Thursday, December 31, 2009

Review/Preview


REVIEW

A lot has been made of the decision to pull Peyton Manning for Curtis Painter, including here. So let’s look at who else played, and/or was rested in that period instead.

For all 17 of Painter’s offensive plays, the entire starting offensive line was out there with him. The wide receivers were Austin Collie and Hank Baskett for every play. They played two tight ends for 16 of the 17 plays. Gijon Robinson was there for the first seven, blocking once and being pulled for the fourth quarter. Jacob Tamme came in with 1:22 left in the third, and played the rest of the way. In his 13 snaps, he lined up as a tight end once, and in the slot 12 times. Tom Santi came out when Tamme went in and – one three-and-out series later – came back in to replace Robinson. While playing with Painter, he saw 12 snaps at tight end (staying in to “block” twice), and one in the slot. Donald Brown was the halfback on every one of Painter’s plays, spending nine of his 17 plays as a pass-blocker. Chad Simpson joined him once on 3rd-and-4 in a split-back set.

We’ve already discussed how tragic Painter was, so let’s move on. Halfback Joseph Addai looked magnificent on his 21-yard touchdown run, squirting through a tiny hole, accelerating past the defenders and finally muscling his way into the end zone. It was a highlight worthy of great praise. He didn’t do much other than that, but I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt because a halfback needs to develop a rhythm and Addai only played 16 plays, all in the first half (including one where he went into motion, ending up split wide left).

His replacement, rookie Donald Brown, didn’t put up great numbers on his first game back from injury, but looked smart and creative. The Jets stacked the line when Painter was in there and blitzed like mad, so that kind of hurt Brown’s chances. The knock against Brown was supposed to be as a pass-protector, but I thought he did a great job in the face of frequent blitzes.

Of the receivers, Reggie Wayne started and had his hands full with the Jets’ awesome corner Darrelle Revis. But Reggie will always find a way, catching 3-33-0 before leaving the game prior to the Painter era. Collie put in another great performance with 6-94-0 (on seven throws to him), finding great success against veteran Lito Sheppard. Collie started at injured Pierre Garcon’s spot outside and seemed just as comfortable there as he does in the slot. Baskett came in to replace Wayne and caught both passes thrown his way (one from each quarterback) for 16 yards, but seemed to have a hard time getting open. None of the receivers looked good as blockers.

As mentioned, a number of players appeared at tight end. Dallas Clark was having a typical day for him – 4-57-0 of seven passes thrown his way with one drop – before he was pulled for the Painter crew. The others did little as receivers – combining for 2-24-0 on eight throws with one drop – but a good deal of that can be attributed to Painter. Tamme, in particular, looked bad. None were much help as run blockers, and Santi (one sack allowed in two pass blocking opportunities) and Robinson (three pressures allowed in 15 pass blocking opportunities) were liabilities in protecting the passers.

The starting line – with Tony Ugoh filling in for the injured Charlie Johnson at left tackle – played the entire game and were … pretty good. The Jets are extremely hard to run against, and the Colts line did little to change that. But all of them did a nice job in pass-pro, even though Painter’s pocket presence made their job a lot more difficult than they’re used to. Ugoh, in particular, looked very good. What little pass rush the Jets managed came from blitzes. The two sacks came when Santi was handled by Calvin Pace and when Donald Strickland came on a delayed blitz untouched and unnoticed by Painter who was holding the ball for a luxurious amount of time.

Oh, and this week’s winner of fullback roulette? Eric Foster, with two plays.

As many backups played on offense, even more showed up on defense. For most of the fourth quarter, the defensive line was (from left to right): Eric Foster, Fili Moala, John Gill and Ervin Baldwin. Dwight Freeney was in for one fourth-quarter play (a 3rd-and-10). The linebackers were (from left to right) Philip Wheeler, Freddie Keiaho and Ramon Humber. Wheeler’s the normal starter and Humber started for injured Clint Session, while Keiaho subbed for starter Gary Brackett, who was taken out like Manning, Clark, Wayne and Addai. The secondary generally consisted of starters Kelvin Hayden and Jacob Lacey (in for injured Jerraud Powers), but the safeties were Aaron Francisco (who started the game for injured starter Melvin Bullitt) and Jamie Silva, who came in when Antoine Bethea was brought in for a rest.

Despite the parade of so-so players, the Colts defense played fairly well. In fact, of the Jets’ three touchdowns, one was scored against the offense and one against special teams.

Aside from Freeney, who had two sacks on just nine pass rushes, the Colts didn’t pressure Sanchez much. Foster and Raheem Brock – who started at left end for injured Robert Mathis, and played his best game this year – got close sometimes, but no other Colt added much. Jets left guard Alan Faneca – who I dissed in a previous post – handled Colts tackle Daniel Muir quite well. Foster and Antonio “Mookie” Johnson stood fairly strong against the run, but none of the other D-linemen did anything of merit. Moala looked awful; he was pushed off the ball by Jets guard Brandon Moore with annoying consistently. It’s still far too early to call Moala a bust, but the early results do not look pretty at all.

Humber played the whole game, and looked a little overmatched, but not terrible. I still say he’s much better off inside. Middle starter Brackett was very good, especially in coverage, and his replacement, Keiaho, didn’t embarrass himself. Wheeler did not look good, but I’m getting used to that.

The Colts’ corners played their usual game, leaving a fairly big cushion and closing in after the ball has been thrown. Hayden looked rusty, allowing a number of short completions to Jerricho Cotchery. It was heartbreaking to see the refs negate his first-quarter interception with an iffy illegal contact penalty. Lacey was mostly matched against Braylon Edwards, and – despite having a hard time with big wideouts and giving up five inches and 38 pounds – did an okay job. Similarly, Jennings looked good in coverage, with a nice swat on a Sanchez pass to Edwards on 3rd-and-4.

I’m surprised the Jets didn’t target Francisco and Silva more than they did. Francisco – who has been a disaster in coverage for a few seasons now – was not a problem last Sunday. Silva and Bethea were non-factors in coverage, but Silva looked quite good against the run.

Pat McAfee wowed me again both as a kickoff man and a punter (though he owes a small debt to Jennings for a nice punt downing at the Jets’ 5). It was nice to see Adam Vinatieri return, and he didn’t look rusty.

Chad Simpson had another good day as a kick returner, but TJ Rushing did nothing as a punt returner.

The Colts looked awful on kick coverage. On Brad Smith’s 106-yard score, Humber and Robinson were totally burned. Jennings showed great speed and effort getting to him at the 5 from the other side of the field, but also showed he took the wrong angle. And basically the same group allowed Cotchery 2-28 on punt returns.

PREVIEW

The Bills are a pretty bad team, worse than their 5-10 record would indicate. Not only were they a no better than average team heading into the season, but they actually have 19 players on injured reserve, including nine starters and one of their two Pro Bowlers. But depending on which Colts team is on the field, the Bills could actually eke out a win.

Bills fans were whining about quarterback Trent Edwards. But when he went down and career backup Ryan Fitzpatrick took over, they were no better. And now they are down to Brian Brohm. Whut oh.

But it’s not the passers’ fault, or the receivers’, or the backs’. It’s the line. Before the season, the Bills tried to overhaul their O-line (cutting a lot of salary), and it backfired. The best of the new lot – starting right tackle Brad Badger – was out for the season after a week 2 injury. He was replaced by journeyman Kirk Chambers, who has been terrible. The situation is worse on the left side where Demetrious Bell – though a great guy – was just not up to snuff. In eight starts, he gave up 5 sacks, 7 QB hits and 18 pressures to go along with 12 penalties – and he was precious little better as a run blocker. After a season-ending injury, he was replaced by former Lions reserve – Lions reserve! – Jonathan Scott. In 10 games (eight starts, including two at right tackle), he’s allowed 7 sacks, 1 hit and 13 pressures with six penalties and no discernable push in the run game. Things are just about as bad at guard. The plan was to start rookies Andy Levitre and Erik Wood. Although both will be good NFL players, both have been overmatched as NFL starters. Well, Wood was okay until he got hurt, and Levitre is passable in pass-pro, but an atrocity in the run game. Interestingly, he started two emergency games at left tackle and did okay. With Wood out, the Bills turned to ancient Kendall Simmons then gave the job to Richie Incognito. You know him, he was cut by the Rams – the Rams! – for being a butthead. At least only one guy, Geoff Hangartner, has played center for the Bills this year. And he’s been awful.

Buffalo has talented but not-all-that-productive-at-least-this-year ends in Aaron Schobel, Chris Kelsay and Ryan Denney. First-round draft pick Aaron Maybin is also there, but hasn’t done anything yet. Inside, highly paid Marcus Stroud has been awful and meagerly paid Kyle Williams has been very, very good.

Despite an inconsistent D-line and a depressing offense, middle linebacker Paul Posluszny has put in a Pro Bowl-quality season. Opening day starters on the outside, Keith Ellison and Kawika Mitchell, are both on injured reserve. Their replacements – converted safety Bryan Scott and ancient Chris Draft – have actually played decently in their absence.

Injuries have decimated the secondary too, as starting corners Terrence McGee and Leodis McKelvin were recently joined on injured reserve by Pro Bowl rookie safety Jairus Byrd. The current corners – Drayton Florence, Reggie Corner and Ashton Youboty – aren’t really very good. Strong safety George Wilson has been very solid. Byrd’s replacement, Donte Whitner has been okay in coverage, but a non-factor against the run and has had problems with penalties.

