Monday, January 11, 2010

Colts backups vs. Buffalo: Defense



As we explored the offensive subs who played against Buffalo in week 17 earlier, let’s take a look at some of the lesser-known defensive guys. When you consider Buffalo ran for 248 yards and had a 120.8 NFL passer rating, it’s not surprising there’s not much good to talk about.

DT Fili Moala (54 of 72 snaps): Moala had been playing poorly all year, and showed no improvement against Buffalo. Facing off against Geoff Hangartner and Richie Incognito, he made them look like Pro Bowlers. He had one tackle and added nothing to the pass rush.

DT John Gill (53 of 72 snaps): Gill didn’t get much push either, but he was active in run stopping and was involved in a couple of nice plays. His day was nothing to write home about, but much better than Moala’s.

DE Ervin Baldwin (53 of 72 snaps): Baldwin mounted some rush (including getting a QB hit), and was probably the Colts’ best D-lineman against the run. I’ll forgive the missed tackle for the stops at the line.

OLB Ramon Humber (68 of 72 snaps): I still think he’s better inside, and he was pushed around in the run game as O-Linemen got right to him. He needs protection. He had a nice day in coverage, though, easily handling the Bills tight ends.

OLB Cody Glenn (26 of 72 snaps): The erstwhile fullback did not stand out on defense, getting schooled by Terrell Owens in coverage once, and adding little in the fight against the run. He also missed a shoulda-had tackle on special teams.

CB TJ Rushing (1 of 72 snaps): They ran him out there once on a 3rd-and-10 to cover Owens in the slot. Rushing passed him off to Tim Jennings, who allowed a three-yard completion, forcing a punt.

FS Aaron Francisco (72 of 72 snaps): He wasn’t as horrible in coverage as I thought he would be – although he was bad – but he was atrocious against the run, missing as many tackles as he made. It was so wrong to cut Matt Giordano for this guy.

SS Jamie Silva (60 of 72 snaps): Silva actually was very good in coverage, allowing just a couple of short catches in front of him before making solid tackles, and swatting away a short pass meant for Lee Evans. But like all the other Colt defenders, he was not much help on running plays.

Sunday, January 10, 2010

Colts backups vs. Buffalo: Offense

I’m not sure the season-ending loss in Buffalo is really worth reviewing for various reasons – including the snow and the lacklustre effort the Colts starters gave* – but it did give us a look at some backups. Here’s ColtPlay’s quick look at some of them:

HB Mike Hart (37 of 52 snaps) and HB Donald Brown (15 of 52 snaps): Both did terribly. I’m sure their fans would like to blame the weather, their offensive line or their lack of a passing attack, but that would hardly explain how Freddie Jackson ran for 212 yards and fullback Corey McIntyre added another 32 on just eight carries. The weather was the same on both sides of the ball, the Bill’s o-line is less talented than the Colts’ (even with backups in there) and Ryan Fitzpatrick is fairly marginal. If you take out Hart’s fluke 15-yard scamper in what was basically a four-wide situation in the 3rd quarter, they ran 13 times for nine yards. Not great considering the Bills had the 31st-ranked rushing defense coming into the game. Hart caught two of four passes thrown his way for 16 yards, and Brown was not thrown to. Both did their jobs as pass-blockers, but little else.

LT Tony Ugoh (52 of 52 snaps): He has some trouble in pass-pro, allowing penetration by both Aaron Schobel and Chris Ellis, but a lot of that was Painter’s fault for holding onto the ball too long. He was so-so in the running game.

RT Michael Toudouze (52 of 52 snaps): This was my first prolonged look at Toudouze, and he was about as good as I thought he’d be, maybe a touch better. He, too, allowed some non-blitz penetration – although he basically neutralized Ryan Denney – but was better than the other Colts when it came to run blocking. That’s not saying he was good, just better than the others.

LG Mike Pollak (31 of 52 snaps): Pollak hadn’t really played much since he was benched in week eight after allowing two sacks. And on his 10th play against Buffalo, he allowed a sack to Kyle Williams. He was pretty solid in pass-pro for the most part other than that one Hail Mary-style play, but was just plain awful in the running game, having his hands full with Williams all day.

C Jamie Richard (31 of 52 snaps): As expected, Richard was pretty adept in pass-pro, but less able to handle Williams and Marcus Stroud in the run game. I’d grade him the best of the non-regular linemen who played against the Bills.

