Prospect watch: Zach Clayton

Zach Clayton DT Auburn

Height: 6020 Weight: 299 Ten: 1.71 Twenty: 2.71 Forty: 4.85 Bench: 27 Vertical: 33.5 Long jump: 10’8 Shuttle: 4.44 Three-cone: 7.37 (Pro day)

Career stats: 41 tackles, 24 assists, 16-67 tackles for loss, 6.5-42 sacks, 1 pass broken up, 10 hurries

2010 stats: 18 tackles, 10 assists, 8-25 tackles for loss, 1-2 sack, 1 pass broken up, 8 hurries

Likely draft round: Sixth

Analysis: A bunch of sites have been calling Clayton “the best prospect you haven’t heard of.” I hate it when I read stuff like that. Rilly? I didn’t happen to notice the guy playing next to Nick Fairley on national champion Auburn? I guess I shouldn’t have a blog then. That bit of nastiness out of the way, I can say that I have seen Clayton and have been impressed by his athleticism and his tenacity. Obviously, playing next to fairley has helped him statistically, but Clayton’s a pretty good player in his own right. He’s not as good at anchoring as some, but has good hand use and a quick start. But what really stands out is his pursuit skills. Sometimes he looks like a giant linebacker. “Zach Clayton is running down the field chasing guys down X amount of yards past the line of scrimmage — it’s phenomenal,” said Head Coach Gene Chizik. “It’s just great effort. He’s been a real force for us ... down there inside.” A son of two coaches, Clayton is an overall good kid and has earned an economics degree. Probably projects best as a 3-4 end in the NFL, but he’d play inside in Indy.

Chance of becoming a Colt: Pretty good.

Prospect watch: Phil Taylor

Phil Taylor DT Baylor

Height: 6032 Weight: 334 Ten: 1.77 Twenty: 2.87 Forty: 5.09 Bench: 31 Vertical: 29.5 Long jump: 8’4 Shuttle: 4.77 Three-cone: 7.75 (Combine)

Career stats: 55 tackles, 52 assists, 16-57 tackles for loss, 5.5-36 sacks, 4 passes broken up, 1-1-0 interception, 8 hurries, 1 forced fumble, 2-0-0 fumble recoveries (Includes one season at Penn State)

2010 stats: 35 tackles, 27 assists, 7-27 tackles for loss, 2-18 sacks, 4 passes broken up, 3 hurries, 1 forced fumble

Likely draft round: First

Analysis: If the Colts drafted Taylor, fans would drop to their knees and pray to Polianus, the God of Wish Fulfillment. See, Colts fans have been begging for a big-butt, blocker-devouring defensive tackle since the days of Herb Orvis (or at least Tony Siragusa). I’d even have to admit, I too would be pleasantly impressed. But it is so not gonna happen. Taylor is without doubt a specimen and a talent, but he’s also a major character question and, with so many teams running the 3-4 and desperate for a nose tackle, almost certainly going to be drafted well before his actual value. And whenever Polian has drafted a fat man (Terrance Taylor, Steve Sciullo, Matt Johnson), it has ended in misery.

Chance of becoming a Colt: Slim

Will there be any good tackles left at No. 22?

Let’s take a look at how badly the teams selecting before Indianapolis in the first round need an offensive tackle

1. Carolina: Jordan Gross (7.00 sacks allowed and three penalties)

One of the few places, they don’t need help

Chance of selecting an offensive tackle: Almost none

2. Denver: Ryan Clady (7.00 sacks allowed and five penalties)

See above

Chance of selecting an offensive tackle: Almost none

3. Buffalo: Demetrious Bell (5.25 sacks allowed and five penalties)

Bell improved in 2010, and they have more pressing needs

Chance of selecting an offensive tackle: Almost none

4. Cincinnati: Andrew Whitworth (2.50 sacks allowed and seven penalties)

Whitworth’s an excellent player, one of the few Cincinnati has

Chance of selecting an offensive tackle: Almost none

5. Arizona: Levi Brown (7.00 sacks allowed and five penalties)

Brown`s certainly not a great tackle by any means, but this team has bigger holes to fill

Chance of selecting an offensive tackle: Low

6. Cleveland: Joe Thomas (4.50 sacks allowed and two penalties)

An elite talent; the Browns could use a right tackle, but this is too early to take one

Chance of selecting an offensive tackle: Almost none

7. San Francisco: Joe Staley (3.00 sacks allowed and six penalties)

No problem here

Chance of selecting an offensive tackle: Almost none

8. Tennessee: Michael Roos (10.00 sacks allowed and four penalties)

Inflated sack numbers aside, Roos is not the Titans`problem

Chance of selecting an offensive tackle: Low

9. Dallas: Doug Free (5.00 sacks allowed and nine penalties)

Free’s a natural right tackle, and Colombo looks like he`s nearing the end of the line

Chance of selecting an offensive tackle: Medium

10. Washington: Trent Williams (11.50 sacks allowed and six penalties)

Some rough times for the rookie, but he’ll be there for a while

Chance of selecting an offensive tackle: Almost none

11. Houston: Duane Brown (6.50 sacks allowed and four penalties)

It took a while but this former first rounder seems solid

Chance of selecting an offensive tackle: Almost none

12. Minnesota Bryant McKinnie (5.00 sacks allowed and two penalties)

He’s still at the top of his game

Chance of selecting an offensive tackle: Low

13. Detroit: Jeff Backus (4.00 sacks allowed and three penalties)

Backus is an under-rated tackle, but is getting on in years and might be better suited to right tackle where incumbent Gosder Cherilus is a question mark due to microsurgery

Chance of selecting an offensive tackle: Medium-high

14. St Louis: Roger Saffold (3.50 sacks allowed and eight penalties)

Not replacing him soon

Chance of selecting an offensive tackle: Almost none

15. Miami: Jake Long (6.00 sacks allowed and eight penalties)

An elite player who’s still young

Chance of selecting an offensive tackle: Almost none

16. Jacksonville: Eugene Monroe (6.50 sacks allowed and nine penalties)

Firmly entrenched

Chance of selecting an offensive tackle: Almost none

17. New England (from Oakland): Matt Light (10.00 sacks allowed and four penalties)

Light is getting older, but his heir apparent is already on the roster in starting right tackle Sebastian Vollmer – still, it’s not out of the question that they could draft a young tackle not just because they want one, but also to screw with the Colts

Chance of selecting an offensive tackle: Medium

18. San Diego: Mark McNeill (2.50 sacks allowed and one penalty)

Great player

Chance of selecting an offensive tackle: Almost none

19. New York Giants: David Diehl (7.50 sacks allowed and two penalties)

Realistically, he’s a guard, but he holds up well outside, he’s getting pretty old, though

Chance of selecting an offensive tackle: Medium

20. Tampa Bay: Donald Penn (5.50 sacks allowed and three penalties)

No problem here

Chance of selecting an offensive tackle: Almost none

21. Kansas City: Brandon Albert (7.75 sacks allowed and seven penalties)

Another out-of-place guard, Albert could be replaced but Chiefs have a lot of needs

Chance of selecting an offensive tackle: Medium-high

And a few who might think of trading up

23. Philadelphia: Jason Peters (2.00 sacks allowed and seven penalties)

No problem here

Chance of selecting an offensive tackle: Almost none

24. New Orleans: Jermon Bushrod (6.00 sacks allowed and six penalties)

They like him, have needs elsewhere

Chance of selecting an offensive tackle: Low

25. Seattle: Russell Okung (4.00 sacks allowed and three penalties)

Rookie nailed down the position last year

Chance of selecting an offensive tackle: Almost none

26. Baltimore: Michael Oher (7.00 sacks allowed and eleven penalties)

Despite the hype, Oher is better off on the not-so-blind side, a replacement could be necessary, but they also needa speed receiver

Chance of selecting an offensive tackle: Medium-high

27. Atlanta: Sam Baker (5.25 sacks allowed and five penalties)

No Problem

Chance of selecting an offensive tackle: Almost none

28. New England: Matt Light (10.00 sacks allowed and four penalties)

See No. 17

Chance of selecting an offensive tackle: Medium

29. Chicago: Frank Omiyale (13.00 sacks allowed and seven penalties)

Needs replacing

Chance of selecting an offensive tackle: High

30. New York Jets: D`Brickashaw Ferguson (2.00 sacks allowed and five penalties)

Not a problem, but they need a right tackle

Chance of selecting an offensive tackle: Medium-low

31. Pittsburgh: Max Starks (1.00 sack allowed and one penalty)

Don’t let the stats fool you, he only played 7 games in 2010 and is a free agent

Chance of selecting an offensive tackle: Medium

32. Green Bay: Chad Clifton (8.50 sacks allowed and five penalties)

Played well in 2010 once he overcame injuries, but is 34 years old

Chance of selecting an offensive tackle: Medium

Kicking the tires does not mean a sale

Here at ColtPlay, it’s considered something of a duty to compile a list of players the Colts scout, interview or show some other interest in before the draft. We’ll do it again this year, but it may not be as helpful as you might think. Take a quick look at the guys reported by various media sources to have been scouted by the Colts in 2008:

