Monday, May 24, 2010

New guys, other stuff

The Colts signed three more players, here's a look:

Jordan Sisco WR Regina
Numbers: 5115/212, 1.56 ten, 2.59 twenty, 4.50 forty, 8 reps, 34-inch vertical, 9-7 broad jump, 4.38 shuttle, 9-inch hands, 29 7/8-inch arms*
2009 stats: 52-700-2 recieving, 25-74-0 rushing, 1-0-0-0-0 passing, 1-0-0 punt returns

Who he is: Another raw Canadian receiving prospect, so his best shot would appear to be the practice squad. Hope’s nowhere near the athlete Sam Giguere is, but appears to be a smoother receiver with good football intelligence. Unfortunately, he has no return experience.

Pete Ittersagen CB Wheaton
Numbers: 5102/189, 4.47 forty, 18 reps, 37-inch vertical, 9’10 broad jump, 6.60 three-cone, 4.32 shuttle*
2008 stats: 49 tackles, 15 assists, 3.5 TFL, 1.0 sack, 3-77-1 interceptions, 12 PBU, 1 forced fumble, 20-528-1 kick returns, 25-464-2 punt returns
Who he is: A D3 standout at corner who was an incredibly effective punt returner (65-1,075-5). Signed by the Jaguars out of Wheaton, he was a final cut. He’s a long shot for any CB work, but has to be considered a contender for the return specialist job because of his outstanding stop-start run skills. If it doesn’t work out, he already has a contract to play with the CFL’s Toronto Argonauts.

Marlon Favorite DT LSU
Numbers: 6007/317, 1.74 ten, 2.66 twenty, 5.09 forty, 26 reps, 18.5-inch vertical, 7’0 broad jump, 5.27 shuttle, 8.02 three-cone*
2008 stats: 9 tackles, 19 assists, 3.5-14 TFL, 2.0-13 sacks, 2 PBU
Who he is: The Bills cut Favorite to make room for former Colts halfback Chad Simspon, so I like to think of it as a trade. Favorite is a hard-working guy with a great first step, but he appears to be lacking functional strength and pass-rushing technique. Because of his gifts, he has been signed by the Panthers, Rams, Chiefs, Seahawks, Saints and Bills in less than a calendar year. And because of his liabilities, he has been cut by all of them. Favorite is a good guy who graduated early and is a talented singer (performing under the name “Big Fav”), so I’m rooting for him. But until I see something new, he looks like a rotational injury replacement type to me.

*all numbers except Favorite’s reps are from Pro Days, not the Combine

In other news:

• It looks very much like third-round pick Kevin Thomas will miss his rookie season, and potentially even more. It’s a hard break for the kid, and it puts the team in a bind, too. Although the next man down on the depth chart would appear to be Terrail Lambert or draftee Ray Fisher, Thomas spot as No. 4 corner will more likely be taken by whichever of the corps of unknowns – Brandon King, Thad Turner, Jordan Hemby or Ittersagen. Lambert just isn’t a natural coverage guy, and I think Fisher is just too small and inexperienced at the position. This is a vital spot. Consider that the Titans’ No. 4 receiver is dynamic rookie Damian Williams, the Texans’ is wily David Anderson, the Jaguars’ is rapidly improving Jarrett Dillard and there are far more frightening options at that spot on the teams the Colts will meet in the playoffs.
• While I think it’s significant that Brandon James was given a receiver’s number (12) instead of a halfback’s, I don’t think it is that Trevor Anderson was given a linebacker’s (56), not an end’s. I also think James (Brandon, not Javarris) will be one of the most interesting players to watch in camp and the preseason.

Thursday, May 6, 2010

Cuts

The Colts cut tight end Jamie Petrowski and defensive end Rudolph Hardie. Both were considered legitimate prospects, but were made redundat by the Colts' draft and free agent signees. Best of luck to both.

Monday, May 3, 2010

Roy Hall cut

Well, at least that's one fewer candidates for the fifth receiver job. Sorry it didn't work out, Roy.

Friday, April 30, 2010

Add Three More

Here are some more undrafted free agents on the roster:

Trevor Anderson DE Michigan State
Numbers: 5115/241 4.67 forty, 17 reps, 37-inch vertical, 10’7 broad jump, 4.44 shuttle, 6.92 three cone
2009 stats: 12 tackles, 33 assists, 7.5-32 TFL, 4.0-21 sacks
Extremely undersized pass-rush end with determination, surprising leg drive and a nonstop motor; needs to work on technique to have even a faint shot

Jordan Hemby CB North Carolina
Numbers: 5107/190 1.52 ten, 2.53 twenty, 4.48 forty, 19 reps, 36-inch vertical, 9’11 broad jump
2009 stats: 9 tackles, 3 assists
Former walk-on had much of his college career hampered by injuries, but exploded to be the Tar Heels’ best DB as a junior in 2008, but again succumbed to injuries in 2009; hard-hitter will have to make his mark on specials

Gregg Peat G Oregon State
Numbers: 6035/299 1.73 ten, 2.96 twenty, 5.26 forty, 23 reps, 32.5-inch vertical, 8’6 broad jump, 4.86 shuttle, 7.53 three cone
2009 stats: 13 starts
Undersized and somewhat stiff inside prospect gets by on grit, determination, toughness and intelligence; landed with the right team

Thursday, April 29, 2010

Depth Chart

I've cobbled together a crude version of a depth chart (keep in mind it's how I think they'll enter mini-camp, not how they'll come out of it):

QB
18 Manning, Peyton
07 Painter, Curtis
16 Willy, Drew
00 Hiller, Tim
RB
29 Addai, Joseph
31 Brown, Donald
32 Hart, Mike
45 Moore, Devin
00 James, Javarris
00 James Brandon
WR
87 Wayne, Reggie
11 Gonzalez, Anthony
17 Collie, Austin
85 Garcon, Pierre
12 Hall, Roy
83 Matthews, John
10 Smith, Taj
14 Giguere, Sam
13 Guice, Dudley
00 White, Blair
TE
44 Clark, Dallas
47 Robinson, Gijon
81 Eldridge, Brody
86 Santi, Tom
84 Tamme, Jacob
46 Cloherty, Colin
80 Petrowski, Jamie
T
71 Diem, Ryan
74 Johnson, Charlie
79 Terry, Adam
67 Ugoh, Tony
76 Cadogan, Gerald
00 Linkenbach, Jeff
00 Tyshovnytsky, Andrew
G
66 DeVan, Kyle
62 Alleman, Andy
78 Pollak, Mike
65 McClendon, Jacques
73 Thomas, Jaimie
C
63 Saturday, Jeff
61 Richard, Jamey
DE
93 Freeney, Dwight
98 Mathis, Robert
92 Hughes, Jerry
96 Dawson, Keyunta
91 Mathews, Ricardo
94 Baldwin, Ervin
60 Hardie, Rudolph
72 Skolnitsky, J.D.
97 Chick, John
DT
99 Johnson, Antonio
90 Muir, Daniel
68 Foster, Eric
95 Moala, Fili
69 Gill, John
75 King, Mitch
OLB
55 Session, Clint
50 Wheeler, Philip
51 Angerer, Pat
53 Conner, Kavell
52 Glenn, Cody
57 Renkart, Brandon
ILB
58 Brackett, Gary
59 Humber, Ramon
00 Tuihalamaka, Vuna
CB
26 Hayden, Kelvin
25 Powers, Jerraud
27 Lacey, Jacob
20 Thomas, Kevin
34 Lambert, Terrail
28 Fisher, Ray
00 Turner, Thad
00 King, Brandon
S
21 Sanders, Bob
41 Bethea, Antoine
33 Bullitt, Melvin
40 Silva, Jamie
00 Newton, Mike
00 Caldwell, David
00 McClesky, Donye
K
04 Vinatieri, Adam
00 Swenson, Brett
P
01 McAfee, Pat
LS
48 Snow, Justin

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

One more free agent to add

Donye McClesky SS Indiana State
Numbers: 5110/209 1.63 ten, 2.43 twenty, 4.43 forty, 18 reps, 36-inch vertical, 9'10 broad jump, 4.53 shuttle, 7.36 three cone
2009 stats: 46 tackles, 46 assists, 3.0-19 TFL, 1-12 sacks, 2-2-0 intercptions, 1 PBU

Powerful but straight-linish safety prospect who'll get a try on specials

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Post-draft Comments

While the net is abuzz with the Colts’ so-called failure to grab a top left tackle prospect in the draft, I’m actually in agreement with those Colts fans and commentators who point out that there were no great prospects available when they picked and were better off going with what they had.

I have a persistent thought that tells me they would prefer to open the season with free-agent acquisition Adam Terry at left tackle unless reluctant dragon Tony Ugoh can reclaim the spot with conviction. If either of those scenarios were to happen, it would allow Charlie Johnson to move inside and reclaim his natural left guard spot, and still allow him to kick back outside should Terry get injured again and/or Ugoh fail again.

Don’t laugh at the Terry scenario. On those occasions he started for the Ravens, he was more than competent. When it comes to overall talent, he is by far the Colts’ best option at the position, but he has to show that he can stay healthy.

If Charlie Johnson is inside, it solidifies one guard spot, which is crucial. Then the options at right guard would include incumbent Kyle DeVan, former starter Mike Pollak, free-agent signee Andy Alleman, rookie Jacques McLendon and holdovers Jaimie Thomas and Jamey Richard. It’s a lot easier to see one starter arise from that group than two.

If I had to look into my crystal ball, I’d say the opening day starters from left to right will be Terry-Johnson-Saturday-DeVan-Diem; they cut Pollak, Thomas and Ugoh, keep Alleman, McClendon and Richard as inside reserves and one of the rookie tackles Jeff Linkenbach or Andrew Tyshovnytsky outside, although Johnson would actually be the top reserve at both tackle positions with Alleman filling in at left guard if necessary.

***

Lots of people are drinking the Polian Kool-Aid when it comes to Pat Angerer being strictly Gary Brackett’s backup and heir apparent and not a challenger to Phillip Wheeler’s strongside position. Here are a few points to keep in mind:

• Brackett just signed a five-year contract
• Brackett is not old for the position, and is playing at a high level
• Wheeler twice lost his starting spot last year to since-departed Tyjuan Hagler, and was clearly the weakest link in the Colts’ LB corps last season
• Angerer is as NFL-ready as he’ll ever be and has limited upside
• Angerer’s best spot in the Larry Coyer defense is probably the strongside
• As a fifth-year senior last year, Angerer is not a young prospect
• Fili Moala notwithstanding, Polian doesn’t draft guys in the second round expecting them to sit
• Polian lies

***

I already said I liked the Jerry Hughes pick and I still do very much. Remember when the Giants went to the Super Bowl with a four-man, all end rushline they used on third downs? I could see the Colts starting Mathis-Mookie-Muir-Freeney, then going Mathis-Foster-Freeney-Hughes on third down. I’ve seen Freeney slide inside a few times in preseason, but not often in the regular season. Could be scary.

***

As interesting as all the other positional battles will be, they pale next to the return specialist. I’ve said this before, that returning kicks and returning punts are two very different tasks that are best suited to different kinds of players (look at it this way, Eric Dickerson would be my perfect idea of a kick returner, while Barry Sanders would be the prototype punt returner). But, alas, the Colts don’t usually think that way and would rather have one guy (make that one roster spot) handle both jobs. Fine, let’s look at the primary candidates' college stats:

Ray Fisher 18-650-2 (36.11) KR/6-59-0 (9.83) PR
Brandon James 112-2,718-1 (24.27) KR/117-1,371-4 (11.72) PR
Devin Moore 61-1,246-1 (20.43) KR/0-0-0 (--) PR

Personally, I like James for the job and I also like his (almost) Percy Harvin-like abilities on offense. Fisher’s KR average is gaudy, but remember, all but one of his returns came in one year. He has some ability as a tackler, but it’s more likely they would come in handy on special teams than on defense. It’d be great if they could keep both Fisher for kicks and James for punts, but I think the final decision will come down to who holds onto the ball best in camp and preseason.

