Monday, April 30, 2012

Looking at the Colts UDFAs


Undrafted free agents generally fall into one of three groups: a) accomplished college players who went undrafted because of a flaw — like a terrible forty time, inadequate height or coming from a very low level of competition — or bad luck — like a major injury, transfer or position change  — made them undesirable in some way or another, b) players who are unlikely to be major NFL contributors, but have a single skill — like punt returns, wedge busting or short-yardage running — that could make them valuable role players should there be an extra roster spot available, and c) players who did not accomplish much in college, but are intriguing because of their size or speed or big arm or whatever — guys teams hope they can “coach up” into players.

This year, the Colts have some of all of that. Let’s take a look:

Jabin Sambrano WR Montana
Numbers: 5112/178/4.50pd
2011 stats: 40-836-1 kick returns, 36-632-10 receiving, 37-354-1 punt returns, 6-141-2 rushing, 1-0-0-0-0 passing
ColtPlay says: In a small school like Montana, Sambrano looks like Percy Harvin. But he lacks the size, strength and explosion to do what Harvin can in the pros. It would be an uphill battle for him to get much time on offense, but he’s a smart, natural runner with great lateral movement and toughness, so he could win the return job and serve as an extra wide receiver.

Griff Whalen WR Stanford
Numbers: 5104/185/4.55pd
2011 stats: 56-749-4 receiving
ColtPlay says: Nothing really stands out about Whalen as an athlete or football player except for his hands and determination. The fact that he, like Fleener, caught his collegiate passes from Luck certainly helps, but without any special-teams skills, he would have to really wow the coaches to win a spot as a slot receiver.

Jason Foster OG Rhode Island
Numbers: 6032/298/5.31pd
ColtPlay says:
An undersized guard who excels at pulling and hitting on the move — in spite of his timed speed — Foster could earn a practice squad spot.

Hayworth Hicks OG Iowa State
Numbers: 6024/329/5.35pd
ColtPlay says: Big as a mountain and about as mobile, Hicks would need to develop to be a backup and short-yardage blocker in the NFL. Still, as a big-time contributor at a big-time program, it's unlikely he's not an improvement on the Colts' recent set of back-up interior linemen.

Steven Baker OT East Carolina
Numbers 6074/301/4.91pd
ColtPlay says: This athletic former basketball center and shot putter is huge and has all the raw materials, but is still developing. A potential find if he can put on some more muscle and get some coaching time and reps, Baker has NFL left tackle potential — but it’s far off. He’s the very model of the guy you try to hide on the practice squad.

James Aiono DT Utah
Numbers: 6025/305/5.12pd
2011 stats: 1 tackle, 1 assist, 2 passes broken up
ColtPlay says: Usually when an unsigned free agent has just two tackles as a senior, it’s because he was injured or suspended or something. Not so with Aiono, who played in all 13 of Utah’s games last season, but just could not crack the starting lineup. He has great workout numbers, and projects as a 5-technique, but the Colts would have to get a lot more out of him than the Utes did for him to be of any value.

Chigbo Anunoby DT Morehouse State
Numbers: 6037/324/5.44pd
2011 stats: 26 tackles, 23 assists, 14-46 TFL, 3.5-26 sacks, 1-0-0 fumble recovery, 3 forced fumbles, 1 kick blocked, 1 safety
ColtPlay says: Anunoby is a huge and hugely strong prospect who terrorized small-school competition. Of course, it's  huge step up to the NFL and Anunoby will definitely need time to develop.


Kevin Eagan DE Endicott
Numbers: 6040/276/4.82pd
2011 stats: 53 tackles, 51 assists, 23-87 TFL, 8.5-54 sacks, 3-24-0 interceptions, 1 pass broken up, 3-0-0 fumble recoveries, 3 forced fumbles
ColtPlay says: Eagan’s an interesting prospect not only because of his physical presence, but his outstanding collegiate production, even though it was at a tiny New England hoity-toity liberal arts college. I don’t see another Robert Mathis here, but Eagan will get a shot to see what he can do at strong outside linebacker (left end in passing situations), but may have to excel on special teams to earn a roster spot, allowing him to develop.

Chris Galippo LB USC
Numbers: 6014/241/4.87c4.79pd
2011 stats: 21 tackles, 26 assists, 3.5-11 TFL, 1.5-8 sacks, 1-3-0 interceptions, 11 passes broken up, 1-0-0 fumble recovery
ColtPlay says: The big question with Galippo is his health. Significant back injuries ate into his college career, and have to be monitored going forward. Even at full health, Galippo is not athletic enough to be a full-time NFL starter and his habit of missing open-field tackles in an effort to make a highlight-reel hit will not help him earn a spot on special teams. Still, the Colts are so weak at the spot, he could surprise. This is the kind of guy fans think is a shoo-in because they’ve heard of him, but the coaches may beg to differ.

