Signings

To be perfectly clear, the Colts signed WR Dudley Guice Jr. to a future contract. As soon as the regular season ends, teams are allowed to sign players to contracts that begin after the season. Playoff teams are not supposed to announce them because they still have active rosters.

While the rest of the Colts’ signings are still unknown to me, I have seen a few former Colts sign to other (non-playoff teams). Here’s a rundown:

C Steve Justice (Panthers): Justice is technically sound, but not all that strong. He would have to work hard to make the team.
HB Lance Ball (Broncos): Nobody denies Ball’s ability to grind out yards between the tackles, but he’s not speedy, a polished receiver or much of a blocker. The Broncos are famous for getting the most out of their backs, so it should be interesting to see what happens.
DT Terrance Taylor (Lions): A total washout with the Colts, Taylor went back home to Michigan. The Lions are desperate for depth at the position, and Taylor could turn out to be a decent part-time player for them.

Also, CB Keiwan Ratliff was signed by the Bengals to an active contract for the playoffs.

Here’s a pre-draft video that scouts Guice.

Better Late than Never

I had just put the kids to bed and was waiting for my wife to come home from work when I went on Facebook. Immediately, an instant chat came up. It was from Dudley Guice Jr., a wide receiver who had been with the Titans and the Blue Bombers of the CFL.

He pointed out we hadn’t talked in a while and asked how I was doing. I told him I was good, my latest book was selling well and that I had two more coming this year. Then I asked how he was doing. And he told me he had just signed a three-year deal with the Colts.

How I got to know Guice is sort of interesting. His was one of many names that came up when the Colts were working out draft-eligible players last year. I vaguely remembered seeing him at the Texas vs. The Nation Game – an exhibition bowl for small-school players that also featured future Colts Curtis Painter, Drew Willy, John Matthews and Adrian Grady. In that game, he was thrown to six times, and caught five for 70 yards and a touchdown. But what really stood out was his size – he looked much bigger than the other wideouts and the defensive backs covering him.

So I looked at his stats, his bio and what video I could get my hands on. He was very productive at Northwestern State in Louisiana as a receiver, runner and return man. Nobody had anything but good to say about him. He graduated Magna Cum Laude with a 3.60 GPA and started taking classes towards his master’s degree. He had even turned down an internship with the FBI to play ball. His pro day numbers were off the chart. He measured in at 6024/209. He ran 1.49 (10), 2.58 (20) and 4.40 (40). He benched 12 times, leapt 39.0 inches up and 10’5 across. The shuttle took him 4.01 and the cone drill 6.61. Oh, and he did a ton of charity work, especially after Hurricane Katrina ripped up the South.

So I got in touch with him. Turned out he was a great guy. I interviewed him for my on-again, off-again blog and made him a Facebook friend.

He didn’t get drafted, but signed with the Titans. As is typical of NFL teams with a weak spot – as with Tennessee’s wide receivers – they brought in a million guys in to compete for few spots. Guice was cut. Rather than stay on a practice squad, he signed with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers of the CFL. It was too late in their season for him to make much of a splash (6-76-0 receiving with different rules and a different ball). But it was interesting to see him deal with the Winnipeg winter – he is originally from Mississippi and Winnipeg is north of North Dakota.

So we stayed in touch, and yesterday he told me he was finally – as I predicted long ago – a Colt. It’s hard to say what exactly his potential is, but I can say the Colts have done great things with lesser players. He’s still raw, but definitely has the tools and is a quick learner. I see him opening camp next year as a back-up on the outside.

College stats
2008: 35-606-5 receiving (missed three of 12 games due to injury)
2007: 28-430-4 receiving, 11-84-2 rushing, 11-182-0 kick returns
2006: 14-138-2 receiving
2005: 1-39-0 receiving

Breaking News!

I was on Facebook and saw a blip on chat. It was Dudley Guice Jr., who told me he had just signed a three-year deal with the Colts.

All-Rookie Team

Okay, here’s where I’d normally review/preview, but I’m not sure the Buffalo game is worth reviewing and I’m still not sure who to preview. So, while looking around at my Pro Bowl post, I thought I’d lovingly slap together an all-rookie team. There are some cheats – like guys on IR – but they aren’t really going to play anyone anyway.