***

Speaking of precious, precious roster spots, it looks like Drew Willy and Tim Hiller will fight for the No. 3 quarterback spot, but it may be moot as the Colts look like they’ll keep just two quarterbacks.

Monday, April 26, 2010

The Undrafteds

Here’s ColtPlay’s look at the first set of undrafted free agents, I’m sure there’ll be more to come:
Javarris James HB Miami
Numbers: 6002/214/4.59, 4.24 shuttle, 7.07 3-cone, 36-inch vertical, 32-inch arms, 9 5/8-inch hands
2009 stats: 103-409-6 rushing, 13-85-0 receiving
Yeah, Edgerrin’s little cousin. Makes coaches’ hearts break because he does everything well and is a hard worker and a good kid who appears to lack the athleticism to be special.

Brandon James HB Florida
Numbers: 5072/186 14 reps
2009 stats: 20-109-0 rushing, 24-215-1 receiving, 33-244-0 punt returning, 29-756-1 kick returning
Too small and fragile to be a real halfback, this James has a legitimate shot at being a return specialist and occasional offensive contributor on offense if he can show some toughness, durability and the ability to keep his ego in check

Blair White WR Michigan State
Numbers: 6022/209 1.50 ten, 2.60 twenty, 4.49 forty, 18 reps, 33.5-inch vertical, 6.69 3 cone, 4.03 shuttle
2009 stats: 70-990-9 receiving, 1-27-0 punt returning
I’m actually surprised this guy wasn’t drafted. He won’t set the world on fire, but can run routes, catch the ball, has some shiftiness and will play on special teams. This guy could surprise.

Tim Hiller QB Western Michigan
Numbers: 6040/229 1.65 ten, 2.78 twenty, 4.97 forty, 18 reps, 32.5-inch vertical, 9’10” broad jump, 4.54 shuttle, 7.10 three cone
2009 stats: 514-319-3,249-23-13 passing, 39-(-101)-0 rushing, 0-(-5)-0 receiving
From the waist up, he’s a perfect quarterback, but below that he reminds me of the old Kids in the Hall character M. Piedlourd (Mr. Heavyfoot), Hiller can’t sense the rush and doesn’t have the feet to do anything about it if he did, he could be effective as an NFL No. 3 if he has limited exposure

David Caldwell SS William & Mary
Numbers: 5104/212 1.52 ten, 2.60 twenty, 4.58 forty, 24 reps, 39.5-inch vertical, 10’10” broad jump, 4.07 shuttle, 6.69 three cone
2009 stats: 41 tackles, 17 assists, 2.0-13 TFL, 1.0-12 sacks, 3 PBU, 1-0-0 fumble recovery, 1 forced fumble, 2-29-0 kick returning
Outstanding athlete was very productive at small school, a former halfback, he also played corner and was William & Mary’s primary kick returner before concentrating on safety as a senior, smart, hard-working kid could make it on specials

Mike Newton FS Buffalo
Numbers: 5101/197 1.50pd ten, 2.55pd twenty, 4.48pd forty, 9 reps, 10’0 broad jump, 4.09 shuttle, 6.94 3 cone
2009 stats: 52 tackles, 33 assists, 1.0-22 TFL, 2-30-0 interceptions, 8 PBU, 1-24-0 fumble recovery, 1 forced fumble
Had this guy on one of my mocks; gifted, hard-hitting safety who needs to learn more about coverage and play diagnosis before he can contribute on defense in the NFL

Thad Turner CB Ohio
Numbers: 5103/188 1.56 ten, 2.62 twenty, 4.51 forty, 14 reps, 41-inch vertical, 10’3” broad jump, 4.26 shuttle, 7.20 three cone
2009 stats: 34 tackles, 26 assists, 0.5-2 TFL, 1-4-0 interceptions, 6 PBU
Aggressive, hard-hitting corner isn’t the most fluid guy around but excels in the short-area press and could succeed on specials

Jeff Linkenbach T Cincinnati
Numbers: 6062/312 5.10 forty, 22 reps, 27.5-inch vertical, 8’2” broad jump, 7.69 three cone
2009 stats: 14 starts
Here’s another guy I had on a mock or two; experienced, effective starter who doesn’t have natural feet or bull strength, but managed to stonewalls lots of big-name pass rushers in college. And when you consider how immobile Tony Pike was and how high-powered their offense was, that’s quite a feat. Personally, I have no idea how Linkenbach went undrafted – with coaching and conditioning he has an outside chance to become an NFL starter

Brett Swenson K Michigan State
Numbers: 5076/180
2009 stats: 19-22 on field goals, 44-45 on extra points, 66-4,087-7 on kickoffs
He was actually the top kicker on my list for the Colts. He won’t help you on kickoffs or placements over 50 yards, but the Colts have McAfee for that. Deadly accurate and with a rare level of concentration under pressure, Swenson is a rare talent.

Vuna Tuihalamaka LB Arizona
Numbers: 6011/230 1.61 ten, 2.74 twenty, 4.70 forty, 18 reps, 33.5-inch vertical, 9’4 broad jump, 4.64 shuttle, 7.25 three cone
2009 stats: 45 tackles, 27 assists, 5.5-19 TFL, 1-0-0 interceptions, 3 PBU
The Colts bring in a guy like this every year: An undersized tackling machine who could be the next Gary Brackett or could be the next Mike Tuailiili.

A couple of late adds:

Brandon King CB Purdue
Numbers: 5096/195 1.59 ten, 2.62 twenty, 4.59 forty, 23 reps, 9'11 broad jump, 4.28 shuttle, 6.87 three cone
2009 stats: 25 tackles, 5 assists, 2.0-14 TFL, 3-25-0 interceptions, 5 PBU, 1-0-0 fumble recovery, 1 forced fumble
Stout corner has great skills, but lacks height and long speed; could work better at free safety.

Andrew Tyshovnytsky T Fordham
Numbers: 6041/317 1.68 ten, 2.81 twenty, 4.91 forty, 33 reps, 28-inch vertical, 9'2 broad jump, 4.83 shuttle, 7.99 three cone
2009 stats: 11 starts
Exceptionally athletic tackle prospect who protected John Skelton's blindside; will need extensive coaching, but has a shot

Sunday, April 25, 2010

Day Three

The fourth round also gave the Colts a player at a position many expected, but the name was not a familiar one. It should be noted that the Detroit Lions traded in front of the Colts to draft Miami’s Jason Fox, a left tackle prospect many Colts fans liked. So no matter what guard Jacques McClendon does in his career, it will always be measured against Fox’s. Here are the numbers:

6026/324
4.96pd forty
37 reps

Good: Started 26 games for elite program ... A massively strong man with decent athleticism ... first step has major pop ... hard worker ... has football intelligence and is very alert ... once benched 645 pounds, a team record ... Academic All-SEC twice despite majoring in economics ... former defensive lineman, also played basketball and shot put

Bad: Needs to work on pass-blocking especially ability to mirror and slide ... foot quickness is not great ... is not great at pulling or blocking downfield ... can fall out of shape

Overall: McClendon is a powerhouse whose success in the NFL will be determined by two things: a) his ability to improve his footwork in pass pro, and b) his commitment to keeping his weight down. There is significant potential for him to be a bust, but he worked hard in school academically and on the field, so he has a good chance of making it.

How he fits: Right now, the Colts have a muddied situation at guard, but McClendon will start at the bottom and have to sit and learn and earn the coaches trust before he sees any playing time.

Reminds me of: Keydrick Vincent

By the fifth round, Colts fan had given up on their quest for a left tackle and were looking elsewhere. But few could have predicted the Colts would have selected Brody Eldridge, a guy who played mostly tight end, but also at H-back, center, guard and fullback for the Sooners. Here are the numbers:

6046/261
4.75c/4.70pd forty
9’4”pd broad jump
26 reps
32.5-inch arms
9 5/8-inch hands

Good: Very strong, especially in his hands and arms ... stays low ... can destroy smaller players both inline and on the move ... great balance ... finishes his blocks ... fearless ... plays hard with a good motor ... leadership ability ... versatile, quick learner

Bad: Poor hands ... average straight-line speed for a tight end with little explosion ... not agile ... can overextend as a blocker ... not the best first step ... not all that durable

Overall: Eldridge is one of the best blocking tight ends to come around in years, and can also play full back or any of the middle three offensive line positions and could develop into a starter at any of the five positions, especially if he adds weight)

How he fits: Some have opined that the Colts will convert Eldridge to an offensive lineman, but they gave him a jersey with 81 on it, so they think he’s a tight end, at least for now. The Colts lay with two tight ends about 35 percent of the time, but aside from star Dallas Clark, they have gotten precious little production from any of them. Eldridge will never be a star receiver (or even an adequate one), but can help the offense as a blocker from a variety of positions, especially in motion. I would not at all be surprised if he plays a significant role as a rookie.

Reminds me of: Brandon Manumaleuna

To kick off the three seventh round picks, the Colts selected Cincinnati’s Ricardo Mathews, an undersized defensive tackle who the Colts project at end. Here are the numbers:

6025/294
1.69pd ten
2.85pd twenty
4.95pd forty
4.51pd shuttle
7.30 three-cone
31.5pd-inch vertical
9’6”pd broad jump
26 reps

Good: Very athletic for a defensive lineman, fluid and agile ... Good technique as a run stopper ... Quick first step ... nice lateral mobility ... productive senior season with 12.5 TFL and 3.5 sacks ... strong for his size, likes the rough stuff in the trenches ... penetrates, likes to cause problems for blockers ... seems like a good, hard working kid ... played better in big games ... smart

Bad: Very small for defensive tackle, very short for defensive end ... did very little of note until senior season ... can be handled by one man ... needs pass-rush moves

Overall: Looking more like a 3-4 end than anything else, Mathews could make it in the NFL as a situational player if he works hard to prove his senior season wasn’t just a case of being in the right place at the right time.

How he fits: While Hughes is being groomed to take over for Freeney or Mathis, Mathews will be given an opportunity to play the Raheem Brock role – a competent backup both inside and out and a situations run stopping end.

Reminds me of: Mike DeVito

Later in the seventh, the Colts picked a guys lots of people described as a Colts-type player, Clemson OLB Kavell Conner. Here are the numbers:

6004/242
1.55c ten
2.59c twenty
4.59c forty
4.60c shuttle
7.36c three-cone
33.5c-inch vertical
9’2”c broad jump
24 reps
32 ¾-inch arms
9 1/2-inch hands

Good: Very productive at big-time program ... strong tackler ... big hitter ... great range, can tackle sideline to sideline ... tough ... self-made player through hard work and determination ... very durable ... has blitzer potential ... very smart ... definite leadership potential

Bad: Short ... can be blocked out of a play, not a natural shedder ... not overly instinctive ... can take bad angles ... not fluid in man coverage, not quick in his drops in zone

Overall: Conner has lots of tools, but his lack of instincts and coverage will limit him as a pro. In all likelihood, he will be a career backup and special-teams contributor

How he fits: The Colts love guys like Conner and his attitude will take him a long way, but I don’t ever see him as a starter

Reminds me of: Vinny Ciurciu

The last pick was Indiana defensive back Ray Fisher, who may be the answer to the Colts return-specialist woes. Here are the numbers:

5082/171
4.32pd forty
38-inch vertical
10’2 broad jump

Good: Exceptional athlete ... blazing speed ... former WR with great hands, good ball tracking skills ... very fluid and agile ... very productive returner in college ... instinctive runner ... has played basketball and track

Bad: Tiny ... has had just one year’s experience on defense ... can get caught up in traffic ... easy to bring down ... may not be durable

Overall: Fisher is unlikely to make any impact in the NFL as a defensive back, but could be an exceptional return man and perhaps gunner

How he fits: The Colts will give him every opportunity to be their primary return specialist

Reminds me of: Eric Weems

Tomorrow, the undrafteds

Saturday, April 24, 2010

Colts take LB Angerer, CB Thomas

Iowa’s Pat Angerer was a bit of a surprise as the Colts’ second-round pick. Here are the numbers:

6002/235
1.63c/1.58pd ten
2.70c/2.72pd twenty
4.71c/4.64pd forty
4.29c/4.23pd shuttle
7.04 three-cone
35c/39pd-inch vertical
9’2”c/9’3”pd broad jump
26 reps
30.5-inch arms
9 1/8-inch hands

Good: Run-through-a-wall dedication ... reads and diagnoses plays quickly, won’t be fooled ... not straight-line fast, but football fast, pursues sideline-to-sideline and closes quickly ... quick into zone drops and able to locate ball and receiver quickly ... will be a demon on special teams ... fights his way through blocks ... wasn’t ask to blitz often, but can; is too much for most halfbacks to handle

Bad: Not an explosive tackler ... gets absorbed in junk ... not durable ... on the ground too often ... not agile or fluid in coverage

Overall: Angerer is like a miniaturized version of the prototype linebacker. He does everything right, but is limited by his size. He’ll need to be protected by a four-man front, or he may never be better than a nickel ’backer and special teams captain

How he fits: Angerer wouldn’t make it on most teams, but is in the right place in Indy. Although likely the heir apparent in the middle, he’s most likely to begin as a swing backup and could perhaps supplant Phillip Wheeler, who has not really established himself on the strong side. The Colts do not expect second-round picks to sit for long.

