Now that the offseason has unexpectedly arrived, I thought it was time to dust off Coltplay and start filing again. Some thoughts:
• In his post-game comments, Bill Polian frequently commented about what an excellent job the Colts defense (especially pass defense) did against the Chargers. That tells me that the first-round draft pick will almost certainly be on offense.
• And it is unlikely to be a guard or center. Polian stressed how well Mike Pollak and Jamey Richard played all year and indicated that the only problems they had came from a lack of familiarity with the league and their teammates. Even if Jeff Saturday is allowed to leave as a free agent (why do you think they drafted three centers last year?), they team will have Pollak, Richard, Charlie Johnson and, after he returns from an injury that cost him the entire 2008 season, Ryan Lilja. That’s four starting-quality players for three spots. Fellow 2008 draft pick Steve Justice will also be in the mix, as will Dan Federkiel, although to a lesser extent. The arrow is pointed up on both Pollak and Richard, with Richard in particular showing he has a bright NFL future. There may well be an interior lineman selected by the Colts in 2009, but almost certainly not on the first day.
• The top pick could be a back. Polian cursed the lack of production from the running game (as well he should have, it was terrible all year) and even called Joseph Addai out by name. Perhaps more telling is that on 3rd-and-1 at the San Diego 38 with the game tied in the second quarter, the Colts chose to run a reverse with tight end Dallas Clark rather than trust one of their halfbacks. So if Addai isn’t the answer, who is? Polian loves Dominic Rhodes, but he played no better than Addai this season, is an old 30 and is also an unrestricted free agent. Colts fans love Mike Hart, but he was slow before he tore his ACL this year. No matter how well he rehabs, I don’t think it would be wise to depend on him at this point. The other backs on the roster are really spare parts.
• Or it could be a receiver. As is common knowledge, Marvin Harrison is nearing the end of his career and is scheduled to make $13.4 million next season. That’s a ridiculous amount of money for a player unlikely to retain a starting position. If he were to retire or otherwise leave the team, there would be just two reliable receivers — Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez — on the roster. Past history has indicated that the Colts philosophy has been to give Peyton Manning as many weapons as possible, so a first-day pick at this position could be looming.
• Other draft priorities? Offensive tackle, as Ryan Diem makes a lot of money and has been declining, while Tony Ugoh is talented but gives an inconsistent effort. Charlie Johnson can play there in a pinch, but they need a big, young guy to develop. Defensive tackle because we all saw how undersized and undertalented the team was at that spot last season. Cornerbacks because neither Dante Hughes nor Michael Coe looks like he has much of a future, and the Colts always draft corners. A dedicated return man would be nice, as will be the usual long-range linebacker prospects and marginally size pass rushers.
• Barring something truly unforeseen, I’m sure Antonio Johnson has sewn up a starting spot on next year’s team.
• Of the Colts’ unrestricted free agents, here are my early predictions (with their percent chance of leaving):
Matt Giordano (90) They won’t pay to keep their No. 4 safety
Tyjuan Hagler (90) Ty’s a good player, but there are no starting spots open, and the Colts consider outside linebackers disposable
Kelvin Hayden (10) They will pay to keep their best corner, and he is a Polian favorite
Keiwan Ratliff (35) He’s a guy you always want to replace, but he stepped up in 2008 when others faltered
Darrell Reid (20) Offers little at DT, but is a special-teams dynamo and a fan favorite
Dominic Rhodes (50) Polian loves him, but he’s about done
Jeff Saturday (75) His replacements are in house and he’ll get big offers elsewhere, but losing him would still be a big blow
Hunter Smith (20) This could be the end of Hunter the Punter as some say, but I doubt it — he’s too valuable as a holder
Josh Thomas (50) Here’s another guy they keep trying to replace, but he keep playing better than his would-be successors
• The Colts have neither gained nor lost any draft picks this year due to trades. Supplemental picks may be few and far between as the only significant free agents the Colts lost last year were Jake Scott and Ben Utecht . I'm thinking a fouth and a sixth.
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
Preseason follies
A little late, but here are Coltplay’s observations on the Hall of Fame Game.
In a nutshell: The Redskins’ second stringers are better than the Colts’ fourth stringers.
Quarterbacks
18 Peyton Manning QB
0 games/0 start,
12 Jim Sorgi QB
1 game/1 start, 10-7-66-0-0 passing, 1/6 sacked
5 Quinn Gray QB
1 game/0 start, 2-11-0 rushing, 19-10-160-1-0 pass
13 Jared Lorenzen QB
1 game/0 start, 1-9-0 rushing, 21-12-93-0-1 passing, 2/16 sacked
• Gray clearly outplayed Sorgi — who still holds onto the ball too long and seems afraid to throw past the line of scrimmage. But Gray looked no better than what he is — a quality NFL backup. Lorenzen looked awful with a painfully slow release.
Runningbacks
29 Joseph Addai HB
1 game/1 start, 1-(-4)-0 rushing, 1-9-0 receiving (1 target)
38 Dominic Rhodes HB
1 game/0 start, 3-17-0 rushing
36 Kenton Keith HB
1 game/0 start, 3-10-0 rushing, (2 targets)
32 Mike Hart HB
1 game/0 start, 4-53-0 rushing, 3-28-0 receiving (3 targets)
30 Clifton Dawson HB
1 game/0 start, 4-7-0 rushing,
35 Chad Simpson HB
1 game/0 start, 2-10-0 rushing, 1-11-0 receiving, (plus 1-15-0 receiving, nullified)
• Addai leaving after two plays raises fears that his college durability problems may return. Rhodes showed more burst than he usually does, but was clearly outplayed by Hart. The rookie looked like Emmitt Smith out there; he was hard to locate and harder to bring down. One more performance like that and I’m a believer. Keith didn’t impress as a runner or blocker and can’t catch the ball at all. Dawson still seems to lack the quicks necessary for the NFL. Simpson ran and caught well and could pass Keith and Dawson if he keeps it up. Surprised and disappointed not to see him on return teams.
Wide receivers
87 Reggie Wayne WR
1 game/1 start, (1 target)
88 Marvin Harrison WR
0 games/0 start
11 Anthony Gonzalez WR
1 game/1 start, 2-7-0 receiving (2 targets)
80 Devin Aromashadu WR
1 game/0 start, 2-28-0 receiving (7 targets)
83 Roy Hall WR
1 game/0 start, 4-31-0 receiving (5 targets)
85 Pierre Garcon WR
1 game/0 start, 4-33-0 receiving (7 targets), 1-1-0 punt return, 1-51-0 kick return
10 Courtney Roby WR
1 game/0 start, 1-47-0 receiving (4 targets), 2-48-0 kick returns
16 Onrea Jones WR
1 game/0 start, 2-37-1 receiving (3 targets)
14 Sam Giguere WR
1 game/0 start
• Lackluster play by Sorgi and Lorenzen hobbled some of the receivers, while having Gray in there helped others. Taken on their own terms, though, I was impressed by Gonzo’s toughness and Garcon’s speed and smoothness. He’s ready to contribute now. Neither Aromoshadu nor Hall looked natural out there, laboring on their routes and working to catch the ball. Jones and Roby remind us why they are in the hunt for spots, but also why they’re not at the top of the list. Giguere was MIA — I still seem him as a practice squadder, though.
Tight ends
44 Dallas Clark TE
1 game/1 start, 3-25-0 receiving (5 targets)
47 Gijon Robinson TE
1 game/1 start, 4-49-0 receiving (4 targets)
84 Jacob Tamme TE
1 game/0 start, 1-7-0 receiving (3 targets)
46 Zac Herold TE
1 game/0 start, 1-7-0 receiving (1 target)
86 Tom Santi TE
0 games/0 start
• As usual, Clark looked way more comfortable in the slot than in tight. He clearly doesn’t have the kind of rapport with Sorgi that he does with Manning. I’m not angry at the sack allowed by Robinson, but he could have at least chipped the guy. Still, he looked very polished and dangerous as a receiver. I’ll bet we see lots more of him. Herold looked a little more confident than Tamme, but that may not last long.
Tackles
67 Tony Ugoh T
1 game/1 start
71 Ryan Diem T
1 game/1 start
75 Michael Toudouze T
1 game/0 start
72 Corey Hilliard T
1 game/0 start
60 Darren Marquez T
1 games/0 start
Guards
65 Ryan Lilja G
0 games/0 start
74 Charlie Johnson G
1 game/1 start
76 Dan Federkeil G
1 game/1 start
78 Mike Pollak G
1 game/0 start
53 Steve Justice G
1 game/0 start
Centers
63 Jeff Saturday C
1 game/1 start
61 Jamey Richard C 1 game/0 start, 1/1 fumble/lost (bad snap for safety), 1-10 penalty (offensive holding)
73 Doug Datish C
1 game/0 start
• The starting line — even with Federkeil out of place at left guard filling in for an injured Lilja — looked competent; better in pass situations than the run. You can tell the coaches love Federkeil. Richard’s debut went from astounding bad to pretty impressive. He can really open holes in the running game. Pollak and Justice also looked nervous at first, but played better as they went along. None of the other backups stood at as particularly good or bad.
