Carter, Rucker and the whole thing

As delighted as I was with the first three Colts picks, I’m a little less so with the other two.

While they definitely needed a halfback, I’m pretty sure Delone Carter is the wrong one. Not that he’s a bad back, not at all – he runs tough, has a low center of gravity, can catch and block. But he’s one of those one-speed guys who lack an extra gear. Okay, enough with the hoary football clichés, my problem with Carter is that he’s just more of the same. All the backs the Colts have had since Edgerrin James’ ACL injury have all been the same guy with varying degrees of this or that quality. But all of them have lacked that kind of spark, the magic that stops defenders in their cleats and gives defensive coordinators nightmares. Wait, more clichés? Yes, but they are apt. Carter will help carry the load, but he won’t be special, he won’t return kicks with great aplomb and he won’t make the Colts’ offense any more exciting – more efficient, perhaps, but not more exciting. Polian has got to realize that the model for the perfect halfback is not James Mungro.

I’m being unduly harsh, of course, but what bothers me is that there were so many speed/moves backs available, and now they have jobs elsewhere. I’m sure Carter will have a long and productive career in Indy, and he does have a rep as a strong between-the-tackles runner – they could definitely use that. Critics have pointed out that he holds the ball in a strange way, but it didn’t lead to fumbling at Syracuse, so I doubt it will in the NFL.

The numbers:

Height: 5085, Weight: 222, 10-yard dash: 1.54 (1.51 at pro day), 20-yard dash: 2.58 (2.53 at pro day), 40-yard dash: 4.54 (4.46 at pro day), Bench press: 27, Vertical jump: 37, Long jump: 10’0 (10’1 at pro day), Shuttle: 4.07, Three-cone: 6.92, Arm length: 31, Hand length: 9.5

The final pick was another good player who might get lost in the shuffle for the Colts, although there is an outside chance he could change positions. And – in a rarity for the Colts – he has serious character questions.

Chris L Rucker is a Michigan State cornerback who was once thought so highly of, he was projected by some as a second rounder. He certainly has the size and strength. He’s not quite smooth enough in coverage to be considered elite, but should be better than average in most situations, especially in the zone-friendly Colts defense. His real skills are in the initial jam, knocking receivers off their routes and tackling. Those abilities could translate well to safety, where the Colts needs are far more pressing than cornerback. More likely, though, Rucker will not play much on defense, at least at first, concentrating instead on special teams and getting better at whichever position they put him at.

I have seen Rucker a few time on tape and was impressed. Check out the Capital One Bowl, in which he spent much of his time isolated one-on-one against Julio Jones (the guy the Falcons traded two firsts, a second and two fourths to pick). Although Rucker was playing hurt, he limited Jones to three catches for 49 yards (only really getting beat once) in an incredibly lopsided affair in which the Tide rolled all over the Spartans.

Rucker’s problems with the law stem from a 2009 brawl that involved several Spartans’ players. He pleaded guilty and was sentenced to probation with the proviso that he not consume alcohol. Less than a year later, he was arrested for DUI, and spent eight days in jail. If you read the official details of his arrest here and here, you get an idea of what happened that night, and Rucker comes off as not that bad a person. I’ve seen some people call him things like a “thug” online, but I’m not sure those two incidents indicate that he’s a bad guy. Of course, they don’t indicate he’s squeaky clean, either. I think he’s a pretty ordinary young man who made a couple of mistakes and is unlikely to repeat them. History shows us that neither Polian nor the Colts are at all interested in problem children, and I’m sure they did much more homework on him than most blog posters and forum commentators. Late note: I also find it interesting that, although Carter was charged with assault after punching out a student at an on-campus snowball fight, nobody called him a "thug" or "character risk."

Is Rucker a terrible pick? Certainly not. He’s a very talented player who can help on specials right away, and perhaps grow into a starting-quality defender. That’s not bad for a sixth rounder. But he’s not a true safety, certainly not the big bopper the Colts could use there, and he’s not a returner, which is a position they could also stand to upgrade.

The numbers:

Height: 6004, Weight: 195, 10-yard dash: 1.65, 20-yard dash: 2.68, 40-yard dash: 4.54, Bench press: 13, Vertical jump: 33.5, Long jump: 9’11, Shuttle: 4.35, Three-cone: 6.87, Arm length: 33, Hand length: 9

To sum it all up, I would have to say that I am more satisfied with this draft than any the Colts have had since 1999. Anthony Castonzo looks like a bastion of solidity at left tackle, Ben Ijalana should join him and start from Day 1 elsewhere on the line, while Drake Nevis should get some quality reps on the defensive line and contribute right away. There’s no question that the Colts needed all three of those guys. Carter is not my favorite halfback, but should help carry the load and get those tough yards. Rucker is a bit of a risk, but it’s hard not to like his upside.

Some things on my wish list did not get fulfilled – most notably, a starting quality strong safety, a young quarterback and a return specialist who can also make plays on offense – but it’s really hard to complain when you look at the Colts’ first three picks.

Nevis

Come on, did any of you really think the Colts would draft a giant space-eating defensive tackle? Instead, Polian stuck to the plan and selected Drake Nevis, a defensive tackle who has everything you want, except size. And he won’t get any bigger. And that’s just about the scouting report on him. Great kid, motor’s always running, uses his hands well, splits double teams, disrupts offensive plans, moves well both forward and side-to-side and tackles well. The only problem, as you may already have realized, is that he’s not very tall, and not very heavy. Which prompts the question – will he be able to do in the NFL what he did in college? I think the answer is yes and no. He is likely to show flashes, even stretches, of brilliance but will also be overpowered, overwhelmed and engulfed at inopportune times.

