Hughes is gone, Sheppard and the UDFAs are in

As busy as I am, I was in a rush to post about the UDFAs until I found out the Colts had traded the Outlaw Jerry Hughes to the Bills. The reason I don’t rush to say who they traded him for is because I kinda don’t care. Just getting Hughes and his stupid contract out of town is good enough for me.

Lots of people (including me) were delighted when the Colts drafted Hughes in the first round of the 2010 draft. But since then, he’s been terrible on defense, worse on special teams and has demonstrated some very un-Colt-like behavior. He’s not a bad person, just not a Colt. Begone, I says, good riddance to ya.

In return, the Colts get inside linebacker Kelvin Sheppard. Pressed into duty last year, he did okay. He looked pretty much like I thought he would (I see a lot of the Bills up here). A bit overwhelmed, but generally okay. He’s actually kind of the opposite of what you expect from inside guys in that he’s better in coverage and blitzing than he is in stuffing and shedding.

He may never amount to much, and the Colts are very deep at his position. But any return for Hughes at this point has to look like gravy.

So, onto the UDFAs:

Denodus O’Bryant HB Lindenwood

Numbers: 5085/194/4.44pd

2012 stats: 198-1,205-11 rushing, 38-537-3 receiving, 13-300-1 kick returns

It’s funny that the Colts added O’Bryant after drafting Utah State’s Kerwynn Williams because they are pretty much the same back. Both are compactly built guys who play much bigger than they are at halfback, and are excellent return men and good receivers. And, of course, neither is big enough for many reps and at halfback in the NFL and neither would be much help against a determined blitzer, either. To pick nits (and that’s what I do here), Williams is a more accomplished receiver, playing split wide or in the slot throughout much of career, while O’Bryant’s the better returner. I first noticed him in 2009 when he went a ridiculous 13-477-4 on kick returns and followed it up in 2010 when he went 11-384-2, while on his way to becoming the Lions’ primary ball carrier. His 18 reps and 38-inch vertical at his pro day helped, too. It appear that the Colts are looking for a dedicated return man who can also serve as a score-from-anywhere threat on offense.

Dan Moore FB Montana

Numbers: 5097/234/4.63

2012 stats: 76-413-4 rushing, 11-203-1 receiving

Moore’s a lot like the Stanley Havili, the fullback the Colts recently traded to get. Both are smaller, more athletic-style fullbacks who are more effective than devastating as blockers, but have good receiving skills and the ability to run the ball. Moore’s versatility — he played fullback, halfback and H-back in college, as well as special teams — make him valuable in the Colts’ offense. But like Havili, Moore’s had injury problems.

Jamal-Rashad Patterson WR Stanford

Numbers: 6020/209/4.55pd

2012 stats: 16-271-2 receiving, 4-59-0 rushing

What, another offensive player from Stanford? Well, Patterson’s more of a track guy who has yet to find himself in football. An occasional starter for the Cardinal, Patterson needs to develop in many aspects of the game before he’s an NFL-quality receiver, though. The fact that he’s not a return guy doesn’t help his cause, but familiarity with Andrew Luck and Pep Hamilton does.

Rodrick Rumble WR Idaho St.

Numbers: 6021/209/4.59pd

2012 stats: 74-1,006-6 receiving

The Colts signed another big, unheralded receiver. But, unlike Patterson who was unproductive at a big-time program, Rumble was very productive at a lower-status program. Another track guy, and an accomplished basketball player, Rumble will have his work cut out for him to make the team. Again, it’s unlikely he’ll play any part in the search for a return man.

Lanear Sampson WR Baylor

Numbers: 5111/204/4.40c4.38pd

2012 stats: 52-546-6 receiving

A reliable complementary guy in college, Sampson’s problems with getting off the line of scrimmage and being creative about getting open will probably be magnified in the pros. He has some kick return experience, but has not excelled at it. The key for Sampson would appear to be improving his toughness and strength.

Jerome Cunningham TE Southern Connecticut St.

Numbers: 6025/250/4.70pd

2012 stats: 29-337-2 receiving

So, the Colts have a big blocking tight end who can catch the odd outlet pass and goes by J. Cunningham? Make that two.

Emmett Cleary OT Boston College

Numbers: 6067/316/5.21c

2012 stats: Offensive line, dude

Anthony Castonzo’s pal, roommate and replacement at Boston College, Cleary is gifted with a big frame, but not with elite athleticism. He could develop into a swing backup tackle, though.

Jordan Bright DE Indiana St.

Numbers: 6060/294/5.19pd

2012 stats: 7 tackles, 16 assists, 5-19 tackles for loss, 1-9 sack, 2 hurries

This year’s token Sycamore is a 3-4 DE/4-3 DT-type who saw little action in college due to injuries and players ahead of him. A long shot.

C.O. Prime ILB Wagner

Numbers: 5112/255/4.90pd

2012 stats: 32 tackles, 66 assists, 2.5-6 tackles for loss, 0.5-2 sack, 1-12-0 interception, 3 pass deflections, 1-0-0 fumble recoveries, 2 forced fumbles

An undersized small-college DE and DT, Prime will be given a short at inside linebacker with the Colts. He has the athleticism, but it will be quite a step up for this kid from football-crazy (trust me on this) Laval, Quebec.

Nigel Malone CB Kansas State

Numbers: 5102/184/4.47pd

2012 stats: 44 tackles, 7 assists, 5-102-0 interceptions, 23 pass deflections, 1 forced fumble

Remember the corners Bill Polian used to like? Talented in all ways, but so small they were pushed around with impunity? Well, Malone’s one of them. Still, he has the skills to be a pretty decent NFL slot corner.  

Sheldon Price CB UCLA

Numbers: 6020/190/4.46pd

2012 stats: 30 tackles, 7 assists, 0.5-0.5 tackles for loss, 4-8-0 interceptions, 14 passes deflected, 1 blocked kick

While Price looks the part and has all the measureables, he has not shown consistent cornerback play in college. His best hope is that the Colts coaching staff teach him something UCLA’s did not.

Daxton Swanson CB Sam Houston St.

Numbers: 5100/186/4.48c4.44pd

2012 stats: 33 tackles, 13 assists, 1.5-6 tackles for loss, 4-29-0 interceptions, 32 passes defelected, 1-0-0 fumble returns, 2 forced fumbles, 1 blocked kick

Another undersized corner, Swanson is an excellent athlete who could emerge as an extra DB.

Nick Driskell S Mount Union

Numbers: 5084/197/4.53pd

2012 stats: 63 tackles, 38 assists, 3-23 sacks, 14.5-57 tackles for loss, 2-4-0 interceptions, 11 pass deflections, 3 forced fumbles, 2 kicks blocked, 1-1-0 rushing, 2-53-1 punt returns

It wouldn't be the Colts if they didn't grab a guy from Mount Union. Driskill was an amazing do-everything guy for the Raiders, playing everywhere on the field on defense and special teams and even occasionally on offense. Guy’s a player, don’t count him out.

Michael Josifovski K Marian

Numbers: 6011/194/4.94pd

2012 stats: 15/26 field goals, 55/56 PAT, 83-5,103-35 kickoffs

Another local kid. Kicker is a weird situation for the Colts. Vinatieri is set to retire, and McAfee looks primed to replace him, but can he really handle punting AND kicking? And will he keep signing one-year tenders? The Colts need to audition. This kid’s got a decent leg, needs a bit of psychological toughness.

Brandon McManus K Temple

Numbers: 6034/201/4.80pd

2012 stats: 14-17 field goals, 32-33 PAT, 56-3,556-40 kickoffs, 54-2,433-17 punting

A bigger guy, a better athlete and a stronger leg than Josifovski, and he can punt. But does he have the stuff the realize that he’s facing two potential hall of famers for a roster spot?

Post-draft thoughts

The Colts draft is full of questions. Can Bjoern Werner play 3-4 OLB? Can Hugh Thornton convert back to guard? Can Khaled Holmes handle inside blitzes? Will Montari Holmes be dedicated enough to the game to contribute? Can John Boyett stay healthy? Is Kerwynn Williams big enough to play in the NFL? And is Justice Cunnigham ... actually, Cunningham’s pretty much a sure thing. Let’s take a look: 

1. Bjoern Werner OLB Florida State 

Wow. When draft-speculating season began, Werner was seen as a Top 5 pick. It was his college production that made teams want him so badly. As a frosh, he recorded 3.5 sacks, then 7 as a soph and a remarkable 13 as a junior before declaring for the draft. And he passed the eyeball test, showing great natural athleticism, discipline and technique far beyond his years. But then it kind of fell apart for him. At the combine, he ran poorly (4.81 and 4.83) and didn’t really impress in any other drills. But the game is not played in drills. Players like Emmitt Smith and Anquan Boldin had terrible forties, and it hardly held them back. Maybe Werner will get caught from behind on a long interception or fumble return, but I don’t see too many other holes in his game. 2013 expectation: Werner will probably beat out Erik Walden, Lawrence Sidbury and the Outlaw Jerry Hughes for the right to start opposite Robert Mathis. Though a natural 4-3 end, Werner has great athleticism, and should have no problem adapting to the Colts’ system. I think he could develop into a double-digit sacker relatively quickly, but they will come through his relentlessness, not explosion. 

3. Hugh Thornton G Illinois 

The tenacious wrestler with the troubled childhood doesn’t have the length to stay outside, and will play guard in the pros (that’s not too much of a challenge because he has started at guard in college). Quick and strong, he gets into position very quickly and fights to the whistle every play. A move inside would mask his biggest liability (lateral movement) and get the best out of his natural mauler tendency. 2013 expectation: While I think Donald Thomas is a shoo-in for the left guard spot, Thornton will fight Mike McGlynn, Joe Reitz, Jeff Linkenbach and maybe Ben Ijalana for the right-side job and could well win. 