QB: Mark Sanchez, Jets
This was difficult. All three first rounders -- Detroit’s Matt Stafford, Sanchez and Tampa’s Josh Freeman – played, and all had similar results. Their NFL passer rating ranged from 59.9 to 63.0. At one point in the season, I would have given the award to Freeman, who added a much needed spark to his team. And I still believe Stafford will be the best of the lot in the long run. But it’s impossible to ignore the fact that Sanchez brought his team to the playoffs. Colts: Curtis Painter played. That’s all the good I can say.

FB: Tyrell Sutton, Panthers
I really wanted the Colts to draft this guy, but they didn’t. A productive college halfback who lacked footspeed, the Panthers (who already had beloved veteran Brad Hoover and draft pick Tony Flammetta) gave him a shot at fullback. And he outplayed them both. Colts: Does not compute.

HB: Beanie Wells, Cardinals
Denver’s Knowshon Moreno had more rushing yards, but Wells ran better and with far more authority. Wells has fumble issues (but so does Moreno) and can’t block at all, but is a better receiver. Colts: Top pick Donald Brown suffered through an injury-plagued season, but showed promise.

WR: Percy Harvin, Vikings
WR: Austin Collie, Colts
There are some great receivers this year, but these two stand out. Harvin can score from anywhere, and Collie is tough and has outstanding hands. Other options include the Eagles’ Jeremy Maclin, the 49ers’ Micheal Crabtree, the Giants’ Hakeem Nicks and the Titans’ Kenny Britt. Colts: Collie.

TE: Brandon Pettigrew, Lions
Pettigrew was not just the best receiver of the lot – and in a very difficult situation – but also the only one who blocked at all. And he blocked quite well. Colts: None played.

LT: Sebastian Vollmer, Patriots
RT: Michael Oher, Ravens
Say what you will Colts fans, this Vollmer kid didn’t just exceed expectations, he looked like a very experienced and talented veteran. In 11 starts he had four penalties and allowed no sacks. Sure he had help – they all do. And Oher deserved the hype. While he had some problems with speed rushers, he was never bullied and was a load in the running game. Minnesota’s Phil Loadholt played well in pass pro, not so much on run plays. Colts: None played.

LG: Eric Wood, Bills
RG: Louis Vasquez, Chargers
Wood was the best player on a very bad line. Vasquez wasn’t great, but held up well, and has a great future. Colts: Kyle DeVan was a pretty good starter, but doesn’t officially count as a rookie.

C: Alex Mack, Browns
He started poorly, but by the end of the season he was one of the best centers in the league. Colts: None played.

RDE: Michael Johnson, Bengals
LDE: Matt Shaughnessy, Raiders
He only started twice, but Shaughnessy played well against both the run and the pass when he had a chance. And he improved as the season went along. Johnson didn’t play particularly well, but was slightly better than the next-best rook, Seattle’s Everette Brown. Colts: None played.

RDT: Terrance Knighton, Jaguars
LDT: Roy Miller, Buccanners
Knighton adds just about nothing to the pass rush, but is a beast against the run. Miller gets the nod over New England’s Myron Pryor, though neither was special. Colts: Second-round pick Fili Moala played sparingly and poorly. Fourth-rounder Terrance Taylor was cut in camp and not signed to the practice squad.

ROLB: Clay Matthews, Packers
LOLB: Brian Cushing, Texans
No question here. Both of these players were outstanding. Colts: Ramon Humber played decently, but better inside.

MLB: James Laurinaitis, Rams
Laurinaitis wasn’t as impressive as the outside duo, but he held his own on a terrible, terrible team and showed flashes of future greatness. Colts: Humber played okay, but did not look like a future starter.

RCB: Jerraud Powers, Colts
LCB: Vontae Davis, Dolphins
Powers was a major surprise after starters Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Hayden went down. Davis was run out there because the Dolphins lacked other options. Aside from the penalties, he did pretty well. Colts: Besides Powers, Jacob Lacey started eight games and almost knocked Davis off my team.

