But, of course, nobody plays on paper. In reality, Wayne will be 33 this season, is beyond his peak and his contract ends after this season. Garçon is streaky, and goes through long funks in which he can’t catch anything. Collie has concussion problems that could end his career, Gonzalez is more injury-prone than Bob Sanders, White is still unproven and Smith hasn’t shown anything on offense yet.
Reggie Wayne
2010 stats: 16 games/16 starts, 111-1,355-6 receiving, 1/1 fumbles
Contract status: Signed through 2011
Analysis: You might not remember it, but when the Colts drafted Wayne in the first round of the 2001 draft, it was not a popular pick. He was neither fast nor strong, his critics said. The Colts needed defense more than another receiver. Heck, they pointed out, they already had Marvin Harrison. Well, it’s ten years later, and Wayne has caught 787 passes for 10,748 yards and 69 touchdowns, appeared in two Super Bowls and five Pro Bowls. He’s lost a step or so, but his experience, concentration, work ethic and rapport with quarterback Peyton Manning keep him one of the league’s best. I think it’s safe to write down another 100-catch, 1,200-yard season from Wayne, but his replacement will have to arrive soon.
Pierre Garçon
2010 stats: 14 games/14 starts, 67-784-6 receiving
Contract status: Signed through 2011, due for a raise
Analysis: Although Garçon is a great story and an even better guy, I’m not sure he’ll ever be a No. 1 receiver. Drafted in the sixth round of the 2008 draft, he spent his rookie year as a backup and special teamer. In 2009, he lost the No. 2 receiver job to Gonzalez and the slot position to Collie, but after Gonzalez was hurt, Garçon stepped in and was a revelation, catching 47-765-4 and establishing himself as the team’s deep threat. But he regressed in 2010 – even more than the other offensive skill players – and lost a great deal of Manning’s trust. It’s likely that Garçon could re-establish himself as a deep threat, but his average hands and reluctance to go over the middle mean that he’ll never be better than No. 2.
Austin Collie
2010 stats: 9 games/6 starts, 58-649-8 receiving, 1/1 fumbles
Contract status: Signed through 2012
Analysis: Until he was hurt, Collie was actually the Colts’ most effective receiver, better even than Wayne and all-everything tight end Dallas Clark. In fact, he may have been the best short-range receiver in the league this side of Wes Welker. But two terrifying concussions in one season landed him on injured reserve. It’s hard to predict how a player will return from concussions, but if Collie is anywhere near what he was before the hits, the Colts are set in the slot. So far, the prognosis is good. "I don't know if you can say that until he gets on the field and actually plays," team president Bill Polian said. 'Thus far, all the signs are positive."
Blair White
2010 stats: 13 games/4 starts, 36-355-5 receiving, 10-80-0 punt returns, 2 special-teams tackles, 1/0 fumbles
Contract status: Signed through 2012
Analysis: An undrafted free agent the Colts promoted from their practice squad, White proved he belongs in the NFL. Despite being a tall long strider, White played better in the slot. He’s fearless and nifty and has excellent hands. He hasn’t shown that he can do much after the catch, but his sure-handedness allowed him to assume the primary punt return job.
Anthony Gonzalez
2010 stats: 2 games/0 starts, 5-67-0 receiving
Contract status: Signed through 2011
Analysis: A first-round pick in 2007, Gonzalez was seen more as a complement to Wayne rather than his ultimate replacement. Gonzo put together two solid but unspectacular seasons in that role, but his 2009 and 2010 seasons were wiped out by major knee injuries. If he comes back full-strength, Gonzo would compete with Garçon for a starting spot outside. If he loses, Gonzalez could have a hard time sticking to the roster as Collie and White have established themselves inside and unlike Garçon, Gonzalez offers little on special teams.
