Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Annotated depth chart

QB Manning, Sorgi, Betts, Trafalis
The competition here is for the No. 3; Betts has familiarity with the system on his side, while Trafalis has a bigger arm and more upside. It may all be for naught, though, as the Colts generally keep just two pivots and Sorgi is signed through 2010.

RB Addai, Keith, Hart, Lawton, Dawson, Simpson, Hairston
Keith and Hart will fight for the No. 2 spot, Keith’s faster and a better runner, Hart’s more complete and a better guy. Don’t be surprised if Keith is cut if Hart beats him for the spot outright. Lawton is fighting Santi for his spot, and will have his hands full. The fight for No. 3 back will go to the rest of the guys, each of whom is limited in his own way. Simpson, whose real value is as a return man, has a distinct edge.

WR Harrison, Wayne, Gonzalez, Aromashodu, Hall, Garcon, Roby, Shelton, Jones, Dillon, Burgess, Giguere
The top three are awesome, but confidence in Harrison’s ability to stay in one piece is eroding. Hall is actually competing more with guys like Tamme for reps in the slot than he is with the other WRs; his special-teams value alone could earn him a spot. Garcon’s likely to get a year to learn the ways of the NFL unless he falls flat on his face. Of the rest, Roby’s the most talented receiver, Aromashodu has the best tools and the other guys had better show something — returning kicks would be nice — in camp.

TE Clark, Fletcher, Tamme, Santi, Robinson, Herold
Fletcher, on a one-year deal, could be cut if the youngsters pan out. Tamme is a receiving talent who can’t really block — but neither can Clark or Fletcher, so it’s built into the system — and will be competing with Fletcher, Hall and other for playing time. You can throw Santi into that group too, but since he can actually block, he’s actually fighting Lawton for most of his reps. I wonder how Robinson and Herold felt watching the draft. I hope it pumped them up.

T Ugoh, Diem, Johnson, Federkeil, Toudouze, Hilliard, Marquez
With the new additions inside, I think Johnson goes back to swing tackle backup. He’ll fight off Federkeil, who the team seems to like a lot, and Toudouze and Hilliard, who they seem less excited about. Marquez appears headed for the practice squad and the weight room

G Lilja, Gandy, Pollak, Richard, Elgin, Esera
It’s a free-for-all at right guard, with Pollak the likely winner. If Gandy doesn’t win the job outright, there’s a strong chance he’ll be cut.

C Saturday, Justice, Ross
Saturday probably gets one last go ‘round before he tests the free agency waters. Justice is the favorite to slide into his old spot, but is by no means a lock. It could be Richard, Ross, Elgin or even Gandy or Pollak.

DE Freeney, Mathis, Thomas, Charleston, Howard, Johnson, Ishola, Milan
Other than Freeney and Mathis, none of these guys are safe, although Howard would likely get a year free even if he looked awful in camp. Keep an eye on the competition for jobs here, it will be intense.

DT Brock, Johnson, Pitcock, Dawson, Reid, Ferrell, Foster, Davis, Bradley
The top three are set, though the order could change. Dawson will have a fight on his hands to keep the others from taking his spot. Reid had better convince coaches he’s their best bet on special teams.

OLB Keiaho, Hagler, Session, Guzman, Nande, Senn
Neither starter is durable and Hagler’s a free agent after the season, but Session is probably ready for a starting spot anyway. Guzman’s specialty is pass-rushing and may be moved to DE. The battle between Nande, a better athlete, and Senn, a more productive player, will be fierce. Although his future is inside, Wheeler could figure here too if Guzman moves to DE and injuries mount.

ILB Brackett, Wheeler, Worsley, Adams, Shotwell
Brackett is a productive starter and team leader, but his salary is huge and he’s signed just through 2009. Wheeler was drafted to take over for him, but it almost certainly won’t be this year. The others are playing for reserve spots and should try to excel on specials. Who’s Adams? See below.

CB Jackson, Hayden, Jennings, Hughes, Rushing, Coe, Ratliff, Foster
While there are no All-Pros, there is an embarrassment of wealth when it comes to young, competent players. Hayden and Ratliff are free agents after the season. Hayden is likely to re-sign and Ratliff does not represent the future at the position. Hughes and Coe do. Rushing’s primary value is as a return man, but has proven to be a better DB than anticipated. There are lots of potential returners in camp and his spot is in no way safe. Foster is microscopic by NFL standards, but may be the fastest man in camp and has genuine DB skills.

S Sanders, Bethea, Giordano, Bullitt, Condren, Smith, Silva
Giordano’s on the Colts’ one-year-to-earn-a-contract plan too. He has the talent, but his payday may come elsewhere as the parsimonious Colts play caponomics. Bullitt stepped up last year, but has obvious deficiencies as an all-around player, while Condren is a tremendous athlete who should be better prepared for the NFL after what amounted to a redshirt season in 2007. Smith is smart and slow, while Silva is smarter and even slower.

K Vinatieri, Andrus
Same old story: Andrus has the huge leg, but isn’t consistent on placements. Vinatieri is starting to show his age, but is signed through 2010 and is still a premier kicker.

P Smith, Stanley
Smith is aging and Stanley has the stuff, but Smith is a team leader and an exceptional holder.

LS Snow
He’s not outstanding, but he does the job, is signed through 2012 to a reasonable contract and faces no real competition.

One more to add:

Anthony X. Adams LB Grand Valley State (6016, 234, e4.80): This small-school tackling machine lacks true athleticism, but it’s hard to argue with his production (like 20.5 tackles for a loss as a senior). He hasn’t been tested too much in pass coverage and would probably find it difficult to adjust to the pro game. But it’s hard not to like any linebacker who played a few downs at fullback — including catching a touchdown pass — in the Cactus Bowl.

Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Noobs

Adam Tafralis QB San Jose State (6015, 230, 4.78c): Finally, here’s that athletic quarterback I’ve been begging for! In fact, Trafalis — who rushed for 247-563-7 as a senior — actually played at tight end before he became the team’s starting quarterback. He also had a 32-inch vertical. Trafalis has awesome arm strength, but needs to improve in all aspects of quarterback play, especially reading defenses, checking down under the blitz and avoiding safeties in deep coverage — but at least he’s in the right spot. He’ll battle Josh Betts for the No. 3 spot, if it exists.

