A lot of people have been predicting big
things from Andrew Luck and the Colts this season. Many of them are buoyed by
the performances of Cam Newton and Andy Dalton last year, and use their success
as evidence Luck will thrive as a rookie. Well, we at ColtPlay hate to rain on
anyone’s parade, but I think it’s time for a reality check. Newton, despite all
his heroics, led a much more talented team than Luck’s to a 6-10 record. And
while it’s true Dalton led the Bengals to the playoffs, he’s the first rookie
quarterback since 1978 to have 20 touchdown passes and eight wins. The
statistical norm for rookie quarterbacks indicates a far lower number of wins
in his first year. Here’s a look at every first-round quarterback’s rookie
win-loss record since 1983. An asterisk indicates a No. 1 pick.
2011
*Cam Newton Panthers Auburn 6-10
Jake Locker Titans Washington 0-0
Blaine Gabbert Jaguars Missouri 4-10
Christian Ponder Vikings Florida State 2-8
2010
*Sam Bradford Rams Oklahoma 7-9
Tim Tebow Broncos Florida 1-2
2009
*Matthew Stafford Lions Georgia 2-8
Mark Sanchez Jets USC 8-7
Josh Freeman Buccaneers Kansas State 3-6
2008
Matt Ryan Falcons Boston College 11-5
Joe Flacco Ravens Delaware 11-5
2007
*JaMarcus Russell Raiders Louisiana State 0-1
Brady Quinn Browns Notre Dame 0-0
2006
Vince Young Titans Texas 8-5
Matt Leinart Cardinals USC 4-7
Jay Cutler Broncos Vanderbilt 2-3
2005
*Alex D. Smith 49ers Utah 2-5
2004
*Eli Manning Chargers Mississippi 1-6
Philip Rivers Giants North Carolina State 0-0
Ben Roethlisberger Steelers Miami (OH) 13-0
J.P. Losman Bills Tulane 0-0
2003
*Carson Palmer Bengals USC 6-7
Byron Leftwich Jaguars Marshall 5-8
Kyle Boller Ravens California 5-4
Rex Grossman Bears Florida 2-1
2002
*David Carr Texans Fresno State 4-12
Joey Harrington Lions Oregon 3-9
Patrick Ramsey Redskins Tulane 2-3
2001
*Michael Vick Falcons Virginia Tech 1-1
2000
Chad Pennington Jets Marshall 0-0
1999
*Tim Couch Browns Kentucky 2-12
Donovan McNabb Eagles Syracuse 2-4
Akili Smith Bengals Oregon 1-3
Daunte Culpepper Vikings Central Florida 0-0
Cade McNown Bears UCLA 2-4
1998
*Peyton Manning Colts Tennessee 3-13
Ryan Leaf Chargers Washington State 3-6
1997
Jim Druckenmiller 49ers Virginia Tech 1-0
1995
Steve McNair Oilers Alcorn State 2-0
Kerry Collins Panthers Penn State 7-6
1994
Heath Shuler Redskins Tennessee 1-7
Trent Dilfer Buccaneers Fresno State 0-2
1993
* Drew Bledsoe Patriots Washington State 5-7
Rick Mirer Seahawks Notre Dame 6-10
1992 supplemental
Dave Brown Giants Duke 0-0
1992
David Klingler Bengals Houston 1-3
Tommy Maddox Broncos UCLA 0-4
1991
Dan McGwire Seahawks San Diego State 1-0
Todd Marinovich Raiders USC 0-1
1990
*Jeff George Colts Illinois 5-7
Andre Ware Lions Houston 0-1
1989 supplemental
Steve Walsh Cowboys Miami 1-4
Timm Rosenbach Cardinals Washington State 0-1
1989
*Troy
Aikman Cowboys UCLA 0-11
1987
*Vinny Testaverde Buccaneers Miami 0-4
Kelly Stouffer Cardinals Colorado State 3-3
Chris Miller Falcons Oregon 0-2
Jim Harbaugh Bears Michigan 0-0
1986
Jim Everett Oilers Purdue 3-2
Chuck Long Lions Iowa 0-2
1985 supplemental
Bernie Kosar Browns Miami 4-6
1984 USFL
*Steve Young Buccaneers Brigham Young 1-4
Wayne Peace Bengals Florida 0-0
Ken Hobart Jets Idaho 0-0
1983
*John Elway Colts Stanford 4-6
Todd Blackledge Chiefs Penn State 0-0
Jim Kelly Bills Miami 4-12 (in 1986, sent
three seasons in USFL)
Tony Eason Patriots Illinois 2-2
Ken O’Brien Jets California-Davis 1-4
Dan Marino Dolphins Pittsburgh 7-2
With a few rare exceptions, first-round
quarterbacks had dismal records in their rookie seasons. Particularly hard hit
were the No. 1 picks. Combined, they have a 49-123 (.285) record, good enough for
an average of 4-11-1 over a 16-game season. Of course, some of the top picks
were absolute dogs, like JaMarcus Russell and Tim Couch, but even the greats,
like Peyton Manning (3-13), Troy Aikman (0-11) and John Elway (4-6), took their
lumps as rookies. There’s a reason for that. Teams bad enough to earn the No. 1
pick (or in Elway’s case, desperate enough to trade for it) usually have a lot
more wrong with them than just their quarterback. Those teams almost always are
also in the first year of a new coach and/or management team.
So let’s look at the 2012 Colts:
Undistinguished halfbacks, a young group of receivers, an offensive line with
as many as four new starters, an unknown quantity on the defensive line, a
linebacking squad made up primarily of guys who were defensive ends just months
ago and perhaps the worst secondary in the NFL. They have a new GM, and a new
coaching staff who are hoping to implement radical changes to both offense and
defense.
In my opinion, Luck would have to be
absolutely spectacular to for the Colts to win even five games in 2012.
In other news, it appears as though GM Ryan
Grigson is still playing favorites with his guys. In the Indy Star, there’s an
article in which they talk about free agent signee Mike McGlynn as not just a
starter, but a leader and, in fact, compared him to the much-respected Hall of
Fame-bound Jeff Saturday. No beef with McGlynn, but he’s never been considered
a top talent at guard and was the No. 3 guy in Cincinnati last season and was
made expendable because of the development of some recent draft picks.
But at least the line is coming into shape. Anthony Castonzo is set at left tackle because he’s the only guy on
the roster who could play at an NFL-level there and finding a replacement for
him would be not just costly, but perhaps fruitless. Three other starters —
McGlynn at right guard, Winston Justice at right tackle and center Samson Satele
— were brought in this offseason by Grigson. The other spot will be an open
competition between basket ball center-turn-tight end-turned-tackle-turned-guard
Joe Reitz (who started ay nine games at the spot last season and graded out
decently if not well) and 2011 second-round draft pick Ben Ijalana. Despite
very high hopes after the draft, Ijalana failed to win a job in training camp
and entered the season as the top backup at tackle. The only action he saw was in
Game 4 against the Buccaneers, when he went in after Castonzo was knocked out.
He played okay for 37 snaps before he too was injured. But his injury was an
ACL tear that put him on injured reserve. So to beat out Reitz, Ijalana would
have to recover his health and learn to play guard. Or maybe he’s too much of a
Polian guy.
*After Ijalana went down, Jeff Linkenbach
shifted over to left tackle, where he was beaten like a rug, and Mike Tepper
filled in fairly well at right tackle.
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