Reminds me of: Rocky McIntosh

Lots of mocks – including ColtPlay’s – had the Colts getting a corner in the third round, but I don’t think any thought it would be Kevin Thomas. Here are the numbers:

6000/192
1.52c/1.52pd ten
2.50c/2.52pd twenty
4.41c/4.45pd forty
4.18 shuttle
6.82 three-cone
34.5c/32.5pd-inch vertical
10’6” broad jump
19 reps

Good: Tall and fast ... great first step ... excellent at play diagnosis, and willing to support ... very fluid in zone coverage, almost as good in man ... very good at tracking the ball in the air ... keeps his body between the ball and the man ... uses long arms very well ... decent hands ... has cornerback mentality

Bad: Injury-prone ... not strong in press coverage ... not a strong tackler ... still a bit raw ... not great in recovery

Overall: Thomas is a rare athlete who is just beginning to unlock the football player within. If he’s over his injuries, he could have long-term starting potential.

How he fits: Begins the season as the No. 4 corner behind Kelvin Hayden, Jerraud Powers and Jacob Lacy and will have to fight his way up.

Reminds me of: A taller Jabari Greer

Still need a return man and a prospect at left tackle.

Friday, April 23, 2010

Welcome to Coltland, Mr. Hughes

I like the Jerry Hughes pick a lot and not just because it makes me one-for-one on my mock.

Here are the numbers:

6016/255
1.63 ten
2.63 twenty
4.69 forty
4.15 shuttle
6.99 three-cone
34.5-inch vertical
9’10” broad jump
26 reps
33-inch arms, 9 3/4-inch hands

Good: Awesome motor ... natural pass-rusher ... explosive first step ... very productive (15 sacks in ’08 and 11.5 in ’09) at big-time program ... stays low and is better at holding his ground than he gets credit for ... takes good angles ... agile (a former halfback) ... will help on special teams ... well liked and respected ... on track to get his degree ... very good in pursuit ... effective tackler ... has coverage experience and good hands (three career picks at TCU) ... leadership ability ... extremely durable

Bad: Smaller than you’d like at end, even for the Colts, and won’t get much bigger without losing what makes him special ... trusts his outside spin too much and takes himself out of some plays ... can be tricked by play action and, especially, draws ... can be blindsided ... needs to vary his moves ... not a natural in coverage ... needs to use his hands better when it comes to shedding

Overall: Aside from size, all of his faults could be well improved with coaching and experience. Keep in mind he was a halfback just four years ago. And what he brings to the table can’t be taught. He’ll need the right environment, but has sky-high potential.

How he fits: He has enough skill to walk in and contribute as a pass-rusher right away, but will learn to be a more complete end under the tutelage of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.

Reminds me of: Trent Cole

Who did I have for tonight? Oh yeah, Veldheer and Verner. That would be nice.

Stay tuned.

About last night ...

Sorry about abandoning the live feed. Dinner was just too awesome. If you really care about my opinion, here’s what I think of the first round.

1 St. Louis Rams Sam Bradford QB Oklahoma
Really their only choice. They had no QB, there were none on the trade or free agent horizons, Tebow’s a project and Clausen’s a jerk

2 Detroit Lions Ndamukong Suh DT Nebraska
He’s a hair lighter than I prefer, but has extraordinary potential

3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Gerald McCoy DT Oklahoma
Almost as good as Suh, fills a need

4 Washington Redskins Trent Williams T Oklahoma
Another pick for an obvious need, but I’m not sure he’s better than Okung

5 Kansas City Chiefs Eric Berry S Tennessee
Interesting. There is no doubt Berry is a good player and the Chiefs’ safeties are subpar, but I thought they had other, more pressing needs

6 Seattle Seahawks Russell Okung T Oklahoma State
Looks like he walks in and starts for a decade

7 Cleveland Browns Joe Haden CB Florida
Haden’s NFL readiness could move newly acquired Sheldon Brown to free safety making both positions better, or they could get Taylor Mays and have three starting-quality corners and a safety

8 Oakland Raiders Rolando McClain ILB Alabama
They always surprise me; but he's a very good player apparently will help them transition to 3-4

9 Buffalo Bills C.J. Spiller HB Clemson
Don’t get me wrong, I like Spiller, but who’s the QB? The LT? The “other” WR? The TE? They already have two 1,000-yard rushers on their roster, so why add him? I feel sorry for him

10 Jacksonville Jaguars Tyson Alualu DT California
Fail

11 San Francisco 49ers (from Chicago via Denver) Anthony Davis T Rutgers
Nice; with Martz gone and some real protection, now Alex Smith will develop

12 San Diego Chargers (from Miami) Ryan Mathews HB Fresno State
They needed a back, but is he the guy? And did trading up hinder their ability to get the NT they need even more?

13 Philadelphia Eagles (from San Francisco via Denver) Brandon Graham DE Michigan
Good pick, they really needed him

14 Seattle Seahawks (from Denver) Earl Thomas S Texas
Bad secondary gets better, wonder how Taylor Mays feels about his old coach grabbing Thomas

15 New York Giants Jason Pierre-Paul DE South Florida
They live and die by the rush, and rolled the dice on this talented underachiever

16 Tennessee Titans Derrick Morgan DE Georgia Tech
Need pick, looks to have the stuff

17 San Francisco 49ers (from Carolina) Mike Iupati G Idaho
Wow, Smith and Frank Gore must be delighted

18 Pittsburgh Steelers Maurkice Pouncey C Florida
Did what they had to do

19 Atlanta Falcons Sean Weatherspoon OLB Missouri
Nice addition to rapidly improving defense

20 Houston Texans Kareem Jackson CB Alabama
You knew they’d get a CB or a HB here, and they can get a quality big back tonight

21 Cincinnati Bengals Jermaine Gresham TE Oklahoma
I really thought Dez had found a home in the Midwest for a moment, but this actually makes more sense

22 Denver Broncos (from New England) Demaryius Thomas WR Georgia Tech
I wouldn’t worry about his route-running if they keep the same offense; they needed a big, imposing wideout and he looks the part

23 Green Bay Packers Bryan Bulaga T Iowa
Fell into their laps; will start for a decade at least

24 Dallas Cowboys (from Philadelphia via Denver and New England) Dez Bryant WR Oklahoma State
Ah, controversy thy name is Jerry (and not Langton), should work out though

25 Denver Broncos (from Baltimore) Tim Tebow QB Florida
What’s life without risk? I admire them for this pick; heck, he’s already better than Brady Quinn

26 Arizona Cardinals Dan Williams DT Tennessee
Just like Bulaga: Great player at need position falls to them by sheer luck, like all NTs, though, you have to keep your eyes on his belly

27 New England Patriots (from Dallas) Devin McCourty CB Rutgers
Makes sense for them, he’ll work out fine, starts on specials where they need him

28 Miami Dolphins (from San Diego) Jared Odrick DE Penn State
Not a bad player at all for a 3-4 end, but where will he play with Starks, Langford and Merling all ahead of him at end? And where’s the NT?

29 New York Jets Kyle Wilson CB Boise State
Good player, from North Jersey, helps at nickel or if Antonio Cromartie runs into trouble

30 Detroit Lions (from Minnesota) Jahvid Best HB California
Awesome pick, they are really putting something together there

31 Indianapolis Colts Jerry Hughes DE TCU
More on him later

32 New Orleans Saints Patrick Robinson CB Florida State
Like him, like the pick

Thursday, April 22, 2010

It's here!

So is everyone excited? I'm making porchetta! And it's draft day.

Looks like the NFL spent about $2 million on that ad narrated by Chris Cooper.

I'd be flipped out if No. 1 isn't Bradford. They only have Null, Reilly and Feeley. The only other option is to trade the pick and select Clausen or McCoy. He's smilin'.

Okay, one down. I like Bradford there. He's a tall accurate passer. Didn't play in a pro-style offense and has durability concerns, but he's the guy.

So now my son's beloved Lions are up. Suh makes sense, I like McCoy too. I don't like those OT rumors. Backus is still good enough and the acquisition of OG Sims makes it even less likely.

It's Suh. Looks like the Millen era really is over in Motown.

Bucs. McCoy? Hops so, I'd be three for three.

Taking a break for dinner.

It is Gerald McBoingBoing. Great pick. Great guy.

Now comes the hard one. I'm going with Trent Williams.

My Son and I ...

... both have first-round projections. I tried hard, but I think he'll beat me badly.

Pre-Draft Note

I'm a Tebow fan. Not or the Colts, mind you, but if I were the GM of a bad or middling team, I'd trade down to the bottom half of the first and build my offense around him. He's only spectacular in a college-style offense? Fine, run one.

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Updating the Eric Foster situation

Colts president Bill Polian has decided that since the police are not pressing charges against Foster, the Colts will not discipline him either.

While I hope he's innocent, I don't think people make those kinds of claims even when there is a potential for financial gain very often.

At this point, at least, it doesn't look like he needs replacing. But the situation bears watching.

Dreaming

Things I’d like from the draft, but almost certainly won’t get:

A quarterback with real upside, like Fordham’s John Skelton

A quarterback with excellent athletic ability who can confound defenses from a variety of positions and run the scout team for when the Colts play against a running quarterback or a team that employs the wildcat formation, like Appalachian State’s Armanti Edwards

A big, bruising halfback, like Wayne State’s Joique Bell

A real fullback, like Maryland’s Cory Jackson

A tight end who’s not a pumped-up flanker or converted fullback, like Kansas State’s Jerod Mastrud

A two-gap defensive tackle, like Central Florida’s Torrell Troup

A truly blazing return man, like Lousiana State’s Trindon Holliday

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Foster

Like a lot of Colts fans, I’m really bummed out by the Eric Foster situation.

Keep in mind that this is the team that once cut Ed Johnson for a joint. If indeed this is a truthful accusation, I expect Foster to be an ex-Colt.

Unfortunately, Foster was the Colts’ most effective defensive tackle last year, and would definitely need replacing.

Friday, April 16, 2010

Latest mock

1/31 Jerry Hughes DE TCU
(6016/255/4.65c) 32 TK, 26 AT, 16.5-78 TFL, 11.5-72 SK, 6 PBU, 2 FF, 1-0-0 FR
Why: He's a great pass-rushing prospect and a good kid

2/63 Jared Veldheer T Hillsdale
(6081/312/5.06c)
Why: Just look at him!

3/94 Alterraun Verner CB UCLA
(5101/189/4.52c) 51 TK, 21 AT, 5-7 TFL, 5-158-1 INT, 4 PBU, 1-0-1 FR
Why: Awesome, awesome kid who's a great athlete and a productive corner.

4/129 Chris DeGeare G Wake Forest
(6035/325/5.12c)
Why: Another good guy who brings size and technique

5/162 Deji Karim HB Southern Illinois
(5085/209/4.40pd) 240-1,694-18 RU, 17-212-1 REC, 14-433-1 KR
Strong little back and a legitimate retun specialist.