Chad Simpson HB Morgan State (5081, 216, 4.42c): Speed, power, wiggle, a nose for the end zone and a lightning-quick first step — what more could you want? Well, vision, route running, blocking skills and soft hands — all of which Simpson lacks. On offense, Simpson could be a moderately successful spot player, especially on draws and stretch plays; but not someone you’d want to expose for very long. More likely, he’ll be given a chance to win the team’s return specialist job, though he may be too much of a long-strider to be effective bringing back punts. On kicks, though, he could be very, very special. He has the ability to be the No. 3 halfback, and could win the return specialist job outright.

Rudy Burgess WR Arizona State (5110, 186, 4.49pd): Look at him as a receiver, and you wouldn’t see a pro prospect. I mean, he does some good things, but really isn’t special enough. But he does have a great deal of ability as a return man. He’s fast and naturally elusive, but will have to prove he can hang onto the ball to take it to the next level. To make the team, he must look much better than the other return prospects.

Charles Dillon WR Washington State (6006, 186, 4.49pd): Dillon never seemed to get into the groove after moving to Washington State after JuCo. But he does have legitimate speed and running ability, and could figure in the return game. I’ve heard that the problem with Dillon at WSU was that he was still concentrating too much on basketball, and not enough on football. If he can straighten that out, he has an outside shot at the roster.

Sam Giguere WR Sherbrooke (5110, 220, 4.35c): Although in an interview with the Canadian Press he didn’t give himself much of a chance to make the team, I wouldn’t be as hard on him. Sure, he played in the equivalent of D4, but Giguere is fast, has good hands and is much stronger than most men his size. He’s gained some bad habits and isn’t the most elusive guy after the catch, but he has NFL ability. A year on the practice squad could help it emerge.

Darren Marquez OT Southern Illinois (6046, 308, 5.02): The story on Marquez is simple: He does everything right, but lacks functional strength. He looks destined for the practice squad. As competitive as he is, he'd hate that, but it's probably the best thing for him.

Dan Davis DT Connecticut (6014, 287, 4.96): Although he never had huge stats, David was a rock for the Huskies, often dominating the line of scrimmage. A hard-hitting mauler, he backs down from no inside wrestling match. Still, he lacks the size and strength to play the way he did in college, Davis will have a shot to flash his speed and athletic ability in Indy. He doesn’t have any real pass-rush moves as yet, but is a strong penetrator against the run. He could make a play for a backup spot.

Colin Ferrell DT Kent State (6005, 293, 4.86pd): Okay, I realize Kent isn’t exactly Michigan, but how many defensive tackles of any size recorded 45.5 tackles for losses, 10.5 sacks and five forced fumbles in just two seasons as a starter? Oh, and did I mention he played nose tackle? Despite facing hordes of blockers, Ferrell was a wrecking crew in opposing backfields, using his quick first step and straight-line speed along with veteran hand use to get by blockers. He could fit very well into the Colts’ interior rotation.

Eric Foster DT Rutgers (6015, 271, e4.85): Quick and strong but undersized edge rusher reminds me a lot of Keyunta Dawson and may well be after his job. He may only weigh 271, but Foster has a low center of gravity, stays low and is bull strong. As long as he doesn’t spend too much time out there, he could be a solid contributor as a pro. He’s a solid citizen and has a non-stop motor. I really think the Davis/Ferrell/Foster/Dawson/Darrell Reid fight for the No. 4 defensive tackle spot will be fascinating.

Curtis Johnson DE Clark College (6025, 242, 4.69c): I know Colts fans will look past his size, marvel at his incredible production and proclaim him a star before training camp opens. But they should consider his so-so tackling, his poor hand usage, his tendency to get fooled on fakes and misdirection and his overpursuit problems. On the plus side of the ledger, he is blisteringly fast for an end and has some natural pass-rush moves. He’s in the right city, but his success is not guaranteed. He’ll have to look great to force his way onto the roster.

Jordan Senn OLB Portland State (5111, 224, 4.53pd): Look at those numbers and you’ll see a strong safety. Look at him on film and you’ll see a Will. Seriously, I think Senn (despite his size) has the ability to play outside linebacker at the NFL level, maybe not as a starter, but definitely as a contributor. Although he didn’t see the greatest competition at Portland State, Senn showed every quality you’d want to see in a linebacker prospect, except size. He’ll have lots of competition, but could make it. With strong special-teams play, he could stick.

Brandon Foster CB Texas (5075, 185, 4.28 pd): Foster was a solid defensive back for the Longhorns, making a name for himself as a big hitter despite his size. He’s pretty good in man and zone coverage, but can be pushed a round by even the meekest receivers. If he does see the field on defense in the NFL, it will most likely be in a special situations. But he does have a real future as a return specialist, even though he did not return kicks or punts in Austin. He does have 4.28 speed and, one the rare times he has touched the ball — 4-115-2 interceptions and 1-20-1 fumble returns, he has been almost impossible to catch. He’s tough, smart (has a degree and is a well-spoken young man) and an all-around solid guy. I’m rooting for him, but with lots of solid cornerbacks ton the team and a lot of competition for the return job, he has his work cut out for him.

Jamie Silva SS Boston College (5103, 202, 4.85c): I’ve seen this guy play and, if you asked me what his 40 was, I would have said 4.60, so I was shocked to see him run a 4.85 at the combine. Polian himself said much the same thing and compared Silva to former Colt Chad Cota, who was a successful player, despite a similar lack of timed speed. Others have compared him to Pat Tillman — and football people are very careful before they drop that name. The kid can flat-out play. He stops the run, he blitzes, he covers, he lays the wood and he makes turnovers. While he may not have the speed to play very often on defense, he could become a special-teams stalwart.

In other news:
• With all the new interior o-line guys on hand, it looks like Charlie Johnson is back at tackle
• Did you notice Colts.com is now refering to "defensive end Ramon Guzman"? Coltplay predicted that move weeks ago.

Sunday, April 27, 2008

The rest of them

Okay, mock if you will my utter lack of correct predictions, but if you anticipated the Colts drafting three centers and two tight ends, then my hat, good sir or madam, is off to you.

To recap the second day:

3/93 Philip Wheeler LB Georgia Tech (6017, 248, 4.76c/4.66pd): Let’s hope this stops the belief the Colts are only interested in 220-pound linebackers. Actually, it might not for a while. See, Wheeler started his career with the Jackets as a defensive end, and is maybe the best blitzer available in this draft. Combine that with the dogmas that the Colts love undersized defensive ends and never blitz their linebackers (1) and you’ll have the pundits espousing conspiracy theories about how Wheeler will have his hand down. Don’t believe it. He’s a swing backup this year and the eventual replacement for Gary Brackett in the middle. He’ll need to work on his zone coverage skills before that happens, but it will.

