Saturday, January 31, 2009

Know Your Colts: Defensive Ends


93 Dwight Freeney
Numbers: 6007/266/4.43pd in 02
2008 stats: 14 GP/14 GS (10-4 RDE), 23 TK, 7 AT, 10.5-78.5 SK, 33 QBH, 3-9 TFL, 4 FF, 1-5 PEN
2008 preseason stats: 1 GP/1 GS, 1 TK, 1 AT
Status: Signed through 2012

Freeney’s another of those players about whom there is little I can say that Colts fans don’t already know. He’s an awesome pass-rusher, he’s been nicked up a lot over the past couple of years, but has played through the pain and been generally effective. He’s improved against the run, no longer getting shoved away as often; so he can be considered a more complete end than he was earlier in his career. He’s a tough guy, a leader and he’s signed for a long time, so the only thing Colts fans have to worry about with Freeney would appear to be injuries.


79 Raheem Brock
Numbers: 6035/287/4.86pd in 02
2008 stats: 15 GP/15 GS (12-2 LDE, 0-1 LDT), 34 TK, 20 AT, 3.5-28 SK, 8 QBH, 2 FF, 1 FR, 3-20 PEN
2008 preseason stats: 3 GP/3 GS, 1 TK, 1 AT, 0.5-0.5 SK
Status: Signed through 2010

I consider Brock to be perhaps the most underrated of all Colts. He can start at any of the four line positions (and has). He’s the best run stopper of the linemen (and the only one who understands how to contain the old off-tackle properly). He’s not Freeney or Mathis when it comes to rushing the passer, but he’s not bad, combining speed with some pretty decent moves. The Colts often move Brock inside to defensive tackle on obvious passing downs, and he has been there most effective pass rusher inside for some years. When disaster hit the Colts’ defensive tackle corps last season, many fans wondered why Brock wasn’t moved inside on all downs. It’s simple — they needed him outside. It was no coincidence that the Colts were 12-2 with Brock at LDE, and 0-2 with Mathis.

Note: Brock started one game at LDT in the regular season

98 Robert Mathis
Numbers: 6027/235/4.67pd in 03
2008 stats: 13 GP/2 GS (0-2 LDE), 42 TK, 14 AT, 11.5-66.5 SK, 16 QBH, 2-4.5 TFL, 1 PBU, 5 FF, 3 FR, 3-15 PEN
2008 preseason stats: 3 GP/0 GS, 1 TK
Status: Signed through 2011

Mathis was born to rush the passer plain and simple. He’s got it all: an explosive first step, deadly closing speed, powerful hands and arms, a figure skater’s balance and a contortionist’s agility. Too bad it all comes in a 235-pound package. For years, people have been trying to figure out ways to keep him on the field. It became apparent early in his career he’s not a linebacker — he’s just no good going backwards. So the Colts played him as a full-time end and he suffered. He tried hard and made a few big plays, but he got run over with alarming consistency. Regaining their senses, the Colts coaches started Brock at left end, keeping Mathis free to do what he was designed to do.


91 Josh Thomas
Numbers: 6060/282/4.83pd in 04
2008 stats: 13 GP/3 GS (2-0 RDE, 1-0 RDT), 26 TK, 9 AT, 5 QBH, 1 PBU, 1-0 PEN
2008 preseason stats: 4 GP/3 GS, 2 TK, 3 AT, 1.5-13.4 SK, 2 QBH
Status: Unrestricted free agent

Colts fans misunderstand Thomas, and his value. He is bigger than your average Colts lineman, but that doesn’t mean he’s a blocker absorber. He plays the one-gap penetrator game just like the rest of them, and is pretty darn good at it. But he lacks one essential trait to make him a star — he lacks closing speed. He’ll get behind the lineman, but once he’s back there, a passer can take a step up, or the runner can make a quick cut and Thomas can be grasping air. He makes some plays, but not as many as it looks like he should.

Like Brock, Thomas plays about as well at any position on the line, and often moves inside to defensive tackle on obvious passing downs.

Note: Thomas started one game at RDT in the regular season and another at the same position in the preseason

92 Marcus Howard
Numbers: 6004/237/4.45c in 08
2008 stats: 6 GP/0 GS, 6 TK, 1 AT, 1.5-6 SK, 3 QBH, 0.5-0.5 TFL, 1 FF, 5 STT, 3 STA
2008 preseason stats: 3 GP/0 GS, 3 TK, 1 AT, 2.5-11 SK, 2 QBH, 1 PBU
Status: Signed through 2010

Before people declare Howard the second coming of Mathis, they should be forewarned that he has a lot of learning before that comparison is valid. Yes he’s small and fast and got a lot of college sacks, but Howard needs to learn to use his hands and put together combination pass-rush moves before he can make much of an impact.

He certainly looked the part in preseason and in the meaningless Game 16, when he played against the Titans’ backups. If you take away that game, Howard’s rookie stats on defense read like this: Two tackles and one quarterback hurry.

He’s a project, but the Colts have time with him. And unlike many other teams, they won’t screw him up by moving him to linebacker.

94 Curtis Johnson
Numbers: 6025/242/4.69c4.60pd in 08
2008 stats: 3 GP/0 GS, 2 TK, 3 AT, 1-9 SK, 6 STT
2008 preseason stats: 3 GP/0 GS, 2 TK, 1-1 TFL
Status: Signed through 2010

What can be said about Howard can be said about Johnson, only more so. He has similar skills, but is far rawer and more prone to mistakes like overpursuit and falling for fakes. And, like Howard, he didn’t do much as a rookie if you subtract Game 16.

While Johnson has the physical skills to become an NFL-quality pass rusher, I wouldn’t expect much from him right away. The Colts are set on the outside with Freeney and Mathis. As long as they are playing, there is little Howard or Johnson can do but learn from them.

How this affects the draft and free agency

The first question at the position has to do with Thomas. Keep him or let him go? Right now I’d say it’s 50-50. As a veteran, he’s entitled to a pretty big payday for a backup (even if no other team bids on him), and when he plays he doesn’t exactly set the league on fire. But he is versatile, consistently competent and a good locker-room guy. Besides, the backups at this point are all skinny little pass-rush guys, it’s unlikely they could step in his shoes.

So if Thomas leaves, they’d probably have to replace him. Perhaps the loser of the Keyunta Dawson/Eric Foster battles inside could slide outside and take over. Or maybe not.

The Colts could draft another end if he leaves, but knowing Bill Polian, he’d go for some 240-pound small schooler who piled up sacks even though he already has Mathis, Howard and Johnson on the roster. Actually, that could happen anyway. Polian is famous for his “you can’t have too many pass rushers” philosophy and could easily fall in love with one at any time. A couple of guys who fit his shopping list include Troy’s Kenny Mainor and Oregon State’s Slade Norris. Keep in mind that Polian will open up Colts camp as a home for wayward pass rushers, so expect any guy with potential who went undrafted or has been waived by another team to be invited to camp.

Note: Polian did not draft Thomas, but signed him as an undrafted free agent after much urging by Freeney, who was Thomas’s linemate and friend at Syracuse

Draft picks at the position since Polian took over

2008 Fifth Marcus Howard
2005 Fifth Jonathan Welsh
2003 Fifth Robert Mathis
2002 First Dwight Freeney
2002 Seventh Josh Mallard
1999 Fifth Brad Scioli
1999 Seventh Corey Terry

Thursday, January 29, 2009

Two new cornerback prospects


The Colts have signed another player, defensive back Travis Key (5085, 185, 4.54pd in 08). He played strong safety at Michigan State, and was very productive at the highest level of college football. Because of his size, though, most NFL teams scouted him at cornerback. When he ran some pretty disappointing times at his Pro Day, he went undrafted in 2008 and signed with the Vikings. They cut him. He signed with the Browns. They cut him. He signed with the Lions. They cut him. He signed with the Chargers. They cut him. He signed with the Colts. They’ll bring him to camp.

The reason he keeps getting signed is because he was a great player in college. He was solid in coverage, a fumble-causing hitter, a good tackler for a man his size and a good open-field runner who was a threat to score any time he got his hands on the ball. It was like someone had put Yeremiah Bell in a dryer and he came out two sizes too small.

After the Vikings (who gave him an audition at corner) cut him, he signed with the Browns and played in a couple of preseason games. They had him play at safety — the Browns ask their corners to do much more man coverage than the Vikings or Colts do — and he made a few plays, mostly against the run, and showed some ability as a blitzer.

The reason teams keep cutting him is because of his size. He’s not just short; he’s small. But he’s in the right place. The Colts are as close to a true meritocracy as you’ll find in the NFL. Hey, they gave Brandon Foster time on the field (in the regular season yet!), and he’s even smaller than Keys.

They’ll give Key a chance to contribute at reserve cornerback, which will be a very crowded spot this summer. The odds are stacked against him, but he was a walk-on who later became a star at Michigan State, so you never know.