7/238 Damaso Munoz OLB Rutgers
(5105/221/4.49pd) 36 TK, 45 AT, 8.5-29 TFL, 3-12 SK, 2-35-0 INT, 2 FF, 4-0-0 FR, 1-35-1 KR
Many teams see him as a safety, but I like him as an OLB.

7/240 Mike Caussin TE James Madison
(6052/252/4.77pd) 25-438-4 REC, 5-59-0 KR
You knew I'd have a small-school guy on here, besides he's a great guy.

7/246 Cornelius Brown CB UTEP
(5107/198/4.59c/4.46pd) 31 TK, 10 AT, 2-6 TFL, 16 PBU, 1 FF, 2-49-0 KR
Awesome movement skills and his nickname is "cornbread."

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Update

The big news in Coltland these days is probably the release of Chad Simpson. I was surprised. Say what you will about him as a returner. While his boom-or-bust style didn’t always endear him to fans, at least he caught the ball, and his numbers certainly weren’t bad (47-1,087-1 last season for a 23.13 average, 53-1,242-1 career for 23.43). But I liked him as an extra halfback.

Considering the injury histories of Joseph Addai, Donald Brown and Mike Hart, it makes sense to have a capable fourth halfback. To cut Simpson in favour of Hart mystifies me. Over the last two years, the pair played about the same amount, but check out their numbers:

Rushing
Simpson: 30-147-3 (4.90 average)
Hart: 28-79-1 (2.82)

Receiving
Simpson 6-31-1 (5.20)
Hart 6-72-0 (12.00)

But keep in mind that Hart had the luxury of playing most of his snaps in blowouts with Manning at the wheel, while Simpson played most of his in the hard times when Curtis Painter was leading the team. People tell me hart is a better blocker and special-teamer, but I don’t see it. If he has an edge in either case, I’d say it’s too slight to be worthwhile.

So, in my opinion, the Colts cut a superior halfback and serviceable returner with 4.40 speed for an inferior halfback with no return ability and a 4.69 forty before he shredded his ACL.

Fine. But the Colts still need a fourth halfback. I know they like Southern Illinois’ Deji Karim, and could also be interested in Kentucky’s Alphonso Smith, but it’s a total crap shoot to see if those guys are better than Simpson or not.

• Daniel Muir and Melvin Bullitt signed their one-year tenders. That means they are on probation for their jobs. I know lots of fans are nuts about both of these guys, but Muir was only so-so last year and has a history of injuries, while Bullitt was really exposed in coverage. Don’t be surprised if potential replacements are drafted for either or both.

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Mocking the mockers (including me)

Here at ColtPlay, we like to look at what other people are saying. So here’s a collection of what most of the internet draft predictors have decided the Colts would pick. Perhaps notable by their absence are The Sporting News and ESPN. That’s because they both charge for their info and I don’t want to let their cats out of their bags. They’re always wrong, anyway, so you’re not missing much. So without them, here’s what we have.

About.com Jared Odrick DT Penn State
CBS Sports’ Chad Reuter Brandon Graham DE Michigan
CBS Sports’ Pete Prisco Maurkice Pouncey C Florida
CBS Sports’ Rob Rang Charles Brown T USC
CDS Draft Brandon LaFell WR LSU
ColtPlay Devin McCourty CB Rutgers
Draft Board Insider Maurkice Pouncey C Florida
Draft Countdown Charles Brown T USC
Draft Huddle Charles Brown T USC
Draft King Maurkice Pouncey C Florida
Draft Zoo Jerry Hughes DE TCU
DraftDaddy.com Charles Brown T USC
DrafTek Charles Brown T USC
DraftSite Kyle Wilson CB Boise State
East Coast Sports News Brian Price DT UCLA
Fantasy Football Jungle Maurkice Pouncey C Florida
Fantasy Football Xtreme Donovan Warren CB Michigan
Football Jabber Roger Saffold T Indiana
Football’s Future Brian Price DT UCLA
Football’s Future Brian Price DT UCLA
FOX Sports’ Peter Schrager Brian Price DT UCLA
GBNReport Maurkice Pouncey C Florida
KFFL Jared Odrick DT Penn State
Mocking The Draft Maurkice Pouncey C Florida
MyNFLDraft Brian Price DT UCLA
National Football Post Roger Saffold T Indiana
NESN Roger Saffold T Indiana
New Era Scouting Bruce Campbell T Maryland
New NFL Draft Mike Iupati G Idaho
NFL Draft 101 Kareem Jackson CB Alabama
NFL Draft Blitz Devin McCourty CB Rutgers
NFL Draft Dog Sean Weatherspoon OLB Missouri
NFL News and Rumors Daryl Washington ILB TCU
NFL.com’s Bucky Brooks Patrick Robinson CB Florida State
NFL.com’s Pat Kirwan Devin McCourty CB Rutgers
NFL.com's Charles Davis Maurkice Pouncey C Florida
Pro Football Weekly Roger Saffold T Indiana
ProFootballTalk Maurkice Pouncey C Florida
Redzone Report Jared Odrick DT Penn State
RotoTimes’ Ted Carlson Brian Price DT UCLA
Saturdays2Sundays Jared Odrick DT Penn State
Scout.com’s Chris Steuber Jared Odrick DT Penn State
Scout's Notebook Bruce Campbell T Maryland
SI.com’s Don Banks Brian Price DT UCLA
Sideline Scouting Brian Price DT UCLA
Sunday Kickoff Brian Price DT UCLA
The Draft Matters Maurkice Pouncey C Florida
Walter Football Roger Saffold T Indiana
Weller and Bryan Sean Weatherspoon OLB Missouri

I’ll save you the counting, and add my take:

9 DT Price
Very productive, but sloppy and raw. Doesn’t look strong enough to distinguish himself at the NFL level right away. If they drafted him first, I’d be: Okay with it.

8 C Pouncey
Could use a few more degrees of dedication to the game, but otherwise a great prospect. If they drafted him first, I’d be: Pretty darn happy.

5 T Brown
Ugh. I hate to say it, but he looks like a potential bust to me. If they drafted him first, I’d be: Wondering if Polian’s lost it.

5 DT Odrick
Another skinny college DT who’d be better off as a 3-4 end. If they drafted him first, I’d be: Wishing they hadn’t.

5 T Saffold
Looked great in the Senior Bowl, but was inconsistent before that. Will develop, but lacks killer instinct as run blocker. If they drafted him first, I’d be: Okay with it.

4 CB McCourty
He already plays like a Colts’ DB, and could easily grab the return job. If they drafted him first, I’d be: Delighted.

2 OLB Weatherspoon
Very good college ’backer who’s smaller than NFL standards and not all that tough seeming. If they drafted him first, I’d be: Meh.

2 T Campbell
Great pass blocker who lacks bite in the run game, is that really what the Colts want? If they drafted him first, I’d be: Okay with it.

1 CB Wilson
Great college corner who may not be tough and strong enough in the run game. If they drafted him first, I’d be: Wondering if they have changed their defense as radically as all that.

1 CB Warren
A great athlete at corner who needs to learn and use more technique and aggressiveness to succeed. If they drafted him first, I’d be: Wondering if he’ll ever be better than a fourth corner.

1 WR LaFell
A strong and talented college star at WR who lacks speed and explosiveness. If they drafted him first, I’d be: Wondering if the NFL is allowing the Colts to play with two balls at once.

1 DE Graham
Wow. A great college DE and a great kid. If they drafted him first, I’d be: Wondering how he fell so far in the draft.

1 DE Hughes
A much-hyped pass-rusher whose so-so first step may translate to a tough time in the NFL. If they drafted him first, I’d be: Hoping he's a better prospect than I once thought.

1 G Iupati
A college guard who can also play tackle, he seems capable of Pro Bowl play at either position. If they drafted him first, I’d be: Surprised he wasn’t selected a dozen picks earlier.

1 CB Jackson
A pretty solid college CB who may not have the explosiveness to be an NFL star. If they drafted him first, I’d be: Wondering if they saw something I didn’t.

1 ILB Washington
This guy’s a great athlete who lacks instincts and size. And he might not have Colts-type character. If they drafted him first, I’d be: Hoping they didn’t.

1 CB Robinson
Personally, I love this kid; not just as a corner, but as a return man as well. If they drafted him first, I’d be: Pretty impressed.

So, if you agree with the media, the Colts will grab Price or Pouncey. But before you put all your mock draft eggs in one basket, keep in mind that not a single one of those experts (including ColtPlay) correctly predicted that the Colts would draft Donald Brown in the first round. And only one of them had the Colts drafting a halfback first (and that was Ohio State’s Beanie Wells).

So in honor of that record of ineptitude by us draft predictors, and the Colts’ ability to surprise us all, I’m changing my guess from McCourty to Virginia Tech Jason Worilds. Wait, nobody has him yet, do they?

Thursday, April 1, 2010

Draft month begins

Some of the things I’ve been thinking about this time of year:

• My last year’s draft prediction would have worked out okay for the Colts:

1/27 Hakeem Nicks WR North Carolina (6006/212/4.51c) picked Giants
Great first season (47-790-6 on just 71 targets), and sky-high upside

2/61 Eben Britton T Arizona (6060/309/5.14c) picked by Jaguars
That pesky left tackle-of-the-future problem would have been solved

3/92 Myron Pryor DT Kentucky (6002/319/5.03c) picked by Patriots
Certainly not a star performer, but a good run defender and contributor

4/127 Stephen McGee QB Texas A&M (6027/225/4.61c) picked by Cowboys
Okay, he didn’t play, but he’s still a heck of a lot more inspiring than Painter

4/136 Gerald McRath ILB Southern Mississippi (6017/231/4.49c) picked by Titans
Not exactly Brian Cushing, but had a decent rookie season and is likely to start in 2010; a force on kickoff coverage

5/165 Joe Burnett CB/RS Central Florida (5093/192/4.58c) picked by Steelers
Didn’t play a lot on defense, but looked okay when he did; did not mount a real claim for the kick return job in Pittsburgh

6/201 Tyrell Sutton HB Northwestern (5080/211/4.68c4.64pd) picked by Packers
Cut by Green Bay, then claimed by Carolina. Shifted from halfback to fullback and gave the Panthers a powerful short-yardage guy at either position, he’s also a plus blocker and went a very respectable 14-302-0 when pressed into duty as a kick returner

7/236 Dudley Guice Jr. WR Northwestern State (6024/209/4.40pd) signed by Titans
Cut by the Titans, he’s a Colt now

• With Tom Moore sidelined, I wonder if there is any chance of a real, actual fullback creeping his way onto the Colts’ roster. As it is now, the Colts’ offensive personnel resembles that of one of those run-and-shoot teams that were all the rage in the 80s. The reason they died out is that they piled up lots of yards, but failed repeatedly on short yardage and in the red zone. Which, of course, are the Colts’ problems. In the Moore era, when a fullback was needed, they would either motion in a tight end or a wide receiver (I even saw Brandon Stokley in there!) or borrow a lineman from the defense. And, of course, it has seen little success.

If they do decide they need a fullback, he could be on the roster. Cody Glenn started his career at Nebraska, but was shifted to linebacker as a senior. He saw a few snaps there last season, but was not that impressive. Although they could groom him, I’d much rather see them draft a guy like Maryland’s Cory Jackson or Boise State’s Richie Brockel. Not only would it be a boost for the anemic running game, but it could improve blitz pickup, provide another dump-off option and strengthen special teams.

• I have this unusual feeling that the Colts might draft a cornerback in the first round. I’m not sure I’d do it myself, but I can’t shake the feeling.

• Lots of mock drafts – even those by Colts fans – are predicting that they will call Charles Brown’s name in the first round. I have to ask those people if they are absolutely unfamiliar with the concept of Tony Ugoh. Brown is eerily reminiscent of Ugoh in every way, although I think Ugoh has a much stronger upper body. Brown certainly looks like a left tackle in workouts, but less so on game film. Why is he so unpolished after spending his college career in a pro-style offense with great coaches at Southern Cal? Will he ever care enough to be what a team needs him to be? I could be very, very wrong, but I’d play it safe and steer well clear of Brown.