4. Khaled Holmes C USC 

There’s a lot to like about Holmes as a natural offensive lineman. He’s quick and strong and has enviably long arms. But he has three major question marks that make him a project: 1) he has a great deal of difficulty recognizing interior blitzes, committing too quickly to a double-team and letting the blitzer go by untouched, 2) he has a long history of lingering injuries, and 3) he’s been inconsistent snapping the ball. Until he gets by those hurdles, don’t expect him to see much playing time on offense. His 13 bench-press reps at the Combine didn’t impress anyone, either; but that’s not always a great indicator of playing strength. 2013 expectation: I think Holmes will be a virtual redshirt as a rookie, learning and playing as a swing reserve before challenging for a bigger role in 2014. 

5. Montori Hughes NT Tennessee-Martin 

Hughes is an even bigger question mark than Holmes is. There is no doubting his gifts; he is simply a huge man with phenomenal strength and quick reflexes. But the problem lies between his ears. Years of poor decision-making and questionable commitment and work ethic have made Hughes, a first-round talent, a fifth-round gamble. First academics derailed him, then two drug arrests. Then, after transferring from Tennessee to Tennessee-Martin, he played well, but did not dominate the way he should have, relying more on brute strength and explosion without improving his technique. He’d go from one stellar play to jumping offside the next or being flattened by a man half his size and staying on the ground until the whistle. 2013 expectation: The Colts traded a 2014 fourth-round pick to get Hughes, so they must really like him. Although there is a great quantity of nose tackle options on the roster, all of them have major question marks. But like Holmes, Hughes will have to show he’s progressed enough to be reliable before he gets any snaps on defense. 

6. John Boyett S Oregon 

Here’s an easy-to-like pick. Injuries aside, Boyett showed early in his college career he is a pro-quality safety, delivering big hits and demonstrating solid coverage ability, particularly in zone. A former quarterback, he’s hard to fool. More important for the turnover-starved Colts, he has very soft hands for the position. 2013 expectation: Safety is a deep position on the Colts right now, and Boyett will struggle for playing time as a rookie on defense (although not on special teams). He could get a bigger role in 2014, especially if the Colts let incumbent free safety Antoine Bethea (set to become an unrestricted free agent) walk. 

7a. Kerwynn Williams HB Utah State 

And here’s the back I said they’d never draft. And that’s no dis on Williams, who is a talent, just not a fit. He’ll run between the tackles, but is hardly a fall-forward, drag-defenders kind of guy and — horrors! — he’s a major liability as a pass-blocker. But the Colts didn’t pick the kid’s name out of a hat. He’s a truly elusive runner, especially as a kick returner, and an excellent receiver, often splitting wide in college. 2013 expectation: I think the Colts will give Williams every chance to win the return specialist job. If he does, or shows enough promise that he could, he could also get some reps on offense, perhaps as a slot receiver and/or gadget-play guy. 

7b. Justice Cunningham TE South Carolina 

Another easy-to-like pick; Cunningham is a real load as a blocker, often used by the Gamecocks as a third tackle. Although he has soft hands and is a reliable receiver, his limited athleticism prevents him from getting off the line quickly or being effective against safeties (or even linebackers) on all but the shortest routes. Remember when the Colts drafted Brody Eldridge? They wanted a heavy-blocking tight end who could occasionally catch an emergency pass. It didn’t work out, but Cunningham seems like the guy they wanted then. 2013 expectation: Cunningham will compete against Weslye Saunders for the Colts’ blocking tight end job, and could well win.

Hmmm

I haven't posted because I've been super busy, but has anybody noticed how popular it's become to predict Carradine as the Colts' top pick once ColtPlay did. (Drops microphone, walks off stage.)

Colts sign Josh McNary

Two years ago, Josh McNary was a very productive college defensive end and outside linebacker who had a few strikes against him, he was small (just under six feet tall, and about 230 pounds), played at a lower level of competition, and had committed to spend the next two years of his life in the Army.

But with those years done, McNary's the latest addition to the Colts roster. The good news is that he was ridiculously successful in college, recording 28 sacks and 49 tackles for loss. He was super-quick off the snap, had a variety of pass-rush moves and, as they say, a non-stop motor.

But that was two years ago. I'd love to see this kid make it,. but it's a real uphill battle for him.

Answering Roy

Roy is one of ColtPlay's readers, and he sent me a few questions. Let's see if I can answer them.

He pointed out that he feels Vick Ballard is pretty ordinary at halfback, and that a replacement or complement would be a good idea for the Colts.

I think "ordinary" is a bit harsh because Ballard has his special moments, and is well-suited to the Colts offense, but he could uses some help. An upgrade over Godamnit Donald Brown and Delone Carter in the backfield with Ballard should not be that hard to find.

I think we can safely rule out the acquisition of a "speedback" or change-of-pace runner. The offense works how it works, and I don't see the point in retooling it temporarily for a different type of back when Ballard's not in. The duties of the back in this offense are to help keep Luck safe as an outlet receiver and pass blocker and to grind out tough yards, falling forward and dragging defenders to beat them up, exhaust them and keep them from easing into nickel, dime and quarter formations. So you can forget about some 185-pound speedster who gets a 4.0 yards-per-carry average by mixing 20-yard bursts among losses and no gains.

The presence of and focus on Andrew Luck means it's not reasonable to think that the Colts will have a 1,600-yard back, but it's not out of the question that they could draft one in the first round. Alabama's Eddie Lacy is exactly the kind of back they like, and he'll likely to be available at No. 24. Some prefer North Carolina's Giovani Bernard, but don't count me among them. While Lacy would almost certainly be a top NFL back, pressing needs elsewhere could well preclude him becoming a Colt.

Later in the draft there are some interesting halfbacks, but they all kind of lack something. South Carolina's Marcus Lattimore is an outstanding talent, probably the best in this year's class, but his record of two season-ending ACL injuries in two years is kind of scary.

Stanford's Stepfan Taylor would appear to be tailor-made for the team after excelling in Pep Hamilton's offense in college, but his 4.76 forty is hard to ignore.

Then there's Christine Michael of Texas A&M. As gifted a back as you'll see, Michael doesn't have a head for the game. Maturity and effort issues, along with injuries, make him a question mark as well.

If the Colts grab Lacy, he probably opens camp at No. 1. If they draft anyone else, Ballard's the starter, and the other guy will fight to be No. 2.

Roy also points out that the Colts would be wise to protect their investment in Luck by drafting North Carolina guard Jonathan Cooper in the first round if he's available. I would have no problem with that, although I think pass-rusher is a more pressing need. It's as simple as this: Are you more confident with Joe Reitz at right guard or Erik Walden at ROLB? The point may well be moot, though, because I can't see Cooper lasting until No. 24.

And finally, Roy asks if Darrius Heyword-Bey was the big signing Jim Irsay was hinting at on Twitter, or if it was just part of Irsay's dog and pony show. I'd have to say bit of both. I think the Colts intended to sign or trade for a big-name receiver, were shut out and signed DHB as a consolation prize. He is well known, but primarily for being something of a draft bust.

Well he is fast, and it's only a one-year deal

A few days ago, I was pretty impressed with the Colts for not signing Darrius Heyward-Bey. Then they signed him.

Oh well, it's a one-year deal, so if he doesn't work out, that's cool.

The big thing he brings is speed. DHB has run the forty in the 4.25-4.30 range, and plays fast. He's also a bigger guy, who is hard to press and knock off his routes. And, although this was a big complaint early in his career, he's actually become a pretty decent route runner. He's also become a pretty effective blocker for a wideout.

Now the bad. His hands aren't as awful as people have claimed, but they're not good, either. Last season he dropped six of the 47 passes he got his hands on. Despite all his speed, he's not really elusive and does not have many moves to make yards after the catch. And, although he's a pretty strong guy, he doesn't always play tough, fighting for balls in traffic, fighting for extra yards or making the big catch over the middle.

An appropriate simile for DHB would be one of those mega-horsepower muscle cars from the late 60s and early 70s that had remarkable straight-line speed, but weren't really good at doing anything else.

Because of DHB's ineffectiveness out of the slot, I think we'll see Reggie Wayne and TY Hilton as the starters in two-receiver sets, with DHB lining up wide and Hilton shifting over to the slot on three-receiver sets. That is, of course, if DHB can beat out LaVon Brazill, Griff Whalen and anybody else they bring to camp.

While I'm certainly of the opinion that he represents an upgrade over Donnie Avery, and that his almost legendary straight-line speed will probably inspire some defensive backs to play a bit deeper than they normally would, I'm not a huge fan of this signing. DHB seems a bit out of place in Pep's offense, and he does not have the potential to be the No. 1 guy the Colts will need when Wayne eventually slows down and/or retires.

It seems to me that the signing was more an attempt to make headlines and Twitter traffic by adding a big name, rather than a player who can make a real impact. I hope I'm wrong about that.

Still, DHB's presence probably means us fans can take wide receiver off our lists of positions we can consider for the first round in our mock drafts.

BG points out that the team still needs a right guard, corner; safety; edge rusher and third halfback, and wonders if they can solve the guard problem through free agency.

The only significant free agent left at guard is 10-year veteran Brandon Moore. I'm sure the Colts could make a run at him, although I hear the Cowboys are his most likely destination, but I'm not sure they will. Instead, I think they will throw Joe Reitz, Jeff Linkenbach, Mike McGlynn, Ben Ijalana and anyone who comes in the draft (although it's unlikely to be a first-round pick) into the fray and see who wins the job. My money's on Reitz.

Corner could be an option, although the Colts have a lot of money invested in their top three (Vontae Davis, Greg Toler and Darius Butler), and not an insignificant amount earmarked for their probable No. 4, Cassius Vaughn. The other three guys already in house (Josh Gordy, Marshay Green and Teddy Williams) should be able to give them a competent, developable No. 5. Of course, it's always a position you want to upgrade, but I can't see the Colts investing a first-round or even third-round pick at the position (unless they fall in love with somebody) because I can't see who the rookie would displace. An aside: Keep an eye on Williams. He's raw as sashimi, but is also one of the few humans who may actually be faster than DHB.

