Tuesday, February 19, 2013

The dangers of signing veteran free agents

There seems to be a feeling among Colts fans that because they have a huge amount of money under the cap, they should sign everyone they can as though the NFL was a giant game of Madden. But there are dangers associated with signing free agents, especially older ones, that can manifest themselves down the line. Many a team has been crippled by throwing a huge contract at a guy, and having it not work out. Besides, bringing in an outside player for huge money can not only affect the teams' salary structure, but it can breed resentment.

I'm not against signing free agents, I just think wisdom, even frugality should be applied.

Since the Patriots say they are unwilling to put a franchise tag on Wes Welker, their super slot man of so many years, some Colts fans will be clamoring for their team to sign him. But there are two big red flags and one smaller, sort of yellow-ish one.

The first and most important of the mitigating factors is that Welker has a ton of wear and tear on him. In 140 NFL regular-season games, he has caught 768 passes, ran the ball 19 times and returned 241 punts and 183 kicks. Factor in that the Patriots usually go quite deep into the playoffs and you're looking at a guy who has run a lot of routes and taken a lot of hits. While Welker is certainly tough and has a Franco Harris-like ability to avoid big hits, he's not a big man and hardly a young one.

The other major stumbling block is that, although I would not say that he's the product of the Patriots' system, I would say that he's been very comfortable in it. As a Charger and Dolphin, he was "that Welker kid," not the undisputed king of the slot. Maybe it was just maturity or being given a chance, but it seems to me that Welker would have a hard time recreating that comfort level in another uniform.

And the third, perhaps minor factor is that I think he might not want to come to Indy. He has a bikini model for a wife, he hangs out with 50 Cent, he vacations in Aspen. I'm not sure he'd be excited about relocating to the Midwest (although he is originally from OKC).

Although I'm sure there is some GM willing to open up the vaults for Welker, I don't think it'll be Ryan Grigson. Even so, I think Welker would take a plus-sized pay cut to stay in Foxboro.

The franchise number on Welker is about $11.4M. He won't make that, but is almost certain to eclipse Reggie Wayne's $5.8M annual salary by a wide margin. How do you explain that to a young team whose primary strength is unity?

It's a similar scenario with Ed Reed. The guy's had a stellar, maybe Hall of Fame, career. He's a leader, an athlete and a good guy. So why not?

Well, he's old. Very old by football standards. He'll be 35 in the second week of the 2013 regular season. He's played in 160 games (starting 159) at one of the most grueling and body-destroying positions in football. Although he played well in 2012, Reed began to show his age. Still a whiz in coverage because of his placement, anticipation and encyclopedic knowledge, Reed was flagged more often than usual and made a  habit of missing tackles, particularly in the run game. I would not be surprised if it represented the beginning of a very rapid end to Reed's playing days.

And he's a free safety. The Colts actually have a younger, more effective free safety on their roster in Antoine Bethea. He's set to become an unrestricted free agent after the 2013 season. Obviously, Colts fans don't see Reed as a long-term replacement for Bethea (at least I hope not), so I guess they think he'll play strong safety. It can be argued that the difference is not great, but it still would require a transition on Reed's part. And you have to wonder, would signing Reed push Bethea's price up?

Reed reminds me of Jeff Saturday. After a long and distinguished career as a Colt, he spent one decent but realistically superfluous season with the Packers and has come back to retire with the Colts. Besides the risks of breakdown, erosion of talent and profound salary-structure ramifications, there's one other huge reason not to sign veteran star free agents -- there heart will always belong to another team.

***

Some late-round prospects to discuss:

David Bass OLB Missouri Western D2 sackmaster
Micah Hyde CB Iowa Tough guy who knows zones
David Bakhtiari G Colorado Short, scrappy tackle
Cobi Hamilton WR Arkansas Strong deep threat
Shamarko Thomas SS Syracuse Depth at position pushes him down
Travis Johnson OLB San Jose State Quick sack guy, may be overvalued at this point
Aaron Mellette WR Elon Big kid makes his own yards
Jordan Mills G Louisiana Tech May be drafted higher
JC Tretter G Cornell Small-school standout
Quanterus Smith OLB Western Kentucky Sun Belt sack machine recovering from ACL tear







1 comment:

Roy said...

There is a certain "Kid in the candy store" mentality of children that never quite leaves us. My parents would say I had money burning a hole in my pocket.

Spend wisely because as you say it could have serious consequences if you do not.