The numbers:

Height: 6005, Weight: 294, 10-yard dash: 1.67, 20-yard dash: 2.85, 40-yard dash: 5.06, Bench press: 31, Vertical jump: 30.5, Long jump: 9’4, Shuttle: 4.65, Three-cone: 7.71, Arm length: 31.5, Hand length: 9.375

So what’s left? Without a fifth or seventh pick, the Colts should still be able to pick up a decent safety and an offensive spark. Only five safeties have been selected so far (unfortunately, one of them was Jaiquan Jarrett, who is now Eagles’ property). Some notables who remain include: Tyler Sash, Da’Norris Searcy, Shiloh Keo and DeAndre McDaniel. And there are tons and tons of speedy offensive players left, like Kendall Hunter, Taiwan Jones, Da’Rel Scott, Jacquizz Rodgers, Edmund Gates or Denarius Moore. Searcy and Jones would really put a nice pair of exclamation marks on an already promising draft crop. But this is Bill Polian pulling the strings, and he hasn't drafted anyone out of the blue yet, so the picks could just as likely be Keanemana Silva and Chad Spann.

Ijalana

Wow. Again. I’m very impressed with the Colts for trading up, and agin they selected a very impressive player at a position of need. Ben Ijalana played left tackle in college, but because of his height (and now the presence of Anthony Castonzo on the roster) many are projecting him at guard. I see him more as a right tackle – I mean, he has 36-inch arms for Jiminy’s sake – with Charlie Johnson pushed inside to guard. Or it could go the other way, depending on Ijalana’s feet. The numbers:

Height: 6035, Weight: 317, 10-yard dash: 1.75, 20-yard dash: 2.93, 40-yard dash: 5.20, Bench Reps: DNP, Vertical jump: 25.5, Long jump: 8’9, Shuttle: 4.70, Three-cone: 7.75, Arm length: 36, Hand length: 10.5

The Colts are now minus a fifth rounder, but so what? Looks like they have two starters on the offensive line.

So what’s next? Safety? Receiver? Halfback? Defensive tackle? Quarterback? I’m thinking offensive gamebreaker. Jacquizz? Hunter? Jernigan?

Castonzo

All I can say is wow. The Colts drafted the best lineman in the draft. Anthony Castonzo is a tailor-made left tackle, at No. 22. If you look at all my mocks, you'll see I had Derek Sherrod (basically a poor man's Castonzo) because I was sure the 6'7 Rhodes Scholar candidate would have been long gone. Note: Sherrod was later astutely snatched up by the Super Bowl-champion Packers ten picks later.

I don't have much but praise for the pick. Sure he could add some weight and strength, but he has gained 90 pounds in the last four years (and the strength that comes with it), so another 15 or so on his frame wouldn't hurt. He starts from Day 1 and protects Peyton Manning's blindside until he retires.

The numbers:

Height: 6070, Weight: 311, 10-yard dash: 1.80, 20-yard dash: 2.92, 40-yard dash: 5.21, Bench press: 28, Vertical jump: 29½ , Long Jump: 8’9, Shuttle: 4.40, Three-cone: 7.25, Arm length: 34.5, Hand length: 10.625

So now what? I think the next pick could be an offensive play maker (Jerrel Jernigan?), another offensive lineman (Ben Ijalana?), a safety (Tyler Sash) or a defensive tackle (Drake Nevis). I'm also still seriously under the belief that Ricky Stanzi will be wearing blue.

1 Carolina Cam Newton QB 6’5 248 Auburn

It kind of had to happen, it’s the kind of risk that you need to take to build a winner, I think he’ll succeed

2 Denver Von Miller OLB 6’3 246 Texas A&M

He’s undersized, but they need a pass-rush in the worst way and seem to be following the LeBeau plan, that’s smart

3 Buffalo Marcell Dareus DT 6’3 319 Alabama

No brainer, they suck against the run and Dareus had the talent to be the top pick

4 Cincinnati A.J. Green WR 6’4 207 Georgia

I guess they have an idea who’ll play QB there (I should have known Brown would never give in to Carson palmer’s pouting), and they need to clear out the old guard

5 Arizona Patrick Peterson CB 6’0 219 LSU

Again, I believe they have a plan at QB that I don’t know about; Peterson is a great value, but he’s not the sure-thing the media had represented him as; a tremendous athlete, but not a natural at the position like Joe Haden is

6 Atlanta Julio Jones WR 6’3 220 Alabama

I know, I know, they are following the Polian plan of overwhelming your opponents with offense, but their pass rush is weak and is Jones really worth two first, a second and two fourths?

7 San Francisco Aldon Smith DE 6’5 255 Missouri

Nothing against Smith, but the Harbaughs are playing to get a great pick next season

8 Tennessee Jake Locker QB 6’3 231 Washington

I could not have wished for anything better; Locker simply lacks the accuracy and drive to be a big winner in the NFL

9 Dallas Tyron Smith OT 6’5 307 Southern California

Everyone knew this was going to happen; good value starts on the right side while learning the game then moves to left

10 Jacksonville Blaine Gabbert QB 6’4 234 Missouri

I have no idea why he lasted this long and they were smart to trade up to get him as it only cost them their second; no, he’s not Sam Bradford, but he’s better than David Garrard and Jake Locker and, in all likelihood, Cam Newton

11 Houston J.J. Watt DE 6’6 285 Wisconsin

They need help all over the defense, so they took the most solid prospect, boring but astute

12 Minnesota Christian Ponder QB 6’2 229 Florida State

Nice pick if they design the offense to his abilities and it looks like they will with Bill Musgrave at the helm

13 Detroit Nick Fairley DT 6’5 314 Auburn

This is great, they need corners badly, but how do you block Suh, Fairley and Vanden Bosch?