The Bills special teams are pretty good, with Roscoe Parrish a home run threat as a returner.

In a normal situation, the Colts would steamroll these guys. But if Painter is behind center, throwing to Tamme, all bets are off.

NEWS

There was some juggling, but the upshot is that with Anthony Gonzalez on injured reserve, Sam Giguere was promoted to the active roster and safety/linebacker De’Von Hall was cut. Quarterback Drew Willy was sent back to the practice squad and John Matthews took Giguere’s spot. I know Giguere is a great athlete, but I don’t know that he’s a great talent. Should be interesting to see how much playing time he gets this week.

The one new face on the practice squad is linebacker Brandon Renkart (6026/236/4.59pd). A high school quarterback at Piscataway, N.J., he stayed in state and played at Brackett’s old spot for Rutgers. Considered undersized and not explosive, Renkart is smart and tough and had a knack for big plays in college. Undrafted in 2008, he signed with the local Jets, but was cut. He spent some time on Arizona’s practice squad and is now in what appears to be a more appropriate situation in Indy. Does he have a future? I don’t know. The Colts have done more with less, so he at least bears watching.

Wednesday, December 30, 2009

I'm in Miami, Trick (Well, Not Yet)


Every year, there’s a lot of grumbling from fans about who makes the Pro Bowl. A lot of that comes from plain ol’ partisan bias, but a lot of it comes from the fact that it’s hard to measure performance in the NFL from statistics and highlights. But we at ColtPlay try a little harder, so here’s our opinion on the honoured players.

AFC

QBs: Peyton Manning, Indianapolis; Philip Rivers, San Diego; Tom Brady, New England
No complaints about Manning or Rivers, but I think Houston’s Matt Schaub is a better pick than Brady.


HBs: Chris Johnson, Tennessee; Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville; Ray Rice, Baltimore
They are exactly who I’d pick.

FB: Le’Ron McClain, Baltimore
Personally, I’d go with Miami’s Lousaka Polite, who’s a far better blocker. McClain is a better receiver and is probably being rewarded for his big running year last season. This pick reflects the idea that most people still – for some reason – want to reward the fullback with the most rushing yards, rather than the best fullback. It’s kind of like voting for the best quarterback by his rushing yards, ignoring what he does in the passing game.

WRs: Andre Johnson, Houston; Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis; Brandon Marshall, Denver; Wes Welker, New England
It’s hard to pick just four with such a wealth of wideouts in the AFC this year, but this quartet works. Arguments could be made for San Diego’s Vincent Jackson, Cincinnati’s Chad Ochocinco and Pittsburgh’s Santonio Holmes.

TEs: Dallas Clark, Indianapolis; Antonio Gates, San Diego
This shows what’s important in a tight end these days. Clark and Gates are clearly the best receivers at the position in the AFC, but neither is even average as a blocker (okay, Gates is not bad in pass pro, but atrocious as a run blocker). I know Todd Heap is on the downside of his career, but he deserves some love as the last real all-around tight end of merit in the AFC.

Ts: Jake Long, Miami; Ryan Clady, Denver Joe Thomas; Cleveland
Although offensive lineman are difficult to grade for the casual observer, they did a great job here. Clady wasn’t as good this year as he was last, but is still fairly deserving. Pittsburgh’s Willie Colon, New York’s D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Tennessee’s David Stewart could have made the trip just as easily, but Colon and Stewart suffer from not playing on the glamorous left side.

Gs: Logan Mankins, New England; Alan Faneca, New York Jets; Kris Dielman, San Diego
Mankins had a great year aside from eight penalties, but Dielman has been mediocre at best and Faneca a disaster. How about Oakland’s Cooper Carlisle, Cincinnati’s Bobby Williams or even Indy’s Ryan Lilja instead?

Cs: Nick Mangold, New York Jets; Jeff Saturday, Indianapolis
Mangold has been a monster, and Saturday has been up to his usual standards. Look out for Cleveland’s Alex Mack (after a rough start) and, especially, Houston’s Chris Myers to make strong runs in the future.

DEs: Dwight Freeney, Indianapolis; Robert Mathis; Indianapolis, Mario Williams, Houston
No argument here, all three of these guys are game-changers and nobody else is even close. Don’t believe the oft-repeated claim that Freeney and Mathis can’t defend the run. It’s not just tired, it’s wrong.

DTs: Haloti Ngata, Baltimore; Vince Wilfork, New England; Casey Hampton, Pittsburgh
Lots of big reps here, and pretty good production. Wilfork and Ngata are brick walls against the run but come without a hint of pass-rush. The same could be said of New York’s Sione Pouha, who may be even better than the guys who made it. Hampton has looked tired this year. He’s still very good, but not as great as he was. If he was healthy, Cleveland’s Shaun Rogers would have dominated. And how about some mention for Buffalo’s Kyle Williams? It’s interesting that although 3-4 ends need not apply for the Pro Bowl, 3-4 nose tackles are more than welcome.

OLBs: Elvis Dumervil, Denver; James Harrison, Pittsburgh; Brian Cushing, Houston
Cushing’s a cinch. He’s played the position as well as anyone in the league this year. I’m no Harrison fan, but he’s earned his spot too. But Dumervil? Yes, he has lots of sacks, but I’d contend that no starting linebacker in the NFL since Gilbert Gardner is his heyday has ever been more of a pushover in the running game. Instead, how about or Baltimore’s Jarrett Johnson or Miami’s Jason Taylor?

ILBs: Ray Lewis, Baltimore; DeMeco Ryans, Houston
I always thought Lewis was overhyped, but he’s looked very good this year behind a stout line. Ryans has played the run well, but is only okay in coverage and has mounted no pass rush while getting some boneheaded penalties. A much better choice would have been Buffalo’s Paul Posluszny.

CBs: Darrelle Revis, New York Jets; Nnamdi Asomugha, Oakland; Champ Bailey, Denver
Revis is the best corner in the NFL without question. Bailey was, and has slipped little. It’s hard to tell if Asomugha is as good as he was because in 865 snaps, he has only been thrown at 27 times (compare that with Jacksonville’s hapless rookie Derek Cox who has been targeted 103 times in 860 snaps). Others who could have made it (and soon will) include Cincinnati’s duo of Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph or Kansas City’s Brandon Flowers.

FSs: Ed Reed, Baltimore; Jairus Byrd, Buffalo
You can’t argue with Byrd’s nine picks, but he’s a liability against the run (and on IR). Reed has been outstanding, but so too have been New York’s Kerry Rhodes and San Diego’s Eric Weddle.

SS: Brian Dawkins, Denver
Dawkins has played well, especially against the run, but I think Buffalo’s George Wilson was a shade better.

P: Shane Lechler, Oakland
He always wins, and he should. Indy’s Pat McAfee has an outside shot at replacing him one of these days.

K: Nate Kaeding, San Diego
Why? This guy is horrible on kickoffs, and not elite on placements. How about Oakland’s resurgent Sebastian Janikowski or Tennesee’s Rob Bironas instead?

KR: Josh Cribbs, Cleveland
No question.

ST: Kassim Osgood, San Diego
He made it on rep alone. There are dozens of more deserving players, but if I had to pick one, I’d go with New York’s Eric Smith or Pittsburgh’s Keyaron Fox.

NFC

QBs: Drew Brees, New Orleans; Brett Favre, Minnesota; Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay
I agree. Those three are at the top and then it’s a long drop to Arizona’s Kurt Warner.

HBs: Adrian Peterson, Minnesota; Steven Jackson, St. Louis; DeAngelo Williams, Carolina
Yeah, they’re all okay, but Green bay’s Ryan Grant deserves a little mention here.

FB: Leonard Weaver, Philadelphia
Again, the voters went with the yards guy instead of the blocker, but I’m much more okay with the Weaver pick. His 69-321-2 rushing and 15-140-2 receiving have made real contributions to the Eagles’ offense as a whole. And his blocking – though not top notch – has been good.

WRs: Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona; DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia; Miles Austin, Dallas; Sidney Rice, Minnesota
I’m fine with those four, but either of the Steve Smiths could easily step in, as could Atlanta’s Roddy White or Green Bay’s Greg Jennings.

TEs: Vernon Davis, San Francisco; Jason Witten, Dallas
Witten’s a shoo-in. Although Davis has made huge strides as a receiver, but he may not be as good overall as New York’s Kevin Boss or Atlanta’s Tony Gonzalez – both of who are much better blockers.

Ts: Jason Peters, Philadelphia; Bryant McKinnie, Minnesota; Jonathan Stinchcomb, New Orleans
Rough year for NFC tackles. Stinchcomb and Peters have been very solid, but McKinnie has been awful on the run. Another, better, candidate would be Detroit’s Jeff Backus who has been great on a bad team and survived a ton of criticism for his big paychecks.

Gs: Steve Hutchinson, Minnesota; Jahri Evans, New Orleans; Leonard Davis, Dallas
Evans has been phenomenal, just great. Davis has been generally good, but has had his lapses in pass-pro. And Hutchinson made it on rep alone. Like his pal McKinnie, he has been no help when the Vikings want to run the ball. How could they have missed the Giants’ Chris Snee, Dallas’ Kyle Kosier, Green Bay’s Rob Sims and Green bay’s Josh Sitton?