• My mock, so far

1/31 Devin McCourty CB Rutgers
2/63 Corey Wooten DE Northwestern
3/94 Jason Fox T Miami
4/129 Stevenson Sylvester OLB Utah
5/162 Clay Harbor TE Southwest Missouri
7/238 Jeff Linkenbach T Cincinnati
7/240 Sam Scott OLB West Chester
7/246 Josh Gordy CB Central Michigan

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Reading Polian's Mind

Y’know, in spite of his reputation for trickery and deceit, Bill Polian usually gives none-too-subtle clues about who he’ll draft in the first round, or at least which position.

So if we look at what Polian has said about this draft:

1) He blamed the Super Bowl loss on the offensive line, and vowed to make it bigger and tougher. This is eerily reminiscent of what he said about the secondary after a playoff loss in 2004. Of course, in the 2005 draft he selected cornerbacks Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Hayden in the first and second rounds. So you would suppose that the top pick is a lock to be an offensive lineman, until …
2) When commenting on the depth of this draft, Polian pointed out that the linemen depth in this draft is so strong, it would allow the Colts to grab a skill-position player who had fallen below where he should be picked. So now, they won’t grab an offensive lineman?

The other way to tell what position he intends to draft is that he has a habit of clearing roster space for top picks, guys he thinks are locks to make the team. So here’s a position-by-position look at what the Colts have now:

Quarterbacks
Elite starter: Manning
Solid starter: None
Potential starter: None
Role-player/veteran reserve: None
Worthwhile prospects: Painter
Special teams/fringe prospects: Willy
Players lost: Sorgi
Summary: Whether or not the Colts draft a quarterback depends on a) how long they think Manning will last, and b) if they believe Painter is the answer at No. 2. I think Manning’s got five more seasons, and Polian’s history says he likes to grab starting QBs in the first half of the first round after the team bottoms out. So with that theory out, what about Painter? Like it or not, I think the Colts believe in him.
Polian factor: Avoids drafting QBs unless he has to.

Runningbacks
Elite starter: None
Solid starter: Addai
Potential starter: Brown
Role-player/veteran reserve: Hart, Simpson
Worthwhile prospects: None
Special teams/fringe prospects: Moore
Players lost: None
Summary: Even though I’m not completely sold on either Addai or Brown, I don’t think Polian would ever draft three first-round backs in five years.
Polian factor: Loves getting backs other people don’t like as much as he does.

Wide Receivers
Elite starter: Wayne
Solid starter: Gonzalez, Garcon, Collie
Potential starter: None
Role-player/veteran reserve: None
Worthwhile prospects: Smith, Giguere, Matthews, Guice
Special teams/fringe prospects: None
Players lost: Baskett
Summary: A dedicated return man could make sense here, but that’d prolly be a late-round thing. Adam Schefter says that coach Jim Caldwell is considering four-wide sets, which could open up a need for a No. 5 guy.
Polian factor: Stockpiles wideouts of all shapes and sizes.

Tight Ends
Elite starter: Clark
Solid starter: None
Potential starter: None
Role-player/veteran reserve: Robinson
Worthwhile prospects: Tamme, Santi, Cloherty, Petrowski
Special teams/fringe prospects: None
Players lost: None
Summary: It’s probably too early to replace Clark, but I’d like to see better prospects here than what they have. Robinson starts most games, but he’s not a “starter” in the sense most fans mean when they say it.
Polian factor: Prefers wide receivers pretending to be tight ends.

Tackles (assuming Charlie Johnson is not moved inside)
Elite starter: None
Solid starter: Diem
Potential starter: Johnson, Terry
Role-player/veteran reserve: None
Worthwhile prospects: Ugoh
Special teams/fringe prospects: Cadogan
Players lost: Federkeil, Toudouze
Summary: There’s not a lot of talent here. Diem is good, but nearing the end. Johnson is out of place at tackle, and Terry’s just too injury-prone. I’d like to see a first- or second-round pick here.
Polian factor: Tends to grab small-school prospects and hope they’ll get coached up.

Centers and Guards
Elite starter: Saturday
Solid starter: None
Potential starter: DeVan, Alleman
Role-player/veteran reserve: None
Worthwhile prospects: Pollak, Thomas, Richard
Special teams/fringe prospects: None
Players lost: Lilja
Summary: Saturday is still a top center, but also nearing the end of his career. DeVan surprised many in his first year as a starter, but is not a sure thing. Alleman has all the tools, but has yet to put them together. Pollak and Richard have seen some action, but have generally be found wanting; and Thomas is a projection. If the Colts don’t bring in a starting quality tackle (or Terry doesn’t step up), allowing them to shift Johnson back to his natural guard position, I’d like to see an early pick here. Even if that does happen, I’d still like to see some new blood here.
Polian factor: Tends to grab small-school prospects and hope they’ll get coached up. Prefers college centers to guards for both positions in the pros.

Defensive Ends
Elite starter: Freeney, Mathis
Solid starter: None
Potential starter: None
Role-player/veteran reserve: Dawson
Worthwhile prospects: Baldwin, Hardie, Chick
Special teams/fringe prospects: None
Players lost: Brock
Summary: There’s no emergency here, but Freeney and Mathis are both getting older and worn-down, and there’s no obvious replacement on the roster. They could go here in the first, but I’d rather they waited and gambled on a boom-or-bust guy. Actually, they’ve done that lots of times before and the only time it’s worked out has been Mathis.
Polian factor: Can’t get enough pass-rushers, tends to gamble on college production as opposed to size, Combine numbers.

Defensive Tackles
Elite starter: None
Solid starter: None
Potential starter: Muir, Johnson
Role-player/veteran reserve: Foster
Worthwhile prospects: Moala, Gill, King
Special teams/fringe prospects: None
Players lost: Johnson
Summary: Foster’s the best performer here by a wide margin, but would be best served playing fewer snaps. People are raving about Muir and Johnson, but they really looked no better than adequate. None of the prospects really excites me. There are two ways Polian could go on this, either: a) I just drafted two DTs in the second and fourth last year, or b) I expected Big Ed to start, Moala to contribute and Taylor to at least make the team. Unfortunately, I think he’ll stand mostly pat, lean on the top three and hope one of the prospects to pan out. They will most likely draft a DT, but probably late unless a real gem falls to them.
Polian factor: Drafts DTs only reluctantly, and then tends to admire speed and quickness over size and strength.

Outside Linebackers
Elite starter: None
Solid starter: Session
Potential starter: Wheeler
Role-player/veteran reserve: None
Worthwhile prospects: Glenn, Renkart
Special teams/fringe prospects: None
Players lost: Hagler
Summary: The Colts never seemed that comfortable starting Wheeler, and neither of the prospects are anywhere near starting. Expect one or two picks here.
Polian factor: Drafts them in great numbers, but rarely high.

Inside Linebackers
Elite starter: None
Solid starter: Brackett
Potential starter: None
Role-player/veteran reserve: None
Worthwhile prospects: Humber
Special teams/fringe prospects: None
Players lost: Keiaho
Summary: Brackett’s signed for a while, and Humber has some talent, but his services may be required outside. If the Colts draft a middle linebacker, he’ll probably also be able to play outside as well.
Polian factor: Drafts them rarely.

Cornerbacks
Elite starter: None
Solid starter: Hayden, Powers
Potential starter: Lacey
Role-player/veteran reserve: None
Worthwhile prospects: None
Special teams/fringe prospects: Lambert
Players lost: Jackson, Jennings, Rushing
Summary: The top three are fine, but that’s what they are – three. The Colts usually go into a season with five NFL-quality CBs if they can. Look for them to draft at least one, probably early. Polian factor: To Polian, happiness is a new cornerback; he drafts them in droves.

Safeties
Elite starter: Bethea
Solid starter: None
Potential starter: Sanders, Bullitt
Role-player/veteran reserve: Silva
Worthwhile prospects: None
Special teams/fringe prospects: None
Players lost: Francisco
Summary: This is a position that looks like a pillar of strength, but it has its problems. Bethea is on a one-year tender, Sanders played just 75 snaps in 2009 because of one of his inevitable injuries and Bullitt was exposed in coverage often last season. Silva’s not a threat for too much playing time of defense. Getting a young prospect would really help here.
Polian factor: Can and will draft these guys anywhere.

So in conclusion, I have this to say: Your guess is as good as mine. Here's an updated list of the Colts picks to get you started:

1/31
2/63
3/94
4/129
5/162
7/238
7/240
7/246

Friday, March 19, 2010

Update

Sorry I haven’t posted for a while, but it’s been busy here at ColtPlay HQ. Here are some points:

• I’m glad the Colts did not sign Richie Incognito. They need to get tougher and more fiery on the offensive line, but not psychotic.
• Yes, everybody but me is rejoicing Tim Jennings is gone. I always thought he got more criticism than he deserved. His career with the Colts will always be summed by one play – the goal-line stand in Super Bowl XLIV. He got there first, he delivered the hit that stopped the back and allowed bigger men to wrap him up. He got no stat and no credit, but without him, the Saints score. So long, Tim, we didn’t all hate you.
• The Chiefs signed Ryan Lilja. What a joke. They sign him out of college in 2004, cut him and try to stash him on the PS. The Colts grab him, he starts 59 games for them, plays in two Super Bowls, then wears out. He fails his physical with two bad knees, the Colts cut him and the Chiefs welcome him back with a $7.5 million deal. Way to go, KC.
• This is the point of the offseason when I normally start listing who the media is reporting who the Colts are looking at. But since they are so often wrong, I’m probably not going to. It works like this. The local yokel media see the Colts at their team’s pro day and report that they must be there to look at their team’s best player. An example? Take 2008 when the Colts went to the University of Buffalo’s pro day. The draft-oriented media reported en masse that the Colts were interested in Trevor Scott. Made sense, after all. The Colts love undersized pass-rushers from small schools, and Scott was easily the team’s best – or at least, most NFL-ready – player. Although the Colts may well have had some interest in Scott, but repeatedly decided not to draft him (he went to Oakland in the sixth). Instead, the Colts drafted his teammate Jamey Richard and signed another Bull, Ramon Guzman, the next day, and still another, Drew Willy, in 2009. So forgive me if I see the media report that the Colts are interested in James Madison’s Arthur Moats, and don’t post it immediately. Although they could well like Moats, they could just as easily be scouting fellow Dukes Dorian Brooks or Mike Caussin. Still, I am intrigued by their interest in Appalachian State’s Armanti Edwards.

Saturday, March 13, 2010

More Adam Terry

All kinds of blogs and forums are talking about Terry as a guard, and some even say that he played inside when he was with the Ravens and/or Syracuse. But this is what Terry himself said:

"I think I might have put myself in there one time when I was playing Madden, but that’s about the extent of my guard career."

Friday, March 12, 2010

Adam Terry signed!

A few things Colts fans should know about Adam Terry:

He signed a one-year deal, so he’s unlikely viewed as a long-term answer. Still, if he looks awesome, he could be signed to a long-term deal.

In his five years in the NFL, injuries have limited him to 48 of 80 possible regular-season games. He has started 11 games, mostly at left tackle and a few at right tackle. He has allowed nine sacks and been flagged for nine penalties (eight false starts and one hold).

He looked much more effective and comfortable at left tackle than right.

Despite his incredible height, he has short arms. But it hasn’t seemed to hamper him.

Despite his incredible size, his strength and toughness are more often questioned than his balance, footwork or technique.

He’s from a nice little town in the Adirondacks.

Although he has played tight end in short-yardage sets, he has not played a single down at guard in the NFL.

He is considered a better pass blocker than run blocker, and I’d agree.

Injuries: 2009 (knee, 16 games); 2008 (knee, 3 games; concussion 1 game); 2007(ankle, 3 games) and 2005 (ankle, 9 games).

He played extensively on special teams for the Ravens.

He won Syracuse’s Ben Schwartzwalder Exemplary Football Player Award as a junior in 2004. And he also has a degree in history.

He’s a former DT.

He’s considered a good guy in the locker room and the community.

