Questions, answers, another Silva and a great big Ellis

First things first, must answer the questions from a reader who would prefer not to give his or her identity (I’m pretty sure it’s Bill Polian):

Do you think the Colts a.) will and b.) should trade back or trade up in next week's draft? I find it ironic that the spots where they usually pick (#28/29/30/31) are probably better suited to trading back than their current spot of #22. It would be nice to have more than 6 picks--though as someone (Bill Walsh?) once said, "it's not where you pick but who you pick." They need 2 or 3, maybe even 4, good players out of this draft.

Well, “Bill,” thanks for reading and thank you for your excellent question. I don’t actually think they should trade down. Extra picks are nice, but the value formula dilutes those extra picks. If you trade down from No. 22 to, say No. 31, what do you pick up? The chart says you get a late third or early fourth rounder, a pick unlikely to net a rookie starter at most positions.

Trading down (especially out of the first) usually happens if a team isn’t impressed by what’s in the first round and has fallen in love with a potential second rounder, as happened in the perfect storm that allowed the Colts to grab Bob Sanders. But this is a first round rich in the positions the Colts desire, and the need for a n offensive lineman to start from Day 1 is so great, I think the No. 22 pick is too valuable to give up.

• Further to Bill’s point, I do think the Colts need upgrades at (not in order) left tackle, right tackle, halfback, right guard, left guard, right defensive tackle, strong safety and return specialist. And they could use depth and/or heirs apparent at quarterback, wide receiver, center and all over the defense.

• At this time of year, everyone is looking at workout numbers. Let’s take a look at the numbers of the guys already on the roster who would have us believe they deserve to be next season’s guards:

61 Jamey Richard

Size: 6046/295 Ten: 1.69 Twenty: 2.89 Forty: 5.22 Bench: 22 Vertical: 26.5 Long jump: 8’11 Shuttle: 4.69 Three-cone: 7.58

65 Jacques McClendon

Size: 6021/308 Ten: 1.82 Twenty: 2.98 Forty: 5.08 Bench: 37 Vertical: 29 Long jump: 8’5 Shuttle: 4.76 Three-cone: 7.70

66 Kyle DeVan

Size: 6015/308 Ten: Twenty: Forty: Bench: Vertical: Long jump: Shuttle: Three-cone:

Note: Devan wasn’t invited to the combine and I can’t track down his pro day numbers.

72 Jeff Linkenbach

Size: 6064/311 Ten: 1.78 Twenty: 2.97 Forty: 5.14 Bench: 22 Vertical: 27.5 Long jump: 8’2 Shuttle: 4.82 Three-cone: 7.76

73 Jaimie Thomas

Size: 6040/323 Ten: 1.78 Twenty: 3.00 Forty: 5.29 Bench: 20 Vertical: 28 Long jump: 8’0 Shuttle: 4.67 Three-cone: 7.99

78 Mike Pollak

Size: 6034/301 Ten: 1.68 Twenty: 2.87 Forty: 4.99 Bench: 29 Vertical: 9’2 Long jump: 9’2 Shuttle: 4.47 Three-cone: 7.49

79 Mike Tepper

Size: 6054/324 Ten: 1.82 Twenty: 3.04 Forty: 5.25 Bench: 28 Vertical: 26.5 Long jump: 7’10 Shuttle: 4.87 Three-cone: 7.66

• The Colts looked at a couple of other prospects, Keanemana Silva, a safety from Hawaii, and Kendrick Ellis, a defensive tackle from Hampton. Since Silva is the more likely of the two to end up in Indy, we should look at him first. He’s an incredible athlete, racking up the following numbers at his pro day:

Size: 6006/206 Ten: 1.52 Twenty: 2.55 Forty: 4.43 Bench: 23 Vertical: 40 Long jump: 10’3 Shuttle: 4.16 Three-cone: 6.97

In 14 starts at free safety as a senior, he recorded 50 tackles, 35 assists, 3-25 tackles for loss, 8-60-0 interceptions, 22 passes defensed and one fumble recovery. He’s not a huge hitter, but a solid open-field tackler. He’s much better in zone than man and still seems to be learning. Usually there are big questions about transfers, but Silva started as a walk-on at Oregon State, had a son then accepted a full-ride scholarship in his home state to help take care of him. He’s a good kid who does a lot of charity work. He’s rising very quickly on draft boards, and the Colts are a likely home for him in the sixth or even fifth.

Ellis is also a transfer, but was dismissed from the University of South Carolina for multiple disciplinary reasons. Nobody doubts his ability on the field, if he plays to his abilities, he could well be the best defensive tackle in the draft. Built like a tall nose tackle (6047/346), he’s actually better suited to play the ol’ 3-technique, as a penetrator. If he reminds me of anyone, it’s Albert Haynesworth. But unfortunately, that comparison extends to his character, as well as his play on the field. He is a potential first rounder, but represents a huge risk. Interestingly, his defensive co-ordinator at South Carolina was former Colt Ellis Johnson, so I’m sure the team has been able to get a solid background check on him.

• Polian went on record as saying passing accuracy can’t be taught at the pro level. I knew he believed that, that’s why I predicted they would start a post-Manning world with a Christian Ponder, not a Jake Locker.