SS: Louis Delmas, Lions
FS: Jairus Byrd, Bills
Byrd was not great overall, but nine picks says he makes it. Delmas played better. Neither is a strong safety though. If I had to pick a real strong safety, it would have been Oakland’s Michael Mitchell – who played well in limited exposure – or Chicago’s Al Afalava –who played a lot, but not all that well. Colts: A guy named De’Von Hall played a few snaps, but was cut.

K: Ryan Succop, Chiefs
Hard to argue with 22 of 25 on field goals. Colts: None played.

P: Pat McAfee, Colts
This kid was an outstanding punter, a top-notch kickoff man and a flawless holder. Colts: McAfee.

KR: Percy Harvin, Vikings
Harvin deserves it, but you gotta like Arizona’s LaRod Stephens-Howling a lot too. Colts: Sam Giguere took the reins in the final game and did okay in the snow. He could get a chance to win the spot in next year’s camp. But like DeVan, he does not actually qualify as a rookie.

PR: Quan Crosby, Bengals
He had a great average, but his two fumbles scared me a bit. Colts: None played.

Manning and the ol' 3-4

It won’t go away. That old bugaboo about how Peyton Manning can’t succeed against 3-4 defenses. I thought I spoke to that definitively last year, but still it persists. It’s actually ridiculous when you consider how little difference their actually is between 3-4 and 4-3 defenses. Anyway, let’s look at the stats:

Game 1 Jacksonville 3-4
Total: 38-28-301-1-1 (1) 94.3
Blitzed: 11-7-71-0-0 (1) 82.0

Game 2 Miami 3-4
Total: 23-14-303-2-0 (1) 133.9
Blitz: 7-4-76-1-0 (1) 134.5

Game 3 Arizona 3-4
Total: 35-24-394-4-1 (0) 132.3
Blitz: 8-5-72-0-1 (0) 52.1

Game 4 Seattle 4-3
Total: 41-31-353-2-1 (0) 107.1
Blitz: 12-7-96-1-0 (0) 111.8

Game 5 Tennessee 4-3
Total: 44-36-309-3-1 (0) 109.2
Blitz: 0-0-0-0-0 (0) n/a

Game 6 St. Louis 4-3
Total: 34-23-235-3-0 (0) 116.7
Blitz: 9-5-46-0-0 (0) 69.7

Game 7 San Francisco 3-4
Total: 48-31-347-0-0 (3) 86.0
Blitz: 21-16-188-0-0 (1) 102.9

Game 8 Houston 4-3
Total: 50-34-318-1-1 (2) 83.6
Blitz: 11-7-76-0-1 (0) 46.0

Game 9 New England 3-4
Total: 44-28-327-4-2 (1) 97.4
Blitz: 7-5-64-0-0 (1) 99.7

Game 10 Baltimore 3-4
Total: 31-22-302-1-2 (0) 85.7
Blitz: 11-9-154-0-1 (0) 80.9

Game 11 Houston 4-3
Total: 35-27-244-3-2 (2) 100.2
Blitz: 3-3-21-2-0 (0) 135.4

Game 12 Tennessee 4-3
Total: 37-24-270-1-0 (0) 95.6
Blitz: 2-1-11-0-0 (0) 66.7

Game 13 Denver 3-4
Total: 42-20-220-4-3 (0) 65.6
Blitz: 13-8-104-1-1 (0) 80.3

Game 14 Jacksonville 3-4
Total: 30-23-308-4-1 (0) 134.4
Blitz: 11-8-150-1-0 (0) 145.1

Game 15 Jets 4-3
Total: 21-14-192-0-0 (0) 95.7
Blitz: 12-7-92-0-0 (0) 82.6

And I’m not including the Buffalo game because: a) I don’t have the metrics yet, b) it was played in a foot of snow and c) Manning didn’t really give a real Manning effort (we’ll talk about that later).

So what have we found out:

1. In a game-by-game basis (I won’t do it weighted, because then I would have to weight which defences Manning faced on a play-by-play basis – I love you guys, but not that much), Manning averaged a 103.7 NFL passer rating against 3-4 teams and 101.2 against 4-3 teams. Basically an inconsequential difference.
2. Although Manning had his worst game against a 3-4 team (65.6 rating against Denver), he had his best games against them too. In fact, his highest rating against a 4-3 team was just 116.7, but he had three games of 132.3 or higher against 3-4 teams.
3. Although it varies from game to game, blitzing has proven neither to be very effective or very foolhardy against him
4. If you look at the play-by-play metrics, you can see that no team (not even the Colts) rely solely on one defensive formation, and most of the so-called 3-4 teams play with four, five or even two defensive linemen just as often as three.