7th/Bernard Morris QB Marshall (6030, 223, 4.68c/4.61pd)

7th/Blake Mitchell QB South Carolina (6022, 207, 4.78)

UDFA/Craig Hormann QB Columbia (6041, 228, 5.03)

UDFA/Mark Nicolet QB Hillsdale (6013, 220, 4.84)

4th/Jalen Parmele HB Toledo (5114, 224, 4.47)

5th/Thomas Brown HB Georgia (5083, 204, 4.51c/4.42pd)

7th/Alley Broussard HB Missouri Southern State (6002, 235, 4.75pd)

UDFA/Justin Beaver HB Wisconsin-Whitewater (5081, 196, 4.41)

UDFA/Kareem Huggins HB Hofstra (5087, 185, 4.47)

UDFA/Allen Ervin HB Lambuth (5106, 226, e4.55)

2nd/Mario Manningham WR Michigan (5116, 181, 4.59c/4.42pd)

2nd/Donnie Avery WR Houston (5110, 192, 4.43c/4.33pd)

3rd/Eddie Royal WR Virginia Tech (5095, 184, 4.39)

5th/Marcus Smith WR New Mexico (6013, 221, 4.50c/4.54pd)

6th/Luke Swan WR Wisconsin (5117, 195, 4.59)

UDFA/Jayson Foster WR Georgia Southern (5071, 169, 4.41)

UDFA/Pierre Garcon WR Mount Union (5117, 210, 4.42pd)

UDFA/James Banks WR Carson-Newman (6025, 210, 4.58)

UDFA/Tommy Ellingworth WR Augustana (5101, 183, 4.42)

5th/Joey Haynos TE Maryland (6075, 259, 4.87c/4.79pd)

7th/Michael Peterson TE Northwest Missouri State (6021, 247, 4.59)

UDFA/Paul Cleaver TE New Mexico State (6035, 243, 4.63)

UDFA/Joe Reitz TE Western Michigan (6061, 261, e4.85)

2nd/Gosder Cherilus T Boston College (6063, 314, 5.14c/5.00pd)

2nd/John Greco T Toledo (6046, 305, 5.31c/5.16pd)

3rd/Anthony Collins T Kansas (6055, 317, 5.54c/5.35pd)

7th/Kerry Brown G Appalachian State (6053, 308, 5.38)

7th/Mackenzy Bernardeau G Bentley (6041, 306, 5.25pd)

UDFA/Mike Martinez C New Mexico State (6037, 335, e5.30)

UDFA/Shawn McMakin G Hofstra (6030, 287, e5.25)

3rd/Marcus Howard DE Georgia (6004, 237, 4.47c)

6th/Titus Brown DE Mississippi State (6024, 246, 4.86c/4,82pd)

6th/Jeremy Geathers DE UNLV (6021, 256, 4.97c/4.74pd)

7th/Jameel McClain DE Syracuse (6006, 249, 4.73pd)

7th/Andy Studebaker DE Wheaton College (6030, 251, 4.61)

UDFA/Curtis Johnson DE Clark-Atlanta (6025, 242, 4.69c/4.60pd)

UDFA/Dan Davis DT Connecticut (6014, 287, 4.96)

UDFA/Shemiah LeGrande DT Hofstra (6001, 288, e5.00)

UDFA/Mike Czerwien DE Waynesburg (5080, 225, e4.55)

3rd/Tavares Gooden ILB Miami (6012, 234, 4.62c/4.57pd)

4th/Jo-Lonn Dunbar ILB Boston College (6004, 231, 4.79c/4.85pd)

5th/Joe Mays ILB North Dakota State (5110, 245, 4.87)

6th/Weston Dacus ILB Arkansas (6011, 237, 4.60)

6th/Danny Lansanah ILB Connecticut (6005, 251, 4.72)

7th/Jon Banks OLB Iowa State (6024, 220, 4.76)

UDFA/Jordan Senn OLB Portland State (5114, 224, 4.53)

UDFA/Jonna Lee ILB Charleston Southern (6011, 243, e4.85)

UDFA/Gian Villante ILB Hofstra (6016, 234, 4.64)

4th/Tyrell Johnson SS Arkansas State (5117, 207, 4.41)

5th/Jack Williams CB Kent State (5090, 186, 4.43c/4.32pd)

UFDA/Joe Fields FS Syracuse (6002, 205, e4.60)

UFDA/Curtis Cutts FS Central Michigan (5117, 216, 4.62):

UFDA/Dowayne Davis SS Syracuse (5113, 202, 4.46)

7th/Piotr Czech K Wagner College (6044, 212)

UFDA/Dan Zeidman P Idaho State (6003, 205, 4.78)

You’ll notice that just two of them – Marcus Howard and Pierre Garcon – were drafted by the Colts. That’s two of 55 guys scouted (3.64 percent) and two of the Colts’ nine draft picks (22.22 percent), so tallying who they looked at is just not all that accurate. Curtis Johnson and Jordan Senn signed with the Colts as undrafted free agents, and Joe Reitz ended up with the Colts after a position change and stops in Baltimore and Miami. Sadly, Mike Czerwein died in a tragic construction accident. And am I the only one who forgot they looked a guy named Justin Beaver?

Backs, both corner and half

Footballoutsiders.com is one of a couple of sites that tracks every NFL play. They’re usually pretty good and I read it frequently. They rated the best and worst cornerbacks in the league last year. They put Justin Tryon (I still can’t believe he cost just a seventh-round pick) and Jerraud Powers in the rare air. I haven’t tallied all the numbers up, but my eyeball test kind of agrees. When he was healthy, Powers looked like a No. 1 corner and supported the run really well. Tryon was murder on slot guys and held up well outside; he looked very much like the player Tim Jennings. And they placed Jacob Lacey amongst the worst. I’m with them on Lacey, who looked awful in 2011, but it should be kept in mind that the same organization rated Lacey about on par with Powers in 2009 (they actually used the word "amazing" to describe his rookie performance). Injuries affect people in different ways, and in all likelihood, Lacey should bounce back to at least decent.

Speaking of injuries, a constant stream of them limited all of the expected contributors significantly. Since I don’t see that happening again, I think the Colts are very strong at the position headed into 2011. The outside starters should be Powers and veteran Kelvin Hayden. Hayden has not played as well as expected when he signed a huge contract in 2008, but he’s still definitely an NFL starter when healthy. Tryon is a fine No. 3, and the last two spots should be taken up by Lacey, 2009 third-round draft pick Kevin Thomas or one of the free agents signed last year (Cornelius Brown, Terrence Johnson and Jordan Hemby). Brown, who played significant minutes in 2010 because of injuries, stood up fairly well in his NFL debut, certainly outplaying Lacey.

So unless some great deal falls into their laps, I would recommend the Colts don’t draft a corner. Many people will disagree with me, of course, saying that Hayden isn’t durable enough or the other guys can’t be depended upon, but I’m sticking to it. The Colts have so many other needs – including a sucking chest wound at both offensive tackle spots – that spending a pick on a position with proven players like Hayden, Power and Tryon and good prospects in Lacey, Thomas and Brown doesn’t make sense.

That said, I would caution fans not to take every stat published by online too seriously. Profootballfocus.com, which I generally prefer to Footballoutsiders.com, made some Colts fans happy when it published it elusiveness ratings. Naturally, none of the Colts halfbacks made it, but Donald Brown did make the list of runners who had the highest percentage of yards after first contact. Many Colts fans interpreted this as an indication that Brown would be a good or even great runner if he had better blocking. But if you look at the rest of the players on that same list and only one of them – LaGarrette Blount – was a full-time starter or even close to an elite back.

In truth, Brown had a horrible second season, losing his spot to slow Javarris James and elderly Dom Rhodes. As a former first-round pick, I think Brown deserves another year to prove his worth, but I still think an early pick should be used on a halfback, preferably one with speed, as the Colts have had no real zip in their running attack since before Edgerrin James’ ACL injury. Brown had four runs of 20 or more yards last season (including a 49 yarder that accounted for almost 10 percent of his total output), while Addai had just one in 116 carries. That’s a sad total. Even Peyton Manning tied him, and he only had 18 “carries.”

A defensive tackle you might not have on your list

Okay here’s a defensive tackle prospect you may not have heard of. Let’s first go to production:

A three-year starter, he made 71 tackles, 54 assists, 27.5 tackles for loss, 17 sacks, 1 pass broken up, 5 forced fumbles, 2 fumble recoveries, 1 interception and a blocked field goal. Most of that production (10 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks) came as a senior. He played with a broken hand as a junior, but bounced back strong. It was Sunbelt action, which is pretty darn competitive.

Measurables? 6’0¾, 295 pounds, 4.91 forty, 28 reps, 30.5 vertical, 9’2 long jump, 4.73 shuttle and a 7.70 three-cone.

Heck of a guy, never been in trouble, earned an accounting degree. Former linebacker and offensive lineman. Also wrestled at the collegiate level. Has played every defensive line position, including nose. Fires up teammates. Fun-loving, likable kid.

Colts fans, check out Arkansas State’s Bryan Hall.

