Monday, March 31, 2008

Catching up

A few items to discuss:

Comp picks. Not quite as many as expected, but three sixth rounders should be cool. With their addition, the Colts now have one second, one third, one fourth, one fifth, four sixths and one seventh for nine picks in all. The picks are:

Second round: 59
Third round: 93
Fourth round: 127
Fifth round: 161
Sixth round: 196, 201, 202, 205
Seventh round: 236

Prospect bios. I'll get to them, give me a break, I gotta make a living.

What position will the Colts draft first? I see that there's a lot of Cliff Avril love on the Net, but I dunno about him or any other defensive end being the top pick (especially since Josh Thomas re-signed). Bill Polian hasn't picked what fans thought was the obvious guy since Rob Morris and that wasn't exactly a lottery winner.

If we take a look at every player I have the Colts on record talking to and compare them with where New Era Scouting's Luke Paul Chandler thinks they'll be picked, we see a pattern. A caveat here: I have no especial fondness for Chandler's prognostications, but he's the most reliable of those whose seven-rounders I've seen. Just for kicks, I'll also throw in where Colin Lindsay of Great Blue North and where Couchscout.com rate them. The first set of numbers are Chandler's, the second, Lindsay's, and the third are from Couchscout.

Anthony Collins T 33/65/179
Gosder Cherilus T 44/28/51
Marcus Howard DE 115/120/43
Eddie Royal WR 116/83/92 slot/return specialist
Jon Greco T 129/112/106 could move inside
Jack Williams CB 139/159/202
Curtis Johnson DE 169/--/186
Kerry Brown G 204/--/335
Jeremy Geathers DE 209/--/1013
Titus Brown DE 224/--/291
Mackenzy Bernardeau G 243/--/122
Dan Davis DT --/--/573
Dan Zeidman P --/--/-- kickoff specialist
Jon Banks LB --/--/--
Danny Lansanah LB --/--/649
Jayson Foster WR --/--/--
Michael Peterson TE --/--/323
Thomas Brown HB --/136/209 I think Chandler just plain forgot about him, he'll be drafted
Bernard Morris QB --/--/245 may be given a look at WR or S
Mike Martinez C --/--/--
Jameel McClain DE --/--/201 some say he's a better fit at ILB, I disagree
Joe Fields S --/--/273
Paul Cleaver TE --/--/--
Shemiah LaGrande DT --/--/--
Kareem Huggins HB --/--/--
Jordan Senn OLB --/--/1834
James Banks WR --/--/550
Piotr Czech K --/--/--
Craig Hormann QB --/--/--
Tommy Ellingworth WR --/--/989 slot/return specialist
Justin Beaver HB --/--/--
Jalen Parmele HB --/--/152 he'll be drafted, good back
Jonna Lee LB --/--/--
Alley Broussard HB --/--/360
Blake Mitchell QB --/--/786

To me, it looks like it'll be an offensive lineman.

Thursday, March 27, 2008

The revolving door

Quick sketches of the many, many players the Colts have looked at in recent days:

Andy Studebaker DE Wheaton College (6030, 251, 4.61): Absolutely destroyed offenses at low-level (6.5 TFL, 5 sacks in 5 games as a senior, 24.5 TFL, 17.5 sacks in full season as a junior). Has speed, athleticism and determination to make the move from Divison III, but chances will be hampered if team tries to move him to OLB. This ACFA All-American will definitely be in somebody's camp and could well be drafted late if he can show he has recovered from the ligament damage that limited him as a senior.

Dan Davis DT Connecticut (6014, 287, 4.96): Didn't have eye-catching stats, but this Outland candidate was a rock in the middle despite facing a lot of double teams. A classic Colts-type penetrator, Davis is better against the run than the pass at this point and will have to learn pass-rush moves to earn any playing time in the NFL.

Dan Zeidman P Idaho State (6003, 205, 4.78):

Anthony Collins T Kansas (6055, 317, 5.54c/5.35pd):

Eddie Royal WR Virginia Tech (5095, 184, 4.39):

Titus Brown DE Mississippi State (6024, 246, 4.86):

Jon Banks OLB Iowa State (6024, 220, 4.76): This honor roller is a chase-and-tag outside linebacker who excells against the run and is better in coverage than as a blitzer. A former free safety, Banks has much better range than his forty would indicate, and racks up huge tackle numbers if not a lot of big plays. Has special-teams value in the NFL.

Danny Lansanah ILB Connecticut (6005, 251, 4.71): Smaller and slower than NFL scouts like, but a solid all-around football player. A leather-helmet throwback type Lansanah domintaed between the tackles (121 total tackles as a senior, 14 for loss), and is much better against the pass than he gets credit for (2 sacks, 4-77-1 interceptions, 3 PBU). He won't wow you in workouts, but his game tape will drop your jaw. Most teams would consider him a fringe guy, but the Colts will probably take a long look at him, trying unearth another Gary Brackett. Lansanah, a former power forward, is not above proving his worth on special teams.

Jayson Foster WR Georgia Southern (5071, 169, 4.41): Yeah the guy shops in the children's department, but check his college stats to see how important he was to his team:

569-3,835-54 rushing (6.74 per attempt)
233-143-2,099-15-7 passing (9.01 per attempt)
50-661-5 receiving (13.22 per attempt)
34-420-2 punt returns (12.35 per attempt)
12-363-0 kick returns (30.25 per attempt)

Face it, dude can play ball. He may be tiny, but he's also explosive, elusive, fast and surprisingly strong. And he is an athlete. His vertical is 37, his broad is 10'6 and the little dude actually hoisted the bar 11 times. This kind of athlete deserves to be in the NFL, but obviously he can kiss any dream of playing quarterback or halfback in the pros good-bye. So throw him in as a slot receiver/return man, right? Easier said than done. The weakest part of his game is his hands. I see Foster being drafted in the seventh or signed as a free agent, then toiling away on a practice squad for a year. If during that time he can convince coach his hands are solid, he could have a bright future as a punt returner.

Michael Peterson TE Northwest Missouri State (6021, 247, 4.59):

Curtis Johnson DE Clark-Atlanta (6025, 242, 4.69c/4.60pd):

Alley Broussard HB Missouri Southern State (6002, 235, 4.75):

Blake Mitchell QB South Carolina (6022, 207, 4.78):


• Also, former Colt Anthony McFarland signed with the Steelers, but was released after failing his physical. Looks like the end of the line for ol' Booger. Meanwhile, Colts president Bill Polian signed a contract extension for, according to Colts owner Jim Irsay "three or four years."

