Bargains, reaches and who cares what the media says?

I read a lot of draft stuff and there`s only one thing that really bothers me. It`s when people say things like “Tyson Alualu at No. 10? They coulda got him in the second round!” I’m not saying I predicted Alualu that high, or that I thought it was a good pick, just that there is no way that we as fans (or those in media) can accurately predict when or where a player might be drafted. The first few are easy, but after that it’s anyone’s guess. Maybe a guy gets caught bad-mouthing his former coach, or scouts find out that he was playing hurt as a senior. These teams, my friends, know more than us and certainly more than Street & Smith’s or whomever you’re taking your cues from.

That brings up Bill Polian’s well-known habit of drafting players “out of the blue” or, actually, long before draft predictors had imagined. Usually it has worked out well for him, but sometimes it hasn’t. Let’s look at his last three (admittedly quite poor) drafts:

Players drafted before the media thought they would

2 Pat Angerer LB Fifth

3 Kevin Thomas CB Fourth

4 Jacques McClendon G Undrafted

5 Brody Eldridge TE Undrafted

1 Donald Brown HB Second

3 Jerraud Powers CB Sixth

7 Pat McAfee P Undrafted

2 Mike Pollak C Undrafted

3 Phillip Wheeler LB Fourth

4 Jacob Tamme TE Fifth

6 Tom Santi TE Undrafted

7 Jamey Richard C Undrafted

Players drafted in the round the media predicted

1 Jerry Hughes DE First

7 Ricardo Mathews DT Seventh

7 Kavell Conner LB Seventh

7 Ray Fisher CB/KR Seventh

2 Fili Moala DT Second

4 Austin Collie WR Fourth

7 Jaimie Thomas G Seventh

Players drafted after the media thought they would be

5 Terrance Taylor DT Fourth

6 Curtis Painter QB Fifth

5 Marcus Howard DE Fourth

If you look at the first group, you’ll see some bums (Brown, Pollak and Wheeler stand out), but some very good picks. The second group also has a mix, but the third is nothing but junk.

So beware the “bargain” of a player drafted after the media predicts (like Mike Doss, Kendyll Pope and Anthony Davis) and keep an open mind about “reaches” (like Edgerrin James, Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis and Dallas Clark).