Cs: Andre Gurode, Dallas; Shaun O'Hara, New York Giants
I can’t really argue with either all that much, but Philly’s Jamaal Jackson has been just as good.

DEs: Jared Allen, Minnesota; Julius Peppers, Carolina; Trent Cole, Philadelphia
It’s hard to argue with sacks, but neither Allen nor Peppers have been that stout against the run. Sharp-eyed fans could see New York’s Justin Tuck or Atlanta’s John Abraham replacing either without an overall drop off.

DTs: Kevin Williams, Minnesota; Darnell Dockett, Arizona; Jay Ratliff, Dallas
Except for way too many penalties, Williams is the perfect 4-3 DT. Ratliff – like the AFC guys – is a nose man with lesser pass-rush value. Dockett is a 3-4 end who’s great rushing the passer, but can be bullied defending the run. Atlanta’s Jonathan Babineaux would be better choice than Ratliff or Dockett.

OLBs: DeMarcus Ware, Dallas; Lance Briggs, Chicago; Brian Orakpo, Washington
Again the voters go or stand-up ends instead of 4-3 ’backers. But Ware truly deserves to be there. Orakpo’s sack total gets him in for free and while he hasn’t been bad against the run, he’s been just better than awful in coverage. Briggs is simply a rep pick. Better choices include Green Bay’s Clay Matthews, Tampa’s Geno Hayes, Carolina’s Thomas Davis, Seattle’s Leroy Hill or even Briggs’ teammate Nick Roach.

ILBs: Patrick Willis, San Francisco; Jonathan Vilma, New Orleans
I’m fine with Willis, but Vilma’s been thrown around. Instead, give me Green Bay’s Nick Barnett, Seattle’s surprising David Hawthorne or, as everyone else in blogland has already said, Washington’s London Fletcher-Baker.

CBs: Charles Woodson, Green Bay; Asante Samuel, Philadelphia; Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Arizona
I’m fine with all three, but Samuel’s teammate Sheldon Brown has been at least as good. And New Orleans’ Jabari Greer had been money until he got hurt.

FSs: Darren Sharper, New Orleans; Nick Collins, Green Bay
These two are perfect choices.

SS: Adrian Wilson, Arizona
Wilson’s had a bit of an off year for him, but that still puts him at or near the top. Philly’s Quintin Mikell is the only other real option.

P: Andy Lee, San Francisco
Yep.

K: David Akers, Philadelphia
Fine.

KR: DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia
Sure he’s great at punt returns, but how many kicks has he fielded? Atlanta’s Eric Weems deserves at least a mention.

ST: Heath Farwell, Minnesota
Not bad, but Chicago’s Tim Shaw has been better.

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Painter

My guess is that Peyton Manning’s job is safe.

Curtis Painter (left) didn’t exactly set the world on fire out there, in his first NFL game. He came in with the Colts up 15-10, and left with them losing 29-15.

Let’s cut him a break. I mean he is a rookie after all. But let’s also take a look at the drives he “led.”

Drive 1 began with 5:36 left in the third quarter. The Colts had the ball at their own 10. It was a three-and-out, but I don’t really blame Painter – he went 1 for 1 for 9 yards, while rookie halfback Donald Brown ran twice for a one-yard loss.

Drive 2 began with 1:38 left in the third quarter. The Colts had the ball at their own 20. It did not go well for Painter. Elderly, doddering Calvin Pace manhandled reserve tight end Tom Santi, and ran at Painter. Painter, holding onto the ball way too long, didn’t see him, was sacked and coughed up the ball. Santi – aware of what he did – and some veterans (specifically, Jeff Saturday and Gijon Robinson) did their best to contain the damage, but they were outmuscled by Jets veteran end Marques Douglas, who jumped on the ball and thereby scored the go-ahead touchdown.

I learned a number of things on this play:
a) Santi is not who you want protecting your blind side, even against mediocre rushers
b) Painter is not a quick decision-maker
c) He also appears to be blind in his left eye

Drive 3 began with 1:29 left in the third quarter. The Colts had the ball at their own 16 after a terrible kick return by Chad Simpson. Brown was again stopped for no gain, the Painter forced two throws to Robinson. Time to punt.

Drive 4 began with 13:23 left in the fourth quarter. The Colts had the ball at their own 26. Painter completed a six-yard pass to Collie, then missed him entirely on the next play. Faced with a 3rd-and-4, and a bunch of covered receivers, Painter took matters into his own hands. Poorly. Despite the big hole in front of him, Painter was caught from behind by another 30something defensive lineman a long yard from the first down marker. Call out the punter again.

Drive 5 began with 5:38 left in the fourth quarter. The Colts had the ball at their own 27. Painter found Santi (I guess he forgave him) for a 22-yard gain. Then he fired a quick one to Hank Baskett for seven. Things are looking good! Then Painter decides to throw not just into double coverage but directly into the hands of one of the best young cornerbacks in the NFL. Dwight Lowery gets the pick.

Drive 6 began with 1:03 left in the fourth quarter. The Colts had the ball at their own 33. Three straight incompletes to less-than-starting-quality tight ends led to a 4th-and-10. Out of the shotgun, Painter scans for an open receiver, and is taken down by – of all people – former Colt Donald Strickland on a slot corner blitz. Jets rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez politely kneels to end the game, and Painter’s misery.

My synopsis? Well, I’m not going to wade into the should-they-have or shouldn’t-they-have controversy. They did, and that's it. I’m just going to look at what we can learn from Painter’s performance.

He was a rookie quarterback making his first appearance against one of the NFL’s most talented and best-coached defences. In fact, the Jets are still vaguely in the playoff race.

Understandably, Painter was thrown into a very, very tough situation – and he stunk. I’ve seen lots of quarterbacks come and go, and if you base it on this week’s game, Painter’s future looks pretty bleak.

But it’s not all bad. Painter has great tools, he really does. The problem is between his ears.

That’s why the Polian/Caldwell/Moore continuum threw him in there in the most nerve-wracking situation possible. If he can see a few more of those and see any kind of success, he has a future in the NFL.

But could he ever be Manning’s replacement? He’d be better off buying a lottery ticket.

Thursday, December 24, 2009

Review/Preview

Review

Watching the Colts-Jaguars game, I saw to truly outstanding players. Oh sure, there were lots of very good, even great players, but there were two who really were history makers – what the TV commentators call “game changers.” There was one on each side; and the better one won.

The champion of Jacksonville was none other than Maurice Jones-Drew. I won’t go into another tirade of how and why the Colts should have taken my advice and drafted him instead of Joseph Addai, although I was excruciatingly reminded of it every time I saw him drag guys in white shirts twice his size for extra yards. No, I won’t rhapsodize about MJD ... for now. Instead, I’ll look at the guys he embarrassed.

Actually, aside from the great Daniel Travanti Muir (left) – who is still surprising me with his stout play and durability – they all got handled. And I can’t really give Muir that much of a pass because he was usually facing some guy named Uche Nwaneri who has never done anything of merit. On the other hand, the Colts defenders facing better and more experienced Jaguars were mostly steamrolled. Everyone from big ol’ Antonio “Mookie” Johnson to the teensiest defensive back was pushed around. Keyunta Dawson – who’s supposed to be the run-stoppin’ end – looked particularly bad. But I’m not sure it was the Jags’ offensive line that had anything to do with it. To be honest, there’s some talent there (especially among the youngsters), but they’re not that good yet. I really think MJD did a lot of that on his own.

While Eric Foster was one of the Colts defenders who basically laid down against the run, he was very impressive against the pass, getting David Garrard’s face with stunning regularity.

None of the linebackers did much of note. But none of them looked awful either.

The Jaguars’ receiving corps is unspectacular, but they looked good against the Colts’ DBs. Rookie Jacob Lacey looked very good – maybe because there were no 220-240-pound monsters to bash him up or a change. He saw that Garrard was overthrowing his guys all day and cashed in at 1:05 with a pick on a pass that sailed well over Mike Thomas’ upstretched hands to seal the win.

Other than that, there’s not so much to talk about. As is becoming alarmingly usual, Melvin Bullitt got pwned in coverage, and even Kelvin Hayden looked a bit shaky.

Turning to the Colts’ offense, we saw the only player on the field more capable of great things than MJD – Peyton Manning. Throw away his 134.4 passer rating – which was marred by an interception that occurred when tight end Dallas Clark tried to turn a drop into a catch and juggled the ball into Daryl Smith’s hands. What was shocking was how the Colts instinctively knew he’d take care of them when he got the ball back in his hands.

Aside from the interception he helped out on, Clark had a very nice day as a receiver. In fact, he redeemed himself with a long (27-yard) touchdown pass on what looked like the exact same play.
More impressive, though, was wideout Reggie Wayne (5-132-1), whose 65-yard score was a classic, It was a three-wide set with Austin Collie in the left slot, Wayne split wide left and Hank Baskett split wide right. Wayne blew past rookie corner Derek Cox and then won a footrace with safety Reggie Nelson. Although Nelson was credited (debited?) with giving up the score, it’s noteworthy that Cox didn’t play another down after that play.