A while ago, when the Colts were inking their practice squad guys, they also signed cornerback Brandon Sumrall (5097, 195, 4.60c/4.62pd). I remember this guy from Southern Miss, and was truly surprised when he went undrafted even with his poor Combine forty. I just relooked up his stats as a senior — 65 tackles, 33 assists, 5-20 tackles for loss, 1-8 sack, 6-101-1 interceptions, 8 passes broken up, 3 forced fumbles and a fumble recovery. He put up similar defensive numbers as a junior, when he played a strong safety and wasn’t bad returning kicks.

After the 2008 draft, he too signed with the Vikings. I watched him a little in the preseason, and thought he played well enough to make the team. He intercepted Kyle Boller in one game I watched, and made some nice plays on both defense and special teams. The Vikings didn’t agree with me, and they cut him. Tampa Bay signed him to their practice squad a couple of days later. They let him go, and the Colts grabbed him, only to let him go when they were juggling their own practice squad and he was injured in practice.

Sumrall will be thrown into the reserve cornerback fray and could well earn a roster spot if he plays as well as I think he can this summer. His only real negatives are his lack of deep speed and his ability to handle the quickest receivers in man coverage (most teams would consider him a safety prospect). But since the Colts system can compensate for those problems, his ability to win the No. 5 cornerback spot will probably depend on his ability on special teams.

Note: Brandon Foster may be tiny, but also runs a 4.28 forty.

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Know your Colts: Defensive tackles

This is No. 5 in the Know Your Colts series. This one deals with the defensive tackles.

Preface: Going into the 2008 season, defensive tackle was considered a weak spot for the Colts. They had Ed Johnson, the undrafted wünderkind from 2007, and they were planning to line up either 2007 third rounder Quinn Pitcock or seventh rounder Keyunta Dawson next to him. But it didn’t work out that way. Pitcock retired for reasons unknown in training camp, and Johnson self-immolated after being caught with weed after Game 1. Desperate, the Colts went with Dawson, the other guys they had hanging around and anyone else they could get their hands on. The results were less disastrous as the season went along.


96 Keyunta Dawson
Numbers: 6011/272/4.72pd in 07
2008 stats: 14 GP/14 GS (10-4, 6-3 RDT, 4-1 LDT), 21 TK, 21 AT, 3 QBH, 0.5 TFL, 1 FR, 2-15 PEN
2008 preseason stats: 4 GP/4 GS, 1 TK, 3 AT, 0.5-0.5 TFL
Status: Signed through 2010

Although you won’t see it in his stats, Dawson actually did a pretty credible job at defensive tackle last season. He wasn't great, but he also wasn't bad for a guy who played mostly end in college, and who most teams projected as a 3-4 linebacker when he came out. The first thing to know about Dawson is that you can throw that 272-pound Combine weight away — he plays at more like 250-255. Predictably, that accentuates his quickness and athleticism, but it also makes him easy for the big brutes he faces to throw him around. Basically, Dawson has to rely on beating the guards or centers he faces on the first step, or he’s erased from the play. Sometimes it works and he gets behind them, sometimes it doesn’t and he’s buried and run over. That seemed to happen more often last year late in games, especially if the Colts were not winning the time-of-possession war.

Of course, Dawson’s schtick would work a lot better if he had a little more help. For most of the season, he played with undrafted rookie Eric Foster beside him. Foster was such a similar player (and even easier to erase on running plays), that Dawson often got more blocking attention than he could handle.


68 Eric Foster
Numbers: 6015/277/4.89pd in 08
2008 stats: 13 GP/11 GS (9-2, 3-0 RDT, 6-2 LDT), 28 TK, 6 AT, 6 QBH, 2.5 TFL, 1 PBU, 4-15 PEN
2008 preseason stats: 5 GP/1 GS, 10 TK, 1 AT, 2-17 SK, 3 QBH, 3-7 TFL, 1 FF, 1 PBU
Status: Signed through 2010

It’s hard not to like Foster. I remember him at Rutgers. He was a killer pass-rusher, the most dangerous guy on the field and a great team leader. Of course, because of his size, most teams projected him as an end. And he didn’t quite fit the bill at that position, so he went undrafted. The Colts, of course, gave him an audition at tackle, and he made the team. Actually, if you saw him play in the preseason, you wouldn’t be surprised. He destroyed those scrubs, slithering through gaps and causing mayhem in backfields. He looked like he could be a third-down weapon.

But then the regular season came around and Foster was asked to start 11 games on a depleted Colts’ defensive line. And, it didn’t work out so well. He made a couple nice plays, especially against the pass, but was often nullified by big blockers, especially if he had to stay on the field too long. Opposing teams had a much better success rate running at him than they did at Dawson — and it’s not like he was Albert Haynesworth in there.

If there’s one thing that Foster’s rookie season taught us, it’s that he can be a contributor on an NFL defense, but he probably shouldn’t be a full-time starter. Instead, Foster should be coming in fresh on third downs, wreaking havoc on tired offensive linemen. But in order for that to happen, the Colts would kind of have to find some guy to play all the other downs.


99 Antonio Johnson
Numbers: 6030/310/5.15c5.08pd in 07
2008 stats: 4 GP/4 GS (4-0, 2-0 RDT, 2-0 LDT), 11 TK, 2 AT, 1 QBH
2008 preseason stats: 3 GP/0 GS, 5 TK, 1 AT, 1-3 TFL, 1-8 SK, 1-5 PEN with Tennessee
Status: undisclosed, but probably signed through 2010

When things got really bad for the Colts at defensive tackle last year, they signed pretty well every one who was available. They found a keeper when they plucked Johnson off the Titans' practice squad. The Colts’ faithful looked at his scouting report, noticed that his weight started with a 3 instead of a 2, and anointed him the long-lost nose tackle who had been missing since Tony Siragusa hung ‘em up. But, of course, if you watch the tape, you will see that Johnson is as much a nose tackle as he is a cornerback. Yeah, he’s a big guy, but he’s not there to absorb blockers so other players can get to the ballcarrier. He’s a big guy who plays the role of a one-gap penetrator. Think of Raheem Brock, only much, much bigger.

The Titans drafted Johnson in the fifth round in 2007, but an ACL injury destroyed his rookie season. He found himself the odd man out when the Titans’ found themselves very deep on the defensive line in 2008, and they attempted to hide him on the practice squad. When the Colts line was hit by multiple disasters in 2008, they grabbed him and eventually promoted him to full-time starter.

And he looked great last year, even though his statistics don’t reflect it. The Colts went 4-0 in games Johnson started — quite the feat considering Buster Davis started three of them at middle linebacker and he was just plain terrible. In games Johnson did not start, the Colts allowed an average of 133.84 yards rushing; in games Johnson started, they allowed 90.00. Make no mistake, the kid can play ball. Simply put, the Colts’ defense was much better when he played than they were when he didn’t. And I’m not even sure he was entirely over his ACL by the time he hit the starting lineup.

But there are issues. Johnson has all the physical attributes one looks for in a defensive tackle, but the knocks against him thus far have been discipline and intelligence. As far as discipline is concerned, he’s come to the right place. If the Colts can’t light a fire under his butt, nobody will. And intelligence? I’m not sure how fair that is. I’ve never met the young man, so I can’t really judge. But I do know that he is just nine hours short of his teaching degree. Besides, although I’ll be the first to admit the Colts’ defense is complicated, how hard is it to understand the defensive tackle position (especially when you have hands like Johnson)? Get past your man and nail the guy with the ball. I’d give him the benefit of the doubt on that.

Four starts may be too little to tell if Johnson will be an NFL success or not, but I think he’s earned the right to defend his starting spot when training camp comes around.


90 Daniel Muir
Numbers: 6017/303/4.92pd in 07
2008 stats: 3 GP/0 GS, 3 TK, 2 QBH, 1-15 PEN
2008 preseason stats: 6 GP/0 GS, 2 TK, 1 AT, 1 PBU, 1-0 PEN with Green Bay
Status: Signed through 2010

Muir is kind of like Johnson in that he’s a one-gap penetrator who just happens to weigh over 300 pounds. He’s not the nose tackle Colts fans may claim he is, just a bigger version of the guys they already have. A high school wrestler, Muir played alongside former Colts prospect Colin Ferrell on the inside of Kent’s defensive line, where both of them were very productive. In 46 games (45 starts), Muir recorded 35 tackles for loss and 14.5 sacks. He made the Packers as an undrafted free agent in 2007, but played in just three games due to injuries. They cut him after the following preseason, and the Colts picked him up. Again, injuries limited him. In the few times he appeared in games for the Colts, he showed some skill but no star power or consistency. He has a nice first step and a nice motor. He uses his hands fairly well, and when he stays low, he can do some damage.

At this point in his career, Muir has to be considered a wild card. Although he has some skills and is familiar with the team’s defensive scheme, his lack of experience and history of injuries work against him. He’s about as valuable as a middle-round draft pick at this point — he has the potential to contribute, but you can’t be sure he will.