Defensive ends
93 Dwight Freeney DE
0 games/0 start
79 Raheem Brock DE
1 game/1 start, 1 assisted tackle, 0.5-3.5 sack, 1 hurry
98 Robert Mathis DE
1 game/0 start
91 Josh Thomas DE
1 game/1 start, 1 assisted tackle, 0.5-3.5 sack, 1 hurry
90 Jeff Charleston DE
1 game/0 start, 3 tackles, 1 assisted tackle, 0.5-4 sack, 1-3 stuff, 1 forced fumble
92 Marcus Howard DE
1 game/0 start, 2 tackles, 1 assisted tackle, 1-5-5 sack, 1 hurry 1 pass deflection
60 Curtis Johnson DE
1 game/0 start, 4 tackles, 1-1 sack, 1-1 stuff
64 Ben Ishola DE
0 games/0 start
• Both Marcus Howard and Curtis Johnson played hard and well and made strong bids for the 53. Howard, in particular, showed a nonstop motor and appeared unblockable at times. But you know who else impressed me? Charleston. He had a stuff, a half-sack with a forced fumble and his other two tackles were both one yard beyond the line of scrimmage. Thomas also played well, looking stout and spending significant time in the Redskins’ backfield despite facing up against all-everything tackle Chris Samuels. And I loved seeing Brock back outside, where he was quicker than I remembered and looks capable of sealing off those annoying outside runs that have plagued the Colts in recent years. When Freeney returns, the Colts could have an embarrassment of wealth at this position.
Defensive tackles
99 Ed Johnson DT
1 game/1 start, 1 tackle
96 Keyunta Dawson DT
1 game/1 start
95 Darrell Reid DT
1 game/0 start, 3 tackles, 1 special-teams tackles 1-5 penalty (offsides)
68 Eric Foster DT
1 game/0 start, 1 tackle
61 Colin Ferrell DT
1 game/0 start, 1-5 penalty (defensive holding)
69 Joe Bradley DT
1 game/0 start
• As imressed as I was with the ends, I was disappointed in the tackles. Johnson looked solid, but Dawson seemed a bit overwhelmed and should probably be spotted to be effective. Reid looked fairly awful to me, lacking penetration and getting pulled for extra yardage when he wasn’t blocked out of the way. None of the much-hyped trio of Foster, Ferrell and Bradley showed me anything I didn’t already know. It would be great if Quinn Pitcock returned so that Brock won’t have to come back inside.
Outside linebackers
54 Freddy Keiaho WLB
1 game/1 start, 1 assisted tackle
56 Tyjuan Hagler OLB
0 games/0 start,
55 Clint Session OLB
0 games/0 start,
50 Phillip Wheeler OLB
0 games/0 start,
51 Victor Worsley MLB
1 game/0 start, 1 assisted tackle
52 Ramon Guzman OLB
1 game/0 start, 1 tackle, 1 assisted tackle
49 Jordan Senn OLB
1 game/0 start, 11 tackles
57 Brandon Archer OLB
1 game/0 start, 1 tackle, 1 assisted tackle
Middle linebackers
58 Gary Brackett MLB
0 games/0 start,
59 Kyle Shotwell MLB
1 game/1 start, 4 tackles, 2 special-teams tackles
• With so many injuries to starters and front-line backups, we had an opportunity to see what the backups had. At best, the results were mixed. People have been talking about Senn’s 11 tackles, but they were 9, 11, 7, 11, 7, 6, 6, 34, 2, 19 and 4 yards downfield. I’m not down on Senn — he was mostly cleaning up other people’s messes and looked pretty good in zone coverage — but have you ever heard a safety described as being “an extra linebacker?” Well, Senn at linebacker is like having an extra safety. Similarly, Shotwell had to deal with a jailbreak inside and stood up better than expected. I like him on specials. Guzman is still lost in zone coverage, Archer takes some funny angles on running plays and Worsley didn’t show me much new.
Cornerbacks
28 Marlin Jackson CB
1 game/1 start, 1 tackle
26 Kelvin Hayden CB
1 game/1 start, 1 tackle, 1-10 penalty (offensive holding)
23 Tim Jennings CB
1 game/1 start, 2 tackles
20 Dante Hughes CB
1 game/0 start, 1 tackle
34 TJ Rushing CB
1 game/0 start, 1-29-0 punt return, 1-23-0 kick return, (plus 1-63-1 punt return nullified), 1 special-teams tackle
31 Keiwan Ratliff CB
1 game/0 start, 4 tackles
25 Michael Coe CB
0 games/0 start
37 Antonio Smith CB
1 game/0 start, 1 tackle
39 Brandon Foster CB
1 game/0 start
• The starters looked okay. Jennings was burned early but came back to play a solid game. Hughes didn’t look bad — he really can hit. Ratliff played with veteran savvy, but I still see his lack of tackling ability too big a deficit for him to make the team. Rushing better hope he wins the return job, because his defensive back play won’t. Smith is as good as cut if he doesn’t improve and Foster was invisible.
Safeties
21 Bob Sanders S
0 games/0 start
41 Antoine Bethea S
1 game/1 start
43 Matt Giordano S
1 game/1 start, 1 special-teams tackle
33 Melvin Bullitt S
0 games/0 start
42 Brannon Condren S
1 game/0 start, 4 tackles
40 Jamie Silva S
1 game/0 start, 3 tackles, 1 special-teams tackle
• I now understand why the Colts drafted Condren. He was a total beast, all over the field. He looked adept in coverage and can hit. I’d say he’d be a future starter if this wasn’t the Colts. Giordano played his usual game, but he could be in trouble if Condren continues to develop and Bullitt returns in time. Silva didn’t look bad, but needs to step it up.
Special teams
4 Adam Vinatieri K
1 game/0 start, 2-2 field goal attempts (24, 26), 1-1 extra-point attempts, 3-157-1 kickoffs (21 return yards), 1/0 onside kicks
6 Adam Crossett K/P
1 game/0 start, 1-1 field goal attempts (28), 1-63-0 kickoffs (19 return yards) 1-53-0 punting (1 in opponent’s 20, 0 return yards)
17 Hunter Smith P
1 game/0 start, 1-56-0 punting (1 in opponent’s 20, 6 return yards), 1-73-0 kickoffs (21 return yards)
48 Justin Snow LS
1 game/0 start
• No complaints. Crossett can kick, but it probably won’t be for Indy. Snow was automatic, and the coverage teams looked very solid for August. It’ll be fun to see how the return job competition works out. I give Garcon the edge because he’s a better receiver than Rushing is a defensive back.
• Three Colts — Charleston, Hall and Garcon — suffered injuries in the game, but none are considered serious.
In a nutshell: The Redskins’ second stringers are better than the Colts’ fourth stringers.
Quarterbacks
18 Peyton Manning QB
0 games/0 start,
12 Jim Sorgi QB
1 game/1 start, 10-7-66-0-0 passing, 1/6 sacked
5 Quinn Gray QB
1 game/0 start, 2-11-0 rushing, 19-10-160-1-0 pass
13 Jared Lorenzen QB
1 game/0 start, 1-9-0 rushing, 21-12-93-0-1 passing, 2/16 sacked
• Gray clearly outplayed Sorgi — who still holds onto the ball too long and seems afraid to throw past the line of scrimmage. But Gray looked no better than what he is — a quality NFL backup. Lorenzen looked awful with a painfully slow release.
Runningbacks
29 Joseph Addai HB
1 game/1 start, 1-(-4)-0 rushing, 1-9-0 receiving (1 target)
38 Dominic Rhodes HB
1 game/0 start, 3-17-0 rushing
36 Kenton Keith HB
1 game/0 start, 3-10-0 rushing, (2 targets)
32 Mike Hart HB
1 game/0 start, 4-53-0 rushing, 3-28-0 receiving (3 targets)
30 Clifton Dawson HB
1 game/0 start, 4-7-0 rushing,
35 Chad Simpson HB
1 game/0 start, 2-10-0 rushing, 1-11-0 receiving, (plus 1-15-0 receiving, nullified)
• Addai leaving after two plays raises fears that his college durability problems may return. Rhodes showed more burst than he usually does, but was clearly outplayed by Hart. The rookie looked like Emmitt Smith out there; he was hard to locate and harder to bring down. One more performance like that and I’m a believer. Keith didn’t impress as a runner or blocker and can’t catch the ball at all. Dawson still seems to lack the quicks necessary for the NFL. Simpson ran and caught well and could pass Keith and Dawson if he keeps it up. Surprised and disappointed not to see him on return teams.
Wide receivers
87 Reggie Wayne WR
1 game/1 start, (1 target)
88 Marvin Harrison WR
0 games/0 start
11 Anthony Gonzalez WR
1 game/1 start, 2-7-0 receiving (2 targets)
80 Devin Aromashadu WR
1 game/0 start, 2-28-0 receiving (7 targets)
83 Roy Hall WR
1 game/0 start, 4-31-0 receiving (5 targets)
85 Pierre Garcon WR
1 game/0 start, 4-33-0 receiving (7 targets), 1-1-0 punt return, 1-51-0 kick return
10 Courtney Roby WR
1 game/0 start, 1-47-0 receiving (4 targets), 2-48-0 kick returns
16 Onrea Jones WR
1 game/0 start, 2-37-1 receiving (3 targets)
14 Sam Giguere WR
1 game/0 start
• Lackluster play by Sorgi and Lorenzen hobbled some of the receivers, while having Gray in there helped others. Taken on their own terms, though, I was impressed by Gonzo’s toughness and Garcon’s speed and smoothness. He’s ready to contribute now. Neither Aromoshadu nor Hall looked natural out there, laboring on their routes and working to catch the ball. Jones and Roby remind us why they are in the hunt for spots, but also why they’re not at the top of the list. Giguere was MIA — I still seem him as a practice squadder, though.