4/127 Jacob Tamme TE Kentucky (6034, 236, 4.58c): There’s not a lot to say about this guy you haven’t already read in draft books. Ex-wide receiver bulked up to play tight end, but didn’t lose any of his skills — but didn’t gain any either. Tamme has great hands, nice routes and good speed for the position, but blocks like a turnstile. Think of him as very much in the Dallas Clark/Bryan Fletcher mode — not quite as good as Clark, but better than Fletcher — and expect him to be used much the same way, as a slot man, H-back, in motion, occasional fullback and traditional tight end. That’s a lot for a rookie, even a smart one like Tamme (2), to handle. Expect him to blossom in 2009.

5/161 Marcus Howard DE Georgia (6004, 237, 4.45c): Ugh, here’s a guy I had in every mock until the last. If you’re not a regular Coltplay reader, you’ll find Howard’s description in the OLB section, but in Indy, you’ll see him on the field at DE. A natural-born pass rusher (3), Howard just happens to be much smaller than what most people think a defensive end should be. The Colts hope to prove conventional wisdom wrong — again. Howard often draws comparisons to Colts star Robert Mathis and they are similar players. While Josh Thomas would still do the heavy lifting if Mathis or Dwight Freeney were to go down again, Howard would then become a the designated third-down pass rusher. He could eventually take a starter’s job, but it’s not likely. Howard does have some zone coverage ability, but it won’t lead the Colts to shift him to linebacker. More likely, it will allow them to integrate the zone blitz into their defense more often (4).

6/196 Tom Santi TE Virginia (6024, 250, 4.80c): Although he was a productive receiver for the Cavs, Santi doesn’t have the speed, agility or explosiveness to see the ball all that often in the NFL. Instead, he will mostly do the jobs — blocking mainly, but some dump-offs — that Clark, Fletcher and Tamme won’t. You’ll see Santi all over the field, but usually at the end of the line or at fullback. His selection does not bode at all well for Luke Lawton.

6/201 Steve Justice C Wake Forest (6033, 293, 5.24c/5.25pd): While Pollak has been accused of not playing up to his ability, Justice seems to play well beyond his. He’s often compared to Tom Nalen, but I see him more as a Mark Setterstrom type. An accomplished pass blocker who should work on his angles in run blocking, Justice is more likely to stay at center and inherit Jeff Saturday’s spot than Pollak because he’s much better at shotgun snaps. Unlikely many of this year’s draft picks, I see an eventual starter here.

6/202 Mike Hart HB Michigan (5087, 206, 4.69c): If you value production over triangle numbers, here’s your guy. Michigan’s all-time leading rusher, Hart used brilliant technique, razor-sharp execution and the heart of a lion to overcome his size/speed issues in college. Whether or not that will work in the pros remains to be seen. Hart will get a legitimate shot at the No. 2 halfback job, pitting him against talented but limited and not-all-that-disciplined Kenton Keith. I was beginning to get excited about this clean Marine until Polian compared him to former Colt James Mungro — then my heart sank. But from my film study, I see a Kevin Faulk-type — he can do it all and has a strong nose for the end zone, but lacks the breakaway ability to be a big-time back.

6/205 Pierre Garcon WR Mount Union (5117, 210, 4.42c): If you’ll forgive my glibness and oversimplification, Garcon is the polar opposite of Hart. A ridiculously gifted athlete, Garcon plowed his way through D3 without actually learning how to run a route or beat a jam. He won’t be able to do that in the NFL. Still, he has the overall talent to develop into something better, and any wide receiver who blocks is okay in my book. He could figure in the competition for a return role, but is a bit of a long-strider to be a real impact guy there. If I were him, I’d try to impress as a coverage gunner, then try to earn a job elsewhere.

7/236 Jamey Richard C Buffalo (6046, 296, 5.22c/5.03pd): And here I was thinking they were in Buffalo to look at Trevor Scott! Actually, because I’m here in Toronto, I’ve seen real live tape of this guy. And the first thing I’ve seen is that he’s a very, very smart player who understands what defenses are trying to do to disrupt offenses. And — to continue on the intelligence theme — he uses his hands like a guy who’s been playing in the NFL for years. He’s not a naturally explosive athlete and will need extensive coaching to get rid of all that lean and grab, but I see a nice future for this kid.

It’s a good haul.

Notes:
1. Actually, they almost never do, but Wheeler could change that. Like all good coaching staffs, they adjust to who they have.
2. Dude earned a four-year degree in three years and was still a full-time football player — where do they find the time?
3. And Polian rather famously has said we can never have enough of them
4. This I would like to see. Disagree? I have three words — Bullet Bob Sanders

Saturday, April 26, 2008

Pollak

It's hard not to like the Colts top pick. Mike Pollak C Arizona State (6034, 299, 4.99c) is a smart, athletic center who's a great pass blocker. And unlike so many at his position, he can read defenses and pick up blitzes with aplomb. He could use better conditioning and more strength, but is a player to be reckoned with and will be a solid NFL starter for many years.

I think they'll throw him right into the Dylan Gandy/Charlie Johnson competition at right guard, then have him take over for Jeff Saturday at center in 2009. Not the most exciting pick, but a damn good one.

