Two things to think about

1. The truth about draft guides

Although they are fun and useful sources of information, don't put too much trust in draft books, especially when it comes to which round a prospect should be selected in. If I hear one more person indignantly say something along the lines of "we could have had him in the third round!" I will go nuts. Case in point: I can't find it right now, but I have a draft guide kicking around somewhere that recommended Dwight Freeney be drafted in the fourth round.

Let's look at the players the Colts have "reached for" (according to the experts) recently:

2007: Tony Ugoh, Roy Hall, Clint Session
2006: Freddie Keiaho
2005: Kelvin Hayden, Sweet Pea Burns, Matt Giordano, Tyjuan Hagler
2004: Bob Sanders, Gilbert Gardner, Jake Scott
2003: Dallas Clark, Robert Mathis, Cato June
2002: Dwight Freeney, Joseph Jefferson, David Thornton, Josh Mallard

A few wrong notes in there, but a pretty good group. Far better, certainly, than those vaunted talents who "fell to" to Colts on draft day in the same era:

2005: Jonathan Welsh, Robert Hunt, Anthony Davis
2004: Kendyll Pope
2003: Mike Doss, Steve Sciullo

The same is true of undrafted free agents. Remember the outrage last season when the Colts drafted Session when KaMichael Hall was available? The draft books said Hall was a third or fourth rounder, while few even mentioned Session. The Colts eventually signed Hall as an undrafted free agent, but he was cut before the season started. The same thing happened the year earlier with Dale Robinson. (1)

The truth is that they don't know. Most of the books are written and laid-out before the combine (let alone pro days) and some even before the post-season games. (2) And they are put together by guys at a media source, not a NFL team. They won't lose their jobs if they're wrong, even if they are consistently wrong.

2. Compensatory picks

A far more noted blogger than I, the great AdamJT13, has been projecting compensatory picks for years with uncanny accuracy. This year, he says the Colts will receive three sixes and a seven. Not terrible, but not what I expected, either.

If his prediction comes true, and it usually does, the Colts picks will look like this:

One 2nd,
one 3rd,
one 4th,
one 5th,
four 6ths,
and two 7ths

Considering the Colts' ability to score with late-round picks, it should be an interesting second day.

Note:
1. Before you bring up Ben Utecht, keep in mind it was a devastating injury that knocked him out of the draft — and he went straight from college to the IR, missing an entire season. And you don't want me to bring up George Achica. Or E.G. Green, Aaron Taylor or dozens of others.
2. The better ones plug in a few post-combine stories and numbers, though.