Taj Smith
2010 stats: 5 games/0 starts, 3 special-teams tackles, 1 special teams assist, 1 forced fumble, 1-0-0 fumble recovery (1 blocked punt recovered for a touchdown)
Contract status: Signed through 2012
Analysis: Smith didn’t get drafted after a broken collarbone as a senior at Syracuse and a terrible showing at the combine. Despite his official 4.59 forty, Smith is actually one of the fastest football players I have ever seen, and a powerful athlete. He put those skills together in kick coverage for the Colts last year, and played like a demon. He didn’t play much on offense in the regular season, but made some terrific catches and runs in the preseason (and some lamentable drops). An DUI arrest in January 2010 tarnished Smith’s character with some fans, but I’ve spoken with him a number of times and he seems like an outstanding young man who made a mistake.
Chris Brooks
2010 stats: 1 game/0 starts
Contract status: Signed through 2011
Analysis: Brooks is a project. He’s a big (6016/215), fast (4.42) receiver who didn’t start a single game at Nebraska. An undrafted rookie, he signed with Tampa Bay and caught three of four passes for 50 yards, but also fumbled. He spent most of the year on the Colts’ practice squad, appearing in one game on kick coverage and recording no stats. To make it in the NFL, he’ll have to show consistent hands and the ability to burn DBs deep.
Kole Heckendorf
2010 stats: None
Contract status: Signed through 2011
Analysis: After a ridiculously productive career at North Dakota State, Heckendorf went undrafted in 2009. Since then, he’s been on five NFL teams but has yet to see game action. He’s tall but thin, with decent but not great speed. A tough, smart kid who works hard to help his quarterback, his best shot in the NFL would be as a slot guy, catching short passes and making yards after the catch.
Also played with the Colts in 2010:
Brandon James
2010 stats: 3 games/0 starts, 6-40-0 receiving, 14-229-0 kick returns, 7-35-0 punt returns
Contract status: Unsigned
Analysis: After a very productive career as a combination halfback/receiver/returner at Florida, the 5’6, 176-pound James did not show enough on offense or special teams to prevent the Colts from cutting ties with him.
Kenneth Moore
2010 stats: 2 games/0 starts, 6-36-0 punt returns, 2/1 fumbles
Contract status: Unsigned
Analysis: Moore had been hanging around the NFL since 2006 as a return man. When injuries struck the Colts, they gave him a shot, but cut him after he fumbled twice against Washington.
What about 2011?: Like I said, if they are healthy, the Colts don’t need anything – except an eventual replacement for Wayne. Wayne, Garçon and Gonzo have all proven they can play outside, Collie is an excellent slot man, White can play inside or out, while Smith has definite potential (and a job on specials), while stranger things have happened than Brooks and Heckendorf developing into players.
Free agency: Nope.
Draft: In other years, I would say the Colts might draft a receiver high given their situation, nurture him and hope he replaces Wayne. But severe needs all over the offensive line, at defensive tackle and perhaps strong safety, I just can’t see it happening. Instead, I think the Colts will select a talented small-schooler to develop – I think too many teams are high on Mount Union’s Cecil Shorts, but UTEP’s Kris Adams has the stuff if he gains muscle without sacrificing athleticism. They could also select a return specialist like Mississippi State’s Leon Berry or Utah’s Antoine “Shaky” Smithson.
Some stats:
Catch percentage
Collie 81.69
White 63.16
Wayne 63.07
Garçon 56.78
Gonzalez 55.56
James 54.55
Yards per reception
Gonzalez 13.40
Wayne 12.21
Garçon 11.70
Collie 11.19
White 9.86
James 6.67
Yards per target
Collie 9.14
Wayne 7.70
Gonzalez 7.44
Garçon 6.64
White 6.23
James 3.64
First down percentage
White 66.67
Wayne 64.86
Garçon 61.19
Gonzalez 60.00
Collie 55.17
James 50.00
YAC average
Collie 5.41
Garçon 4.03
Wayne 3.95
Gonzalez 3.60
James 2.33
White 2.19
Average depth
Gonzalez 9.80
Wayne 8.26
Garçon 7.67
White 7.67
Collie 5.78
James 4.34
Catches over the middle
White 7-71-2
Collie 7-46-1
Wayne 6-65-0
Gonzalez 2-40-0
Garçon 2-15-0
James 0-0-0
No comments:
Post a Comment