Bargains, reaches and who cares what the media says?

I read a lot of draft stuff and there`s only one thing that really bothers me. It`s when people say things like “Tyson Alualu at No. 10? They coulda got him in the second round!” I’m not saying I predicted Alualu that high, or that I thought it was a good pick, just that there is no way that we as fans (or those in media) can accurately predict when or where a player might be drafted. The first few are easy, but after that it’s anyone’s guess. Maybe a guy gets caught bad-mouthing his former coach, or scouts find out that he was playing hurt as a senior. These teams, my friends, know more than us and certainly more than Street & Smith’s or whomever you’re taking your cues from.

That brings up Bill Polian’s well-known habit of drafting players “out of the blue” or, actually, long before draft predictors had imagined. Usually it has worked out well for him, but sometimes it hasn’t. Let’s look at his last three (admittedly quite poor) drafts:

Players drafted before the media thought they would

2 Pat Angerer LB Fifth

3 Kevin Thomas CB Fourth

4 Jacques McClendon G Undrafted

5 Brody Eldridge TE Undrafted

1 Donald Brown HB Second

3 Jerraud Powers CB Sixth

7 Pat McAfee P Undrafted

2 Mike Pollak C Undrafted

3 Phillip Wheeler LB Fourth

4 Jacob Tamme TE Fifth

6 Tom Santi TE Undrafted

7 Jamey Richard C Undrafted

Players drafted in the round the media predicted

1 Jerry Hughes DE First

7 Ricardo Mathews DT Seventh

7 Kavell Conner LB Seventh

7 Ray Fisher CB/KR Seventh

2 Fili Moala DT Second

4 Austin Collie WR Fourth

7 Jaimie Thomas G Seventh

Players drafted after the media thought they would be

5 Terrance Taylor DT Fourth

6 Curtis Painter QB Fifth

5 Marcus Howard DE Fourth

If you look at the first group, you’ll see some bums (Brown, Pollak and Wheeler stand out), but some very good picks. The second group also has a mix, but the third is nothing but junk.

So beware the “bargain” of a player drafted after the media predicts (like Mike Doss, Kendyll Pope and Anthony Davis) and keep an open mind about “reaches” (like Edgerrin James, Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis and Dallas Clark).

Stop the virtual presses: I agree with Mel Kiper!

Mel Kiper called the Colts “one of the worst teams in the NFL without Peyton Manning” and the esteemed Trent Dilfer (no Manning he) agreed. Let’s see if we agree.

QB Peyton Manning (if re-signed) A+ Option is Curtis Painter F

RB Joseph Addai (if re-signed) C+ Option is Donald Brown D-

FL Pierre Garcon C+

SE Reggie Wayne A

3rd WR Austin Collie A (if healthy)

TE Dallas Clark A

H-B Brody Eldridge B-

RT Ryan Diem C- declining

RG Mike Pollak D-

C Jeff Saturday A- declining

LG Jamey Richard or Kyle DeVan (if re-signed) D-

LT Charlie Johnson (if re-signed) D+ Option is Jeff Linkenbach D-

RDE Dwight Freeney A

RDT Anthony Johnson C+ (if healthy)

LDT Fili Moala C+

LDE Robert Mathis B+

RLB Clint Session (if re-signed) or Kavell Conner C+ with potential

MLB Gary Brackett B- declining, but Angerer could step in

LLB Pat Angerer B- with potential

RCB Jerraud Powers B

LCB Kelvin Hayden B

3rd CB Justin Tryon B-

SS Melvin Bullitt (if re-signed) C+ Option is one of several D-

FS Antoine Bethea B+

K Adam Vinatieri (if re-signed) B declining Option is Brett Swenson D with potential

P Pat McAfee B+

LS Justin Snow B

KR Devin Moore C+ (if healthy)

PR Blair White C

Looks like they have a point

Melvin, Mookie and a dude named DeMario

• Don't be too surprised if you don't see Melvin Bullitt in a Colts uniform next season. "I can't see myself coming back (to the Colts) other than with a long-term contract," said Bullitt. "Just to be quite honest, it's business." Big words from a sometime starter at safety. Bullitt's a pretty handy player and a fan favorite, but I can't remember the last time a player called Bill Polian out and got the better of it. And I'm pretty sure the Colts defense is looking for more of a thumper at the position.

• More evidence the Colts will not draft a defensive tackle in the first round. Polian openly praised Fili Moala for his 2010 performance. I have to admit that Moala, despite not recording a single sack, did show some penetration, but was so-so against the run. So that's one starter.

The other is also probably already on the roster too. Polian offered "tenders" to Anthony "Mookie" Johnson, Daniel Muir and Eric Foster, all former starters, and has soph Ricardo Mathews as well as recent signee DeMario Pressley (more on him later). Of them, the interesting one is my old favorite, Mookie. He played well in 2009, but came out of the gate injured in 2010. But in the four games he was not listed on the injury report, the Colts went 4-0, allowed an average of just 79.5 rushing yards and held the Titans to 67 and 51 yards rushing.

So, like it or not, the Colts will almost certainly enter 2010 with Moala and Johnson as starters.

• Don't overlook Pressley. In college, he had almost as much hype as teammate Mario Williams, later a No. 1 pick and a very good player in the NFL. Pressley had some problems, though. Although he didn't miss any games, he played hurt a lot and wasn't all that productive (47 games, 36 starts, 52 tackles, 59 assists, 17.5 tackles for loss, 4 sacks, 6 hurries, 1 forced fumble, 1 fumble recovery and 2 picks). Scouts began to question his technique, strength, durability and dedication. After a very good Combine performance, many fans and media expected him to be a third-round pick in the 2008 draft, but he went to New Orleans in the fifth.

Pressley missed his first season after a knee injury put him on injured reserve. He played in seven games in 2009, recording 15 tackles and three tackles for loss. Despite a pretty good preseason (2 tackles, 5 assists, 1 sack, 3 hurries and 1 tackle for loss), the Saints tried to stash him on the practice squad. The Texans grabbed him and he really didn't catch on there, appearing briefly in a couple of games and recording no stats.

I'm not saying Pressley is the second coming of John Randle. But he does have an NFL starter's body and, if he is ever going to succeed in the NFL, it will be in Indy in 2011. Don't count him out right away. Measurables: 6031/301, 1.65 ten, 2.86 twenty, 5.09 forty, 28 reps, 25.5 vertical, 8'4 long jump, 4.72 shuttle, 7.15 three-cone.

Bill Polian and that pesky defensive tackle problem

A look at the defensive tackle drafted by Bill Polian. It won’t boost the confidence of most Colts fans hoping to get an immediate starter in the 2011 draft.

2010

7/238 Ricardo Mathews 8G/0GS* Too early to call, but one tackle as a rookie does not impress

2009

2/56 Fili Moala 26G/17GS* Was awful as a rookie, impressive as a soph

4/136 Terrance Taylor 0G/0GS Swing and a miss, never made it out of training camp

2008

None

2007

3/98 Quinn Pitcock 9G/1GS Promising as a rookie, he quit football to play World of Warcraft; his comeback fizzled

2006

None

2005

None

2004

None

2003

None

2002

2/42 Larry Tripplett 92G/62GS (60G/30GS with Colts) Not a bad player, but one the Colts often sought to replace

6/182 David Pugh 4G/1GS Notable for recording more penalties than tackles in his short career

2001

None

2000

4/122 Josh Williams 73G/48GS Something of a whipping boy for Colts fans, he was adequate at best

7/235 Rob Renes 0G/0GS A back injury derailed his career

1999

None

1998

None

1997

None

1996

3/88 JC Price 0G/0GS One of Polian’s worst picks ever

7/234 Kerry Hicks 2G/0GS Nothing special

1995

6/188 Steve Strahan 0G/0GS The wrong Strahan

1993

2/55 John Parrella 172G/111GS (10G/0GS with Bills) Polian’s Bills gave up on him right away, but he had a great career with the Chargers

1992

2/55 James Patton 13G/0GS An awful, awful pick; Joel Steed, one of the best nose tackles in NFL history, was taken just a few picks later

1991

None

1990

7/181 Fred DeRiggi 2G/0GS Nobody special

10/265 Mike Lodish 166G/31GS (74G/12GS with Bills) A decent player, certainly worth a tenth-round pick

1989

9/249 Pat Rabold 0G/0GS Didn’t make it out of training camp

1988

8/213 Jeff Wright 98G/67GS Good player, a bargain

11/289 Pete Curkendall 0G/0GS Just another guy

1987

8/209 Bruce Mesner 11G/0GS Just another guy

12/311 Joe McGrail 2G/0GS Just another guy

1986

10/251 Guy Teafatiller 3G/2GS Could have been something, but injuries ended his career

11/278 Tony Garbarczyk 2G/0GS@DE (0G/0GS with Bills) Just another guy

First rounders

None

Polian has gone on record as saying that stud defensive tackles are only ever available in the first few picks of the draft, but when he has had such picks, he has used them on other positions

Second rounders

2/42 Larry Tripplett 92G/62GS (60G/30GS with Colts)

2/55 John Parrella 172G/111GS (10G/0GS with Bills)