Note: Muir’s middle name is Travanti, so he was presumably named after actor Daniel J. Travanti (left), who was the star of the very popular TV drama Hill Street Blues when Muir was born in 1983.


95 Darrell Reid
Numbers: 6016/284/4.88pd in 05
2008 stats: 15 GP/0 GS, 11 AT, 8 AT, 2 SK, 2.5 TFL, 11 STT, 7 STA, 3-15 PEN
2008 preseason stats: 5 GP/0 GS, 10 TK, 1 AT, 2-4 TFL, 1 QBH, 1 FF, 1 STT, 1-0 PEN
Status: Unrestricted free agent

Katy Perry would be familiar with Reid. Y’know, ‘cause he’s hot then he’s cold. Okay, I’m trying too hard. But the fact is that Reid is pretty inconsistent. He’s good at some things (like making highlight hits on special teams or taking advantage of holes in blocking schemes) and he’s bad at other things (shedding blocks, stopping runs aimed at him, pursuit in general).

And the Colts love this guy. Not only is he on every special team, he plays defensive tackle, defensive end, fullback and even tight end. But, if you ask me, he’s not really all that good at any of them. Still, he’s a fan and management favorite and he offers depth at a number of positions, so you can expect to see him around for a while. But if you see him playing regularly on defense, you know that all else has failed.

Note: The following players also started at defensive tackle for the Colts: Ed Johnson (one game, 0-1 RDT), Josh Thomas (one game, 1-0 RDT) and Raheem Brock (one game, 0-1 LDT). Johnson is no longer with the team, while Brock and Thomas are ends who are really only suited to play tackle on third downs. Thomas is an unrestricted free agent as of writing.

How does this affect the draft and free agency?

No position is harder to predict than defensive tackle. And every Colts’ fan has a different — and often loud — opinion there. So let’s look at it analytically.

What the Colts already have: When the dust finally settled at the end of the 2008 season, the defensive tackles were playing at a decent level. Johnson has become something of an anchor on the right, while Dawson (when he was healthy enough) and Foster added a little spark from the left. They were hammered a little in the playoff loss, but I think a lot of that had to do with: a) the Colts’ offense leaving the tired and beaten-up defense on the field too long, and b) the Colts’ coaching staff’s inability to come up with schemes to adapt to the special abilities of Chargers’ microback Darren Sproles. Could you go into battle with Johnson at one tackle, Dawson and Foster alternating at the other, Raheem Brock spelling Johnson on obvious passing downs and Muir backing them all up? I think you could. It wouldn’t be ideal, but you could.

Polian’s history of acquiring defensive tackles from other teams: The one position Polian has shown a willing to pay for other teams’ players has been at defensive tackle — probably because the Colts are usually desperate at the position. He’s done it on three noteworthy occasions: signing Corey Simon from Philadelphia in 2005, trading a second-round pick to Tampa Bay in 2006 for Booger McFarland and trading a fourth rounder to Buffalo in 2008 for John McCargo.

For those who don’t remember, Simon played one season and looked great for a few games before getting fat and crazy and was run out of town clutching bags of money in his hands. McFarland played one season (they did win the Super Bowl that year), before an injury ended his career. McCargo failed his physical and was sent back to Buffalo.

So what have we learned from this? If Polian’s back is to the wall, he will move. But I’m not sure that he thinks his back is to the wall. And, of the three guys he did acquire in the past, only McFarland wasn’t an out-and-out fiasco and even he was only a qualified success.

I think Colts fans can forget about acquiring Haynesworth as a free agent. As delightful as it would be for so many reasons, they just don’t have the cap room, and I’m not even sure they would invest that much money in the position even if they could. There’s an outside chance they could pursue a lower-level free agent like Jonathan Babineaux, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.

Notes: The Colts paid Simon $5,842,500 not to play last season. The pick traded to Tampa Bay for McFarland resulted in starting safety Sabby Piscitelli. The pick traded for McCargo was returned to the Colts.

How about the draft: When was the last time Polian drafted a defensive tackle in the first round? It’s a trick question, because the answer is never — not with the Colts, Panthers or Bills. And the Colts haven’t drafted a defensive tackle in the first round since they grabbed Ellis Johnson in 1995. He was pretty good at best.

Let’s look at the defensive tackles drafted in the first round over the last ten years, and see what the Colts have been missing:

2008: Glenn Dorsey Chiefs LSU, Sedrick Ellis Saints USC, Kentwan Ballmer 49ers North Carolina
2007: Amobi Okoye Texans Louisville, Justin Harrell Packers Tennessee
2006: Haloti Ngata Ravens Oregon, Brodrick Bunkley Eagles Florida State, John McCargo Bills North Carolina State
2005: Travis Johnson Texans Florida State, Mike Patterson Eagles USC
2004: Tommie Harris Bears Oklahoma, Vince Wilfork Patriots Miami, Marcus Tubbs Seahawks Texas
2003: Dewayne Robertson Jets Kentucky, Johnathan Sullivan Saints Georgia, Jimmy Kennedy Rams Penn State, William Joseph Giants Miami
2002: Ryan Sims Chiefs North Carolina, John Henderson Jaguars Tennessee, Wendell Bryant Cardinals Wisconsin, Albert Haynesworth Titans Tennessee
2001: Gerard Warren Browns Florida, Damione Lewis Rams Miami, Marcus Stroud Jaguars Georgia, Casey Hampton Steelers Texas
2000: Corey Simon Eagles Florida State, Chris Hovan Vikings Boston College
1999: Anthony McFarland Buccaneers Louisiana State, Reggie McGrew 49ers Florida
1998: Jason Peter Panthers Nebraska, Vonnie Holliday Packers North Carolina

Of the 31, I’d call 10 (almost a third!) absolute busts — Peter, McGrew, Warren, Bryant, Sims, Joseph. Kennedy, Sullivan, Robertson and McCargo. And just six (less than 20 percent) to be true successes — McFarland, Hampton, Stroud, Haynesworth, Henderson and Wilfork. The rest fell somewhere in between.

The sad truth is that there are just very few human beings big, fast, athletic and mean enough to play the position. The result is that teams are generally forced to pay too much — in terms of both cash and draft picks — for them. For the most part, Polian has wisely managed to stay out of the top end of the market. Instead he has spent whatever picks and cap space left over after the offense has been at them on ends, corners and middle linebackers.

Besides, I believe that Polian believes that the shortest way to get the Colts back to the Super Bowl is to fix the offense (which was 31st in the league running that ball) before fixing the defense (which was 24th in stopping the run).

So, although 90 percent of fans and a similar proportion of "draft experts" will disagree, I sincerely doubt the Colts will draft a defensive tackle in the first round.

Conclusion: So, if the Colts’ defensive tackle savior isn’t on the roster, isn’t likely to be bought in free agency and won’t be found in the first round, where will be come from? Well, it may not be a popular opinion, but I think the Colts will continue to do business as usual. They will enter camp with Johnson holding the starting spot on the right, and Dawson and/or Foster on the left. They will be joined by Brock on third downs and Muir will back them all up. And Polian will bring in one or two second-day draft picks, hoping to find someone who'll make an impact.

The Colts like hard-working athletic guys who can be creative with their pass-rushing moves. A couple of guys I’ve seen who fit the Colts’ bill are LSU’s Ricky Jean-Francois, Iowa’s Mitch King and Cincinnati’s Terrill Byrd.

Defensive tackles drafted by the Colts since Polian took over

2007 Third round Quinn Pitcock
2007 Seventh round Keyunta Dawson
2005 Third round Vincent Burns
2002 Second round Larry Tripplett
2002 Sixth round David Pugh
2002 Seventh round Josh Mallard
2000 Fourth round Josh Williams
2000 Seventh round Rob Renes

Sunday, January 25, 2009

Pass rusher comparo


Remember the Rolaids relief rankings? They’d give every relief pitcher in the majors something like three points for a save and one for a win and they’d deduct two for a blown save? Hey look, they still do. Well, here’s ColtPower’s version for pass rushers. I give two points for a sack and one for a pressure.

Defensive linemen
Dwight Freeney (above) 10.5 and 33 for 54
Robert Mathis 11.5 and 16 for 39
Raheem Brock 3.5 and 8 for 15
Eric Foster 0 and 6 for 6
Marcus Howard 1.5 and 3 for 6
Josh Thomas 0 and 5 for 5
Darrell Reid 2 and 0 for 4
Keyunta Dawson 0 and 3 for 3
Curtis Johnson 1 and 0 for 2
Daniel Muir 0 and 2 for 2
Antonio Johnson 0 and 1 for 1
Ed Johnson 0 and 1 for 1
Note: Ed Johnson is no longer with the Colts

Linebackers
Gary Brackett 0 and 2 for 2
Freddy Keiaho 0 and 2 for 2

Defensive backs
Melvin Bullitt 0 and 1 for 1
Tim Jennings 0 and 1 for 1

Conclusions
• Freeney and Mathis are awesome
• Brock, who plays end most of the time and tackle on 3rd downs, gets some push; he also helps keep Mathis fresh
• The actual defensive tackles contributed just about nothing
• The young rushers haven’t developed yet (virtually all of their production came in Game 16, when scrubs played on both sides)
• While I knew the Colts blitzed less than any team in the league and I haven’t seen the 2008 metrics yet, I am shocked by how little pressure they got from non-defensive linemen — six pressures and not a single sack.

