Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Reading Polian's Mind

Y’know, in spite of his reputation for trickery and deceit, Bill Polian usually gives none-too-subtle clues about who he’ll draft in the first round, or at least which position.

So if we look at what Polian has said about this draft:

1) He blamed the Super Bowl loss on the offensive line, and vowed to make it bigger and tougher. This is eerily reminiscent of what he said about the secondary after a playoff loss in 2004. Of course, in the 2005 draft he selected cornerbacks Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Hayden in the first and second rounds. So you would suppose that the top pick is a lock to be an offensive lineman, until …
2) When commenting on the depth of this draft, Polian pointed out that the linemen depth in this draft is so strong, it would allow the Colts to grab a skill-position player who had fallen below where he should be picked. So now, they won’t grab an offensive lineman?

The other way to tell what position he intends to draft is that he has a habit of clearing roster space for top picks, guys he thinks are locks to make the team. So here’s a position-by-position look at what the Colts have now:

Quarterbacks
Elite starter: Manning
Solid starter: None
Potential starter: None
Role-player/veteran reserve: None
Worthwhile prospects: Painter
Special teams/fringe prospects: Willy
Players lost: Sorgi
Summary: Whether or not the Colts draft a quarterback depends on a) how long they think Manning will last, and b) if they believe Painter is the answer at No. 2. I think Manning’s got five more seasons, and Polian’s history says he likes to grab starting QBs in the first half of the first round after the team bottoms out. So with that theory out, what about Painter? Like it or not, I think the Colts believe in him.
Polian factor: Avoids drafting QBs unless he has to.

Runningbacks
Elite starter: None
Solid starter: Addai
Potential starter: Brown
Role-player/veteran reserve: Hart, Simpson
Worthwhile prospects: None
Special teams/fringe prospects: Moore
Players lost: None
Summary: Even though I’m not completely sold on either Addai or Brown, I don’t think Polian would ever draft three first-round backs in five years.
Polian factor: Loves getting backs other people don’t like as much as he does.

Wide Receivers
Elite starter: Wayne
Solid starter: Gonzalez, Garcon, Collie
Potential starter: None
Role-player/veteran reserve: None
Worthwhile prospects: Smith, Giguere, Matthews, Guice
Special teams/fringe prospects: None
Players lost: Baskett
Summary: A dedicated return man could make sense here, but that’d prolly be a late-round thing. Adam Schefter says that coach Jim Caldwell is considering four-wide sets, which could open up a need for a No. 5 guy.
Polian factor: Stockpiles wideouts of all shapes and sizes.

Tight Ends
Elite starter: Clark
Solid starter: None
Potential starter: None
Role-player/veteran reserve: Robinson
Worthwhile prospects: Tamme, Santi, Cloherty, Petrowski
Special teams/fringe prospects: None
Players lost: None
Summary: It’s probably too early to replace Clark, but I’d like to see better prospects here than what they have. Robinson starts most games, but he’s not a “starter” in the sense most fans mean when they say it.
Polian factor: Prefers wide receivers pretending to be tight ends.

Tackles (assuming Charlie Johnson is not moved inside)
Elite starter: None
Solid starter: Diem
Potential starter: Johnson, Terry
Role-player/veteran reserve: None
Worthwhile prospects: Ugoh
Special teams/fringe prospects: Cadogan
Players lost: Federkeil, Toudouze
Summary: There’s not a lot of talent here. Diem is good, but nearing the end. Johnson is out of place at tackle, and Terry’s just too injury-prone. I’d like to see a first- or second-round pick here.
Polian factor: Tends to grab small-school prospects and hope they’ll get coached up.

Centers and Guards
Elite starter: Saturday
Solid starter: None
Potential starter: DeVan, Alleman
Role-player/veteran reserve: None
Worthwhile prospects: Pollak, Thomas, Richard
Special teams/fringe prospects: None
Players lost: Lilja
Summary: Saturday is still a top center, but also nearing the end of his career. DeVan surprised many in his first year as a starter, but is not a sure thing. Alleman has all the tools, but has yet to put them together. Pollak and Richard have seen some action, but have generally be found wanting; and Thomas is a projection. If the Colts don’t bring in a starting quality tackle (or Terry doesn’t step up), allowing them to shift Johnson back to his natural guard position, I’d like to see an early pick here. Even if that does happen, I’d still like to see some new blood here.
Polian factor: Tends to grab small-school prospects and hope they’ll get coached up. Prefers college centers to guards for both positions in the pros.