The other receivers contributed a lot less on the stats sheet, but Collie gave slot corner Derek Middleton fits all day. And Collie’s touchdown reception was just another example of how well and fearlessly he works the middle. Pierre Garcon gets the lion’s share of media and fan attention for his long, highlight film touchdowns, but I think Collie’s had a bigger overall impact. It was interesting to see Baskett out there in the fourth. He ran some routes, but Manning never looked his way.

The Colts running backs were uninspiring again. In their defense, the Jags are harder than most to run against, but still. Addai gained 59 yards on 16 carries (3.69 average), backup Mike Hart had runs of 2, 5 and -4 yards (1.00 average) and Collie gained two on a trick play. Neither of the halfbacks was a big factor in the passing game as a receiver – Addai went 3-14-0 and Hart 1-11-0 – but both stood up fairly well against the blitz.

In fact, all of the Colts did a good job in a pass-pro. Not only was Manning not sacked, he was never hit. The left side of the line – ailing, out-of-position tackle Charlie Johnson and inconsistent guard Ryan Lilja – gave up a little pressure, but they spent a lot of time facing the Jags’ best rushers, linebacker Smith and natural-tackle-playing-end John Henderson. But the pass-rush has been Jacksonville’s Achilles Heel for as long as I can remember. Remember how Quentin Groves and Derrick Harvey were going to change that? Well, they were both easily managed by the Colts.

Remember fullback roulette? Well the marble landed in Foster’s slot this week, so he ran three plays on offense late in the game. He wound up getting a false start penalty and the Colts went three-and-out on the drive, so you could see Cody Glenn there next week. Considering that Foster played all five defensive line positions – yeah, on the nine plays the Colts played with a three-man line, he was the nose tackle on eight of them – and outside linebacker, maybe yet another position is just too much for him. He’s a smart kid, but c’mon ...

I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention Chad Simpson’s kick return for a score, but I also can't ignore his potentially disastrous end zone fumble. I’m still not a big fan. Pat McAfee had a rare rough day both punting and kicking off.

Preview

People underestimate the Jets. When Sanchez is on (and he will be a lot over the next decade or so), they are dangerous. They have lots of good players on offense, and can score from anywhere. But the Colts may just have caught a break. Nick Mangold, the Jets’ center, has fallen ill with flu. If he’s out, the Colts should have no problem with the Jets’ offense. See, Mangold is the Jets’ best player on offense at any position, and if Sanchez is pressured, he’s nowhere near as successful. I don’t mean to dis Mangold’s backup – Robert Turner, who is a pretty decent prospect in his own right – but if Mangold is out, the Jets are cooked. Like many a rookie quarterback, Sanchez is awful when under pressure. And if Mangold is out, Colts like Foster and blitz-maniac Gary Brackett could rain terror upon him. But illness is the strangest of injuries. If Mangold wakes up on Sunday and isn’t puking, it could be a long day for the Colts’ defensive line.

On defense, the Jets have no real pass-rush threats aside from middle linebacker David Harris. The inner three should be up to handling him, so Manning should be free to work his magic. The Jets have perhaps the best corner in football – oh, how I love this kid! – in Darrelle Revis, and they move him around to cover the opponent’s best receiver. He really could well neutralize Wayne, so look for Manning to target other receivers. And Kerry Rhodes, one of the league’s best safeties, will have Clark in his sights. Collie could have a very big day.

As far as running, the Jets are solid up the middle and vulnerable on the outside. Look for lots of stretch running plays and the occasional screen.




Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Review/Preview


Review

If you look at the stat sheet for the Colts` 28-16 victory over the Broncos, you`d think it was Dallas Clark (left) against Richard Marshall and little else. Well, you`d have a point. But we here at ColtPlay look at Clark, Marshall, the guys trying to cover them and every other minute detail about the game.

We'll start with Clark, whose three touchdown scores resulted in more points than the Broncos scored in total. Clark has always run hot and cold, and on Sunday he was white hot. The Broncos decided to cover him primarily with nickel `backer Wesley Woodyard. It seemed like a good decision at the time because Woodyard is much better than their other linebackers in coverage, and is bigger and stronger than most safeties. But he is not bigger and stronger than Clark, and nor is he as fast, quick or talented. Clark beat him four times, three of which went for TDs.

His other big catch was a thing of beauty, not just for him, but for offensive coordinator Tom Moore. It was 4th-and-4 at the Broncos` 34. The Colts line up single setback with Clark at tight end on the right, Reggie Wayne split wide left and Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon in the slot on the right. The Broncos counter with a bizarre-looking 2-3-6. Clark goes in motion, splits wide right. The Broncos are confused. The snap. Clark blows by the corner (was it Champ Bailey?), who went after Garcon, and was matched one-on-one with Brian Dawkins. Dawkins has had a long and distinguished career, but was beaten badly on that one.

The other tight ends didn’t do much. Gijon Robinson caught the only pass thrown his way (a seven yarder on 2nd-and-9), while Jacob Tamme did not catch the only one thrown his way. Robinson was so-so as a blocker, while Jamie Richard – who showed up in short yardage packages – looked better than he has recently. I like this kid and hope to see him get more snaps. By the way, when was the last time anyone saw that Pollak kid?

Although Collie’s touchdown on the opening drive was a thing of beauty, the wide receivers as a group did not impress. Catching just 9 of 22 passes for 121 yards, they seemed unable to get as open as they are used to. Even Collie had problems when he was not matched up against fellow rookie Alphonso Smith.

Peyton Manning’s butt injury is bothering me. He went 27-15-154-3-1 for a 93.8 rating in the first half, and 15-5-66-1-2 for a 44.8 rating in the second. He’s known as a second-half performer, so the injury could have been bothering him as the game wore on. I guess it bears watching, but since Manning has missed just one snap in his career due to injury (a broken frickin' jaw), and veteran No. 2 passer Jim Sorgi is on the IR, I expect he’ll pull it up.

This is the point where I’d normally be saying that Colt fans are unduly praising a halfback. And I will, but this time it’s fan favourite Mike Hart, not fan favourite Joseph Addai. Actually, Addai had a fairly decent game, gaining 67 yards on 16 carries (4.19 average) and 49 yards on five catches. Still, he caught just five of the eight passes thrown his way, and even dropped a crucial one. And he did not look that sharp as a blocker.

People are praising Hart’s “courage” and “ability to get tough yards.” To me, that usually means he had terrible stats; and it's true this time. Hart rushed 28 yards on 9 carries (3.11) and failed to catch the single pass thrown his way. Of course, total stats never tell the whole story, so let’s look at his carries:

1st quarter 11:15 1st-and-10 @ Denver’s 17 Off LT for three yards
1st quarter 5:51 1st-and-10 @ Denver’s 11 Between LG and C for one yard
3rd quarter 8:02 1st-and-10 @ Indy’s 25 Between C and RG for four yards
3rd quarter 4:28 2nd-and-10 @ Indy’s 14 Between RT and TE for two yards
4th quarter 4:41 1st-and-10 @ Denver’s 14 Off RT (no TE) for five yards
4th quarter 3:53 2nd-and-10 @ Denver’s 14 Off LT (no TE) for nine yards
4th quarter 3:12 3rd-and-1 @ Denver’s 5 Off LTE for two yards
4th quarter 2:43 1st-and-Goal @ Denver’s 3 Between RT and RTE for two yards (note: three TEs and a FB)
4th quarter 2:35 2nd-and-Goal @ Denver’s 1 Between RG and RT for no gain (note: three TEs and a FB)

Not that impressive if you ask me. Denver’s decent against the run, but not special. On a team like the Colts, a halfback that can take over in the second half, keep the chains moving and taking the pressure off Manning would be ideal. I don’t see that back on the roster.

Oh, and the battle for dominance at fullback continues unabated. Cody Glenn, Eric Foster and Chad Simpson all saw snaps there. My money’s on Glenn, who has yet to see Down 1 as a linebacker.

I predicted the right side of the line would have problems with Elvis Dumervil and Vonnie Holliday; and I was right. But other than right tackle Ryan Diem – who had fits with Dumervil – nobody looked bad. Special nods to guards Ryan Lilja and Kyle DeVan, both of whom played well.

On defense, nobody could cover Marshall. He hammered Tim Jennings, Jacob Lacey, Jerraud Powers and the linebackers. Actually, I have to admit Kelvin Hayden did okay against him, but Marshall wisely stayed out of his zone. As a whole, the defensive backs looked better than Marshall’s stats would indicate (the rest of the Broncos caught just 8 of 13 passes for 77 yards and no scores). Their coverage was generally tight, but their tackling was terrible. They’ve been having problems with big wideouts all year, and Marshall is one of the biggest. Jennings’ leaping interception at the Indy 1-yard line was a bright spot, but he was later beaten for a touchdown on what looked like exactly the same play.

Poor play in the secondary is often blamed on the pass rush, but the Colts actually did okay in that area. In truth, nobody other than Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis and the suddenly blitz-happy Gary Brackett mounted much of a rush, but they were sufficient. Both Freeney and Mathis also looked quite good against the run, as did defensive tackle Dan Muir (I’m a solid fan now). Antonio “Mookie” Johnson was okay aside from a couple of boneheaded penalties, and Eric Foster did his normally good job. As has become disturbingly familiar, Raheem Brock – he of the big contract – was easily nullified once again. He's gonna have a tense spring. Fili Moala showed up, and did nothing of note.