Tight ends
44 Dallas Clark TE
1 game/1 start, 3-25-0 receiving (5 targets)
47 Gijon Robinson TE
1 game/1 start, 4-49-0 receiving (4 targets)
84 Jacob Tamme TE
1 game/0 start, 1-7-0 receiving (3 targets)
46 Zac Herold TE
1 game/0 start, 1-7-0 receiving (1 target)
86 Tom Santi TE
0 games/0 start
• As usual, Clark looked way more comfortable in the slot than in tight. He clearly doesn’t have the kind of rapport with Sorgi that he does with Manning. I’m not angry at the sack allowed by Robinson, but he could have at least chipped the guy. Still, he looked very polished and dangerous as a receiver. I’ll bet we see lots more of him. Herold looked a little more confident than Tamme, but that may not last long.
Tackles
67 Tony Ugoh T
1 game/1 start
71 Ryan Diem T
1 game/1 start
75 Michael Toudouze T
1 game/0 start
72 Corey Hilliard T
1 game/0 start
60 Darren Marquez T
1 games/0 start
Guards
65 Ryan Lilja G
0 games/0 start
74 Charlie Johnson G
1 game/1 start
76 Dan Federkeil G
1 game/1 start
78 Mike Pollak G
1 game/0 start
53 Steve Justice G
1 game/0 start
Centers
63 Jeff Saturday C
1 game/1 start
61 Jamey Richard C 1 game/0 start, 1/1 fumble/lost (bad snap for safety), 1-10 penalty (offensive holding)
73 Doug Datish C
1 game/0 start
• The starting line — even with Federkeil out of place at left guard filling in for an injured Lilja — looked competent; better in pass situations than the run. You can tell the coaches love Federkeil. Richard’s debut went from astounding bad to pretty impressive. He can really open holes in the running game. Pollak and Justice also looked nervous at first, but played better as they went along. None of the other backups stood at as particularly good or bad.
Defensive ends
93 Dwight Freeney DE
0 games/0 start
79 Raheem Brock DE
1 game/1 start, 1 assisted tackle, 0.5-3.5 sack, 1 hurry
98 Robert Mathis DE
1 game/0 start
91 Josh Thomas DE
1 game/1 start, 1 assisted tackle, 0.5-3.5 sack, 1 hurry
90 Jeff Charleston DE
1 game/0 start, 3 tackles, 1 assisted tackle, 0.5-4 sack, 1-3 stuff, 1 forced fumble
92 Marcus Howard DE
1 game/0 start, 2 tackles, 1 assisted tackle, 1-5-5 sack, 1 hurry 1 pass deflection
60 Curtis Johnson DE
1 game/0 start, 4 tackles, 1-1 sack, 1-1 stuff
64 Ben Ishola DE
0 games/0 start
• Both Marcus Howard and Curtis Johnson played hard and well and made strong bids for the 53. Howard, in particular, showed a nonstop motor and appeared unblockable at times. But you know who else impressed me? Charleston. He had a stuff, a half-sack with a forced fumble and his other two tackles were both one yard beyond the line of scrimmage. Thomas also played well, looking stout and spending significant time in the Redskins’ backfield despite facing up against all-everything tackle Chris Samuels. And I loved seeing Brock back outside, where he was quicker than I remembered and looks capable of sealing off those annoying outside runs that have plagued the Colts in recent years. When Freeney returns, the Colts could have an embarrassment of wealth at this position.
Defensive tackles
99 Ed Johnson DT
1 game/1 start, 1 tackle
96 Keyunta Dawson DT
1 game/1 start
95 Darrell Reid DT
1 game/0 start, 3 tackles, 1 special-teams tackles 1-5 penalty (offsides)
68 Eric Foster DT
1 game/0 start, 1 tackle
61 Colin Ferrell DT
1 game/0 start, 1-5 penalty (defensive holding)
69 Joe Bradley DT
1 game/0 start
• As imressed as I was with the ends, I was disappointed in the tackles. Johnson looked solid, but Dawson seemed a bit overwhelmed and should probably be spotted to be effective. Reid looked fairly awful to me, lacking penetration and getting pulled for extra yardage when he wasn’t blocked out of the way. None of the much-hyped trio of Foster, Ferrell and Bradley showed me anything I didn’t already know. It would be great if Quinn Pitcock returned so that Brock won’t have to come back inside.
Outside linebackers
54 Freddy Keiaho WLB
1 game/1 start, 1 assisted tackle
56 Tyjuan Hagler OLB
0 games/0 start,
55 Clint Session OLB
0 games/0 start,
50 Phillip Wheeler OLB
0 games/0 start,
51 Victor Worsley MLB
1 game/0 start, 1 assisted tackle
52 Ramon Guzman OLB
1 game/0 start, 1 tackle, 1 assisted tackle
49 Jordan Senn OLB
1 game/0 start, 11 tackles
57 Brandon Archer OLB
1 game/0 start, 1 tackle, 1 assisted tackle
Middle linebackers
58 Gary Brackett MLB
0 games/0 start,
59 Kyle Shotwell MLB
1 game/1 start, 4 tackles, 2 special-teams tackles
• With so many injuries to starters and front-line backups, we had an opportunity to see what the backups had. At best, the results were mixed. People have been talking about Senn’s 11 tackles, but they were 9, 11, 7, 11, 7, 6, 6, 34, 2, 19 and 4 yards downfield. I’m not down on Senn — he was mostly cleaning up other people’s messes and looked pretty good in zone coverage — but have you ever heard a safety described as being “an extra linebacker?” Well, Senn at linebacker is like having an extra safety. Similarly, Shotwell had to deal with a jailbreak inside and stood up better than expected. I like him on specials. Guzman is still lost in zone coverage, Archer takes some funny angles on running plays and Worsley didn’t show me much new.
Cornerbacks
28 Marlin Jackson CB
1 game/1 start, 1 tackle
26 Kelvin Hayden CB
1 game/1 start, 1 tackle, 1-10 penalty (offensive holding)
23 Tim Jennings CB
1 game/1 start, 2 tackles
20 Dante Hughes CB
1 game/0 start, 1 tackle
34 TJ Rushing CB
1 game/0 start, 1-29-0 punt return, 1-23-0 kick return, (plus 1-63-1 punt return nullified), 1 special-teams tackle
31 Keiwan Ratliff CB
1 game/0 start, 4 tackles
25 Michael Coe CB
0 games/0 start
37 Antonio Smith CB
1 game/0 start, 1 tackle
39 Brandon Foster CB
1 game/0 start
• The starters looked okay. Jennings was burned early but came back to play a solid game. Hughes didn’t look bad — he really can hit. Ratliff played with veteran savvy, but I still see his lack of tackling ability too big a deficit for him to make the team. Rushing better hope he wins the return job, because his defensive back play won’t. Smith is as good as cut if he doesn’t improve and Foster was invisible.
Safeties
21 Bob Sanders S
0 games/0 start
41 Antoine Bethea S
1 game/1 start
43 Matt Giordano S
1 game/1 start, 1 special-teams tackle
33 Melvin Bullitt S
0 games/0 start
42 Brannon Condren S
1 game/0 start, 4 tackles
40 Jamie Silva S
1 game/0 start, 3 tackles, 1 special-teams tackle
• I now understand why the Colts drafted Condren. He was a total beast, all over the field. He looked adept in coverage and can hit. I’d say he’d be a future starter if this wasn’t the Colts. Giordano played his usual game, but he could be in trouble if Condren continues to develop and Bullitt returns in time. Silva didn’t look bad, but needs to step it up.
Special teams
4 Adam Vinatieri K
1 game/0 start, 2-2 field goal attempts (24, 26), 1-1 extra-point attempts, 3-157-1 kickoffs (21 return yards), 1/0 onside kicks
6 Adam Crossett K/P
1 game/0 start, 1-1 field goal attempts (28), 1-63-0 kickoffs (19 return yards) 1-53-0 punting (1 in opponent’s 20, 0 return yards)
17 Hunter Smith P
1 game/0 start, 1-56-0 punting (1 in opponent’s 20, 6 return yards), 1-73-0 kickoffs (21 return yards)
48 Justin Snow LS
1 game/0 start
• No complaints. Crossett can kick, but it probably won’t be for Indy. Snow was automatic, and the coverage teams looked very solid for August. It’ll be fun to see how the return job competition works out. I give Garcon the edge because he’s a better receiver than Rushing is a defensive back.
• Three Colts — Charleston, Hall and Garcon — suffered injuries in the game, but none are considered serious.
Monday, July 28, 2008
Catching up
Sorry not to update for so long, but at least there’s plenty to talk about.
Injuries
• Peyton Manning: Yep, the ol’ bursa sac’s actin’ up. You know what that is? It’s a little bag of goo that cushions the shock of action at a particular joint. And this particular joint is in Manning’s knee. If his knee hurts, he can’t play well. His knee wasn’t responding to treatment so he had surgery and is said to be out 4-6 weeks. That would put him in line to be just about iffy for the season opener.
But I think he’ll be back earlier. The guy is a conditioning maniac and is as tough as nails. It’s been widely reported that Manning has taken 9,778 of 10,098 possible snaps (96.83 percent) since he became a Colt. But that’s missing the point. In fact, all but one of those missed snaps was missed intentionally — so that backup Jim Sorgi could get some live action.