Ran a 5.32 at the Combine, but is a quick starter.

The first time I really noticed him in the NFL was in 2006 when star left tackle Jon Odgen went down after one series against the Steelers, and Terry stepped in. Terry totally neutralized Joey Porter who was Pittsburgh’s pass-rushing star at the time. I made a mental note.

In summary: Terry’s a left tackle who can play on the right side, but any projection of him at guard is just that, a projection (and who ever heard of a 6’8 guard?). If he stays in one piece, he could actually start at left tackle – really, he is that good a pass blocker – allowing Charlie Johnson to move inside and the Colts to groom a rookie to take over in 2011. Just as likely a scenario, though, is that he was signed to be a swing backup and third tight end – just like Dan Federkeil last season – perhaps giving the Colts enough depth to cut ties with Tony Ugoh.

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Keeping up

The big news today is that the Colts are actually looking at a starting-quality free agent. Adam Terry is huge (6080/334/5.32c in 2005) and strong, but is handicapped by short (32-inch) arms and a lack of durability have kept him from being an elite tackle. He’s looked very good when he has played at both right and left tackle (he has the feet for either position), but never really stayed healthy long enough to be a big-time contributor. I’d be happy if the Colts signed him. If he could stay in one piece, he could be a very nice addition, and he certainly fulfills Bill Polian’s mandate of getting bigger and nastier on the O-line.

Marlin Jackson is gone. He signed with the Eagles to play free safety for them. Good luck, Marlin, but you might want to tell your new employers you were much more effective outside than in.

AdamJT13 is a blogger who is uncannily accurate on predicting compensatory draft picks. This year, he says the Colts will get an extra seventh rounder. He also says there will be three awarded between the third and fourth rounds, none between the fourth and fifth, three between the fifth and sixth, six between the sixth and seventh. The Colts’ extra pick will be the third of the 15 awarded after the seventh round. If he’s correct (and he usually is), the Colts draft (trades notwithstanding) would look like this: 1/31, 2/63, 3/94, 4/128, 5/159, 7/224 and 7/228.

And the Colts also showed some interest in a guy who may be under most people’s radar. Mike Balogun (6015/250/4.75e) was a top inside linebacker prospect with the Oklahoma Sooners who lost his senior season’s eligibility because he participated in a semi-pro football league. He’s a good athlete who played very little in college, but showed some great athletic skills. He’d be a huge project, but could be worth it in the long run. Look for him to go undrafted and sign with the Colts as an UDFA.

Wisconsin OLB Jaevery McFadden (6011/230/e4.69) tells me he met with the Colts, among other teams.

Tuesday, March 9, 2010

A pick that makes sense

Some weeks ago, I asked my 12-year-old son who the Colts would draft in the first round. He didn’t even take a second to think about it. “Iupati,” he said, as though it had already happened. I asked him why. “Didn’t you watch the Super Bowl?” he answered. And that was that.

And, you know what? The kid might be right, at least if Iupati lasts that long. He’s a natural left guard (the spot recently opened after the cutting of Ryan Lilja), but has the long arms and footwork to succeed at left tackle. He’s huge (6051/331), tough and strong and has a defensive player’s mentality. I watched him in the Senior Bowl, and he was dominant at left guard, but a little less so when asked to play on the right side.

Iupati is exactly what the Colts need, but it may just be too obvious a pick for Bill Polian.

In other news, the Colts signed a defensive end named JD Skolnitsky (6052/263/4.74pd).

Don’t worry if he’s under your radar. He played at a small school, James Madison, and was declared ineligible for his senior year (2009) because he was caught with a banned substance. As a junior defensive tackle, he stood out with 61 tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks, 3 PBU, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery He signed with the Redskins out of college, and played fairly well for them in preseason at end. He was released by the new regime, and was claimed by the Colts.

He’s quick and strong, but doesn’t project as a top-of-the-line pass-rushing prospect. Instead, his best fit would be as a Raheem Brock-style base end who can slide inside on third down.

Skolnitsky, because he missed his senior year and is still thought of more as an undersized DT than a big DE, is as stealth as a prospect can be. But still, he’s got some decent raw material to work with, and is definitely worth keeping an eye on.

Monday, March 8, 2010

Lilja cut!

Lilja cut! Well, we knew it was gonna be one of them. I actually thought he played well last season, but he’s undersized and he was due a $1.73 million roster bonus. This clears up a couple of things. One, undersized and athletic is out, and big and nasty is in. It also means the Colts are short one starting offensive lineman. They could draft a guard in the first round and plug him into Lilja’s spot, or they could draft a tackle and slide Charlie Johnson into Lilja’s old left guard position. Either way, I think it means the Colts draft a big, ugly man in the first round.

Saturday, March 6, 2010

Pass-blockers

Pass-blocking success rates in 2009
Divide all pass blocks in which no sacks, QB hits or pressures were allowed for a success pas-block percentage. Keep in mind, centers and guards usually have higher scores.

Centers
Saturday 751/765 98.17
Richard 21/21 100.00

Guards
Lilja 735/765 96.08
DeVan 575/603 95.36
Pollak 192/200 96.00
Alleman 127/139 91.37

Tackles
Diem 706/747 94.51
Johnson 576/626 92.01
Ugoh 143/158 90.51
Toudouze 34/37 91.89
Federkeil 0/0 –

Overall ColtPlay pass-blocking score in 2009
This number is similar to above except sacks are worth three points, QB hits are worth two and pressures are worth one. I think it gives a clearer picture of each player’s actual effectiveness.

Centers
Saturday 18/765 97.65
Richard 21/21 100.00

Guards
Lilja 724/765 94.64
DeVan 563/603 93.37
Pollak 183/200 91.50
Alleman 122/139

Tackles
Diem 695/747 93.04
Johnson 561/626 89.62
Ugoh 138/158 87.34
Toudouze 33/37 89.19
Federkeil 0/0 – 87.77

Notes:
1. Players are listed in order of how many pass-blocks they performed at the position
2. Toudouze and Federkeil are currently free agents
3. Federkeil and Richard also played tight end in three tight end sets
4. Alleman’s numbers come from his time with the Chiefs last season, they should be taken with a grain of salt for several reasons

New signing: G Andy Alleman

The newest Colt is former Dolphins and Chiefs guard Andy Alleman (6040/305/5.07c). He was the fourth choice at guard on a very poor Chiefs line last year, and did not distinguish himself. He played six games, starting three (Jacksonville, Oakland and Cleveland). He played 224 snaps (85 run/139 pass) and allowed 2 sacks, 1 hit and 9 pressures (91.37 percent success rate), and fared a little better as a run blocker. He looked awful against the Raiders’ Tommy Kelley, but quite good against the variety of Browns he faced. He had one false-start penalty.

The book on Alleman is that he is a strong and athletic young man, but has been slow to acquire good technique as an offensive lineman after having been switched from defensive line in college. His pro career has been hampered by being cut by the Saints, part of an army of guard prospects in Miami and then just one of the foot soldiers in the disaster that was the Chiefs’ o-line after he was traded to KC last year. When the Saints originally waived him, the Colts were one of seven teams to put in a waiver claim.

With time, patience and good coaching, he could be a viable swing backup at guard and center. Nice bargain-basement pickup. I know everyone is thinking Ryan Lilja right now, but Alleman is a very different kind of player.

Friday, March 5, 2010

Good morning free agency

With Gary Brackett back in the fold and some key free agents – S Antoine Bethea, S Melvin Bullitt, T Charlie Johnson and DTs Dan Muir and Antonio “Mookie” Johnson – tendered, the offseason is beginning to shape up. Here’s a look at the remaining free agents:

WR Hank Baskett: His term in Indy was clearly over anyway

T Dan Federkeil: A Polian and Mudd pet project, but a spare part at best

S Aaron Francisco: His first year in Indy was a disaster, it’ll also be his last

OLB Tyjuan Hagler: Good-enough player on those rare occasions he’s healthy

CB Marlin Jackson: Former first-round pick started season as third corner, got hurt; Colts proved they could win just as easily without him

CB Tim Jennings: Not nearly as bad as the media and fans make him out to be, Jennings was, however, made redundant by the emergence of Jacob Lacey

ILB Freddy Keiaho: No longer seen as a viable starting option

CB T.J. Rushing: Added little on defense, appears to have lost his job as a returner

T Michael Toudouze: Career backup

Of course, that doesn’t mean none of them will be back. Neither Keiaho nor Hagler were tendered last year, and they returned. And Toudouze has been cut so many times, this non-tender probably doesn’t mean much to him.

In other news, the Colts released Jim Sorgi. I find this a tad surprising because Curtis Painter did little to make me think he has a future. Maybe they love Drew Willy.

And Raheem Brock Tweeted that he won’t be a Colts next season. That doesn’t surprise me at all. Not only did he have a poor season against both run and pass, he was scheduled to make $5.9 million in 2010.

So let’s look at the Colts depth chart, subtracting the non-tendered players, Sorgi, Brock and retired Matt Stover:

Quarterbacks
18 Manning, Peyton
7 Painter, Curtis
16 Willy, Drew

Runningbacks
29 Addai, Joseph
31 Brown, Donald
32 Hart, Mike
35 Simpson, Chad
00 Moore, Devin

Wide Receivers
87 Wayne, Reggie
11 Gonzalez, Anthony
85 Garcon, Pierre
17 Collie, Austin
10 Smith, Taj
14 Giguere, Sam
83 Matthews, John
00 Guice Jr., Dudley

Tight Ends
44 Clark, Dallas
47 Robinson, Gijon
86 Santi, Tom
84 Tamme, Jacob
46 Cloherty, Colin
80 Petrowski, Jamie

Tackles
71 Diem, Ryan
74 Johnson, Charlie
67 Ugoh, Tony
00 Cadogan, Gerald

Guards
65 Lilja, Ryan
66 DeVan, Kyle
78 Pollak, Mike
73 Thomas, Jaimie

Centers
63 Saturday, Jeff
61 Richard, Jamey

Defensive Ends
93 Freeney, Dwight
98 Mathis, Robert
96 Dawson, Keyunta
94 Baldwin, Ervin
97 Hardie, Rudolph
00 Chick, John

Defensive Tackles
90 Muir, Daniel
68 Foster, Eric
99 Johnson, Antonio
95 Moala, Fili
69 Gill, John
00 King, Mitch

Outside Linebackers
55 Session, Clint
50 Wheeler, Philip
52 Glenn, Cody
57 Renkart, Brandon

Inside Linebackers
58 Brackett, Gary
59 Humber, Ramon

Cornerbacks
26 Hayden, Kelvin
25 Powers, Jerraud
27 Lacey, Jacob
34 Lambert, Terrail

Safeties
21 Sanders, Bob
41 Bethea, Antoine
33 Bullitt, Melvin
40 Silva, Jamie

Kickers
4 Vinatieri, Adam

Punter
1 McAfee, Pat

Long Snapper
48 Snow, Justin

It looks as though defensive back has moved up the Colts list of draft needs, while defensive tackle has moved down. The Colts still need a long-term answer at left tackle, pass-rushing end to develop, a dedicated return man and to replenish the linebacking crew. I also wouldn’t mind another tight end.

Wednesday, March 3, 2010

Position Analysis: Tight Ends

Next up in our positional analysis is the tight ends. So let’s start by running the tight ends through the same passing statistics car wash we did the receivers.

Keep in mind that some of these guys switch positions from time to time. Of Clark’s 1206 snaps, 996 (82.59 percent) were at tight end, 175 (14.51 percent) were at receiver (either slot or wide), 35 (2.90 percent) were in the backfield (people always say at fullback, but he actually lined up as a halfback in a split-backs set more often than at a true fullback spot 26 to 9). Robinson spent 293 (89.90 percent) of his snaps at tight end and the rest at the H-back; Tamme spent one of his 70 snaps split wide and another at fullback, while Santi and Cloherty were always lined up at tight end.

Going out there: Dividing total number of pass routes by total offensive snaps.