All three starting linebackers looked good, especially Brackett. It should be noted, though, that strongside starter Philip Wheeler was on the sidelines for more than two thirds of all defensive plays. That does not scream confidence.

On specials, Pat McAfee continues to amaze, both as a punter and kickoff specialist. And he’s pretty automatic as a holder too. The coverage teams looked very good containing Eddie Royal, and shout outs go to Glenn, Hart and Simpson. But Simpson and TJ Rushing showed me once again why I think the Colts should invest in a return specialist.

Preview

The Jaguars always play the Colts tough, and are 5-2 at home this year. The guys to look out for on offense are halfback Maurice Jones-Drew (I still can’t get over Bill Polian drafting Addai ahead of him!), receivers Mike Sims-Walker and Jarett Dillard (another guy I lobbied for).

On defense, they have some nice linebackers in Daryl Smith and Justin Durant. And big defensive tackle John Henderson must be accounted for. Defensive backs Reggie Nelson and former Pro Bowler Rashean Mathis have had some problems in coverage, so look for Manning to target them.

According to Stampede Blue, the following Colts are unlikely to play: HB Donald Brown, S Aaron Francisco, WR Anthony Gonzalez, CB Jerraud Powers, K Adam Vinatieri, DT Eric Foster, DE Dwight Freeney, T Charlie Johnson and DE Robert Mathis.

Okay, lots of those guys we’re used to seeing in street clothes. But Freeney, Mathis and Foster account for virtually all of the Colts’ pass rush, Johnson is their only capable left tackle and Powers has spent his rookie season as the Colts’ No. 1 and No. 2 corner.

The Jaguars’ starting offensive tackles – Eben Britton and Eugene Monroe – have been turnstiles against pass rushers, but without Freeney and Mathis, the Colts won’t be able to take advantage of that. Can you actually see Keyunta Dawson and Brock (or rookie Ervin Baldwin) getting any kind of rush? To tell you the truth, I’m not sure David Garrard – who’s more smart and resourceful than talented – can take advantage of that.

I’m less worried about Johnson’s injury. While backup Tony Ugoh has his problems, he should be able to stand up to Jaguars’ starting right defensive end Quentin Groves, who has a grand total of zero sacks this year. The return of Hayden should offset the loss of Powers.

The key is Manning. If he’s okay, the Jags don’t stand a chance. If he’s ailing, they do.

Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Review/Preview


Review

Joseph Addai had a good game against the Titans. He ran for 79 yards and two scores on 21 carries. Many in the Coltosphere are celebrating like he ran for at least twice as many yards. At the risk of being labeled an Addai-hater (again), I have to ask myself that with the same game plan, same blocking and the omnipresent threat of Peyton Manning backing him up, did Addai do anything that could not have been done by any of the other starting halfbacks in the league? Okay, maybe the bottom ten couldn’t, but 3.76 yards a carry against a team that has been allowing 4.21 really doesn’t make me want to elevate Addai to any level better than pretty good starting halfback. He also caught all three of the passes thrown his way for 17 yards, 10 of them coming after the catch. Again, good, but not great.

With Donald Brown out, a few snaps went to the “other” halfbacks. Mike Hart didn’t really impress as a rusher (4-11-0) late in the game when everybody knew the Colts would be running, but had a couple of nice catches. He beat both of the Titans’ vaunted starting outside linebackers – Keith Bulluck and former Colt David Thornton – and added 16 yards after his catches for a total of 2-27-0. He did not make an impact on special teams, though. And that could really help him stick. Newly crowned fan favorite Chad Simpson had a rougher day on offense, not getting any carries and catching just two passes for a loss of one yard. He didn’t get any blocking on the six-yard loss Thornton threw him for, but the complaint I have always had with Simpson is his lack of creativity as a runner. In his defense, though, he made some nice YAC after his other catch, he did throw a nice block in blitz pickup and he put up good kick return numbers.

Pierre Garcon continues to impress. Really, really impress. Bill Polian was talking him up a lot in the offseason, and he is truly fulfilling his potential now. Against the Titans he showed me more courage, concentration and toughness than I had seen before, totally dominating former Colt CB Nick Harper. Reggie Wayne had a less than typical day for him on the other side, but faced lots of double coverage. Slot guy Austin Collie was his normal reliable self, and looked particularly deft on his short touchdown catch against William Fuller. If you look at how well that trio is playing, you wouldn’t think the Colts are actually missing a starter to injury. Things will get mighty interesting once Anthony Gonzalez returns.

Tight end Dallas Clark had a rough day, but I think it was one of those things as the Titans didn’t really cover him all that tightly. Gijon Robinson ran a few patterns, but Manning didn’t look his way.

Here are the receiving stats:

Garcon 6 of 9 for 136 yards and 0 touchdowns with 51 yards after the catch and 0 drops
Wayne 4 of 7 for 48 yards and 0 touchdowns with 30 yards after the catch and 0 drops
Hart 2 of 2 for 27 yards and 0 touchdowns with 16 yards after the catch and 0 drops
Clark 3 of 5 for 25 yards and 0 touchdowns with 11 yards after the catch and 2 drops
Collie 4 of 6 for 18 yards and 1 touchdown with 22 yards after the catch and 0 drops
Addai 3 of 3 for 17 yards and 0 touchdowns with 10 yards after the catch and 0 drops
Simpson 2 of 2 for -1 yard and 0 touchdowns with 11 yards after the catch and 0 drops

Another week, another great day for right guard Kyle DeVan. If you look at both of Addai’s touchdown runs (here), you’ll see that he gets good blocks from right tackle Ryan Diem and outstanding blocks by DeVan to free him. On the first, DeVan destroys Kevin Vickerson, and on the 1-yarder, DeVan smashes Jovan Haye.

I love watching this kid run block, but I cringe a little when I see him take a step back. He had another rough day in that regard, allowing 3 pressures in 30 drop-backs.

His partner in crime on the right side, Diem, had a great day in both run and pass blocking generally handling the four different players he faced, but let me down a little with three false start penalties.

Center Jeff Saturday did his normal great job, but left guard Ryan Lilja looked a little shaky in pass pro. Tony Ugoh started at left tackle in place of injured Charlie Johnson, and although he wasn’t horrible, he was close. Remember last week I said he still had some promise? I’m not so sure now.

A final note on offense: Two players made their only appearance on Addai’s one-yard touchdown run. The Colts went to a three tight-end, I-formation set. The tight end on the left was Jamey Richard, making his first play on offense all year at any position. And the other was Cody Glenn, who is listed on the roster as a linebacker and wears No. 52, but played fullback for the second time, and has yet to see a single play on defense. Ironically, they both blocked the same guy as Titans left end William Hayes beat Richard, and Glenn picked him up. It looks like Glenn is the Colts’ fullback now, although defensive tackle Eric Foster also played there late in the game, blocking for Mike Hart, who’d taken over for Addai late in the game.

The best things for the Colts defense were the mistakes by the Titans’ offense. They should have put the ball in the hands of their best weapon – halfback Chris Johnson (more on him later) – far more often, instead of expecting shaky, streaky quarterback Vince Young to carry the load, especially near the goal line.

The Colts blitzed a lot – 20 times, as opposed to the Titans’ two – and it generally worked out well. Although the Colts only got one sack (from defensive end Dwight Freeney), they mounted an okay pass-rush. The main guys were Freeney, as expected, and defensive tackle Antonio Johnson, who got the better of Titans’ left guard Eugene Amano a number of times.

Interestingly, though, on the key 3rd-and-goal from the Colts’ 2-yard line when Young badly overthrew Nate Washington, he was under no real pressure.

But the defensive line as a unit did not play well. Raheem Brock had yet another poor performance, and none of the linemen seemed to be able to find Chris Johnson on running plays.

Fili Moala showed up. I mean he actually showed up. Playing a minor role at both defensive tackle positions, he had his best performance of the season. He actually recorded a pressure! I’m so happy about that, I’m going to forgive and not even mention the missed tackle.

Another young lineman, Ervin Baldwin, made his NFL debut at end, and did a whole lot of nothing.

While some of the Colts’ linebackers looked good against the Titans, others did not. Outside starters Phillip Wheeler and Clint Session had pretty solid games tracking down Chris Johnson after the defensive line had allowed him to spring loose. Session piled up the tackles (12), while Wheeler’s were closer to the line of scrimmage. And both actually looked pretty solid in coverage, which is a relief for all those who were afraid Wheeler would never succeed there. Session also had some success blitzing, while Wheeler (oddly) was not asked to.

On the other hand, middle man Gary Brackett looked slow and out of step in both run defense and coverage. For him to be effective in run defense, he needs his line to help him, and they did not against the Titans. As far as coverage, which is normally a strong suit for him, he probably just had an off day like Clark’s. I’m not sure it was an anomly for Ramon Humber, though, who looked absolutely tragic in coverage. But keep two things in mind: a) He was playing mostly outside and is much more comfortable inside, and b) Covering Chris Johnson is nobody’s idea of fun. Interestingly, Freddy Keiaho didn’t see a down on defense, but did play (and play well) on specials. Look to see if Keiaho is phased out for Humber as the season progresses.