TE Jacob Tamme (34 of 52 snaps): Didn't do anything noteworthy as a blocker; caught one pass for 21 yards (but it was just one of four thrown to him.)

TE Colin Cloherty (21 of 52 snaps): Was he out there? Yes, he was. He caught one pass, a desperation dump off in the right flat for two yards on 3rd-and-15, and was promptly tackled by Drayton Florence. He was barely noticeable as a blocker either way.

WR Hank Baskett (49 of 52 snaps): He had a very, very tough day. Despite facing coverage from also-rans like Reggie Corner and Jon Corto, Baskett got open rarely and when he did, did not show great hands or concentration. Catching just one of five passes thrown to him for seven yards (and that was from Manning when Corner gave a big cushion), he later got injured. A lot of the blame goes to Painter, whose accuracy was terrible, but Baskett simply did not look good.

WR Sam Giguere (32 of 52 snaps): It’s hard to judge a rookie wideout in such a situation, but Giguere failed to catch either pass thrown his way and totally whiffed on a run block. He did however, look good as a kick returner (5-122-0), considering the footing.

QB Curtis Painter (31 of 52 snaps): The Colts have no mercy for this guy. Maybe they shouldn’t. He was outstandingly bad, passing for 39 yards on four completions of 17 passes thrown, with one interception. I realize the weather was bad and all that, but Fitzpatrick’s 120.8 NFL passer rating in the same game makes Painter’s 15.1 (7.5 in non-pressure situations) look especially bad. He also dropped the ball on a draw handoff, which the Bills’ Chris Kelsay picked up. Two plays later, Fitzpatrick hit Terrell Owens for a long touchdown.

*Did you see how Kelvin Hayden backed off trying to tackle Terrell Owens at the Colts' five on his long touchdown reception? Shameful.

Thursday, January 7, 2010

Smolko added to PS

The latest addition to the Colts practice squad is tight end Isaac Smolko. If his name sounds familiar, it's because he’s been on the Colts’ practice squad before (briefly), and played against them as a Jaguar.

After an okay career at Penn State (13-192-0 receiving as a senior), he was not drafted in 2006 and signed with the Steelers. Despite a productive preseason, he was cut just before the opener.

The following offseason, he signed with the Jaguars. Again, he was one of the final cuts, but joined the Jags’ practice squad, on which they toyed with the idea of converting him to a defensive end. They activated him a couple of time and he saw action mostly on special teams, including against Indy. He caught one of the two passes thrown his way that season, for five yards in a regular-season loss to Houston. In the Jags two playoff games that year (he even started one because the Jags’ first possession was 1st-and-goal from the one and he was part of the short-yardage package), Smolko saw action mainly as a blocker but caught one pass for seven yards.

In 2008, the Jags cut him twice before preseason. He spent two weeks on the Colts practice squad before signing on with the Ravens. They cut him after preseason, signed him again for 2009 and cut him again.

The book on Smolko is that he’s an okay blocker (better in pass-pro than running) and a very good short area receiver. Despite running a 4.70 at his pro day (6043/246 btw), he doesn’t play that fast and is a dump-off option only. I don’t see him as a long-term option, but rather a reliable veteran who can fill in as needed.

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Signings

To be perfectly clear, the Colts signed WR Dudley Guice Jr. to a future contract. As soon as the regular season ends, teams are allowed to sign players to contracts that begin after the season. Playoff teams are not supposed to announce them because they still have active rosters.

While the rest of the Colts’ signings are still unknown to me, I have seen a few former Colts sign to other (non-playoff teams). Here’s a rundown:

C Steve Justice (Panthers): Justice is technically sound, but not all that strong. He would have to work hard to make the team.
HB Lance Ball (Broncos): Nobody denies Ball’s ability to grind out yards between the tackles, but he’s not speedy, a polished receiver or much of a blocker. The Broncos are famous for getting the most out of their backs, so it should be interesting to see what happens.
DT Terrance Taylor (Lions): A total washout with the Colts, Taylor went back home to Michigan. The Lions are desperate for depth at the position, and Taylor could turn out to be a decent part-time player for them.

Also, CB Keiwan Ratliff was signed by the Bengals to an active contract for the playoffs.

Here’s a pre-draft video that scouts Guice.



Better Late than Never

I had just put the kids to bed and was waiting for my wife to come home from work when I went on Facebook. Immediately, an instant chat came up. It was from Dudley Guice Jr., a wide receiver who had been with the Titans and the Blue Bombers of the CFL.