I just hope this sort of talk comes to an end soon.

At Least Ervin Baldwin and John Gill are Still Healthy

Using the Colts own depth chart from colts.com (which is notoriously inaccurate), and the official NFL injury report, ColtPlay will give you an idea of who will play and who won’t tomorrow. I have removed the players who definitely won’t play, have grayed out the guys who are questionable and kinda grayed out the guys who are probable.

WR Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie
LT Charlie Johnson, Tony Ugoh
LG Ryan Lilja, Jamey Richard
C Jeff Saturday
RG Kyle DeVan, Mike Pollak
RT Michael Toudouze
TE Dallas Clark, Colin Cloherty
WR Pierre Garcon, Hank Baskett, Sam Giguere
QB Peyton Manning, Curtis Painter
RB Joseph Addai, Donald Brown, Mike Hart
FB/H-B Jacob Tamme

LE Robert Mathis, Keyunta Dawson, Ervin Baldwin
LT Eric Foster, John Gill
RT Daniel Muir, Fili Moala
RE Dwight Freeney, Raheem Brock
LLB Philip Wheeler, Cody Glenn
MLB Gary Brackett, Freddy Keiaho
RLB Ramon Humber
LCB Kelvin Hayden, Jacob Lacey, T.J. Rushing
RCB Tim Jennings
SS Melvin Bullitt, Jamie Silva
FS Antoine Bethea, Aaron Francisco

P Pat McAfee
K Matt Stover
H Pat McAfee
PR T.J. Rushing, Pierre Garcon
KR T.J. Rushing, Austin Collie
PC Justin Snow, Jacob Tamme
LS Justin Snow, Jacob Tamme

Review/Preview

REVIEW

A lot has been made of the decision to pull Peyton Manning for Curtis Painter, including here. So let’s look at who else played, and/or was rested in that period instead.

For all 17 of Painter’s offensive plays, the entire starting offensive line was out there with him. The wide receivers were Austin Collie and Hank Baskett for every play. They played two tight ends for 16 of the 17 plays. Gijon Robinson was there for the first seven, blocking once and being pulled for the fourth quarter. Jacob Tamme came in with 1:22 left in the third, and played the rest of the way. In his 13 snaps, he lined up as a tight end once, and in the slot 12 times. Tom Santi came out when Tamme went in and – one three-and-out series later – came back in to replace Robinson. While playing with Painter, he saw 12 snaps at tight end (staying in to “block” twice), and one in the slot. Donald Brown was the halfback on every one of Painter’s plays, spending nine of his 17 plays as a pass-blocker. Chad Simpson joined him once on 3rd-and-4 in a split-back set.

We’ve already discussed how tragic Painter was, so let’s move on. Halfback Joseph Addai looked magnificent on his 21-yard touchdown run, squirting through a tiny hole, accelerating past the defenders and finally muscling his way into the end zone. It was a highlight worthy of great praise. He didn’t do much other than that, but I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt because a halfback needs to develop a rhythm and Addai only played 16 plays, all in the first half (including one where he went into motion, ending up split wide left).

His replacement, rookie Donald Brown, didn’t put up great numbers on his first game back from injury, but looked smart and creative. The Jets stacked the line when Painter was in there and blitzed like mad, so that kind of hurt Brown’s chances. The knock against Brown was supposed to be as a pass-protector, but I thought he did a great job in the face of frequent blitzes.

Of the receivers, Reggie Wayne started and had his hands full with the Jets’ awesome corner Darrelle Revis. But Reggie will always find a way, catching 3-33-0 before leaving the game prior to the Painter era. Collie put in another great performance with 6-94-0 (on seven throws to him), finding great success against veteran Lito Sheppard. Collie started at injured Pierre Garcon’s spot outside and seemed just as comfortable there as he does in the slot. Baskett came in to replace Wayne and caught both passes thrown his way (one from each quarterback) for 16 yards, but seemed to have a hard time getting open. None of the receivers looked good as blockers.