Tamme 48/68 70.59
Cloherty 13/21 61.90
Clark 632/1206 52.40
Santi 30/70 42.86
Robinson 72/326 22.09

Conclusion: Clark was in for most of the Colts’ plays and his run-pass ratio reflects that. Tamme is clearly utilized mostly as a pass receiver, while Robinson and – to a lesser extent – Santi were regarded more as blockers.

Getting open: Dividing the number of pass routes run by how many times the quarterback threw at him.

Santi 30/11 36.67
Clark 632/129 20.41
Robinson 72/14 19.44
Tamme 48/9 18.75
Cloherty 13/1 7.69

Conclusion: This is one of those stats that reflect the fact that Clark played almost every offense play, Robinson was in there for a decent chunk, while the other guys barely played. Of players who played 20 percent or more of the Colts’ offensive snaps, Clark was in first place in this category, with super receiver Reggie Wayne the only one even close.

Catching the ball: Dividing the number of catches by the number of times he was thrown to.

Cloherty 1/1 100.00
Clark 100/129 77.52
Santi 8/11 72.73
Robinson 9/14 64.29
Tamme 3/9 33.33

Conclusion: Again, Clark’s is the only important number here, and it’s very, very good.

Dropsy: Adding drops to catches to determine the number of catchable passes and dividing by drops. The bigger the number, the less often the guy drops.

Cloherty 1/0 –
Tamme 3/0 –
Clark 107/7 15.29
Robinson 10/1 10.00
Santi 9/1 9.00

Conclusion: Traditionally this has been an area of concern for Clark, and he was on or about his career average this season.

Yards per reception: Dividing yards gained by receptions.

Santi 110/8 13.75
Tamme 35/3 11.67
Clark 1106/100 11.60
Robinson 62/9 6.89
Cloherty 2/1 2.00

Conclusion: Except for the plodding Robinson, all of the tight ends scored well here by tight end standards. But it’s also a good example of how small statistical samples affect these sorts of stats. If you take out each player’s longest catch, their averages are: Santi 10.86, Tamme 7.00, Clark 10.63, Robinson 5.38, Cloherty 0.00.

Yards per target: Dividing total yards by how many times the receiver was targeted.

Santi 110/11 11.00
Clark 1106/129 8.99
Robinson 62/14 4.43
Tamme 35/9 3.89
Cloherty 2/1 2.00

Conclusion: Again this was skewed by sample size. Interestingly, Clark’s number was higher than any of the Colts’ wide receivers.

YAC: Dividing total YAC by receptions.

Clark 499/100 4.99
Santi 37/8 4.63
Tamme 12/3 4.00
Robinson 21/9 2.33
Cloherty 0/1 0.00

Conclusion: Again Clark put up great numbers here – he would have come in second among the receivers.

Routes: Taking yards per reception and subtracting average yards after the catch.

Santi 13.75-4.63 9.12
Tamme 11.67-4.00 7.67
Clark 11.60-4.99 6.61
Robinson 6.89-2.33 4.56
Cloherty 2.00-0.00 2.00

Conclusion: Santi’s numbers are distorted because of the one bomb he caught, but it is interesting to see that Tamme usually went deeper than Clark. But nobody should be surprised to see Robinson way behind.

Making ’em miss: Dividing receptions by missed tackles caused.

Clark 9/100 9.00
Robinson 0/9 0.00
Santi 0/8 0.00
Tamme 0/3 0.00
Cloherty 0/1 0.00

Conclusion: Herein is an example of why Clark is not like the other guys.

Moving the chains: Finding the percentage of catches that go for first downs.

Santi 6/8 75.00
Tamme 2/3 66.67
Clark 59/100 59.00
Robinson 3/9 33.33
Cloherty 0/1 0.00

Conclusion: Ugh, this stat has never meant much to me. I only include it because people would ask for it if I didn’t.

Sniffing the end zone: Determining the percentage of receptions that went for touchdowns.

Clark 10/100 59.00
Cloherty 0/1 0.00
Tamme 0/3 0.00
Santi 0/8 0.00
Robinson 0/9 0.00

Conclusion: I think this one kind of speaks for itself.

Up the middle: Simply a look at the player’s receiving production in the toughest part of the field:

Clark 18-145-0
Santi 1-22-0
Robinson 1-6-0
Cloherty 0-0-0
Tamme 0-0-0

Conclusion: See above.

Penalties: The first number is total penalties, the second is how many were declined or offset.

Clark 1-0
Santi 1-0
Robinson 1-1
Cloherty 0-0
Tamme 0-0

Conclusion: Nobody stood out here.

Pass blocking: Percentage of pass blocks that did not result in a sack, QB hit or pressure.

Tamme 1/1 100.00
Clark 113/119 94.96
Robinson 61/66 92.42
Santi 5/6 83.33
Cloherty 0/0 –

Conclusion: This is somewhat misleading – as blocking stats almost always are – because it makes Tamme look like the best pass-blocker of the lot and Santi the worst when the exact opposite is closer to the truth. Santi’s one sad attempt to stop Calvin Pace on his way to Curtis Painter skews his stats in a negative way just as much as the 31-yard bomb he caught distorts his receiving stats in a positive way. The fact is that none of the Colts tight ends will remind you of an extra tackle – and when the Colts go with three tight ends on short yardage, the third is an offensive lineman like Dan Federkeil or Jamie Richard. Robinson and Cloherty block like the fullbacks they were in college, Clark and Tamme like the bulked up receivers they are and Santi more like a traditional tight end. But he is not that far ahead of the others.

Run blocking: When it comes to run blocking, I just have to use the old eyeball test. Actually, I have pages and pages of data that have to be cross-referenced but they are even more goofy, vague and misleading than pass-blocking stats. I factor them into my opinion, but they are not worth sharing here. Instead here are the tight ends ranked from best to worst in my opinion.

Robinson
Cloherty
Santi
Clark
Tamme

Conclusion: Robinson and Cloherty block like fullbacks on running plays too – great when on the move or downfield, but not so impressive in-line. The others don’t add much, although Clark is better in this regard than he is usually described as.

And I always include a few statistical odds and ends.

Clark and Santi both fumbled once. Clark ran twice for 11 yards. Tamme had seven special-teams tackles and two assists.

Conclusion: Tamme is effective on kick coverage units, missing just one tackle all year.
So let’s move onto the players on hand.

Dallas Clark
(6033/257/4.65c in 2003)
The consensus these days seems to be that a star tight end is a receiver first and blocker second. And Clark certainly fits that mold, and is maybe the best in the biz. His numbers would make most teams’ No. 1 receiver proud. He’s a deep threat, he’ll go over the middle, he’s a blitz outlet, he can take a screen all the way, he’s a red zone target ... in short, Clark is everything you want from a receiver. And his blocking is better than many critics would have you believe.

Gijon Robinson
(6006/255/4.71c in 2007)
Robinson plays like the hard-working small-school fullback he was. He has good hands but has a hard time getting open, which makes him a dump-off option only who adds little after the catch. He blocks well on the move and downfield, but not so great on the line. Oh, and you can forget that Combine forty, he plays nowhere near that fast. But he is the kind of guy you want on the roster ... as a No. 3 tight end, not the No. 2 he is now. One thing to note about Robinson: People talk about starters as though they are so much better than non-starters. That’s true when it comes to quarterbacks and offensive linemen, but not always true at other positions. Robinson started 10 games last season, and Austin Collie started five. But Collie played 908 snaps and looked like a major offensive weapon, while Robinson played 326 snaps and looked like a spare part.

Tom Santi
(6034/250/4.80c in 2008)
After the 2008 draft when everyone was going nuts over Tamme, I was more excited by Santi. My reasoning was this: Tamme was a skinny, no-block pass-catcher while Santi was a bulkier, more complete tight end. Since Clark had the pass-catching role taken care of ably and Robinson had a shakier hold on the other spot, I thought Santi had the better chance to make a case for playing time. It didn’t happen. Nagging injuries bedevilled Santi, and even when healthy, he ha s only shown flashes. He’ll get another chance to prove he belongs, but tight end No. 3 is not a position that offers a great deal of job security.

Jacob Tamme
(6034/236/4.58c in 2008)
A lot of Colts fans were excited when they drafted Tamme in 2008, based on his immense production at Kentucky. But there was always the nagging question – is he a big, slow wide receiver or a skinny, no-block tight end? So far, he hasn’t really been either. Injuries have been a problem, but with so many other receiving options, Tamme has not really had a chance to make a case for himself. He has shown some ability on kick coverage teams, but not enough to guarantee himself a roster spot. Tamme may have a hard time sticking for a third season, unless he steps up and shows he can fill a defined role.

Colin Cloherty
(6021/245/4.78pd in 2009)
I know what you’re thinking: a slow, Ivy League fullback? Sign me up! Actually Cloherty has great hands, plays with football intelligence and is stronger than his size would indicate. He has a tough road ahead of him, but could well outlast players with much more hype.

Jamie Petrowski
(6037/248/4.75e in 2006)
This is what I said about Petrowski almost a year ago:

You guys probably know more about this old Sycamore than I do. But I have seen him — mostly when he was a Titan in the preseason — so I know a little. Petrowski has good hands and vision, and is a some natural run-after-the catch instincts. He’s a load to bring down with the ball in his hands, but he’s not exactly Tony Gonzalez when it comes to getting open. As a blocker, he’s a big strong lad who shows potential, but not much refinement in that area. He’s sort of the odd man out in this little group because he’s more of a traditional complete tight end.

That’s all still true, but you also have to factor in the horrific injury that wiped out his 2009 season.

Conclusion: There’s a temptation to think of the Colts’ tight ends as superstar Clark and a bunch of guys. Give in to that temptation, because it’s true. Robinson holds on to his “starting” role because the Colts have no other realistic option. Santi and Tamme still have much of the potential they had when they were drafted, but their injuries and lack of production have put their futures in jeopardy. Cloherty is a long shot, but the kind the Colts like. Keep an eye on him. And it’s nice to have Petrowski around.

But, if I may paraphrase the old adage, if you have five guys who could be your No. 2 tight end, you don’t really have a No. 2 tight end. I really think the Colts will draft a tight end this year. Bill Polian will salivate at the pass catchers, but cooler minds will suggest a more complete player to complement Clark.

Monday, March 1, 2010

Position Analysis: Receivers

Okay, here’s a longer, more serious positional analysis. Let’s talk receivers, both wide and slot. While some guys argue that another site told them that Player A’s PVR is higher that Player B’s PDA, I look at a variety of stats and use my own eyes and experience to come up with an opinion.

Here’s a little sample of how I rate wide receivers:

The first category is about getting open or, at least, how much the quarterback trusts him. Either way, it’s a good thing. It’s not very scientific, but I came at the number by how many dividing the number of pass routes run by how many times the quarterback threw at him.

Wayne 732/146 19.95
Collie 634/85 13.41
Baskett 75/10 13.33
Garçon 672/88 13.10
Giguere 20/2 10.00
Gonzalez 8/0 0.00

Conclusion: Peyton Manning, of course, relies a great deal on Wayne, and he is very good at getting open. I wasn’t really surprised to see Collie edge Garçon on this because of his time in the slot, but it was a shock to see Baskett so high. At least it was until I realized that the majority of Baskett’s routes (and virtually) all of his targets came when he was playing with Curtis Painter, often as his best or second-best receiver. Gonzo only ran eight routes, so he can be forgiven. You know what, you can pretty well ignore any of his stats this season.

This is kind of going in a different direction, but the most traditional way of see how well a guy catches, you divide the number of catches by the number of times he was thrown to.

Collie 85/60 70.59
Wayne 146/100 68.49
Garçon 88/47 53.41
Baskett 10/4 40.00
Giguere 2/0 0.00
Gonzalez 0/0 –

Conclusion: Both Collie and Wayne had extraordinary years in this category. Collie’s was inflated some by his running shorter routes and, conversely, Garçon’s was brought down by his running longer routes (which we’ll get to later). Still, Garçon’s is low even for his type of routes and the old eyeball test tells me his concentration varies from play to play and that he makes circus catches and also whiffs on a few easy ones. He should improve. Baskett and Giguere are hard to judge because they weren’t getting Manning’s tight spirals, but Painter’s wobbly lobs. Over his career, Baskett’s generally been okay in this category.