Safety is an interesting option, despite the presence of starters Antoine Bethea and LaRon Landry and swingman/special-teams ace Joe Lefeged. Bethea is going to be an unrestricted free agent next season, and the team has made no movement toward signing him to a long-term contract yet, and I'm not sure he fits their concept of an ideal safety. Maybe he walks. If he does, the team needs to replace him.

Edge rusher, of course, is a crying need, despite the signings of Erik Walden and Lawrence Sidbury. If the Colts use their first-round pick at any other position, I'll be surprised if not totally disappointed.

As for halfback, I'm not totally in agreement with BG. Instead of a No. 3, I think the Colts need a No. 2 who could challenge to be No. 1A if not No. 1. In fact, it's one of the few positions that would actually make sense in teh first round if the team can't find a pass rusher they like enough.

Just a few Colts-related thoughts

Remember how everyone in Coltsland (except ColtPlay, natch) were telling us all about how interested the team was in Mike "Possum" Jenkins? Well, Jenkins has been a free agent for a while, and I don't think the Colts have dialed his number. Maybe his value was over-rated. The Jags offered him a one-year deal, and he turned it down. Now he's shopping his services to the Bills and Raiders, and nobody wants to play for the Bills or Raiders.

That reminds me of Carson Palmer, whose agents says that if he's cut (and he's almost certain to be), the guy the Raiders gave two first rounders (and more) for, would rather play for the 49ers than the Cardinals. While it's certainly true that the 49ers are a much better-run organization with a very good chance of winning a Super Bowl in the next few seasons and the Cardinals are not, it makes me wonder about the guy. Yes, he could get a ring with San Fran, but in Arizona, he'd actually be wearing a helmet, not a baseball cap. It's not like Matt Hasselbeck, who knew his starting days were behind him when he signed in Indy.

I'd love it if the Colts got a nice halfback in the draft to complement Vick Ballard, but all of them come with so many questions. Hard to be sure about any of them, but there sure is upside. I have a sneaking suspicion we'll see Christine Michael wearing a horseshoe next season.

There's precious little left in free agency, especially at the positions the Colts want. Anybody want to see Ryan Lilja again?

I like the trade for Stanley Havili. He's just a guy who can help in so many ways if he stays healthy. Obviously, his primary job on offense will be as a blitz pickup/outlet receiver, but he can also help on special teams in coverage (he had six special-teams tackles last season) and as a blocker.

I know Josh Chapman is still the future at nose tackle, but they didn't sign Aubrayo Franklin to sit. But that's okay. Franklin is getting on in years (but at a position that has seen lots of success by players well into their 30s) and will offer no pass rush, but he stops runners cold and annoys and occupies linemen, so it's all good.

Like everyone else, I'm pretty sure the Colts won't be able to find a decent starter out the Outlaw Jerry Hughes, Erik Walden or Lawrence Sidbury. To be perfectly honest, I believe that if all three were given the same number of snaps, Sidbury would be the most productive. Still, I'd love to know what made the Falcons bench him when he was so promising early in his career and they so desperately needed pass-rushers? And if was so serious, why didn't they cut him?

Interesting thing about Walden, although his contract is huge, the signing bonus was only $1 million and only his first year's salary is guaranteed. If he's not effective in his first season, cutting him would not leave behind a lot of dead money. Seems like the Colts like him, but are prepared to dump him pending his one-year audition. Similarly, Sidbury received no bonus at all.

How about this scenario?

With the draft rapidly approaching, I thought it would be fun to put myself in the captain's chair.

1/24 Tank Carradine OLB Florida State
I know, I know, he never did anything before 2012 and is recovering from an ACL tear last November. But when he did play, he was outstanding (11 sacks in 12 games). The Colts need an explosive pass rusher, and it's only Carradine's lack of experience and injury that allow them to grab him at No. 24. I also considered: Jonathan Cooper G North Carolina and Keenan Allen WR California.

3/86 Aaron Dobson WR Marshall
Again I'm choosing the potential greatness, with a good degree of risk. Dobson has all the tools to be a No. 1 NFL wide receiver, but lacks the experience and polish of many others in this class.

4/121 Dennis Johnson HB Arkansas
A do-everything feature back who can run, catch, block and return kicks, Johnson is available here only because of his 13 career lost fumbles. They appear to come from the way he holds the ball, a trait that could be coached out of him.

6/191 Theo Goins G Central Florida
Late picks are usually role players or high-risk.high-upside guys, and the only risk with Goins is whether he can adjust to the NFL after getting by on brute strength in C-USA. Plus, you gotta like a guy named Thaophilius.

7/230 Manase Foketi G West Texas A&M
There were a lot of guys at a lot of positions I liked here, but I had to go with the one with the biggest upside.

7/254 Melvin White S Louisiana-Lafayette
Miscast as a corner, he'd make a better pro safety.

Colts trade for fullback Stanley Havili

Another ex-Eagle has landed in Indy. The Colts traded little-used defensive lineman Clifton Geathers to Philadelphia for fullback Stanley Havili.

It's a pretty good move. The Colts needed a fullback, and Havili is a versatile one.

He's not the punishing blocker most people desire at the position, but does a decent job clearing holes and keeping blitzers at bay. In college, he was regarded as a receiving threat, but did not do all that well recording 7-43-0 on 11 targets with one drop. He's not a bad runner, going 6-22-1 as a rook. And, rare for a fullback, can make people miss. He could definitely get some snaps in at halfback.

The biggest problem with Havili is his injury history.

And, in other news, Jeff Linkenbach signed his tender.

Options at receiver

I'm pretty happy Darrius Heyward-Bey left Indy without a contract. Although he could still sign for a lower price, as his agent says he's deciding between the Colts and Lions (and hinted at Lions because he and Matthew Stafford are old friends), I think the team would be better off if he didn't.

Don't get me wrong, the Colts need a big strong wideout badly, and it would be much better if he was fast. Obviously DHB fits those criteria, but I don't think he's what the Colts need.

He's really just a deep threat, but I'm not sure the Colts lack that. Yes, he did run a 4.25 forty back in the day (2009), but second-year Colts TY Hilton (4.34) is plenty fast, too. Last season, DHB was targeted 20 times on passes that were 20 yards for more through the air, going 4-181-1 with two drops. By comparison,  Hilton (who was also targeted 20 times), went 10-383-6 with one drop. While Hilton was obviously the beneficiary of superior quarterback play, it was also his rookie season.

The Colts already have guys who can get yards before the catch, they need guys who can get yards after the catch. While DHB would be an improvement in that department over the since-departed Donnie Avery, he's not as good at it as many other more polished and versatile receivers.

He's also uncomfortable in the slot, is not a return man and doesn't play on special teams. He's a pretty good blocker, though.

So if DHB isn't the answer, who is? All the posturing Colts owner Jim Irsay has done on Twitter regarding acquiring a veteran receiver makes me think they plan to use their first-round pick elsewhere (please, please let it a be an edge rusher, I don't trust the talents of Erik Walden any more than I do those of the Outlaw Jerry Hughes).

Since it appears as though they have been shut out from that plan, they may have to draft a guy early. I'm pretty sure Tennessee's Cordarrelle Peterson will be gone by No. 24, but California's Keenan Allen should be available. I love the kid, and the frequent comparisons to Jordy Nelson are more than apt. But that may make him more of a really, really good No. 2 rather than the No. 1 they need to eventually replace Reggie Wayne.

Another option could be Clemson's DeAndre "Nuk" Hopkins. He has all the atlent in the world, but I'm afraid his lack of over strength and his hand use will make for a rude awakening for him in the NFL, as he'll be pressed and jammed and knocked off his routes like he never was in college.

And, to tell the truth, their forty times (4.53 for Allen and 4.57 for Nuk) disturb me.

If they wait until the third round, the best options would most likely be Tennessee Tech's Da'Rick Rogers (immaturity issues), Arkansas' Cobi Hamilton (limited upside) and Marshall's Aaron Dobson (hmmm). I really like Dobson. Don't put too much into his lack of big-time production at Marshall, the reasons for that were beyond his control. He may take a while to hit his NFL stride, but he could turn into a serviceable No. 1 after a few seasons. If he can stay healthy.

State of the Colts: Defense

Defensive ends and defensive tackles

In: Ricky Jean-Francois
Out: None
That means: An upgrade. The Colts had some up-and-down play at these two positions last year, and the signing of RJF helps. He gets a lot of criticism because he never played a lot of snaps in San Fran, but who was he gonna put on the bench? Justin Smith, the best 3-4 lineman in the league? Or Ray McDonald, who's not far behind? Still, he;'ll have no problem finding playing time in Indy; pencil him in as a starter.
Will they draft one?: I thought they could go high here until the RJF signing. Still, they could grab a guy like Georgia Tech's underrated Izaan Cross late.


Nose tackles

In: Aubrayo Franklin
Out: Antonio Johnson*
That means: The Colts are not sure about the health of their holdovers here. Essentially, the Colts are replacing the woefully miscast Mookie Johnson at nose tackle with three new players: Besides Franklin, there's 2012 draft pick Josh Chapman and 2012 free agent-signee Brandon McKinney, both of whom missed last season with knee injuries. The fact that they signed Franklin, who'll likely start, indicates they're less than confident about Chapman and McKinney bouncing back.
Will they draft one?: Unlikely, but maybe. Franklin is a competent starter, but might not be for long. If they believe Chapman's his heir apparent, they probably won't select a nose tackle in the draft. But if they don't, they might look at a guy like Tennessee-Martin's Montori Hughes, who dominated in the Ohio Valley Conference, to develop.


Outside linebackers

In: Lawrence Sidbury, Erik Walden
Out: Dwight Freeney*, Jamaal Westerman*
That means: The Colts do not believe in conventional wisdom, or the abilities of the Outlaw Jerry Hughes. While it was obvious to all that Freeney wasn't coming back, and to most that Hughes was not a realistic replacement, the Colts surprised everyone by investing in Walden and Sidbury, two guys who have combined for 14 sacks in 116 games (that's just less than two sacks per 16 games).
Will they draft one?: I certainly hope they do. I'm pretty sure I don't have to bring up the usual suspects.