The Colts’ starting corners – rookies Jerraud Powers and Jacob Lacey – looked decent in coverage, although Powers would have looked a lot worse if Washington hadn’t dropped a perfectly placed bomb, and Lacey should give half the credit for his interception to Freeney. It was troubling to see how easily Titans’ wide receiver Kenny Britt outmuscled Lacey, though. It’s becoming something of a trend to see him get run over by big wideouts. And I wasn’t happy about that penalty either.
The Colts learned from their mistake earlier this year when they rushed Kelvin Hayden back from injury. This time, they eased him in and he was really, really good, blanking all the Titans who wandered into his midst. Less impressive was fourth corner Tim Jennings, but even he wasn’t bad. None of them did anything particularly good or bad against the run.

At safety, it was pretty much a typical week – which is to say, good and bad. Antoine Bethea was very good in all phases of the game (coverage, run support and blitzing), while Melvin Bullitt was alarming in coverage, allowing a couple of long completions and a touchdown to tight end Bo Scaife. My fondness for Bullitt as a starter is severely waning. He is looking a lot more like a third safety than a starter. Jamie Silva played a couple of downs at safety, and made a decent tackle in run support, but was easily erased on his blitz attempt.

As is becoming usual, nobody impressed me on special teams aside from punter/kickoff man Pat McAfee. If only his coverage teams were better, this guy would get the recognition he deserves.

Preview

Despite having Kyle Orton at quarterback, the Broncos have had a very potent passing game this year. The Colts’ defensive backs will be challenged by yet another jumbo receiver in Brandon Marshall. And slick tight end Tony Scheffler is likely to give Bullitt fits. Starting halfback Knowshon Moreno isn’t straight-line fast, but is elusive and explosive. In order to nullify him, the Colts will have to take advantage of right guard Chris Kuper and right tackle Ryan Harris, who are not good run blockers. If the Colts can get some rush up the middle, they may be able to frustrate Orton, who is prone to make mistakes under pressure. I’d like to see Foster get a lot of reps.

Most of the Broncos pass rush comes from the right side where outside linebacker Elvis Dumervil and end Vonnie Holliday roam. Look for whoever plays left tackle to have his hands full and to get some help from two-tight end sets with Robinson lending a hand. The Colts could find great success running right behind DeVan and Diem, who’ll be facing ex-Colt Darrell Reid at outside linebacker and end Kenny Peterson, both of whom are no better than atrocious against the run. For years, teams have been avoiding Broncos corner Champ Bailey, and they have been wise to do so. On the other side, though, Andre Goodman hasn’t been able to cover a paint can with a tarp and third corner/slot guy/first-round draft pick Alphonso Smith has been marginally better. If the Broncos match Bailey up against Wayne, look for Manning to target Garcon and Collie relentlessly.

News

The Colts put quarterback Jim Sorgi (butt splinters) on injured reserve and signed tackle Michael Toudouze. They also dropped quarterback Shane Boyd from the practice squad, replacing him with quarterback Drew Willy.

That Toudouze was signed indicates that they don’t expect Johnson back anytime soon. That means the Colts will suffer through having Ugoh at left tackle for at least another week. Slow-footed Toudouze is unlikely to see any action unless Ugoh gets hurt or is so awful that he needs to be replaced, and Diem has to shift over to the left side. If that happens, things could get really ugly.

Boyd was, as I said last week, signed to pretend to be Vince Young in practice. With the Titans out of the way, the Colts have replaced him with a much better quarterback prospect in Willy. Personally, I really like Willy, who has intangibles out the ears, and think he could be a long-term NFL backup.


Thursday, December 3, 2009

Position Analysis: Outside Linebackers

55 Clint Session
Participation: 11 games, 11 starts, 642 snaps: 281 run (43.8 percent), 31 rush (4.8 percent), 330 cover (51.4 percent)
Pass rushing: 1 sack, 4 QB hits, 4 pressures
Tackling: 64 tackles, 6 assists, 2 tackles for loss, 9 missed tackles (12.3 percent), 35 defeats, 0 forced fumbles, 0 fumble recoveries
Pass defense: 45 targets, 37 catches allowed, 262 yards allowed, 0 TDs allowed, 2-35-1 interceptions, 1 pass defensed, 72.4 opp QB rating
Special teams: 2 tackles, 0 assists, 0 missed tackles
Contract status: signed through 2012
Triangle numbers: 5110/236/4.52c
Summary: A surprise fourth-round pick in 2007, Session has gradually developed into the Colts’ best outside linebacker. Of course, best is a relative term. Session makes a lot of great plays, and sometimes he makes some boneheaded ones. Session has gotten much better of late, especially when it comes to coverage. Future: Session will be a starting outside linebacker for the Colts as long as he’s under contract.

56 Tyjuan Hagler
Participation: 7 games, 7 starts, 232 snaps: 138 run (59.5 percent), 1 rush (0.4 percent), 93 cover (40.1 percent)
Pass rushing: 0 sacks, 0 QB hits, 0 pressuresTackling: 20 tackles, 11 assists, 1 tackles for loss, 5 missed tackles (20.0 percent), 13 defeats, 1 forced fumble, 1 fumble recovery
Pass defense: 13 targets, 10 catches allowed, 47 yards allowed, 0 TDs allowed, 0-0 interception, 3 passes defensed, 81.2 opp QB rating
Special teams: 0 tackles, 1 assist, 0 missed tackles
Contract status: Set to become a free agent after 2009 season
Triangle numbers: 5115/236/4.62c
Summary: Ah, Hagler. He’s a great guy, plays all three linebacker positions at a decent starter level, is somewhat better against the run than the pass (but good at both), and he’ll help out on specials too. What’s not to like? Well, at the end of this season (he went on IR after Game 7) he’ll have played in 28 out of a possible 80 regular-season games since he was drafted in the fifth round in 2005. That makes Bob Sanders look like Cal Ripken. Hagler doesn’t just get hurt, he gets hurt lifting weights, buying groceries, patting puppies ... Future: Every offseason I always expect the Colts to dump Hagler. It’s not that I don’t like him, I really do. I just always think that they be silly enough won’t take another chance on his health. This year they kept him because of worries about Wheeler’s ability to start. To be honest, Hagler outplayed Wheeler so far this year, but his injury history is more than a bit troubling. But it will be for other teams as well. Look for the Colts to re-sign Hagler to a risk-free, bonus-free contract.

50 Philip Wheeler
Participation: 10 games, 2 starts, 148 snaps: 73 run (49.1 percent), 10 rush (6.8 percent), 65 cover (44.1 percent)
Pass rushing: 1 sack, 0 QB hits, 0 pressures
Tackling: 12 tackles, 6 assists, 1 tackles for loss, 1 missed tackles (7.7 percent), 9 defeats, 1 forced fumble, 0 fumble recoveries
Pass defense: 13 targets, 12 catches allowed, 83 yards allowed, 1 TD allowed, 0-0 interceptions, 0 passes defensed, 118.9 opp QB rating
Special teams: 4 tackles, 0 assists, 3 missed tackles
Contract status: Signed through 2011 season
Triangle numbers: 6017/248/4.76c4.66pd
Summary: There was a mixture of elation and confusion when the Colts picked Wheeler in the third round of the 2008 draft. Everyone knew their turnover at linebacker was annual, so any reinforcements were welcome. And Wheeler had a distinguished career at Georgia Tech. But he didn’t match the Colts OLB prototype. He was big, and his best quality was his blitz ability. He seemed somewhat out of place in Indy where tiny coverage ’backers were the order of the day. But Wheeler was thrown onto the Colts’ OLB assembly line and spent his rookie season on special teams and learning the defense as countless other have before him. When the Colts let Freddie Keiaho leave as a free agent, it looked as though Wheeler had been given a starting spot, and things looked even better for him because new defensive coordinator Larry Coyer and head coach Jim Caldwell seemed much less allergic to blitzing than the previous regime. But one thing got in the way of Wheeler’s ascension – he didn’t earn the starting job. In summer camp and the preseason, he looked raw and unready. Just before the first regular-season game of 2009, the Colts announced that the less gifted, but more productive Hagler had won the spot. Wheeler played very sparingly at LB the first couple of games, and then the Colts started putting him at DE late in games. They switched him back to linebacker, still appearing only in fourth quarters. He did little to distinguish himself other than a sort-of sack against Alex Smith of the 49ers. But after Hagler was hurt against the Patriots, Wheeler was thrust into a starting position. The results have been inconclusive thus far. He looked great against the Pats, pretty good against Baltimore and mediocre against Houston. Notably in the Houston game, he lost quite a few fourth-quarter snaps to Keiaho and also showed up a couple of times back at defensive end. Most young linebackers go through growing pains, and Wheeler is having some ups and downs. The next few games will indicate if he deserves a starting spot. If he doesn’t earn one, his career in Indy could be in jeopardy because he has been less than adequate on special teams, recording almost as many penalties (three) and missed tackles (three) as tackles (four). Future: With five games left to go in the season, we should have a pretty good idea of whether Wheeler is part of the team’s future plans. Neither Hagler nor Keiaho appear to be long-term solutions at the position, so Wheeler will get every opportunity to prove he belongs.

