Monday, February 18, 2013

Freeney, Collie and the Colts

It's all over the internet that the Colts "cut" Dwight Freeney and Austin Collie. The truth is only slightly different: The team has decided not to offer either unrestricted free agent a contract, even though both have publicly stated that they would have preferred to return to the team.

Freeney's exit will create a huge hole for the team. Athough much was made of his measly five sacks in 2012 (Colts fans usually expect 12-16 from him), I would argue that he was the team's best pass rusher last season. While Robert Mathis (and I am here to praise Freeney, not dis Mathis, who is an excellent player) had more sacks (eight), he had fewer QB hits (five to nine) and fewer than half the all-important QB hurries (16 to 33). Looking at it that way, Freeney got behind his man 47 times, while Mathis did just 29 times. That Mathis had more sacks seems to me just the luck of the draw. Keep in mind, though, that Freeney did almost nothing but rush the passer (414 rushes in 436 passing plays), while Mathis had more diverse duties (283 of 351).

It's unlikely the Colts can replace Freeney's production (not to mention leadership, charisma and community value) with a player currently on the roster. The outlaw Jerry Hughes showed great improvement last season (four sacks, six hits and 17 hurries in 304 rushes), but I would be surprised if the Colts think he's what they need at the position. The other guys on the roster are just guys until they prove something.

In free agency, it's all about Paul Kruger for me. I know I have been (rightfully) criticized for being a little too impressed by his performances against the Colts and in the playoffs, but his regular-season numbers are strong. In 359 pass rushes, he netted 10 sacks, 12 hits and 33 hurries. You don't have to run that through a mainframe to know those are good numbers. People have pointed out that: a) Kruger benefited from having Terrell Suggs on the other side, and b) that he never did much until his contract year. I'd respond that: a) he'd have Mathis on the other side in basically the same scheme with the Colts, and b) he was playing behind Jarrett Johnson before last season, and often out-performing him. Even better, the Ravens probably won't have the cap space to keep him, and they have Courtney Upshaw waiting in the wings. Kruger's not Freeney as an overall talent, but is younger and might be a better fit.

As for the draft, I'm holding off too many comments on this most volatile of positions until I see more.

Even if they do adequately replace him on the field, there can't be a single Colt fan who will not miss Freeney.

As for Collie, the shock won't be as great. The Grigson regime seems to have taken his absence into account right from the start. Last year's draftees TY Hilton and LaVon Brazill appear ready to take big steps in their second seasons, as does undrafted rookie slot guy Griff Whalen.

There's been widespread speculation that Collie will join his old pal Peyton Manning in Denver. It wouldn't surprise me at all. Still, I'd prefer if he moved on from the game with his health still mostly intact.

***

It would be an utter tragedy if the Colts let Pat McAfee go. Not only is he about the best at what he does, he is also the fun-loving face of the franchise. While it may be all about Andrew Luck, which would you invite to a party?

The options would be a long-term deal or the franchise tag. Don't be too surprised if the team tags his as a precaution while they work out a deal. The tag would cost about $2.9 million, so even if it came down to that, I think think he's worth it.

***

I don't think the Colts would mount a serious pursuit of Charles Woodson, even though he's still a very good player, because of his age and likely contract demands. And they wouldn't touch Titus Young with a 20-foot pole. He's just not a Colt.







4 comments:

bronzegod said...

Hi J.L., again thanks for your thoughts. I'll be glad when the free agency period finally opens. I hope this isn't a dumb question, but do you have sources within the Colt organization? If so, are most of your opinions laced with "insider info" or strictly based on your observations of the organization? Both maybe? Please explain a bit. Peace

Roy said...

Jerry, if you are GM of the COLTS, clearly you would want Freeney back but at the right price. What would be the right price in your opinion- base and performance bonuses? Also, why do you believe Grigson did not even try- at least to the outside world- work out some cap friendly offer to Freeney to stay?

Bottom line: I think he would be gone anyway, but I am surprised they did not at least make some kind of effort.

Jerry Langton said...

BG: No insiders for me. just my own common sense and what I can scrape up.
Roy: Exactly. He'd only be back with a major (even unprecedented) homer discount, but it's terrible not to even make an attempt.

Roy said...

I read a rumor today that the COLTS would Franchise McAfee.