Monday, March 24, 2008

Two the Colts need, one they like

The Colts looked at another three players — two at positions of obvious need, and one who could well muscle his way onto the roster:"

Thomas Brown HB Georgia (5083, 204, 4.51c/4.42pd): Back in 2006, when the Colts were looking for Edgerrin James' replacement, I gave Jospeh Addai his props, but the back I really wanted was Maurice Jones-Drew. While Addai did everything competently, MJD had the crazy magic very few backs are blessed with and — even better — so much strength that he was a better inside runner than all but a few backs 25 pounds heavier. Brown is just like MJD, but not quite as strong, or as fast, or as talented. Still he is a greatly talented back with NFL skills. Super-quick with deep speed, Brown is hard to catch and strong and determined enough to be difficult to bring down once he is caught. And, like MJD, he almost as good in the passing and return games as he is on the ground.

If size was the only strike against him, Brown would be a sure-fire first-day pick, but scouts worry a great deal about his durability. At Georgia, he played in 40 of 48 possible games (starting just 27 despite having his best season as a frosh), suffering from a wide array of injuries. Right now, I see Brown as a fifth-rounder. Why he'll never be able to drag a team behind him, he'll be a great third-down, change-of-pace halfback and return specialist (33-749-1 in college, a 22.70 average) — if he can stay in one piece.

Kerry Brown G Appalachian State (6053, 308, 5.38): Around draft time, people ignore guards and when they do think about the position, all they really look at are failed tackles, projecting them inside. But Brown is a real live, guard and a good one. Although he lacks truly quick feet — as evidenced by his play at tackle in post-season games — he understands pass-blocking and uses his hands and arms well. He's smart and a hard-worker who understands the importance of finishing his blocks. He has some nice pop, moves well laterally and can be a monster on the second level. He'll need some coaching up, but is a legitimate prospect who may well find himself waiting by the phone when the seventh round opens.

Bernard Morris QB Marshall (6030, 223, 4.68c/4.61pd): Despite his obvious athletic ability (he was also a great basketball player), Morris was a walk-on who did everything he could to win the starting quarterback job at Marshall. While there, he showed a strong arm, running ability, great vision, intelligence and courage. Too bad he also showed little accuracy (especially on deep balls), a penchant for streakiness and a shocking lack of pocket presence. While some of those thing can be coached out of him, Morris probably doesn't have the tools to be a starting quarterback in the NFL. Still, he could be a very good back-up. He's one of those guy who can rally a team and will things to happen. There has been some talk of converting him to wide receiver or safety, but I wouldn't put too much stock in it. Check out the Hula Bowl tapes, and you'll be a fan. He's a second-day pick.

Saturday, March 22, 2008

Subtraction by subtraction

No surprise or anything, but the Colts declined to match the Bengals' offer for Ben Utecht, making him a Bengal.

This leads to me updating my list of Colts' needs:

• a starting-quality tight end who can block
• a starting-quality guard, it would be better if he could also play center
• a ready-to-contribute wide receiver who can play slot
• a ready-to-contribute defensive end who can rush the passer
• a ready-to-contribute halfback who can catch and block
• a developmental tackle
• a developmental inside linebacker who can play special teams
• a developmental defensive tackle
• a developmental outside linebacker who can play special teams
• a developmental corner who can play special teams
• a developmental safety who can play special teams

Linemen are coming

While the Colts were looking at New Mexico State tight end Paul Cleaver, they also checked out offensive lineman Mike Martinez. A natural center, Martinez (6037, 335, e5.30) played left tackle for the Aggies simply because he was their best o-lineman. While his agent is quick to point out that Martinez neutralized the mighty Shawne Merriman when they met up in 2004 (1 tackle, zero sacks), I wouldn't count on that kind of production week-in and week-out. A fundamentally sound tough guy who plays a cerebral game, Martinez is too heavy-footed (and big-bellied) to last outside in the pros.

This is also a pretty good time to mention that the Colts did check out one first-day lock — Boston College's Gosder Cherilus (6063, 314, 5.14). I don't think I really have to tell you who he is, but the quick sketch is this: massive, smart, hard-working kid with excellent technique who lacks the feet to play left tackle in the NFL, but would be a star on the right side and could have a future inside as well. Would I be surprised if he was the Colts' top pick? Not at all.

Thursday, March 20, 2008

Some speculation, some news

To help with your mock drafts, here's an anotated depth chart (unsigned but tendered restricted free agents included in italics)

QB Manning Sorgi Betts
The top two are set in stone; Betts may get some competition to be a late cut/practice squad candidate, but it'll probably come after the draft
RB Addai Keith Lawton Dawson Hairston
Addai is the starter; Keith can run, but can't catch or block; Lawton is a fan fave with some real FB skills; look for a draft pick here
WR Harrison Wayne Gonzalez Aromashodu Hall Shelton Jones Roby
Top three are stars, but Harrison is near (or at) the end of the line; the others are unknown quantities — a tough, sure-handed slot guy would be a boon
TE Clark Utecht Fletcher Robinson Herold
Clark's a star, but better in the slot than tight; Utecht's good, but is also as good as gone, Fletch can catch but not block; reinforcements are due
T Ugoh Diem Johnson Federkeil Toudouze Hilliard
Ugoh and Diem are talents but neither is durable; Johnson seems over his head outside; others are long shots
C/G Saturday Lilja Gandy Ross Elgin Esera
Saturday still awesome, but will be 33 when the season starts and an unrestricted free agent after it ends; Lilja is a quality starter, nothing more; Gandy's adequate; Ross and Elgin have potential, but not that much
DE Freeney Mathis Thomas Charleston Ishola Milan
Top two set in stone; Thomas a quality No. 3; Charleston had up-and-down season, but showed flashes; others are projects
DT Brock Johnson Pitcock Dawson Reid Bradley
Top three are under-rated and productive, watch for Pitcock to come up big this year; Dawson is too small (254 pounds) to play very often; I'm not as fond of Reid as most Colts fans are
OLB Keiaho Hagler Session Guzman Nande
I'm a huge fan of the top four (keep an eye on Guzman), but neither of the top two are at all durable; you'll see at least one significant new face here
ILB Brackett Worsley Shotwell
Brackett makes it all work, but needs a backup/heir apparent
CB Jackson Hayden Jennings Hughes Rushing Coe Ratliff
Loads of talent, but no clear-cut stars; Jennings and Hughes could just as easily start as Jackson and Hayden; Hayden and Ratliff not signed for 2009, but Hayden likely to be retained
S Sanders Bethea Giordano Bullitt Condren Smith
Starters are awesome, and Giordano not that far behind (re-signing him should be a priority); others are prospects of varying stripes
K Vinatieri Andrus
Vinatieri a star, but aging; Andrus has a strong leg, little else
P Smith Stanley
Smith a star, but may be slowing (real value is as a holder); Stanley has NFL experience; where's Reggie Hodges? I liked him, thought he was Smith's replacement in waiting
LS Snow
Not exactly flawless, but he's done a good enough job for eight seasons now ...