In fact, Manning has missed a total of one snap since turning pro — and that was for a broken jaw. So, he’s actually played 9,778 of 9,779 snaps (99.98977 percent) snaps he was supposed to.
Yeah he’s getting older and his joints aren’t what they used to be, but through pure force of will, he’ll be ready when the games get real in September.
• Marvin Harrison: His knee is checking out, but I think his decline has started and will be sharp. He’s still a top receiver, but will definitely enter the season playing second fiddle to Reggie Wayne and may potential be playing third with the emergence of Anthony Gonzalez and maybe even fourth if Dallas Clark keeps playing like he has been. All reports out of training camp say he’s the same ol’ Marvin, but I would expect that unless he was on crutches. At any rate, the team is bringing him along slowly in the hopes of squeezing another big season or two out of his skinny, battered and headed-to-Canton body.
• Tyjuan Hagler: I feel bad for Tyjuan. This is his walk year and I don’t even think his mother believes the Colts have any interest in re-signing him. While his absence helps the team in that they will be able to pick his successor from Clint Session, Phillip Wheeler or Victor Worsley, it’s bad for him. His next contract depends on how well he plays this year. It would definitely be in his best interest to get in quickly and reclaim his starting spot before he’s usurped. You don’t want to go looking for a contract after a year on the bench. This competition may be even more interesting than first thought. On the first day of camp, Session was absent for “personal reasons” and Wheeler injured his knee. Ramon Guzman played a few snaps there early in camp, but I think that was by default — his future is as a pure pass-rusher.
• Everyone else: I’m not sure Dwight Freeney will ever be what he was before, but he’ll always be awesome. Bob Sanders is always in and out of the shop because, well, humans aren’t actually supposed to be built the way he is. Ryan Lilja will be fine. The others don’t bother me.
Roster moves
• The cuts: With Manning unavailable for preseason, the Colts had to get serious about the third-string quarterback position. That meant that Josh Betts and Adam Trafalis had to go. I’m not saying they don’t have talent, just that they weren’t ready for prime time.
Instead, the Colts signed a couple of guys who not only have a bit of NFL experience, but also far better college resumés. The interesting thing, though, is that they’re both — how do I put this delicately? — tubby.
Perhaps the more impressive of them is Jared Lorenzen (6032, 288, 5.28 in 2004/2007 stats: 8-4-28-0-1 passing, 1-2-0 rushing) — better known as Quarter(got)back, the Hefty Lefty, the Pillsbury Throwboy, The Abominable Throwman, J.Load, Round Mound of Touchdown, BBQ (Big Beautiful Quarterback), Battleship Lorenzen, Butterball, Lord Of The Ring-Dings and He Ate Me.
Despite the flab, this kid is awesomely talented. If you watch video of him at Kentucky, you can see exactly how gifted he is. He can make every throw, read defenses well and stands up against the rush.
But he is fat. If the lure of NFL stardom isn’t enough to make him drop the pounds, what would be? What kind of dedication is that? While he has some athletic ability, the fact is that his big ol’ belly makes him a sitting duck in the pocket, limits his mobility and prevents him from being a rushing threat.
Many Colts fans are familiar with Quinn Gray (6020, 232, 4.77 in 2002/2007 stats: 144-80-986-10-5 passing, 19-57-0 rushing) because he played with the Jacksonville Jaguars and then signed with the Houston Texans. And, unlike Lorenzen, Gray has had an impact on the NFL, recording a 2-2 record as a starter.
He’s similar to Lorenzen — a fat, sitting duck with a live arm. He may have been 232 with a 4.77 coming out of college in 2002, but he’s more like 255-260 now and his forty time is likely to have ballooned as much as his belly.
But, unlike Lorenzen, he has a reputation as being not all that smart. The scuttlebutt is that the Texans cut him because he couldn’t master their playbook. I’m sorry, the Texans’ playbook? If André Johnson is covered, throw it to the tight end — that’s their playbook. If he can’t understand that, he’ll have no chance in Indy.
Still, that is just a rumor. (1) He certainly had no problem picking up the Jaguars’ offense despite having come from Florida A&M. And he may have been cut by the Texans simply because they already have two fine signal-callers and didn’t want to pay Gray $645,000 just to walk around with a uniform and baseball cap on. (2)
The training camp competition between these two should be fascinating. The Colts’ offense is so complex it’s unlikely either would leapfrog Sorgi for the No. 2 position in such a short time. But in the unlikely-but-possible event that Sorgi enters the regular season as No. 1, the Colts will definitely need a competent No. 2. The other player is likely to be cut.
So here we have two very similar, recently cut quarterbacks fighting for their livelihoods. I see Gray having a slight edge at this point, though Lorenzen has a slightly better upside. Every snap these guys take will be under a collection of microscopes and, unless one falls on his face, the decision will be excruciating.
As for the other cuts, well, Rudy Burgess was brought in to fight for the return specialist job. I guess he didn’t wow them enough to continue. And while guard Mike Elgin survived the influx of interior linemen talent provided by the draft, he was made superfluous by the signing of ex-Falcon Doug Datish, who provides the same skills in a bigger, more experienced package.
Other:
• I’m as on edge as anyone when it comes to the Quinn Pitcock situation. I find it hard to believe (3) that a lineman noted for his toughness, leadership and non-stop motor would lose interest in football. It makes even less sense when you factor in that he’s penciled in to be a major contributor on a great team and he’s being paid $515,500 to do it. (4) Although my predictions have been way off as late, I’m going to go out on a limb once again and opine that Pitcock will be back in camp soon.
• Raheem Brock is playing a lot at end in camp. That’s good. It’ll give Robert Mathis and Freeney downs off (5) to stay fresh. And Brock is a better run-stopper than either. In fact, he always reminded me of a 3-4 end — a guy who, in the 4-3 would be better inside on passing downs and outside on running downs. Don’t discount the emergence of Ed Johnson for the switch. It also reinforces my belief they expect something from Pitcock. (6)
• Apparently, Dan Federkeil is getting some snaps at guard. I think that’s more of a case of him getting live snaps against good players than it is about him competing for a spot inside. They like his potential as a tackle, but 6’7 guards are a rarity for a reason.
• While most fans have been predicting huge things from Roy Hall and big things from Devin Aromashodu, I think either may be looking up the depth chart at Pierre Garcon before too long. He’s a natural.
Notes:
1. This accusation seems to come up around many black quarterbacks, but thankfully less often than in the past
2. They have Shane Boyd and Erik Brink fighting for that job — and they are way cheaper; I think the Texans signed Gray because they were contemplating trading Sage Rosenfels away, then thought better of it
3. I am, as always, an optimist
4. Not to dis the man, but where else is he gonna make anywhere near that?
5. This is essential at this point in their careers
6. I know, I know, from every report the undrafted rookies are looking like all-pros in camp; but I’ll believe it when I see it for real — they said the same things about Brandon Hicks and a million other guys
Injuries
• Peyton Manning: Yep, the ol’ bursa sac’s actin’ up. You know what that is? It’s a little bag of goo that cushions the shock of action at a particular joint. And this particular joint is in Manning’s knee. If his knee hurts, he can’t play well. His knee wasn’t responding to treatment so he had surgery and is said to be out 4-6 weeks. That would put him in line to be just about iffy for the season opener.
But I think he’ll be back earlier. The guy is a conditioning maniac and is as tough as nails. It’s been widely reported that Manning has taken 9,778 of 10,098 possible snaps (96.83 percent) since he became a Colt. But that’s missing the point. In fact, all but one of those missed snaps was missed intentionally — so that backup Jim Sorgi could get some live action.
In fact, Manning has missed a total of one snap since turning pro — and that was for a broken jaw. So, he’s actually played 9,778 of 9,779 snaps (99.98977 percent) snaps he was supposed to.
Yeah he’s getting older and his joints aren’t what they used to be, but through pure force of will, he’ll be ready when the games get real in September.
• Marvin Harrison: His knee is checking out, but I think his decline has started and will be sharp. He’s still a top receiver, but will definitely enter the season playing second fiddle to Reggie Wayne and may potential be playing third with the emergence of Anthony Gonzalez and maybe even fourth if Dallas Clark keeps playing like he has been. All reports out of training camp say he’s the same ol’ Marvin, but I would expect that unless he was on crutches. At any rate, the team is bringing him along slowly in the hopes of squeezing another big season or two out of his skinny, battered and headed-to-Canton body.
• Tyjuan Hagler: I feel bad for Tyjuan. This is his walk year and I don’t even think his mother believes the Colts have any interest in re-signing him. While his absence helps the team in that they will be able to pick his successor from Clint Session, Phillip Wheeler or Victor Worsley, it’s bad for him. His next contract depends on how well he plays this year. It would definitely be in his best interest to get in quickly and reclaim his starting spot before he’s usurped. You don’t want to go looking for a contract after a year on the bench. This competition may be even more interesting than first thought. On the first day of camp, Session was absent for “personal reasons” and Wheeler injured his knee. Ramon Guzman played a few snaps there early in camp, but I think that was by default — his future is as a pure pass-rusher.
• Everyone else: I’m not sure Dwight Freeney will ever be what he was before, but he’ll always be awesome. Bob Sanders is always in and out of the shop because, well, humans aren’t actually supposed to be built the way he is. Ryan Lilja will be fine. The others don’t bother me.
Roster moves
• The cuts: With Manning unavailable for preseason, the Colts had to get serious about the third-string quarterback position. That meant that Josh Betts and Adam Trafalis had to go. I’m not saying they don’t have talent, just that they weren’t ready for prime time.