Another way to look at hand quality is to see how often he drops the ball when he could have caught it. So I added drops to catches to determine the number of catchable passes and divided by drops. The bigger the number, the less often the guy drops.

Wayne 103/3 34.33
Collie 53/3 17.67
Garçon 51/4 12.75
Baskett 5/1 5.00
Giguere 0/0 –
Gonzalez 0/0 –

Conclusion: Wow. Wayne has long had a rep as a guy who won’t break your heart, and he was great last season. Collie and Garçon were about average in this category, and, well, Baskett can always blame Painter.

Here’s an oldie but a goodie, average yards per reception. Just divide yards gained by receptions and you can see ... well ... lots of things.

Garçon 765/47 16.28
Wayne 1264/100 12.64
Collie 676/60 11.27
Baskett 28/4 7.00
Giguere 0/0 0.00
Gonzalez 0/0 0.00

Conclusion: Garçon’s a deep threat. Yep, he sure is.

Here’s one I find more interesting. Instead of looking at how many yards a receiver gained for every catch he made, I like looking at how many yards the guy gained for every time he’s thrown at. So I took total yards and divided them by how many times the receiver was targeted.

Garçon 765/88 8.69
Wayne 1264/146 8.66
Collie 676/84 8.05
Baskett 28/10 2.80
Giguere 0/2 0.00
Gonzalez 0/0 –

Conclusion: Although the top three were all close, I was surprised to see Garçon’s longer receptions outdo Wayne’s better hands in this category.

And, of course, there’s always YAC – yards after the catch. This is a valuable stat that shows how elusive the receiver is after he catches the ball. I simply divided total YAC by receptions.

Garçon 290/47 6.17
Wayne 440/100 4.40
Collie 251/60 4.18
Baskett 3/4 0.75
Giguere 0/0 0.00
Gonzalez 0/0 –

Conclusion: Garçon’s incredible football speed – he ran a 4.42 at the combine, but plays a lot faster – combined with the fact that he usually caught in less traffic contribute to his great numbers in this category.

And, although it probably should have shown up higher on this list, here’s an indicator of what kind of routes these guys are running. If you take yards per reception and subtract average yards after the catch, you can see where these guys, on average, caught their passes.

Garçon 16.28-6.17 10.11
Wayne 12.64-4.40 8.24
Collie 11.27-4.18 7.09
Baskett 7.00-0.75 6.25
Giguere 0.00-0.00 0.00
Gonzalez -- - -- --

Conclusion: Once again, we see that Garçon is a deep threat, Collie gets the short stuff in traffic and Wayne does both. Garçon’s average route is more than 10 yards downfield, while Collie’s are just a little more than two-thirds as long.

This is another YAC-related one. By dividing receptions by missed tackles caused, you can see how often each guy makes defenders miss. I know it’s contrived, but it’s also interesting.

Garçon 47/4 11.75
Wayne 100/7 14.28
Collie 60/3 20.00
Baskett 4/0 --
Giguere 0/0 --
Gonzalez 0/0 –

Conclusion: Again the superfast Garçon comes out on top.

And here’s one lots of people like, but I’ve never been all that crazy about – percentage of catches that go for first downs.

Wayne 73/100 73.00
Garçon 33/47 70.21
Collie 37/60 61.67
Baskett 1/4 25.00
Giguere 0/0 --
Gonzalez 0/0 –

Conclusion: The top three guys are pretty good at moving chains.

The next stat looks at how well they sniff the end zone. It’s found by determining the percentage of receptions that went for touchdowns.

Collie 7/60 11.67
Wayne 10/100 10.00
Garçon 4/47 8.51
Baskett 0/4 0.00
Giguere 0/0 --
Gonzalez 0/0 –

Conclusion: I did notice that Manning was looking for Collie in the red zone, especially as the year went on. Garçon’s TDs came from 48, 53, 29 and 9 yards out – further indication that he’s a deep threat, not a red-zone guy.

And here's one used to measure toughness, how productive was he in the middle where safeties love to lay the wood.

Collie 15-184-4
Wayne 5-65-1
Garçon 1-14-0
Baskett 0-0-0
Giguere 0-0-0
Gonzalez 0-0-0

Conclusion: Collie does not fear the middle. Garçon just might.

I always like to look at penalties no matter what the position, just to get an indication of the player’s discipline and concentration. The first number is total penalties, the second is how many were declined or offset.

Garçon 9-2
Wayne 4-1
Collie 3-1
Baskett 0-0
Giguere 0-0
Gonzalez 0-0

Conclusion: Garçon’s youth and small-school background worked against him here, I think. He also had a penalty on special teams.

When it comes to blocking, I just have to use the old eyeball test. Here they are from best to worst.

Collie
Garçon
Wayne
Gonzalez
Baskett
Giguere

Conclusion: All of these guys make an effort, but Collie’s superior upper-body strength helps him. Giguere’s rating could change with more exposure, but he was whiffing against the Bills.

And I always include a few statistical odds and ends.

Garçon fumbled once, Garçon ran twice for 10 yards, Collie ran twice for 1 yard, Collie returned a kick 8 yards, Baskett had on special-teams assisted tackle

Conclusion: These guys don’t do a lot on special teams.

So let’s move onto the players on hand.

Reggie Wayne
(6000/198/4.45c in 2001)
While Wayne may have been edged out in a few of those stats, he is a far better player than any of them. Keep in mind that he’s the guy that sees the Darrelle Revises of the world and nets double and even triple coverage at times. Despite not having any measurable superlatives, Wayne is one of the NFL’s best and most productive receivers. Although he didn’t become a full-time starter until midway through his third season and he played in Marvin Harrison’s shadow for years after that, Wayne has averaged 75.1 catches, 1,043.7 yards and 7.0 touchdowns a season throughout his nine-year career. Signed through the 2011 season, there’s no reason to believe he won’t continue to be immensely productive.

Pierre Garçon
(5117/210/4.42c in 2008)
A sixth-round pick out of DIII powerhouse Mount Union, Garçon showed promise as a rookie catching four passes for 23 yards and returning 22 kicks for 475 yards. He entered 2009 camp competing with Collie and the since-departed Roy Hall for the third receiver spot. He lost to Collie, who seemed better suited to inside work, and became the top backup at all three spots. When Gonzalez was injured in the first regular season game, Garçon took over and put up numbers similar to what the Colts expected of Gonzalez in the regular season and he looked great in the playoffs. With Gonzalez back at full-speed, it looks like the pair will battle for the No.2 outside spot. Garçon’s advantage is that he’s much more explosive.

Austin Collie
(6007/200/4.56c/4.53pd in 2009)
A fourth-round pick few expected much from right away, he showed a great deal of maturity (because of a Mormon mission, he came out at 23) and won the slot receiver outright. His ascent demonstrates the inherent differences between wide receivers and slot receivers. Garçon is faster, a better leaper and more likely to make the circus catch, while Collie has more consistent hands, short-area quickness and a stronger upper body to fight for the ball. If the competition were held again today, Collie would again win, even though we have all seen how productive Garçon can be. But, if the same competition were held outside, Garçon would come out on top. One runs flies and posts, the other makes his money running hooks and slants. So Collie has a good hold on the slot spot, unless Gonzalez loses his bid for an outside position, Unlike either Collie and Garçon, Gonzalez is comfortable in either spot, so he could edge Collie out.

Anthony Gonzalez
(6000/193/4.44c in 2007)
A former first-round pick, Gonzalez was an undisputed starter heading into 2009, but suffered a season-ending right knee injury in the first game. It’s not a huge statistical survey, but it’s important to note that of 13 offensive snaps Gonzalez was healthy in 2009, Wayne played 13, Gonzalez 12, Collie two and Garçon none. Based on his previous production, the Colts can look for a cross between Garçon and Collie. Comfortable either inside or out, Gonzalez has recorded high catch rates (67-73 percent) and decent per-catch averages (11.65-15.57) and shown speed, hands, good cuts, but an annoying tendency to drop some easy ones. He will definitely expect a starting role when he’s healthy enough to reassume one, but he’ll have to beat out Garçon or Collie to get one.

Hank Baskett
(6027/224/4.50c in 2006)
The book on Baskett when he arrived in Coltland as a veteran injury replacement after Gonzalez went down was that he was competent, but not special. He was fast, but didn’t play fast. He was big, but didn’t play big. He was hampered to some extent by playing with Curtis Painter at QB, but didn’t look great at any time. In truth Baskett looked like he ended his tenure with the Colts when he muffed the Saints onside-kick attempt in the Super Bowl. In the unlikely event they do ask him back, he’d have a hard time getting any PT after the emergence of Garçon and Collie and the return of Gonzalez.

Samuel Giguere
(5110, 220, 4.41pd in 2008)
There’s raw, then there’s really raw, then there was Giguere when he came out. He played his home games in an 8,000-seat stadium for Le Vert & Or (The Green and Gold) at the Université de Sherbrooke, about a two-hour drive from Montreal in a part of Quebec called the Eastern Townships. There are different rules, a different ball and a different-sized field. But it’s not impossible to make the jump. Former Colts second rounder Jerome Pathon (a South African by birth) played in the CIS before jumping to the NCAA. Lots of Colts fans like Giguere because of his interesting story and his bod-builder physique, but he’s still a long shot. He’s been on the Practice Squad for most of two years now, and has played one regular season game. Interestingly, that game was in deep snow, something Giguere should be used to. He didn’t catch either of the passes Painter shot-put his way, but he was the team’s primary kick returner, and did a decent job. He recorded 5-122-0 on returns of 11, 31, 36, 18 and 26 yards. He also made a nice attempt to down a punt at the Bills’ 8-yard line, but it bounced away from him. And it looks very much like special teams will be Giguere’s ticket to playing in the NFL. He has the look of a gunner, but may have to earn his spot by winning the kick return job outright. He has some of the attributes you look for in a returner, but did not excel at the position in college ... sorry, université.

Taj Smith
(6003/187/4.59c4.43pd in 2008)
Colts fans underestimate Smith because they don’t know much about him other than his Combine forty and his arrest. But Colts players and coaches talk about how athletic he is and what a great guy he is. Smith was productive in a bad offense at Syracuse, and could well emerge after spending most of the last two seasons on the Colts Practice Squad. But the reality of the situation is that the Colts already have four starting-quality receivers and almost never play four wide; and when they do, that fourth is usually tight end Dallas Clark. So to make the team, Smith (et al) would have to look outstanding as a receiver or at least very, very good on specials.

John Matthews
(5113/200/4.52pd in 2009)
The Colts signed Matthews as an undrafted free agent and he spent most of his rookie season on the practice squad. He’s a similar player to Collie in that he’s neither fast nor big, but shifty with good hands and very, very productive in college (195-3,615-50). The difference would appear to be that Collie’s strength and determination put him on a somewhat higher level. Although Matthews doesn’t look like he’ll offer much on specials, he could win a spot on receiving ability alone. Look at the preseason, Smith caught 5 of 11 passes thrown his way for 59 yards and one touchdown and Giguere was not thrown at once, while Matthews caught 7 of 9 for 85 and no scores. His best shot would be to convince the Colts they need a backup slot guy even though they have Collie and Gonzalez on hand.

Dudley Guice Jr.
(6024/209/4.40pd in 2009)
What can I say about Guice that hasn’t already been written? He actually has a good shot to earn the No. 5 position because he has a very high ceiling as a receiver and has a special-teams mentality. He’s worth developing, and his special-teams ability could keep him on the roster, rather than the Practice Squad.

Conclusion: There is a lot of premium talent here, but also a ton of impending competition. Wayne is safe at No. 1. Gonzalez will have to fight Garçon and Collie for playing time, and it could well be quite a scrap in either case. The fifth receiver spot is open, and the Colts have collected a number of well qualified candidates (did you know that Smith, Giguere, Matthews and Guice all graduated before they signed with the Colts?) to take over. It’s unlikely the Colts will draft another receiver – but you never know with Bill Polian at the helm – but they will bring in some UDFAs.