2/55 James Patton 13G/0GS

2/56 Fili Moala 26G/17GS*

None of these guys were stars, but he has uncovered some players – usually undersized

Third rounders

3/88 JC Price 0G/0GS

3/98 Quinn Pitcock 9G/1GS

Pitcock had a future, but blew it

Fourth rounders

4/122 Josh Williams 73G/48GS

4/136 Terrance Taylor 0G/0GS

Williams was not better than okay; Taylor – a rare, fat nose tackle type – was a bomb

Fifth rounders

None

I wonder why, guess it just never happened

Sixth rounders

6/182 David Pugh 4G/1GS

6/188 Steve Strahan 0G/0GS

Nothing special here

Seventh rounders

7/181 Fred DeRiggi 2G/0GS

7/234 Kerry Hicks 2G/0GS

7/235 Rob Renes 0G/0GS

7/238 Ricardo Mathews 8G/0GS*

Or here

Eighth to twelfth rounders

8/209 Bruce Mesner 11G/0GS

8/213 Jeff Wright 98G/67GS

9/249 Pat Rabold 0G/0GS

10/251 Guy Teafatiller 3G/2GS

10/265 Mike Lodish 166G/31GS (74G/12GS with Bills)

11/278 Tony Garbarczyk 2G/0GS@DE (0G/0GS with Bills)

11/289 Pete Curkendall 0G/0GS

12/311 Joe McGrail 2G/0GS

A few surprises; of course, these guys would all be undrafted free agents now

If his history is any indication, Polian may look for a defensive tackle in the second round, but will more likely hope to find a winning raffle ticket on the fourth day of the draft or in the undrafted free agent frenzy.

*still active

A look at the free agents

Late note: MrCrayz points out that the Colts did tender Charlie and Mookie. Changes have been made.

We all know that the tenders teams were giving out before the lockout were useless. No realistic CBA – or even post-union free-for-all – would allow them to stand up. Useless, yes; but meaningless, no. Below is a list of the players the Colts have offered tenders, applied a franchise tag or at least sat down and talked contract with.

29 Joseph Addai HB

Why?: He’s been the Colts’ starting halfback for a few seasons now, and would be a bargain if he could be re-signed at the rate he was tendered. Chance he’ll be back? Okay. They’d like him to come back, but if there’s a bidding war, consider the Colts out of it.

33 Melvin Bullitt S

Why?: He’s a decent safety who’s started 24 games for the Colts after the last three seasons and looked pretty good. Chance he’ll be back? Good, Bullitt’s a good but not great player who would be a good short-term starter or swing back up. Those guys are handy to have but rarely get offered big contracts, especially at his position.

68 Eric Foster DE

Why?: Out of necessity. Thrown into Raheem Brock’s old position Foster did not play well in 2010, but he has some potential and defensive ends with any talent are rare and expensive. Chance he’ll be back? Good, I can’t see any other team would make much of an effort to lure his from the Colts.

99 Antonio Johnson DT

Why?: Of all the Colts defensive tackles, he was the best one not named Fili Moala. I didn’t say he was good, just better than the others. Chance he’ll be back? Good. He’s not likely to be overrun by offers and the Colts know he can help out.

74 Charlie Johnson T

Why?: Okay, he’s not exactly Joe Thomas as a left tackle, but he’s much better than the alternative (and the best right tackle on the roster as well). Besides, the Colts owe him for forcing him to play out of position and for peanuts all these years. Chance he’ll be back? Good. even if they solve the left tackle problem, they need a right tackle, and if they solve both, they need a guard.

18 Peyton Manning QB

Why?: He’s still the best quarterback in the NFL. Chance he’ll be back? Excellent. It should have been a slam dunk, but unnecessary nastiness is emerging even though neither side can negotiate.

90 Daniel Muir DT

Why?: Defensive tackles are rare and Muir’s not as bad as his 2010 season would make it appear. Chance he’ll be back? Good. Muir might not make the opening day roster, but I’d bet that he’ll be invited to give it a try.

55 Clint Session LB

Why?: He’s a pretty good outside linebacker, capable of the occasional big play. Chance he’ll be back? Okay. The Colts tend to give up on linebackers who become free agents,a nd they have two youngsters – Kavell Connor and Pat Angerer – who could be just as productive outside, although Angerer’s future is inside.

4 Adam Vinatieri K

Why?: He might be almost 39, he’s still very accurate from within the 50. Chance he’ll be back? Good, I doubt anyone else would bid for him.

And below is a list of free agents the Colts have not made any offseason overtures to.

23 Al Afalava S

Why not?: One of the many safeties signed after a ridiculous number of injuries made the Colts desperate. He didn’t do much and could not beat out Aaron Frickin’ Francisco. Chance he’ll be back? Doubtful.

96 Keyunta Dawson DE

Why not?: Foster did poorly in 2010, but Dawson was much worse. Chance he’ll be back? Maybe.

66 Kyle DeVan G

Why not?: Although he had a surprisingly competent rookie season, he regressed in his second year. Chance he’ll be back? Good. It’s unlikely any other team would bid on him, and the Colts like him as a low-cost swing reserve.

43 Aaron Francisco S

Why not?: He’s awful. Chance he’ll be back? I desperately hope not.

56 Tyjuan Hagler LB

Why not?: He’s slow, he’s always hurt, but he’s a pretty good player when it counts. Chance he’ll be back? Kinda good, actually. He always seems to be.

35 Ken Hamlin S

Why not?: One of the many safeties signed after a ridiculous number of injuries made the Colts desperate. He didn’t do much and could not beat out Aaron Frickin’ Francisco. Chance he’ll be back? Not really.

30 Dominic Rhodes HB

Why not?: He’s a million years old in halfback years and was never any great shakes when he was young. Chance he’ll be back? Slim. I was shocked he came back last season.

32 Mike Hart HB

Why not?: I know he has tons of fans, but slow, fragile and unable to pick up the blitz is no way to go through life, son. Chance he’ll be back? Not good. I have a feeling the Colts would like to get younger and more talented at this spot, and Javarris James seems to have taken his place.

37 Mike Richardson CB

Why not?: I’m sorry, who’s he again? Chance he’ll be back? Slim.

47 Gijon Robinson TE

Why not?: He doesn’t do anything exceedingly well and his job has been taken by by Brody Eldridge. Chance he’ll be back?

40 Jamie Silva S

Why not?: I’m not sure. Silva’s a pretty good player despite having subpar speed. Chance he’ll be back? Pretty good.

75 Michael Toudouze T

Why not?: He’s not very good. Chance he’ll be back? Hard to say, really. They seem to cut and re-sign him with stunning regularity.

If you add the guys they have asked to stay to those already signed, the depth chart takes on a different look:

QB 18 Peyton Manning, 7 Curtis Painter

RB 29 Joseph Addai, 31 Donald Brown, 42 Javarris James, 45 Devin Moore

FL 85 Pierre Garcon, 17 Austin Collie, 15 Blair White, 12 Chris Brooks

SE 87 Reggie Wayne, 11 Anthony Gonzalez, 10 Taj Smith, 13 Kole Heckendorf

TE 44 Dallas Clark, 84 Jacob Tamme

H-B 81 Brody Eldridge, 86 Rob Myers

RT 71 Ryan Diem, 60 James Williams

RG 78 Mike Pollak, 73 Jaimie Thomas

C 63 Jeff Saturday, 65 Jacques McClendon

LG 61 Jamey Richard, 77 Casey Bender

LT 74 Charlie Johnson, 72 Jeff Linkenbach, 76 Joe Reitz

RDE 93 Dwight Freeney, 92 Jerry Hughes

RDT 99 Antonio Johnson, 90 Daniel Muir

LDT 95 Fili Moala, 91 Ricardo Mathews, 69 DeMario Pressley

LDE 98 Robert Mathis, 68 Eric Foster, 97 John Chick

RLB 53 Kavell Conner, 54 Nate Triplett

MLB 58 Gary Brackett, 51 Pat Angerer, 52 Cody Glenn

LLB 55 Clint Session, 50 Philip Wheeler

RCB 25 Jerraud Powers, 27 Jacob Lacey, 39 Cornelius Brown, 36 Jordan Hemby

LCB 26 Kelvin Hayden, 20 Justin Tryon, 22 Kevin Thomas, 43 Terrence Johnson

SS 33 Melvin Bullitt, 38 Mike Newton, 30 David Caldwell

FS 41 Antoine Bethea, 49 Chip Vaughn, 37 Brandon King

K 4 Adam Vinatieri, 2 Brett Swenson

P 1 Pat McAfee

LS 48 Justin Snow

Positional analysis: Tight ends

Keeping up with our pre-draft positional analysis, ColtPlay looks at the tight ends.

Dallas Clark

2010 stats: 6 games/6 starts, 37-347-3 receiving

Contract status: Signed through 2013

Analysis: Clark was on his way to another awesome season when a wrist injury ended his 2010 season. If you extrapolate his stats, he would have caught 99-925-8 if he had lasted a 16-game season. Clark established himself as one of the league’s top receiving tight ends years ago, and has played at a consistently high level for years. He’s been Manning’s safety net on third down and the two have developed an extraordinary rapport. Clark has never been much of a blocker, but really doesn’t have to be the way the Colts use him. He appears to be over his 2010 injury and is currently filming a segment for the popular TV show Criminal Minds. He should be ready to reassume his role by training camp.