Instead, the Colts signed a couple of guys who not only have a bit of NFL experience, but also far better college resumés. The interesting thing, though, is that they’re both — how do I put this delicately? — tubby.
Perhaps the more impressive of them is Jared Lorenzen (6032, 288, 5.28 in 2004/2007 stats: 8-4-28-0-1 passing, 1-2-0 rushing) — better known as Quarter(got)back, the Hefty Lefty, the Pillsbury Throwboy, The Abominable Throwman, J.Load, Round Mound of Touchdown, BBQ (Big Beautiful Quarterback), Battleship Lorenzen, Butterball, Lord Of The Ring-Dings and He Ate Me.
Despite the flab, this kid is awesomely talented. If you watch video of him at Kentucky, you can see exactly how gifted he is. He can make every throw, read defenses well and stands up against the rush.
But he is fat. If the lure of NFL stardom isn’t enough to make him drop the pounds, what would be? What kind of dedication is that? While he has some athletic ability, the fact is that his big ol’ belly makes him a sitting duck in the pocket, limits his mobility and prevents him from being a rushing threat.
Many Colts fans are familiar with Quinn Gray (6020, 232, 4.77 in 2002/2007 stats: 144-80-986-10-5 passing, 19-57-0 rushing) because he played with the Jacksonville Jaguars and then signed with the Houston Texans. And, unlike Lorenzen, Gray has had an impact on the NFL, recording a 2-2 record as a starter.
He’s similar to Lorenzen — a fat, sitting duck with a live arm. He may have been 232 with a 4.77 coming out of college in 2002, but he’s more like 255-260 now and his forty time is likely to have ballooned as much as his belly.
But, unlike Lorenzen, he has a reputation as being not all that smart. The scuttlebutt is that the Texans cut him because he couldn’t master their playbook. I’m sorry, the Texans’ playbook? If André Johnson is covered, throw it to the tight end — that’s their playbook. If he can’t understand that, he’ll have no chance in Indy.
Still, that is just a rumor. (1) He certainly had no problem picking up the Jaguars’ offense despite having come from Florida A&M. And he may have been cut by the Texans simply because they already have two fine signal-callers and didn’t want to pay Gray $645,000 just to walk around with a uniform and baseball cap on. (2)
The training camp competition between these two should be fascinating. The Colts’ offense is so complex it’s unlikely either would leapfrog Sorgi for the No. 2 position in such a short time. But in the unlikely-but-possible event that Sorgi enters the regular season as No. 1, the Colts will definitely need a competent No. 2. The other player is likely to be cut.
So here we have two very similar, recently cut quarterbacks fighting for their livelihoods. I see Gray having a slight edge at this point, though Lorenzen has a slightly better upside. Every snap these guys take will be under a collection of microscopes and, unless one falls on his face, the decision will be excruciating.
As for the other cuts, well, Rudy Burgess was brought in to fight for the return specialist job. I guess he didn’t wow them enough to continue. And while guard Mike Elgin survived the influx of interior linemen talent provided by the draft, he was made superfluous by the signing of ex-Falcon Doug Datish, who provides the same skills in a bigger, more experienced package.
Other:
• I’m as on edge as anyone when it comes to the Quinn Pitcock situation. I find it hard to believe (3) that a lineman noted for his toughness, leadership and non-stop motor would lose interest in football. It makes even less sense when you factor in that he’s penciled in to be a major contributor on a great team and he’s being paid $515,500 to do it. (4) Although my predictions have been way off as late, I’m going to go out on a limb once again and opine that Pitcock will be back in camp soon.
• Raheem Brock is playing a lot at end in camp. That’s good. It’ll give Robert Mathis and Freeney downs off (5) to stay fresh. And Brock is a better run-stopper than either. In fact, he always reminded me of a 3-4 end — a guy who, in the 4-3 would be better inside on passing downs and outside on running downs. Don’t discount the emergence of Ed Johnson for the switch. It also reinforces my belief they expect something from Pitcock. (6)
• Apparently, Dan Federkeil is getting some snaps at guard. I think that’s more of a case of him getting live snaps against good players than it is about him competing for a spot inside. They like his potential as a tackle, but 6’7 guards are a rarity for a reason.
• While most fans have been predicting huge things from Roy Hall and big things from Devin Aromashodu, I think either may be looking up the depth chart at Pierre Garcon before too long. He’s a natural.
Notes:
1. This accusation seems to come up around many black quarterbacks, but thankfully less often than in the past
2. They have Shane Boyd and Erik Brink fighting for that job — and they are way cheaper; I think the Texans signed Gray because they were contemplating trading Sage Rosenfels away, then thought better of it
3. I am, as always, an optimist
4. Not to dis the man, but where else is he gonna make anywhere near that?
5. This is essential at this point in their careers
6. I know, I know, from every report the undrafted rookies are looking like all-pros in camp; but I’ll believe it when I see it for real — they said the same things about Brandon Hicks and a million other guys
Friday, July 4, 2008
An addendum
If you’re not bored of Colts cornerbacks yet, you will be if you read this.
You can’t really compare corners without including penalties. Generally, the Colts’ top three were a fairly disciplined group with few penalties among them. Here’s how it broke down:
Marlin Jackson (3-40): He had one 25-yarder for pass interference against the Titans’ Biren Ealy (1), one 15-yarder for unnecessary roughness and one for defensive offside, which was declined.
Kelvin Hayden (2-17): Really, he only had one for seven on pass interference because his other penalty — for 10 yards — was for offensive holding when he was blocking on a punt return. This comparison is for cornerback play after all.
Tim Jennings (2-10): Two five-yarders, one for pass interference and the other for holding.
Interesting, the worst penalty on a corner was a 37-yarder pass interference call on Michael Coe. It wasn’t only the worst in terms of length, but in needlessness (2). No way Derrick Mason was ever gonna catch that ball. (3) Part of the learning process, I guess.
Conclusion/eyeball test: Penalties don’t appear to be much of a problem for any of the Colts’ top three corners.
Notes:
1. Who he? A tall undrafted free agent who impressed as the season went along and became a fairly large part of the Titans’ plans. Still, no Randy Moss he.
2. Is that a word? You know what I mean.
3. Boller to Mason … 37 yards … one pass … all in the air … does not compute.
You can’t really compare corners without including penalties. Generally, the Colts’ top three were a fairly disciplined group with few penalties among them. Here’s how it broke down:
Marlin Jackson (3-40): He had one 25-yarder for pass interference against the Titans’ Biren Ealy (1), one 15-yarder for unnecessary roughness and one for defensive offside, which was declined.
Kelvin Hayden (2-17): Really, he only had one for seven on pass interference because his other penalty — for 10 yards — was for offensive holding when he was blocking on a punt return. This comparison is for cornerback play after all.
Tim Jennings (2-10): Two five-yarders, one for pass interference and the other for holding.
Interesting, the worst penalty on a corner was a 37-yarder pass interference call on Michael Coe. It wasn’t only the worst in terms of length, but in needlessness (2). No way Derrick Mason was ever gonna catch that ball. (3) Part of the learning process, I guess.
Conclusion/eyeball test: Penalties don’t appear to be much of a problem for any of the Colts’ top three corners.
Notes:
1. Who he? A tall undrafted free agent who impressed as the season went along and became a fairly large part of the Titans’ plans. Still, no Randy Moss he.
2. Is that a word? You know what I mean.
3. Boller to Mason … 37 yards … one pass … all in the air … does not compute.
Thursday, July 3, 2008
A quick look at the corners
Cornerbacks are strange creatures. You usually only hear about them when they make an interception or they get burned. Since the Colts’ corners rarely pick off any passes (the top three guys combined for four picks last year), the usually only get mentioned when things go bad.
Each of the Colts’ top three corners has his detractors, but — the dearth of interceptions notwithstanding — they generally get the job done. Here’s Coltplay’s look at how the three stack up against one another.
1) Pass coverage: Using stats provided by ESPN, we can compare how well each corner did when thrown at in 2007. The numbers are: times thrown at-completions allowed-yards allowed (completion percentage allowed/yards allowed per time thrown at).
Overall
Marlin Jackson 38-25-271 (65.79/7.13)
Kelvin Hayden 67-44-477 (65.67/7.12)
Tim Jennings 33-19-207 (57.58/6.27)
Short (ie. the target was 10 yards or less past the line of scrimmage)
Marlin Jackson 24-19-163 (79.17/6.79)
Kelvin Hayden 46-33-246 (71.74/5.35)
Tim Jennings 19-13-83 (68.42/4.37)
Medium (11-20 yards)
Marlin Jackson 12-5-83 (41.67/6.92)
Kelvin Hayden 14-8-107 (57.14/7.64)
Tim Jennings 11-5-91 (45.45/8.27)
Long (21-30 yards)
Marlin Jackson 2-1-25 (50.00/12.50)
Kelvin Hayden 4-1-35 (25.00/8.75)
Tim Jennings 1-0-0 (00.00/00.00)
Bomb (more than 30 yards)
Marlin Jackson 0-0-0 (00.00/00.00)
Kelvin Hayden 3-2-89 (66.67/29.67)
Tim Jennings 2-1-33 (50.00/16.50)
Interesting numbers when you consider the positions. Jackson normally covers the flanker, Hayden the split end and Jennings the slot guy. While flankers are virtually always better players than split ends, split ends aren’t always better than slot guys — would you rather cover Wes Welker or Donté Stallworth? Andre Davis or Kevin Walter? (1) — so I would consider Jackson’s job in coverage the most difficult by some margin, with Hayden’s only slightly harder than Jennings if it’s even any harder at all.