14 St. Louis Robert Quinn DE 6’4 265 North Carolina

Nice pick to have fall in your lap; still need receivers badly

15 Miami Mike Pouncey OG 6’5 303 Florida

As predicted by most everyone, fills a need

16 Washington Ryan Kerrigan DE 6’4 267 Purdue

So many holes to fill, so they just got a nice player, trading down shows they had no faith in this year’s crop of QBs

17 New England Nate Solder OT 6’8 319 Colorado

Immense potential, but will take a while to develop – they have the time

18 San Diego Corey Liuget DT 6’2 298 Illinois

Ho hum, nice player, nice pick

19 New York Giants Prince Amukamara CB 6’0 206 Nebraska

What a gift, he’s not really what they needed most, but how do you pass him up? More NFL-ready than Peterson in my opinion

20 Tampa Bay Adrian Clayborn DE 6’3 281 Iowa

We all knew they were drafting an end, Clayborn could be the piece that pushes them into the NFL’s elite

21 Cleveland Phil Taylor DT 6’4 355 Baylor

Smart trade, smart pick; the Browns are rebuilding and can use the extra picks, Taylor lines up next to Atyba Rubin inside to form a huge wall; receivers, ends come later

22 Indianapolis Anthony Castonzo OT 6’7 311 Boston College 1

Just what they needed

23 Philadelphia Danny Watkins OG 6’3 310 Baylor

Watkins represents a good choice anywhere he goes

24 New Orleans Cameron Jordan DE 6’4 287 California

Nice pick, but I think a speedier guy would have helped more (if there was one available)

25 Seattle James Carpenter OT 6’5 300 Alabama

They see something in him I don’t

26 Kansas City Jon Baldwin WR 6’5 230 Pittsburgh

A physical presence sure, but a No. 1 receiver? Maybe in the far off future

27 Baltimore Jimmy Smith CB 6’2 211 Colorado

Great player, but a character risk

28 New Orleans Mark Ingram HB 5’9 215 Alabama

29 Chicago Gabe Carimi OT 6’7 314 Wisconsin

They needed o-line help and he was the best of what was left

30 New York Jets Muhammad Wilkerson DT 6’5 300 Temple

Not really bulky enough to be a nose, and what they really needed was rush backers

31 Pittsburgh Cameron Heyward DE 6’5 294 Ohio State

They lucked out

32 Green Bay Derek Sherrod OT 6’5 321 Mississippi State

As did they

Just a few hours now

A look at a few last-minute prospects who have spoken with the Colts (mostly small schoolers)

Anthony Bratton SS Delaware

6001/213 Ten: 1.52 Twenty: 2.62 Forty: 4.50 Bench: 15 Vertical: 37 Long jump: 10’5 Shuttle: 4.09 Three-cone: 6.71

2011 stats: 55 tackles, 41 assists, 3-10 tackles for loss, 0.5-7 sacks, 2-3-0 interceptions, 12 passes defensed, 2 forced fumbles

Likely draft round: UDFA

Comment: Tough safety who’s much better going forward than back; troubles with coverage could lead to a special-teams-only career, but he has the skills and attitude to succeed there – has played some wide receiver and returner

Ron Parker FS Newberry

5117/206 Ten: 1.51 Twenty: 2.49 Forty: 4.35 Bench: 17 Vertical: 32 Long jump: 10’3 Shuttle: 4.15 Three-cone: 6.74

2011 stats: 45 tackles, 14 assists, 2-2 tackles for loss, 5-1-0 interceptions, 13 passes defensed, 3-72-1 fumble recoveries, 1 forced fumble

Likely draft round: 6th

Comment: Great coverage safety with ballhawking skills (11 picks in his last 18 games); unbelievably athletic but incredibly raw – a great pick for the future, but don’t expect much right away

Larry Dean OLB Valdosta State

5116/229 Ten: 1.50 Twenty: NA Forty: 4.50 Bench: 22 Vertical: 36.5 Long jump: 10’1 Shuttle: 4.37 Three-cone: 6.79

2011 stats: 49 tackles, 73 assists, 8.5-45, 1-6-1 interception, 3 passes defensed, 1-12-1 fumble recovery, 1 forced fumble, 1 blocked kick

Likely draft round: UDFA

Comment: Athletic, do-everything outside linebacker who is smaller than NFL teams want and could project to strong safety – eerily reminiscent of former Colt Jordan Senn, who has carved out a nice career with the Panthers

David Akinniyi DE North Carolina State

6035/254 Ten: 1.72 Twenty: 2.71 Forty: 4.79 Bench: 18 Vertical: 35 Long jump: 9’8 Shuttle: 4.46 Three-cone: 7.00

2011 stats: 12 tackles, 8 assists, 5-31 tackles for loss, 2.5-23 sacks, 1-0-0 fumble recovery, 1 forced fumble

Likely draft round: UDFA

Comment: Great kid, great athlete, played 5-technique at NC State but needs seasoning and development – had 141 tackles, 22 tackles for loss and 12 sacks in 34 games at Northeastern before transferring when the Huskies dropped football – could be a steal

Andrew Soucy DT Eastern Kentucky

6021/311 Ten: 1.75 Twenty: 3.09 Forty: 5.28 Bench: 32 Vertical: 30 Long jump: 8’9 Shuttle: 4.56 Three-cone: 7.59

2011 stats: 15 tackles, 13 assists, 9.5-42 tackles for loss, 4-30 sacks, 1-0-0 fumble recovery, 1 forced fumble, 1 blocked kick

Likely draft round: UDFA

Comment: Monstrously strong interior lineman who produced at low level of competition but has lots and lots to learn

Matt Szymanski K SMU

6017/205 numbers not important because he’s a kicker

2011 stats: 7-12 field goals, 32-32 extra points, 52-2,149-9 (14 in 20) punting, 19-1,249-5 kickoffs, 2-30-0 rushing

Likely draft round: UDFA

Comment: Big leg, likely to stick in the NFL as a kickoff specialist

Jake Laptad DE Kansas

6036/257 Ten: 1.75 Twenty: 2.82 Forty: 4.95 Bench: 20 Vertical: 31.5 Long jump: 9’3 Shuttle: 4.55 Three-cone: 7.75

2011 stats: 22 tackles, 16 assists, 8.5-38 tackles for loss, 4.5-27 sacks, 3 forced fumbles