Jacob Tamme

2010 stats: 16 games/8 starts, 67-631-4 receiving, 4 special-teams tackles, 1 special-teams assist

Contract status: Signed through 2011

Analysis: ColtPlay never hesitates to point out when other Colts fans and media are wrong, and I’m not above scrutiny myself. Like many Colts fans, I was delighted when the Colts drafted Tamme in 2008, but after just six catches in the first 38 games after he was drafted, I have to admit I was starting to think he was a wasted draft pick (or at least too high a pick to waste on a good special teamer who added little to the offense). I was wrong. After Clark went down, Tamme caught fire, catching at least four passes in every game after taking over. In fact, he was actually a bit better than Clark was in 2010, at least statistically. While he is even less of a blocker than Clark, Tamme is an excellent player on special teams.

Brody Eldridge

2010 stats: 14 games/8 starts, 5-39-0 receiving, 1 special-teams tackle

Contract status: Signed through 2013

Analysis: The Colts often play with two tight ends and since neither Clark nor Tamme block better than big wide receivers, the other tight end has to be a blocker. That’s why the Colts drafted Eldridge – who started some games on the offensive line in college – in 2010. Eldridge had an up-and-down season as a rookie, working hard to master the Colts’ complicated playbook and to cover for the frequent mistakes by the offensive line. He’s a better blocker at tight end than the Colts have seen since perhaps the Reese McCall days and should improve in that area, but has yet to show he is anything other than an emergency receiver.

Gijon Robinson

2010 stats: 11 games/2 starts, 3-12-1 receiving

Contract status: Unsigned

Analysis: A former small-college fullback, Robinson plays like one. He’s a good run-blocker, especially on the move, but is overmatched in most pass-blocking situations. Although he has decent hands, Robinson is dead slow and does little with the ball once he has it. Over the last three years, he has started a bunch of games for the Colts, but appears to have lost his job to Eldridge.

Rob Myers

2010 stats: 0 games/0 starts,

Contract status: Signed through 2011

Analysis: When many fans see a guy who’s moved around the league a lot right out of college, they dismiss him as a failed prospect. I’m not so sure. Since not being drafted in 2009, Myers has bounced around from the Jets to the Eagles to the Bills to the Colts. Teams sign guys like Myers because they see something in him, and they cut guys like him for various reasons – often, it’s just a numbers game. I think Myers is a quality prospect, but he comes with baggage. The main problem he’s had is that he could never stay healthy. A high school lacrosse player, he went to Utah State. He played on specials as a freshman and then moved to backup tight end as a soph. Battling a groin injury, he caught 10 passes for 125 yards. In his only healthy season, Myers caught 21-320-3, for an incredible 15.20 average. Looking for big things out of him, Utah State faithful were disappointed that he missed his entire senior season with toe surgery. Since then, he’s bounced around the league, not really sticking anywhere. In the 2009 preseason, he caught five of eight passes for 44 yards and a two-point conversion. Two of the incompletes were not his fault, as Michael Vick threw to him out of bounds and Adam DiMichele threw in his general direction while being brought down. In the 2010 preseason with the suddenly tight end-rich Patriots, Myers caught three of four passes thrown his way for 50 yards. Notably, all three of his catches resulted in first downs, including on desperate heave over the middle on 3rd-and-18. I’m not saying he’s the next Ozzie Newsome just that you shouldn’t write him off just yet.

Of note: While Eldridge was nursing a rib injury, 325-pound backup center Jacques McClendon played “tight end” in short-yardage and goal-line situations. They even changed his jersey from 65 to 80 for four games. Justin Snow is listed on the roster as a tight end, but only plays on special teams as the Colts’ long snapper. He was a defensive end in college.

What about 2011?: If you keep in mind that the Colts have two positions here, you’ll understand it better. The Colts play two tight ends – one a bulked-up receiver who is expected to catch at least 80 passes a season and the other a slimmed-down tackle who is expected to help the run game. For the first position, the Colts have two more-than-capable starters in Clark and Tamme and a reasonable prospect in Myers (PS: he can’t block either). One could assume that Tamme is one of those Polian-style starter-in-waiting types, but since Clark is signed for longer than him, it doesn’t make sense. Instead, with Clark back, Tamme will have to make the best of it, catching passes when he can, shining on special teams and hoping general managers around the league remember how good he was in 2010 when he becomes a free agent after the 2011 season. At the other position, the Colts have Eldridge, who is solid and likely to improve. He could use a backup, but the Colts could opt to replace him with an offensive lineman again, should things go wrong.

Free agency: It’s unlikely the Colts will do anything here, but could bring back Robinson or Tom Santi, a product of the same draft class as Tamme who caught 18-171-1 and was hot-and-cold as a blocker in his career with the Colts.

Draft: Given the relative embarrassment of wealth at the position and the plethora of needs elsewhere, I would be shocked if Polian drafted a tight end. But we all know he has done crazier things.

Some stats:

Catch percentage

Tamme 72.04

Clark 69.81

Eldridge 55.56

Robinson 42.86

Yards per reception

Tamme 9.42

Clark 9.39

Eldridge 7.80

Robinson 4.00

Yards per target

Tamme 6.78

Clark 6.55

Eldridge 4.33

Robinson 1.71

First down percentage

Robinson 66.67

Clark 56.76

Tamme 52.24

Eldridge 20.00

YAC average

Tamme 4.76

Clark 3.68

Eldridge 3.60

Robinson 2.33

Average depth

Clark 5.71

Tamme 4.66

Eldridge 4.20

Robinson 1.67

Catches over the middle

Tamme 16-161-0

Clark 9-103-0

Eldridge 0-0-0

Robinson 0-0-0

OT workout numbers

As a service to its readers, ColtPlay is providing the workout numbers for the top offensive tackles in the draft. Key: c=combine, pd=pro day, pdp=pro day numbers pending, DNP=did not participate.

Height

Solder 6082c/pdp

Carimi 6070c/pdp

Castanzo 6070c/6070pd

Brewer 6062c/pdp

Ziemba 6055c/6055pd

Sherrod 6053c/6053pd

Carpenter 6043c/6043pd

Love 6043c/6043pd

Pinkston 6033c/pdp

Weight

Brewer 323c/pdp

Carpenter 321c/321pd

Sherrod 321c/321pd

Solder 319c/pdp

Pinkston 317c/pdp

Ziemba 317c/317pd

Love 315c/315pd

Carimi 314c/pdp

Castanzo 311c/311pd

Smith 307c/pdp

Arm length

Smith 3603c

Brewer 3504c

Solder 3504c

Sherrod 3503c

Love 3502c

Carimi 3500c

Castonzo 3404c

Carpenter 3400c

Pinkston 3400c

Ziemba 3400c

10-yards

Solder 1.72c/pdp

Brewer 1.76c/pdp

Carimi 1.78c/pdp

Castanzo 1.80c/DNPpd

Carpenter 1.81c/DNPpd

Sherrod 1.81c/1.84pd

Love 1.85c/1.70pd

Pinkston 1.86/pdp

Ziemba 1.87c/1.87pd

Smith DNPc/pdp

20-yards

Carimi 2.80c/pdp

Solder 2.87c/pdp

Castanzo 2.92c/DNPpd

Brewer 2.95c/pdp

Love 2.97c/2.95pd

Sherrod 3.01c/3.06pd

Carpenter 3.03c/DNPpd

Pinkston 3.06/pdp

Ziemba 3.10c/3.06pd

Smith DNPc/pdp

40-yards

Solder 4.96c/pdp

Carimi 5.18c/pdp

Love 5.18c/5.07pd

Sherrod 5.18c/5.27pd

Brewer 5.21c/pdp

Castanzo 5.21c/DNPpd

Carpenter 5.22c/DNPpd

Pinkston 5.39c/pdp

Ziemba 5.50c/5.46pd

Smith DNPc/pdp

Bench press

Carimi 29c/pdp

Smith 29c/pdp

Castanzo 28c/DNPpd

Love 27c/DNPpd

Brewer 25c/pdp

Carpenter 23c/DNPpd

Sherrod 23c/DNPpd

Solder 21c/pdp

Ziemba 20c/DNPpd

Pinkston DNPc/pdp

Vertical

Solder 32c/pdp

Carimi 31.5c/pdp

Castanzo 29.5/DNPpd

Ziemba 29c/28pd

Carpenter DNPc/28.5pd

Sherrod 28c/DNPpd

Pinkston 26.5c/pdp

Love 26.5c/DNPpd

Brewer 26c/pdp

Smith DNPc/pdp

Long jump

Solder 9’2c/pdp

Carimi 9’1c/pdp

Castanzo 8’9c/DNPpd

Brewer 8’4c/pdp

Pinkston 8’2c/pdp

Love 8’1c/DNPpd

Sherrod 8’1c/DNPpd

Ziemba 7’11c/8’4pd

Carpenter DNPc/8’10pd

Smith DNPc/pdp

20-yard shuttle

Solder 4.34c/pdp

Castanzo 4.40c/DNPpd

Sherrod 4.63c/DNPpd

Ziemba 4.65c/DNPpd

Brewer 4.81c/pdp

Love 4.84c/DNPpd

Pinkston 4.91c/pdp

Carimi DNPc/pdp

Carpenter DNPc/4.75pd

Smith DNPc/pdp

3-cone

Castanzo 7.25c/DNPpd

Sherrod 7.43c/DNPpd

Solder 7.44c/pdp

Ziemba 7.74c/DNPpd

Brewer 7.84c/pdp

Love 7.84c/DNPpd

Pinkston 7.88c/pdp

Carpenter DNPc/7.65pd

Smith DNPc/pdp

Carimi DNPc/pdp

I'll update it as pro day numbers come in.