That said, Jackson and Hayden had remarkably similar overall coverage averages — completion percentages only 0.22 percent apart, yards per attempt just 0.013 yards (less than half an inch) different.
Interestingly, Hayden put up far better numbers short, while Jackson, though slower, was better long.
I attribute that discrepancy to the fact that Jackson (covering the Randy Mosses of the world) left a bigger cushion than Hayden. Hayden, conversely, played closer, which left him a bit more vulnerable to deep patterns.
Jennings showed better overall numbers than either outside guy, especially short. That’s actually a huge surprise to me because slot corners usually play against the quickest, hardest-to-cover-in-a-short-zone guys who make their bread and butter on short routes hoping to break free. Jennings’ numbers then are a testament to exactly how fast (4.32 forty as compared to Hayden’s 4.48 and Jackson’s 4.52) and quick (1.48 ten as compared to Hayden and Jackson who both ran 1.56) he really is.
Of course, part of that is also the fact that he leaves the smallest cushion of them all. Consequently, Jennings’ numbers fall somewhere in between Jackson’s and Hayden’s when it comes to longer routes.
Perhaps even more tellingly than the averages, is the number of times each player was targeted by opposing passers. Despite facing the opposing team’s best receiver most often, Jackson only saw 38 passes thrown his way all season. Compare that to Hayden, who was targeted 67 times. That’s 76.32 percent more often — no accident. In fact, opposing quarterbacks only threw at Jackson five times more often than they did Jennings (33), who was on the field much less often. When it came to passes 21 or more yards downfield, Jackson saw two, Jennings saw three and Hayden saw seven. When you bring it up to more than 30 yards, Hayden was tested three times, Jennings twice and Jackson not at all.
NFL quarterbacks were so unwilling to test Jackson that they would throw to their second- or third-best receivers (2) almost twice as often. Although their overall stats are similar, NFL quarterbacks were almost twice as likely to take their chances against Hayden than they were against Jackson. And when you factor in how often the Colts saw three-wide sets, they’d still much rather test Hayden than Jennings. I’m no expert, but NFL quarterbacks and offensive co-ordinators actually are.
Eyeball test: From what I’ve seen, Jackson hasn’t been tested much, while teams throw willy-nilly at Hayden. Hayden holds up, but you gotta respect how much fear Jackson instills. Jennings does a great job shutting down slots, but doesn’t really scare any quarterbacks into throwing away from him. Except when he is totally outmuscled, I'd say Jennings is the best of the trio in man coverage, but his understanding of zones isn't quite up to where the other guys' are.
2) Hands: Hayden is a former wide receiver. Usually when someone is an ex-wide receiver, it’s because he didn’t have the hands for the position. That’s true of Hayden — I’d hate to see him play on offense — but he still has better hands than the other guys. Although the sample is small, it’s significant that Hayden got his hands on 15 passes (one out of every 4.47 he faced), Jennings on seven (4.71) and Jackson on five (7.60). And, he came down with three picks (one out of every 5.00 passes he got his hands on), Jackson had one (6.00) and Jennings was shut out.
It would appear that Hayden has so-so hands, but he looks like Welker compared to the other two.
Eyeball test: Hayden can catch — and will. Jackson has Roberto Duran’s hands of stone and Jennings hasn’t really seen enough exposure. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets the odd pick or two in the future. (3)
3) Run support/blitzing: All three of the Colts’ top corners have a reputation for supporting the run. But this one isn’t even close. Jackson had 76 tackles (2.00 for every pass he faced), while Hayden had 85 (1.27) and Jennings 21 (0.63). If you include assists, the numbers are even more profound (2.84 for Jackson, 1.75 for Hayden and 0.75 for Jennings).
Since opponents didn’t run right against the Colts significantly more often than they did left, it indicates that Jackson really stepped up in that department. Jennings’ far lower numbers are a combination of two things — he’s not on the field when most runs took place and he’s very tiny (185 pounds to 197 for Hayden and 198 for Jackson).
All are hard hitters — nobody doubts that. Back it up? Jackson and Jennings each forced a fumble, Hayden forced two. Corners don’t usually do that very often.
When it comes to blitzing, there is no comparison. Jackson had half a sack, three quarterback pressures and three stuffs, while Hayden and Jennings had just a stuff apiece.
Eyeball test: Okay, Jackson’s not exactly Bob Sanders, but he’s as close as you’ll see in a corner — dude is simply vicious, a total enforcer against the run. Jennings is more willing in run support and a better tackler technically than Hayden, but Hayden’s size and strength bring him up to even.
4) Conclusion: Nobody will even confuse him with Deion Sanders, but Jackson is a bona fide NFL No. 1 corner. He faces some of the best athletes in the world and consistently shuts them down, particularly on long routes. He has a big cushion, the safety help the Cover-2 defense is designed to provide and a vicious pass rush (4) helping him, but he’s definitely worth the price of admission when it comes to pass coverage.
His real value — again, something that is especially prized in Indy — is his skills as a tackler and blitzer. Compared to most NFL corners, Jackson looks like vintage John Lynch. He backs down from nothing, does the little things right and packs a tremendous wallop.
The backside of that is that he is as likely to get a pick as one of the cheerleaders.
Hayden gets similar numbers in coverage mainly because he’s covering lesser opponents. Still, he gets picked on and picked on and still comes up with impressive production. He is as solid a No. 2 as Jackson is a No. 1. And when it comes to the other stuff, he’s basically the opposite of Jackson. He’s not another linebacker on running plays, but at least his hands aren’t made of stone (perhaps wood, but at least not stone).
And Jennings? Well, he’s significantly better than either of the other two in coverage statistically — but only because he’s covering slot guys. Dude has all the skills in the world, but he’s about my wife’s height and weighs too little to play the big boys’ games outside. If everyone were the same size, Jennings would be among the best half-dozen corners in the league (certainly well ahead of Jackson and Hayden). But they ain’t. Jennings is awesome in the slot, but would be miscast outside. Look at it this way: Tom Hanks is a great actor, but he would be terrible as the lead in Conan the Barbarian. Covering Terrell Owens is playing Conan, not Forrest Gump.
The Colts actually have a very enviable trey of corners. Jackson is a legit No. 1 in the Cover-2. (5) His coverage skills are fine and his abilities as a run supporter, tackler and blitzer easily offset his liabilities as a ballhawk. Similarly, Hayden is a fine No. 2 and Jennings is excellent in the slot. There is a certain Zen quality to how well they mesh.
The monkey wrench in the plan is that Hayden becomes an unrestricted free agent after the season. With the Colts’ chronic cap woes and their history-proven lack of desire to re-sign all but their most important defensive free agents, they could be looking for a new No. 2. And don’t look at Jennings. Dude is awesome inside, but he’d be overpowered outside. He is staying put.
So, if Hayden is not re-signed, what are the options? The Colts drafted two corners in 2007, Daymieon (now Dante) Hughes and Michael Coe. Both are outside types, nothing like Jennings. Hughes (5101, 190, 4.65) is considered a guy who does everything perfectly, but lacks deep speed. In fact, he’s a lot like Jackson, though slower and with better hands (6) and less wow! against the run. He reminds me of Al Harris, the longtime star corner who everybody called too slow when he came out in 1998.
Coe (6005, 190, 4.53) — a coach’s son — is considered a cerebral player who transcends his physical skills. He’s a lot like former Colt Nick Harper; he seems to lack elite overall skills (7), but gets the job done.
There are other candidates, but they are unlikely to leapfrog Hughes and Coe. TJ Rushing has played a little at defensive back, but is the Colts’ primary return man and may not be able to hold onto that job. Keiwan Ratliff was a second-round pick by the Bengals way back in 2004; but has been cut by them and the Bucs since. While he has good ball skills and NFL starting experience, he’s the slowest of all the team’s corners and has strong moral convictions against not hurting (or even slowing down) anyone with his tackle attempts. That will not endear him to coaches any more than it will fans. Then there’s rookie Brandon Foster. He has some cover skills, good ball skills and the heart of a lion. (8) But at 5075, 182 (9), he makes Jennings look like the Incredible Hulk. While Foster will probably never see a snap outside, he could learn the slotsman’s arts from Jennings and perhaps eventually replace him. He would have to improve by a massive margin to do that.
The way I look at it is that Jackson is great at what he does, Hayden is very good at what he does and Jennings is awesome at what he does. If Hayden were to leave after 2008, Hughes or Coe could probably step in without too much of a beat missed. Either could also step in for Jackson (10), but you would notice a difference, especially in run support. But if either were to step in for Jennings, things could get ugly.
Notes:
1. This depends on what kind of corner you are. Slot guys are generally more explosive that split ends. I’d rather cover a guy who’ll get their catches, but rarely break out, rather than the guy who can leave you on the ground before he’s 40 yards away.
2. Often across the field, since most, if not all, are right-handed
3. Then look out, this kid can motor — he brought back his 10 career picks at Georgia for 194 yards and two scores.
4. Usually; when the Colts pass rush fell off like a well-thrown knuckleball last season, the corners appeared to step it up a little
5. He’s made for the Cover-2 and would find life much harder outside of it.
6. Actually, he has outstanding ball skills. In 51 games at cal, he had 15-344-4 in interceptions and 30 pass deflections.