Likely draft round: UDFA

Comment: Great guy, good performer who may lack athleticism for NFL

Cliff Matthews DE South Carolina

6034/257 Ten: 1.65 Twenty: 2.72 Forty: 4.81 Bench: 17 Vertical: 32 Long jump: 9’4 Shuttle: 4.37 Three-cone: 7.21

2011 stats: 30 tackles, 14 assists, 8.5-43 tackles for loss, 5.5-34 sacks, 2 passes defensed, 4 forced fumbles

Likely draft round: 5th

Comment: Great athlete who seems to lack any real dedication to the game, upside is high, downside is scary

Preston Dial TE Alabama

6021/238 did not participate in workouts after a serious knee injury

2011 stats: 25-264-5 receiving

Likely draft round: 7th

Comment: College fullback and tight end with receiving skills should translate into H-back for most offenses in the NFL, big-time special-teams contributor

Brian Maddox HB South Carolina

5101/232 Ten: 1.75 Twenty: 2.79 Forty: 4.83 Bench: 23 Vertical: 32.5 Long jump: 10’1 Shuttle: 4.65 Three-cone: 7.19

2011 stats: 74-391-3 rushing, 10-67-0 receiving,

Likely draft round: UDFA

Comment: Stocky, multipurpose back who could never win starting job with the Gamecocks

Chris Dieker QB Southern Illinois

6051/232 Ten: 1.69 Twenty: 2.82 Forty: 4.92 Bench: NA Vertical: 32 Long jump: 9’4 Shuttle: 4.44 Three-cone: 7.30

2011 stats: 256-158-1,816-15-11 passing, 96-272-6 rushing

Likely draft round: UDFA

Comment: Looked good (15-4 record as a starter) until breaking his collarbone as a junior and looking tentative as a senior; a student of the Manning brothers – looks like a camp arm at this point

• I’m increasing sure the Colts are after Iowa’s Ricky Stanzi, he has the look of a future starter to me

• Blue MD wants to know why the Colts seem to have no love for Kyle DeVan and tons for Donald Brown. He suggests that new running backs coach David Walker has something to do with Brown’s situation. I think the Colts have seen DeVan at his best and feel he’s eminently replaceable. But they invested a first-round pick in Brown, and almost certainly hope he can put something together now that he’s got his feet wet. Besides, Joseph Addai and Mike Hart are not under contract. If the season started today, the Colts would have just Brown, Javarris James and Devin Moore at halfback. Yikes.

• That reminds me, keep an eye on Pittsburgh halfback Dion Lewis. He’s only three years out of high school, tiny (5065/193) and not that fast (4.56c/4.47pd), but was a favourite of Walker’s when he coached him, and has some very shifty moves. Late rounder, but he’s better than Hart.

Just a few final, predraft thoughts

I like this article. In it, Polian speaks about how it takes a few years to evaluate prospects. He blames injuries for slowing both Mike Pollak (left) and Tony Ugoh’s development and goes on to say that it was Ugoh’s inability to recover that led to his eventual dismissal. He also says that although he thinks Pollak has contributed, his play has not been up to that standard of safety Melvin Bullitt or receiver Austin Collie. Kinda makes me think he might be leaning toward re-signing Bullitt. The flip side of Polian’s cogent argument is that if injuries derailed Ugoh and Pollak, then why is Collie, who was more severely injured than either, a paragon of player development?

• Peyton Manning admitted to throwing concussion-related baseline testing. No surprise. This is a fellow who had missed one snap due to injury in 12 seasons, and that was for a broken jaw. Clearly, playing is more important to him than his health.

• Am I nuts or could there really be five or six quarterbacks selected in the first round? Looks like the Colts will be shut out for a development guy early. Still, I think they take a flyer on North Carolina’s TJ Yates or a similar prospect later on.

• A final look at draft needs would have to include a starting left tackle and upgrades all over the offensive line and a home run hitter on offense either at halfback or receiver. The defense, as always, could use some beef up front and a new safety would be a boon.

• Have you heard of Scout.com’s Draft Muncher? They look at 46 mock drafts to determine who the experst think each team will select in the first round. As of this morning, 16 drafts had the Colts drafting Colorado’s Nate Solder, ten had Boston College’s Anthony Castonzo, seven had Illinois’ Corey Luiget, five had Wisconsin’s Gabe Carimi and four other players were also named at least once. I’m glad the pundits are leaning toward a left tackle, but I still like Mississippi State's Derek Sherrod better than Solder or Carimi and expect Castonzo to be gone by No. 22.

Last man scouted

As the draft draws nearer, it’s time to wrap up. Don’t go looking for the latest guy the Colts worked out in your draft books, but don’t be surprised if he gets drafted. Chris Posinski is a free safety from Wyoming, who is a bit stiff and straight-linish in coverage, but is a great open field tackler and an incredible all-around athlete. Check out his pro day numbers:

6010/20, Ten: 1.54, Twenty: 2.60, Forty: 4.39, Bench: 14, Vertical: 39.5, Long jump: 11’2, Shuttle: 4.28, Three-cone: 6.85

I don’t think he steps in and starts, but he could well be a valuable spare-part/special teamer who could eventually work his way into the lineup.

Happy predicting Colts fans. In our house, we have a pie riding on who gets the most hits in the first round.

Is football back?

If the lockout is indeed over, the Colts will have to tend to their free agents. The ones they tendered and apparently intend to keep are starting halfback Joseph Addai, starting left tackle Charlie Johnson (although he could find himself at guard if the Colts, as expected, find a better option at left tackle), on-again, off-again starting strong safety Melvin Bullitt, starting weakside linebacker Clint Session, starting defensive tackle Antonio Johnson (above) and two defensive tackles of dubious merit named Daniel Muir and Eric Foster. Of course, if the old agreement holds, and it looks like it will, Peyton Manning is a franchise player and not going anywhere.

My take? Addai’s too plodding to be an effective starter, but would be a valuable role player if another quality back was added. Johnson is a good guard who can fake it at left tackle if he has help and should not be let go. Bullitt is a fan favourite, but is also the kind of guy you want to have on the roster but not starting. Session’s hot and cold, but a quality player worth keeping, Johnson makes the Colts’ defense much, much better when he plays, while Muir and Foster and guys who have shown flashes, but have also been dominated for long stretches.

