It won’t go away. That old bugaboo about how Peyton Manning can’t succeed against 3-4 defenses. I thought I spoke to that definitively last year, but still it persists. It’s actually ridiculous when you consider how little difference their actually is between 3-4 and 4-3 defenses. Anyway, let’s look at the stats:
Game 1 Jacksonville 3-4
Total: 38-28-301-1-1 (1) 94.3
Blitzed: 11-7-71-0-0 (1) 82.0
Game 2 Miami 3-4
Total: 23-14-303-2-0 (1) 133.9
Blitz: 7-4-76-1-0 (1) 134.5
Game 3 Arizona 3-4
Total: 35-24-394-4-1 (0) 132.3
Blitz: 8-5-72-0-1 (0) 52.1
Game 4 Seattle 4-3
Total: 41-31-353-2-1 (0) 107.1
Blitz: 12-7-96-1-0 (0) 111.8
Game 5 Tennessee 4-3
Total: 44-36-309-3-1 (0) 109.2
Blitz: 0-0-0-0-0 (0) n/a
Game 6 St. Louis 4-3
Total: 34-23-235-3-0 (0) 116.7
Blitz: 9-5-46-0-0 (0) 69.7
Game 7 San Francisco 3-4
Total: 48-31-347-0-0 (3) 86.0
Blitz: 21-16-188-0-0 (1) 102.9
Game 8 Houston 4-3
Total: 50-34-318-1-1 (2) 83.6
Blitz: 11-7-76-0-1 (0) 46.0
Game 9 New England 3-4
Total: 44-28-327-4-2 (1) 97.4
Blitz: 7-5-64-0-0 (1) 99.7
Game 10 Baltimore 3-4
Total: 31-22-302-1-2 (0) 85.7
Blitz: 11-9-154-0-1 (0) 80.9
Game 11 Houston 4-3
Total: 35-27-244-3-2 (2) 100.2
Blitz: 3-3-21-2-0 (0) 135.4
Game 12 Tennessee 4-3
Total: 37-24-270-1-0 (0) 95.6
Blitz: 2-1-11-0-0 (0) 66.7
Game 13 Denver 3-4
Total: 42-20-220-4-3 (0) 65.6
Blitz: 13-8-104-1-1 (0) 80.3
Game 14 Jacksonville 3-4
Total: 30-23-308-4-1 (0) 134.4
Blitz: 11-8-150-1-0 (0) 145.1
Game 15 Jets 4-3
Total: 21-14-192-0-0 (0) 95.7
Blitz: 12-7-92-0-0 (0) 82.6
And I’m not including the Buffalo game because: a) I don’t have the metrics yet, b) it was played in a foot of snow and c) Manning didn’t really give a real Manning effort (we’ll talk about that later).
So what have we found out:
1. In a game-by-game basis (I won’t do it weighted, because then I would have to weight which defences Manning faced on a play-by-play basis – I love you guys, but not that much), Manning averaged a 103.7 NFL passer rating against 3-4 teams and 101.2 against 4-3 teams. Basically an inconsequential difference.
2. Although Manning had his worst game against a 3-4 team (65.6 rating against Denver), he had his best games against them too. In fact, his highest rating against a 4-3 team was just 116.7, but he had three games of 132.3 or higher against 3-4 teams.
3. Although it varies from game to game, blitzing has proven neither to be very effective or very foolhardy against him
4. If you look at the play-by-play metrics, you can see that no team (not even the Colts) rely solely on one defensive formation, and most of the so-called 3-4 teams play with four, five or even two defensive linemen just as often as three.
I just hope this sort of talk comes to an end soon.
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