As mentioned, a number of players appeared at tight end. Dallas Clark was having a typical day for him – 4-57-0 of seven passes thrown his way with one drop – before he was pulled for the Painter crew. The others did little as receivers – combining for 2-24-0 on eight throws with one drop – but a good deal of that can be attributed to Painter. Tamme, in particular, looked bad. None were much help as run blockers, and Santi (one sack allowed in two pass blocking opportunities) and Robinson (three pressures allowed in 15 pass blocking opportunities) were liabilities in protecting the passers.

The starting line – with Tony Ugoh filling in for the injured Charlie Johnson at left tackle – played the entire game and were … pretty good. The Jets are extremely hard to run against, and the Colts line did little to change that. But all of them did a nice job in pass-pro, even though Painter’s pocket presence made their job a lot more difficult than they’re used to. Ugoh, in particular, looked very good. What little pass rush the Jets managed came from blitzes. The two sacks came when Santi was handled by Calvin Pace and when Donald Strickland came on a delayed blitz untouched and unnoticed by Painter who was holding the ball for a luxurious amount of time.

Oh, and this week’s winner of fullback roulette? Eric Foster, with two plays.

As many backups played on offense, even more showed up on defense. For most of the fourth quarter, the defensive line was (from left to right): Eric Foster, Fili Moala, John Gill and Ervin Baldwin. Dwight Freeney was in for one fourth-quarter play (a 3rd-and-10). The linebackers were (from left to right) Philip Wheeler, Freddie Keiaho and Ramon Humber. Wheeler’s the normal starter and Humber started for injured Clint Session, while Keiaho subbed for starter Gary Brackett, who was taken out like Manning, Clark, Wayne and Addai. The secondary generally consisted of starters Kelvin Hayden and Jacob Lacey (in for injured Jerraud Powers), but the safeties were Aaron Francisco (who started the game for injured starter Melvin Bullitt) and Jamie Silva, who came in when Antoine Bethea was brought in for a rest.

Despite the parade of so-so players, the Colts defense played fairly well. In fact, of the Jets’ three touchdowns, one was scored against the offense and one against special teams.

Aside from Freeney, who had two sacks on just nine pass rushes, the Colts didn’t pressure Sanchez much. Foster and Raheem Brock – who started at left end for injured Robert Mathis, and played his best game this year – got close sometimes, but no other Colt added much. Jets left guard Alan Faneca – who I dissed in a previous post – handled Colts tackle Daniel Muir quite well. Foster and Antonio “Mookie” Johnson stood fairly strong against the run, but none of the other D-linemen did anything of merit. Moala looked awful; he was pushed off the ball by Jets guard Brandon Moore with annoying consistently. It’s still far too early to call Moala a bust, but the early results do not look pretty at all.

Humber played the whole game, and looked a little overmatched, but not terrible. I still say he’s much better off inside. Middle starter Brackett was very good, especially in coverage, and his replacement, Keiaho, didn’t embarrass himself. Wheeler did not look good, but I’m getting used to that.

The Colts’ corners played their usual game, leaving a fairly big cushion and closing in after the ball has been thrown. Hayden looked rusty, allowing a number of short completions to Jerricho Cotchery. It was heartbreaking to see the refs negate his first-quarter interception with an iffy illegal contact penalty. Lacey was mostly matched against Braylon Edwards, and – despite having a hard time with big wideouts and giving up five inches and 38 pounds – did an okay job. Similarly, Jennings looked good in coverage, with a nice swat on a Sanchez pass to Edwards on 3rd-and-4.

I’m surprised the Jets didn’t target Francisco and Silva more than they did. Francisco – who has been a disaster in coverage for a few seasons now – was not a problem last Sunday. Silva and Bethea were non-factors in coverage, but Silva looked quite good against the run.

Pat McAfee wowed me again both as a kickoff man and a punter (though he owes a small debt to Jennings for a nice punt downing at the Jets’ 5). It was nice to see Adam Vinatieri return, and he didn’t look rusty.

Chad Simpson had another good day as a kick returner, but TJ Rushing did nothing as a punt returner.

