Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Roster shuffling

After just 14 snaps and one six-yard reception, Austin Collie's 2012 season is over. Although it was a torn patellar tendon and not another of the concussions that have so bedeviled his career, I wouldn't be overly surprised if he called it a career after this. Austin, you are a great receiver and a huge asset to the team, but this is your brain we're talking about here.

To replace him, the Colts have grabbed a prospect from the 49ers' practice squad. Nathan Palmer (5110/192/4.34pd in 2012) looks the part, and has great workout numbers, but was not as productive at Northern Illinois as you'd like him to have been. And, despite his timed speed, he didn't appear to play fast. Still, he did put up 47-695-7 receiving, 6-30-0 rushing as a senior last season, and appears to hvae a good rapport with Colts rookie quarterback Chandler Harnish.

***
In another roster move borne of desperation, the Colts cut guard Trai Essex (himself signed during an offensive line depth crisis), and replaced him with cornerback Darius Butler (5103/183/4.41c in 2009). This caught me as a bit of a surprise, not only because (aside from a couple of penalties), I thought Essex played fairly well by the standards of those around him, but because Butler had been around for a very long time and the Colts acquired what seemed like dozens of corners before coming around to him. Situations like that make you think the team has decided against a veteran.

But that's what Butler is, having played with the Patriots and Panthers after being drafted by New England in the second round of the 2009 draft. Butler has talent, no doubt. He's speedy and deceptively strong, is strong in zone coverage and can tackle better than most corners. However, he's prone to dangerous mental lapses (and pass-interference calls), is not at all suited to man coverage and can be suckered by play-action and other fakes.

Signing Butler is something of a gamble. He may turn out to be a contributor, but there's a strong chance he could do more harm than good.

***

Speaking of corners, did anyone notice Vontae Davis' performance against Jacksonville? I'll admit he was terrible in Game 1, I stand by my minority opinion that he was decent in Game 2, and I thought he was very good in Game 3. I think his career with the Colts will be an average of the three, a competent starting corner with flashes of greatness tempered by moments of terror.

Another of my favorites I think did well against Jacksonville was Winston Justice. There was a great deal of doubt about him coming into the season after his problems in Philadelphia (particularly when he was asked to play left tackle), but he has been by far and away the best of the Colts line at keeping Luck upright.

I think the Kris Adams as third receiver experiment is over now. Hilton just offers so much more. I'd actually be surprised if Adams makes it through the season. Here are how many yards each wideout has gained every time he's been thrown to:

Hilton 16.00
Brazill 10.00
Wayne 7.74
Avery 7.04
Collie 6.00
Adams 3.71

Obviously, those numbers are skewed by small sample sizes, but you get the point.

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Practise squad shuffling

The Colts made some practice squad changes, cutting NT Chigbo Anunoby and T Darrion Weems, replacing them with somewhat more esteemed players at the same positions.

The new NT is former Baylor Bear Nicolas Jean-Baptiste (6012/330/5.46pd in 2012). There's not a ton to say about him other than that he's huge, really thick and strong in the lower body, and has a pretty impressive first step. On the minus side he has short arms and legs, no pass-rush moves at all and the predictable conditioning and stamina issues you'd expect from such a behemoth. I know lots of fans are excited about him — many of them predicted the former guard to be as high as a fifth-round draft pick —but right now I see him as much the same light as Anunoby. Until he shows me something different, he's just a big guy in a uniform, not an NFL player.

I'm more excited with T Tony Hills (6051/309/4.98pd in 2008), in no small part because I have seen him play in the NFL. A converted a pumped-up tight end, Hills is a superior athlete, but lacks the requite sand in his pants to be an NFL regular. As you might expect, the former Steeler and Bronco is a better pass blocker than run blocker, although he was savaged the one time I saw him play for an extended period at left tackle. A few people have said he'll likely play guard for the Colts, but he has never played there in college or the pros.

Colts 23, Vikings 20

Ah, and there's much rejoicing in Coltsland now that the new edition of the team has its first win. It was tenuous, and it almost slipped away, but the Colts are now on the board. Here are some of ColtPlay's observations:

QB: I always knew Andrew Luck was a rare talent, but this game really indicated how special he really is. With no running game (the team went 26-63-0, a 2.42 average, if you subtract Luck's four runs) and opponents infesting the pocket, he managed to perform brilliantly.

HB: Donald Brown had one of those days he seems to have far too often. He dashed once for 15 yards around left tackle on a shotgun play, but the rest of the day saw him go 15-30 on the ground. Perhaps mindful of his two drops last week, Luck didn't throw to Brown once. The excitement that surrounded backup and erstwhile heir apparent Vick Ballard appears to have evaporated. Almost useless as a rusher against the Vikings, he failed to catch the single pass thrown his way. Speaking of shaken faith, my own in Mewelde Moore as a useful, role-playing veteran is waning. I can forgive his -2 yards on one rush because it was a dumb play call and the O-line did not help him at all, and I like his 8-yard reception on 2nd and three, but his drop was really, really ugly. The situation is bad here, but expect it to stay the seam because there's not really any other option.

WR: Can we stop the Donnie Avery hate now? Against the Vikings, he performed well inside and out against favorable matchups and not-so-favorable matchups. Do I expect 100-yard games from him regularly? No, but i do think he'll be a fine contributor for the rest of the season at least. A lot of Avery's looks probably came because the Vikings did their best to bottle up Reggie Wayne. They didn't do a great job as Wayne caught everything thrown his way, including a touchdown. Kris Adams was the third receiver again, but after catching just two of six passes for 26 yards in two games, I'm not sure he'll keep it. Barring the triumphant return of Austin Collie, the options to replace Adams would be rookies TY Hilton or LaVon Brazill. So far, both have looked talented, but lost.

TE: Neither Coby Fleener nor Dwayne Allen have lived up to the preseason hype yet, but both have showed promise. Against the Vikings, Fleener had some key catches, but also a drop. Allen scored a touchdown on his first and only catch of the season. Neither did anything good or bad as a blocker, but ColtPlay favorite Dominique Jones didn't play much, but he did get a little push in the run game.

OL: Awful, just awful. Surprisingly, Jeff Linkenbach was not the worst, Seth Olson was. After Samson Satele went down and Mike McGlynn slid over from right guard to take his place, recent signee Trai Essex played. If it wasn't for his two penalties, Essex would have graded out as the best of the Colts' linemen. that says a lot.

DL: The starting ends, Cory Redding and Fili Moala, both played very well, but were let down by Mookie Johnson's inability to deal with Vikings center John Sullivan. His backup, Martin Tevaseu, did little better, and the backup ends, Ricardo Matthews and Drake Nevis, added little.

OLB: Am I nuts, or did Jerry Hughes actually look like an NFL player? Maybe the new scheme was all he needed. Still, I'm reserving judgement until I see some consistency. Robert Mathis continued his pass-rushing excellence, and was more solid against the run than I had seen in a while. Backups Mario Addison and Justin Hickman played a bit, but didn't make much difference.

ILB: When everyone was going crazy over Jerrell Freeman for his Pick-6 last week, I took the time to point out his missed tackles and problems shedding blocks. Now it looks like I was quibbling after he played lights-out against the Vikings. Well, he had problems in coverage (especially against Percy Harvin, but that's forgivable), but maybe I am quibbling. His excellent performance was equaled (and perhaps helped out) by a similar effort from Kavell Conner. Backup Moise Fokou also looked quite good. This will be quite the position of strength when Pat Angerer comes back from injury.

CB: After a shaky debut, Vontae Davis rebounded with a good game, much to the relief of Colts fans everywhere. On the other side, Jerraud Powers provided his usual solid showing. Harvin made life hard for slot guy Justin King, but he held up fairly well, certainly better than most would have predicted in the offseason.