Inisde linebackers

In: None
Out: AJ Edds*, Moise Fokou
That means: The Colts are generally happy with their inside guys, which include Jerell Freeman, Pat Angerer and Kavell Conner. None of them are headed to Canton, but all are legitimate NFL starters.
Will they draft one?: Maybe, but I'd rather it were later rather than sooner. A guy like Iowa State's AJ Klein might be nice.


Cornerbacks

In: Greg Toler
Out: Jerraud Powers
That means: The turnover continues, although it should be noted that the Colts retained two other free agents, Darius Butler and Cassius Vaughn.
Will they draft one?: The Colts have an enviable top three in Vontae Davis, Toler and Butler, and have invested enough to make me think they are there for the foreseeable future. You could make a decent four and five out of Vaughn and the younger prospects on the team (Josh Gordy, Marshay Green and Teddy Williams), but if the Colts want a developmental guy to add to the competition, I like Louisiana-Lafayette's Melvin White, who could wind up at free safety.


Safeties

In: LaRon Landry
Out: Tom Zbikowski
That means: While I liked Zbikowski a lot, I'm pretty good with the Landry signing. He'll be happy to eb an ex-Jet.
Will they draft one?: Hard to say. I know the Colts have been looking at draft-eligible safeties, and Antoine Bethea is slated to become a free agent after the season, so it could happen.

State of the Colts: Offense

Sorry about the delay. So busy with work and touring to promote my new book. But now that the smoke has settled, let's look at how free agency has affected the Colts and their plans.

Quarterbacks 
In: Matt Hasselbeck
Out: Drew Stanton
That means: An upgrade. Not only is Hasselbeck a superior quarterback to Stanton is just plain playing terms, he has a great deal of experience and career wins (80 to Stanton's two). He is one of the few quarterbacks around the league who actually could have something valuable to teach Andrew Luck, and his presence should be invaluable to young Chandler Harnish. And unlike Stanton, who is off chasing his quixotic dreams in the desert, Hasselbeck realizes his starter's days are behind him.
Will they draft one?: Probably not. Luck's established as the starter, and Hasselbeck should be able to help Harnish become a legitimate No. 2 before he retires.

Halfbacks
In: Nobody
Out: Deji Karim, Mewelde Moore
That means: Not a lot. Although Karim was a successful return man, he saw no time on offense. Moore did, and he was terrible.
Will they draft one?: Almost certainly. Like all Colts fans, I love Vick Ballard's effort and style, but I'm not sure the team considers him an elite back. And Goddamnit Donald Brown adds little and is unlikely to break out. There are more than a few backs that fit the Colts' system in this draft, and I know they like Texas A&M's troubled-but-talented Christine Michael. A safer pick would be Vanderbilt's Zac Stacy, but he has a lower upside.

Receivers 
In: Nobody
Out: Donnie Avery, Austin Collie 
That means: Things are going according to plan. After yet another season-ending injury to Collie, it was pretty clear the team expected to move on. And, although the current regime signed Avery and installed him as a started, they also watched as he was eclipsed by younger talents.
Will they draft one?: Almost certainly. Colts owner Jim Irsay led many to believe by his tweets that the team was pursuing a big-name veteran wide receiver, but no deal has emerged. They have a pretty decent little group with Reggie Wayne, TY Hilton, LaVon Brazill, Nate Palmer and Griff Whalen, but they lack size and there is no heir apparent to Wayne, who'll turn 35 this season. A first-round pick is a possibility if they fall in love with a guy like Tennessee's Justin Hunter or Clemson's DeAndre Hopkins.

Tight ends and fullbacks
In: Nobody
Out: Nobody
That means: The Colts are understandably quite please with their tight end corps.
Will they draft one?: It's not impossible. While Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener are well-entrenched as one and two, the team could add some competition to push blocker Weslye Saunders and do-everything guy Dominique Jones. A project like Rutgers' DC Jefferson, a smart former quarterback, could be worth a look.

Tackle 
In: Gosder Cherilus
Out: Tony Hills, Winston Justice
That means: An upgrade. Cherilus has developed into a top right tackle, and offers much more durability than Justice.
Will they draft one?: They might. Depth is an issue as the current projected backups are much-maligned Jeff Linkenbach and youngsters Bradley Sowell and Lee Ziemba. Both starters are fairly young, so tehre could be time to develop someone like Azusa Pacific's Luke Marquardt.

Guards and centers
In: Donald Thomas
Out: Seth Olsen
That means: The team addressed one of its most serious issues.
Will they draft one?: I'd expect so. Although the team likes both Mike McGlynn and Joe Reitz, neither played well last season. Thomas should be able to hold down one spot, but the other could be in open competition. Kent State's Brian Winters could be a great addition.

Welcome Ricky

Okay, I'm on board now.

Catching my breath on free agency

This is the point at which we all second guess the signings. This is how I categorize them:

Awesome
Darius Butler

Gosder Cherilus

Great
Donald Thomas
Greg Toler
LaRon Landry

Okay, they must know something
Ricky Jean-Francois
Lawrence Sidbury

WTF?
Erik Walden

I put Butler at the top not because he's an outstanding player, though he quite a good one, but because of how the team handled his signing. They took him off the scarp heap, allowed him to play his game, and he excelled. His reward was a contract, but it was tempered by the fact that he signed under the understanding that he would be the team's third corner. Considering the egos corners have, that's impressive.

You'll hear lots of "good riddance" and "you got swindled" by sour grapes-spewing Lions fans in reference to the Cherilus signing. Take it for what it is. Cherilus was the last first-round pick of the much-reviled Matt Millen, and he struggled as a rook, then was hit by injury. But Cherilus isn't to blame for who drafted him, nor his injuries. And although like many a tackle (look at Duane Brown, for example) who may look disastrous as a rook, he found himself later on.

I watch a lot of the Lions because of where I live, family connections to the city and because I like Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson, and I can tell you that Cherilus has made himself one of the best right tackles in the league, stalemating guys like his old rival Jared Allen.

Thomas was seen as a talent who could never put it together until he got to New England. Great, thanks for coaching him up, guys. He steps in as by far and away the most talent guard the team has had in years.

My feeling on Toler vis-à-vis Jerraud Powers are unchanged. They have similar talent levels, but Toler gets the edge because he is more physical.

I've never been a huge Landry fan because I think he's one of those guys who concentrates more on the big hit than consistently strong safety play, but, with that said, he gets the job done.

RJF? I get that he plays all three line positions, but does he do any of them particularly well?

Sidbury's a boom-or-bust guy. Full of excellent physical attributes, for sure, but the Falcons must have benched him for a reason.

Walden, Walden, Walden. I gotta say it again. They must know something I don't.

And now they've signed LaRon Landry

More tomorrow. I'm at work and sleepy.

Mo' signin's

Continuing on the free-agent front, I see that the Cardinals have signed Jerraud Powers in what now looks like a trade of talented, but injury-prone cornerbacks. As much as I like Powers, I think the Colts came out slightly ahead due to Toler's size and aggressiveness.

The Redbirds also swiped the Colts' backup quarterback Drew Stanton. I'm not sure this is a big a loss for Indy as it is for the desert-dwellers. The reason Stanton made the move, from what I hear, is that the Cards are giving him a shot at a starting job. Stanton lacks the deep accuracy and the ability to sell play action for that. He's a backup, not a guy you want to pay big money (three years, $8 million) to.

That puts the Colts in the market for a backup quarterback. Many fans have said they think the job should be handed to Chandler Harnish, but I'm not sure he's ready. The traditional thinking is that it's best to bring in a veteran to help mentor a young starter, but I'm not sure what Andrew Luck still has to learn other than some magic mojo possessed by greats like Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Recently cut erstwhile Buffalo starter Ryan Fitzpatrick is smart and wily, he could be a great pickup if he's cheap. Other than him, the free agent market looks kinda bleak with Rex Grossman at the top. Or they could use one of their few, precious draft picks on a Kirk Cousins-like rookie backup. I have a soft spot for Arizona's Matt Scott, who I think could be a dynamo in this offense, but he's not much more polished than Harnish was last year.

And another former Colt will be wearing red this season -- Donnie Avery signed with the Chiefs. It became clear earlier in the offseason that, despite his decent performance in his one season in Indy, Avery was not part of the team's future. The two receivers they drafted last year have much higher upsides and are slim speedsters in the same mold as Avery. If the Colts wanted to sign a receiver, I'm sure their preference would be for a bigger, stronger guy.

And another now former Colt, Moise Fokou, will be in the powder blue of the Flaming Thumbtacks. Fokou's certainly not a bad player, but not a difference-maker, and one who played a decreasing number of snaps last season. It should not be hard to replace the team's fourth-best option at inside linebacker.

So, correct me if I'm wrong, but does the starting lineup look like this?

QB Andrew Luck
HB Vick Ballard
WR TY Hilton
TE Dwayne Allen
RT Gosder Cherilus
RG Joe Reitz
C Samson Satale
LG Donald Thomas
LT Anthony Castonzo
TE Coby Fleener
WR Reggie Wayne

RDE Fili Moala
NT Josh Chapman
LDE Cory Redding
ROLB Erik Walden
RILB Kavell Conner
LILB Jerell Freeman
LOLB Robert Mathis
RCB Greg Toler
LCB Vontae Davis
SS Tom Zbikowski
FS Antoine Bethea

Free agent frenzy

There will be a lot of sad faces in Coltsville today. many of the free agents Indy fans have been public in their desire for signed elsewhere right away. Paul Kruger is a Brown, Andy Levitre a Flaming Thumbtack and Louis Vasquez will be protecting Peyton Manning in Colorado.

Perhaps more important is the fact that the team could not come to a deal with Jerraud Powers before he hit the open market. It's sad, because he's a quality player and guy, but the Colts brass are too smart to pay two guys No. 1 corner money.