Will he or won't he: Polian and first-round offensive tackles

Conventional wisdom among Colts fans is that Bill Polian will not select either a defensive tackle or offensive tackle in the first round because he never does. As usual, conventional wisdom is only half right.

It’s true that Polian has never drafted a defensive tackle in the first round. Not ever. Not with Buffalo, Carolina or Indianapolis. Of his 24 first-round picks, none have been defensive tackles.

But the same is not true of offensive tackles. While it is true the last Polian’s grabbed one in the first round was in 1995, he has made efforts to get offensive tackles throughout his career whenever the need has arisen.

Recent events may have led you to doubt that, but let’s look at history.

When Polian took charge of the Bills, his incumbent left tackle was 34-year-old Ken Jones, a good player, but nearing the end of the line. So with the second pick of the first round of his first draft, Polian selected Will Wolford, an excellent prospect who started 16 games at right guard as a rookie before moving to left tackle in 1987.

Wolford continued to play at a very high level, but with impending free agency looming, Polian drafted his replacement in 1992. John Fina played in all 16 games as a rookie at four different o-line positions. Wolford did indeed move on in 1993, signing an unprecedented, barely legal contact with the Colts (of all teams.) Fina took over as Buffalo’s left tackle and, although he was no Wolford, played well enough during the remainder of Polian’s career in the Queen City.

Polian then took his show to Carolina, which was fielding an expansion team. With his third pick in the first round, Polian selected Blake Brockenmeyer, who started 16 games at left tackle as a rookie. He continued to be the starter at the position as long as Polian was with the team.

When Polian took over the Colts in 1998, he already had a premium left tackle in place – 1997 first-rounder Tarik Glenn, who had started 16 games at right guard as a rook. Glenn played outstanding football for the Colts before suddenly retiring after the 2006 season. Polian thought he had his successor in the 2007 draft when he traded a first-round pick to San Francisco for the right to select Tony Ugoh.

Because of Glenn’s premature departure, Ugoh was thrown into the breach as a rookie and looked awful. He was replaced by second-year guard Charlie Johnson. Ugoh’s rookie season was seen as something as a learning experience, so he was given a shot again in 2008 (in a large part because they had spent their 2008 first-round pick on him). He didn’t look great and was replaced by Johnson again, but the Colts went 12-4 and thought he would develop into a passable starter. In 2009, Colt fans were beginning to make louder calls for a more legitimate replacement for the Ugoh-Johnson tag team, but the Colts drafted halfback Donald Brown instead as insurance for Joseph Addai’s upcoming free agency. Of the tackles selected after Brown that year, only the Patriot’s surprise choice, Sebastian Vollmer, has distinguished himself as a left tackle prospect in the NFL.

The calls became much, much louder in 2010. Ugoh was officially shifted to guard and then cut, while Johnson was named the starting left tackle. Polian, again fearing free agency would rob him of star pass-rushers Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, selected defensive end Jerry Hughes. That day, a poll of Colts fans indicated that 79 percent of fans “loved” the pick.

In hindsight a year later, many Colts fans pointed out that the Colts could have drafted either Roger Saffold or Jared Velderheer, both of whom started at left tackle as rookies. But the truth be told, neither played that much better than Johnson in 2010 (Saffold allowed 3.5 sacks, had 8 penalties and was no asset in the run game, while Veldheer allowed 7.5 sacks and had 15 penalties at a variety of positions) – although both possess much higher upsides.

And, if we actually have to bring this up, I looked at the Colts fan sites from last year and most of them preferred Charles Brown and Bruce Campbell to Saffold and Veldheer, and they both had tragic first seasons, Campbell, in fact, was beaten out by Veldheer, but he appears to still be in the Raiders’ plans.

For full disclosure, here’s what ColtPlay had to say on them:

Saffold: “Looked great in the Senior Bowl, but was inconsistent before that. Will develop, but lacks killer instinct as run blocker. If they drafted him first, I’d be: Okay with it.”

Veldheer: “Who did I have for tonight? Oh yeah, Veldheer and Verner. That would be nice.” (PS: Verner had an awesome rookie season at corner for the Flaming Thumbtacks)

Brown: “Ugh. I hate to say it, but he looks like a potential bust to me. If they drafted him first, I’d be: Wondering if Polian’s lost it.”

Campbell: “Great pass blocker who lacks bite in the run game, is that really what the Colts want? If they drafted him first, I’d be: Okay with it.”

So, while many Colts observers might think that Polian is loathe to draft a tackle, I disagree. In fact, since 1986, he has selected Wil Wolford, John Fina and Blake Brockemeyer. And, he’s traded a first-rounder in 2008 for Tony Ugoh. What’s interesting to note, is that in 2008, the only tackles available when the Colts would have drafted were Jon Greco, Anthony Collins, David Hale, Josh Sitton, Breno Giacomini, Barry Richardson, Nate Garner, Demetrious Bell, Brandon Keith, King Dunlap, Geoff Schwartz and Kirk Barton – none of whom is significantly better than Ugoh.

So, since this is a year with a number of good offensive tackle prospects and the Colts can no longer say they hope Ugoh develops, it looks very much like they will finally draft that offensive tackle in the first round this year.

Below is a list of first-round picks by Polian.

1986 HB Harmon, T Wolford
1987 ILB Conlan
1988 HB Thomas
1989 None
1990 CB Williams
1991 S Jones
1992 T Fina
1993 CB Smith
1995 QB Collins, CB Poole, T Brockenmeyer
1996 HB Biakabutuka
1997 WR Carruth
1998 QB Manning
1999 HB James
2000 ILB Morris
2001 WR Wayne
2002 DE Freeney
2003 TE Clark
2004 None
2005 CB Jackson
2006 HB Addai
2007 WR Gonzalez
2008 None
2009 HB Brown
2010 DE Hughes

2011 draft: First look

I haven’t always been great about predicting who the Colts will draft. I got four of seven in 1999 (and if you say you did better than me, I will call you a liar – nobody, but nobody saw Edgerrin James over Ricky Williams), but since then have been pretty hit and miss. I got Rob Morris and Jerry Hughes – but so did everybody else.

But the thing is that every player that I have predicted that the Colts would draft in the first round who they did not select – from Hakeem Nicks to Maurice Jones-Drew – has been a very good player. So I guess that’s good news for the guy I’m projecting the Colts grab in 2011.

Here’s why the Colts will select Derek Sherrod, offensive tackle, Mississippi State:

1. There’s a crying need at the position. At present, the best left tackle on the Colts’ roster is Jeff Linkenbach, who is not very good. Even if they sign all their free agents, the best left tackle they would have would be incumbent Charlie Johnson, who is also not very good (although certainly a starting quality guard).

2. Sherrod is the best pure pass blocker in the draft. He’s built for the job with long arms and big hands, and knows what he’s doing. He has great initial pop, sorts out assignments quickly and understands blitzes.

3. He has outstanding athleticism, running the three-cone in 7.43 seconds,

4. Sherrod is an upstanding young man who has earned a business degree with a 3.54 GPA, was voted captain of his team and is very active in his community.

5. He has the frame to get stronger.

Although if I was in Polian’s position (and that’s was this blog is basically about), I would draft nothing but linemen, it won’t go that way.

Instead, let’s take a look at how it might go down. Keep in mind that the Colts are likely to receive no compensatory picks and that they traded their seventh-rounder to Washington for CB Justin Tryon.

1/22 Derek Sherrod T Mississippi State

For reasons listed above

2/21 Kendall Hunter HB Oklahoma State

Even if Addai returns, the Colts look to go halfback-by-committee; Hunter adds the magic and wow factor none of the guys current on the roster supplies (and he can actually pass block)

3/23 Tyler Sash SS Iowa

This seems like a fait accompli (and could even happen a round earlier): 1. The Colts love Hawkeyes, 2. The Colts need a strong safety, 3. Sash is a very good strong safety who’s also a Hawkeye, 4. Sash excels at exactly what the Colts demand a strong safety do.