Pre-draft roster run-down

Quarterback: Peyton Manning is the starter as long as he is ambulatory. Considering his conditioning and will, that could be another seven or even more seasons. Backup Jim Sorgi is signed through 2010, but the Colts would probably like to get some competition or an eventual replacement for him.
Runningback: Joseph Addai firmly is entrenched as the starter, but had major durability problems at LSU. Kenton Keith is an excellent runner, but so-so as a receiver and blocker, and he also has a history of behavioral problems and fumbles. Fullback Luke Lawton is a fan favorite, but far from irreplaceable.
Wide receiver: Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez are grade-A starters, as is Marvin Harrison, but Harrison was drafted when Bob Dole still thought he could be president. (1) Harrison missed a big part of last season and his frail frame may not be able to hold up much longer. Behind them are Devin Aromoshodu (career 7 catches) and Roy Hall (career 0 catches). Both of them look like NFL wide receivers, but have yet to play like them. (2)
Tight end: Dallas Clark is an awesome tight end if you like king-sized wideouts at the position. Bryan Fletcher is Clark-lite, and an unrestricted free agent next season.
Tackle: Tony Ugoh has Pro Bowl potential, but may have durability issues. Ryan Diem is not Pro Bowl material and definitely has durability issues. The top guys behind the starters are the oft-cut Daniel Federkeil and the even-more-oft-cut Michael Toudouze. (3) Keep in mind Diem makes a truckload of money.
Guard/center: Ryan Lilja and Jeff Saturday are very good, and whoever wins the epic Dylan Gandy/Charlie Johnson battle will probably be okay at the other guard spot. Saturday will be an old, highly paid unrestricted free agent after the season. There are other people there too.
Defensive end: Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are huge pass-rushing stars who are signed for a long time. Josh Thomas is an okay No. 3 if he’s not out there for too long.
Defensive tackle: Undersized, under-rated and efficient. The trio of Raheem Brock, Ed Johnson and Quinn Pitcock get the job done, and are occasionally spelled by even smaller Keyunta Dawson.
Outside linebacker: I really like all four of the top guys — Freddie Keiaho, Tyjuan Hagler, Clint Session and Ramon Guzman — but there are caveats. Both Keiaho and Hagler have had durability issues in the past and Guzman (who’s no whiz in coverage) could find himself playing more defensive end than linebacker. There’s a distinct possibility Rob Morris, who’s better than most think, could be back, but he's really more of a special-teams player.
Inside linebacker: Gary Brackett gets the job done and is an inspirational leader, but he’s the type of guy teams are always trying to replace — especially since he makes about $3 million a year and is an unrestricted free agent after the 2009 season. The depth here is such that Keiaho would probably replace him. And if he went down, Hagler would replace him.
Cornerback: Polian said yesterday you can always use another corner, but I see no fewer than seven players at the position who can play in the NFL. Starter Kelvin Hayden will be an unrestricted free agent next season, but I think the Colts will lock him up this year or plug Tim Jennings, Dante Hughes or even Michael Coe into his spot.
Safety: The starters (Bob Sanders and Antoine Bethea) are awesome and the third guy (Matt Giordano) isn’t far behind. Sophs Brannon Condren and Melvin Bullitt provide enviable depth.
Special teams: Both Adam Vinatieri and Hunter Smith are fine, but elderly; and Polian will never give up on his quest for a kickoff specialist. Justin Snow is still a good long-snapper, but he’s getting up in years too. Polian gave TJ Rushing something of a half-assed vote of confidence yesterday — that should scare him a little.

Notes:
1. His next stop is Canton
2. Even if he never catches a pass, Hall has great special-teams value
3. I didn't mention Charlie Johnson because Polian said he'd be competeing for a job at guard. It's a move that lessens the talent at both positions.

In other news:
• Pay no attention to media tales of Colts interest in guys like Shaun Alexander, Jason Taylor and Rosevelt Colvin. It's hogwash. The Colts have signed two "name" free agents in the past few years — Corey Simon and Booger McFarland — and how'd that work out? Did you know that the Colts are the only team in the NFL with all 22 starters who have never played for another team? They really, really would prefer to build through the draft.
Pat Sims DT Auburn (6021, 310, 5.06c) said on Siurius Radio that the Colts are interested in him. I'll bet $100 they don't draft him.

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Updated mock*

2/59 Donnie Avery WR Houston (5110, 192, 4.43c/4.33pd) Marvin Harrison's heir and an explosive return specialist all in one player — a star in the making
3/93 Jo-Lonn Dunbar ILB Boston College (6004, 231, 4.79c/4.85pd) Something makes me think this under-rated tackling machine will be a great pro
4/127 Kerry Brown T Appalachian State (6053, 308, 5.38) Kid is already a polished pass-blocker, they'll teach him the rest
5/161 Thomas Brown HB Georgia (5083, 204, 4.51c/4.42pd) The team needs a No.2 halfback and this kid does everything well, except stay in one piece
6/196 Mackenzy Bernardeau G Bentley (6041, 306, 5.25pd) Small-school star could be an All-Pro with coaching; incredible potential if he works at it
6/201 Michael Peterson TE Northwest Missouri State (6021, 247, 4.59) I'd like a blocker, but after the Ben Hartsock debacle, I think they'll go with this small-school pass-catcher and try to teach him to block
6/202 Andy Studebaker DE Wheaton College (6030, 251, 4.61) This kid's quickness off the snap is something to behold; he's a lottery ticket — big win or small loss
6/205 Curtis Johnson DE Clark-Atlanta (6025, 242, 4.69c/4.60pd) Johnson's insurance in case Studebaker bombs, could also be given a shot at Sam (where he's played in the past), he has the wheels
7/236 Bernard Morris QB Marshall (6030, 223, 4.68c/4.61pd) The athletic quarterback I've been crying for since the Ricky Turner days; this probably won't happen, I just want it to

Also, keep an eye on:
QB Blake Mitchell
HB Jalen Parmele
HB Justin Beaver
WR Luke Swan
WR Pierre Garcon
TE Paul Cleaver
T Anthony Collins
T John Greco
C Mike Martinez
LB Joe Mays
LB Danny Lansanah
LB Weston Dacus
S Joe Fields
S Curtis Cutts
K Dan Ziedman (kickoff specialist)

*with some anonymous insider info

I wouldn't put too much stock in ESPN's speculation that the Colts are interested in Shaun Alexander. Houston is a more likely spot.

• So Marcus Pollard's a Pat. They do have knack for getting the most out of players who are beyond their sell-by date, but I don't he'll be haunting the Colts or the Seahawks in the next few seasons.


Tuesday, April 22, 2008

More confusion, as usual

With tough draft-day decisions looming, the Colts re-signed all of their remaining restricted free agents. With guard Dylan Gandy, tight end Bryan Fletcher and defensive tackle Darrell Reid back in the fold, it changes the landscape — but not actually all that much.

Gandy’s the important one, because the Colts are expecting him to step in and take over Jake Scott’s old spot at right guard. (1) He’s not a great (or even passable) run blocker, but he’s a decent stop-gap starter for a team that is well known for developing mid-range draft choices into top-of-the-line starters. A better fit as a swing backup at guard and center, Gandy's probably just keeping the seat warm for a rookie.

Fletcher’s the No. 2 tight end for now, but wasn’t he No. 3 last year? I don’t want to dis Fletcher, but I really don’t think he’s what the team needs at the position right now. Kid can catch the ball — we all know that — but he’s not really the blocker required to complement Dallas Clark. He’ll fight a draft pick for playing time, trust me. Look for the Colts to grab a guy like Maryland's Joey Haynos who can help the running game and allow Clark (and/or Fletcher) go in motion or split wide.

Reid? I’ve never been as much of a fan as most followers of the Colts. Neither a run stopper nor a pass rusher (more of a spare part) as a defensive lineman, he’s made his name as a special teamer. But while his big hits on coverage teams often show up on ESPN, his whiffs don’t. I don’t resent Reid being on the team, but I don’t rejoice, either.