He pointed out we hadn’t talked in a while and asked how I was doing. I told him I was good, my latest book was selling well and that I had two more coming this year. Then I asked how he was doing. And he told me he had just signed a three-year deal with the Colts.

How I got to know Guice is sort of interesting. His was one of many names that came up when the Colts were working out draft-eligible players last year. I vaguely remembered seeing him at the Texas vs. The Nation Game – an exhibition bowl for small-school players that also featured future Colts Curtis Painter, Drew Willy, John Matthews and Adrian Grady. In that game, he was thrown to six times, and caught five for 70 yards and a touchdown. But what really stood out was his size – he looked much bigger than the other wideouts and the defensive backs covering him.

So I looked at his stats, his bio and what video I could get my hands on. He was very productive at Northwestern State in Louisiana as a receiver, runner and return man. Nobody had anything but good to say about him. He graduated Magna Cum Laude with a 3.60 GPA and started taking classes towards his master’s degree. He had even turned down an internship with the FBI to play ball. His pro day numbers were off the chart. He measured in at 6024/209. He ran 1.49 (10), 2.58 (20) and 4.40 (40). He benched 12 times, leapt 39.0 inches up and 10’5 across. The shuttle took him 4.01 and the cone drill 6.61. Oh, and he did a ton of charity work, especially after Hurricane Katrina ripped up the South.

So I got in touch with him. Turned out he was a great guy. I interviewed him for my on-again, off-again blog and made him a Facebook friend.

He didn’t get drafted, but signed with the Titans. As is typical of NFL teams with a weak spot – as with Tennessee’s wide receivers – they brought in a million guys in to compete for few spots. Guice was cut. Rather than stay on a practice squad, he signed with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers of the CFL. It was too late in their season for him to make much of a splash (6-76-0 receiving with different rules and a different ball). But it was interesting to see him deal with the Winnipeg winter – he is originally from Mississippi and Winnipeg is north of North Dakota.

So we stayed in touch, and yesterday he told me he was finally – as I predicted long ago – a Colt. It’s hard to say what exactly his potential is, but I can say the Colts have done great things with lesser players. He’s still raw, but definitely has the tools and is a quick learner. I see him opening camp next year as a back-up on the outside.

College stats
2008: 35-606-5 receiving (missed three of 12 games due to injury)
2007: 28-430-4 receiving, 11-84-2 rushing, 11-182-0 kick returns
2006: 14-138-2 receiving
2005: 1-39-0 receiving

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Breaking News!

I was on Facebook and saw a blip on chat. It was Dudley Guice Jr., who told me he had just signed a three-year deal with the Colts.

All-Rookie Team

Okay, here’s where I’d normally review/preview, but I’m not sure the Buffalo game is worth reviewing and I’m still not sure who to preview. So, while looking around at my Pro Bowl post, I thought I’d lovingly slap together an all-rookie team. There are some cheats – like guys on IR – but they aren’t really going to play anyone anyway.

QB: Mark Sanchez, Jets
This was difficult. All three first rounders -- Detroit’s Matt Stafford, Sanchez and Tampa’s Josh Freeman – played, and all had similar results. Their NFL passer rating ranged from 59.9 to 63.0. At one point in the season, I would have given the award to Freeman, who added a much needed spark to his team. And I still believe Stafford will be the best of the lot in the long run. But it’s impossible to ignore the fact that Sanchez brought his team to the playoffs. Colts: Curtis Painter played. That’s all the good I can say.

FB: Tyrell Sutton, Panthers
I really wanted the Colts to draft this guy, but they didn’t. A productive college halfback who lacked footspeed, the Panthers (who already had beloved veteran Brad Hoover and draft pick Tony Flammetta) gave him a shot at fullback. And he outplayed them both. Colts: Does not compute.

HB: Beanie Wells, Cardinals
Denver’s Knowshon Moreno had more rushing yards, but Wells ran better and with far more authority. Wells has fumble issues (but so does Moreno) and can’t block at all, but is a better receiver. Colts: Top pick Donald Brown suffered through an injury-plagued season, but showed promise.

WR: Percy Harvin, Vikings
WR: Austin Collie, Colts
There are some great receivers this year, but these two stand out. Harvin can score from anywhere, and Collie is tough and has outstanding hands. Other options include the Eagles’ Jeremy Maclin, the 49ers’ Micheal Crabtree, the Giants’ Hakeem Nicks and the Titans’ Kenny Britt. Colts: Collie.