Defensive Ends
Elite starter: Freeney, Mathis
Solid starter: None
Potential starter: None
Role-player/veteran reserve: Dawson
Worthwhile prospects: Baldwin, Hardie, Chick
Special teams/fringe prospects: None
Players lost: Brock
Summary: There’s no emergency here, but Freeney and Mathis are both getting older and worn-down, and there’s no obvious replacement on the roster. They could go here in the first, but I’d rather they waited and gambled on a boom-or-bust guy. Actually, they’ve done that lots of times before and the only time it’s worked out has been Mathis.
Polian factor: Can’t get enough pass-rushers, tends to gamble on college production as opposed to size, Combine numbers.

Defensive Tackles
Elite starter: None
Solid starter: None
Potential starter: Muir, Johnson
Role-player/veteran reserve: Foster
Worthwhile prospects: Moala, Gill, King
Special teams/fringe prospects: None
Players lost: Johnson
Summary: Foster’s the best performer here by a wide margin, but would be best served playing fewer snaps. People are raving about Muir and Johnson, but they really looked no better than adequate. None of the prospects really excites me. There are two ways Polian could go on this, either: a) I just drafted two DTs in the second and fourth last year, or b) I expected Big Ed to start, Moala to contribute and Taylor to at least make the team. Unfortunately, I think he’ll stand mostly pat, lean on the top three and hope one of the prospects to pan out. They will most likely draft a DT, but probably late unless a real gem falls to them.
Polian factor: Drafts DTs only reluctantly, and then tends to admire speed and quickness over size and strength.

Outside Linebackers
Elite starter: None
Solid starter: Session
Potential starter: Wheeler
Role-player/veteran reserve: None
Worthwhile prospects: Glenn, Renkart
Special teams/fringe prospects: None
Players lost: Hagler
Summary: The Colts never seemed that comfortable starting Wheeler, and neither of the prospects are anywhere near starting. Expect one or two picks here.
Polian factor: Drafts them in great numbers, but rarely high.

Inside Linebackers
Elite starter: None
Solid starter: Brackett
Potential starter: None
Role-player/veteran reserve: None
Worthwhile prospects: Humber
Special teams/fringe prospects: None
Players lost: Keiaho
Summary: Brackett’s signed for a while, and Humber has some talent, but his services may be required outside. If the Colts draft a middle linebacker, he’ll probably also be able to play outside as well.
Polian factor: Drafts them rarely.

Cornerbacks
Elite starter: None
Solid starter: Hayden, Powers
Potential starter: Lacey
Role-player/veteran reserve: None
Worthwhile prospects: None
Special teams/fringe prospects: Lambert
Players lost: Jackson, Jennings, Rushing
Summary: The top three are fine, but that’s what they are – three. The Colts usually go into a season with five NFL-quality CBs if they can. Look for them to draft at least one, probably early. Polian factor: To Polian, happiness is a new cornerback; he drafts them in droves.

Safeties
Elite starter: Bethea
Solid starter: None
Potential starter: Sanders, Bullitt
Role-player/veteran reserve: Silva
Worthwhile prospects: None
Special teams/fringe prospects: None
Players lost: Francisco
Summary: This is a position that looks like a pillar of strength, but it has its problems. Bethea is on a one-year tender, Sanders played just 75 snaps in 2009 because of one of his inevitable injuries and Bullitt was exposed in coverage often last season. Silva’s not a threat for too much playing time of defense. Getting a young prospect would really help here.
Polian factor: Can and will draft these guys anywhere.

So in conclusion, I have this to say: Your guess is as good as mine. Here's an updated list of the Colts picks to get you started:

1/31
2/63
3/94
4/129
5/162
7/238
7/240
7/246

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