Cameron Chism CB Maryland
Numbers: 5103/190/4.55pd
2011 stats: 29 tackles, 18 assists, 2-4 TFL, 3-100-2 interceptions, 11 passes broken up, 2-0-0 fumble recoveries, 1 forced fumble
ColtPlay says: If there’s such a thing as a safety in a cornerback’s body, then that’s what Chism is. As a great tackler who can shed and blitz, is comfortable in zones but shaky in man coverage, he plays like a safety. But he’s a lot shorter and lighter than you’d want a safety to be. Chism is a football player, no doubt, but it’s hard to figure out where to put him on defense. Is he a tough slot corner or an undersized free safety? I’m sure he’d help on special teams, but he may struggle to find a spot on defense. Could well be a practice squad stash, but that might just be prolonging a hard decision. Still, he's exactly the kind of kid you want to see succeed.

Antonio Fenelus CB Wisconsin
Numbers: 5082/190/4,68c4.50pd
2011 stats: 33 tackles, 18 assists, 3-7 TFL, 4-10-0 interceptions, 14 passes broken up, 1 forced fumble
ColtPlay says: A natural cover man, Fenelus may not have the size or speed to compete in the NFL. The fact that he’s not really all that enthusiastic about stopping the run certainly doesn’t help his cause.

Buddy Jackson CB Pittsburgh
Numbers: 6001/187/4.37pd
2011 stats: 23-534-1 kick returns, 23 tackles, 11 assists, 0.5-3 TFL, 4 passes broken up 1-0-0, fumble recovery
ColtPlay says: Jackson’s not that much of a defensive back, but he’s a very good return prospect and an excellent special-teams gunner. It’s probably too much to ask the football gods to hope Jackson will develop into a serviceable NFL corner, but his special-teams prowess could earn him a roster spot — but it’s a crowded position.

Micah Pellerin CB Hampton
Numbers: 6003/194/4.61c
2011 stats: 29 tackles, 22 assists, 4.5-14 TFL, 4-58-0 interceptions, 15 passes broken up, 1 forced fumble,
ColtPlay says: Pellerin has great coverage skills, but lacks long speed, can be thrown around by bigger receivers and is not a big-time tackler. Depending on how physical the new staff expects their corners to be, Pellerin could have a shot.

Matt Merletti SS North Carolina
Numbers: 5100/200/4.59pd
2011 stats: 24 tackles, 12 assists, 1-4 TFL, 2-8-0 interceptions, 4 passes broken up, 2 forced fumbles
ColtPlay says: Of all the Colts’ UDFAs, Merletti is the most NFL-ready. If you can forgive a lack of top-end speed and look past his checkered durability, Merletti’s actually a pretty good NFL safety prospect. He’s certainly good enough to compete with the David Caldwells, Mike Newtons and Joe Lefegeds of the world.

Brian Stahovich P San Diego State
Numbers: 5117/217/DNP
2011 stats: 61-2,669-11 punting, 1-1-5-0-0 passing
ColtPlay says: Stahovic is a strong-legged punter with surprising athleticism. The problem for him is that the Colts already have a stronger-legged punter with even more outstanding athleticism in Pat McAfee. Unless something untoward happens, the best the Colts can hope for is that Stahovic is so good in preseason that they can trade him for a draft pick like they did Dan Stryzinski in 1988.

Saturday, April 28, 2012

Colts draft analysis: Luck and his weapons


I’m absolutely delighted with the Colts’ draft. I was writing a blog post before the draft in which the thesis would be that it would be reckless and irresponsible to draft Andrew Luck first and then not get him weapons on offense. Sure, there are holes on defense, but without receivers, blockers and perhaps another runner, the multi-million-dollar kid would get killed out there.

And that’s exactly what Ryan Grigson did. In all, he got Luck two reliable tight ends, two speedy wide receivers, a big between-the-tackles back and a massive tackle who may move inside. He also managed to wedge in a pretty accomplished nose tackle and a decent pass-rushing prospect, so there’s that too.