54 Freddie Keiaho
Participation: 4 games, 0 starts, 21 snaps: 7 run (33.3 percent), 2 rush (9.5 percent), 12 cover (57.2 percent)
Pass rushing: 0 sacks, 1 QB hit, 0 pressures
Tackling: 1 tackle, 0 assists, 0 tackles for loss, 0 missed tackles (0.0 percent), 0 defeats, 0 forced fumbles, 0 fumble recoveries
Pass defense: 1 target, 1 catch allowed, 7 yards allowed, 0 TDs allowed, 0-0 interceptions, 0 passes defensed, 95.8 opp QB rating
Special teams: 4 tackles, 0 assist, 0 missed tackles
Contract status: Set to become a free agent after 2009 season
Triangle numbers: 5112/224/4.68pd
Summary: When he arrived as a third-round pick in 2006, Colts fans loved Keiaho’s aggressiveness and non-stop motor. A couple of years of missed tackles and bitten-upon play fakes later, they were much less enthusiastic. Keiaho became an unrestricted free agent before the 2009 season because the Colts did not tender him an offer. No other team came close to resigning him, and he returned to Indy for a one-year $585,000 contract. He began the season as the team’s backup middle linebacker (he had started on the outside in the past), and was not in the running when Hagler replaced Wheeler, or again when Wheeler replaced Hagler. But he has shown up on the outside a few times since the Hagler injury. I’ll discuss his abilities inside in a later post. In his few outing at OLB, Keiaho has played fairly well and looked much more disciplined than he had in the past. And he has been something of a bright spot on the kickoff coverage unit. Future: I don’t think the Colts believe Keiaho is the answer either inside or out, but he is a capable reserve at all three LB positions and an asset on special teams. If they can get him back at a bargain price, expect them to.

59 Ramon Humber
Participation: 1 game, 0 starts, 3 snaps: 2 run (66.7 percent), 0 rush (0.0 percent), 1 cover (33.3 percent)
Pass rushing: 0 sacks, 0 QB hits, 0 pressures
Tackling: 1 tackle, 0 assists, 0 tackles for loss, 0 missed tackles (0.0 percent), 0 defeats, 0 forced fumbles, 0 fumble recoveries
Pass defense: 0 targets, 0 catches allowed, 0 yards allowed, 0 TDs allowed, 0-0 interceptions, 0 passes defensed, 0.0 opp QB rating
Special teams: 11 tackles, 0 assists, 0 missed tackles
Contract status: Signed through 2011 season
Triangle numbers: 5106/224/4.56pd
Summary: Every year the Colts have at least one undrafted free agent find, and this year’s crop brought something of a gem in Humber. After solid play in the preseason both inside and out, Humber made the team as an extra linebacker. Humber hasn’t appeared much on defense, but when he has played, he’s looked like he belonged (although he was much better inside than out). While it’s far too early to tell if Humber will ever make a serious impact on defense, we do know that he is already the Colts’ best weapon on kick and punt coverage units. He will be worth watching as the season progresses. Future: Humber will be welcomed back with open arms, and will be given every chance to prove that he can contribute on defense. But even if he’s never any more than a reserve at linebacker, he certainly earns his pay on special teams.

52 Cody Glenn
Participation: 0 games, 0 starts, 0 snaps: 0 run (0.0 percent), 0 rush (0.0 percent), 0 cover (0.0 percent)
Pass rushing: 0 sacks, 0 QB hits, 0 pressures
Tackling: 0 tackles, 0 assists, 0 tackles for loss, 0 missed tackles (0.0 percent), 0 defeats, 0 forced fumbles, 0 fumble recoveries
Pass defense: 0 targets, 0 catches allowed, 0 yards allowed, 0 TDs allowed, 0-0 interceptions, 0 passes defensed, 0.0 opp QB rating
Special teams: 3 tackles, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle
Contract status: Signed through 2012 season
Triangle numbers: 6000/244/4.67pd
Summary: Glenn came to Nebraska as a very highly rated halfback in 2005. He won the short-yardage job as a frosh and rushed 45-131-4. Despite the emergence of Brandon Jackson, Glenn saw an expanded role as a sophomore, running 71-370-8. Injuries derailed him as a junior, and he ran just 27-78-2 and caught 6-52-0. He was switched to defense and actually won a starting spot at weakside linebacker. He played well – better against the run and while blitzing than in coverage – for the first nine games, but was suspended for the rest of the season for selling game tickets. But don’t judge his character too harshly, he earned his degree and is well known as a charitable volunteer. He was a fifth-round pick by Washington, but was among their final cuts. Since becoming a Colt, he hasn’t played defense yet, so it’s hard to say how he is progressing. But notably, he has not been impressive on special teams. Interestingly, Glenn has seen one play on offense, serving as an extra runningback on a goal-line situation. Future: It’s hard to imagine a prospect more raw than Glenn. After an injury-plagued three college seasons as an extra halfback, he played nine games at linebacker and has yet to see the field as a defender in the NFL. He certainly has potential at linebacker, but if I may be silly for a moment, what if he turns out to be the fullback/short-yardage back that I have been begging Bill Polian for lo these many years?

Also saw significant time at outside linebacker with the Colts this year:

51 Jordan Senn
Participation: 2 games, 0 starts, 79 snaps: 11 run (13.9 percent), 7 rush (8.9 percent), 61 cover (77.2 percent)
Pass rushing: 0 sacks, 0 QB hits, 0 pressures
Tackling: 2 tackles, 2 assists, 0 tackles for loss, 0 missed tackles (0.0 percent), 1 defeats, 1 forced fumble, 0 fumble recoveries
Pass defense: 6 targets, 6 catches allowed, 53 yards allowed, 0 TDs allowed, 0-0 interceptions, 0 passes defensed, 103.5 opp QB rating
Special teams: 1 tackle, 0 assists, 0 missed tackles
Contract status: Is now with the Carolina Panthers
Triangle numbers: 5110/224/4.53pd
Summary: Senn was 2008’s Humber. Coming out of nowhere (actually, Portland State), Senn earned a spot and looked great on specials and promising on defense. But things didn’t go his way in 2009. He played a bit as a nickel linebacker and special teamer before the Colts cut him. He’s since signed with the Panthers, and has already become an important special-teams performer. Future: I think the Colts gave up on him too early.


Conclusion: In the Polian years, outside linebackers have been nothing less than disposable, with a starter leaving almost every year. We’ve seen Marcus Washington, Mike Peterson, David Thornton, Gilbert Gardner, Rob Morris, Cato June and Keiaho jettisoned. Of course, Keiaho came back and Gardner was utterly horrible, but the others were hard to part with.

This time around, the Colts have both starters – Session and Wheeler – under contract. Session’s solid, and not to be dislodged, but Wheeler hardly a sure thing. Both Hagler and Keiaho would likely accept any contract the team offered him, but neither is considered a solid bet as a starter. Humber has a great deal of upside, but to expect him to be a starter at this point is nothing short of foolhardy. Glenn? Well, he’s as likely to find a home on offense as he is on defense at this point.

So it will come as no surprise that I expect the Colts to draft an outside linebacker with starting potential. Right now, the guy I really like is Troy’s Cameron Sheffield. He’s fast, strong and productive. He’s more than a bit raw in coverage, but hey, who’s perfect?

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

Looking forward and back


Review
As stated earlier, the best player the Colts had on defense against the Texans was OLB Clint Session (left). Not only did he get the winning Pick-6, but he played consistently well all game. He managed a QB hit and two pressures on nine blitzes, and had six tackles all told. He was pushed around a bit on the run at first, but seemed to get better in that regard as the game progressed. The other linebackers didn’t impress, although MLB Freddie Keiaho seemed to add some zip when he stepped in for Gary Brackett late in the game.

The starting corners – rookies Jerraud Powers and Jacob Lacey – looked awful in the first half, but tightened up to be closer to average later on. Lacey was literally overpowered by Texans WR Andre Johnson (who has a good 50 pounds of muscle on Lacey) on several plays. But strong safety Melvin Bullitt looked even worse, allowing both starting wideouts, Johnson and Kevin Walter, and tight end James Casey to get big catches in front of him. The bright spot in coverage was free safety Antoine Bethea. Not only didn’t he allow a catch, he had a crucial pick. The biggest problem for the secondary seemed to be how often and how deeply they fell for play-action fakes by Schaub. That is something I expect that will get better as they mature. At least I hope.

The Colts managed to take advantage of the Texans’ hapless LT Duane Brown (who received surprisingly little help from tight ends and backs) by moving Robert Mathis over to the right side. And Raheem Brock actually managed to get a rare sack against talented Texans RT Eric Winston, but for the most part, I’d say Winston won the battle. DT Eric Foster didn’t get a sack, but he was in Schaub’s face often enough. He really is a great contributor on third down. If you looked at Brock’s box-score stats – two tackles, a sack and a fumble recovery – you’d say he had a great day, but he didn’t. His pass-rush was intermittent and he was a speed bump against the run. Th fumble basically fell into his lap.

Actually none of the Colts stood out against the run as the Texans rushed for 122 yards and 5.08 yards a carry. Winston was hammering Brock all day, and the inside duo of C Chris Myers and RG Chris White neutralized DT Antonio Johnson. I was a little surprised by that because Mookie had looked very strong of late. But Myers is one of the NFL's most underappreciated players. When White missed a couple of series, his replacement Antoine Caldwell didn’t look nearly as good, and Mookie managed a bit more movement. Texans FB Vonta Leach was no slouch, either; clearing out linebackers and DBs on outside plays. Sigh, watching him makes me wish the Colts would reserve a roster spot on a real fullback.