So how does this affect the draft? Gandy’s (expected) return makes the hole at guard less deep. I still think the need for a long-term starter is there, but they can get by with Gandy. Recent moves have led me to believe that the Colts will actually draft a slot receiver/return specialist first rather than an offensive lineman, so it looks like Gandy’s safe — for now. The same is true with Fletcher. He’s not really who you want there, but you can get by with him. As far as Reid is concerned, I think his re-signing has very little affect on the draft as he doesn’t really figure much in the team’s plans on defense. The Colts’ defensive tackles are Raheem Brock, Ed Johnson and Quinn Pitcock. The fourth guy — somehow — is Keyunta Dawson. A rookie may change that, but Reid won’t.

• So Kenton Keith was arrested at a nightclub. From what I’ve learned it seems like a few youthful hi-jinks and some ego got in the way of law enforcement. At least that’s what I’d think if I wasn’t already aware of the shenanigans he’d gotten up to in Nebraska and Saskatchewan. Keith showed some flash as a rusher last season, but did nothing as a blocker and receiver. If he wanted to keep his hold on the No. 2 halfback position, co-operating with the cops probably would have been a good place to start. I was pretty sure the Colts were going to spend a mid-range pick on a halfback — now I have no doubt.

• Gino, one of the most informed of all Colts fans I have ever spoken with, asked me what I thought of the idea of the Colts trading up (perhaps using one of their four sixth rounders). Well, I gotta say that in his history of running drafts in Buffalo, Carolina and Indy, Bill Polian has very rarely traded up with his top pick and very frequently traded down. (2)

But take heart, Gino and others, since Polian and the Colts generally target players other teams are not as high on — like Bob Sanders, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis — trading down makes perfect sense.

• One more hat thrown into the Colts' ring. The team flew Allen Ervin HB Lambuth (5106, 226, e4.55) in for a private workout. A huge part of the Eagles' offense (104-1,033-14 rushing as a senior), Ervin uses his superior quickness and vision to break free. Although he's big, he tends to like to take everything outside, but he may not be able to in the pros. (3) Although not especially fast, he has good playing speed and is very elsuive in the open field. He hasn't been used much as a receiver and is not a factor as a blocker, especially when it comes to blitz pickup. The Colts' interest in him more likely stems from his ability as a kick returner (25-685-1 as a senior).

Notes:
1. At this point, he has to be considered the only viable in-house option.
2. Before you mention Tony Ugoh, keep in mind he was a second round pick traded for the next year’s first, so that’s technically a trade-down.
3. I'm always wary of big backs in college, especially in smaller schools. It's just a fact that college players are not as big and strong as the pros and a big back who makes his bread'n'butter mowing 'em down is often stood up and pushed back once he reaches the NFL. Case in point? Ron Dayne. Ervin relies much less on his size than many backs of similar stature do, though.

Friday, April 18, 2008

One more into the fray for the top pick

Now there’s another competitor for the Colts’ top pick and he’s no offensive lineman — not by at least 100 pounds. Donnie Avery WR Houston (5110, 192, 4.43c/4.33pd) is considered by many the most explosive and perhaps the fastest player in the entire draft. Seriously, pay no attention to his combine 40 — although 4.43 isn’t bad, he ran it with a pulled hamstring. Take a look at his other workout numbers. I like his 37.5-inch vertical and his 1.45 ten-yard split, but I am totally wowed by his 6.30 three-cone (the next best was Harry Douglas’ 6.57) and his 16 reps in the bench. But he is no workout warrior. In four years as a Cougar, he recorded 210-3,289-19 receiving (91-1,456-7 as a senior), 40-896-1 kick returns and 3-28-0 punt returns. (1) I’ve seen the guy play plenty of times and he’s pretty much everything you want in a wide receiver — great routes, hands, vision courage etc — except those things that require size — getting of the line and blocking. I think he’ll be a great pro, especially if the team that gets him knows to keep him moving and away from big, bad corners. The Colts are that kind of team, and they are looking for a return specialist …

Oh, and remember Mike Czerwien, the super-productive defensive end whose college claimed he was just 5-foot-8 and 225 pounds? Well, I called the school to find out how big he really is. The AD was away on business, and the woman who answered his phone didn’t know exactly how big Czerwien was. She paused; I pressed on. (2) So she asked around and everyone in the athletic department agreed — yup, Czerwien is 5’8, 225 but a hell of a player. Hmmm, I would expect that would limit his professional prospects just a little. While I have no doubt that he could earn a paycheck on an NFL special-teams crew, I have some trepidations about lining him up across from Joe Thomas. Maybe he could play outside linebacker or safety. Maybe, It’ll be interesting to see.

Notes
1. He even recorded a TFL
2. I’ve been writing for a very, very long time and was an editor in New York, I won’t be stalled, baby

Thursday, April 17, 2008

Small man, small school, huge production

Okay, I know the Colts have a reputation for giving chances to undersized players, but this is just ridiculous. They held a private workout with Mike Czerwien DE Waynesburg (5080, 225, e4.55). Yup, 5'8. Yeah, and Waynesburg.

When a player is either small or went to a small school (Wayneburg is D3), he had better produce. Let's take a look at Czerwien's stats to see if he did:

2007: 61 tackles, 29 assists, 34.5-199 TFL, 23-173 sacks, 5 PBU, 1 forced fumble
2006: 43 tackles, 25 assists, 18.5-74 TFL, 11-62 sacks, 1 forced fumble, 1-0-0 fumble recovery, 1 blocked kick
2005: 34 tackles, 29 assists, 17-76 TFL, 9.5-55 sacks, 1 forced fumble 1-6-0 fumble recovery, 1 blocked kick
2004: 33 tackles, 19 assists, 17-96 TFL, 10-76 sacks, 2 PBU

Okay, the guy is a man among boys. Speed and power (despite his size) off the edge and just an ability to play football.

To tell you the truth, I have seen almost nothing of this kid. I'll call his AD tomorrow to find out a little more about him. Stay tuned.



Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Manning to Manningham?

A new hat’s been thrown into the Colts’ top pick ring. Of all people, Mario Manningham WR Michigan (5116, 181, 4.59c/4.42pd) told Sirius Radio that he enjoyed some time with the Colts representatives. The reasons that’s surprising is that it would be a shock if Manningham was still available when the Colts’ first pick arrives at No. 59, and that few observers would agree that wideout is the Colts’ most pressing need.