7. As with Harper, Coe’s lack of elite closing burst scares me a little.
8. A real one, not the Detroit variety.
9. And he looked a lot smaller than that when he way playing.
10. Both Jackson and Jennings are signed through 2009.
Each of the Colts’ top three corners has his detractors, but — the dearth of interceptions notwithstanding — they generally get the job done. Here’s Coltplay’s look at how the three stack up against one another.
1) Pass coverage: Using stats provided by ESPN, we can compare how well each corner did when thrown at in 2007. The numbers are: times thrown at-completions allowed-yards allowed (completion percentage allowed/yards allowed per time thrown at).
Overall
Marlin Jackson 38-25-271 (65.79/7.13)
Kelvin Hayden 67-44-477 (65.67/7.12)
Tim Jennings 33-19-207 (57.58/6.27)
Short (ie. the target was 10 yards or less past the line of scrimmage)
Marlin Jackson 24-19-163 (79.17/6.79)
Kelvin Hayden 46-33-246 (71.74/5.35)
Tim Jennings 19-13-83 (68.42/4.37)
Medium (11-20 yards)
Marlin Jackson 12-5-83 (41.67/6.92)
Kelvin Hayden 14-8-107 (57.14/7.64)
Tim Jennings 11-5-91 (45.45/8.27)
Long (21-30 yards)
Marlin Jackson 2-1-25 (50.00/12.50)
Kelvin Hayden 4-1-35 (25.00/8.75)
Tim Jennings 1-0-0 (00.00/00.00)
Bomb (more than 30 yards)
Marlin Jackson 0-0-0 (00.00/00.00)
Kelvin Hayden 3-2-89 (66.67/29.67)
Tim Jennings 2-1-33 (50.00/16.50)
Interesting numbers when you consider the positions. Jackson normally covers the flanker, Hayden the split end and Jennings the slot guy. While flankers are virtually always better players than split ends, split ends aren’t always better than slot guys — would you rather cover Wes Welker or Donté Stallworth? Andre Davis or Kevin Walter? (1) — so I would consider Jackson’s job in coverage the most difficult by some margin, with Hayden’s only slightly harder than Jennings if it’s even any harder at all.
That said, Jackson and Hayden had remarkably similar overall coverage averages — completion percentages only 0.22 percent apart, yards per attempt just 0.013 yards (less than half an inch) different.
Interestingly, Hayden put up far better numbers short, while Jackson, though slower, was better long.
I attribute that discrepancy to the fact that Jackson (covering the Randy Mosses of the world) left a bigger cushion than Hayden. Hayden, conversely, played closer, which left him a bit more vulnerable to deep patterns.
Jennings showed better overall numbers than either outside guy, especially short. That’s actually a huge surprise to me because slot corners usually play against the quickest, hardest-to-cover-in-a-short-zone guys who make their bread and butter on short routes hoping to break free. Jennings’ numbers then are a testament to exactly how fast (4.32 forty as compared to Hayden’s 4.48 and Jackson’s 4.52) and quick (1.48 ten as compared to Hayden and Jackson who both ran 1.56) he really is.
Of course, part of that is also the fact that he leaves the smallest cushion of them all. Consequently, Jennings’ numbers fall somewhere in between Jackson’s and Hayden’s when it comes to longer routes.
Perhaps even more tellingly than the averages, is the number of times each player was targeted by opposing passers. Despite facing the opposing team’s best receiver most often, Jackson only saw 38 passes thrown his way all season. Compare that to Hayden, who was targeted 67 times. That’s 76.32 percent more often — no accident. In fact, opposing quarterbacks only threw at Jackson five times more often than they did Jennings (33), who was on the field much less often. When it came to passes 21 or more yards downfield, Jackson saw two, Jennings saw three and Hayden saw seven. When you bring it up to more than 30 yards, Hayden was tested three times, Jennings twice and Jackson not at all.
NFL quarterbacks were so unwilling to test Jackson that they would throw to their second- or third-best receivers (2) almost twice as often. Although their overall stats are similar, NFL quarterbacks were almost twice as likely to take their chances against Hayden than they were against Jackson. And when you factor in how often the Colts saw three-wide sets, they’d still much rather test Hayden than Jennings. I’m no expert, but NFL quarterbacks and offensive co-ordinators actually are.
Eyeball test: From what I’ve seen, Jackson hasn’t been tested much, while teams throw willy-nilly at Hayden. Hayden holds up, but you gotta respect how much fear Jackson instills. Jennings does a great job shutting down slots, but doesn’t really scare any quarterbacks into throwing away from him. Except when he is totally outmuscled, I'd say Jennings is the best of the trio in man coverage, but his understanding of zones isn't quite up to where the other guys' are.
2) Hands: Hayden is a former wide receiver. Usually when someone is an ex-wide receiver, it’s because he didn’t have the hands for the position. That’s true of Hayden — I’d hate to see him play on offense — but he still has better hands than the other guys. Although the sample is small, it’s significant that Hayden got his hands on 15 passes (one out of every 4.47 he faced), Jennings on seven (4.71) and Jackson on five (7.60). And, he came down with three picks (one out of every 5.00 passes he got his hands on), Jackson had one (6.00) and Jennings was shut out.
It would appear that Hayden has so-so hands, but he looks like Welker compared to the other two.
Eyeball test: Hayden can catch — and will. Jackson has Roberto Duran’s hands of stone and Jennings hasn’t really seen enough exposure. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets the odd pick or two in the future. (3)
3) Run support/blitzing: All three of the Colts’ top corners have a reputation for supporting the run. But this one isn’t even close. Jackson had 76 tackles (2.00 for every pass he faced), while Hayden had 85 (1.27) and Jennings 21 (0.63). If you include assists, the numbers are even more profound (2.84 for Jackson, 1.75 for Hayden and 0.75 for Jennings).
Since opponents didn’t run right against the Colts significantly more often than they did left, it indicates that Jackson really stepped up in that department. Jennings’ far lower numbers are a combination of two things — he’s not on the field when most runs took place and he’s very tiny (185 pounds to 197 for Hayden and 198 for Jackson).
All are hard hitters — nobody doubts that. Back it up? Jackson and Jennings each forced a fumble, Hayden forced two. Corners don’t usually do that very often.
When it comes to blitzing, there is no comparison. Jackson had half a sack, three quarterback pressures and three stuffs, while Hayden and Jennings had just a stuff apiece.
Eyeball test: Okay, Jackson’s not exactly Bob Sanders, but he’s as close as you’ll see in a corner — dude is simply vicious, a total enforcer against the run. Jennings is more willing in run support and a better tackler technically than Hayden, but Hayden’s size and strength bring him up to even.
4) Conclusion: Nobody will even confuse him with Deion Sanders, but Jackson is a bona fide NFL No. 1 corner. He faces some of the best athletes in the world and consistently shuts them down, particularly on long routes. He has a big cushion, the safety help the Cover-2 defense is designed to provide and a vicious pass rush (4) helping him, but he’s definitely worth the price of admission when it comes to pass coverage.
His real value — again, something that is especially prized in Indy — is his skills as a tackler and blitzer. Compared to most NFL corners, Jackson looks like vintage John Lynch. He backs down from nothing, does the little things right and packs a tremendous wallop.
The backside of that is that he is as likely to get a pick as one of the cheerleaders.
Hayden gets similar numbers in coverage mainly because he’s covering lesser opponents. Still, he gets picked on and picked on and still comes up with impressive production. He is as solid a No. 2 as Jackson is a No. 1. And when it comes to the other stuff, he’s basically the opposite of Jackson. He’s not another linebacker on running plays, but at least his hands aren’t made of stone (perhaps wood, but at least not stone).
And Jennings? Well, he’s significantly better than either of the other two in coverage statistically — but only because he’s covering slot guys. Dude has all the skills in the world, but he’s about my wife’s height and weighs too little to play the big boys’ games outside. If everyone were the same size, Jennings would be among the best half-dozen corners in the league (certainly well ahead of Jackson and Hayden). But they ain’t. Jennings is awesome in the slot, but would be miscast outside. Look at it this way: Tom Hanks is a great actor, but he would be terrible as the lead in Conan the Barbarian. Covering Terrell Owens is playing Conan, not Forrest Gump.
The Colts actually have a very enviable trey of corners. Jackson is a legit No. 1 in the Cover-2. (5) His coverage skills are fine and his abilities as a run supporter, tackler and blitzer easily offset his liabilities as a ballhawk. Similarly, Hayden is a fine No. 2 and Jennings is excellent in the slot. There is a certain Zen quality to how well they mesh.
The monkey wrench in the plan is that Hayden becomes an unrestricted free agent after the season. With the Colts’ chronic cap woes and their history-proven lack of desire to re-sign all but their most important defensive free agents, they could be looking for a new No. 2. And don’t look at Jennings. Dude is awesome inside, but he’d be overpowered outside. He is staying put.
So, if Hayden is not re-signed, what are the options? The Colts drafted two corners in 2007, Daymieon (now Dante) Hughes and Michael Coe. Both are outside types, nothing like Jennings. Hughes (5101, 190, 4.65) is considered a guy who does everything perfectly, but lacks deep speed. In fact, he’s a lot like Jackson, though slower and with better hands (6) and less wow! against the run. He reminds me of Al Harris, the longtime star corner who everybody called too slow when he came out in 1998.
Coe (6005, 190, 4.53) — a coach’s son — is considered a cerebral player who transcends his physical skills. He’s a lot like former Colt Nick Harper; he seems to lack elite overall skills (7), but gets the job done.