S: Both Tom Zbikowski and Antoine Bethea played at a high standard, although Bethea did have a costly missed tackle. Backups Sergio Brown and Joe Lefeged showed up, but didn't make any difference good or bad.

ST: The Colts are blessed with two outstanding kickers. Adam Vinatieri won the game on a long field goal after the Vikings tied it up, and Pat McAfee continued his excellence on both kickoffs and punts. TY Hilton did not look exciting on returns, but at least he held on to the ball. Coverage teams continued to be fast and energetic, but not all that disciplined.

Friday, September 14, 2012

Desperate times

Desperation for depth along the offensive line has forced the Colts to poach tackle Bradley Sowell (6067/309/5.22pd in 2012) from the Bucs' practice squad.

You may recall that Sowell had the dubious distinction of replacing folk hero Michael Oher at left tackle for Ole Miss. That, and a penchant for looking like he wasn't always playing hard, made him a whipping boy for Ole Miss fans for his entire career there. But, in truth, Sowell isn't a bad prospect. Like most of the rest of the Colts' linemen, he's a much better pass protector than he is a run blocker. And, sadly, he also appears to be missing the same mean streak as most of the rest of the Colts' big fellows.

If he has to play this season, I think Sowell will be sorely overmatched, as would most rookie left tackles. But he has enough potential to be a pretty decent swing backup.

A further indication that the Colts need depth on the line is the fact that they re-signed center AQ Shipley (one of the two guys cut to make room for Sowell and potential Sunday starter Trai Essex) to the practice squad. To make room for him, they dumped DJ Johnson, one of the several dozen corners they traded for in the offseason.

***

The injury list looks pretty grim:

• As we all knew WLB/WILB Pat Anger is out. Jerrell Freeman will play in his place. He's a step down, but not a terrible option.

• LG Joe Reitz is out. There will be a three-way battle to replace him among Seth Olson, who stepped in last week and was horrible, Jeff Linkenbach, who lost the job to Olson in preseason, or Essex, who was just signed the other day. My money is on Essex — who is arguably more accustomed to the Colts' offense than the other two — unless he's a few bags of Doritos over the limit. Then it'll be Olson.

• RDE/WOLB Dwight Freeney is out. That's a tragedy. Next on the depth chart, as we all know, is the outlaw Jerry Hughes. Neither he nor Mario Addison looked anything like NFL pass rushers in Game 1, and Justin Hickman, the other option, didn't play on defense. No matter who plays, I would not expect much.

• WR Austin Collie's participation is up in the air again. I would err on the side of safety, and — with TY Hilton looking healthier — I think the Colts may actually agree.

• On the plus side, it looks like RT Winston Justice is back.


***

I'm running short on time, but I promised a look at the secondary's performance against the Bears.

• Jerraud Powers: Hindered, perhaps, by the poor pass rush, Powers was no better than okay, allowing a number of completions in front of him, and playing to avoid being burned. He was a non-factor in the run game.



• Vontae Davis; He was tragic, allowing two touchdowns and all but one of the passes thrown his way top be completed. He was nearly as bad against the run, missing a clean tackle.


• Justin King: Aside from being flagged twice, King stood up admirably in coverage.

• Cassius Vaughn: Came in for a single play and was flagged for pass interference.


• Antonie Bethea: Had his hands full taking care of other people's mistakes, and did not grade out any better than average. He also blitzed ineffectively.



• Tom Zbikowski: It's funny, people love him in run support and are leery of his coverage abilities, but in Game 1, he graded out well in coverage and not so great against the run.


• Joe Lefeged: Ran around for six snaps, didn't do much good or bad of note. I guess he added a little containment on running plays.

 



Monday, September 10, 2012

Is the line offensive?

It's interesting that the big news on the day I choose to write about the Colts' offensive line, there's a big shakeup there. The Colts cut backup center AQ Shipley and backup tackle Mike Person — neither of whom played in the opener — and signed veteran lineman Trai Essex (6044/322/5.61c5.46pd in 2005). 

I hesitate to put a position down for Essex because in 2011 alone, he played right guard, right tackle, left tackle, left guard, center and even fullback for Bruce Arians and the Pittsburgh offense. The Colts have him listed at guard, and it would appear that he will compete with Seth Olson for the right to start in Joe Reitz's left guard spot.

But he might wind up playing right tackle. The situation is almost as tenuous there. Starter Winston Justice was knocked out of Game 1 with a concussion and his replacement, Jeff Linkenbach, did not play well. If Justice can't play, Essex could get the call with Linkenbach likely to be kicked inside to see if he can oust Olson.

The scouting report on Essex is largely agreed-upon by fans and media alike. He's very talented and smart, but lazy and he carries a little more weight around the midsection than is ideal. He reminds me a bit of Tony Ugoh. Not because he's a great athlete like Ugoh or because he has terrible technique like Ugoh, but because he has moments that make you wonder if he actually likes playing football. When he's motivated — and let's hope having a paying job rather than waiting by the phone is motivating enough — he's a plus pass protector, but even at his best, he's not an asset in the run game.

Looking back at the Bears game, I think I may have been too harsh to call the offensive line's effort a debacle. There were some promising signs.

Left tackle Anthony Castonzo had the unenviable task of reining in Julius Peppers most of the night and faced first-rounder Shea McClellin most of the rest of the time. Castanzo graded out decently in pass protection, but did not get much push in the run game.

Left guard Olson, playing for the injured Reitz, looked better than he had in preseason, but still not up to NFL starter standards. He was close to adequate in pass-pro, but offered no help for the running game, failing to get any push.

Center Samson Satele was, in my opinion, the biggest disappointment. A veteran coming off a mostly successful 2011 season in Oakland, Satele was beaten frequently by the Bears' Henry Melton on pass plays, and generally made Andrew Luck's debut an adventure. On the plus side, Satele generated the most push of all the Colts' linemen in the run game, but that's little consolation when compared to his contributions in pass-pro, especially since the Colts only ran 13 times.

Right guard Mike McGlynn, thoroughly criticized throughout the preseason, actually played the best of the bunch, busting his butt to help keep Luck's jersey clean and to open holes for Donald Brown (which Brown often didn't see). My one criticism with McGlynn's play was that he could have done more to help Satele, who was obviously having a tough outing.

Right tackle Winston Justice also graded out decently, effectively silencing Israel Idonije as a pass rusher. But, again, I didn't see him do anything positive in the run game. After he left the game, Linkenbach stepped in and, to be honest, stunk the place up. The Bears just ran right over him like a speed bump. I don't think Linkenbach is as bad as he appeared to be Sunday, but his confidence must be shaken after all the moving around and criticism he's had to withstand of late.

Overall, I think we can make some conclusions about the line:

• It was designed to protect Luck, not pummel defenses with a heavy-duty rushing attack. All of the starters are more accomplished in pass-pro than run blocking (although you couldn't tell by Satele's effort), and the Colts' halfbacks will most likely do little to make the men in front of them look good.

• Depth is perilously thin. Olson's play is making me long for the return of Joe Reitz. Yeah, Joe Reitz. That's how much faith I have in Olson. And Linkenbach was terrible in relief of Justice. Imagine if he had to stand in for Castanzo. Behind them now are the recently signed Essex and nobody else.

• There are no stars. Obviously Castanzo is the big name here, but while he is a pretty good player and still improving, hopes that he'll be the next Joe Thomas are quickly fading. The other starters and major contributors are stopgap players, and will probably all be replaced in three years if not sooner.

• Say what you will, they did a great job avoiding penalties.