Friday, January 23, 2009

Know Your Colts: Inside Linebackers

This is No. 4 in the Know Your Colts series. This one deals with the inside linebackers.


58 Gary Brackett
Numbers: 5110/237/4.75e in 03
2008 stats: 12 GP/12 GS (8-4 MLB), 62 TK, 51 AT, 1-1 TFL, 2 QBH, 2 PBU, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1-5 PEN
2008 preseason stats: 3 GP/3 GS, 4 TK, 2 AT, 0.5-0.5 TFL
Status: Signed through 2009

There’s very little to write about Brackett that Colts fans don’t already know. He’s a tackling machine tailor-made for the Colts defense. He plays against the run with quiet efficiency, and is one of the NFL’s best at his position in zone coverage. He does everything, even the little things, right and leaves everything on the field on every play.

That said, he can get caught up in the wrestling matches inside and erased fairly easily. He’s getting older, he’s one of the most highly paid Colts, and he’s an unrestricted free agent after next season.

Although history indicates the Colts let linebackers go when they get too expensive, I think that’s only true of the outside guys. Brackett is too important to the team, both from a physical standpoint (his production would be hard to replace) and from the emotional. Brackett was named captain of the defense, and is one of the most admired of all Colts players. A loyal sort, he’d also probably sign in Indy for less than his market value. Besides, there does not appear to be an in-house candidate to replace him (but more on that later).


52 Buster Davis
Numbers: 5093/239/4.64c4.74pd in 07
2008 stats: 4 GP/3 GS (3-0 MLB), 16 TK, 10 AT, 1-5 PEN
2008 preseason stats: 4 GP/1 GS 9 TK, 2 AT, 3 STT with Detroit Lions
Status: Signed through 2009

One of the most relentlessly hyped college players in recent memory, Davis has been a washout so far in his pro career. His story is an object lesson in projecting college production into the pros.

Drafted in the third round by the Cardinals in 2007, he was cut before the season started. They didn’t attempt to sign him to the practice squad, but a few days later, the linebacker-poor Lions did. They promoted him to the active roster for the last game of their 2007 season, and he played on specials, returning an onside kick one yard.

The Lions — yes, the Lions who would later go 0-16 — cut him and the injury-riddled Colts picked him up. When an injury stuck Brackett, the Colts started Davis in his place. At the time, some said it was a slap in the face to veteran No. 4 linebacker Tyjuan Hagler, but if I recall correctly, he was fighting injuries of his own. The Colts went 3-0 with Davis in the middle, but it was more in spite of him than because of him. He was benched in two of those three games (weakside starter Freddy Keiaho slid over to the middle, with ailing Hagler taking his spot) and played sparingly in the playoff game, making no impact.

Though not a bad tackler technically and plenty quick, Davis looked lost in play recognition and was a dud in coverage. He took some pretty strange angles in the running game and spent an alarming amount of time on the ground. I have a theory as to why Davis is not a good pro linebacker, besides the mental aspect. He seems to me to be top heavy. He has a great big upper body on legs that are much thinner than you’d expect. That makes it hard for him to change direction quickly because his feet move in one direction and inertia carries his upper half in another.

It would appear that Davis has failed his audition at middle linebacker and, since he really doesn’t offer much on special teams, I’d be surprised if he’s invited back. He could well have a future in the NFL, but it doesn’t look like it will happen in Indianapolis.

Mike Okwo
Numbers: 5113, 232/4.70c4.65pd in 07
2008 stats: None
2008 preseason stats: 3 GP/0 GS, 5 TK, 1 PBU

Another short, stocky linebacker taken in the same third round as Davis, Okwo was also a surprise cut by the team that selected him, although Okwo at least got a year on injured reserve before the Bears got rid of him.

I remember his well from college where he was the best player on a bad Stanford defense. Although he was very blockable, he showed good instincts and zip, he generally knew where the ball was, kept square and was a competent, if not frightening, tackler. He was rarely asked to do anything strenuous in coverage and showed little as a blitzer. I thought he had NFL potential, but was surprised he was drafted as high as he was.

What Okwo offers as an NFL linebacker remains to be seen, and I wouldn’t hold my breath for him to develop. But in his first two seasons with the Cardinal, he was something of a special-teams demon, getting downfield quickly and specializing in blocking kicks. It’s likely that particular skill would transfer well to the NFL. Despite the fact that the Colts have been very weak on special teams in recent years, I’m not sure they would devote a roster spot for such a player. Of course, if he showed he could play a little linebacker, things could be different.

How this affects the draft and free agency

I think Davis’s chances of taking over for Brackett any time soon are close to nil, and Okwo’s are only slightly less remote.

So to understand how things will work out inside, you have to pay attention to how things work outside. Weakside starter Keiaho — who probably could start and be okay for the Colts inside — is likely to leave as a free agent after this season. And Hagler, who also has some ability to play inside, will probably be gone before the 2009 season starts.

That would lead to two realistic scenarios: either Jordan Senn takes over Keiaho’s spot, or Clint Session slides over from the strongside and Philip Wheeler takes his spot.

Of course Wheeler could also be in the mix at middle linebacker (after all, he played better inside than outside at Georgia Tech), but I wouldn’t count on it. While Wheeler has undeniable skills, I think he’s better suited to an outside position in the Colts’ complicated defense. He just doesn’t have the quick, analytical mind Brackett possesses — and the Colts have come to depend on.

So right now the cupboard is bare for middle linebacker depth, and the Colts would still like to find someone with a chance to eventually take over for Brackett. Almost certainly, that means the draft. But it should be kept in mind that such linebackers are rare. Brackett himself was an undrafted walk-on at Rutgers who wasn’t mentioned in any draft guide or site that I ever saw, so the Colts could go just about anywhere to find his replacement.

One middle linebacker who has show great football smarts and coverage abilities is Miami of Ohio’s Joey Hudson. If he’s over his shoulder injury, he could be an interesting pick.

Linebackers selected by the Colts since Polian took over

2008 Third round Philip Wheeler
2007 Fourth round Clint Session
2006 Third round Freddie Keiaho
2005 Fifth round Tyjuan Hagler
2004 Third round Gilbert Gardner
2004 Fourth round Kendyll Pope
2003 Fifth round Keyon Whiteside
2003 Sixth round Cato June
2002 Fourth round David Thorton
2000 First round Rob Morris
2000 Second round Marcus Washington
1999 Second round Mike Peterson
1998 Fifth round Antony Jordan

Note: Tony Dungy brought the Cover-2 defense to Indy in 2002, and the Colts have not drafted a linebacker in the first or second round since.

Thursday, January 22, 2009

The curse of the third round

People talk about Bill Polian’s poor record in the third round, so I thought ColtPlay should take a look.

Polian’s third-round picks with the Colts:

2008 93rd pick Philip Wheeler LB Georgia Tech
• jury’s still out, but so far he looks pretty good
2007 95th pick Daymeion Hughes DB California
• bumped from No. 4 corner spot by waiver-wire pickup Keiwan Ratliff, and is in danger of losing his roster spot
2007 98th pick Quinn Pitcock DT Ohio State
• retired unexpectedly after promising rookie season
2006 94th pick Freddie Keiaho LB San Diego State
• quality starter who could play for just about team
2005 92nd pick Vincent ‘Sweet Pea’ Burns DE Kentucky
• hailed as the next John Randle, Burns was ineffective the few times he was healthy enough to play; recorded zero tackles in two NFL seasons
2004 68th pick Ben Hartsock TE Ohio State
• rarely played behind Marcus Pollard and Dallas Clark, he later signed with Tennessee and then later Atlanta; In six NFL seasons, he has caught 27-273-0, including just 6-41-0 in three seasons with the Colts
2004 69th pick Gilbert Gardner (left) LB Purdue

• played a lot for the Colts early in his career, but didn’t distinguish himself; later bounced around with Tennessee, Detroit and, finally, Chicago; in the last three seasons, he has played in 16 games, starting none
2003 90th pick Donald Strickland DB Colorado
• played okay for the Colts before he made a big stink about being healthy enough to play while on IR, which forced the Colts to waive him, he later played a bit with the Eagles and 49ers — he’s still there, and even starts from time to time
2002 74th pick Joseph Jefferson DB Western Kentucky
• big, fast small-schooler showed flashes of greatness, but couldn’t stay healthy enough to contribute; played 27 of a possible 64 games
2001 91st pick Cory Bird DB Virginia Tech
• decent special teamer was too sloppy in coverage to play much on defense; played 45 games for Colts, starting eight
2000 91st pick David Macklin DB Penn State
• spent four years with Colts as an on-again, off-again starter, bounced around with Arizona, Washington, St. Louis and Kansas City, where he’s now the No. 5 corner
1999 63rd pick Brandon Burlsworth G Arkansas
• a tragic fatal accident prevented Burlsworth from ever playing a down with the Colts
1998 71st pick E.G. Green WR Florida State
• another promising player whose career was derailed by injury — caught 54-665-2 in three seasons with the Colts