Also of note, the Colts sent a delegation to Syracuse's pro day. A lousy team in 2007 indeed, but one that has yielded Marvin Harrison, Dwight Freeney and Josh Thomas in the past. The current prospects there include Jameel McClain (6006, 249, 4.74) a stumpy DE who had 14.5 TFL and 9.5 sacks as a junior, but most NFL teams project as an ILB; Dowayne Davis (5113, 202, 4.46), a raw strong safety with hitting pop and experience at all four secondary spots; and Joe Fields (6002, 205, e4.60), a former quarterback and basketball player who would up at free safety — a real leader type with athleticism, he lacks experience and speed. McClain might cost a seventh-rounder, but the others should go undrafted.

And the Colts worked out another player, New Mexico State tight end Paul Cleaver. Originally a safety, Cleaver (6035, 243, 4.63) switched to tight end midway through his soph year, catching 16-226-2. He followed that with a breakout 50-684-4 as a junior, but slumped a little to 33-388-0 as a senior, mainly due to a deep ankle sprain. A big tough kid blessed with smooth moves and natural hands, Cleaver can play tight end, H-back and even fullback in a pinch. He's not a strong in-line blocker, but is shows a great understanding of the passing game and an ability to get open, despite really still learning the position. Don't be surprised if he is selected in the sixth or seventh round.

Roundup

Lots going on, so let's round it all up.

Update your mocks! The Colts did something few would have predicted when they re-signed No. 3 defensive end Josh Thomas. While Thomas is no star, his presence indicates that the position is probably no longer the team's top need. While it might be nice to have another pass-rusher, keep in mind that Dwight Freeney will make $5.75 million next year, Robert Mathis will make $6.81 million and now Thomas will be bring home some serious spondulix — that's a lot of money for one position.

So what is the team's top need now? Well, that's for another post; but I will give you a hint. The following players (listed in order of 2007 salary) are not under contract for 2009: C Jeff Saturday, OLB Tyjuan Hagler, CB Kelvin Hayden, CB Kiewan Ratliff and T Dan Federkeil.

And the Colts are working out players: In the past couple of days, the Colts have worked out a number of players, including one very familiar to Indianapolis residents. Here are some quick rundowns:

Mackenzy Bernardeau G Bentley (6041, 306, 5.29): Big, strong kid dominated in Division II, earning two straight ACFA All-Americans. Surprisingly polished considering where he played, but will need to work on pass pro to be able to play in the NFL. A smart and hard-working kid, he should respond to coaching. Played mostly left tackle in college, but short arms will move him inside in the NFL. Lots of teams attended his workout, and he projects as a sixth-round pick.

Shemiah LeGrande DT Hofstra (6001, 288, e5.00): Under-rated prospect who made All-Colonial twice. A small penetrating tackle and a punishing hitter, LeGrande plays a 3-technique much like the Colts employ. Known for his great first step and ability to shed blocks, LeGrande projects to a wave tackle in the pros. His size and level of competition will likely keep him from being drafted, but he'll be in camp somewhere. Reminds me of Cleveland Pinkney, an undrafted free agent who didn't make the Colts but hung around the NFL for years.

Kareem Huggins RB Hofstra (5087, 185, 4.47): LeGrande's teammate, tiny Huggins is a slashing runner (178-957-9 as a senior) who can catch the ball (15-103-0), but is probably too small to be anything but an occasional contributor on offense. Luckily, he's an accomplished returner (26-641-2 on kicks as a senior and 13-162-0 on punts as a junior), and the Colts are holding auditions at the position. Like LeGrande, size and competition issues will keep him from being drafted.

Jordan Senn OLB Portland State (5114, 224, 4.53): Small but fast outside linebacker who is quick in pursuit (127 tackles as a senior) and an accomplished blitzer (12.5 stuffs, 3 sacks in two years); but his best quality is his coverage ability (4 passes deflected, 3-75-1 interceptions as a senior). Lack of height and coverage ability means most teams will project him to strong safety, but he'd play Will in the Colts' defense. More likely, he'll be a special-teams player with a chance to be groomed into a linebacker (or safety, depending on who gets him). Despite his production, Senn is unlikely to sneak into the bottom of the draft, but could be an NFL player for years. Reminds me a little of special-teams superstar Steve Gleason, who many forget was originally signed out of Washington State by the Colts.

James Banks WR Carson-Newman (6025, 210, 4.58): Indy fans will remember when he starred at Ben Davis high school. In 2001, the athletic quarterback was so sought after that he chose Tennessee over Notre Dame. He played a little there, but the coaches liked his legs better than his arm and switched him to wide receiver. In 2003, he led the team in receiving (42-621-6), developing a reputation for making difficult and clutch catches. But his fast track to the NFL was derailed by drugs and alcohol, and he was kicked off the team. He eventually landed at Division II Carson-Newman, receiving 22-370-6 in his only year there.

His ability is not really in doubt. He's no blazer, but he is a naturally elusive runner with great strength, concentration and good hands. What teams will worry about is his character. That he succeeded at Carson-Newman — a strict Southern Baptist college with a tough coach in Ken Sparks — is a good sign. Whether he drafted or not will depend a lot on how he interviews.

Despite what many think, the Colts do take chances on character risks. Marlin Jackson had some problems, but the Colts drafted him in the first round in 2005. Ed Johnson was such a character question, he wasn't even drafted, despite his ability and now he's a starter in Indy. And Roscoe Crosby — a player eerily similar to Banks — was signed by the Colts three times. He didn't work out, but it does prove that the team will take a chance on a character risk if they believe he has turned himself around.