But there are a few mitigating factors involved here. The first is that the Colts actually do need another wide receiver. The team plays three-wide more often than any team in the league. And while they have three awesome receivers in Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez, (1) Harrison is on his last legs. Gonzalez appears good enough to fill his shoes, but that leaves an open spot that has been a sore point for the team since Brandon Stokely broke down. (2) Roy Hall is on the roster, but any contributions from him other than special-teams tackles would surprise me; he’s certainly not ready to play a starter’s number of snaps in the NFL.

And Manningham, who some rated as the top wide receiver in this draft some months ago, has fallen on some hard times. Or at least has done some things that have affected his draft status negatively. The first was when he ran a 4.59 forty at the combine. Manningham’s a small guy whose specialty in college was running away from people — it was important that he recorded a good time and he didn’t. Of course, he later ran a 4.42 at his pro day, but scouts won’t forget his combine times and the discrepancy begs the question: If he can’t get it up for the combine, what does he need to be motivated?

Then he admitted to failing at least two marijuana tests in college. Now it’s not Coltplay’s place (or desire) to start a debate on marijuana use or legality, but in pure football terms, it doesn’t seem to be a huge deal. Marijuana is common to the point of ubiquity on college campuses and the overwhelming majority of players associated with its use have shown no ill effects. (3) Look at Warren Sapp. He was considered if not the first pick in the 1995 draft, then no worse than third. A rumor — just a rumor, mind you — connected him to weed and he fell to No. 12 and a Hall of Fame-worthy career. Some of the “clean” players drafted before him? Ki-Jana Carter, Michael (not Brian) Westbrook, Mike Mamula and JJ Stokes. To put it in purely pragmatic terms, his admission of a few puffs doesn’t worry me as much as his combine 40.

As a player, there’s a lot to like about Manningham. He runs excellent, precise routes, has superb hands and rare concentration. He played much bigger than his size in college, but some scouts believe he won’t be able to muscle his way around the pros like he did in college. Still, it’s hard to argue with his 72-1,174-12 receiving as a senior.

I don’t think the Colts will have to worry about whether to pick Manningham or not, because it’s very unlikely he’ll be available when they’re up. But if he is still around, he may just be too hard to pass up.

Of course, the team looked at some other guys as well:

Joe Mays ILB North Dakota State (5110, 245, 4.87) is constantly compared to London Fletcher-Baker, the Redskins’ outstanding middle linebacker who is about the same size as Mays, has a similar playing style and also attended a small school. Like Fletcher-Baker, Mays pursues from sideline-to-sideline, is an effective wrap-up tackler and a pretty good blitzer. In the Texas vs. the Nation game, he always appeared to be around the ball, and showed how effective he is at shedding blocks and distributing jarring hits. His feet always seem to be moving and he’s almost impossible to knock down. But Mays is not Fletcher-Baker’s equal in pass coverage and would be unlikely to compete for a starting job in the NFL unless he improves in that area. Even if he doesn’t, he would probably stick as a spot starter, key backup and special-teams contributor. Most wil disagree, but I think it’ll take a sixth- maybe even a fifth-round pick to get him.

Shawn McMakin G Hofstra (6030, 287, e5.25) is yet another Hofstra player they like. This one is a greatly undersized, but smart and athletic lineman. He played left tackle as a senior simply because he was the team’s best pass-protecter, but would shift back to his more natural guard position in the pros. An all-around good kid, McMakin plans to be a lawyer if the NFL doesn’t pan out.

In other news, the Seahawks signed former Colts punter Reggie Hodges. I always thought Hodges was NFL quality and am glad he’s getting a chance to compete against someone other than Hunter Smith.

Notes:
1. All first-round picks, too.
2. Yes, yes, Dallas Clark has been very effective in his spot — and he was split wide or in the slot on far more plays last year than he played tight end — but then who would play tight end now that Ben Utecht is gone?
3. Before you bring up Ricky Williams, I’d posit that smoking weed is among the least of his mental/emotional/character problems.

Saturday, April 12, 2008

Complications

Just after I shoot my mouth off about how the Colts will draft an offensive lineman first, Bill Polian throws a little doubt in there.

The Colts worked out Tavares Gooden ILB Miami (6012, 234, 4.62c/4.57pd) — a player very much worth their top pick. He's an awesome athlete who makes plays all over the field, is adept in coverage, an explosive wrap-up tackler and ... actually, it's easier to ennumerate what's wrong with him than what's right:

1. Doesn't bring much size: Not a problem for the Colts
2. Not a natural pass-rusher: So? The Colts blitz their linebackers less often than any other team in the NFL
3. Can be fooled on fakes and misdirection: Few can't be; good coaching should solve this
4. Has history of hip and shoulder injuries and some have questioned his toughness: Now those are real problems

Many teams are, according to the media, projecting him outside; but that would be a huge mistake. At Miami, Gooden was a decent OLB, but a star at ILB.

If the Colts are satisfied he's tough enough, Gooden could well be their top pick. Still, I;d rather see that lineman.

They also looked at Pierre Garcon WR Mount Union (5117, 210, 4.42). He's big, strong, fast and superproductive (202-3,363-47 receiving, 19-176-4 rushing and 20-491-1 kick returns in three seasons). The problem is that those three seasons occcured at a D3 school, where he got by on sheer athleticism, and never learned to run proper routes, square his cuts or beat consistent jams. He has the tools to be an NFL receiver — though he may be a bit of a long strider to gain consistent separation from the slot — but the learning curve will be quite a hump.

Friday, April 11, 2008

About frickin' time

The Colts today announced they re-signed safety Matt Giordano. They didn't give any details about the new contract, but I hope it's for a few years at least.