The following were not tendered: ordinary safety Al Afalava, ineffective defensive end or tackle Keyunta Dawson, decent guard Kyle DeVan, horrible safety Aaron Francisco, sluggish linebacker Tyjuan Hagler, slow safety Ken Hamelin, ancient halfback Dom Rhodes, slo-mo halfback Mike Hart, a guy named Mike Richardson, unathletic tight end Gijon Robinson, slow Jamie Silva and always-available Michael Toudouze.

• Still more questions:

1. Can the Watkins kid play LT?

I don’t really know. I mean, he played well there at the collegiate level, but his height (6033) and arm length (34.25) are making those “in the know” project him to guard. To tell you the truth, I think he’d be okay outside but would be better inside. He reminds me a lot of Brandon Albert, even though he played guard in college and tackle in the NFL. Watkins would probably represent an improvement of Charlie Johnson at left tackle once he gets his feet wet, but is not the ideal candidate outside.

2. What about taking him first and that Wisniewski kid 2nd? I’d like to see the Colts toughen up on the OL.

Do you guys remember his dad? Not his uncle, but his dad, Leo, who played nose tackle for some really awful Colts teams. Loved him. He had impeccable hand work and it translated to a remarkable number of sacks for the position (14.5 in 35 career games, 7 in 14 games in 1984). Injuries derailed him. Anyway, the boy, Stefen, is the complete package at center who should also be able to excel at guard in the NFL. The Colts should be delighted if he fell to them in the second round. If they selected both him and Watkins, they would have two very strong and versatile offensive linemen for years to come, although no elite left tackle. And forget Wisniewski there, he’s even shorter than Watkins and has very short 33-inch arms.

3. Also, what about McElroy as a QB in the 6th?

I’m not sold. He has subpar arm strength, a hitch in his delivery and gets the yips under pressure. Heck, the Colts already have Curtis Painter …

Qs and As

Wow, lots of questions. Let’s get to them all.

From “Bill Polian” (aka tmilohan from Ohio)

1. Asks if I agree with LT, G, DT, SS, RB/WR as the Colts’ needs.

Yes, but not in that order.

2. Could Tepper be the answer even if he has less impressive measurable than Pollak?

Hard to say. Pollak had great measurables, but so did Jamey Richard and Steve Justice, and all three have been major washouts so far. Tepper is a college tackle getting over a series of major injuries and is nothing more than a projection inside. But he has rare size, strength and intelligence and would not surprise me if he stuck.

From Blue MD

1. I also think the colts should trade back, but only if 3 of 1er OTs/DTs Rounders are at 22 (Castonzo, JJ Watt, Carimi, Liuget, Sherrod). The “lower” upside/lower risk Sherrod, should be the pick

I’m a huge Sherrod supporter. Castonzo is likely to have been selected by No. 22, and I’m not as high on Carimi, who I don’t think is the athlete you want at LT, and not all that interested in any defensive linemen in the first round.

2. 1 DT of Paea, Taylor, Wilkerson, Heyward, Ballard, in the 2nd?; or this is the place to trade down and get a 3er tier DT (Jenkins, Nevis, Ellis, Casey or even Fua)

I think the hype machine has been in love with Paea since his Combine performance and he’ll be overdrafted. Sure he’s strong and has been productive in the college game, but he lacks any finesse and his instincts are just so-so – that will make the transition to the NFL very tough. Taylor will also be overdrafted because of his size and how many teams are running 30-fronts. Character and condition issues make me think the Colts would pass on him. Heyward is more a Colts-like player and could make an interesting pairing with Fili Moala inside. I certainly don’t see him falling to the end of Round 2, though. Ballard? He’s a possibility, but I hope they don’t choose him. The third echelon guys you mention make varying degrees of sense to me, my favourites being Nevis and Jarvis.

3. Da’Norris Searcy: there are 10 or more safeties with more “ceiling;” could He be at later rounds. He is a good pick: good tackler,he can cover slot receivers, steady (UNC coaches’),returner, good 2010 production, and athletic (40=4.54, Benching=27, Vertical=33, Arm=33 1/2). He sounds like a Colt.

I’m with you. He’s one of a few safety prospects I really like this year.

4. The expectation is: 6-7 QBs in rounds (Rs) 1-2, 20s D.liners in Rs 1-3, 15s O.liners in Rs 1-3, 20s DBs in Rs 1-4, 10s RBs in Rs 2-4; hence, high value non-pash rushers LBs will fall. Will the Colts consider a LB in mid rounds? (Clint Sesssion is FA).

I hope not, but they may well. Even though Larry Coyer is more likely to blitz than any other defensive co-ordinator the Colts have had in the Polian/Manning era, it’s still not a huge part of the defense. And look at the last time the Colts drafted a blitzer at the position – they got Phillip Wheeler.

• In other news, the Colts met with Bowie State WR Derrick McPhearson. It might just be because he was a local high school phenom, but he’s a legitimate prospect. He’s bounced around from receiver to defensive back and back to wideout and from Illinois to Hampton to Bowie State. He is incredibly raw as a receiver, but is a natural as a return man. I don’t see anyone spending a draft pick on him, but he’ll be invited to someone’s summer camp.

Questions, answers, another Silva and a great big Ellis

First things first, must answer the questions from a reader who would prefer not to give his or her identity (I’m pretty sure it’s Bill Polian):

Do you think the Colts a.) will and b.) should trade back or trade up in next week's draft? I find it ironic that the spots where they usually pick (#28/29/30/31) are probably better suited to trading back than their current spot of #22. It would be nice to have more than 6 picks--though as someone (Bill Walsh?) once said, "it's not where you pick but who you pick." They need 2 or 3, maybe even 4, good players out of this draft.