1/1 Andrew Luck QB Stanford
Numbers: 6040/234/4.67c
2011 stats: 404-288-3,517-37-10 passing, 47-150-2 rushing, 1-13-0 receiving, 1 tackle
ColtPlay says: I hate to beat a dead horse, so I won’t. Almost everything that can be said about the Luck-Colts relationship has already been said. The only thing I’d add is that all those fans expecting eight or nine wins out of the box are probably being a little unrealistic. Peyton Manning — who still has to be considered the gold standard of Colts quarterbacks — was even more polished and NFL-ready than Luck when he entered the league, and came into a better situation with Marshall Faulk in the backfield, and he won just three games as a rookie. Luck will almost certainly develop into a top-flight NFL quarterback, but he will also almost certainly have a nightmare season as a rookie.

2/34 Coby Fleener TE Stanford
Numbers: 6056/247/4.51pd
2011 stats: 34-667-10 receiving, 2 tackles
ColtPlay says: That said, Luck must be delighted to have his favorite target and good friend come into the league with him. Don’t kid yourself; Fleener is a premium talent at a position of need. He runs great routes, has soft hands, is very tall and has deep speed better than about half the wideouts in the league. I think it’s very meaningful that when Stanford needed a two-point convert last season, Luck threw to Fleener. And they made it. The knock on this kid is that he’s not much of a blocker, but these days, aside from guys like Brandon Pettigrew, what tight ends are good blockers? Brody Eldridge is, and I don’t think that’s who the Colts need to see on offense very often. A strong tight end, especially one who can pull safeties off the line of scrimmage and offer a variety of third-down options, is exactly what a young quarterback needs. It will be a tough first year for Luck, but having Fleener in the fold will make it a hell of a lot easier. He may not have a ton of catches in his first year, but his ability to pull the safeties off the line, offer a reliable (and familiar) target in the red zone and be able to play jump ball with safeties (or corners if he lines up wide) will be a huge boost for his rookie quarterback's confidence.

3/64 Dwayne Allen TE Clemson
Numbers: 6032/255/4.89c
2011 stats: 50-598-8 receiving, 4 tackles, 1 assist
ColtPlay says: I was flabbergasted when Colts fans considered this a bad pick. Really? Most NFL offenses run two-tight end set about 70-75 percent of the time; so a “second” tight end is basically a full-time player. And, although Allen is shorter and slower than Fleener, he is blessed with some of the best hands ever to grip a football. In fact, until he ran a horrible forty at the Combine, many considered Allen a first-round pick. Despite the familiarity Luck has with Fleener, I think you’ll see Allen have more catches as a rookie because he’ll be the guy running the short outlet routes on third down while the safeties are trying to chase Fleener. Consider him Luck’s security blanket.

3/92 T.Y. Hilton WR Florida International
Numbers: 5095/183/4.34pd
2011 stats: 72-1,038-7 receiving, 18-548-0 kick returns, 8-186-1 punt returns, 19-124-1 rushing
ColtPlay says: The Colts traded up to get this guy, so they really must like him. I do, too, but there are obvious upsides and downsides. On the sugar-coated side of the ledger, Hilton has astounding speed, great hands, short-area burst, top-of-the-line character and work ethic, elite leaping ability and overall football sense. But he is also haunted by a lack of height, a lack of weight, a lack of strength and a lack of durability. He will compete with free agent Donnie Avery for Pierre Garçon’s old split end role, and will probably win it if he stays healthy. His stat sheet will probably have a gaudy per-catch average, but not as many catches as you’d like. Still, his deep speed will keep defenses from crowding Reggie Wayne, Fleener and Allen near the line. Hilton — a smart and patient runner — will offer far better return skills than Garçon, but will never be close to his equal as a blocker.

5/136 Josh Chapman NT Alabama
Numbers: 6007/316/DNP
2011 stats: 10 tackles, 13 assists, 3.5-9 TFL, 1-3 sack, 4 passes broken up
ColtPlay says: Before I address Chapman, I have to say that I was totally frustrated by the way the Colts fans interpreted the signing of two former Ravens. When the Colts signed Tom Zbikowski, fans rejoiced, claiming their woes at strong safety were over. But when they signed Brandon McKinney, fans said meh, we still need a nose tackle. But the two players played, give or take, the same number of snaps last year, and while Zbikowski was benched from a starting position, McKinney played extremely well as a part-timer behind an all-world performer. If you watch the film, you can see that McKinney looks like an up-and-comer, while Zbikowski causes far more doubt. That said, the Colts drafted a nose tackle and not a strong safety. Chapman is what you look for in a second-tier nose tackle: He’s phenomenally strong, he’s stout, he’s tough and he will play unselfishly through pain. He won’t get a sack unless he falls on a quarterback and he gets winded if he plays too long, but you could say the same thing about every nose tackle there ever was, except for a sainted few. I can see him and McKinney rotating on the first two downs, keeping each other fresh and doing that nose tackle thing.  Because of an injury, teh Colts will not be able to see Chpman in action until late summer.