Banks has made one big mistake in his comeback, though. Two weeks ago, he worked out with an ex-NFL quarterback to show off his skills for scouts. Sounds smart, but he was catching passes from Jeff George, perhaps the most hated athlete in Indianapolis history.

Based on skill alone, Banks would be a third or fourth rounder. But he'll probably only cost a seventh rounder. If his head is on right, he could play wide or in the slot and the trick-play option he brings is just another plus.

Monday, March 17, 2008

Lookin' at uh kickuh from Staten F***in' Island

Ever since they arrived in Indianapolis, the Colts have had good place-kicking. Even when they were a bad team, they could always rely on Raul Allegre, Dean Biasucci, Cary Blanchard, Mike Vanderjagt (loathe as I am to admit it) or Adam Vinatieri to score points.

For much of that time, though, the Colts have been average or not quite average on kickoffs. That explains why they've drafted big-legged guys like Dave Rayner and David Kimball, signed kickoff specialists like Danny Kight and Martin Grammatica and invited Shane Andrus to camp three times now. (1) The need for a kickoff specialist has slowed a little since 2006, when the Colts signed Vinatieri, who's generally considered a pretty good kickoff guy.

But Vinatieri is not a young man at 37, has been slowing visibly and makes a lot of money. Last year, he had a 65.00 gross and a 40.73 net on kickoffs, with 9 touchbacks in 91 kickoffs (9.89 percent, good for 22nd in the league). (2) That's not bad, but something that could be improved upon.

So, as they have many times before, the Colts are looking at a strong-legged college kicker who could enter the league as a kickoff specialist and, with luck, develop into a fulltime kicker. They are one of 16 teams to look at Piotr Czech (6044, 212), kicker and punter for Staten Island's Wagner College. (3)

An AFCA All-American, Czech was born in Poland and moved to New Jersey when he was two. He originally went to Wagner to play soccer, concentrating on football only as a junior. But right away this big, strong kid made an impression. As a frosh, this largely self-taught kicker went a perfect 31 of 31 on extra points. For his career, he went 110-115 on extra points, and 44 of 65 on field goals, although many of them were over 50 yards in windy conditions.

But what really stands out are his kickoffs. As a senior, he had a 62.42 gross and a 42.22 net. He also had eight touchbacks in 55 kickoffs (14.54 percent). While those numbers may not sound outstanding, keep in mind that he was kicking in Meadowlands-style winds at home, and is still very close to the start of his learning curve. And he's a smart, (4) level-headed kid with guts.

I think it's too late for Czech to develop into a NFL-quality punter. But he does have the ability to compete for a kickoff specialist job as a rookie and has the potential to be coached up into an all-around kicker. Depending on how he works out and interviews, he may convince some team to take a flier on him with a seventh-round pick. More likely, however, he will be beneficiary of a undrafted free agent bidding war.

Notes:
1. Of them, only Kight ever contributed much.
2. Don't read too much into those numbers, Vinatieri had the luxury of home games in a dome.
3. Did you see School of Rock? It was shot in Wagner.
4. He ran a 3.1 GPA at an Ivy League-level school.

Sunday, March 16, 2008

Columbia: Quarterback U?

I used to live three blocks away from where the Columbia Lions play football in upper Manhattan. Over the years, I went to plenty of their games — and enjoyed them a lot. But I never really considered it college football in the NFL draft sense. Sitting alongside the few hundred friends, girlfriends and parents of the guys on the field, I thought watching the Lions was like drinking some friend's homemade wine, while a trip to Miami to watch the Hurricanes play was like enjoying a David Bruce pinot noir —the same thing in essence, but not in fact.

So I was caught a bit off guard when I found out the Colts (along with the Giants and Eagles) worked out the Lions' quarterback yesterday. Not that Craig Hormann (6041, 228, 5.03) is a bad prospect by FCS standards. Coltplay readers from Indianapolis will probably remember him from his heroics at Lawrence Central.

He's a big boy with a powerful arm, great accuracy and an ability to stand up to the fiercest rush. And he had to with the — as usual — terrible Lions. Despite his great ability, he had to use all his skill and desire to record 393-215-2,505-12-15 passing as a senior after 230-126-1,613-8-9 as a junior.

I've seen tape of him playing, and he has some real NFL quarterback skills. Scouting reports say he throws into coverage too often, but with his turnstile offense line and receivers who struggled to get open, it wasn't really his fault.

But that doesn't mean Hormann's a first-rounder waiting to happen. Facing Ivy League defenses isn't exactly like moving the ball against the Patriots. And NFL scouts will not be impressed with Hormann's slow feet. At Columbia, he looked like a sitting duck in the pocket, showing little motion or ability to evade the rush. Some of that may have been the lingering effects of a serious 2005 knee injury, though.

Despite his unimpressive stats against lackluster competition, Hormann is a prospect NFL scouts will pay attention to. He needs to work on his footwork and agility, but definitely has the arm and brain to stick as a No. 3 guy. He'll be in someone's camp and is likely to make a practice squad somewhere.

Saturday, March 15, 2008

Mock me gently

I know it's only mid-March, but I thought I'd throw a mock draft out. Keep in mind that this includes predicted compensatory picks.

2: Marcus Howard DE Georgia 6004, 237, 4.45
Too small! They'll say. Too early! They'll shout. Too bad, I say. This kid is a natural born pass-rusher of rare ability. Don't believe me, take another look at this year's Sugar Bowl. With so many 3-4 teams looking for rushbackers, I'd be surprised if he was still available here.
3: John Carlson TE Notre Dame 6051, 251, 4.88
Here's the replacement for 13-game starter Ben Utecht. Carlson is a big-time blocker with soft hands who can contribute on short and intermediate routes.
4: Nick Greco T Toledo 6046, 305, 5.31
He'll never be Walter Jones at left tackle, but Greco could develop into a starter at any other o-line spot in the NFL. Good lines are made of never-say-die guys like this.
5: Marcus Smith WR New Mexico 6013, 221, 4.51
I know he has some ish, but Smith is a big lug who catches anything near him. An upgrade over Roy Hall.
6a: Jalen Parmele HB Toledo 5114, 224, 4.47
Saw this kid while watching film of Greco. An excellent blocker and inside runner, Parmele could well be the Colts' No. 2 next year.
6b: Jack Williams CB Kent State 5090, 186, 4.43
Tough-as-nails press corner with speed? Sign me up.
6c: Ronnie McCullough ILB Bethune-Cookman 5110, 229, 4.75
Short, unheralded Mike who tackles everything and makes his presence known on every play — sound familiar?
6d: Trevor Scott DE Buffalo 6050, 256, 4.54
Small-school phenom with speed and natural pass-rush ability? Besides, the Colts caught an eyeful of this kid when they scouted Ramon Guzman at Buffy last year.
7a: Colin Ferrell DT Kent State 6005, 293, 4.88
Quick, strong penetrating nose tackle with a solid character. Has a non-stop motor. Screams Colts, draft me!
7b: Eric Scott C Kentucky 6032, 298, 4.93
A former tight end with a cerebral approach to the position and the game, Scott is better than his triangle numbers would allow.