4/22 Kyle Hix T Texas

Very similar player and person to Sherrod, but replace “left tackle” with “right tackle” and “great initial pop” with “incredible leg drive”

5/21 Ibrahim Abdulai DT Arkansas-Pine Bluff

A Polian pick – Abdulai is a super-productive (18 TFL, 7.5 sacks, 4 forced fumbles as a senior), small-college penetrator who’s a very powerful 305-pounder and another solid citizen-type

6/23 Jason Kelce C/G Cincinnati

More help for the line comes from this dramatically undersized but very athletic former linebacker.

Positional analysis: Wide receivers

On paper, the Colts have an unbelievably enviable receiving corps. Their fifth guy could start for the Browns. Reggie Wayne is about 50-50 to go to the Hall of Fame, Pierre Garçon is a big-play machine, Austin Collie is among the league’s most talented and effective slot receivers, Anthony Gonzalez is a former first-rounder with solid ability, undrafted rookie Blair White was a revelation in the slot, almost as good as Collie was in his first year, and Taj Smith is a special-teams demon who could well develop into an NFL-quality receiver. And they are all signed, at least for 2011.

But, of course, nobody plays on paper. In reality, Wayne will be 33 this season, is beyond his peak and his contract ends after this season. Garçon is streaky, and goes through long funks in which he can’t catch anything. Collie has concussion problems that could end his career, Gonzalez is more injury-prone than Bob Sanders, White is still unproven and Smith hasn’t shown anything on offense yet.

Reggie Wayne

2010 stats: 16 games/16 starts, 111-1,355-6 receiving, 1/1 fumbles

Contract status: Signed through 2011

Analysis: You might not remember it, but when the Colts drafted Wayne in the first round of the 2001 draft, it was not a popular pick. He was neither fast nor strong, his critics said. The Colts needed defense more than another receiver. Heck, they pointed out, they already had Marvin Harrison. Well, it’s ten years later, and Wayne has caught 787 passes for 10,748 yards and 69 touchdowns, appeared in two Super Bowls and five Pro Bowls. He’s lost a step or so, but his experience, concentration, work ethic and rapport with quarterback Peyton Manning keep him one of the league’s best. I think it’s safe to write down another 100-catch, 1,200-yard season from Wayne, but his replacement will have to arrive soon.

Pierre Garçon

2010 stats: 14 games/14 starts, 67-784-6 receiving

Contract status: Signed through 2011, due for a raise

Analysis: Although Garçon is a great story and an even better guy, I’m not sure he’ll ever be a No. 1 receiver. Drafted in the sixth round of the 2008 draft, he spent his rookie year as a backup and special teamer. In 2009, he lost the No. 2 receiver job to Gonzalez and the slot position to Collie, but after Gonzalez was hurt, Garçon stepped in and was a revelation, catching 47-765-4 and establishing himself as the team’s deep threat. But he regressed in 2010 – even more than the other offensive skill players – and lost a great deal of Manning’s trust. It’s likely that Garçon could re-establish himself as a deep threat, but his average hands and reluctance to go over the middle mean that he’ll never be better than No. 2.

Austin Collie

2010 stats: 9 games/6 starts, 58-649-8 receiving, 1/1 fumbles

Contract status: Signed through 2012

Analysis: Until he was hurt, Collie was actually the Colts’ most effective receiver, better even than Wayne and all-everything tight end Dallas Clark. In fact, he may have been the best short-range receiver in the league this side of Wes Welker. But two terrifying concussions in one season landed him on injured reserve. It’s hard to predict how a player will return from concussions, but if Collie is anywhere near what he was before the hits, the Colts are set in the slot. So far, the prognosis is good. "I don't know if you can say that until he gets on the field and actually plays," team president Bill Polian said. 'Thus far, all the signs are positive."

Blair White

2010 stats: 13 games/4 starts, 36-355-5 receiving, 10-80-0 punt returns, 2 special-teams tackles, 1/0 fumbles

Contract status: Signed through 2012

Analysis: An undrafted free agent the Colts promoted from their practice squad, White proved he belongs in the NFL. Despite being a tall long strider, White played better in the slot. He’s fearless and nifty and has excellent hands. He hasn’t shown that he can do much after the catch, but his sure-handedness allowed him to assume the primary punt return job.

Anthony Gonzalez

2010 stats: 2 games/0 starts, 5-67-0 receiving

Contract status: Signed through 2011

Analysis: A first-round pick in 2007, Gonzalez was seen more as a complement to Wayne rather than his ultimate replacement. Gonzo put together two solid but unspectacular seasons in that role, but his 2009 and 2010 seasons were wiped out by major knee injuries. If he comes back full-strength, Gonzo would compete with Garçon for a starting spot outside. If he loses, Gonzalez could have a hard time sticking to the roster as Collie and White have established themselves inside and unlike Garçon, Gonzalez offers little on special teams.

Taj Smith

2010 stats: 5 games/0 starts, 3 special-teams tackles, 1 special teams assist, 1 forced fumble, 1-0-0 fumble recovery (1 blocked punt recovered for a touchdown)

Contract status: Signed through 2012

Analysis: Smith didn’t get drafted after a broken collarbone as a senior at Syracuse and a terrible showing at the combine. Despite his official 4.59 forty, Smith is actually one of the fastest football players I have ever seen, and a powerful athlete. He put those skills together in kick coverage for the Colts last year, and played like a demon. He didn’t play much on offense in the regular season, but made some terrific catches and runs in the preseason (and some lamentable drops). An DUI arrest in January 2010 tarnished Smith’s character with some fans, but I’ve spoken with him a number of times and he seems like an outstanding young man who made a mistake.

Chris Brooks

2010 stats: 1 game/0 starts

Contract status: Signed through 2011

Analysis: Brooks is a project. He’s a big (6016/215), fast (4.42) receiver who didn’t start a single game at Nebraska. An undrafted rookie, he signed with Tampa Bay and caught three of four passes for 50 yards, but also fumbled. He spent most of the year on the Colts’ practice squad, appearing in one game on kick coverage and recording no stats. To make it in the NFL, he’ll have to show consistent hands and the ability to burn DBs deep.

Kole Heckendorf

2010 stats: None

Contract status: Signed through 2011

Analysis: After a ridiculously productive career at North Dakota State, Heckendorf went undrafted in 2009. Since then, he’s been on five NFL teams but has yet to see game action. He’s tall but thin, with decent but not great speed. A tough, smart kid who works hard to help his quarterback, his best shot in the NFL would be as a slot guy, catching short passes and making yards after the catch.

Also played with the Colts in 2010:

Brandon James

2010 stats: 3 games/0 starts, 6-40-0 receiving, 14-229-0 kick returns, 7-35-0 punt returns

Contract status: Unsigned

Analysis: After a very productive career as a combination halfback/receiver/returner at Florida, the 5’6, 176-pound James did not show enough on offense or special teams to prevent the Colts from cutting ties with him.

Kenneth Moore

2010 stats: 2 games/0 starts, 6-36-0 punt returns, 2/1 fumbles

Contract status: Unsigned

Analysis: Moore had been hanging around the NFL since 2006 as a return man. When injuries struck the Colts, they gave him a shot, but cut him after he fumbled twice against Washington.

What about 2011?: Like I said, if they are healthy, the Colts don’t need anything – except an eventual replacement for Wayne. Wayne, Garçon and Gonzo have all proven they can play outside, Collie is an excellent slot man, White can play inside or out, while Smith has definite potential (and a job on specials), while stranger things have happened than Brooks and Heckendorf developing into players.

Free agency: Nope.

Draft: In other years, I would say the Colts might draft a receiver high given their situation, nurture him and hope he replaces Wayne. But severe needs all over the offensive line, at defensive tackle and perhaps strong safety, I just can’t see it happening. Instead, I think the Colts will select a talented small-schooler to develop – I think too many teams are high on Mount Union’s Cecil Shorts, but UTEP’s Kris Adams has the stuff if he gains muscle without sacrificing athleticism. They could also select a return specialist like Mississippi State’s Leon Berry or Utah’s Antoine “Shaky” Smithson.

Some stats:

Catch percentage

Collie 81.69

White 63.16

Wayne 63.07

Garçon 56.78

Gonzalez 55.56

James 54.55

Yards per reception

Gonzalez 13.40

Wayne 12.21

Garçon 11.70

Collie 11.19

White 9.86

James 6.67

Yards per target

Collie 9.14

Wayne 7.70

Gonzalez 7.44

Garçon 6.64

White 6.23

James 3.64

First down percentage

White 66.67

Wayne 64.86

Garçon 61.19

Gonzalez 60.00

Collie 55.17

James 50.00

YAC average

Collie 5.41

Garçon 4.03

Wayne 3.95

Gonzalez 3.60

James 2.33

White 2.19

Average depth

Gonzalez 9.80

Wayne 8.26

Garçon 7.67

White 7.67

Collie 5.78

James 4.34

Catches over the middle

White 7-71-2

Collie 7-46-1

Wayne 6-65-0

Gonzalez 2-40-0

Garçon 2-15-0

James 0-0-0

Bizarro QB

We all know Peyton Manning is incredibly loyal and all that, but let's just go nuts for a second and think about the worst-case scenario for the Colts. What if the new CBA forbids the franchise tag and Manning wakes up and looks around and thinks my backs are Joe Addai and Donnie Brown, my tackles are basically turnstiles and my defense will never be anything more than a speed bump? Why don't I just sign for more money and get a few more Super Bowls?