TE: Brandon Pettigrew, Lions
Pettigrew was not just the best receiver of the lot – and in a very difficult situation – but also the only one who blocked at all. And he blocked quite well. Colts: None played.

LT: Sebastian Vollmer, Patriots
RT: Michael Oher, Ravens
Say what you will Colts fans, this Vollmer kid didn’t just exceed expectations, he looked like a very experienced and talented veteran. In 11 starts he had four penalties and allowed no sacks. Sure he had help – they all do. And Oher deserved the hype. While he had some problems with speed rushers, he was never bullied and was a load in the running game. Minnesota’s Phil Loadholt played well in pass pro, not so much on run plays. Colts: None played.

LG: Eric Wood, Bills
RG: Louis Vasquez, Chargers
Wood was the best player on a very bad line. Vasquez wasn’t great, but held up well, and has a great future. Colts: Kyle DeVan was a pretty good starter, but doesn’t officially count as a rookie.

C: Alex Mack, Browns
He started poorly, but by the end of the season he was one of the best centers in the league. Colts: None played.

RDE: Michael Johnson, Bengals
LDE: Matt Shaughnessy, Raiders
He only started twice, but Shaughnessy played well against both the run and the pass when he had a chance. And he improved as the season went along. Johnson didn’t play particularly well, but was slightly better than the next-best rook, Seattle’s Everette Brown. Colts: None played.

RDT: Terrance Knighton, Jaguars
LDT: Roy Miller, Buccanners
Knighton adds just about nothing to the pass rush, but is a beast against the run. Miller gets the nod over New England’s Myron Pryor, though neither was special. Colts: Second-round pick Fili Moala played sparingly and poorly. Fourth-rounder Terrance Taylor was cut in camp and not signed to the practice squad.

ROLB: Clay Matthews, Packers
LOLB: Brian Cushing, Texans
No question here. Both of these players were outstanding. Colts: Ramon Humber played decently, but better inside.

MLB: James Laurinaitis, Rams
Laurinaitis wasn’t as impressive as the outside duo, but he held his own on a terrible, terrible team and showed flashes of future greatness. Colts: Humber played okay, but did not look like a future starter.

RCB: Jerraud Powers, Colts
LCB: Vontae Davis, Dolphins
Powers was a major surprise after starters Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Hayden went down. Davis was run out there because the Dolphins lacked other options. Aside from the penalties, he did pretty well. Colts: Besides Powers, Jacob Lacey started eight games and almost knocked Davis off my team.

SS: Louis Delmas, Lions
FS: Jairus Byrd, Bills
Byrd was not great overall, but nine picks says he makes it. Delmas played better. Neither is a strong safety though. If I had to pick a real strong safety, it would have been Oakland’s Michael Mitchell – who played well in limited exposure – or Chicago’s Al Afalava –who played a lot, but not all that well. Colts: A guy named De’Von Hall played a few snaps, but was cut.

K: Ryan Succop, Chiefs
Hard to argue with 22 of 25 on field goals. Colts: None played.

P: Pat McAfee, Colts
This kid was an outstanding punter, a top-notch kickoff man and a flawless holder. Colts: McAfee.

KR: Percy Harvin, Vikings
Harvin deserves it, but you gotta like Arizona’s LaRod Stephens-Howling a lot too. Colts: Sam Giguere took the reins in the final game and did okay in the snow. He could get a chance to win the spot in next year’s camp. But like DeVan, he does not actually qualify as a rookie.

PR: Quan Crosby, Bengals
He had a great average, but his two fumbles scared me a bit. Colts: None played.

Monday, January 4, 2010

Manning and the ol' 3-4

It won’t go away. That old bugaboo about how Peyton Manning can’t succeed against 3-4 defenses. I thought I spoke to that definitively last year, but still it persists. It’s actually ridiculous when you consider how little difference their actually is between 3-4 and 4-3 defenses. Anyway, let’s look at the stats:

Game 1 Jacksonville 3-4
Total: 38-28-301-1-1 (1) 94.3
Blitzed: 11-7-71-0-0 (1) 82.0