As I write this (I'm at work), the announcement just came through that through that the Colts signed former first-round pick Gosder Cherilus. Although he'd had some problems with injuries and speed rushers in the past, he was outstanding for the Lions last season at right tackle, especially in pass defense. He's a plug-and-play starter, so his presence and the tender offer to Jeff Linkenbach make the likelihood of the team re-signed Winston Justice slim. Too bad, great guy, but Cherlius represents an upgrade.

Cherlius is still young-ish (28), but has a lot of miles on his tires. An excellent pass blocker and plus run blocker, his biggest liabilities are his penchant for penalties, and his injury history. He was arrested once for his part in a bar brawl years ago, but does not seem like a character risk at all. I'm not sure how big the contract is, but it's for five years, so it's probably quite large.

And now it's come to my attention that an old favorite of mine, Greg Toler, has signed with the Colts. Arizona's third corner last season after recovering from a nasty ACL tear in 2011, he played very well. According to ProFootballFocus.com, he allowed just a 41.4 completion percentage for a 51.5 passer rating. He also graded out as the team's best corner in run support.

Better in man than zone coverage, Toler is big and strong enough to make a real impression as a press corner. Many fans will probably expect him to be a slot guy, but he's way more effective outside. Three years at $15 million makes me think he's expected to start opposite Vontae Davis. I'm okay with that.

Lawrence Sidbury is interesting. Coming out of college, he was a much-desired pass-rushing prospect in 2009. He seems to have all the tools, and appeared to be emerging as a pass-rushing force in 2010 with four sacks, but the Falcons benched him and he added just one more sack in two years, playing sparingly. I don't know why the Falcons soured on him, just that they did.

He'll get a chance to compete, but does not look like the pass rusher the Colts need to make the next step.

The Colts also added much-traveled guard Donald Thomas. He had some issues, especially in pass protection, in the past, but played very well with the Patriots last season. An accomplished run blocker (contrary to common opinion, smaller guards often excel in the running game). If he's as good as he looked last season, the Colts have a strong candidate to start at guard.

I'm not nearly as nuts about another Colts' signing, outside linebacker Erik Walden. A college DE who's spent some time in Dallas, KC and Green Bay, Walden has collected just nine sacks in 66 games played. Last season in Green Bay, he played a lot and showed a few flashes, but nothing I got excited about. Not much against the run, but pretty decent in coverage. Since the Colts gave him $16 million for four years, they must see something I don't.

And he spent a weekend in jail for allegedly punching out his girlfriend.

Late note: The Colts also re-signed Darius Butler. Yisssss.

Love me tender

The Colts announced today that they will be offering tender offers to restricted free agents Jeff Linkenbach and Cassius Vaughn, and to as exclusive-rights free agents Joe Reitz, Martin Tevaseu and Josh Gordy.

Before we get into details, I think it's important to point out that they did not offer tenders to Seth Olsen, AJ Edds or Deji Karim. Olsen and Edds aren't surprising -- Olsen has been ineffective and Edds, though talented, is injury-prone -- but Karim is an explosive return man, something none of the other players on the roster have proven to be yet.

I know lots of Colts fans are unhappy to see Linkenbach return, but I think he deserves a shot to compete for a roster spot if not a starting job. Similarly, Vaughn had some rough stretches last season when he was called upon to start, but could be an effective depth player.

Reitz, though not great, was probably the Colts' best guard last season, and he's still learning the position. Getting him back is very important. Tevaseu is a depth-only guy, but with two of the three nose tackles ahead of him coming back from severe injuries and the other an unrestricted free agent the Colts are not likely to re-sign, having him back at a bargain-basement price is a wise idea. Gordy had some nasty burns in coverage last season, but still has some potential and isn't a bad special-teams guy. Again, bring him back is a prudent move.

Cut veterans

The free-agent market is rapidly expanding as teams cut veterans or tell free agents not to expect an offer. Anyone who reads even just a little ColtPlay knows I'm skeptical when it comes to signing veteran free agents, but a few makes some sense. One has kind of piqued my interest.

Eric Winston is a top-of-the-line right tackle who has been cut twice in two years for reasons related to the salary cap. Aside from a few too many penalties, Winston is a consummate right tackle as both a run and pass blocker. He's a good person, a team guy and he won't turn 30 until around midseason. The Colts would be an excellent landing place for him, especially if he'd like to get some measure of revenge against Houston, which surprised him with his release after a stellar 2011 campaign.

Many of the other veteran options don't seem like good fits for the Colts. A case could be made for some. Michael Jenkins has some great skills, but lacks the toughness to be the big receiver the Colts need. Dunta Robinson (an old favorite of mine) was burned very badly last year, and looks very much like he's lost his mojo. Michael Turner is interesting as a blocking and short-yardage option, but his days as a feature back are in the past. Stewart Bradley's history of injuries make him a non-starter. Gerald Sensabaugh has some skills, but is not a sure tackler or intimidating hitter. John Abraham can totally still bring it, but is 35 and coming off some injuries (which he played through). He has played outside linebacker in the 3-4 in college, but that was back in 1999 when Andrew Luck was in fifth grade.

Other than those guys, not much is out there.

Catching up

Sorry about the time off, busy with books and publication bans and all kinds of other mishegoss.

First on the agenda has got to be reports that the Colts are actively seeking to sign a pair of defensive backs -- Cary Williams and Ed Reed -- from the Ravens. The reports seem less backed in fact than they do from speculation based on the facts that the Colts need defensive backs and that Colts head coach Chuck Pagano  is familiar with both players as a former defensive coordinator of the Ravens. Add to taht the fact that the Ravens are cap-strapped after having made Joe Flacco the highest-paid player in NFL history, and it makes great sense.

I like Williams, but I think his price tag will be inflated after his great performances in the playoffs and Super Bowl. He'll command a long-term, top-dollar contract, and I'm not 100 percent sure he's worth it. His presence would no doubt improve the secondary, but I'd balk if he's expecting franchise-tag numbers. I'm even less sure about Reed. Although his leadership qualities and experience are undeniable, I'm pretty sure I saw him begin to decline last season. If they do sign him, and they could well, the shorter the contract (and the less guaranteed money) the better.

***
As far as keeping their own free agents is concerned, the media consensus is that the Colts are concentrating on cornerback Jerraud Powers first, defensive lineman Fili Moala second and corner Darius Butler third. That kind of makes sense since Powers has No. 1 potential when he's healthy, Moala fits the system well and was very promising before he went down last season and Butler player like an all-star last season (but only after years of being beaten while playing for other teams).

Of course, that came after the team placed a franchise tag on Pat McAfee. Both sides have said they they want to work out an equitable long-term deal, and they probably will. I can't say often enough how imporatnt McAfee is to the team, and it would be a horrible mistake to let him go.

So where does that leave the rest of the Colts free agents? Outside looking in.

***
Everyone's talking about the Mike Chappell Jim Irsay interview. The big revelations about Bill Polian being open to trading Peyton Manning in 2004 and about how the 2012 draft would have unfolded if the Colts did not have the first pick certainly are interesting, but, since they are both based on what-if scenarios, not taht important in any real sense.

Grigson speaks

Maybe it will be a corner with the first pick. Colts GM Ryan Grigson to ESPN's Paul Kuharsky that if he had to choose between a rookie offensive lineman and a rookie corner, he'd go with a defensive back. His reasoning is that the learning curve is steeper on the line and linemen see things in the NFL "they've never even dreamed of" during their college careers. Astute reasoning, I think.

***
He also spoke with the Indy star's Mike Chappell. Updating injuries on the defensive line, he thinks Josh Chpman will be ready for OTAs, as will Drake Nevis. Brandon McKinney will be take a little longer and Fili Moala longer still. He especially called out Chapman, saying he "played it safe with him" and that he has "big plans" for the giant nose tackle. That, I think, should quiet any more talk of a first-round nose tackle (unless, of course, a can't-miss mega-prospect falls into their laps). Grigson also said he hoped to re-sign Moala, an unrestricted free agent.

He also said he likes the teams halfbacks, especially Vick Ballard. He even outlined a Ballard-Godammit Donald Brown-Delone Carter pecking order.

The other meaningful thing he said was that TY Hilton has to hit the weight room. He even called him a "peanut." Not exactly Bill Parcells calling Terry Glenn "she," but I'm sure young Eugene gets the point.

***
Lots of talk on the net about the Colts potentially acquiring Nnamdi Asomugha after the Eagles renegotiate his contract. Not sure how that'd work. It wouldn't be feasible under his current deal (it calls for salaries of $15 million in 2013, $12 million is 2014 and 2015, the first $4 million is guaranteed), and if the Eagles are working to restructure him, they'd probably also like to retain him. Great guy, great player, but I can't see the Colts getting him unless he refuses to play for Philadelphia outright (which doesn't appear likely given his high character and ethical standards).

***
As I do every year, I'll keep a list of prospects the Colts have made contact with. Here's what I have so far (please feel free to add, provide links if you can): Note: Sharp-eyed mrcrayz888 has already been keeping a list and has supplied additions. Thanks.

Corey Fuller WR Virginia Tech (postseason game)
Vance McDonald TE Rice (postseason game)
Ty Powell OLB Harding (postseason game)
Shamarko Thomas S Syracuse (postseason game)
Earl Watford G James Madison (postseason game)
Sylvester Williams DE/DT North Carolina (postseason game)
Luke Marquardt T Azusa Pacific (combine interview)
Wes Horton OLB USC (postseason game/thx mrcrayz888)
Arthur Brown ILB Kansas State (postseason game/thx mrcrayz888)
Datone Jones OLB UCLA (postseason game/thx mrcrayz888)
Christine Michael HB Texas A&M (postseason game/thx mrcrayz888)
Josh Williams OLB Kansas (postseason game/thx mrcrayz888)
Ray Graham HB Pitt (postseason game/thx mrcrayz888)
DJ Fluker T Alabama (postseason game/thx mrcrayz888)
Lane Johnson T Oklahoma (combine interview)

***

I took a Wonderlic for a job last year. Because I'm telling you that, I was pretty proud of my score.