Other things (aside from the secondary and special teams, which I will get to later) I'm thinking about:

• Luck attempted just three passes of over 20 yards in the air. One was a pick, one was incomplete and the other was caught by Reggie Wayne for 23 yards.

• The more I think about Brown's two dropped passes, the more I can't get over them. Come on, Donald, you've improved in just about every other area, why is this happening now? Maybe it's just a statistical anomaly, and he'll bag the rest of them.

• Although he saw just a smattering of plays, I really liked what I saw from Dominque Jones.

• To all those who-knew-Tim-Jennings-was-good? people: Me, I did, look it up. I always supported him as a Colt, and was really bummed when they got rid of him.

• You know who was way better than I thought? Martin Tevaseu. I wouldn't sit Mookie for him quite yet, but he bears watching.

• Let's see more Drake Nevis.

• Yes, I know Jerrell Freeman had a Pick-6, but he also missed a few tackles. That's a break even. Still, he's not likely to get an interception every week, but you can be pretty sure he's gonna miss a few tackles.

• I think injuries will decide who will fill the currently open roster spot. It could be a pass rusher or another offensive lineman.

Note: ColtPlay has recently switched to an all-text format because a large proportion of our readers access the site on mobile devices.


Sunday, September 9, 2012

Bears 41, Colts 21

Okay, that's about what I thought would happen. I can't say that I expected the Bears to roll up 41 points, but I did expect the Colts would have a hard time running, abandoning the running attack and suffer to score points, while they would also have a tough time keeping the Bears out of the end zone.  
QB 
 Considering his diminished receiving corps and the even less-talented quintet in front of him, Andrew Luck did a pretty creditable job. It's important to note that he improved steadily throughout the game, despite the fact that everybody in the stands knew he was virtually forced to pass on almost every play. Readers of ColtPlay know I had no belief Luck would work miracles right away, and he didn't. Instead, he looked like a rookie with great promise.  

HB 
 The Colts virtually abandoned the run game, but it was pretty ineffective before they did. Brown was as wildly inconsistent as ever, tempering the widely held idea he has the potential to be a successful feature back. To give you an idea of how feast-or-famine he runs, here are his rushes against Chicago: -2, -4, 18, 18, 1, -3, 0, 7, 13. Four carries went for seven or more yards, but the other five were for minus-eight. I realize nine carries is a small sample size to judge a back, but it's annoyingly inline with his career tendencies. His inability to come down with both balls thrown to him were very disappointing. The other backs did not accomplish much, and are unlikely to challenge Brown for many snaps. Mewelde Moore caught a nice little dump he stretched for 11 yards, but it was part of his niche role. Vick Ballard, a more likely challenger to Brown's spot, could not get anything started.  

WR
Austin Collie was a late scratch, and TY Hilton was also out, so the Colts started veterans Reggie Wayne and Donnie Avery with rookie LaVon Brazill and first-year Kris Adams shuttling in and out. Wayne appeared like his usual self, but was a victim of Luck's high throws, especially early. Avery was also a victim of frequent overthrows, but did not look like a polished or refined receiver. Ordinarily, I'd say he'd have to step it up to stay in the lineup, but without Collie and Hilton, the team has little choice but to run him out there and hope for the best. Brazill appeared a little overwhelmed by the experience. He caught a late-game pass, but had an incomplete wiped out by a penalty. Kris Adams appeared a little more comfortable, but not as talented.  

TE
After a quiet preseason, Coby Fleener was a pleasant surprise, looking like the team's best receiving option after Wayne. His blocking was not very good, but that's forgivable. Dwayne Allen was mostly invisible, but Dominique Jones showed some flash at fullback.

OL
This was such a debacle, I'm gonna devote and entire post to it.  

DL
Except for one third-quarter assist by Cory Redding, the starting defensive line was completely skunked on the stat sheet. But that does not mean they did not play decently. They tangled up linemen a bit, provided some containment and Redding, at least, offered a little push against Cutler. That all said, they played decently, not well. They'll have to step it up if they want to make a difference, and they will see much better o-lines than Chicago's.  

OLB
Dwight Freeney, as many predicted, looked somewhat out of place in the team's new scheme before leaving with an ankle problem. He was replaced by the outlaw Jerry Hughes, who totally disappeared. On the other side, however, Robert Mathis looked very much like he was designed for his new position, recording two sacks, a tackle for loss and even some decent coverage.

ILB 
As expected, Kavell Conner was stout against the run and terrible in coverage. His contributions as a blitzer were a pleasant surprise. Jerrell Freeman made two huge plays — an early pick-6 that put the Colts on the board and a great stuff of Devin Hester — but was also inconsistent and occasionally pushed around. He shows great potential, but I think the team will improve when Pat Angerer returns.  
DB 
This, too, deserves its own post.  

ST 
As does this.

Friday, September 7, 2012

Midweek notes

Here's what the official injury report had to say for the Colts today:

Pat Angerer LB Did Not Participate in Practice
Coltplay says: No surprise.

Austin Collie WR Full Participation in Practice
Coltplay says: I'm worried about his long-term health, and I'm sure the Colts will be very careful with him, especially early in the season. That is, if he even plays.

Delone Carter RB Limited Participation in Practice 
Coltplay says:

T.Y. Hilton WR Limited Participation in Practice
Coltplay says: Hmmm, not good, especially with Collie likely to be treated with kid gloves after all we know about his head issues. Hilton's development has already been delayed with injuries, so it's sad to see them continue.

Jerraud Powers CB Full Participation in Practice
Coltplay says: Whew. Without him, the secondary is a mess.

Cory Redding DE Full Participation in Practice
Coltplay says: Great, he's the veteran presence the line desperately needs.

Joe Reitz G Did Not Participate in Practice
Coltplay says: Uh oh, with Linkenbach moved back to tackle it's likely that human turnstile Seth Olsen will take his place.

Football Outsiders makes projections for selected skill-position players every year. This is what they think the Colts will do:

QB*
Chandler Harnish No prediction
Andrew Luck 497-307-3,543-18-17 passing 65-267-2 rushing
Drew Stanton 463-271-3,149-11-12 passing 43-50-2 rushing
Coltplay says: I think Luck will do somewhat better and Stanton, in the same position, somewhat worse.
*Unlike other positions, Football Outsiders' predictions for QBs assumes they'll start all 16 games.

HB
Vick Ballard No prediction
Donald Brown 184-752-4 rushing 20-246-1 receiving
Delone Carter 119-355-3 rushing 7-52-0 receiving
Mewelde Moore 33-120-1 rushing 20-154-0 receiving
Coltplay says: Brown's and Carter's numbers seem depressingly accurate, while Moore's befit a veteran third-down back. Although they had no prediction for Ballard (who I see contributing 250-300 yards rushing and perhaps a couple dozen receiving), they thought since-cut Deji Karim would chip in 29-94-0 rushing and 14-120-0 receiving.


WR
Kris Adams No prediction
Donnie Avery 16-226-1 receiving
LaVon Brazill No prediction
Austin Collie 54-607-2 receiving
T.Y. Hilton 14-161-1 receiving
Reggie Wayne 62-848-4 receiving
Coltplay says: Harsh. Football Outsiders has a major hate-on for Avery, judging him solely (it seems) on his poor performance with Tennessee last season. Those are good numbers for Collie if his head stays on, but Wayne will do better than that.

TE
Dwayne Allen 33-357-2 receiving
Coby Fleener 53-706-5 receiving
Dominique Jones No prediction
Coltplay says: A little ambitious for Fleener, I think, and a little mean for Allen.

In other news, the Colts waived CB Brandon King, DE James Aiono and S Mike Newton from injured reserve. None appeared to be part of the team's future.