Lookie-loos

Here's a look at the players I've found out the Colts have shown an interest in; listed by the round the Internet "experts" predict they'll be drafted:

QB
7th/Bernard Morris QB Marshall (6030, 223, 4.68c/4.61pd)
7th/Blake Mitchell QB South Carolina (6022, 207, 4.78)
UDFA/Craig Hormann QB Columbia (6041, 228, 5.03)
UDFA/Mark Nicolet QB Hillsdale (6013, 220, 4.84)
RB
4th/Jalen Parmele HB Toledo (5114, 224, 4.47)
5th/Thomas Brown HB Georgia (5083, 204, 4.51c/4.42pd)
7th/Alley Broussard HB Missouri Southern State (6002, 235, 4.75pd)
UDFA/Justin Beaver HB Wisconsin-Whitewater (5081, 196, 4.41)
UDFA/Kareem Huggins HB Hofstra (5087, 185, 4.47)
UDFA/Allen Ervin HB Lambuth (5106, 226, e4.55)
WR
2nd/Mario Manningham WR Michigan (5116, 181, 4.59c/4.42pd)
2nd/Donnie Avery WR Houston (5110, 192, 4.43c/4.33pd)
3rd/Eddie Royal WR Virginia Tech (5095, 184, 4.39)
5th/Marcus Smith WR New Mexico (6013, 221, 4.50c/4.54pd)
6th/Luke Swan WR Wisconsin (5117, 195, 4.59)
UDFA/Jayson Foster WR Georgia Southern (5071, 169, 4.41)
UDFA/Pierre Garcon WR Mount Union (5117, 210, 4.42pd)
UDFA/James Banks WR Carson-Newman (6025, 210, 4.58)
UDFA/Tommy Ellingworth WR Augustana (5101, 183, 4.42)
TE
5th/Joey Haynos TE Maryland (6075, 259, 4.87c/4.79pd)
7th/Michael Peterson TE Northwest Missouri State (6021, 247, 4.59)
UDFA/Paul Cleaver TE New Mexico State (6035, 243, 4.63)
UDFA/Joe Reitz TE Western Michigan (6061, 261, e4.85)
OL
2nd/Gosder Cherilus T Boston College (6063, 314, 5.14c/5.00pd)
2nd/John Greco T Toledo (6046, 305, 5.31c/5.16pd)
3rd/Anthony Collins T Kansas (6055, 317, 5.54c/5.35pd)
7th/Kerry Brown G Appalachian State (6053, 308, 5.38)
7th/Mackenzy Bernardeau G Bentley (6041, 306, 5.25pd)
UDFA/Mike Martinez C New Mexico State (6037, 335, e5.30)
UDFA/Shawn McMakin G Hofstra (6030, 287, e5.25)
DL
3rd/Marcus Howard DE Georgia (6004, 237, 4.47c)
6th/Titus Brown DE Mississippi State (6024, 246, 4.86c/4,82pd)
6th/Jeremy Geathers DE UNLV (6021, 256, 4.97c/4.74pd)
7th/Jameel McClain DE Syracuse (6006, 249, 4.73pd)
7th/Andy Studebaker DE Wheaton College (6030, 251, 4.61)
UDFA/Curtis Johnson DE Clark-Atlanta (6025, 242, 4.69c/4.60pd)
UDFA/Dan Davis DT Connecticut (6014, 287, 4.96)
UDFA/Shemiah LeGrande DT Hofstra (6001, 288, e5.00)
UDFA/Mike Czerwien DE Waynesburg (5080, 225, e4.55)
LB
3rd/Tavares Gooden ILB Miami (6012, 234, 4.62c/4.57pd)
4th/Jo-Lonn Dunbar ILB Boston College (6004, 231, 4.79c/4.85pd)
5th/Joe Mays ILB North Dakota State (5110, 245, 4.87)
6th/Weston Dacus ILB Arkansas (6011, 237, 4.60)
6th/Danny Lansanah ILB Connecticut (6005, 251, 4.72)
7th/Jon Banks OLB Iowa State (6024, 220, 4.76)
UDFA/Jordan Senn OLB Portland State (5114, 224, 4.53)
UDFA/Jonna Lee ILB Charleston Southern (6011, 243, e4.85)
UDFA/Gian Villante ILB Hofstra (6016, 234, 4.64)
DB
4th/Tyrell Johnson SS Arkansas State (5117, 207, 4.41)
5th/Jack Williams CB Kent State (5090, 186, 4.43c/4.32pd)
UFDA/Joe Fields FS Syracuse (6002, 205, e4.60)
UFDA/Curtis Cutts FS Central Michigan (5117, 216, 4.62):
UFDA/Dowayne Davis SS Syracuse (5113, 202, 4.46)
ST
7th/Piotr Czech K Wagner College (6044, 212)
UFDA/Dan Zeidman P Idaho State (6003, 205, 4.78)

Thursday, April 10, 2008

Linemen are coming

A knowledgeable friend told me the other day he agreed with me that the Colts’ top pick will be an offensive lineman. For those not yet on board, here are my reasons:

They lost Jake Scott: Long derided as the team’s fifth-best lineman, he was still very good. The Titans did not pay Scott just short of $20 million because he’s a bad player. Never truly dominant, but always competent, (1) Scott gave an honest day’s work and always played with intelligence and surprising leg drive. His ability to slide over to right tackle when necessary will also be missed.
Dylan Gandy may not be the answer: People have already penciled him in as a starter, but there’s a reason Scott kept this 2005 fourth-rounder on the bench for three years (2) — he was a better player. Gandy is an NFL quality pass protector (2.5 sacks allowed and one hold in 14 starts), but is nowhere near Scott’s equal as a run blocker. And that’s really the part of the offensive line that needs improvement. Besides, he's still an unsigned restricted free agent.
There’s little depth: There’s been some talk about moving Charlie Johnson from tackle to compete with Gandy, but there’s no guarantee Johnson can play any better inside than outside, and it would further subtract from already shaky depth at tackle. (3) The Colts also have Patrick Ross and Mike Elgin — two salt-of-the-Earth types who lack athleticism and size — and Tala Esera — a big guy with slow reflexes — inside. None of them appear to be the answer. (4)
Neither of the team’s starting tackles have been durable: Left tackle Tony Ugoh missed five games last year due to injury, but I’ll cut him a break because he was a rookie and was pretty injury-resistant in college. Right tackle Ryan Diem, though, seems to get injured every year, missing 20 games in seven seasons; and each injury seems to sap him just a little more. Scott was the team’s third-best tackle and he’s gone. Johnson’s the fourth best (5) and people are talking about plugging him inside.
Free agency and the cap are looming: Jeff Saturday may still be a top center, but he’s a free agent after next season. He’ll be 34 years old, and coming off a season in which he had a $4,684,667 salary. Diem is signed thru 2011, but his salaries will be $6,050,000 in 2009, $4,950,000 in 2010 and $5,400,000 in 2011 — perhaps more than he’s worth if injuries continue to mount. He’s four years younger than Saturday, but may have less tread left on his tires.
The team is built around offense: All those top picks spent on offense (like Ugoh, Dallas Clark, Anthony Gonzalez and Reggie Wayne) when the fans were screaming for defense were not actually surprises if you know Bill Polian’s philosophy. The team is built around Peyton Manning; to succeed, you get Manning targets and protection. And don’t think Manning doesn’t have a say in things. If a quarterback can wave off his coach’s decision to send in the punting unit on national television, you know he has input in the war room.