Game 2 Miami 3-4
Total: 23-14-303-2-0 (1) 133.9
Blitz: 7-4-76-1-0 (1) 134.5

Game 3 Arizona 3-4
Total: 35-24-394-4-1 (0) 132.3
Blitz: 8-5-72-0-1 (0) 52.1

Game 4 Seattle 4-3
Total: 41-31-353-2-1 (0) 107.1
Blitz: 12-7-96-1-0 (0) 111.8

Game 5 Tennessee 4-3
Total: 44-36-309-3-1 (0) 109.2
Blitz: 0-0-0-0-0 (0) n/a

Game 6 St. Louis 4-3
Total: 34-23-235-3-0 (0) 116.7
Blitz: 9-5-46-0-0 (0) 69.7

Game 7 San Francisco 3-4
Total: 48-31-347-0-0 (3) 86.0
Blitz: 21-16-188-0-0 (1) 102.9

Game 8 Houston 4-3
Total: 50-34-318-1-1 (2) 83.6
Blitz: 11-7-76-0-1 (0) 46.0

Game 9 New England 3-4
Total: 44-28-327-4-2 (1) 97.4
Blitz: 7-5-64-0-0 (1) 99.7

Game 10 Baltimore 3-4
Total: 31-22-302-1-2 (0) 85.7
Blitz: 11-9-154-0-1 (0) 80.9

Game 11 Houston 4-3
Total: 35-27-244-3-2 (2) 100.2
Blitz: 3-3-21-2-0 (0) 135.4

Game 12 Tennessee 4-3
Total: 37-24-270-1-0 (0) 95.6
Blitz: 2-1-11-0-0 (0) 66.7

Game 13 Denver 3-4
Total: 42-20-220-4-3 (0) 65.6
Blitz: 13-8-104-1-1 (0) 80.3

Game 14 Jacksonville 3-4
Total: 30-23-308-4-1 (0) 134.4
Blitz: 11-8-150-1-0 (0) 145.1

Game 15 Jets 4-3
Total: 21-14-192-0-0 (0) 95.7
Blitz: 12-7-92-0-0 (0) 82.6

And I’m not including the Buffalo game because: a) I don’t have the metrics yet, b) it was played in a foot of snow and c) Manning didn’t really give a real Manning effort (we’ll talk about that later).

So what have we found out:

1. In a game-by-game basis (I won’t do it weighted, because then I would have to weight which defences Manning faced on a play-by-play basis – I love you guys, but not that much), Manning averaged a 103.7 NFL passer rating against 3-4 teams and 101.2 against 4-3 teams. Basically an inconsequential difference.
2. Although Manning had his worst game against a 3-4 team (65.6 rating against Denver), he had his best games against them too. In fact, his highest rating against a 4-3 team was just 116.7, but he had three games of 132.3 or higher against 3-4 teams.
3. Although it varies from game to game, blitzing has proven neither to be very effective or very foolhardy against him
4. If you look at the play-by-play metrics, you can see that no team (not even the Colts) rely solely on one defensive formation, and most of the so-called 3-4 teams play with four, five or even two defensive linemen just as often as three.

I just hope this sort of talk comes to an end soon.

Saturday, January 2, 2010

At Least Ervin Baldwin and John Gill are Still Healthy


Using the Colts own depth chart from colts.com (which is notoriously inaccurate), and the official NFL injury report, ColtPlay will give you an idea of who will play and who won’t tomorrow. I have removed the players who definitely won’t play, have grayed out the guys who are questionable and kinda grayed out the guys who are probable.

WR Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie
LT Charlie Johnson, Tony Ugoh
LG Ryan Lilja,
Jamey Richard
C Jeff Saturday
RG Kyle DeVan, Mike Pollak
RT Michael Toudouze
TE Dallas Clark, Colin Cloherty
WR Pierre Garcon, Hank Baskett, Sam Giguere
QB Peyton Manning, Curtis Painter
RB Joseph Addai, Donald Brown, Mike Hart
FB/H-B Jacob Tamme

LE Robert Mathis, Keyunta Dawson, Ervin Baldwin
LT Eric Foster, John Gill
RT Daniel Muir, Fili Moala
RE Dwight Freeney, Raheem Brock
LLB Philip Wheeler, Cody Glenn
MLB Gary Brackett, Freddy Keiaho
RLB Ramon Humber
LCB Kelvin Hayden, Jacob Lacey, T.J. Rushing
RCB Tim Jennings
SS Melvin Bullitt, Jamie Silva
FS Antoine Bethea, Aaron Francisco

P Pat McAfee
K Matt Stover
H Pat McAfee
PR T.J. Rushing, Pierre Garcon
KR T.J. Rushing, Austin Collie
PC Justin Snow, Jacob Tamme
LS Justin Snow, Jacob Tamme