Sunday, September 2, 2012

Looking at the 'final' roster

QB
12 Andrew Luck, 5 Drew Stanton, 8 Chandler Harnish
ColtPlay says: A Couldn`t be happier. All three looked better than I expected in the preseason, and Luck and Harnish should be together in town for at least a decade.

HB
31 Donald Brown, 26 Mewelde Moore, 33 Vick Ballard, 34 Delone Carter

ColtPlay says: C Uh oh, a collection of role players! Of course, that can work ... but only if the passing attack is fearsome. We

WR
87 Reggie Wayne, 17 Austin Collie, 11 Donnie Avery, 13 TY Hilton, 15 LaVon Brazill, 7 Kris Adams
ColtPlay says: C+ A lot of talent, but the veterans are brittle and the youngsters are inexperienced. Of course, none of this applies to Reggie, who will continue to be awesome.

TE
80 Coby Fleener, 83 Dwayne Allen, 46 Dominique Jones
ColtPlay says: C+ A treasure trove of young (and unproven) talent. Keep an eye on Jones, whose versatility and big-play ability are enticing.

T
74 Anthony Castonzo, 69 Winston Justice, 72 Jeff Linkenbach, 60 Mike Person
ColtPlay says: C+ I like the starters, but worry about the depth. Linkenbach is the fill-in guy at every position except center, but that doesn`t mean he`s good at it. Person has skills, but is raw, and, by the standards of his position, tiny.


G
76 Joe Reitz, 75 Mike McGlynn, 73 Seth Olsen

ColtPlay says: D- A huge weakness: Two guys who should be backups and one who shouldn`t be in the league. 

C
66 Samson Satele, 62 AQ Shipley
ColtPlay says: C Pretty good starter, pretty good backup.

DE
90 Cory Redding, 95 Fili Moala, 94 Drake Nevis, 91 Ricardo Mathews
ColtPlay says: C+ I`m surprised Mathews made the team, but the top three appear to be NFL quality.

NT
99 Antonio Johnson, 68 Martin Tevaseu


ColtPlay says: D- (maybe F) I like Mookie, but he`s not a starting NFL nose tackle, and Tevaseu hardly inspires me. But they just have to hold up for six games until Chapman is ready.

OLB
93 Dwight Freeney, 98 Robert Mathis, 92 Jerry Hughes,
97 Mario Addison, 55 Justin Hickman


ColtPlay says: Freeney and Mathis are too good not to find a way to the QB, and the kids have shown some flair.

ILB
51 Pat Angerer, 53 Kavell Conner, 50 Jerrell Freeman, 45 Moise Fokou, 54 Mario Harvey
ColtPlay says: Until Angerer comes back, this is an iffy spot. 

CB
25 Jerraud Powers, 23 Vontae Davis,21 Justin King, 20 Cassius Vaughn, 40 Josh Gordy
ColtPlay says: Wholesale changes looks like it means marked improvement.

S
41 Antoine Bethea, 28 Tom Zbikowski, 35 Joe Lefeged, 38 Sergio Brown


ColtPlay says: Not a position I`m worried about, keep an eye on Brown

K
4 Adam Vinatieri
ColtPlay says: It`ll be fun to watch the retirement tour.

P
1 Pat McAfee
ColtPlay says: The new face of the Colts, and that`s a good thing.

LS
45 Matt Overton


ColtPlay says: Sure it`s a gamble, but do you really think this is a Super Bowl team?

Saturday, September 1, 2012

Post cuts news

Of course, of the three new Colts, everyone will want to know about the nose tackle, because that's where the team is weakest. Martin Tevaseu (6012/308/5.46pd in 2010) is immensely strong. Forget about his 308 draft weight, he plays at 325-330 and once got as high as 417 in college. Other than that, there's not much to say. He's slow off the ball, his agility is nonexistent and his play recognition is so-so. Besides, I'm always leery of a guy who's been released five times in two years. Still, he's not bad at shedding despite no real pass-rush moves and is a pretty good tackler. Also on the plus side is the fact that he's a fine young man. But unless he shows me something new, I'd say he's little more than a space holder for the team until Josh Chapman returns from injury.

Former Patriot Sergio Brown (6005/210/4.49pd in 2010) is a very interesting prospect at safety. He played significant snaps last season for the Pats and was pretty darn good on defense (even in coverage, unlike most strong safeties these days) and was excellent on special teams. The only thing I saw that caused me pause was that he had a propensity for drawing penalties. If he can tighten up his game, he could be a major contributor for this team. It's not out of the realm of possibility that he could be groomed as a starter if he can  handle the mental/emotional aspects of the task. I'm glad they claimed him, even though I was rooting for Jermale Hines, the guy he replaced.

The third guy they claimed was Mike Person (6044/299/5.07c) who was a dominating tackle at Montana State of the FCS. But a 6'4, 299-pound tackle in the NFL? I worry. Of course, that might make you think that the Colts should bring him inside. Not so fast, Tiger, What was totally impressive about Person when he played was how he played in space, especially his outstanding kick'n'slide footwork. That's tackle stuff. And his greatest weakness was picking up second-level guys. That's guard stuff. He's a dancer, not a wrestler. The Colts, I think wisely, list him as a tackle. Despite his size constraints, I think his skill set works better there. Unless he somehow finds two inches and 30 pounds of muscle, I don't see person developing into a starter, but I think he can keep Andrew Luck out of the hospital if he has to play.

The practice squad has been set up, and I'm a tad disappointed not see an influx of new talent:

NT Chigbo Anunoby Everyone saw this one coming
OLB Jerry Brown They must have seen something I missed
G Hayworth Hicks They needed some depth here
TE Kyle Miller Ditto, he knows the playbook
WR Kashif Moore Picked up late in preseason, they want a longer look
S Latarrius Thomas this one I like a lot, Thomas is raw and full of potential

Of the other cuts, I would not have argued much. Maybe I would have kept Ross over Adams at WR because of his obvious big-play ability, but they mostly seemed astute.

Sunday, August 26, 2012

Colts trade for CB Vontae Davis

Wow, Jimmy Irsay really told the truth. The Colts traded a second-round pick to Miami for CB Vontae Davis (5111/203/4.40c in 2009). It actually represents the team's fourth trade for a corner this offseason. But there's a big difference with this one. The other guys they acquired were fringe: Justin King was the worst-rated corner in the NFL least season, Josh Gordy was actually below King on the Ram's depth chart, Cassius Vaughn had lost the third corner job in Denver and DJ Johnson never really saw the field for Philadelphia. Davis, however, has been a solid starter in the NFL.

Don't get me wrong, Davis has not emerged as the Champ Bailey-like star the Dolphins believed he would be after they drafted him in the first round of the 2009 draft (just two picks before the Bill Polian-led Colts selected starting-but-still-iffy HB Donald Brown), but he has been solid and, even better, he has gotten steadily better.

There are no truly weak points to Davis' game. He doesn't have the softest hands around and will drop the odd pick, and some don't think he gives his all in the run game, but that's debatable and I'm on the pro side. He is a very solid tackler in my book. In fact, I think he's an even better overall corner than the Colts' current No. 1, Jerraud Powers. I think that Powers' seniority and popularity with ownership, the coaching staff, players and fans will keep him at No. 1, but Davis will be a hell of a No. 2.

Philosophically, ColtPlay is against trading a draft pick for veteran, especially a high pick like a second rounder, but this deal makes sense. Davis is young, signed for a while and is a far better talent than the Colts could find in the second round next year.

So, as of today, the Colts have two solid starting corners. ColtPlay still has major concerns about the depth, but it's far better place to ponder whether DJ Johnson or Cassius Vaughn will win the No. 3 job than if they will win No. 2.