Well, “Bill,” thanks for reading and thank you for your excellent question. I don’t actually think they should trade down. Extra picks are nice, but the value formula dilutes those extra picks. If you trade down from No. 22 to, say No. 31, what do you pick up? The chart says you get a late third or early fourth rounder, a pick unlikely to net a rookie starter at most positions.

Trading down (especially out of the first) usually happens if a team isn’t impressed by what’s in the first round and has fallen in love with a potential second rounder, as happened in the perfect storm that allowed the Colts to grab Bob Sanders. But this is a first round rich in the positions the Colts desire, and the need for a n offensive lineman to start from Day 1 is so great, I think the No. 22 pick is too valuable to give up.

• Further to Bill’s point, I do think the Colts need upgrades at (not in order) left tackle, right tackle, halfback, right guard, left guard, right defensive tackle, strong safety and return specialist. And they could use depth and/or heirs apparent at quarterback, wide receiver, center and all over the defense.

• At this time of year, everyone is looking at workout numbers. Let’s take a look at the numbers of the guys already on the roster who would have us believe they deserve to be next season’s guards:

61 Jamey Richard

Size: 6046/295 Ten: 1.69 Twenty: 2.89 Forty: 5.22 Bench: 22 Vertical: 26.5 Long jump: 8’11 Shuttle: 4.69 Three-cone: 7.58

65 Jacques McClendon

Size: 6021/308 Ten: 1.82 Twenty: 2.98 Forty: 5.08 Bench: 37 Vertical: 29 Long jump: 8’5 Shuttle: 4.76 Three-cone: 7.70

66 Kyle DeVan

Size: 6015/308 Ten: Twenty: Forty: Bench: Vertical: Long jump: Shuttle: Three-cone:

Note: Devan wasn’t invited to the combine and I can’t track down his pro day numbers.

72 Jeff Linkenbach

Size: 6064/311 Ten: 1.78 Twenty: 2.97 Forty: 5.14 Bench: 22 Vertical: 27.5 Long jump: 8’2 Shuttle: 4.82 Three-cone: 7.76

73 Jaimie Thomas

Size: 6040/323 Ten: 1.78 Twenty: 3.00 Forty: 5.29 Bench: 20 Vertical: 28 Long jump: 8’0 Shuttle: 4.67 Three-cone: 7.99

78 Mike Pollak

Size: 6034/301 Ten: 1.68 Twenty: 2.87 Forty: 4.99 Bench: 29 Vertical: 9’2 Long jump: 9’2 Shuttle: 4.47 Three-cone: 7.49

79 Mike Tepper

Size: 6054/324 Ten: 1.82 Twenty: 3.04 Forty: 5.25 Bench: 28 Vertical: 26.5 Long jump: 7’10 Shuttle: 4.87 Three-cone: 7.66

• The Colts looked at a couple of other prospects, Keanemana Silva, a safety from Hawaii, and Kendrick Ellis, a defensive tackle from Hampton. Since Silva is the more likely of the two to end up in Indy, we should look at him first. He’s an incredible athlete, racking up the following numbers at his pro day:

Size: 6006/206 Ten: 1.52 Twenty: 2.55 Forty: 4.43 Bench: 23 Vertical: 40 Long jump: 10’3 Shuttle: 4.16 Three-cone: 6.97

In 14 starts at free safety as a senior, he recorded 50 tackles, 35 assists, 3-25 tackles for loss, 8-60-0 interceptions, 22 passes defensed and one fumble recovery. He’s not a huge hitter, but a solid open-field tackler. He’s much better in zone than man and still seems to be learning. Usually there are big questions about transfers, but Silva started as a walk-on at Oregon State, had a son then accepted a full-ride scholarship in his home state to help take care of him. He’s a good kid who does a lot of charity work. He’s rising very quickly on draft boards, and the Colts are a likely home for him in the sixth or even fifth.

Ellis is also a transfer, but was dismissed from the University of South Carolina for multiple disciplinary reasons. Nobody doubts his ability on the field, if he plays to his abilities, he could well be the best defensive tackle in the draft. Built like a tall nose tackle (6047/346), he’s actually better suited to play the ol’ 3-technique, as a penetrator. If he reminds me of anyone, it’s Albert Haynesworth. But unfortunately, that comparison extends to his character, as well as his play on the field. He is a potential first rounder, but represents a huge risk. Interestingly, his defensive co-ordinator at South Carolina was former Colt Ellis Johnson, so I’m sure the team has been able to get a solid background check on him.

• Polian went on record as saying passing accuracy can’t be taught at the pro level. I knew he believed that, that’s why I predicted they would start a post-Manning world with a Christian Ponder, not a Jake Locker.

Another day, another mock

1/22 Derek Sherrod T Mississippi State 6053/321 5.18c

I still think he's the best option at No. 22

2/53 Jerrel Jernigan WR Troy 5087/185 4.46c

Although I’d prefer a halfback here, the Colts have to get someone who can add some spark to their offense and special teams; Jernigan has some Steve Smith to him

3/87 Jaiquawn Jarrett S Temple 5117/198 4.62c

They need a safety who can cover and help out in the run game

4/119 Jake Fitzpatrick C TCU 6017/200 5.31pd

He’s no great athlete, but he confounded Phil Taylor when they met and still has upside

5/152 TJ Yates QB North Carolina 6033/219 5.06c

No Manning 2.0, but a heady backup who could be covered up in a West Coast if it came to that

6/188 Frank Kearse DT Alabama A&M 6040/315 5.30pd

Whoa-oh, here he comes, he’s a maneater …

Busy or not ... I gotta blog

Back again. I’ll start with some question from Roy.

What say you about Tryon?

I say I love him. Both the stats and the eyeball test gave him high marks this season and, if the Colts’ corners are healthier this year, they would have the advantage of playing Tryon in more advantageous matchups. And he only cost a seventh-round pick.

Chances of Kevin Thomas becoming a player?