Friday, March 14, 2008

Life after Ben U?

Take a quick read of Ben Utecht's quotes in the Cincinnati Enquirer; he really wants to be there.

It's not too surprising. If the Colts match, the contract would be the same; but the position would be different. In Indianapolis, he was the starting tight end. Utecht started all 13 of the games he played, but he was always second fiddle to faster, more dynamic Dallas Clark. Last season, Clark had 100 passes thrown at him, Utecht had 37. And Clark got to run all the fun, long routes, while Utecht usually only saw the ball on dumpoffs and other emergencies. Some people like blocking play-in and play-out, but Utecht just isn't one of them.

His role would change in Cinci. The incumbent tight ends there are lumbering starting Reggie Kelly, half-talented Daniel Coates and practice squad-type Nate Lawrie. If all goes according to plan, Kelly would be the stay-at-home blocker/shift-to-fullback guy while Utecht would get to play the Clark role. With all the coverage Bengals wideouts Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmanzadeh draw, it wouldn't be surprising to see Utecht establish himself as a deep threat and, if he stays healthy, catch 50 balls for 700 yards.

While that's all very well and good for Mr. Utecht (and even better for the Bengals), it leaves the Colts bereft. See, Utecht is an extraordinarily talented guy who catches pretty much everything thrown his way and has an uncanny knack for placing the ball just beyond the down marker. He will be missed.

But he won't, I expect, be retained. As talented as he is, Utecht is hardly durable enough for the cap-strapped Colts to make a longterm investment in. In his tenure in Indy, he played just 41 of 80 possible regular-season games and was nicked up in plenty of those. Besides, as much as I like Utecht as a pure talent, he is miscast in Indy. Having Utecht be the blocking tight end is kind of like having Marlin Jackson play safety. Sure he can, but should he?

So if he leaves, where does that leave the Colts. Clark could go back to being the starting tight end, but after his success in the wide/slot/motion/H-back/tight end role, I think the team realizes he's better off not facing defensive ends or blitzing linebackers every play. Nor do I think he'd like it.

Last year's No. 3, Bryan Fletcher, is also a tendered restricted free agent and he has received far less interest on the open market than Utecht has. He'll probably be back, but he's a cut below Utecht as a receiver and a cut-and-a-half or maybe evn two behind him as a blocker.

Of course, they have other options. Gijon Robinson is also more of a receiver than a blocker, but at 6'1 (actually, 6006), he probably won't get many chances to prove it. Behind him is Zac Herold, a small-school prospect who's a big lug with soft hands — but it's hard to get excited about a player who has been with four pro teams in less than one year.

So it looks like the Colts will draft a tight end who can play right away, even if Fletcher returns. Let's take a look at the top tight ends:

Fred Davis (6030, 255, DNR) USC: will probably be drafted before Colts pick
Martellus Bennett (6061, 251, 4.68) Texas A&M: Raw, may not have the heart to be an NFL starter
Dustin Keller (6021. 252, 4.53) Purdue: Not a great blocker, will drop some
John Carlson (6051, 251, 4.88) Notre Dame: Not a great athlete
Brad Cottam (6074, 270, 4.63) Tennessee: Not a natural receiver
Martin Rucker (6044, 243, 4.82) Missouri: Not a great blocker, will drop some
Jermichael Finley (6047, 251, DNR) Texas: Super-raw, not a real blocker
Jacob Tamme (6034, 236, 4.58) Kentucky: Doesn't actually block at all
Craig Stevens (6032, 254, 4.59) Cal: Not a great athlete, lacks mean streak
Darrell Strong (6040, 268, 4.78) Pitt: Just doesn't seem to try all that hard
Kellen Davis (6064, 262, 4.59) Michigan State: Questionable character, instincts
Gary Barnridge (6055, 243, 4.61) Louisville: Thin, lacks real athleticism

If the Colts are looking for a complete block/receive tight end to allow Clark to do his thing all over the field, the best bets would appear to be Carlson or Stevens. The team has reportedly been in touch with Carlson, who could be available when they pick at the end of the third round. But don't be surprised if they grab an H-back pass-catcher like Keller or Tamme, though. It doesn't make that much sense, but when was the last time you saw the Colts pass on a talented receiver?

Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Another one

According to a paper called the West Central Tribune in a town called Willmar, Minn., (1) the Colts were one of four teams (2) to check out a wide receiver named Tommy Ellingworth. The kid (5101, 183, 4.42) put up some pretty good numbers in college, but the problem is that he put those numbers up while playing for Augustana. (3) As a senior, he caught 65-728-4, rushed 4-24-0, returned punts 5-50-0 and kicks 2-37-0. For his career, he caught 210-2,367-18, rushed 52-267-0, passed 5-3-51-1-0, returned punts 37-389-1 (a 10.51 average) and kicks 65-1,310-0 (a 20.15 average).

I have not seen him play, but from what I've read and heard, Ellingworth is a naturally elusive runner with soft hands and toughness. Still, I think an athlete of his caliber should have dominated at a D-2 school like Augustana. At this point, you'd have to consider him a priority free agent at best, who should be given a shot on return teams and a chance to become a slot receiver after a couple of years.

Don't be too surprised if he winds up in Indy for camp. According to the newspaper report, the Colts scouts put him through a more thorough workout than the guys from the other teams did.