There was a brief Fili Moala sighting, and he looked severely overmatched against Texans’ LG Kasey Studdard.

On offense, I expect everyone wants to talk about HB Joseph Addai and his record-shattering 69 yards on 15 carries. But as I mentioned before, the other Colts backs had higher per-carry averages – Addai’s was 4.60, Donald Brown’s was 5.40 and Chad Simpson’s was 10.00. The simple fact is that the Texans are very easy to run against, especially in a wide-open game like this. Brown certainly didn’t help his chances at more playing time by allowing a sack, but I think Addai would’ve been flattened on that play if he had been in there. No back should ever have to block Mario Williams at full speed. And don’t get too excited about Simpson. Although he did have a phenomenal 23-yard run for a score, his other run was an ugly 3-yard loss. He is what he is.

Reggie Wayne beat Dunta Robinson for a short touchdown early in the third quarter and received a well-deserved interference call, but was generally handled the rest of the game. The other Colts receivers, though, were phenomenal, catching 24 of 29 passes for 225 yards as QB Peyton Manning dinked-and-dunked the Texans' young, aggressive defense to death. He particularly targeted left corner Jacques Reeves and slot corner Glover Quinn. In fact, the only Texans who had any success in coverage (aside from Robinson), was do-it-all linebacker Brian Cushing. He not only had the pick, but played tight all day long. Of course, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention WR Pierre Garcon’s one-handed touchdown catch. He certainly is maturing quickly, as is WR Austin Collie who is making a lot of plays up the middle. But even the most dogmatic Colts homer has to be at least a little embarrassed at the gift 43-yard pass interference call Garcon received in the third quarter on the drive that ended in Wayne’s touchdown.

RT Ryan Diem allowed a sack to Texans rookie LDE Connor Barwin, but generally held his own against a variety of rushers. LT Charlie Johnson, facing Williams, had a rougher day. He didn’t allow a sack, but was beaten with a disturbing regularity. He was replaced for the final offensive series (and the game-ending kneel down) by much-maligned Tony Ugoh. Maybe it was too small a sampling to be statistically significant, but Ugoh looked a lot more solid than Johnson. Perhaps it was Johnson’s lingering injury or maybe Williams was tired by then, but Ugoh really looked like he had a much better handle on him, except for that one play where Simpson was tagged for a loss. On the next play, though, he obliterated both Williams and MLB DeMeco Ryans and sprung Simpson for at least the first half of his long touchdown run. Keep in mind that Ugoh's problems are all between his ears. Showing the ability to bounce back from a horrible play to an awesome one is a great, great sign. There could be some hope for this Ugoh kid yet.

The rest of the o-line did not impress me when it came to pass protection. There was pressure up the middle against Manning all day, even though the Texans barely blitzed. A lesser QB would have been sacked at least twice more than Manning was. RG Kyle DeVan, in particular, had a hard time handling DT Amobi Okoye.

It was a different story on running plays, though, as DeVan hammered his much-more-heralded opponent repeatedly. In fact, the Colts’ backs found plenty of nice holes between the tackles and just to the outside Diem (and don't think TE Dallas Clark helped). Less success was had on the other side, but to be fair it’s much harder to run against Williams and Cushing than it is Barwin and Antonio Smith.

Onto specials. P Pat McAfee remains a monster, having his best day as a kickoff man, with three of six kicks going for touchbacks and the Texans’ average start after his kicks at the 18.8-yard line. He also had two big punts for a 52.5 gross/48.5 net. Can't say enough good about this kid. But K Matt Stover’s perfect streak as a Colt is over after he somehow missed a 32-yard attempt at the start of the fourth quarter. Enjoy the golf course next year, Matt. Adam Vinatieri can't come back soon enough. The Colts’ return and coverage teams were ho-hum, with nobody meriting mention for either especially good or poor play.

One interesting note: LB Cody Glenn had his first scrimmage play, but it was as a halfback, not linebacker. On 1st-and-goal from the Texans’ one after a pass interference call in the fourth, the Colts came out with split backs, three tight ends (strong left) and no wide receivers. Both Glenn and Addai went out on patterns. Manning found Addai, but he was stopped by Cushing – there’s that name again! – at the line of scrimmage. Glenn arrived at Nebraska as a running back, so this could be something we’ll see again. Is he our fullback? his future there certainly looks better than it does at linebacker.

Preview

If you follow the Titans – and all Colts fans should – you’ll know that for the first half of the season they were awful except for HB Chris Johnson’s historic performance. But since Vince Young has taken over at QB, they’ve been resurgent, winning five straight after a 59-0 drubbing by the Patriots.

Stampede Blue reports that DE Dwight Freeney and CB Kelvin Hayden may be back for this game. That’s good because I really don’t like the idea of Brock going against either of the Titans’ Ts – Michael Roos or David Stewart – who are both Pro Bowl capable.

And the Colts’ young CBs could use some of Hayden’s veteran guidance, although the Titans’ receivers are nowhere near the equal of the Texans’. But keep an eye on rookie WR Kenny Britt and rookie TE Jared Cook, both of whom have come on lately. I’m reminded that in my final mock draft, I had the Colts selecting Britt, who has since emerged as the Titans’ best wide receiver and only legitimate deep threat.

But really, the big concern when you play Tennessee is always Johnson, who may be the best back in the NFL. Containing him will fall primarily to the linebackers, and I’m not really sure Wheeler is up to the job. Look for the safeties to record a lot of tackles.

The Titans’ defense has been horrible at times this year, with injuries ravaging the cornerback crew. And the starting safeties – Michael Griffin and Chris Hope – have been healthy, but have played terribly, especially in coverage. If Johnson or Ugoh (whoever starts at LT) can keep resurgent RDE Kyle Vanden Bosch off Manning, the Colts have a serious chance to light up the scoreboard.

Trust me, it’ll be a barn burner.

News

Thomas was cut Tuesday, as was CB Anthony Madison. Thomas actually started on Sunday (and did the no better or worse than so-so job we’ve grown accustomed to) before being replaced by Mathis, but he knows his hold on a job is always temporary. Thomas knows the defense and works hard, but his career peaked at competent long ago. Don’t worry if you’re a big Thomas fan, though, the’s still on Bill Polian’s speed dial.

Madison had been around the league for a while and has earned a reputation as a cornerback who’s better off playing on special teams. But he didn’t do anything worth putting down in ink on specials for the Colts, so it’s not too surprising he’s an ex-Colt.

To replace them, HB Mike Hart and DE Ervin Baldwin have been activated from the practice squad. Hart we all know. He should get playing time on specials and the odd snap on offense. His performance will largely be determined by how well he has rehabbed his injury, and could be an audition for next season’s squad. Good luck.

Baldwin is a very interesting prospect. A stocky (6015, 270) pass-rushing specialist at Michigan State with 4.74 speed, Baldwin was drafted in the seventh round by the Bears. He didn’t make the team and they cut him from the practise squad when they traded for Gaines Adams. The Colts grabbed him, and now he’s getting a chance to replace Thomas. It should be interesting to see what he does; he certainly has upside. I’m going to keep a serious eye on him.

Added to the practice squad were: QB Shane Boyd, T Drew Radovich and G Keith Gray.

Boyd had a strong arm and wheels and when he came out of Kentucky in 2005, but the knock against him was a lack of experience and finesse. Since then, he’s been with the Titans, Steelers, Centurions (of NFL Europe), Cardinals, Texans, Alouettes (of the CFL) and something called the Redwoods (of something called the UFL). He actually scored the first-ever UFL touchdown, but was benched for fellow journeyman Mike McMahon later in their season. At all those stops, he’s done nothing to indicate he’s gotten any better than he was when he stepped of the Kentucky campus. In truth, I have no idea why the Colts signed him unless they needed a Vince Young-type to practice against. I mean, could you see gawky Jim Sorgi or thick-legged Curtis Painter running the scout team as Vince?

Big (6051, 305) Radovich was seen by some as a potential high draft pick in 2008 after starting for three years as a guard and tackle at Southern Cal, but poor workouts and hip problems led him to be undrafted. He signed with the Vikings, but didn’t make the team. With good coaching, he has potential. Most sources I’ve seen prefer him inside, but I like him at a RT. If you read ColtPlay, you know I have a bias against tall guards.

Gray, who blocked for Donald Brown at UConn, has potential too. Smallish (6016, 292), he played center at a very high level in college – showing technique and tenacity – but was undrafted. He signed with the Panthers, but was cut. I’d love to see him make it, as he’s a great guy and good technician, but he needs more strength. He's my favorite of this lot.

Also on Tuesday, the Bears signed former Colts star linebacker Cato June. I’m not sure how much he has left in the tank. He couldn’t win a starting spot with the Texans (actually, he was running third at weakside linebacker behind Zach Diles and Xavier Adibi) before he broke his arm in August. They put him on IR, then later reached an injury settlement with him, making him a free agent. Now that his arm has healed, he’s looking for playing time in Chicago. The Bears have had an enormous amount of injuries at linebacker this season, so June will get his share of snaps, but he looks like a stopgap solution at this point in his career.

I also read that the Colts worked out HB Dominic Rhodes this week. Please, let’s not go down that Rhodes again.