Good, if he can stay healthy, Thomas has strong measurables and good football sense. Going by his college tapes, he’s strong in press coverage and is probably the most skilled blitzer the Colts have had at the position in my memory. His best skill is open-field tackling, so at worst he helps on specials. I see him as competing for the No. 4 spot in 2011 and maybe starting in 2012.

Your thoughts on why Hughes has such a inactive rookie season?

He had a hard time adjusting to the Colts’ rather complicated defense – many players, like Fili Moala for example, take a year to master it. It’s hard to make much of an impact as a pass-rushing end with Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis taking so many snaps. I would still rank him as a top prospect, but I have to admit my confidence that he’ll break out has dimmed a little.

In other news:

While other Colts – like Austin Collie – are rehabbing at or ahead of schedule, Jamie Silva’s ACL is still a big problem. That only underlines the Colts’ need for an immediate upgrade at strong safety. Although Iowa’s Tyler Sash makes a ton of sense, I really like North Carolina’s DaNorris Searcy (left) and there's another safety prospect listed below who deserves a look-see from all Colts fans.

There's a persistent rumor that Bears defensive tackle Tommie Harris will sign with the Colts when the lockout ends. That scenario is kind of like being bitten by a piranha while swimming in a lake in Minnesota – it’s not theoretically impossible, but we all know it’s not gonna happen.

If you look at the players who the Colts have visited and scouted you can get a pretty good idea of who they’re going to draft and where. It’s not that they will draft any of these guys, but if they look at four first-round-level left offensive tackles, you can expect they will at least consider a left tackle in the first round. The number beside the player is his ranking on the NFLDraftScout.com database.

Quarterbacks

56 Colin Kaepernick QB Nevada

63 Andy Dalton QB TCU

297 TJ Yates QB North Carolina

Analysis: Kapernick and Dalton have about the same value, but for different reasons. Kaepernick is a big arm and Dalton is a big producer. Either could become an NFL starter, with Kaepernick having a higher ceiling and a much lower floor. Yates is an under-rated prospect who sees the field extremely well, but doesn’t have the arm strength or athleticism to transcend.

Halfbacks

441 Chad Spann HB North Illinois

Analysis: Spann’s a back like I like ’em – short, wide and productive. Still, he’s a third-day pick at best.

Fullbacks

Analysis: None? Interesting.

Wide receivers

44 Leonard Hankerson WR

49 Jerrel Jernigan WR Troy

601 Jarred Fayson WR Illinois

Analysis: I’m surprise – well, not surprised but disappointed – that the Colts are looking at receivers high. Hankerson is a great talent, but not the kind of natural football player and hard worker who could replace Reggie Wayne. A nice addition? Yes. A future No. 1? Probably not. Jernigan makes more sense, not as a No. 1, but as a slot/halfback/return guy who can score from anywhere. Fayson’s a project who hasn’t developed in part through hard luck.

Tight ends

Analysis: None? Interesting.

Centers and Guards

228 Jake Kirkpatrick C TCU

301 Ryan Bartholomew C Syracuse

667 John Gianninoto G UNLV

Analysis: Same ol’, same ol’. Both Kirkpatrick and Bartholomew are smart, hard-working but limited players. I wouldn’t be surprised to see either suit up with the ol’ horseshoe.

Offensive tackles

14 Tyron Smith T USC

22 Derek Sherrod T Mississippi State

24 Nate Solder T Colorado

630 Matt Murphy T UNLV

Analysis: Hmmm, there are five left tackles considered worthy of first-round consideration, and the Colts have dined three of them. Note that the three are all extraordinary athleteic specimens for their size and position and are known more for pass pro than run blocking.

Defensive tackles

29 Phil Taylor DT Baylor

400 Zach Clayton DT Auburn

448 Frank Kearse DT Alabama A&M

728 Teryl White DT North Carolina Central

Analysis: Ordinarily, I’d be delighted that the Colts are looking at a 350-pound first-round nose tackle, but not this year, there’s too much of a need at offensive tackle. Clayton is more of a 3-technique, but Kearse is another monster. I’d like to see a big guy here and it may, for once, actually happen.

Defensive Ends

7 Da’Quan Bowers DE Clemson

45 Brooks Reed DE Arizona

591 Marc Schiechl DE Colorado School of Mines

Analysis: Forget Bowers. Reed would disappoint me a great deal. Not that he’s a bad player, just that he’s not what they need. Schiechl is a lottery ticket.

Inside linebackers

Analysis: None? Interesting.

Outside linebackers

Analysis: None? Interesting.

Cornerbacks

99 Johnny Patrick CB Louisville

NL Prathon Wilkerson CB Albany State

Analysis: Patrick’s a talent, but I’m not sure they need him. Wilkerson is an interesting small school talent.

Safety

145 Jaiquawn Jarrett S Temple

Analysis: Undersized, but otherwise just what they need.

Bored

• What do Antonie Bethea, Clint Session and Pierre Garcon have in common? They were all compensatory draft picks. Too bad the Colts don’t have any this year.

• I have always hated the name “3-technique” because it’s misleading. It makes it sound as though it’s a skill set, not a position. In the Colts’ defense, both defensive tackles usually line up as “3-technique.” Rarely do you actually see anyone line up as a true nose tackle (or as modern terminology rather sadly puts it, “0-technique”). No matter what size or shape the Colts draft at defensive tackle, he will line up as a 3-technique.

• How does this guy sound? Starting left tackle at a big-time program who projects inside to guard. He runs 6054/324. Dashes? Ten in 1.82, twenty in 3.04 and forty in 5.31. He managed 28 reps, a 26.5 vertical, 7’10 long jump, 5.25 shuttle and 7.95 three-cone. Smart kid, graduated from top school in American studies. Draft him in a second, right? He’s already on the Colts roster. His name is Mike Tepper. He missed his senior season because a man trying to assault a young woman ran him over, dragged him 30 yards and broke his leg in four places. He’s all better now and could make some noise on a team with a pretty weak set of guards.