Notes:
1. Population 18,351. Sa-LOOT!
2. Also in attendance were reps from Green Bay, Washington and Atlanta.
3. This is the Augustana in North Dakota; not the one in Illinois, which gave the NFL an all-time great in Ken Anderson and recognizable names like Corbina Lacina and Bryan Schwartz. This Augustana, however, did produce John Simko, an "end" picked in the 18th (!) round of the 1961 draft by Pittsburgh. He never played for the Steelers — he was better at tennis anyway — but became a lawyer in 1968 and is now a U.S. magistrate judge.

Monday, March 10, 2008

The next set of Colts?

New Era Scouting, a very reliable source of predraft news, has reported that the Colts have "shown interest" to the following eligible players:

Justin Beaver HB Wisconsin-Whitewater (5081, 196, 4.41) is a small-but-speedy back who was ridiculously productive at the Division-III level. As a senior, he rushed 444-2,552-15 and caught four passes for 12 yards. Still, "The Beav" didn't get much media interest until his Pro Day, at which he ran a 4.41 forty, a 3.96 20-yard shuttle (better than any back at the Combine), the cones in 6.72 and hoisted the bar 24 times. Since he was so dominant running, he didn't catch the ball much in college (8-41-0 career), but looked good in drills and is said to be a give-his-all-style blocker. He reminds me a lot of Dominic Rhodes at the same point in his career.

Jalen Parmele HB Toledo (5114, 224, 4.47) is another highly productive back who will be drafted well before the books say he will. A standout on a so-so Toledo team, Parmele put up big numbers (276-1,511-14 rushing, 17-157-1 receiving and 20-560-1 kick returns) and was a reliable option in any number of situations, showing good burst and awareness. A big load, he's hard to stop between the tackles and is a very good blocker. The knocks against him have been a lackluster work ethic and a lack of natural receiving skills.

John Greco T Toledo (6046, 305, 5.31 (1)) is one of the guys you'll actually see in draft books. Toledo's left tackle since Nick Kaczur became a Patriot, Greco says he models himself after his predecessor — that's a pretty good thing. A strong pass protector and the guy Parmele usually ran behind, Greco is a much better football player than he is an athlete. While the draft guides will probably recommend a move to guard (which could work), I prefer him at his natural position, right tackle — where he played as a frosh and in the Shrine Game. A solid citizen with a strong work ethic and a team-first mentality, don't be surprised if he's drafted earlier than the guides project.

Jonna Lee (2) LB Charleston Southern (6011, 243, e4.85) is another small-school talent who has received little media attention. After three solid years with the Bucs, (3) he was expected to have a huge season, but missed all but five games to injury. But he delivered in those five (21 tackles, 27 assists, 5-21 tackles for loss, 1-7 sack), looking like he was gathering strength and shaking off the rust in each. A big guy and punishing hitter, Lee will probably play inside in the pros where his lack of foot speed will be less of a problem.

Jeremy Geathers DE UNLV (6021, 256, 4.97) is a college defensive end many teams will project to outside linebacker. (4) Quick and athletic, Geathers’ dad Jumpy, uncle Robert and cousin Robert all played defensive end in the NFL. This Geathers was fairly productive at UNLV (6 TFL, 5 sacks in 2007 and 9.5 TFL and 5.5 sacks in 2006), but showed some flashes of greatness with a strong burst and very good use of his hands and arms. Even teams like the Colts would have to protect him on running plays, though.

Jack Williams CB Kent State (5090, 186, 4.43 (5)) is a feisty little corner who plays far beyond his size with aggressiveness, efficient blitzes and hard hits. I’ve watched this guy play and he does everything you want in a cornerback (70 tackles, 23 assists, 6.5-17 tackles for loss, 3-48-0 interceptions, 8 pass deflection, 2-0-0 fumble recoveries, 1 forced fumble as a senior), only he does it a few inches below where you’d expect. That may limit him to playing the slot, but with the emphasis on three-receiver sets these days, he could prove valuable. Oh, and he can return kicks (12-252-0 career) pretty nicely, play special teams and even block the odd kick, too.

Notes:
1. Ran a 5.16 at his Pro Day
2. New Era spelled his first name "Jona," but it's actually Jonna, just like the Swedish singer or the TV actress.
3. He had to sit out another because of academic problems, but bounced back and became a good student.
4. A terrible mistake it would be, too.
5. Ran a 4.32 at his Pro Day.

Friday, March 7, 2008

Perception vs. Reality

We all know the Colts' offense is awesome and the defense sucks right? Those poor Colts, having to make do with 274-pound Raheem Brock and undrafted Ed Johnson (296). They even had to play rookie third-round pick Quinn Pitcock (299) and (horrors!) resort to even tinier rookie Keyunta Dawson (a svelte 254). Clearly they need a 350-pound fat guy to plug up the middle, right?

I respectfully disagree. The Colts offense was awesome last year, fourth in the league. They could have run the ball better, but fewer injuries and more talent on the ol' o-line should help that.

But the defense was even more awesome — at least statistically. They were allowed fewer points than any other team in the NFL. They were third in league in yards allowed, second in pass defense, first in passing yards per play, second in interceptions and seventh in forced fumbles.

Detractors will point out: 1) they were 15th in rushing yards per game, 2) 22nd in sacks and 3) well, they just suck, everyone knows that.

1) It is true they were 15th in rushing yards allowed per game, (1) but it was primarily because teams (like fans) thought the Colts were easy to run on. Despite usually having the lead — which would tend to make opponents pass more (2) — the Colts were run on a lot. But not effectively. The Colts were actually sixth in the NFL with just 3.767 yards allowed per rushing attempt. Face it, the Colts actually fielded a pretty good rushing defense last year, despite injuries to their highest-paid defensive tackle (Booger McFarland) and best run-stopping linebacker (Rob Morris).

2) Well, their top two pass rushers — Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis — missed a combined 11 games. The team rarely blitzes, instead depending on their front four for pressure. Without Freeney and Mathis, they sagged seriously in that department. I agree the Colts could use some help there, but it won't come from some fat dude. Unless his name's Shaun Rogers, the big guys never get anything but garbage sacks. And don't gimme that guff about the big guy absorbing blockers so the others can pass-rush. Doesn't really work that way. Look at the Super Bowl-champion Giants (3) — their vaunted rush-line was a quartet of ends (4), without a fat dude in sight. (5)

3) Times change, things change — and people often are reluctant to change their minds.

I'm not saying they won't draft a DT, but it won't be a jumbo, and it probably won't be on the first day.