5/170 Vick Ballard HB Mississippi State
Numbers: 5101/219/4.65c4.56pd
2011 stats: 193-1,189-10 rushing, 20-187-0 receiving, 1 tackle
ColtPlay says: While I don’t have a lot of faith in the Colts current halfbacks, I would have preferred a speedy run-catch guy, but for a big guy, I guess Ballard’s okay. He doesn’t have great straight-line speed, but great lateral movement for a guy his size and an ability to make himself small when he has to. Look, he falls forward when he’s hit, and how many Colts halfbacks can you say that about since Edgerrin James? Still, he’s neither a natural blocker nor receiver, so don’t expect to see him in heavy rotation.

6/206 LaVon Brazill WR Ohio
Numbers: 5106/192/4.48c
2011 stats: 74-1,146-11 receiving, 25-137-0 punt returns, 3-77-1 rushing, 2-40-0 kick returns
ColtPlay says: Every year there’s a guy I root for, and this year it’s Brazill. Forget his Combine forty, this kid can fly on the field. But like Hilton, he’s a small guy who could be thrown around in college, so he may be in for a tough time in the NFL. And also, like Hilton, he’s a fine young man, the type you want to see succeed. They’ll throw him into the mix at split end and return specialist, and I would be very surprised if he did not stick at least as an extra.

7/208 Justin Anderson T Georgia
Numbers: 6042/335/5.31c
2011 stats: He’s an offensive lineman
ColtPlay says: Anderson’s the boom-or-bust guy this year. A former defensive lineman, Anderson is still learning how to be an offensive lineman, but has been very impressive so far. Ridiculously strong and quick, the concerns with Anderson are (not surprisingly) technique, durability and endurance. The upside on this guy at right tackle or guard is sky high, but the questions are also legitimate. I see his rookie year as one of few game appearances, intense coaching and lots of diet and exercise. If everything comes together, he could be a legit NFL starter. But he’s just as likely a career backup or even a second-year cut. It’s the seventh round, though, so well worth a gamble.

7/214 Tim Fugger OLB Vanderbilt
Numbers: 6032/248/4.60pd
2011 stats: 21 tackles, 12 assists, 13.5-54 TFL, 8-39 sacks, 8 passes broken up, 3 forced fumbles, 1-0-0 fumble recovery
ColtPlay says: Again, it’s the seventh round, so why not take some gambles? There are many questions about Fugger, but he has a great first step, fine college production and a sterling character. Look for him to make a living on special teams and outshine Jerry Hughes as the primary backup for Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis at outside linebacker.

7/253 Chandler Harnish QB Northern Illinois
Numbers: 6014/219/4.76c
2011 stats: 384-237-3,216-28-6 receiving, 194-1,379-11 rushing
ColtPlay says: I can't tell you how much love this pick. When the Colts get a chance to choose Mr. Irrelevant, they go with a marquee guy. No, Harnish is not the most polished passer among the draftables, but he’s enough of a passing prospect that he’s worth a look. Oh, and he just happens to be a better runner than most of the mid-round halfbacks. Look for him to make the roster as a No. 3 quarterback and don’t be surprised if the Colts build in some plays and formations to take advantage of his immense athletic talents. On a side note, I have been begging the Colts to draft an athletic running quarterback for years, so the selection of Harnish seems a bit like Christmas morning to me.

Also, the Colts have signed slow-but-talented Hampton CB Micah Pellerin (6003/194/4.61c) and stout USC inside linebacker Chris Galippo (6014/241/4.87?..

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Colts' right cornerback may already be on the roster


So the Colts’ brass is saying that there’s a decent chance that the starter at right cornerback next year might be Kevin Thomas (6000/192/4.41) or Chris Rucker (6004/195/4.54). While it may be reassuring that the team feels that they don’t need to fill that slot through the draft or free agency, it’s a little disturbing based on their 2011 performances.

Let’s look at Rucker first. A 2011 sixth-round pick, Rucker played sparingly at first, not appearing in a game until Week 4 against Tampa Bay, and not getting any starts until Week 14. In the end, he played more than any Colts corner except for top guy Jerraud Powers, the much-maligned and since-departed Jacob Lacey and Thomas.