• Polian said he’s drafting as though all fourth-year free agents are unrestricted. That means he plans to go ahead without Joseph Addai, Melvin Bullitt, Antonio “Mookie” Johnson and Charlie Johnson. On paper, that’s four starters. Even with them, the Colts were looking at some big holes. Assuming the Colts can and will re-sign all of their free agents with three or fewer accrued seasons, this is what they would have (I have also included free agent Peyton Manning because without him, all bets are off and the team starts from Square One):

QB 18 Peyton Manning, 7 Curtis Painter

Analysis: Manning’s got a few years left and won’t be replaced this year unless the unthinkable happens; but Painter has been atrocious as a pro and needs replacing.

RB 31 Donald Brown, 42 Javarris James, 45 Devin Moore

Analysis: Ugh, Brown’s been a bust, James is a role player and Moore is a fragile return man who offers little from scrimmage.

FL 85 Pierre Garcon, 17 Austin Collie, 15 Blair White, 12 Chris Brooks

SE 87 Reggie Wayne, 11 Anthony Gonzalez, 10 Taj Smith, 13 Kole Heckendorf

Analysis: Some pretty good players here. Wayne probably needs a successor, but not right away.

TE 44 Dallas Clark, 84 Jacob Tamme

H-B 81 Brody Eldridge, 86 Rob Myers

Analysis: Solid, not the problem.

RT 71 Ryan Diem, 60 James Williams

LT 72 Jeff Linkenbach, 76 Joe Reitz

Analysis: Wow, the weakest part of the team – even weaker if, as many have predicted, they cut Diem.

RG 78 Mike Pollak, 73 Jaimie Thomas, 62 Mike Tepper

C 63 Jeff Saturday, 65 Jacques McClendon

LG 66 Kyle DeVan, 61 Jamey Richard, 77 Casey Bender

Analysis: Not quite as dire as the situation at tackle. Not quite.

RDE 93 Dwight Freeney, 92 Jerry Hughes

LDE 98 Robert Mathis, 68 Eric Foster, 97 John Chick

Analysis: Two top-notch starters and I think Hughes still has a big future.

RDT 90 Daniel Muir, 69 DeMario Pressley

LDT 95 Fili Moala, 91 Ricardo Mathews, 69 John Gill

Analysis: Moala surprised me by being decent, there’s not much else here, though, unless Pressley’s light finally switches on.

RLB 55 Clint Session, 53 Kavell Conner

MLB 58 Gary Brackett, 52 Cody Glenn

LLB 51 Pat Angerer, 50 Philip Wheeler, 54 Nate Triplett

Analysis: Solid with depth, move along.

RCB 25 Jerraud Powers, 27 Jacob Lacey, 39 Cornelius Brown, 36 Jordan Hemby

LCB 26 Kelvin Hayden, 20 Justin Tryon, 22 Kevin Thomas, 43 Terrence Johnson

Analysis: Surprisingly deep.

SS 23 Al Afalava, 38 Mike Newton, 30 David Caldwell

FS 41 Antoine Bethea, 49 Chip Vaughn, 37 Brandon King

Analysis: One great player and a bunch of maybes.

Another day, another mock

1/22 Derek Sherrod T Mississippi State

I love this kid and think the Colts should jump at the chance to draft him. A top pass blocker, a willing downfield blocker and a great guy.

2/53 DeMarco Murray HB Oklahoma State

The Colts need a halfback who is a threat to score from anywhere on the field. There are a number of good one’s available – like Kendall Hunter and Jacquizz Rodgers – but Murray offers better receiving and blocking skills and legitimate 4.37 speed. He’s also a solid citizen.

3/87 Da’Norris Searcy SS North Carolina

Over the years the Colts have relied on safeties to stuff the run and Searcy can protect the line of scrimmage with the best of them and has excellent coverage ability and hands. Despite not possessing great straight-line speed, Searcy has been a very successful kick and punt returner in college.

4/119 Ricky Stanzi QB Iowa

Great kid, the type coaches think they can turn into a star. Polian knows better, but will make the pick anyway, knowing that Stanzi is in all likelihood a career backup.

5/152 Willie Smith T East Carolina

Incredible, off the charts athleticism and ability, but just seems to play down to his competition. Has a chance to be a top-notch NFL starter. Don’t blame his work ethic, he’s nearly completed a second degree.

6/188 Frank Kearse DT Alabama A&M

Another top student/solid citizen-type, but this one is a huge blocker eater. He needs lots of refinement, but “Big Spoon” could get a chance to develop in Indy.

Some thoughts

• I’m sure it raised more than a few eyebrows when the Colts took long looks at quarterbacks Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick. While I like them both – and strongly recommend the Colts draft a backup-for-now-starter-for-later quarterback – I don’t see it happening. Both of those guys are crawling up draft boards and there’s even talk of Dalton squeezing into the bottom of the first round. I just don’t see Polian breaking his philosophy on this one, especially when the Colts have so many other needs.

In his stint as a GM, Polian had future Hall of Famer Jim Kelly fall into his lap. The Bills had drafted him in 1983 with the 14th pick in the draft. He lasted so long because of the threat of him bolting to the USFL. Actually, he did. And when that league folded, he was a gift for the Bills. Then he moved to expansion Carolina, and chose Kerry Collins with his first pick, the 5th in the draft. Of course, Collins is far from a Hall of Fame candidate, but he has had a respectable career and could have been far, far better if he had gotten his drinking and other habits under control earlier. So then Polian shows up in Indy and his first pick is Peyton Manning. See a pattern?

Still, Curtis Painter needs to start selling insurance soon.

• Linebackers? Who needs linebackers? If Gary Brackett comes back at full strength, the Colts have three starting-quality players on the outside in Clint Session, Kavell Conner and Pat Angerer. And, it looks like they’ll probably give Philip Wheeler another chance to stick. They also have special-teamer Cody Glenn and prospect Nate Triplett. I know Angerer is expected to replace Brackett eventually, but he’s pretty good player outside now.

• It’s Derek Sherrod or Tyron Smith in the first, I’m sure of it.