Polian’s third-round picks with Carolina

1997 87th pick Kinnon Tatum LB Notre Dame
1996 73rd pick Winslow Oliver RB New Mexico
1996 88th pick J.C. Price DT Virginia Tech

Polian’s third-round picks with Buffalo

1992 83rd pick Keith Goganious LB Penn State
1991 82nd pick Darryl Wren DB Pittsburg State
1990 69th pick Glenn Parker T Arizona
1988 65th pick Bernard Fored WR Central Florida
1987 60th pick David Brandon LB Memphis State
1987 78th pick Jamie Mueller RB Benedictine
1986 77th pick Leonard Burton C South Carolina

Conclusion

We’ll I’ll be damned. Polian really has been absolutely horrible in the third round. If you subtract Wheeler because it’s too early to tell how good he is, the master evaluator has hit on just two (Keiaho and Parker) of 23 third-round picks. There were some okay players (like Macklin, Strickland and Mueller) and there were some if-only players (Jefferson, Green) and there was one nobody-could-have-predicted (Burlsworth), but when it comes down to it, the third round has been a dead zone for Polian.

So does that mean we should just forget any player Polian drafts in the third round this year? Quite the opposite — he’s due.

Coyer the Destroyer?


If the Colts have name Larry Coyer (left) as their new defensive coordinator, then what does that mean for personnel decisions? Business as usual.

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Roster addition


The Colts announced the signing of former Bears third-round pick inside linebacker Mike Okwo. I'll have more details about him in the next edition of Know Your Colts.

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Know Your Colts: Outside Linebackers

This is No. 3 in ColtPlay's Know Your Colts series. This one deals with the outside linebackers.


54 Freddy Keiaho
Numbers: 5112/224/4.68pd in 06
2008 stats: 14 GP/14 GS (10-4 WLB), 72 TK, 42 AT, 5-5 TFL, 2 QBH, 2 FR, 1 STT, 2-16 PEN
2008 preseason stats: 3 GP/3 GS, 3 TK, 2 AT, 0.5-0.5 TFL
Status: Signed through 2009, due for a big raise

Keiaho is the definitive Colts linebacker. He’s fast and aggressive. He can bolt through a gap like a running back and stop a play dead. He hits hard, and can cause a fumble. He’s also undersized and can be ridden out of the any by a determined blocker. Against the pass, he blitzes maybe three or four times a year and falls into zone coverage the rest of the time.

Of course, Colts linebackers don’t come out of a factory, and Keiaho has idiosyncrasies just like Cato June and David Thornton and all the others did. The one thing that stands out about Keiaho as opposed to the others is his aggressiveness. Optimists call it a great motor, pessimists call is a lack of discipline — and they’re both right. It has its plusses and minuses; he hits with fury and he misses tackles with equal fury. Yeah, Keiaho misses some tackles. But isn’t that what safeties are for in the Cover-2?

His coverage abilities are very much like his abilities against the run. He’s a bit wild, but usually effective. Keiaho isn’t fast enough to match up with the best pass-catching halfbacks, but can usually handle a tight end and scares the hell out of wide receivers silly enough to encroach on his territory.

Historically, the biggest complaint against Keiaho has been his ability to diagnose plays. He has improved greatly in this regard, but it’s still his weak spot, and he still relies on his short-area quickness to overcome it.

It may just be my opinion, but I actually prefer Keiaho at middle linebacker — where he played at college and a few times last season (more on that in a later post) — than on the weakside. He sees gaps better in there, and is responsible for a different kind of space in coverage.


55 Clint Session
Numbers: 5110/236/4.52c in 07
2008 stats: 16 GP/15 GS (11-4 SLB), 70 TK, 29 AT, 10-15 TFL, 2 PBU, 3 FF, 4 STT
2008 preseason stats: 3 GP/1 GS, 5 TK, 2-4 TFL, 1 STA
Status: Signed through 2010

If Keiaho is the portrait of a Colts linebacker, Session is a caricature of one. Oh, he’s plenty quick and slippery, finding himself behind opponents’ offensive linemen with shocking regularity. And he does pack a huge punch when he hits; he jars bodies and makes balls come loose. So what’s not to like? Well, he misses tackles with disheartening regularity, finds it difficult to shed even the least skilled of blockers and can be absolutely erased if a guard or center gets so much as a finger on him.

While he can be a weapon against the run, Session is something of a liability against the pass. Trapped in a defense that won’t allow him to blitz (although I think he’d be only occasionally effective at it anyway), Session is forced into coverage a lot, and it is not his forte. He’ s fast and quick and gets nice deep drops, but he just hasn’t mastered the art. At the beginning of his rookie season, his coverage skills were an atrocity, since then, they have improved to disaster, then to embarrassment and now seemed to have peaked at almost adequate.


56 Tyjuan Hagler
Numbers: 5115/236/4.62c in 05
2008 stats: 8 GP/3 GS (2-0 WLB, 0-1 SS), 13 TK, 8 AT, 1 FF, 8 STT, 4 STA
2008 preseason stats: None
Status: Unrestricted free agent

If Keiaho is caffeinated and Session is your linebacker on crack — that’s just a metaphor, kids, I’m not accusing Session, a fine young man from what I know about him, of taking illegal substances — then Hagler is the sugar-free version. He’s similar to the other guys, but less so in every way. But that’s not necessarily a bad thing. He’s also less likely to miss tackles, botch assignments or blow coverages. It’s as though he’s missing the spectacular gene, but was born with two in the reliability department.

He is, however, only reliable when he is on the field. Since has drafted by the Colts in 2005, he has played in just 30 of 64 possible regular-season games, and never more than 12 games in a single season. And even when he has played, he’s often been nicked up.

Because of the frequency of his injuries, the Colts have already gotten used to life without Hagler. That should continue. because Hagler is an unrestricted free agent and is unlikely to be re-signed. As a rule, the Colts don’t re-sign their free-agent linebackers (even starters, and Hagler isn’t one), and Polian — Bob Sanders notwithstanding — rarely invests much money in guys with injury problems.

There is a chance Hagler could be back in Coltland, but it’s very slim. Should no team take a chance on him or if he’s cut in the summer, the Colts could invite him back, especially if they have injuries at linebacker.


51 Jordan Senn
Numbers: 5110/224/4.53pd in 08
2008 stats: 9 GP/0 GS, 5 TK, 2 AT, 1-1 TFL, 11 STT, 5 STA, 1-10 PEN
2008 preseason stats: 5 GP/2 GS, 26 TK, 2 AT, TFL 1-1, STT
Status: Signed through 2010

It’s easy to understand why Colts fans didn’t know who Senn was before the Colts signed him. I mean, most draft magazines didn’t mention him and the few draft sites that did rated him as about the 40th-best strong safety. In fact, he was a ridiculously productive linebacker at little-watched Portland State. But when the experts saw him measure in at less than six feet, they banished him to the obscurity of maybe he’s a safety. Colts fans called him “camp fodder,” and predicted him to be cut every time he turned around.

Then he got some serious playing time in the preseason and distinguished himself. Sure, lots of his tackles came a few yards downfield, but much of that could be attributed to really, really poor defensive line play. Senn, on the other hand, showed good pursuit, play diagnosis and zone coverage abilities. And, like every good Colts linebacker, he had trouble shedding.

When the last cuts came around, the fans still called for his head. They preferred Ramon Guzman and Terna Nande, even though Senn had clearly outplayed them both.

In the regular season, Senn played mainly on special teams. On them, he distinguished himself as perhaps the team’s most consistent performer, though others got more press. He didn’t play much on defense, but when he did, it was generally in nickel situations. And he didn’t do bad at all for an undersized unknown out of Nowhere U, showing good range and quickness.

So, where does this leave him? I’m not sure he’s a future starter, but I wouldn’t rule it out. He made an impressive transition from Portland State to NFL reserve, but it may be a bigger leap to NFL starter. The Colts have started worse (Senn’s already much better than Gilbert Gardner), so it’s not out of the realm of possibility.

But I’m sure Senn won’t just step right into Hagler’s do-it-all swing backup position because his lack of bulk probably limits him to the weakside or nickel situations.

His real value, right now at least, is as a special teamer. Though he seems to be quite gregarious off the field, Senn brings an assassin’s mentality to kick coverage. Can he build a career in Indy as a part-time linebacker and full-time special teamer? I don’t see why not.