The Colts looked awful on kick coverage. On Brad Smith’s 106-yard score, Humber and Robinson were totally burned. Jennings showed great speed and effort getting to him at the 5 from the other side of the field, but also showed he took the wrong angle. And basically the same group allowed Cotchery 2-28 on punt returns.

PREVIEW

The Bills are a pretty bad team, worse than their 5-10 record would indicate. Not only were they a no better than average team heading into the season, but they actually have 19 players on injured reserve, including nine starters and one of their two Pro Bowlers. But depending on which Colts team is on the field, the Bills could actually eke out a win.

Bills fans were whining about quarterback Trent Edwards. But when he went down and career backup Ryan Fitzpatrick took over, they were no better. And now they are down to Brian Brohm. Whut oh.

But it’s not the passers’ fault, or the receivers’, or the backs’. It’s the line. Before the season, the Bills tried to overhaul their O-line (cutting a lot of salary), and it backfired. The best of the new lot – starting right tackle Brad Badger – was out for the season after a week 2 injury. He was replaced by journeyman Kirk Chambers, who has been terrible. The situation is worse on the left side where Demetrious Bell – though a great guy – was just not up to snuff. In eight starts, he gave up 5 sacks, 7 QB hits and 18 pressures to go along with 12 penalties – and he was precious little better as a run blocker. After a season-ending injury, he was replaced by former Lions reserve – Lions reserve! – Jonathan Scott. In 10 games (eight starts, including two at right tackle), he’s allowed 7 sacks, 1 hit and 13 pressures with six penalties and no discernable push in the run game. Things are just about as bad at guard. The plan was to start rookies Andy Levitre and Erik Wood. Although both will be good NFL players, both have been overmatched as NFL starters. Well, Wood was okay until he got hurt, and Levitre is passable in pass-pro, but an atrocity in the run game. Interestingly, he started two emergency games at left tackle and did okay. With Wood out, the Bills turned to ancient Kendall Simmons then gave the job to Richie Incognito. You know him, he was cut by the Rams – the Rams! – for being a butthead. At least only one guy, Geoff Hangartner, has played center for the Bills this year. And he’s been awful.

Buffalo has talented but not-all-that-productive-at-least-this-year ends in Aaron Schobel, Chris Kelsay and Ryan Denney. First-round draft pick Aaron Maybin is also there, but hasn’t done anything yet. Inside, highly paid Marcus Stroud has been awful and meagerly paid Kyle Williams has been very, very good.

Despite an inconsistent D-line and a depressing offense, middle linebacker Paul Posluszny has put in a Pro Bowl-quality season. Opening day starters on the outside, Keith Ellison and Kawika Mitchell, are both on injured reserve. Their replacements – converted safety Bryan Scott and ancient Chris Draft – have actually played decently in their absence.

Injuries have decimated the secondary too, as starting corners Terrence McGee and Leodis McKelvin were recently joined on injured reserve by Pro Bowl rookie safety Jairus Byrd. The current corners – Drayton Florence, Reggie Corner and Ashton Youboty – aren’t really very good. Strong safety George Wilson has been very solid. Byrd’s replacement, Donte Whitner has been okay in coverage, but a non-factor against the run and has had problems with penalties.

The Bills special teams are pretty good, with Roscoe Parrish a home run threat as a returner.

In a normal situation, the Colts would steamroll these guys. But if Painter is behind center, throwing to Tamme, all bets are off.

NEWS

There was some juggling, but the upshot is that with Anthony Gonzalez on injured reserve, Sam Giguere was promoted to the active roster and safety/linebacker De’Von Hall was cut. Quarterback Drew Willy was sent back to the practice squad and John Matthews took Giguere’s spot. I know Giguere is a great athlete, but I don’t know that he’s a great talent. Should be interesting to see how much playing time he gets this week.

The one new face on the practice squad is linebacker Brandon Renkart (6026/236/4.59pd). A high school quarterback at Piscataway, N.J., he stayed in state and played at Brackett’s old spot for Rutgers. Considered undersized and not explosive, Renkart is smart and tough and had a knack for big plays in college. Undrafted in 2008, he signed with the local Jets, but was cut. He spent some time on Arizona’s practice squad and is now in what appears to be a more appropriate situation in Indy. Does he have a future? I don’t know. The Colts have done more with less, so he at least bears watching.