Corner in Round 1?

I'm not at all surprised that the Colts put in a waiver claim for ex-Saints defensive back Johnny Patrick. Nor am I surprised that they were beaten out by San Diego, whose GM is former Colts personnel whiz Tom Telesco.

It's not that Patrick is all that great (he's a dog in man coverage, but has the potential to be solid in the right system, and would probably benefit from a switch to free safety). But it shows that new blood at the position is very much something the Colts are in the market for. It won't be like last season's American Idol-style mass audition, but there will be lots of tire kicking.

Currently, the Colts have four corners under contract (or indentured as an ERFA). One, Vontae Davis, is a solid NFL starter. The other three -- Josh Gordy, Marshay Green and Teddy Williams -- are prospects of varying degrees. Keep an eye on Williams, a Olympic-class sprinter who did not play football in college, but has gone to camp with the Cowboys, played in the UFL and practiced with the Colts.

Other than their own free agents -- injury-prone Jerraud Powers, unpredictable Darius Butler and limited Cassius Vaughn -- the Colts may be shopping the field. The free agent group doesn't excite me, although there are some decent ones, like Bradley Fletcher (who I wanted the Colts to draft back in the day) and maybe Keenan Lewis.

The draft could provide a potential star in the first round (Poyer, Trufant, Banks) or a contributor in the third, but I still think pass rusher and pass protector are bigger needs.

***
People are excited about Jeremy Kelley, the king-sized wide receiver the Colts signed, but I'm reserved until I see something. The guy is huge and an athletic freak, check out his Pro Day numbers:

Height: 6055

Weight: 223

10-yard dash: 1.47

20-yard dash: 2.62

40-yard dash: 4.55

Bench press: 14

Vertical jump: 42

Broad jump: 10’11

20-yard shuttle: 3.89

3-cone drill: 6.60

But he was unable to crack the lineup at Maine (Maine!), where he caught 13 passes and returned one punt in four seasons. Undrafted, he went to my hometown Hamilton Tiger-Cats of the pass-happy CFL and had two receptions for 15 yards. He then went to the Utah Blaze of the Arena League. Although his 19-231-7 receiving line may look pretty impressive, it was only good enough to be sixth on the team, way behind leader Aaron Lesue's 155-1,810-56 or even the inimitable Tysson Poots, who went 108-1,167-30.

I would totally give those numbers a pass if Kelley was coming to football from basketball or, like Williams at corner, track. But he isn't. Four years of college after four years of high school.

I'd love to see him work out in the NFL, but I'm not banking on it. He should concentrate on special teams, and hope the Colts want to keep him for that reason.

***
Just realized the Colts have been in Indy as long as they were in Baltimore.

Dead money

What it would cost against the cap to cut certain Colts veterans:

Samson Satele C $2,133,334
Jerry Hughes OLB $2,112,500
Donald Brown HB $1,015,000
Ben Ijalana G $721,090
Delone Carter HB $212,602

The Colts are already on the hook for $4,973,004 (96.52 percent of it because of Gary Brackett)

Gary Brackett LB $4,800,000
Chris Rucker CB $50,836
Tim Fugger OLB $47,046
Brody Eldridge TE $40,700
Chandler Harnish QB $34,422

Note: Harnish is back with the team, but his pro-rated bonus still counts against the cap because he was cut and re-signed in 2012.

Current roster

Including ERFAs. If anyone has any fixes, changes or comments, please post. To be updated throughout the offseason.

QB

Andrew Luck QB 6’4 234 9/12/1989 23

Chandler Harnish QB 6’2 219 7/28/1988 24

HB

Vick Ballard HB 5’10 219 7/16/1990 22

Donald Brown HB 5’10 210 4/11/1987 25

Delone Carter HB 5’9 225 6/22/1987 25

Deji Karim HB 5’8 209 11/18/1986 26

Alvester Alexander HB 5’11 204 10/17/1990 22

Davin Meggett HB 5’9 215 3/22/1990 22

WR

Reggie Wayne WR 6’0 198 11/17/1978 34

T.Y. Hilton WR 5’10 183 11/14/1989 23

LaVon Brazill WR 5’11 192 3/15/1989 23

Griff Whalen WR 6’1 185 3/1/1990 22

Nathan Palmer WR 5’11 195 4/14/1989 23

Jeremy Kelley WR 6’6 223 6/9/1988 24

Jabin Sambrano WR 5’11 175 3/15/1990 22

TE/FB

Dwayne Allen TE 6’3 255 2/24/1990 22

Coby Fleener TE 6’6 247 9/20/1988 24

Weslye Saunders TE 6’5 270 1/16/1989 24

Dominique Jones TE 6’3 255 8/15/1987 25

Robert Hughes FB 5’11 235 6/21/1989 23

T

Anthony Castonzo T 6’7 305 8/9/1988 24

Jeff Linkenbach T 6’6 311 6/9/1987 25

Bradley Sowell T 6’7 316 6/6/1989 23

Lee Ziemba T 6’6 318 3/29/1989 23

G

Mike McGlynn G 6’4 320 3/8/1985 27

Joe Reitz G 6’7 320 6/9/1985 27

Seth Olsen G 6’5 308 12/17/1985 27

Ben Ijalana G 6’4 317 8/6/1989 23

Robert T. Griffin G 6’6 335 11/22/1989 23

Justin Anderson G 6’4 335 4/15/1988 24

C

Samson Satele C 6’3 300 11/29/1984 28

*AQ Shipley C 6’1 309 5/22/1986 26

DE

Cory Redding DE 6’4 298 11/15/1980 32

Drake Nevis DE 6’1 294 5/8/1989 23

Ricardo Mathews DE 6’3 294 7/30/1987 25

Clifton Geathers DE 6’7 320 12/11/1987 25

Lawrence Guy DE 6’4 304 3/17/1990 22

NT

Josh Chapman NT 6’1 316 6/10/1989 23

Brandon McKinney NT 6’2 345 8/24/1983 29

Martin Tevaseu NT 6’2 325 10/7/1987 25

Kellen Heard NT 6’6 346 10/17/1985 27

OLB

Robert Mathis LB 6’2 245 2/26/1981 31

Jerry Hughes LB 6’2 255 8/13/1988 24

Justin Hickman LB 6’2 265 7/20/1985 27

Jake Killeen LB 6’4 240 2/15/1986 27

Quinton Spears LB 6’4 234 5/11/1988 24

Monte Simmons LB 6’3 226 1/29/1989 24

ILB

Kavell Conner LB 6’0 242 2/23/1987 25

Jerrell Freeman LB 6’0 234 5/1/1986 26

Pat Angerer LB 6’0 235 1/31/1987 26

Mario Harvey LB 6’0 250 8/10/1987 25

A.J. Edds LB 6’4 246 9/18/1987 25

Scott Lutrus LB 6’3 241 4/23/1988 24

Shawn Loiseau LB 6’1 240 10/10/1989 23

CB

Vontae Davis CB 5’11 203 5/27/1988 24

Josh Gordy CB 5’11 195 2/9/1987 26

Marshay Green CB 5’10 175 1/14/1986 27

Teddy Williams CB 6’3 200 7/3/1988 24

S

Antoine Bethea S 5’11 203 7/27/1984 28

Tom Zbikowski S 5’11 200 5/22/1985 27

Joe Lefeged S 6’0 205 6/2/1988 24

Sergio Brown S 6’2 210 5/22/1988 24

Larry Asante S 6’0 210 3/7/1988 24

Delano Howell S 5’11 189 1/1/1900 113

ST

Matt Overton LS 6’0 254 7/6/1985 27

Adam Vinatieri K 6’0 202 12/28/1972 40

* I'm not entirely sure if Shipley is signed or an RFA

A nose tackle in the first round?

A healthy number of mock drafts on the internet are predicting the Colts will draft a nose tackle in the first round. It makes some sense as the incumbent nose tackle, Mookie Johnson, is an unrestricted free agent (and not all that good anyway). To make a 3-4 front work, a quality nose tackle is more than important, it's essential.

But many believe the Colts already have the answer on their roster. They drafted Alabama's Josh Chapman in the fifth round last season, fully aware that he was recovering from a major injury. In fact, he missed his entire rookie season. He's obviously a talent, but is he the answer?

Injury aside, Chapman certainly was capable in college. Like a stone wall against the run, Chapman used his immense strength to dominate blockers, often challenging two at once. Although he was surprisingly quick off the snap, he won't get behind blockers often (he recorded just 2.5 sacks in four years at Bama). In the passing game, his primary purpose is to occupy blockers to let someone else supply pressure. Of course, the usual liabilities with definitive-style nose tackles apply: Chapman won't make many tackles outside the interior line, will rarely stunt effectively, will only fall into sacks and will always be battling his weight.

His technique is good, and he's a selfless player who relishes his role as a wrestler. His experiences at Bama were similar to what the Colts would ask him to do -- spend most of his time as a two-gap nose tackle, shift over to a more traditional one-gap defensive tackle on occasion and get plenty of rest on passing downs.

So if we take out the injury question, Chapman would appear to be a solid nose tackle prospect. There's no doubt he's limited, but in the role he'd be asked to perform, he represents an upgrade over Johnson.

But you can't take away the injury question. It's been well documented that in his third season with the Crimson Tide, he played with a severe labrum injury, and in his fourth, he actually played (at a consistently high level) on a torn ACL.

While that indicates that he is remarkably tough, it also hints that he's injury prone and perhaps that he's damaged goods. A torn ACL is not like Tommy John surgery, you don't heal stronger than you were before. Still, it's not like he's a halfback, making quick cuts.

But he did have the surgery, performed by the justifiably famous Dr James Andrews, more than a year ago (January 2012), and the Colts activated him late last year, hoping he'd be ready to play. He wasn't, but he seems upbeat and his Twitter feed indicates that he fully expects to take the starting job next season.