Notes:
1. That's still in the top half on the league.
2. And face more five-, six- and seven-defensive back formations.
3. Not to mention the previous season's champs the Colts. Yeah, they had McFarland, but he never really cracked 300 pounds.
4. One of them, Mathias Kiwanuka, actually spent a lot of time at linebacker.
5. The rush linemen weighed 261, 255, 274 and 265. Granted, their first-down DTs were bigger. Barry Cofield is 306 and Robbins is 317, but neither played a role at all approaching what the little guys did.

Wednesday, March 5, 2008

Two things to think about

1. The truth about draft guides

Although they are fun and useful sources of information, don't put too much trust in draft books, especially when it comes to which round a prospect should be selected in. If I hear one more person indignantly say something along the lines of "we could have had him in the third round!" I will go nuts. Case in point: I can't find it right now, but I have a draft guide kicking around somewhere that recommended Dwight Freeney be drafted in the fourth round.

Let's look at the players the Colts have "reached for" (according to the experts) recently:

2007: Tony Ugoh, Roy Hall, Clint Session
2006: Freddie Keiaho
2005: Kelvin Hayden, Sweet Pea Burns, Matt Giordano, Tyjuan Hagler
2004: Bob Sanders, Gilbert Gardner, Jake Scott
2003: Dallas Clark, Robert Mathis, Cato June
2002: Dwight Freeney, Joseph Jefferson, David Thornton, Josh Mallard

A few wrong notes in there, but a pretty good group. Far better, certainly, than those vaunted talents who "fell to" to Colts on draft day in the same era:

2005: Jonathan Welsh, Robert Hunt, Anthony Davis
2004: Kendyll Pope
2003: Mike Doss, Steve Sciullo

The same is true of undrafted free agents. Remember the outrage last season when the Colts drafted Session when KaMichael Hall was available? The draft books said Hall was a third or fourth rounder, while few even mentioned Session. The Colts eventually signed Hall as an undrafted free agent, but he was cut before the season started. The same thing happened the year earlier with Dale Robinson. (1)

The truth is that they don't know. Most of the books are written and laid-out before the combine (let alone pro days) and some even before the post-season games. (2) And they are put together by guys at a media source, not a NFL team. They won't lose their jobs if they're wrong, even if they are consistently wrong.

2. Compensatory picks

A far more noted blogger than I, the great AdamJT13, has been projecting compensatory picks for years with uncanny accuracy. This year, he says the Colts will receive three sixes and a seven. Not terrible, but not what I expected, either.

If his prediction comes true, and it usually does, the Colts picks will look like this:

One 2nd,
one 3rd,
one 4th,
one 5th,
four 6ths,
and two 7ths

Considering the Colts' ability to score with late-round picks, it should be an interesting second day.

Note:
1. Before you bring up Ben Utecht, keep in mind it was a devastating injury that knocked him out of the draft — and he went straight from college to the IR, missing an entire season. And you don't want me to bring up George Achica. Or E.G. Green, Aaron Taylor or dozens of others.
2. The better ones plug in a few post-combine stories and numbers, though.

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

Position analysis: Wide receivers

Starters
Marvin Harrison in 2007: 20-247-1 receiving
Reggie Wayne in 2007: 104-1510-10 receiving, 1-4-0 rushing
Anthony Gonzalez in 2007: 37-576-3 receiving

Backups
Devin Aromashodu in 2007: 7-96-0 receiving
Roy Hall in 2007: 1 special-teams tackle, 1 special-teams assist (1)
Trent Shelton in 2007: None (2)
Onrea Jones in 2007: None (3)
Courtney Roby in 2007: None (4)

Analysis
Before we get into too much discussion, let's get the important numbers out of the way for the receiver who played last year. The guys in italics aren't on the roster anymore.

The first is catch percentage (catches/how many times he'd been thrown to):

Gonzalez 71.15 (37/52)
Wayne 66.67 (104/156)
Harrison 62.50 (20/32)
Thorpe 60.00 (12/20)
Aromashadu 41.17 (7/17)
Moorehead 36.36 (8/22)

The next is average yards per target (yards/how many times he'd been thrown to):

Gonzalez 11.08 (576/52)
Wayne 9.68 (1510/156)
Harrison 7.72 (247/32)
Aromashadu 5.65 (96/17)
Thorpe 3.50 (70/20)
Moorehead 2.95 (65/22)

Then we have yards after the catch per catch:

Aromashadu 5.57 (39/7)
Gonzalez 4.95 (183/37)
Wayne 3.94 (410/104)
Moorehead 1.50 (12/8)
Thorpe 1.42 (17/12)
Harrison 1.25 (40/32)

On to percentage of first downs per catch:

Gonzalez 72.97 (27/37)
Aromashadu 71.43 (5/7)
Wayne 69.23 (72/104)
Harrison 60.00 (12/20)
Moorehead 50.00 (4/8)
Thorpe 33.33 (4/12)

And, finally, catchable balls per drop (drops + catches/drops):

Thorpe ∞ (12/0)
Harrison 21.00 (21/1)
Wayne 18.33 (110/6)
Aromashadu 8.00 (8/1)
Gonzalez 6.29 (44/7)
Moorehead 5.00 (10/2)

The cuts don't subtract much. Though Craphonso Thorpe showed good hands, (6) he just couldn't get open. Aaron Moorehead was just awful in every aspect of the job.

Sure-fire Hall of Famer Marvin Harrison (5110, 187, 4.27 in 1996) suffered through an injury-plagued season, which caused many to wonder if it's over for him. For more than a decade, Harrison has been using his extraordinary hands, agility, concentration and intelligence to destroy opposing secondaries. Perhaps his best attribute over the years has been his almost telepathic rapport with Peyton Manning. Harrison used to have awesome speed, but is now just so-so in that department. He covers for his lost step with razor-sharp cuts and quickness. Traditionally, the knock against Harrison has been his reluctance to go over the middle and a tendency to avoid contact. Those traits have magnified with age.

As Harrison's star has waned, Reggie Wayne's has risen. A similar player to Harrison, Wayne (6003, 197, 4.44 in 2001) is stronger and tougher, but no more likely to go over the middle. Wayne will drop a few, but is otherwise an outstanding wideout. He is developing a relationship with Manning that is similar to Harrison's and may even be better at adjusting to the inevitable blitzes.