***

Coltplay is loathe to compare white players with white players simply because so many other media sources do so in a terribly inaccurate way. They will say things like Peyton Hillis is a lot like Danny Woodhead simply because both are white halfbacks even though they have nothing else in common.

Hillis should be likened to Brandon Jacobs and Woodhead to Darren Sproles.

But Coltplay has to break from philosophy (again!) because Griff Whalen could not be more like Danny Amendola. The sure hands, the wrestler's mentality, the sneaky quickness, it's all there. He's not like Wes Welker (who he will be compared to, trust me), whose game is based on the fact that his body is made of jelly, but he is almost exactly like Amendola, and I expect he will have a similar career.

Which, sadly also means injury. Amendola has missed significant time in his NFL career, not because he's not tough and durable, but because that kind of slot play exposes a player to injury. Whalen will probably follow suit. His preseason performance looked to ColtPlay like enough to make the team, but in his efforts, he fractured a foot bone and may be headed to the IR. That means, as you probably know, out for the season.

So if you count him and Austin Collie (concussions) out, that means the Colts have Reggie Wayne and draft Picks TY Hilton and :LaVon Brazill as sure things. You can also include veteran Donnie Avery, if he's healthy, for a roster spot as well. So who's the fifth if not Whalen? Is it Jeremy Ross who catches few but makes those few catches worthwhile/ Is is fan favorite Jabin Sambrano? Is it a waiver wire pick up?

***

Speaking of injuries, the Colts have lost nose tackle Brandon McKinney to an ACL injury. ColtPlay had very high hopes for McKinney when he signed, but he didn't show much and was unable to unseat Mookie Johnson, who was iffy at best, from the starting spot.

This injury actually puts the all-important nose tackle position in a state of crisis. Mookie is marginally competent at best. McKinney, an experienced reserve at worst, is gone. Josh Chapman, a draft pick and future of the position, is nursing his own ACL injury and will probably open the season on the PUP list. That leaves Chigbo Anunoby as the only backup behind the supremely shaky Mookie. I know Colts fans like Anunoby because he's a fun-loving, immensely powerful guy, but there's a lot more to playing nose tackle than being able to lift a Smart car over your head. From what I've seen, Anunoby looks like a strong guy in a football uniform, not a football player.

Colt fans, beware, this is your team's weakest point.

***

And the roster got a bit smaller, here's ColtPlay's look at the cuts:

CB Cameron Chism
CB Antonio Fenelus
CB Terrence Johnson
CB Chris Rucker
Four slower-than-you'd-like corners. Johnson had some experience, but didn't impress. I liked Rucker a lot, but for some reason, the team's new brass did not. Don't be too surprised if he emerges with another team.

S Matt Merletti
S David Caldwell
Merletti is a disappointment because his college play impressed me; Caldwell played last season and did not impress.

LB Mike Balogun
Camp body.

WR Quan Cosby
Cosby has NFL skills. Run him out there at receiver and he'll give you 40 catches. Make him your return man and he will give you a 20.0 average. And he will never do better than that. He's not what a rebuilding team needs. He's the kind of guy you call when you're 6-6 and a receiver or return man gets injured.

HB Alvester Alexander
He has size and speed, but is not an NFL player.\

G Jason Foster
A severely undersized Rhode Island left tackle treying to make it at guard.

P Brian Stahovich.
Did anyone really think a punter other than Pat McAfee would make this team?




Wednesday, August 22, 2012

Colts trade for CB Josh Gordy

I guess the important thing now for the Colts and fans is the Austin Collie situation. As always, ColtPlay is on the side of common sense when it comes to medical issues and I think Collie should throw it in. If he does, the Colts hope Donnie Avery can take his spot outside. There is a serious talent/experience shortage in the receiving corps if Avery cant step up. If Collie does not retire, we'll all cringe every time he goes down.

Next on the agenda has to be the trade for Josh Gordy (5105/195/4.40pd). Obviously I like the move, Gordy's not truly special in any way, but is a pretty competent corner, and an upgrade over much of the depth chart. But the fact that they felt a need to go get him indicates how very dissatisfied they were with the other corners on the roster. Aside from starter Jerraud Powers, they are a pretty unimpressive group. It looks like free agent signee Justin King will start on the other side. But neither DJ Johnson and Cassius Vaughn (both trade acquisitions) have stepped up, and the veterans prompted the emergency in the first place. Chris Rucker, who ColtPlay had high hopes for, remains mired at the far right of the depth chart. Vaughn, in particular, has been a disappointment.

And now a few observations from the second preseason game:

* It's pretty easy to walk all over the Rams, but a motivated Steelers team is a whole 'nother thing.

* Vick Ballard's numbers were not good, buy his hard running and quick starts made me think he's still well ahead of Delone Carter on the depth chart.

* The draft picks at receiver (TY Hilton and LaVon Brazill) came down to Earth a little, but I think both are pretty much what I expected, very talented but with a lot to learn about the pro game. I had wondered why Griff Whalen had such an enviable spot on the depth chart, but saw him look very smooth, quick and tough when he finally played. If he can stay healthy, he could very well turn out to have a long career as a slot guy.

* The offensive line looked bad, but they often do in preseason, especially when there are new starters. That said, I was shocked to see Seth Olsen stand out. My previous viewings of his work indicated that he had little or no NFL future. Maybe the new coaching staff has made a new player out of him.

* Mookie Johnson is not the nose tackle the team needs. It's annoying that Brandon McKinney has not mounted more of a push for the starting job. It's clear that the team sees Josh Chapman as the future at the position, but he won't be healthy for a while.

* Mario Addison impressed me quite a lot. Jerrell Freeman did not. 

* The less said about the DBs, the better.

Thursday, August 16, 2012

Colts sign ILB MIke Balogun

The Colts added more ILB depth (at least for camp) when they signed Mike Balogan (6000/240/4.80pd in 2010). It's hard to have much faith in a guy who's played for seven teams in two leagues over the last two seasons, but you never know. From what I've seen, he's a typical short-area throwback Mike type who is not a natural in coverage.

To make room for him, the Colts put corner/returner prospect Buddy Jackson on the injured/waived list.

Wednesday, August 15, 2012

Colts sign HB Alvester Alexander, put Scott Lutrus on IR

Because of minor injuries to HBs Mewelde Moore and Vick Ballard, the Colts have filled the empty roster spot that opened when ILB Scott Lutrus went on IR with HB Alvester Alexander (5103/209/4.39pd).

Alexander is a fast little halfback who is stronger than his size would suggest and has a fine ability to catch the ball. Still, he's not very creative with the ball in his hands and lacks the vision and wiggle to be special. He has some limited kick return experience.

In all likelihood, he is just a camp body; but the team will look at him closely as a practice squad guy and/or injury replacement.

Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Colts post second depth chart

I guess the big news is that they listed former CFL star Jerrell Freeman as the starter at WLB (4-3).WILB (3-4). Although Freeman did play well in the first preseason game, I still have my doubts. Moises Fokou is listed as his backup (he was last in line at SOLB on the last depth chart), but I think that's mainly because Fokou is still fairly new to the system.

Let's take a look:

QB 12 Andrew Luck, 5 Drew Stanton, 8 Chandler Harnish
No surprises here

HB 31 Donald Brown, 26 Mewelde Moore, 33 Vick Ballard, 34 Delone Carter, 32 Darren Evans, 39 Deji Karim
Or here. I think the first three are locks and the last two are in trouble unless Karim just destroys on kickoffs.

WR 87 Reggie Wayne, 15 LaVon Brazill, 84 Griff Whalen,10 Jeremy Ross,14 Quan Cosby
WR 17 Austin Collie, 11 Donnie Avery, 13 T.Y. Hilton, 85 Jabin Sambrano, 7 Kris Adams, 16 Jarred Fayson
Hmmm, I wouldn't get used to that lofty spot Mr. Avery. For a guy so far down the depth chart, Cosby got a lot of reps in the first preseason game.