For insurance, the Colts have Brandon McKinney and Martin Tevaseu. McKinney was signed from the Ravens last offseason, and was expected to be the starter, but he tore his ACL. If he is back to where he was before, he's a similar type of player to Chapman, but bigger and stronger, but even less mobile and not nearly as explosive. Tevaseu is not in the same class as Chapman or McKinney, but is strong for his size. He played extensively as Johnson's backup last season, but was uninspiring. Oh, and there's Kellen Heard.

I think that the Colts will probably be fine, at least capable, at nose tackle when Chapman and McKinney return. Since both have wonky knees, it's a bit of a risk, but what isn't in the NFL?

Unless a Vince Wolfork-level prospect falls to them at No. 24, and they have solutions in hand at more pressing areas like pass rusher and guard, I would recommend the Colts do not invest their first-round pick in a nose tackle.

***

More recent veteran cuts:

Steve Breaston: I used to really like this guy, and he did have a huge season (77-1,006-3) in 2008. He's fallen off since, and I don't see the Colts having much interest in another skinny receiver who, at his best, avoids the middle and is not much help in the red zone. If they wanted that, it'd be easier to re-sign Donnie Avery.

Kevin Boss: Great player a few years back, but concussions have made him unsignable. Not unlike Austin Collie.

David Thomas: The Colts don't go looking for 30-year-old spare parts very often, but Thomas has value as a versatile tight end who can also play slot or even fullback. Thomas is a good route runner with reliable hands, but not a guy who'll split the safeties anymore. A better run blocker than pass blocker, he's more than passable at both. I can't see the Colts inviting him to camp, but I could see them calling him if injuries hit or their other backup options at tight end do not work out.

Johnny Patrick: A third-round pick just a few years back, Patrick was the worst in a bad set of corners in New Orleans last year. On those grounds, I wouldn't touch him (although he would look better in the Colts' scheme than he did in the Saints'). But, considering his tackling ability and skills in zone coverage, I would definitely grab him on the cheap and try to mold him into a free safety. Ah, but that's me. The Colts will probably pass. Late note: Patrick was claimed by the Chargers, whose personnel department is headed by former Colts guy Tom Telesco.

Bart Scott: He was quietly effective last season as an inside linebacker for the Jets, and would probably be the same with the Colts. But I don't see them bringing in a 33-year-old veteran, especially one who's made it clear he'd prefer to return to the Meadowlands.

Josh Baker: Marginal guy with ACL problems, pass.

Jason Smith: Considered one of the biggest busts in draft history, Smith's value now is as a jumbo tight end (extra blocker in short-yardage situations) and, perhaps, as a reclamation project at right tackle. If Joe Gilbert thinks he can bring out the fire in this reluctant dragon, he could be worth a low-cost flyer.

Calvin Pace: The Colts could use a pass rusher, but Pace's glory days are long over.

Eric Smith: Never more than a spot starter and special-teams guy, Smith has some intriguing qualities, but is on the downside of his career. The only scenario I could see him joining the Colts under would be as an injury replacement.

***

Other thoughts:

• I'd be surprised if Nate Palmer does not make the team. A legitimate speedster, he's raw, but has a gift.

Colts fans should check out the 2011 MAC championship in which NIU edged Ohio. Palmer was the MVP with 4-115-2 receiving and 4-17-0 rushing. On the opposing side, LaVon Brazill chipped in 8-124-0 receiving and 1-6-0 rushing. And Palmer was getting his passes from fellow Colt Chandler Harnish, who went 26-16-250-3-1 passing and 13-31-0 rushing.

Oh, and Palmer also sang the anthem before NIU games.

With him, Brazill, Reggie Wayne, TY Hilton and Griff Whalen, it may be difficult for a rookie or free agent to crack the roster. Still, the group lacks size. If a big target who can make yards after the catch appears on the horizon, I could see the team making room for him.

• After writing about the danger of high-buck free agents, a case study of sorts occurred to me. Jake Long is a star player (a former No. 1 pick) who plays at a position of need for the Colts. Not only are the Dolphins not putting a franchise tag ($15.4 million) on him, but they are low-balling him with an offer in the $6 million-$7 million range. If he's right and in the right scheme, he's worth close to double that.

If he's right. Long toughed out an injury-plagued 2012 season (finishing on injured reserve), and there has been some talk that he's already breaking down even though he'll be just 28 at the start of next season. That the Dolphins are not aggressively pursuing him is an indication that they are, at best, taking a wait-and-see strategy with him.

And in the right scheme. Long is a power-forward style tackle, and struggled to adjust when the Dolphins moved to a more movement-oriented approach. That style is a lot closer to what the Colts are likely to play in 2013.

Long will find a home this season, just not likely in Indy.

• So Peyton Manning is trying to sell Dwight Freeney on Denver. Could be a nice match. Another good fit would be the Giants. He's from the area, and would thrive in their defense. There are also rumblings Freeney might end up in Atlanta. It would be a good fit football-wise. Any of the three would give him another chance at a Super Bowl.

The dangers of signing veteran free agents

There seems to be a feeling among Colts fans that because they have a huge amount of money under the cap, they should sign everyone they can as though the NFL was a giant game of Madden. But there are dangers associated with signing free agents, especially older ones, that can manifest themselves down the line. Many a team has been crippled by throwing a huge contract at a guy, and having it not work out. Besides, bringing in an outside player for huge money can not only affect the teams' salary structure, but it can breed resentment.

I'm not against signing free agents, I just think wisdom, even frugality should be applied.

Since the Patriots say they are unwilling to put a franchise tag on Wes Welker, their super slot man of so many years, some Colts fans will be clamoring for their team to sign him. But there are two big red flags and one smaller, sort of yellow-ish one.

The first and most important of the mitigating factors is that Welker has a ton of wear and tear on him. In 140 NFL regular-season games, he has caught 768 passes, ran the ball 19 times and returned 241 punts and 183 kicks. Factor in that the Patriots usually go quite deep into the playoffs and you're looking at a guy who has run a lot of routes and taken a lot of hits. While Welker is certainly tough and has a Franco Harris-like ability to avoid big hits, he's not a big man and hardly a young one.

The other major stumbling block is that, although I would not say that he's the product of the Patriots' system, I would say that he's been very comfortable in it. As a Charger and Dolphin, he was "that Welker kid," not the undisputed king of the slot. Maybe it was just maturity or being given a chance, but it seems to me that Welker would have a hard time recreating that comfort level in another uniform.

And the third, perhaps minor factor is that I think he might not want to come to Indy. He has a bikini model for a wife, he hangs out with 50 Cent, he vacations in Aspen. I'm not sure he'd be excited about relocating to the Midwest (although he is originally from OKC).

Although I'm sure there is some GM willing to open up the vaults for Welker, I don't think it'll be Ryan Grigson. Even so, I think Welker would take a plus-sized pay cut to stay in Foxboro.

The franchise number on Welker is about $11.4M. He won't make that, but is almost certain to eclipse Reggie Wayne's $5.8M annual salary by a wide margin. How do you explain that to a young team whose primary strength is unity?

It's a similar scenario with Ed Reed. The guy's had a stellar, maybe Hall of Fame, career. He's a leader, an athlete and a good guy. So why not?

Well, he's old. Very old by football standards. He'll be 35 in the second week of the 2013 regular season. He's played in 160 games (starting 159) at one of the most grueling and body-destroying positions in football. Although he played well in 2012, Reed began to show his age. Still a whiz in coverage because of his placement, anticipation and encyclopedic knowledge, Reed was flagged more often than usual and made a  habit of missing tackles, particularly in the run game. I would not be surprised if it represented the beginning of a very rapid end to Reed's playing days.

And he's a free safety. The Colts actually have a younger, more effective free safety on their roster in Antoine Bethea. He's set to become an unrestricted free agent after the 2013 season. Obviously, Colts fans don't see Reed as a long-term replacement for Bethea (at least I hope not), so I guess they think he'll play strong safety. It can be argued that the difference is not great, but it still would require a transition on Reed's part. And you have to wonder, would signing Reed push Bethea's price up?

Reed reminds me of Jeff Saturday. After a long and distinguished career as a Colt, he spent one decent but realistically superfluous season with the Packers and has come back to retire with the Colts. Besides the risks of breakdown, erosion of talent and profound salary-structure ramifications, there's one other huge reason not to sign veteran star free agents -- there heart will always belong to another team.

***

Some late-round prospects to discuss:

David Bass OLB Missouri Western D2 sackmaster
Micah Hyde CB Iowa Tough guy who knows zones
David Bakhtiari G Colorado Short, scrappy tackle
Cobi Hamilton WR Arkansas Strong deep threat
Shamarko Thomas SS Syracuse Depth at position pushes him down
Travis Johnson OLB San Jose State Quick sack guy, may be overvalued at this point
Aaron Mellette WR Elon Big kid makes his own yards
Jordan Mills G Louisiana Tech May be drafted higher
JC Tretter G Cornell Small-school standout
Quanterus Smith OLB Western Kentucky Sun Belt sack machine recovering from ACL tear

Freeney, Collie and the Colts

It's all over the internet that the Colts "cut" Dwight Freeney and Austin Collie. The truth is only slightly different: The team has decided not to offer either unrestricted free agent a contract, even though both have publicly stated that they would have preferred to return to the team.

Freeney's exit will create a huge hole for the team. Athough much was made of his measly five sacks in 2012 (Colts fans usually expect 12-16 from him), I would argue that he was the team's best pass rusher last season. While Robert Mathis (and I am here to praise Freeney, not dis Mathis, who is an excellent player) had more sacks (eight), he had fewer QB hits (five to nine) and fewer than half the all-important QB hurries (16 to 33). Looking at it that way, Freeney got behind his man 47 times, while Mathis did just 29 times. That Mathis had more sacks seems to me just the luck of the draw. Keep in mind, though, that Freeney did almost nothing but rush the passer (414 rushes in 436 passing plays), while Mathis had more diverse duties (283 of 351).

