out there remember those guys? Man, Hannah could hurt you.
4. Further complicating things is the fact that with Reggie Wayne, Harrison and Anthony Gonzalez on hand, the Colts will most likely expect Clark to play tight end more often. That will leave fewer snaps for Utecht and Fletcher to share.
5. They tend to be a bit more relaxed with defensive players, especially linebackers— as the Washington-Peterson-Thornton-June-Gardner-Keiaho shuffle indicates.
6. The Colts have some advantages in free agency. Not only do players, especially those on offense, want to play in Indy, but there's a feeling around the league that ex-Colts tend to do poorly once they leave Indy.

Wednesday, February 6, 2008

Reserve tight ends, get 'em while they're healthy! Part the second

Bryan Fletcher
2007 stats:
18-143-0 receiving
Combine numbers: 6047, 238, 4.87 in 2002
Who's he: Terrell Fletcher's little brother was a pretty good athlete in his own right at high school in St. Louis. A tight end and linebacker, Bryan was also the starting center on the school's basketball team. As a freshman at UCLA , he played mainly on special teams before moving into a share of the starting tight end position as a sophomore. He continued to play specials despite being a part-time starter on offense. As a senior, he made All-Pac-10 second team and won UCLA's Best Leadership Award, despite the school's star-studded lineup. In 43 games (14 starts), Fletcher caught 30-423-3. Disappointing combine numbers led to Fletcher having to wait until the sixth round to hear his name called in the 2002 draft when he was selected by the Bears. He was cut in training and bounced around the league (including a successful stint in NFL Europe) before landing on the Colts' practice squad in 2004. He made the final roster in 2005 and started 12 games as injuries struck the receiving corps and the Colts played two tight end formations extensively. In his three-year tenure with the Colts, Fletcher has played 41 of 48 possible regular-season games (18 starts) and caught 54-547-5, while playing primarily at H-back, but also fullback, tight end, slot receiver and wide receiver.
As a player: Fletcher is a hybrid. Depending on your perspective, he's either a very tall, somewhat slow wide receiver or a very skinny tight end — or both. Well, mostly he's a receiver no matter what position he plays. Fletcher has good, not great, hands and excels at the other elements of receiving, including route-running, using his agility and adjusting to help his quarterback. Although he plays faster than he times, Fletcher isn't really a deep threat, but he can be a good intermediate receiver who can be deadly in the red zone where his height is a big plus. As a blocker, he's a lot more wide receiver than tight end. Not surprisingly, he's much better on the move than he is inline. Of course, Fletcher starts pretty well every play in motion or in the backfield, so it's not a huge problem. Niggling injuries have troubled him throughout his career, but not terribly so.

Monday, February 4, 2008

Reserve tight ends, get 'em while they're healthy! Part the first

Throughout the Bill Polian era, the Colts have usually had an embarrassment of riches when it has come to tight end depth. That's not too surprising, as the Colts play single-back formations more than any other team; and, when they do have a second back in there, it's often a tight end motioned in to play fullback. Colt tight ends can also be spotted shifting to the slot or even splitting wide. Not surprisingly, the Colts prize versatility at the position and expect a lot from whoever they sign.

But the Colts this year have (in order of importance): unrestricted free agent Dallas Clark, restricted free agents Ben Utecht and Bryan Fletcher, unrestricted free agent Mike Seidman and two other dudes (1). Clearly, decisions will have to be made, and quickly. No one will be surprised if the first is that Clark will be re-signed, even if it requires a franchise tag. While that takes care of one spot, it leaves a lot less money under the cap to deal with the others.

Coltplay will take a quick look at the in-house options, with an overall analysis to follow. We'll start with Utecht, because he's the established tight end-in-waiting after Clark, who was discussed in an earlier post.