TE 80 Coby Fleener, 86 Kyle Miller, 81 Andre Smith
H-B/FB 83 Dwayne Allen, 46 Dominique Jones
No changes here, but I think Jones made a strong case to make the team.

LT 74 Anthony Castonzo, 66 George Foster, 65 Ty Nsekhe
LG 76 Joe Reitz, 73 Seth Olsen, 68 Jason Foster
C 64 Samson Satele, 62 A.Q. Shipley, 60 Zane Taylor
RG 75 Mike McGlynn, 67 Mike Tepper, 61 Hayworth Hicks
RT 69 Winston Justice, 72 Jeff Linkenbach, 78 Steven Baker, 79 Justin Anderson
The big change here is that the competition at left guard is over, Reitz has won the job and Linkenbach has been exiled to backup right tackle. That's displaced Tepper to backup guard, which I think makes both positions stronger.

LDE 90 Cory Redding, 91 Ricardo Mathews, 68 James Aiono
NT/LDT 99 Antonio Johnson, 96 Brandon McKinney, 78 Chigbo Anunoby, 61 Josh Chapman
RDE/RDT 95 Fili Moala, 94 Drake Nevis, 65 Jason Shirley
Mookie surprised me with some great play on the nose. I thought he'd only been given the spot through seniority, but he really looks like a starter there.

SOLB 98 Robert Mathis, 92 Jerry Hughes, 58 Tim Fugger
SILB/MLB 53 Kavell Conner, 49 Greg Lloyd, 54 Mario Harvey
WILB/WOLB 50 Jerrell Freeman, 45 Moise Fokou, 59 Larry Lumpkin, 51 Pat Angerer
WOLB/RDE 93 Dwight Freeney, 97 Mario Addison, 57 Jerry Brown, 55 Justin Hickman
Ooooh, things do not look good for your Mr. Hickman.

LCB 21 Justin King, 42 Korey Lindsey, 37 Brandon King, 29 Antonio Fenelus, 39 Camerson Chism
RCB 25 Jerraud Powers, 43 D.J. Johnson, 20 Cassius Vaughn, 23 Terrence Johnson, 36 Chris Rucker, 40 Buddy Jackson
I don't see why Vaughn's been dropped to the third team, it could just be because they want to see new faces in there. And, yay, Rucker's pick moved him out of 11th place into 10th.

SS 28 Tom Zibkowski, 26 Jermale Hines, 30 David Caldwell, 47 Latarrius Thomas
FS 41 Antoine Bethea, 35 Joe Lefeged, 38 Mike Newton, 27 Matt Merletti
No changes here.

P 1 Pat McAfee, 3 Brian Stahovich
PK 4 Adam Vinatieri, 1 Pat McAfee
H 1 Pat McAfee
LS 48 Justin Snow, 45 Matt Overton
KR 15 LaVon Brazill, 13 T.Y. Hilton, 39 Deji Karim, 35 Joe Lefeged, 26 Mewelde Moore, 20 Cassius Vaughn, 28 Tom Zibkowski
PR 15 LaVon Brazill, 13 T.Y. Hilton, 84 Griff Whalen, 28 Tom Zibkowski
Or here

Monday, August 13, 2012

With Angerer out, someone has to step up

The Colts say Pat Angerer is out for about six weeks with a fractured foot. That will take him into the regular season. In the same game, reserve inside linebacker Scott Lutrus tore his ACL and is out for the season. Earlier, the Colts also lost AJ Edds for season.

It would be impossible for the Colts to replace Angerer's talent and football-readiness in-house, but there are plenty of candidates to fill his shoes in the short-term.

Moise Fokou
The only candidate with NFL starting experience, Fokou has other good attributes including a quick first step and ability to diagnoses very quickly. The knocks against him are that he lacks bulk and strength, and that he's not instinctive in coverage.

Greg Lloyd
Lloyd's sort of the opposite of Fokou. He lacks his teammate's quickness and diagnositic ability, but he's bigger, strong and — to my eye at least — better in coverage. 

Jerrell Freeman
This former small-school strong safety went to the CFL, where he was all-everything. But he's much smaller than you'd like to see. He has lots of good qualities but I just don't think he can stand up to teh wrestling matches he'd see play after play in the NFL.

Mario HarveyUnlike the better-known options, Harvey is big, fast AND strong. But that's where his resume kind of peters out. He hasn't show much understanding or feel for the game, and seems like a special-teamer at this point.

Larry Lumpkin Lumpkin has some qualities that make him an interesting long-range prospect, but I think depending on this rawest of rookies for a major role, even temporarily, would be a huge mistake.

Some wags have been throwing around the idea of the Colts re-signing veteran Gary Brackett, but I don't see it. He'd be as new to the system as everyone else was months ago, and signing him would increase ties to the old Polian regime — something Grigson is loathe to do.

The Colts will, of course scan the waiver wires, but depth, not a starter. Until Angerer can come back, it looks like the job is Fokou's to lose unless someone like Freeman plays well enough to force him to the bench.

Sunday, August 12, 2012

Colts beat Rams 38-3

Okay, I’m a total Andrew Luck believer now. Not that I was ever a doubter, I just didn’t realize exactly how far along in his development he was. His pocket presence is phenomenal, but what really stuck out was his accuracy. Yeah, he went 10 for 16 (62.5 percent), but I saw three obvious drops. His receivers are showing great potential, but aren’t at his level yet.

You could make the case that Luck’s first pass (a 63-yard score to Donald Brown) was really just a five-yard dump that Brown stretched, but that’s how football goes, and even if Brown were downed after he caught the ball, Luck still would have had an incredibly encouraging debut.

And don’t think Luck wasn’t being tested. While I realize the Ram’s secondary is not that impressive, their pass rush can be fierce, and he was having to be creative to keep from being sacked repeatedly.

Jerry Hughes had two sacks, that’s twice as many as his career total. I’m not entirely sold, obvious, after seeing his lack of instincts and maturity in his first two seasons, but it is very encouraging. Heck, he even looked like he knew what he was doing in coverage.

Yeah, Delone Carter had a very nice leap for a one-yard touchdown run, but I was much more impressed with Dominique Jones picking up a key first down with a rumble from the fullback position. In truth the backs (aside from Vick Ballard, and I’ll get to hm) didn’t show much when it came to running the ball except that they could get a tough yard here or there when they had to. Expect that to be a trend. Although the Colts would love to establish the run to keep defenses from focusing on Luck, I don’t think they have the horses in the backfield nor the big guys up front to do so. Think about it, would you rather have the ball in the hands of Reggie Wayne or Austin Collie or Brown?

Quan Cosby had some catches today, but he’s a long shot to make the roster, especially after that ugly drop. I think he is around as a low-upside, high-downside insurance policy against the youngsters not working out. But they appear to be working out. LaVon Brazill also had a drop, but was particularly impressive overall, and is making a strong bid for the third receiver spot.

Ballard, long a ColtPlay favorite, showed a great deal more initial quickness than I had expected from him. Yeah, it was against the Rams’ second team, but he’s not expected to be any better than the Colts’ second team. It will be interesting to see how his duel with Carter works out. I think Darren Evans really put himself in jeopardy with that fumble.

It’s clear the Rams were showing a great deal of disrespect for Justin King, who played horribly for them last year. But I think he stood up fairly well. He doesn’t look great, but adequate was better than I expected.

Jerrell Freeman stepped up and looked quite good inside. I’m not sure I’d depend on that all season, though.

