Sunday, June 10, 2012

Who's who at corner

Everybody’s talking about the Colts corners. Critics and fans (even Bill Polian) are berating them, they’re defending themselves and everybody and his brother is reporting that the Colts are interested in Mike “Possum” Jenkins or some other free agent or potentially tradeable corner. While they haven’t acquired Jenkins, and are not likely to at this point, they have traded for one corner, former Bronco Cassius Vaughn, signed two NFL veterans, Korey Lindsey and Justin King, and added three undrafted rookies to add more competition to the holdovers.

Since there have been so many changes, let’s take a look at what the Colts have right now.

The sure starter

25 Jerraud Powers CB 5091/188/4.51c4.43pd in 2009
Powers does not look like a true No. 1 corner, but certainly stands out as the best the Colts have by a very wide margin, and can stand up well if the team provides a decent pass rush.

The specialist

20 Cassius Vaughn CB 5010/192/4.42pd in 2010
Vaughn is a lightning-quick athlete who has started in the NFL and done okay for himself. Although the Colts may be forced to play him outside if nobody else emerges, Vaughn is far better suited to covering slot receivers, and should be able to take on that role (as well as the team’s primary kick returner) if he can stay healthy.

The young veterans

21 Kevin Thomas CB 6000/192/4.41c4.45pd in 2010
Thomas actually does look like a No. 1 starter, but has not played like it. The biggest problem with him has been injuries, which have wiped out two of his last three seasons. Playing essentially as a rookie last season, he was beaten early and often. It’s likely that he will be better for the experience, but there are no guarantees.

36 Chris Rucker CB 6004/195/4.54pd in 2011
Neither the athlete Thomas is nor the natural Powers is, Rucker actually graded out better in coverage than Thomas when he was thrust into the starting lineup as a rookie last season. Both he and the Colts will probably be better off if he’s not starting, but if nobody else takes command of the spot or injuries hit, he could be the guy they run out there play after play.

23 Terrence Johnson CB 5093/190/4.56pd in 2010
A set of injuries forced the Colts to give undrafted Johnson a lot of reps last season, with predictably dreary results. The team is giving him the same benefit of the doubt as they did Thomas and Rucker, and he’ll get a chance to show he’s gotten better. Notably, he played much better in the slot than outside.

37 Brandon King CB 5092/182/4.45e in 2009
While injuries and ineffectiveness ensured that the Colts played all kinds of flotsam and jetsam at corner last year, King remained an afterthought, logging just 19 snaps on defense. And he was terrible on just about all of them. Since he couldn’t get on the field in last year’s rush for warm bodies at the position, the thought of him earning major playing time this season is surprising at best and chilling at worst.

Other people’s problems

42 Korey Lindsey CB 5101/194/4.56pd in 2011
A likeable kid with lots of good traits, but doesn’t seem to have the wheels to stay employed in the NFL.

49 Justin King CB 5107/192/4.31c in 2008
You all know the story, great-looking prospect finally get a chance to play and gets hammered, but that performance was mitigated by the series on injuries he played through. More than anyone, King is a gamble. He may be as atrocious as he looked last season, or could be as good as many thought he would be before it.

The kids

29 Antonio Fenelus CB 5082/190/4.68c4.50pd in 2012
An effective, if not very polished corner, at Wisconsin, Fenelus’ forty time at the Combine cost him a lot of money.

39 Cameron Chism CB 5103/190/4.55pd in 2012
Chism was an effective college corner who may just be too small and too slow to make it in the NFL.

40 Buddy Jackson CB 6001/187/4.37pd in 2012
A long shot at corner, he didn’t start at the position in college, he’s a development project who would need to win the kick return job to stick.

In conclusion

Barring a major acquisition, injury or some other bolt from the blue, I think four of the five (or perhaps six) spots are taken with Powers, Thomas, Rucker and Vaughn. Johnson may seem the natural fifth, but I think that, all other things being equal (or even close to it), the Grigson regime will go with their guy, rather than a Polian holdover. Although a case could be made by an of the six other guys currently in camp, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Colts fifth corner in 2012 comes to them from the waiver wire.

Bonus: There are lots of stats with corners and all of them are compromises at best. But here’s one I think you’ll like. By dividing number of snaps play by the number of times he was thrown at last year, I’ve come up with the respect ratio, or how frequently opposing quarterbacks decided to test them. The higher the number the better:

Powers 804/59 13.63
Rucker 323/25 12.92
Thomas 437/38 11.50
Johnson 284/27 10.52
Lacey 709/68 10.43 no longer with Colts
Tryon 51/5 10.20 no longer with Colts
J King 677/68 9.96 with the Rams
Vaughn 237/29 8.17 with the Broncos
B King 19/5 3.80

Looks about right, especially when you consider Vaughn shared his snaps with Champ Bailey, Chris Harris and Brian Dawkins, not the nobodies the Colts and Rams threw out there.

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