50 Philip Wheeler
Numbers: 6017/248/4.76c4.66pd in 08
2008 stats: 8 GP/0 GS 2 TK, 1 AT, 1-2 TFL, 11 STT, 3 STA, 2-10 PEN
2008 preseason stats: 1 GP/1 GS, 6 TK, 1 AT
Status: Signed through 2011

If you’re like most Colts fans, the selection of Wheeler in the last draft probably mystified you. It was glaringly obvious that an heir apparent for longtime Mike starter Gary Brackett was needed, and the Colts almost always grab an outside linebacker or two every draft, but Wheeler didn’t seem to fit the bill. I mean, he’s a big guy — huge by Colts’ standards. And his specialty in college was, of all things, blitzing. He wasn’t considered much of a hard worker, and had never distinguished himself in coverage. It seemed to many that Wheeler was a player with the potential to be good, but that he was with the wrong team.

And his NFL career didn’t start on the strongest of notes. Injured in the summer, he played in just one preseason game. One of the big problems with Wheeler in college was that he had never really settled into one position, after coming into Georgia Tech as a defensive end before alternating between Sam and Mike. To make matters worse, he started his only preseason game at Mike, then the Colts shifted him to backup Sam when the regular season started.

When he did play in the regular season, he was only okay. He certainly didn’t embarrass himself on defense, but when Brackett went down late in the season, Wheeler wasn’t on the short list of replacements. But he was actually pretty good on special teams, showing skills as both a tackler and a blocker. The highlight of his season was when he recovered an onside kick attempt against the Jaguars. But even on specials, he showed an unnerving lack of discipline. And he was clearly outplayed by Senn.

Of course, after just one season, it’s too early to determine how good Wheeler is, or will be. He obviously needs more seasoning to contribute inside or out. The most likely scenario would be for him to spend 2009 and perhaps 2010 as a Hagleresque swing backup. And if he hasn’t earned a starting spot by then (preferably in the middle, where I think he’s better suited), he’ll probably be looking for a job in another city.

Note: I am predisposed to like Wheeler as he is a fan of both Jerry Lewis and the Andy Griffith Show.

59 Rufus Alexander
Numbers: 6007/228/4.79c4.69pd in 07
2008 stats: 2GP/0 GS with Minnesota Vikings
2008 preseason stats: 4 GP/1 GS, 12 TK, 1 AT, 2-4 TFL with Minnesota Vikings
Status: Signed through 2009

Two years ago at about this time, there was a lot of excitement about Alexander in Coltland. It made sense, he was an active, undersized outside linebacker who was very productive (118 tackles, 13 TFL and 3 sacks as a senior) at a big-time program (Oklahoma). But then the Combine came around, and Alexander ran like a guard, not just in the forty, but in the other drills as well. He also didn’t impress too many people with his skinny-legged build and a reputation for taking plays off.

The Colts didn’t draft him, but the Vikings did in the sixth round. A torn ACL wiped out his rookie season, but they gave him some opportunities in the 2008 preseason. Although he was mostly playing against scrubs, he looked pretty good against the run and okay against the pass. He was one of their final cuts and was re-signed to the practice squad. When injuries hit, they re-signed him to the active roster and he ran around some on special teams. They cut him again, and put him back on the practice squad. When injuries hit the Colts’ LB squad, they signed Alexander. He was inactive for three games before they cut him and stashed him on the practice squad. Just before he was due to become an unrestricted free agent, the Colts signed him to a 2009 contract.

Clearly, they saw something that warranted an invitation to camp. Alexander is smart and a solid citizen, and you can’t deny his production at Oklahoma. But he’ll be 26 when next camp opens, and is probably too slight to play Sam or Mike. So he’ll be fighting Senn and perhaps a few rookies for a roster spot designated for a special teamer who can compete for time at Will. Perhaps the team feels that another year removed from his ACL injury will bring him back into the form he showed as a Sooner. At any rate, his progress bears watching.

How this affects the draft and free agency

With Ron Meeks out of the picture, it’s harder to predict what the Colts will do defensively in the draft. Depending on who it is and how much power he has, things could change dramatically. They could blitz more (an idea I’d have to be sold on), they could put in more man-coverage schemes (a bad idea) or they could go 3-4 (a truly horrific idea).

But if things go according to the plan that was already in place, here’s what is likely to happen. They’ll start Keiaho at Will and Session at Sam for 2009. Keiaho, as is Colts tradition, will leave as a free agent after the season. He will then be replaced by Senn, a 2009 draft pick or Wheeler will step in at Sam and Session will take over at Will. They’ll draft more linebackers in the third through sixth rounds and they get groomed to take over as Session, Senn, Wheeler and others move on. It’s the Colts’ way. It’s the circle of life.

So, if things go the way they have since the Tony Dungy regime took over, look for the Colts to draft a fast, active, perhaps underweight outside linebacker (or two) on the second day of the draft. I’m looking at a couple of guys, in particular Ashlee Palmer out of Ole Miss, Oregon State’s Victor Butler and DeAndre Levy out of Wisconsin.

And while the Colts almost never sign other teams’ free agents, they have added the odd low-buck linebacker like Rocky Boiman in the past. I don’t see it happening this year, unless injuries or draft holdouts make it necessary.

Note: I think Wheeler should stay inside — he played much better inside than out at Georgia Tech — but that’s just me.

Linebackers selected by the Colts since Polian took over

2008 Third round Philip Wheeler
2007 Fourth round Clint Session
2006 Third round Freddie Keiaho
2005 Fifth round Tyjuan Hagler
2004 Third round Gilbert Gardner
2004 Fourth round Kendyll Pope
2003 Fifth round Keyon Whiteside
2003 Sixth round Cato June
2002 Fourth round David Thornton
2000 First round Rob Morris
2000 Second round Marcus Washington
1999 Second round Mike Peterson
1998 Fifth round Antony Jordan

Note: Tony Dungy brought the Cover-2 defense to Indy in 2002, and the Colts have not drafted a linebacker in the first or second round since.

Monday, January 19, 2009

The Usual Suspects


Here’s ColtPlay’s annual report on Colts penalties. Players are listed by their normal position on plays from scrimmage, not where they were penalized. For example, Darrell Reid is listed with defensive linemen, despite the fact that of his three penalties, one was on offense and the other two were on special teams.

Quarterbacks
3-15 Peyton Manning
• All three were delay of game calls, and knowing Manning, they were probably all intentional

Running backs
1-5 Dominic Rhodes

Wide receivers
2-15 Marvin Harrison
1-15 Pierre Garcon
1-10 Reggie Wayne
1-5 Anthony Gonzalez

Tight ends
2-15 Gijon Robinson
2-5 Dallas Clark
1-10 Jacob Tamme
• Tamme’s illegal block wiped out a 45-yard kick return by Courtney Roby

Offensive linemen
7-40 Ryan Diem (above)
6-40 Tony Ugoh
4-35 Mike Pollak
2-10 Jamey Richard
2-10 Charlie Johnson
1-5 Steve Justice
• One of Diem’s holds wiped out a 63-yard touchdown reception by Reggie Wayne
• One of Ugoh’s infractions negated a 22-yard catch by Wayne on 3rd-and-2, and he had three penalties on one drive against Houston, which ended in a field goal

Defensive linemen
4-15 Eric Foster
3-20 Raheem Brock
3-15 Darrell Reid
3-15 Robert Mathis
2-15 Keyunta Dawson
1-5 LaJuan Ramsey
1-5 Dwight Freeney
1-5 Antonio Johnson
1-0 Josh Thomas
• One of Brock’s calls wiped out a sack on 3rd-and-1

Linebackers
2-16 Freddy Keiaho
2-10 Philip Wheeler
1-10 Jordan Senn
1-5 Gary Brackett
1-5 Buster Davis
• One of Keiaho’s penalties gave the Jaguars a 1st-and-10 instead of an incomplete on a 4th-and-1

Defensive backs
5-55 Tim Jennings
5-42 Marlin Jackson
4-40 Nick Graham
3-15 Jamie Silva
2-25 Dante Hughes
2-10 Antoine Bethea
2-7 Kelvin Hayden
1-15 Melvin Bullitt
1-10 Matt Giordano
1-5 Keiwan Ratliff
• Jackson had as many penalties as Jennings in less than half as many games
• Graham had as many penalties as tackles
• One of Hayden’s miscues gave the Lions a 2nd-and-goal on the Colts’ 2-yard line
• Giordano’s illegal block wiped out a 52-yard kick return by Garcon

Other
1-5 Team

Saturday, January 17, 2009

Depth chart minus UFAs and RFAs


The Colts announced the signings of LB Rufus Alexander, S Brannon Condren, CB Brandon Foster, WR Samuel Giguere, T Corey Hilliard (above), TE Jamie Petrowski, WR Taj Smith and CB Brandon Sumrall. I'll fill you in about all of them later, but for now, let's put together a depth chart of signed players and ERFAs (who might as well be signed).