Joe Reitz started over Jeff Linkenbach. My guess is Link starts Game 2, but if he doesn’t, the job is probably Reitz’s to lose. I also liked seeing Reitz go out on a pattern, something ColtPlay suggested earlier this week.

The DNPs were Donnie Avery, Jarred Fayson, Justin Hickman, Scott Lutrus, Tim Fugger, Josh Chapman, Justin Anderson, Griff Whalen and Cory Redding. No surprises.

I knew the depth chart was a lie; Moise Fokou played inside as expected. But with injuries to Pat Angerer and Scott Lutrus (and, of course, with AJ Edds out for the season), that could have been out of necessity.

I liked what I saw from Mario Addison and Fokou, but the other prospect linebackers were kind of invisible.

Drew Stanton looked sharp throwing, but lacks a starter’s ability to sense and escape the rush. Still, he represents a big upgrade over previous Colts backup quarterbacks. Chandler Harnish looked even better, but the Rams were so dispirited by then, the Colts were just playing catch.

Anyone surprised by Pat McAfee kicking field goals shouldn’t be, he has mentioned a few times that he fully expects to be the Colts’ kicker after Adam Vinatieri retires.

Only three penalties. That’s a great sign.

So nice to see Chris Rucker get that pick. They’ve treated him fairly shabbily, so he deserves something.








Thursday, August 9, 2012

Keep your eye on these Colts prospects

While everyone else is talking about Cassius Vaughn and LaVon Brazill, ColtPlay's been on board with those guys for a while. Instead, we here at ColtPlay (as usual) want to take things a bit deeper and look at a few guys who might make the roster, but may not actually be on your radar.

Jermale Hines: A late-season pickup last season, Hines didn't play on defense, but did look pretty good on specials. He's not stopwatch fast, but plays well in zone coverage and, more important, is a sure tackler and impact hitter. My feeling is that the Colts are looking for someone more in the mold of starter Tom Zbikowski in their backup strong safety, and that's why Hines has crept ahead of erstwhile starter David Caldwell on the depth chart.

Dominique Jones and/or Kyle Miller: A lot has been made about the Colts bringing Andre Smith in to be their blocking tight end, but I'm not sold. I think the concept is as out of date as a Reese McCall jersey. These days (and in the current system), tight ends are receivers who block as an afterthought. When you do need a blocker, you can always bring in an extra offensive lineman. Heck, Joe Reitz has better hands than Smith anyway.

After a productive D2 career, Jones bounced around the Arena and Indoor leagues, and produced at a variety of positions. That could prove very valuable as the Colts are expecting their tight ends to also play slot, wide and even fullback. Jones has experience at all of those positions.

Miller doesn't have that kind of versatility, but he does have great potential as a receiver. Though slow, he is fluid and nifty and blessed with soft hands. On the same Mount Union teams that produced Pierre Garçon and Cecil Shorts III, he caught 87 passes for 1,259 yards and 16 touchdowns, going 62-872-7 as a senior.

Not only are Jones and Miller better pass catchers than Smith, neither is all that bad a blocker, and Miller can also provide insurance at long snapper.

Steven Baker: There's a reason why Baker fetched the biggest signing bonus of all the 2012 undrafted free agents and why he's ahead of seventh-round pick Justin Anderson at right tackle — he's a freak of nature. Almost 6'8 with long arms, Baker can fly for a man his size with a 4.91 forty. He's got quick feet, is fluid and is in great condition — despite starting at tackle his final two seasons, Baker still played special teams.

But there's a catch, actually a couple of them. Years as a shot putter, basketball center and defensive lineman have slowed his development as a tackle. And, despite his gargantuan size, he does not play very strong at the point of attack.

It would take a while, but Baker could well develop into a starting-quality tackle. If the Colts want to make that gamble, they'll have to put him on the 53-man roster because he will not last on the practise squad.

Jason Shirley: Shirley has the talent to be a frequent Pro Bowler, but problems with alcohol, concentration, conditioning and overall dedication have held him back. After disappointing stints with the Bengals and Seahawks, he was signed by the Panthers — desperate for defensive tackle because their already talent-challenged corps had bee struck by a spate of injuries — late last season. He played well, if not dominantly, with three sacks and two quarterback hurries in just four games. But the Panthers cut him, and the Colts signed him.

He's in a great spot in Indy if he has his head screwed on right. Capable of playing 3-4 end or 4-3 tackle (and even the nose in a pinch), Shirley is not facing overwhelming competition. Of course Cory Redding has one spot nailed down, and Fili Moala and Drake Nevis are battling to start at the other. But after that, it's Shirley against James Aiono, who is big but could not get much playing time in college, and Ricardo Matthews, a Polian pick who plays at about 50 pounds lighter than the new regime would prefer.




Wednesday, August 8, 2012

More depth chart thoughts

Yesterday, I was surprised to see Griff Whalen so far up the Colts' depth chart at wide receiver. Not to dis Whalen, but he hadn't seen the field until today, while guys like Jabin Sambrano and Kris Adams had been putting in reps and showing off some big plays. It's likely that his rapport with Andrew Luck has helped him, as has the team's need for a nifty third-down slot specialist. Even so, I think it's unfair for a rookie (an undrafted one yet!) to be put in the sixth spot without him taking even a single practice rep.

Unless they play like demons, things do not look good for Jeremy Ross, Quan Cosby and Jarred Fayson, all of whom were signed by the Polian regime. Now that the top spots at both receiver and returner are beginning to become obvious, they seem out of it.

Instead, look for a heated battle between Donnie Avery, Whalen, Sambrano and Adams for the final spot or two. Obviously, Avery is the most ready to contribute right now, but at 28 with an ACL injury in his past, his upside is limited. Adams has kicked around the league for a while, liked by all but unable to stick anywhere. Sambrano is a tiny lightning bug who was unstoppable in the Big Sky, so he might actually be Whalen's biggest threat aside from, of course, Avery.

Get ready for a halfback-by-committee approach this season, but also steady yourself for the fact that Donald Brown will be chairman. He is, to put it quite simply, the Colts' best halfback. That's not to say he's a complete back, just the best overall. Besides, if he's a Polian pick and the new regime still has him listed as a starter at this point, they believe he's their man.

A note about Brown that has been bothering me. ColtPlay, like pretty well everybody else, reported that Brown played much better last season when he was accompanied by a fullback. That's not actually true, but rather a result of faulty logic. Since Brown played much better in the later part of the 2011 season, and the Colts used a fullback more frequently later in that season, we all assumed that the fullback helped Brown. But after re-examining both video and tracking numbers, I've realized Brown was only marginally a better rusher with another back in the field, and did not enjoy a boost bigger than the statistical norm. Still, the Colts have made it clear than Dwayne Allen will play fullback when necessary. 

I can't see why there's any question about Mewelde Moore at this point. He was outstanding in a limited role in Bruce Arians' offense last season for the Steelers, and should do the same now that Arians runs the Colts' attack. Sure he's another year older,but he was never fast, and does not have that many career carries. I don't see a dropoff at this point.

After them, it's the battle of the big backs, as Delone Carter and Vick Ballard slug it out. Some people rave about Carter, but I have yet to understand why. Still, that doesn't mean that Ballard is a clear favorite, either. I don't care about his forty, but I get really leery about big backs with a slow first step. I call it Ron Dayne syndrome. Big backs can smash forward in college ball because, well, they are big. But in the NFL, virtually all the defenders are big and strong, and it gets a lot harder to knock them down without a full head of steam. 

I read that Joe Reitz is taking first-team reps again at right guard. I don't think that means he's won the job so much that it's an ongoing competition. In fact, I think Link will win the competition because Reitz has yet to get any kind of handle on proper run blocking. But no matter who wins, it'll be a sore spot.

