A nose tackle in the first round?

A healthy number of mock drafts on the internet are predicting the Colts will draft a nose tackle in the first round. It makes some sense as the incumbent nose tackle, Mookie Johnson, is an unrestricted free agent (and not all that good anyway). To make a 3-4 front work, a quality nose tackle is more than important, it's essential.

But many believe the Colts already have the answer on their roster. They drafted Alabama's Josh Chapman in the fifth round last season, fully aware that he was recovering from a major injury. In fact, he missed his entire rookie season. He's obviously a talent, but is he the answer?

Injury aside, Chapman certainly was capable in college. Like a stone wall against the run, Chapman used his immense strength to dominate blockers, often challenging two at once. Although he was surprisingly quick off the snap, he won't get behind blockers often (he recorded just 2.5 sacks in four years at Bama). In the passing game, his primary purpose is to occupy blockers to let someone else supply pressure. Of course, the usual liabilities with definitive-style nose tackles apply: Chapman won't make many tackles outside the interior line, will rarely stunt effectively, will only fall into sacks and will always be battling his weight.

His technique is good, and he's a selfless player who relishes his role as a wrestler. His experiences at Bama were similar to what the Colts would ask him to do -- spend most of his time as a two-gap nose tackle, shift over to a more traditional one-gap defensive tackle on occasion and get plenty of rest on passing downs.

So if we take out the injury question, Chapman would appear to be a solid nose tackle prospect. There's no doubt he's limited, but in the role he'd be asked to perform, he represents an upgrade over Johnson.

But you can't take away the injury question. It's been well documented that in his third season with the Crimson Tide, he played with a severe labrum injury, and in his fourth, he actually played (at a consistently high level) on a torn ACL.

While that indicates that he is remarkably tough, it also hints that he's injury prone and perhaps that he's damaged goods. A torn ACL is not like Tommy John surgery, you don't heal stronger than you were before. Still, it's not like he's a halfback, making quick cuts.

But he did have the surgery, performed by the justifiably famous Dr James Andrews, more than a year ago (January 2012), and the Colts activated him late last year, hoping he'd be ready to play. He wasn't, but he seems upbeat and his Twitter feed indicates that he fully expects to take the starting job next season.

For insurance, the Colts have Brandon McKinney and Martin Tevaseu. McKinney was signed from the Ravens last offseason, and was expected to be the starter, but he tore his ACL. If he is back to where he was before, he's a similar type of player to Chapman, but bigger and stronger, but even less mobile and not nearly as explosive. Tevaseu is not in the same class as Chapman or McKinney, but is strong for his size. He played extensively as Johnson's backup last season, but was uninspiring. Oh, and there's Kellen Heard.

I think that the Colts will probably be fine, at least capable, at nose tackle when Chapman and McKinney return. Since both have wonky knees, it's a bit of a risk, but what isn't in the NFL?

Unless a Vince Wolfork-level prospect falls to them at No. 24, and they have solutions in hand at more pressing areas like pass rusher and guard, I would recommend the Colts do not invest their first-round pick in a nose tackle.

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More recent veteran cuts:

Steve Breaston: I used to really like this guy, and he did have a huge season (77-1,006-3) in 2008. He's fallen off since, and I don't see the Colts having much interest in another skinny receiver who, at his best, avoids the middle and is not much help in the red zone. If they wanted that, it'd be easier to re-sign Donnie Avery.

Kevin Boss: Great player a few years back, but concussions have made him unsignable. Not unlike Austin Collie.

David Thomas: The Colts don't go looking for 30-year-old spare parts very often, but Thomas has value as a versatile tight end who can also play slot or even fullback. Thomas is a good route runner with reliable hands, but not a guy who'll split the safeties anymore. A better run blocker than pass blocker, he's more than passable at both. I can't see the Colts inviting him to camp, but I could see them calling him if injuries hit or their other backup options at tight end do not work out.

Johnny Patrick: A third-round pick just a few years back, Patrick was the worst in a bad set of corners in New Orleans last year. On those grounds, I wouldn't touch him (although he would look better in the Colts' scheme than he did in the Saints'). But, considering his tackling ability and skills in zone coverage, I would definitely grab him on the cheap and try to mold him into a free safety. Ah, but that's me. The Colts will probably pass. Late note: Patrick was claimed by the Chargers, whose personnel department is headed by former Colts guy Tom Telesco.

Bart Scott: He was quietly effective last season as an inside linebacker for the Jets, and would probably be the same with the Colts. But I don't see them bringing in a 33-year-old veteran, especially one who's made it clear he'd prefer to return to the Meadowlands.

Josh Baker: Marginal guy with ACL problems, pass.

Jason Smith: Considered one of the biggest busts in draft history, Smith's value now is as a jumbo tight end (extra blocker in short-yardage situations) and, perhaps, as a reclamation project at right tackle. If Joe Gilbert thinks he can bring out the fire in this reluctant dragon, he could be worth a low-cost flyer.

Calvin Pace: The Colts could use a pass rusher, but Pace's glory days are long over.

Eric Smith: Never more than a spot starter and special-teams guy, Smith has some intriguing qualities, but is on the downside of his career. The only scenario I could see him joining the Colts under would be as an injury replacement.

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Other thoughts:

• I'd be surprised if Nate Palmer does not make the team. A legitimate speedster, he's raw, but has a gift.

Colts fans should check out the 2011 MAC championship in which NIU edged Ohio. Palmer was the MVP with 4-115-2 receiving and 4-17-0 rushing. On the opposing side, LaVon Brazill chipped in 8-124-0 receiving and 1-6-0 rushing. And Palmer was getting his passes from fellow Colt Chandler Harnish, who went 26-16-250-3-1 passing and 13-31-0 rushing.

Oh, and Palmer also sang the anthem before NIU games.

With him, Brazill, Reggie Wayne, TY Hilton and Griff Whalen, it may be difficult for a rookie or free agent to crack the roster. Still, the group lacks size. If a big target who can make yards after the catch appears on the horizon, I could see the team making room for him.

• After writing about the danger of high-buck free agents, a case study of sorts occurred to me. Jake Long is a star player (a former No. 1 pick) who plays at a position of need for the Colts. Not only are the Dolphins not putting a franchise tag ($15.4 million) on him, but they are low-balling him with an offer in the $6 million-$7 million range. If he's right and in the right scheme, he's worth close to double that.

If he's right. Long toughed out an injury-plagued 2012 season (finishing on injured reserve), and there has been some talk that he's already breaking down even though he'll be just 28 at the start of next season. That the Dolphins are not aggressively pursuing him is an indication that they are, at best, taking a wait-and-see strategy with him.

And in the right scheme. Long is a power-forward style tackle, and struggled to adjust when the Dolphins moved to a more movement-oriented approach. That style is a lot closer to what the Colts are likely to play in 2013.

Long will find a home this season, just not likely in Indy.

• So Peyton Manning is trying to sell Dwight Freeney on Denver. Could be a nice match. Another good fit would be the Giants. He's from the area, and would thrive in their defense. There are also rumblings Freeney might end up in Atlanta. It would be a good fit football-wise. Any of the three would give him another chance at a Super Bowl.