In other news, the Colts also looked at two more college players:

Gian Villante ILB Hofstra (6016, 234, 4.64): All-Colonial tackling machine is a monster between the tackles, not a bad blitzer and a crunching hitter. Would likely get audition on specials.
Joe Reitz TE Western Michigan (6061, 261, e4.85): The Colts were one of a few teams to work out this athletic power forward with no football experience after high school. One assumes he projects as a tight end. He’s an Indy native with a 3.73 GPA in Finance. Nice scoring touch, will fight for rebounds.

Notes:
1. Except that horrible playoff game against Pittsburgh when he was undone by hidden interior blitzes. In his defense, though, Ryan Lilja was just as bad.
2. When Gandy did start, it was usually because Scott was playing tackle.
3. The other tackles at present are Daniel Federkeil, Michael Toudouze and Corey Hilliard.
4. I could be wrong. Who ever thought undersized, undrafted Saturday would have a future when he arrived in Indy after he’d already been cut by the Ravens?
5. And it was a long drop from Scott to Johnson.

Tuesday, April 8, 2008

Tiny college prospect

I know the Colts scour the nation (1) for small-school talent, but Hillsdale College? It's a 1,300 student liberal arts college whose best-known alum was talented director Bob Clark (2). Not really a football powerhouse, its most famous grad was Chester Marcol, the noted kicker from the 70s. Oh, and there was another worth mentioning. In 1964, the 49ers used the first pick of the ninth round to select Hillsdale guard Howard Mudd. Now you know why the Colts are there.

But the player they are looking at is not an o-lineman for Mudd to mold. Mark Nicolet (6013, 220, 4.84) is a short, but strong-armed and atheletic quarterback. After a strong senior season (371-240-3,335-31-8 passing, 76-206-2 rushing, 3-12-0 receiving and one punt for 44 yards), he was named second-team D2 All-American and totally destroyed the West in the Cactus Bowl (18-10-103-3-0 passing, 4-41-0 rushing). While it's unlikely he'll get any love on draft day, expect the Colts (3) to be calling as soon as the selection process is over.

Notes:
1. And Canada and probably other countries as well.
2. He's best known for Porky's, but I prefer to remember him for the sublime A Christmas Story.
3. He is, after all, from Zionsville.

Sunday, April 6, 2008

Quick'n'dirty mock draft

2/59 John Greco T: A rare athlete who could step in at guard right away and develop into a tackle later on
3/93 Marcus Howard DE: A special pass-rusher who could easily step in and contribute
4/127 Thomas Brown HB: Hard-nosed but undersized back can block and catch
5/161 Joey Haynos TE: Huge (6'8) tight end prospect good at all aspects of position, awesome at none
6/196 Luke Swan WR: This was a hard one; Swan is a very good slot prospect — he can catch anything and has preternatural quickness — but no return experience and little special teams value
6/201 Mike Martinez C: Not the most athletic guy around, but a smart kid who's a top pass protector who plays his best against top competition.
6/202 Weston Dacus ILB: It's very likely they could grab an ILB like Jo-Lonn Dunbar earlier, but Dacus is a superior athlete who could develop into something special.
6/205 Jayson Foster WR: Another WR? No. This guy will see the line of scrimmage as often as Adam Vinatieri. The Colts are desperate for a dangerous return man — here he is.
7/236 Joe Fields S: This converted QB is still learning the position, but he has all the qualities the Colts look for, except pure speed

Friday, April 4, 2008

Pro Football Weekly says the Colts are interested in re-signing Rob Morris if he passes another physical. I'd be all for it. While it's unlikely Morris could unseat any of the Colts starters at linebacker, he could back all of them up and reassume his spot as the team's most effective and dynamic special-teams performer.

More auditions:

Weston Dacus ILB Arkansas (6011, 237, 4.60): How do you not love a kid like this? A tackling machine (102 tackles, 6.5T FL, 3 sacks as a senior), who has a business degree and is a repeat winner of Arkansas' "Hardest-Working Hog" award. And unlike many leather-helmet types, he has the athleticism to back it up, leading all ILB prospects in the shuttle and placing in the top three in the long jump, vertical and cones. An under-rated prospect, Dacus could have NFL starting potential if he can get a better grip on pass coverage. At worst, he's a solid backup with special-teams potential.

Joey Haynos TE Maryland (6075, 259, 4.87c/4.79pd): With Ben Utecht taking his act to the Ohio Valley and Dallas Clark doing his best Marvin Harrison imitation, the Colts need a tight end who can block; so how about this kid who looks like a cross between a power forward and a left tackle? Haynos isn't the dominating blocker you'd expect from a dude his size, but he is effective and, with coaching, could get much better. And, the kid has hands (68 catches and 4 scores in college). Although he'll never terrorize safeties on go routes, he can serves as an effective dump-off/emergency receiver when he isn't throwing linebackers to the ground. Oh, and he's also one of those high-character types. And, although he towers over most humans, he's also a great leaper — perfect for the red zone.

Jo-Lonn Dunbar ILB Boston College (6004, 231, 4.79c/4.85pd): You know the love Coltplay has for Dacus, it has more for Dunbar. At a workout, he looks like a fringe camp invite; on tape, he looks like a first rounder. Kid can flat-out play. He's a leader, a take-charge guy who elevates those around him. his numbers may not look special, but he dominates between the tackles and understands what it takes to shut down the short passing game. Despite his triangle number disadvantages, I see him as an eventual NFL starter. As with many propects the Colts are looking at, Dunbar is a fine young man — a leader who can boast about his academic record.

Luke Swan WR Wisconsin (5117, 195, 4.59): Forget the lackluster 40, this kid is a rare athlete and a very elusive natural runner with extraordinary lateral movement skills. Combine that with top-notch route-running, soft-as-silk hands and an indomitable will to succeed and you have a player. And he has all those character, work ethic and intelligence dealie-os the Colts stress so often. Too bad he spends so much time in the whirlpool, though. The kid looks like a football player in every way, but if you can't stay in one piece long enough to contribute in the Big 10, how can you survive in the NFL?

Tyrell Johnson SS Arkansas State (5117, 207, 4.41): This kid is an out-of-this-world athlete who doesn't always bring everything he has to the field. Distinctly better against the run and as a blitzer than he is in coverage, Johnson could have a future at linebacker in a system like Indy's. An awesome open-fiel tackler, he'll make whichever team gets him better on specials.

Curtis Cutts FS Central Michigan (5117, 216, 4.62):