Another player many observers seem to like a lot more than I do is Kavell Conner. Sure he played well against the run in 2011, but was an atrocity in coverage and didn't play a snap inside, which is where he is now listed as a started. I really thought AJ Edds had a chance to unseat him before he was felled by an ACL injury. The next in line is former CFL standout Jerrell Freeman, but he lacks the necessary bulk. Forget the 234 pounds the Colts list him at, he plays closer to 220.

The interesting possibility inside is Mario Harvey. He runs like the wind and was very, very productive at Marshall, but is only 5'11, and the intricacies of the pro game (especially coverage) seem to elude him.

Like Freeman, Justin Hickman was a CFL standout, but he has definite NFL size. In his first two seasons, he had just seven sacks, but burst out for an all-star season with 13 in his third. He has lost of burst, but his pass-rush moves are rudimentary, and his other skills (run stopping, coverage) are, at best, uncertain. It's not out of the question that he could refine his game as a backup to Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis (both masters of the art), but when has that ever happened before?

Which brings me to my ridiculous conclusion, let's look at what the Colts will be looking at in the 2013 draft. Obviously, a starting-quality corner is at the top of the list, followed by guard, inside linebacker, halfback (which could be a much bigger priority if Brown craps out) and pass-rusher to eventually replace Freeney.

Since the Colts are likely to have a Top 10 pick, they'll have their pick of corners. Right now I'm nuts about North Carolina State's David Amerson.

Tuesday, August 7, 2012

Colts release first depth chart

You gotta feel sorry for Chris Rucker. After a pretty good career at Michigan State, he made a mistake by leaving a fender bender, which got him arrested. He was disappointed to see himself drafted in the sixth round. He was surely delighted, though, when he learned the team who called was the Colts, who everyone knew had major problems at cornerback, his position.

He gets a chance to play as a rookie, and, although he was not great, he played hard and showed some potential.

Then the management team changes and he finds himself listed as the eleventh of eleven corners on the Colts first unofficial camp depth chart. He probably wonders which Eagles' special teamer he'll be traded for this week.

Unlike minicamp depth charts, camp depth charts give a fairly strong idea of where the Colts expect a  player to play, and where they stand in the pecking order. There's no point this far along, in getting reps at a position you're not going to play.

Normally at this point, the rookies still take a backseat to veterans, but not so on this depth chart. In fact, any connection with the old regime looks like a black mark on your name.

Here are ColtPlay's observations and comments:

QB: Andrew Luck, Drew Stanton, Chandler Harnish
This has been pretty obvious since the last pick of the draft. Harnish is not ready for the No. 2 role, and his only problem making the team would be if the Colts think they can get by with two quarterbacks.  

RB: Donald Brown, Mewelde Moore, Vick Ballard, Delone Carter, Darren Evans, Deji Karim
Brown is the established starter (if not a star, by any means), and Moore is the third-down guy. Unlike many Colts fans, I'm not a big Carter guy, and am not surprised to see him looking up at Ballard. I would be surprised to see Evans or Karim knock him off the roster, though.

SE: Reggie Wayne, LaVon Brazill, Griff Whalen, Jeremy Ross, Quan Cosby
FL: Austin Collie, Donnie Avery, T.Y. Hilton, Jabin Sambrano, Kris Adams, Jarred Fayson
The top five have been pretty clear in camp, although Hilton's a bit farther back than Brazill due to injury. Avery could be in danger if the Colts think they have a younger option, and my eyes are on Sambrano and perhaps Adams. I was shocked to see Whalen listed so high, but I guess being Luck's friend has its benefits.
Note: The Colts list both positions as "WR." 

TE: Coby Fleener, Kyle Miller, Andre Smith
H-B/FB: Dwayne Allen, Dominique Jones
The surprise here is to see Miller listed ahead of Smith, who's much better known. In fact, many sites reported that Miller was in camp as a long-snapping prospect. Still, ColtPlay noticed he caught a lot of passes at Mount Union (including 62 as a senior), and has some speed. Allen should thrive in his new position, which will include a lot of time at fullback, blocking and even carrying the ball. Jones, who played all over the field in the Arena league, seems like an appropriate backup.
Note: The Colts list Allen's position as "F," as though they wanted to call him a fullback, but couldn't quite make the commitment.

LT: Anthony Castonzo, George Foster, Ty Nsekhe
LG: Jeff Linkenbach, Joe Reitz, Jason Foster
C: Samson Satele, A.Q. Shipley, Zane Taylor
RG: Mike McGlynn, Seth Olsen, Hayworth Hicks
RT: Winston Justice, Mike Tepper, Steven Baker, Justin Anderson
Let's go inside-out. The centers have aligned pretty much the way I expected, with Shipley likely to make Taylor expendable. I'm a little surprised at just how weak the guard position is. Grigson favorite McGlynn is nailed in at his spot, and it looks like Link will hold off Reitz on the other side. If Olsen makes the team, they are in serious trouble and neither Foster nor Hicks are that inspiring. Unless they move one of the tackle prospects over, they'll probably scan the waiver wires for prospects. The starting tackles are set and I think old George Foster makes the team as the swing backup. After that, it's a bit of a mess, but it was a mild surprise to see seventh-round pick Justin Anderson at the back of the pack. I'd love to see Baker make it, because I don't see him lasting on the practise squad.
 
LDE: Cory Redding, Ricardo Matthews, James Aiono
NT: Antonio Johnson, Brandon McKinney, Chigbo Anunoby, Josh Chapman
RDE/DT: Fili Moala, Drake Nevis, Jason Shirley
The big surprise here is to see Moala ahead of Nevis, but everything I've heard out of camp about him has been positive. Mookie's still the top nose, which I think is more of an indictmant of McKinney than an endorsement of him. Chapman makes the team, for sure, but he's still hurting.

SOLB: Robert Mathis, Jerry Hughes, Tim Fugger, Moise Fokou
SILB/MLB: Kavell Conner, Mario Harvey, Scott Lutrus, Greg Lloyd
WILB/WOLB: Pat Angerer, Jerrell Freeman, Larry Lumpkin
WOLB/RDE: Dwight Freeney, Justin Hickman, Mario Addison, Jerry Brown
No real surprises here, although both Fokou and Lloyd could move ahead soon. Keep your eyes on former CFL standouts Freeman and, especially, Hickman. Fugger's on the PUP, but should stick.
Note: The Colts list Freeney's position as "rush."

LCB: Cassius Vaughn, Justin King, Brandon King, Cameron Chism, Buddy Jackson
RCB: Jerraud Powers, Korey Lindsey, Terrence Johnson, D.J. Johnson, Antonio Fenelus, Chris Rucker
Ah, the much-debated position. It looks for now that the NFL veterans (at least those whose experience came with other teams), hold the upper hand. But word is that Lindsey is getting his butt handed to him deep regularly in camp, so who knows.

SS: Tom Zbikowski, Jermale Hines, David Caldwell, Latarrius Thomas
FS: Antoine Bethea, Joe Lefeged, Mike Newton, Matt Merletti
The only things I noticed here was that Hines moved ahead of Caldwell (which is good), and that Merletti has yet to make any kind of a splash (which is not).

K: Adam Vinatieri, Pat McAfee
P: Pat McAfee, Brain Stahovich
LS: Justin Snow, Matt Overton
No surprises here, although the long-snapper battle will be one to watch.

KR: LaVon Brazill, T.Y. Hilton, Joe Lefeged, Cassius Vaughn, Deji Karim, Mewelde Moore, Tom Zbikowski
PR: LaVon Brazill, T.Y. Hilton, Griff Whalen, Tom Zbikowski
Since all the top competitors here are likely to make the team, it makes sense to see the best guys at each spot rather than a single return specialist who does both.