Ben Utecht
2007 stats: 31-364-1 receiving
Combine numbers: 6061, 249, 4.80 in 2004
Who's he: You want versatile? Take look at Utecht. At high school in Hastings, Minn., he was a great punter and defensive end, the hockey team's goalie (2), a top long jumper, a member of the National Honor Society and the school's most recognized artist as an award-winning singer and guitar player. He went to the University of Minnesota as a wide receiver, but when the coaches looked at him in his redshirt 1999 season, they switched him to tight end. Utecht used his excellent hands and deceptive speed to become a major offensive weapon for the Golden Gophers, catching 83-1211-15 in 44 games (35 starts). As a senior, he was a finalist for the 2004 John Mackey Award, but lost to Miami's Kellen Winslow, who became a first-round pick by the Browns. The media consensus after his senior season was that Utecht would be a third-round pick, but a terrible hernia injury kept him from being selected. The Colts won a minor bidding war for his services as an undrafted free agent and they promptly put him on the Physically Unable to Perform list. He missed the entire 2004 regular season, but made a few brief appearances in the playoffs. He play sparingly in 2005 as a reserve tight end, but his first two catches (a 26-yarder against the Ravens on Sept. 11 and a 14-yarder against the Jaguars the following week) were both acrobatic touchdowns, giving fans an impression of his abilities. When starting tight end Clark was called on for slot duty in 2006 (3), Utecht took over at his old position and flourished, playing tight end, H-back, fullback and even wide receiver. In 40 of 64 possible regular-season games (30 starts) with the Colts, Utecht has caught 71-800-3 and returned one kick for seven yards.
As a player: With the Golden Gophers, Utecht was a feared weapon, regularly splitting the middle to freak out unsuspecting safeties or embarrassing linebackers with razor-sharp cuts and surprising burst. But you won't see him do that often with the Colts. That's not his job in Indy. Although Utecht plays much faster than his 4.80 combine time, he's not the deep threat Clark is, and must be satisfied with the short patterns, blitz hot reads and endless blocking a tight end/fullback has to put up with. If you're reading this and you're not a Colts fan, the Clark-Utecht situation is roughly analogous to how Chris Cooley and Mike Sellers (4) divide up opportunities in Washington. Utecht is the reliable second banana, running the dump-off routes, using his awareness to recognize when his quarterback is in trouble and adjusting his routes and throwing his shoulders into more and more blocking. There are good and bad sides to this. Utecht is blessed with extraordinary hands and concentration and usually comes down with what he went up for. He'll fight for every reception and won't be easily outwrestled. Utecht is very good at adjusting to the ball and is aware enough to change routes when need be, understanding not just how to counter a blitz with a hot read, but where the first-down marker is. He runs precise routes and can be moderately creative after the catch. That said, he isn't very fast and will be caught from behind. And, for a big guy, he can be bumped off his route fairly easily. Which brings up his blocking. As an inline blocker, Utecht uses good leverage and has decent footwork, but shows minimal power. While he can lay a blow on the move, he's really more of a wall-off guy at this level. No conversation about Utecht would be complete, however, without mentioning his durability. Not including his lost rookie season, Utecht has missed eight regular-season games due to injury and played hurt in many others. Critics have said that Tom Moore's offensive system exposes the tight end to more than his fair share of hits, but those frequent ailments have to be taken into account when assessing Utecht's value in Indy. For example, Utecht is a very good long snapper, but you won't see the Colts try him at the position because they don't want to jeopardize his time on offense.

Notes:
1. Actually Gijon Robinson and Zac Herold. Robinson is a stumpy fullback type, who can catch the ball, but needs to learn how to play tight end (ie. block). Herold's a small-school phenom who has all the tools and very little idea of what to do with them.
2. Very meaningful in Minnesota, ya.
3. See, in 2005, the Colts had the best slot receiver ever in Brandon Stokley, but when he was injured the following year the team needed a replacement. They first tried wideout Aaron Moorehead, but he was awful. They moved Clark (who really is something else as a receiver) to slot and plugged Utecht in at tight end. The Clark/Utecht pairing wasn't quite as good as Stokley/Clark, but it was effective, light years better than Moorehead/Clark. The Colts thought they had found the slot man they needed in 2007 when they drafted Ohio State's Anthony Gonzalez in the first round, but when Marvin Harrison got hurt just as Gonzalez had adjusted to the NFL game, the Colts found themselves leaning heavily on Clark and Utecht once again.
4. Two players who have impressed me time and time again. The addition of either would upgrade any NFL team.