QB 18 Peyton Manning, 12 Jim Sorgi

RB 29 Joseph Addai, 32 Mike Hart, 35 Chad Simpson, 27 Lance Ball, 30 Clifton Dawson
• Hart and Dawson finished the season on injured reserve

FL 87 Reggie Wayne, 85 Pierre Garcon, 14 Samuel Giguere
SE 88 Marvin Harrison, 11 Anthony Gonzalez, 83 Roy Hall, 6 Taj Smith
• Harrison could be a salary cap casualty

TE 44 Dallas Clark, 84 Jacob Tamme, 80 Jamie Petrowski
H-B 47 Gijon Robinson, 86 Tom Santi
• Santi finished the season on injured reserve

RT 71 Ryan Diem, 75 Michael Toudouze, 72 Corey Hilliard
RG Mike Pollak
C 61 Jamey Richard, 53 Steve Justice
LG 65 Ryan Lilja
LT 67 Tony Ugoh, 74 Charlie Johnson
• Lilja missed 2008 season on PUP list

RDE 93 Dwight Freeney, 92 Marcus Howard, 94 Curtis Johnson
RDT 99 Antonio Johnson, 90 Daniel Muir
LDT 96 Keyunta Dawson, 68 Eric Foster
LDE 79 Raheem Brock, 98 Robert Mathis

RLB 54 Freddy Keiaho, 51 Jordan Senn, 59 Rufus Alexander
MLB 58 Gary Brackett, 52 Buster Davis
LLB 55 Clint Session, 50 Philip Wheeler

RCB 23 Tim Jennings, 25 Michael Coe, 34 TJ Rushing, 39 Brandon Foster
LCB 28 Marlin Jackson, 20 Dante Hughes, 42 Nick Graham, 36 Brandon Sumrall
SS 21 Bob Sanders, 40 Jamie Silva
FS 41 Antoine Bethea, 33 Melvin Bullitt, 37 Brannon Condren
• Coe, Rushing missed 2008 season on injured reserve, Jackson finished the season on injured reserve

K 4 Adam Vinatieri
P 17 Hunter Smith
LS 48 Justin Snow

Friday, January 16, 2009

Know Your Colts: Cornerbacks

This is the second in ColtPlay’s series of offseason positional breakdowns. This one concerns the cornerbacks.


Kelvin Hayden
Numbers: 5103/197/4.48c in 05
2008 stats: 10 GP/10 GS (8-2 LCB), 36 TK, 6 AT, 1 FF, 12 PBU, 3-135-1 INT, 2-7 PEN
2008 preseason stats: 3 GP/3 GS, 6 TK, 1-67-1 INT, 1-10 PEN
Status: Unrestricted free agent

I remember back in 2005 when I wrote for some website about how much I wanted the Colts to draft Hayden. I saw him as a good athlete with a high ceiling who still had lots to learn about the cornerback position, but had shown some great flashes.

A day hadn’t passed when some guy wrote a long and impassioned e-mail to me about what a big mistake that would be. It made sense, so I, credulously, took Hayden off my list. That was the last time I listened to “some guy.”

To be honest, Hayden (who started college as a wide receiver, but couldn’t catch) took a while to develop, but once he did, he became a superior Cover-2 corner. He’s not a star — corners don’t have to be in this defense — but he is very effective.

He’s an unrestricted free agent, but he’s a Polian favorite and Polian has a habit of handing blank checks to cornerbacks’ agents. If the Colts are slow with their offer, or Hayden is determined to test the free-agency waters, things could get ugly. But the past has indicated that Polian very rarely loses any free agents he intends to keep.


Marlin Jackson
Numbers: 6005/198/4.52c4.48pd in 05
2008 stats: 7 GP/7 GS (3-4 RCB) 41 TK, 6 AT, 1.5 TFL, 1 FF, 1 PBU, 5-42 PEN
2008 preseason stats: 4 GP/4 GS, 7 TK, 1 PBU
Status: Signed through 2009, due for a raise, ended season on injured reserve

It’s hard not to compare Jackson to Hayden. They were drafted together and became starters together.

So, okay, let’s compare them. Hayden is a little better in coverage, both man and zone. Hayden leaves less of a cushion, and allows fewer short completions. Hayden has better hands (which is a terrible, terrible indictment of Jackson because Hayden’s hands are like stone) and is more of a threat with the ball in his hands. Jackson is a better tackler, especially in the open field. When Jackson hits you, you know you’ve been hit and you may not remember to hold onto the ball. Jackson is also a better blitzer and is better at shedding blocks, but he also racks up more penalties.

But in truth, the differences — all of them — are slight. Think of Jackson as the tougher, big brother and Hayden as the slightly more athletic little brother. The difference? Hayden has a contract due and Jackson doesn’t until next season.


Tim Jennings
Numbers: 5077/185/4.32c4.28pd in 06
2008 stats: 15 GP/12 GS (7-0 RCB, 3-2 LCB), 49 TK, 14 AT, 1 QBH, 2.5-2.5 TFL, 2 FF, 2 FR, 7 PBU, 2-9-0 INT, 2 STT, 2 STA, 5-55 PEN
2008 preseason stats: 5GP/3 GS, 16 TK, 1 AT, 2-4 TFL, 2 QBH, 3 PBU, 1 STT, 1-15 PEN
Status: Signed through 2009, due for a raise

If you read what the Colts fans have to say about Jennings, you’d think he was sent to Indy by the devil. Oh, I only wish they would watch the game more closely. I’m gonna say this and I don’t care what anyone thinks — Jennings is, by a distinct margin, the best coverage man in the Colts’ secondary. Seriously, watch this kid. He swims around receivers like a piranha. No matter where you are, there he is — in your face. And if you watch the tape, you will see that this guy is fearless against the run, taking on backs far bigger than himself and blitzing like a teeny, tiny linebacker.

But there are significant drawbacks: a) Jennings is so short, he can walk under most tables without bending; as good as he is in coverage, those tall guys are always gonna eat him for breakfast, b) Jennings is willing to sacrifice his body to make a tackle, but just doesn’t have the frame or the technique to be very good at it, and c) Jennings is something of a nut, grabbing facemasks and jerseys and hitting guys whenever and wherever he feels like it, no matter what the rules say. And sometimes he just plain blows coverages. He gets especially sloppy when he feels overmatched.

So what do we do with a problem like Timmy? It’s important to make sure he plays where he belongs. Note that in 2008, the Colts were 3-2 when Jennings played LCB (ie. covering the opposing team’s top receiver), but 7-0 when Jennings started at RCB (ie. covering the opponent’s No. 2 receiver). Ideally, Jennings would be the third corner, covering all those slippery little guys who would give Hayden and Jackson headaches, slipping outside when a team has a Wes Welker or a Ted Ginn in the starting lineup.

But injuries to the starters prevented that in 2008. So Jennings played — basically out of position — outside. He was beaten sometimes, but not more often than the starters would have been, and his aggressive nature turned to frustration and he was responsible for more penalties than I think he’d like to remember.

It appears likely that Hayden will be re-signed, and that Jackson will recover from his injuries before next season. In that scenario, Jennings would return to his familiar and effective spot as the third guy, the guy who covers the slot man, and all will be well again at the top of the Colts cornerback corps.


Keiwan Ratliff
Numbers: 5107/188/4.62c in 04
2008 stats: 10 GP/4 GS (2-0 RCB, 1-0 LCB, 1-0 NB) 22 TK, 4 AT, 1 FR, 5 PBU, 2-37-1 INT, 5 STT, 1 STA, 16-89-0 (12 FC) PR
2008 preseason stats: 5 GP/1 GS, 11 TK, 1 AT, 2 PBU, 1-4-0 INT, STT, 3-12-0 (3 FC) PR
Status: Unrestricted free agent

When the Bengals selected Ratliff in the second round of the 2004 draft, I remember thinking that he was a great college player who didn’t have the speed to cut it in the NFL. I watched him for years at Florida. He did everything right, but just wasn’t fast enough and didn’t have the size to offset it. When Cincinnati cut him later on, I felt like he was done.

But then he shows up in Coltland, brushes aside some vaunted recent draft picks, installs himself as No. 4 corner (which meant four starts in an injury-riddled secondary) and even returns punts.

I still say he’s slow. But now I see what the Bengals saw. Ratliff is an intelligent, disciplined defensive back who uses his instincts and positioning to come up with some unlikely plays. He’s quick in confined spaces and never backs down, often wrestling for the ball or dragging a man down. He’s one of those guys that GMs want to replace, but coaches want to hang onto — kind of like a 21st-century Eugene Daniel, but to a lesser extent.

As far as Ratliff’s contributions as a return man, I’m not as impressed. He has vision and can cut, but his lack of footspeed prevents him from making much of an impact there. I think he was back there simply because he was the only available guy the Colts had who the coaching staff thought would catch the ball every time. Not surprisingly, he had almost as many fair catches as returns.