When the Colts drafted Anthony Gonzalez (6000, 193, 4.44 in 2007) first last season, the conventional wisdom was that he would play the slot. (5) But injuries at the position forced him to play more often outside, which many would argue is his more natural role. His outstanding rookie numbers prove that he can be productive at either spot. A very similar player to Wayne, Gonzalez uses razor-sharp route running, deceptive speed and intelligence to get open. Although he could cut down on the drops and did have some nagging injury problems of his own, Gonzalez gave every indication of future stardom.

Injuries also forced Devin Aromashodu (6024, 201, 4.35 in 2006) into the lineup, with mixed results. A size/speed prospect who'd been hanging onto the practice squad for a while, Aromashodu has awesome deep speed, nice burst and runs surprisingly sharp routes with good awareness. But he's not a natural receiver — catching with his body and dropping way too many easy balls in college — and he is said to lack the focus and perhaps toughness necessary to be a NFL star.

Last year, Roy Hall (6020, 229, 4.41 in 2007) was a surprise fifth-round draft pick. It was a surprise because he was the fifth-best receiver not in his draft year, not in his conference, but on his team. In fact, before his explosive performance at the combine, Hall was best known for injuring teammate Ted Ginn Jr. in an end zone celebration. But his physical attributes were just too strong for the Colts to resist. Not surprisingly, he did little in his rookie year. His supporters will point out that he caught a team-leading 11 passes in the preseason, but it should be kept in mind they threw 24 at him and he netted just 88 yards. At this point, he’s still more athlete than football player. He doesn’t have natural hands and he needs to work on route-running and reading defenses. For all his speed, Hall doesn’t seem to play all that fast and his blocking is subpar, even for the position. At this point, he appears to be more of a development prospect, though he has had some flashes on special teams.

Trent Shelton (5117, 210, 4.58 in 2007) isn’t big or fast like Hall, but was much more productive in college, and showed some real ability to get open in the preseason. Blessed with natural hands, Shelton also plays much faster than he times. He played particularly well as a coverage-teams gunner in the preseason.

If Hall and Shelton have little in common, Onrea Jones (5111, 202, 4.50 in 2007) is somewhere in between them. He works out better than Shelton, but not as well as Hall. He was more productive in college than Hall, but not quite as much as Shelton. So far, the book on Jones is that he’s more of a chain-moving possession guy than a deep threat, and that he still needs developing. The definitive maybe-he-will-maybe-he-won’t guy, Jones has already been with four teams in the NFL despite being out of school only one year.

Unlike the other prospects, Courtney Roby (6001, 189, 4.41 in 2005) has proven he can play in the NFL. A third-round draft pick of the Tennessee Titans in 2005, he caught 23-317-1, rushed 3-19-0 and returned kicks 22-495-0 for them in two seasons. He didn’t really fit into offensive coordinator Norm Chow’s system and was a surprise cut. He wound up with the Bengals last season after Tab Perry landed on injured reserve, but didn’t get a chance to play. Roby is considered a fast receiver with good hands who can help on specials, but isn’t tough and could use some help with his route running.

What I'd do
Two factors will decide what happens with the Colts' wide receiving corps. The first is the health of Marvin Harrison. If he can come back at anything near full-strength, it would be a boon, but even the most optimistic Colts fans realize he probably only has a season or two left in his battered body. The Colts have an effective replacement for Harrison in-house in Gonzalez, but that makes one wonder who will replace Gonzalez. He was drafted with the intention of playing the slot (which is basically a starting role in the Colts' offense), but if he's playing outside it leaves the spot open.

Since the end of the Stokley era, the Colts have leaned heavily on starting tight end Dallas Clark to play the slot — in fact, he took more snaps split last year than he did tight. While he excels in the role, his presence there weakens the tight end corps severely, and the situation is more dire now than ever because his backups, Ben Utecht and Bryan Fletcher, are free agents. (7)

The other question is how ready Hall will be. I'm not worried about his injury, but about his ability. When I saw him last year, I thought he played very well on specials — his downed punt was a thing of beauty — but he looked lost as a receiver, even in preseason when he was playing against a bunch of nobodies and the Colts' offense seemed built around getting him the ball. If the team thinks he can handle the slot, then they have no problem. But if he is, as I fear, still far from able to start in the NFL, there's a problem.

If you look at the other receivers currently on the roster, you'll see some talent, (8) but you'll also see a bunch of long-striders who are short on real football toughness and would never think of venturing between the hash marks. (9)

So, unless Hall steps up, I'd invest a third-, fourth- or perhaps fifth-round pick in a wide receiver who could play the slot right away. (10) The perfect player would Kansas' Jordy Nelson (6025, 217, 4.51 in 2008), but I really think he'll be drafted in the second round. More justifiable options include Louisville's small but reliable Harry Douglas (5112, 176, 4.51 in 2008), or Utah State's Kevin Robinson (5112, 202, 4.69 in 2008) who posted a horrible 40 at the combine but was an explosive playmaker in college and dominated at the Shrine Game. But my favorite is New Mexico's Marcus Smith (6013, 221, 4.51 in 2008). Although very productive, Smith ran poor routes and was a bit of a baby for most of his college career. But when his mom died in his senior season, Smith toughened up, found his maturity and played like a man possessed. Perhaps more important, he's a big kid with huge soft hands and he catches everything around him. He's also a severe blocker who will play special teams, can return kicks and is even a threat on the old end-around.

Notes:
1. Caught 11-88-0 in the preseason
2. Caught 10-117-1 in the preseason
3. He spent the preseason with the Chargers, but didn't record any stats
4. No preseason stats, he was active for one regular-season game with Cincinnati, but didn't see the field.
5. For those who haven't been paying attention, the Colts' offense was awesome when Brandon Stokley, a real-live deep threat, was playing the slot. After he got hurt (and eventually left through free agency), the Colts struggled to find a solution, plugging in starting tight end Dallas Clark, among other options. It works, but not as well having a real slot man.
6. And some return ability
7. Restricted free agents they may be, but both receiver low tenders than would result in no compensation for the Colts if they signed elsewhere. Utecht is already actively shopping his services and is likely to land elsewhere.
8. Roby has a good chance to make the team.
9. Maybe Shelton, but he doesn't inspire me with all that much confidence yet.
10. Why a wideout and not a tight end? It's an awesome class for wide receivers, not so hot for tight ends.