It's unlikely the Colts can replace Freeney's production (not to mention leadership, charisma and community value) with a player currently on the roster. The outlaw Jerry Hughes showed great improvement last season (four sacks, six hits and 17 hurries in 304 rushes), but I would be surprised if the Colts think he's what they need at the position. The other guys on the roster are just guys until they prove something.

In free agency, it's all about Paul Kruger for me. I know I have been (rightfully) criticized for being a little too impressed by his performances against the Colts and in the playoffs, but his regular-season numbers are strong. In 359 pass rushes, he netted 10 sacks, 12 hits and 33 hurries. You don't have to run that through a mainframe to know those are good numbers. People have pointed out that: a) Kruger benefited from having Terrell Suggs on the other side, and b) that he never did much until his contract year. I'd respond that: a) he'd have Mathis on the other side in basically the same scheme with the Colts, and b) he was playing behind Jarrett Johnson before last season, and often out-performing him. Even better, the Ravens probably won't have the cap space to keep him, and they have Courtney Upshaw waiting in the wings. Kruger's not Freeney as an overall talent, but is younger and might be a better fit.

As for the draft, I'm holding off too many comments on this most volatile of positions until I see more.

Even if they do adequately replace him on the field, there can't be a single Colt fan who will not miss Freeney.

As for Collie, the shock won't be as great. The Grigson regime seems to have taken his absence into account right from the start. Last year's draftees TY Hilton and LaVon Brazill appear ready to take big steps in their second seasons, as does undrafted rookie slot guy Griff Whalen.

There's been widespread speculation that Collie will join his old pal Peyton Manning in Denver. It wouldn't surprise me at all. Still, I'd prefer if he moved on from the game with his health still mostly intact.

***

It would be an utter tragedy if the Colts let Pat McAfee go. Not only is he about the best at what he does, he is also the fun-loving face of the franchise. While it may be all about Andrew Luck, which would you invite to a party?

The options would be a long-term deal or the franchise tag. Don't be too surprised if the team tags his as a precaution while they work out a deal. The tag would cost about $2.9 million, so even if it came down to that, I think think he's worth it.

***

I don't think the Colts would mount a serious pursuit of Charles Woodson, even though he's still a very good player, because of his age and likely contract demands. And they wouldn't touch Titus Young with a 20-foot pole. He's just not a Colt.

I gotta come up with better headlines

It was interesting to hear was Pep had to say. As far as trick plays and formations are concerned, I wouldn't put too much stock it in. Like the Wildcat. Do you really want to take the ball out of Andrew Luck's hands? Maybe have Vick Ballard tossing it out there? I don't remember that sort of thing happening too often at Stanford.

The last time I remember the Colts doing anything like that was in 1988 when they ran the Wishbone a few times, wisely preferring to let Eric Dickerson and Albert Bentley do their stuff than just to let Chris Chandler, Gary Hogeboom and Jack Trudeau have all the fun.

***

Speaking of the Stanford offense, I see a lot of Colts fans are hoping for a "speed back" to complement Ballard. Again, I don't see it happening. Modern NFL offenses are built with very specific tasks for halfbacks that require certain strengths. In what I like to call the Luck offense, backs must be able to pass block, contribute as receivers and get hard yards on the ground. Those backs are very strong, sometimes at the expense of speed. Let's compare forties of the Colts halfbacks from last season: Vick Ballard 4.52, Donald Brown 4.46, Mewelde Moore 4.65, Delone Carter 4.54 and Deji Karim 4.40. None are true speedsters, though Karim plays fast (and saw a total of zero downs on offense in 2012), and Brown appears to be on his ways out (so does Moore, but it's not related to speed because he never had any).

The primary halfbacks who played in the Luck offense at Stanford fit the same mold: Toby Gerhart (4.50) and Stepfan Taylor (hasn't offically run yet, but I'd peg him at 4.55-4.58). Gerhart is coming off a down season in Minnesota, but is very valuable as Adrian Peterson's backup and as a third-down specialist, so it's unlikely the Vikings would want to part with him in a trade. He is in a contract year, though. Taylor is an excellent fit for the offense, but his stock is rising fast, and it would not surprise me if he's gone before the Colts third-round pick rolls around.

***
Pep's talk led many to believe that the fullback question is answered because he nominated Dwayne Allen (Pro Bowl tight end Dwayne Allen, that is) for the job. Allen is definitely up to it, but I wouldn't mind seeing a  genuine fullback on the roster as well.

A lot of people have mentioned Owen Marecic, a former Stanford Cardinal who has worn out his welcome in Cleveland. I guess it could happen, but I don't think he is a good enough receiver -- he actually dropped all four passes directed at him in 2012 -- to be a Colt. He is a pretty good blocker and special teamer, though.

***

Looking at recent NFL cuts, I see cornerback Terrence McGee. He's pretty old, injury-prone and slow, but is smart and a very good tackler. If his knee checks out okay, he may be able to extend his career as a free safety, but that's a longshot at best.

The Bills also cut safety George Wilson and linebacker Nick Barnett. Wilson's a very good box safety with some coverage skills. He's drawing lots of interest around the league despite being 32. Although he would work well in the Colts' defense, he would not represent an upgrade over incumbent Tom Zbikowki, so the team would be unwise to enter a bidding war for his services. Barnett, a former first-round pick, has been a solid player for years, but failed his physical with the Bills (who just happened to gain $3M in cap space by cutting him). He played well last season, but is a bit light for the Colts. If they have any interest in him at all, they would be wise to check him over thoroughly.

Also available is former Titans linebacker Kevin Malast. More athlete than football player, I don't see how he would fit in Indy.

The biggest name cut recently is receiver Johnny Knox. But he has rather wisely decided to retire.

***

Bleacher Report has a seven-round mock draft. Here's what they have the Colts getting:

1. Alex Okafor LB Texas
3. Sean Porter LB Texas A&M
4. Aaron Dobson WR Marshall
6. Reid Fragel OT Ohio State

I like Okafor, certainly, and pass rusher is a top need. Porter could be a fit inside, but it's really not a need and he's not special enough to transcend that. Dobson is an oustanding pick. Big and strong, he's a great red-zone target and has great YAC ability. Plus he's a great guy. Love this pick. As much as I like Fragel and think the former tight end would be a bargain in the sixth, I think the Colts need an offensive lineman before then.

If you replace Porter with someone like Cal center Brian Schwenke, it'd be a great draft.

More offseason thoughts

I like that the media is giving Drew Stanton some love by claiming Bruce Arians wants to take him to the desert with him. I'm not saying it couldn't happen, but after the years of bad quarterbackery there, fans really don't want to see a guy with a 2-2 record in a possible 96 games brought in as anything more than a backup.

The old adage that if you have two quarterbacks, you have none applies here except that the Cards would just be throwing Stanton on a pile that already includes Kevin Kolb (9-12), John Skelton (8-9), Ryan Lindley (1-3) and, perhaps, Brian Hoyer (0-1). The Cards are looking to restructure Kolb's massive deal, and could easily and cheaply cut ties with Skelton and Hoyer. Kolb's a better fit in Arians' offense than he was in the previous one, but the problem with him has always been his durabilty. The Cards could go into the season with him as the starter, Stanton as the backup and Lindley as the baseball cap guy.

They could, but it wouldn't be an upgrade.

***

A lot of Colts fans are hoping their team drafts huge Alabama tackle DJ Fluker in the first round. Don't count me among them. While there's no doubt Fluker is a first-round talent, he is a bad fit for the Colts. Heavy-footed and slow, his pass blocking is not up to the standard the Colts require at the position, especially when facing speed rushers. Even in the run game, the Colts' offensive scheme requires more motion than I think Fluker is actually capable of. Oklahoma's Lane Johnson, an athletic former quarterback and tight end, would represent a much better choice if he's available. He reminds me a lot of Nate Solder.

A better choice than either would be North Carolina guard Jonathan Cooper, if he's available. Fans tend to undervalue guards, but Cooper is a special one.

***

Most mock drafts I've seen have the Colts selecting a nose tackle prospect in the first round. It makes some sense. Last years' starter, Mookie Johnson, didn't do a great job and is scheduled to become a free agent. That would leave the job to 2012 fifth-round pick Josh Chapman and 2012 free agent signing Brandon McKinney. Neither is a top-notch talent, and both missed 2012 with serious knee injuries.

Barring a trade up, I can't see the Colts snagging Georgia's John Jenkins, but Alabama's Jesse Williams (Chapman's replacement with the Tide) is a realistic target. After him, though, the pickings get slim.

***

If the Colts go for a cornerback in the first round, I'd like to suggest Oregon State's Jordan Poyer. I like the way he plays. Seems a good fit for the Colts (but, in all likelihood, never a No.1), and his arrest doesn't bother me.

Of course, any interest in a corner in the first round would be greatly influenced by the Colts' actions regarding their own free-agent corners (Jerraud Powers, Darius Butler and Cassius Vaughn) and any free agents they may pursue, like Malcolm "Possum" Jenkins.

***

Of course, there is still a strong possibility the Colts could go with a pass rusher even if they re-sign Dwight Freeney or attract a free agent like Paul Kruger.

But the pass-rusher market is incredibly volatile. Look at least year's first round. Who, at this time last year, thought Bruce Irvin (who went 15th), Shea McClellin (19th), Chandler Jones (21st) or Nick Perry (28th) were potential first rounders?

Of course, a lot of water's gonna pass under the bridge before the draft, but I think the Colts can forget about Florida State's Bjoern Warner, Georgia's Jarvis Jones, Texas A&M's Demontre Moore, LSU's Barkevious Mingo, Oregon's Dion Jordan and, after his Senior Bowl breakout, BYU's Ezekiel Ahnsah.

That leaves LSU's Sam Montgomery (8 sacks in 2013), Texas' Alex Okafor (12.5) and maybe Southern Mississippi's Jamie Collins (10) as first-round possibilities. Who knows? A dark horse like Florida State's Cornelius Carradine (11) or Ohio State's John Simon (9) could emerge.