If we continue with the Hayden signed/Jackson healed scenario, I think Ratliff has a good chance at a roster spot on the team if he re-signs. He has clearly outplayed the younger options at the position, is durable and has the mentality to play on specials. The Colts would be smart to offer him a short-term contract (perhaps one with a number of incentives geared towards starts, interceptions and/or return yardage). His market value is likely to be limited because he’s been cut a few times and many teams are wary of signing Colts as the memories of guys like Rick DeMulling and Jason David tend to cause other NFL GMs nightmares.

Dante Hughes
Numbers: 5101/190/4.65c4.56pd in 07
2008 stats: 9 GP/0 GS, 6 TK, 1 AT, 2 PBU, 1-16-0 INT, 12 STT, 2 STA, 2-25 PEN
2008 preseason stats: 5 GP/1 GS, 7 TK, 1 PBU, 1 FF, 1 STT, 1-10 PEN
Status: Signed through 2010, ended season on injured reserve

When the Colts drafted Hughes (then called Daymeion) in the third round of the 2007 draft, they thought they were getting a player a lot like Ratliff — a guy who does everything right, but just lack a little in the deep speed department. But since logic dictates that corners don’t really need all that much deep speed in the Colts defense, Hughes should be fine. Right?

So far, wrong. Injuries and ineffective play have kept Hughes off the field. When he has played, he hasn’t done much and has sometimes looked totally lost in coverage. While many fans expected him to dislodge Jennings from the No. 3 spot, Hughes never came close and actually lost the No. 4 spot to Ratliff midway through the 2008 preseason.

Still, it’s too early to give up on Hughes. Cornerback is one of the tougher positions to adjust to in the pros, so the jury’s still out on this kid. He was a big-time producer at Cal, so there’s a good chance the light could turn on sometime soon. But if it doesn’t this year, I think it’s over.

Michael Coe
Numbers: 6005/190/4.53c4.49pd in 07
2008 stats: None
2008 preseason stats: None
Status: Signed through 2010, spent season on injured reserve

This guy’s still around? He played six games as a rookie in 2007 and blocked a punt against the Ravens. Since then, he hasn’t really gotten out of the whirlpool.

If he comes back, he’ll have to work for a spot. The scouting report on him thus far is that he’s a smart kid (a coach’s son who got a degree despite transferring from Arkansas to Alabama State) who lacks deep speed and, far worse, closing speed. He’ll work hard and play aggressively, but really hasn’t shown he can withstand the punishment an NFL player must.

I actually do remember him from 2007. He impressed me far more as a special-teamer than he did as a defender. He’ll need to get tighter in coverage to earn a spot as a cornerback.

T.J. Rushing
Numbers: 5090/186/4.45pd in 06
2008 stats: None
2008 preseason stats: 4 GP/0 GS, 4 TK, 1 PBU, 2 STT, 2-26 (1 FC) PR, 3-104-0 KR
Status: Signed through 2009, spent season on injured reserve

Let’s get one thing straight, Rushing isn’t really an NFL cornerback. I mean he’s played cornerback when injuries have forced him to (and in the preseason) and the more I’ve seen him play on defense, the more I don’t want him to. If he’s playing back there, the Colts are desperate.

What he actually is is a return man. At that position, he excels, despite the Colts’ lack of blocking for him. He’s got straight-line speed, more than a little niftiness and generally sure hands. It’s hard to judge exactly how good he is because of how bad the Colts special teams have been, but he should enter camp as the No. 1 option on both punts and kicks.

He’s also a pretty fair special-teams tackler, so if he’s healthy, he should be tough to dislodge from the roster.

Nick Graham
Numbers: 5101/190/4.55pd in 07
2008 stats: 4 GP/0 GS, 4 STT, 1 STA, 4-40 PEN
2008 preseason stats: 3 GP/0 GS, 3 TK, 1 AT with Philadelphia
Status: Signed (I think) through 2009, ended season on injured reserve

When the Colts signed Graham last season, I recalled him from Tulsa. Played faster than he timed, a bit of a hitter, but was no great shakes in coverage. I considered him not really worth drafting. As an undrafted rookie with the Eagles in 2007, he was a solid special-teams contributor, but did little on defense. Part of that may be because the Eagles play almost exclusively man coverage, while Graham is better in zone (which the Colts play almost exclusively).

Keep an eye on Graham. The Colts need special teamers, and Graham has proven he can do that and has shown some potential as a defender. The Colts put Graham on injured reserve last season rather than come to a waiver agreement with him, so they expect him back for camp. Still, it’s hard to see how a guy who had as many penalties as he did tackles in his first season in Indy would have much of a future.

Brandon Foster
Numbers: 5075/185/4.28pd in 08
2008 stats: None
2008 preseason stats: 5 GP/0 GS, 4 TK, 1 PBU, 1-18 PEN
Status: Signed through 2010

Somehow, Foster is actually smaller than Jennings. And even more unbelievably, he’s even faster. But he’s not as strong, not quite the hitter and nowhere near as aggressive. The flipside of that is that he’s smarter, more disciplined and far less prone to mistakes. He played a bit in the preseason as a rook, and didn’t get totally abused. He showed good instincts, but not much tackling ability.

He did make one great play, downing a punt at Atlanta 4-yard line, showing off his crazy speed. So he could be a special teams guy. There’s little doubt he’ll be the first guy down there if he’s not blocked out of existence, but what can he do once he gets there?

The one thing that gets me about Foster is that he has never been used as a return man. Last season, after Rushing went down, the Colts paraded all kinds of guys back there including scrapheap pickup Justin Forsett and slow-as-dirt Ratliff, but didn’t give lightning-fast Foster a shot. Neither did the Longhorns when he played in Austin (unless you count the one onside kick he recovered). But as a senior at Texas, he had four picks for 115 yards and two scores to go along with two fumble recoveries for 25 yards and another touchdown. Obviously, the kid can run — why not give him a shot?

How this affects the draft and free agency

There is talent and depth at the position, but of the Colts’ top four cornerbacks, two are due to be unrestricted free agents this year, and the other two will be after the 2009 season. Behind them are question marks and unknowns.

But keep in mind that Polian has shown a history of paying, even overpaying cornerbacks. It’s likely that the Colts will retain most if not all of them. Part of the reason that they will be so aggressive in keeping them is the fact that they don’t have many other options. Hughes played himself out of the defensive rotation, and Coe just can’t stay healthy enough to show that he deserves a roster spot. Rushing’s a cornerback in name only, while Graham hasn’t proven anything and Foster’s probably too small to be a contributor on defense.

No matter how many of the top four (if any) leave, don’t expect to see the Colts sign a name free agent. While Polian has signed free agent cornerbacks to big contracts in the past, it should be noted that both of them happened when he was new to the Colts and both of the players — Jeff Burris and Tyrone Poole — were guys he had drafted in the first round when he was in charge of other teams. That window has since closed.

Far more likely, they will get potential contributors through the draft. But that’s kind of risky. Not only haven’t Hughes or Coe worked out as planned, neither have most of the guys Polian has brought to Indy.

There is a chance the Colts will draft a cornerback on the first day. If you look at the players who are current successful in Indy, you’ll notice that Jackson was a first-round pick, while Hayden, Jennings and Ratliff were second rounders (although Ratliff was chosen by Cincinnati). All of the guys who haven’t worked out have been drafted in the third round or later.

While it may make sense for the Colts to grab a cornerback early, I don’t think they will. Here’s why:

1) This draft will be dedicated primarily to the offense
2) I expect at least three of the top four cornerbacks will be back at least for one season
3) If top cornerbacks are so important, why did the Colts go 3-4 with Jackson in the lineup and 9-0 without him?
4) Polian is loathe to change his philosophy, and is likely to keep drafting lots of cornerbacks, hoping to strike it rich with some late-rounder

As far as who they’ll draft, your guess is as good as mine. Will it be a big guy like Jackson or a shrimp like Jennings? A speedster or a slug? A ballhawk or a tackler with hands of stone? A clean Marine or a character problem? A Big-10 star or a D2 phenom? Could be any of them, because if you look at the list of Polian draftees below, you’ll see it has been all of them.

I know some people have been talking up Jackson State’s Domonique Johnson, but I’m wary. He has prototypical NFL cornerback skills, and some believe his small-college background and character issues will drive his draft stock down. But I’m pretty sure that NFL teams will forget both of those things when they see him work out and he’ll go on the first day. Some guys I like include San Jose State’s Coye Francies (who can also return kicks), Troy’s Sherrod Martin and my current favorite, Maryland’s Kevin Barnes.

Cornerbacks drafted by the Colts since Polian took over

2007 Third round Daymeion (now Dante) Hughes
2007 Fifth round Michael Coe
2006 Second round Tim Jennings
2006 Seventh round T.J. Rushing
2005 First round Marlin Jackson
2005 Second round Kelvin Hayden
2004 Fourth round Jason David
2004 Sixth round Von Hutchins
2003 Third round Donald Strickland
2002 Third round Joseph Jefferson
2001 Fifth round Raymond Walls
2000 Third round David Macklin
2000 Seventh round Rodregis Brooks
1999 Fourth round Paul Miranda