Let's say he signs elsewhere. What would the Colts do? My guess would be drafting Christian Ponder, re-designing the offense into the old West Coast, crossing our fingers and hoping for the best.

The Real Depth Chart

With the CBA in doubt, the concepts of ERFA, RFA, UFA and Franchise are no longer valid. So here's a depth chart based on who the Colts actually have under contract.


QB 7 Curtis Painter
RB 31 Donald Brown, 42 Javarris James, 45 Devin Moore

FL 85 Pierre Garcon, 17 Austin Collie, 15 Blair White, 12 Chris Brooks
SE 87 Reggie Wayne, 11 Anthony Gonzalez, 10 Taj Smith, 13 Kole Heckendorf

TE 44 Dallas Clark, 84 Jacob Tamme
H-B 81 Brody Eldridge, 86 Rob Myers

RT 71 Ryan Diem, 60 James Williams
RG 78 Mike Pollak, 73 Jaimie Thomas
C 63 Jeff Saturday, 65 Jacques McClendon
LG 61 Jamey Richard, 77 Casey Bender
LT 72 Jeff Linkenbach, 76 Joe Reitz, 79 Mike Tepper

RDE 93 Dwight Freeney, 92 Jerry Hughes
RDT 91 Ricardo Mathews, 69 DeMario Pressley
LDT 95 Fili Moala, 69 John Gill
LDE 98 Robert Mathis, 97 John Chick

RLB 53 Kavell Conner, 54 Nate Triplett
MLB 58 Gary Brackett, 52 Cody Glenn
LLB 51 Pat Angerer, 50 Philip Wheeler

RCB 25 Jerraud Powers, 27 Jacob Lacey, 39 Cornelius Brown, 36 Jordan Hemby
LCB 26 Kelvin Hayden, 20 Justin Tryon, 22 Kevin Thomas, 43 Terrence Johnson
SS 38 Mike Newton, 30 David Caldwell
FS 41 Antoine Bethea, 49 Chip Vaughn, 37 Brandon King

K 2 Brett Swenson
P 1 Pat McAfee
LS 48 Justin Snow

Late Note: Sharp-eyed reader Mrcrayz888 points out that I missed out on John Gill and Mike Tepper. They have been added. Thanks, pal!

Positional analysis: Running backs

You can blame poor blocking and injuries all you want, but the Colts running backs just were not very good in 2010. Here's a look:

Joseph Addai
2010 stats: 8 games/7 starts, 116-495-4 rushing, 19-124-0, 2/1 fumbles
Contract status: Unsigned
Analysis: I’ve never been an Addai backer. I mean, he’s an okay back, but he lacks a breakway threat (despite a fast combine 40) and he’s not a reliable grinder either. Even when things were at their best in his first two pro seasons, I was never that impressed, regarding him as a decent back, but nothing better. Last season, he missed a great deal of time due to a nasty neck injury and hardly wowed when he was healthy. As a receiver, he offers decent hands but does little with the ball after the catch. Addai’s saving grace is that he’s a very adept pass-blocker, which is very important when you share a backfield with Peyton Manning. Interestingly, he has historically run much better on grass than turf.

Donald Brown
2010 stats:13 games/8 starts, 129-497-2 rushing, 20-205-0 receiving, 0/0 fumbles
Contract status: signed through 2013
Analysis: The plan when Brown was drafted in the first round in 2009 appeared to be that he would apprentice under Addai and then replace him when Addai’s veteran status and free agency meant he would command a long-term, high-buck deal. But there was a problem – Brown’s not very good. Or at least he hasn’t been in a Colts’ uniform and it’s rare a back gets much better after his first two years. Brown has made a few good plays, but generally looks tentative and cautious in his decision-making as a runner. One good sign, though, is that Browns runs much better after he’s had a dozen or so carries and can get into some form of rhythm. He’s not a bad receiver at all, but his terrible pass-blocking make it unlikely he will ever carve a niche out as a third-down specialist. Ièd suggest moving him to slot receiver, but if it didn't happen it 2010, when the Colts were desperate for healthy receivers, it will never happen.

Mike Hart
2010 stats: 7 games/1 start, 43-185-1 rushing, 6-25-0, 0/0 fumbles
Contract status: Unsigned
Analysis: Colt fans have always rallied around Hart, but the fact is that he’s got pulling guard speed, average functional strength and a long, long history of injuries. Not qualified to be a starter, a third-down back or a short-yardage specialist (and not really a contributor on special teams), it’s hard to see where he would fit other than a jack-of-all-trades-master-of-none spare body. He is a superior block, though, and has

Dominic Rhodes
2010 stats: 3 games/0 starts, 37-172-0 rushing, 1-4-0 receiving, 12-252-0 kick returns, 1/1 fumbles
Contract status: Unsigned
Analysis: At the end of the season, when injuries were all over the offense, the Colts signed their old friend Rhodes off the street (he’d been cut by Buffalo earlier). Sadly, he looked like the team’s best runner until a hip injury brought him down to Earth in the season-ending loss to the Jets. Even at his best – and that was many years and injuries ago – Rhodes was never an elite back, and at 33 is unlikely to get any better.

Javarris James
2010 stats: 10 games/0 starts, 46-112-6 rushing, 9-63-0 receiving, 3-16-0 kick returns, 1 special-teams tackle, 0/0 fumbles
Contract status: Signed through 2012
Analysis: Although his stats look mediocre at first, James’ six scores in 46 carries is a shocking number when you look at the other backs’ scoring or lack thereof (seven in 327 carries). Unlike his cousin, Edgerrin James, who was a speed back surprisingly easy to take down for his size, “Baby J” is slow and a load to bring down. That has made him very suitable to short-yardage work – all but one of his rushing touchdowns came from three yards or closer. He’s also a very good blocker (as Edgerrin was), especially as an up back on return teams. But don’t expect James ever to develop into a major producer on offense. He’s just too slow and lacks moves.

Devin Moore
2010 stats: 4 games/0 starts, 2-(-2)-0 rushing, 12-257-0 kick returns, 1/1 fumbles
Contract status: Signed through 2011
Analysis: Last year, Moore played only a few snaps on offense, and the results were not pretty. Unless the Colts design specific plays to get him into space quickly, it’s unlikely he’ll ever see much time on offense. He was, however, the Colts primary return man before he was felled by injury in 2010. He offers little as a pass-catcher, blocker or on special teams aside from returns.

What about 2011?: It all depends on what happens with Addai. He’s a free agent and the Colts have offered him a tender. Of course, we all know that those tenders will be meaningless under virtually any sort of reasonable CBA, but at least it shows him that the team wants him back. Addai is a gentlemanly, loyal sort, so it’s very likely he would re-sign. But if he doesn’t, the Colts could be sent into disarray at the position.

Plan Brown did not work out, but he is under contract, so he’ll be invited back to show us we’re all wrong. But the fact that he received no carries – actually no offensive snaps at all – against the Jets in the playoffs despite being healthy indicates he’s not a big part of the team’s future.

I think Rhodes has had the biscuit, but Polian love his old favorites, and it wouldn’t be out of the question for him to get an invitation to training camp. Hart’s also a free agent, and his lack of production and potential could prevent the Colts from re-signing him. More likely, is that they will give his spot to James, who does most of the same things only better and has a well-defined role as a short-yardage guy. Moore will be invited back, but just to defend his kick return job. Don’t expect to see him line up on offense.

Free agency: Forget it, the Colts rarely sign veteran free agents of any merit, and Polian has a belief that veteran backs are worthless backs.

Draft: If the Colts re-sign Addai, he’ll be the team’s featured back, for better or worse. If they don’t re-sign him, they would be scrambling for a feature back. Considering the needs on the offensive and defensive lines as well as safety, spending a top draft pick on a running back would be difficult (especially considering the fact that the Colts used two first-round picks on the position in the past five years). But if you look at the top twenty rushing leaders from 2010, you’ll notice that only seven of them were first-round picks. Great backs can be had later in the draft. This year, I really like Cal’s Shane Vereen, UConn’s Jordan Todman and Maryland’s Da’Rel Scott.

A few stats:

Rushing average
Rhodes 4.65
Hart 4.30
Addai 4.27
Brown 3.85
James 2.43
Moore -1.00

First-down percentage
Addai 26.72
Hart 23.26
Rhodes 21.62
Brown 20.16
James 19.57
Moore 0.00

Stuff percentage
Addai 8.62
James 8.70
Hart 9.30
Rhodes 10.81
Brown 12.40
Moore 50.00

Catch percentage
Hart 100.00
James 81.82
Addai 73.08
Brown 71.43
Rhodes 25.00

Average yards per reception
Brown 10.25
James 7.00
Addai 6.53
Hart 4.17
Rhodes 4.00

Average yards per target
Brown 7.32
James 5.73
Addai 4.80
Hart 4.17
Rhodes 1.00

YAC average
Brown 9.35
James 9.11
Addai 4.84
Hart 4.50
Rhodes 2.00

A note on fullbacks: Ain’t gonna happen.