In coverage, Rucker was true to the Colts’ old bend-don’t-break system, giving a big cushion and allowing short completions rather than long ones and trying to mitigate yards after the catch. He was pretty good at preventing big gains, allowing just one touchdown and only two completions over 20 yards. But the problem was that he allowed lots and lots of short gains. In fact, quarterbacks threw for 25-20-184-1-0 against him for a 110.7 passer rating. That, combined with no interceptions and just one pass knocked down, indicates that he had a pretty rough year.

He was little better against the run, making just four tackles (none behind the line of scrimmage) in the run game with one missed tackle. On the bright side, he did manage a pressure on one of his few blitzes.

Okay, it’s Thomas’ turn. A surprise third-round pick in 2010, he spent his that season on injured reserve making him a virtual rookie in 2012. He played in just about every game, starting from Week 7 to Week 12 before giving way to Rucker. Although he obviously has some skills, he was a quarterback’s dream last season, allowing 38-26-404-3-0 to opposing quarterbacks for a ridiculous 129.7 passer reating. And unlike Rucker, he played tight, more man-on-man. Sometimes it worked out okay — he certainly allowed a much lower completion percentage than Rucker — and sometimes it didn’t as when he was literally destroyed by Julio Jones in Week 9 (see the accompanying photo). He also had no interceptions, but three passes defensed.

Against the run, Thomas also had four tackles, but missed on three others. Wow. And he added nothing as a blitzer.

To put it bluntly, both of them sucked in 2011. But corner is one of the most, if not the most, difficult positions to make the adaptation from college to pro. Many a fine corner has sucked as a rookie, so let’s give our guys — who were playing on a team trhat had essentially given up — the benefit of the doubt.

To tell you the truth, I actually like Rucker’s future better than Thomas’. I watched them both very closely, and I saw more smoothness and confidence from Rucker, Maybe Thomas will have a better career, but if I needed one of them to cover Calvin Johnson on third-and-10, I’d go with Rucker, He’d fail, of course, but not as spectacularly as Thomas.

So don’t be surprised if the Colts start 2012 with either Rucker or Thomas at right corner. Don’t be happy about it, but don’t be surprised, either.

Wednesday, April 4, 2012

Nose tackle signed


Good news and bad news. The good news is that the Colts signed Brandon McKinney, a run-stuffing nose tackle from the Ravens. McKinney is a tough big body who can solidly pin two blockers. A quick first step helps him out, but don’t expect any sacks from him unless he falls into one (he had just one pressure in 93 pass rushes last season). Although like most big men he has some conditioning issues, his best games as a Raven were the ones in which he saw the most snaps. He should be able to handle two-down nose tackle duties for the Colts, improving their run defense dramatically.

The bad news is that my mock draft is all screwed up now.

Monday, April 2, 2012

With the 97th pick in the NFL draft, the Colts select ...


It’s usually foolhardy to expect to draft a rookie starter in the fourth round. I mean, it happens, but I wouldn’t depend upon it. The exception is at fullback, where I think the Colts can get one later, but others are much less likely. I think the Colts will have to get a starter at inside linebacker either from free agency or (shudder) the current roster.

Still after drafting nose tackle Brandon Thompson in the second round and cornerback/return specialist Brandon Boykin in the third, I think it’s only fair that we get first-round pick Andrew Luck a receiving option.

There are two ways to go. The draft is deeper in wide receivers, but it’s traditionally easier to get a quality tight end late. At receiver, I’m looking at four guys here: Cal’s Marvin Jones (6017/199/4.46), Wisconsin’s Nick Toon (6017/215/4.54), Nevada’s Rishard Matthews (6003/217/4.62) and Arkansas’ Joe Adams (5105/179/4.55). There’s a lot to like about Jones. He’s a West Coast-style receiver who makes yards after the catch. But he’s not much of an athlete, and does not have much suddenness in his game. Toon is pretty much the same thing. He has more upside, but more dubious durability. Matthews is cast in the same lot, but may not be quite so determined to succeed. Adams is my favorite of the lot. He plays a lot faster than his forty time, and is a huge special-teams contributor. His size limits him to the slot, though, and the Colts need help on the outside more than the inside.

At tight end, there are two guys available who could contribute right away. And they are very much the same type. Both are soft-handed, have seam speed and can run routes. But neither can block worth a damn and there are durability and toughness questions about both. Missouri’s Michael Egnew (6051/252/4.62) is more NFL-ready, while Louisiana-Lafayette’s Ladarius Green (6056/238/4.53) has a higher upside. Normally on a rebuilding team, I’d go for the higher upside, but the fact that Egnew caught 90 passes as a soph makes me think he’s the guy who’ll help Luck adjust to the NFL.

I’m going with Egnew.