There are other candidates, but they are unlikely to leapfrog Hughes and Coe. TJ Rushing has played a little at defensive back, but is the Colts’ primary return man and may not be able to hold onto that job. Keiwan Ratliff was a second-round pick by the Bengals way back in 2004; but has been cut by them and the Bucs since. While he has good ball skills and NFL starting experience, he’s the slowest of all the team’s corners and has strong moral convictions against not hurting (or even slowing down) anyone with his tackle attempts. That will not endear him to coaches any more than it will fans. Then there’s rookie Brandon Foster. He has some cover skills, good ball skills and the heart of a lion. (8) But at 5075, 182 (9), he makes Jennings look like the Incredible Hulk. While Foster will probably never see a snap outside, he could learn the slotsman’s arts from Jennings and perhaps eventually replace him. He would have to improve by a massive margin to do that.
The way I look at it is that Jackson is great at what he does, Hayden is very good at what he does and Jennings is awesome at what he does. If Hayden were to leave after 2008, Hughes or Coe could probably step in without too much of a beat missed. Either could also step in for Jackson (10), but you would notice a difference, especially in run support. But if either were to step in for Jennings, things could get ugly.
Notes:
1. This depends on what kind of corner you are. Slot guys are generally more explosive that split ends. I’d rather cover a guy who’ll get their catches, but rarely break out, rather than the guy who can leave you on the ground before he’s 40 yards away.
2. Often across the field, since most, if not all, are right-handed
3. Then look out, this kid can motor — he brought back his 10 career picks at Georgia for 194 yards and two scores.
4. Usually; when the Colts pass rush fell off like a well-thrown knuckleball last season, the corners appeared to step it up a little
5. He’s made for the Cover-2 and would find life much harder outside of it.
6. Actually, he has outstanding ball skills. In 51 games at cal, he had 15-344-4 in interceptions and 30 pass deflections.
7. As with Harper, Coe’s lack of elite closing burst scares me a little.
8. A real one, not the Detroit variety.
9. And he looked a lot smaller than that when he way playing.
10. Both Jackson and Jennings are signed through 2009.
Tuesday, July 1, 2008
Hagler's out ... what, already?
Tyjuan Hagler’s torn pectoral muscle will keep him out of action for at least two months and puts him in danger of missing the regular-season opener. While I would never wish ill on anyone — especially a fine young man like Hagler — it does give the team an opportunity to see what life after Tyjuan will be like.
Not convinced Hagler is going? Here’s the evidence:
• The Colts consider outside linebackers disposable. In the Polian era, the Colts have allowed outside linebackers Cato June, David Thornton, Mike Peterson and Marcus Washington to walk when they became free agents. Hagler will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the 2008 season and, although a competent starter, he’s not as good as any of those guys.
• Drafted in 2005, Hagler has played in just 21 of 48 possible regular-season games, missing the others due to injury. And he’s injured again.
• And, as they always do, the Colts have assembled a crew of potential replacements.
It’s those replacements we’ll see in the next two months. And they aren’t just fighting for the right to start the opener (if Hagler misses it), but also to be first in line for his spot when it empties for good in 2009.
The candidates are (in order):
• Clint Session (Numbers: 5111, 236, 4.57pd; 2007 stats: 16 tackles, 7 assists, 3 tackles for loss, 2-3-0 interceptions, 3 passes defensed, 1 forced fumble, 8 special-teams tackles, 2 special-teams assists with the Colts): A very gifted, surprisingly strong athlete who can lay a lick and keep up with all but the very fastest backs. Colts fans love this former fourth-round pick because of his two picks in his only start last year, but there are some issues that prevent him from being a shoo-in starter. Most of his strength is in his upper body and he can be ridden down too easily by blockers, and taken completely out of the play. Although he has speed and agility, Session is not polished in coverage and blows too many assignments. Worst of all, he has subpar play recognition. Not only does he get fooled by play-action and draws; but he also loses valuable steps making up his mind. Those are all things that he could improve upon — and Session is a pretty good player even considering his drawbacks — but I think Colts fans should think twice before anointing him starter.
• Phillip Wheeler (Numbers: 6017, 248, 4.76c/4.66pd; 46 tackles, 42 assists, 8.5 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks, 5 passes defensed, 2-4-0 fumble returns, 1 forced fumble, with Georgia Tech): A former defensive end who played both inside and outside linebacker in college, Wheeler looked much more comfortable in the middle. Still, he was very productive outside as well, showing great pursuit ability, a knack for creating turnovers and superb blitzing skills. Stronger and harder to block than Session, he’s not as fast but is just as quick and agile and is a more reliable tackler. He has much better instincts, but may take a while to adapt to the pro game because he’s not known as hard worker. Wheeler’s biggest liability is his relative stiffness in zone coverage. Despite that, I think Wheeler is a much better overall prospect than Session. But he’d be better off in the middle than on the strong side and his lack of polish and experience may keep him off the field, at least for now.
• Victor Worsley (Numbers: 6007, 234, 4.59pd; 2007 stats: 1 special-teams tackles, 2 special-teams assists with the Colts): Worsley, undrafted and twice cut, is the long shot, but shouldn’t be counted out. Another player who might be better off inside than out, Worsley has precious little strong side experience. But he probably has the best zone coverage skills of the trio and could emerge as a surprise starter (at least for the short term) if the other two guys fail.
Perhaps as interesting as the three names on the shortlist is one that isn’t on it. I think Jordan Senn and Kyle Shotwell are excused because they went to Portland State and Cal Poly-SLO and are thus probably too raw to be thrown into the fray. Senn’s safety-like size also works against him trying out for the strongside spot.
Conspicuous by his absence is Ramon Guzman. He’s a really good athlete who actually contributed a bit as a rookie (4 tackles, 1 assist, 1 fumble recovery, 8 special-teams tackles, 3 special-teams assists). You’d think he’d get a shot, but late last season, Guzman switched from outside linebacker to defensive end when injuries struck the line. It made sense. He’s got an awesome first step, has good pass-rush moves and is relentless in pursuit. He’s not that good in coverage and lacks real play recognition skills — he could well be better off as a third-down rusher than an outside linebacker. Polian even referred to him as an end in the offseason. But isn’t Guzman too small? He is small for an end by NFL standards (6021, 232, 4.60) but so is Robert Mathis and he makes an honest living. Sure, the Colt list Mathis as 6’2, 245, but I seem to remember him being 6’0, 227 (or some such) at his pro day. If he’s 235 on game days, I’d be truly surprised.
So does that mean Guzman is an end? Maybe. More likely, he’s a special-teamer (he’s good at that) who can fill in at either end or outside linebacker as necessary.
And this brings up another kettle of fish. Tony Dungy said that the Colts were going to bring pressure in ways they hadn’t before. Of course, the media jumped on it and assumed that meant Bob Sanders and his 4.35 forty would be blitzing more.
But maybe the Colts are thinking differently. Wasn’t Wheeler the best blitzing linebacker in the draft? Isn’t Guzman really nothing more than a bullet aimed at the quarterback’s chest?
Hmmm, makes ya think.
Not convinced Hagler is going? Here’s the evidence:
• The Colts consider outside linebackers disposable. In the Polian era, the Colts have allowed outside linebackers Cato June, David Thornton, Mike Peterson and Marcus Washington to walk when they became free agents. Hagler will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the 2008 season and, although a competent starter, he’s not as good as any of those guys.
• Drafted in 2005, Hagler has played in just 21 of 48 possible regular-season games, missing the others due to injury. And he’s injured again.
• And, as they always do, the Colts have assembled a crew of potential replacements.
It’s those replacements we’ll see in the next two months. And they aren’t just fighting for the right to start the opener (if Hagler misses it), but also to be first in line for his spot when it empties for good in 2009.
The candidates are (in order):
• Clint Session (Numbers: 5111, 236, 4.57pd; 2007 stats: 16 tackles, 7 assists, 3 tackles for loss, 2-3-0 interceptions, 3 passes defensed, 1 forced fumble, 8 special-teams tackles, 2 special-teams assists with the Colts): A very gifted, surprisingly strong athlete who can lay a lick and keep up with all but the very fastest backs. Colts fans love this former fourth-round pick because of his two picks in his only start last year, but there are some issues that prevent him from being a shoo-in starter. Most of his strength is in his upper body and he can be ridden down too easily by blockers, and taken completely out of the play. Although he has speed and agility, Session is not polished in coverage and blows too many assignments. Worst of all, he has subpar play recognition. Not only does he get fooled by play-action and draws; but he also loses valuable steps making up his mind. Those are all things that he could improve upon — and Session is a pretty good player even considering his drawbacks — but I think Colts fans should think twice before anointing him starter.
• Phillip Wheeler (Numbers: 6017, 248, 4.76c/4.66pd; 46 tackles, 42 assists, 8.5 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks, 5 passes defensed, 2-4-0 fumble returns, 1 forced fumble, with Georgia Tech): A former defensive end who played both inside and outside linebacker in college, Wheeler looked much more comfortable in the middle. Still, he was very productive outside as well, showing great pursuit ability, a knack for creating turnovers and superb blitzing skills. Stronger and harder to block than Session, he’s not as fast but is just as quick and agile and is a more reliable tackler. He has much better instincts, but may take a while to adapt to the pro game because he’s not known as hard worker. Wheeler’s biggest liability is his relative stiffness in zone coverage. Despite that, I think Wheeler is a much better overall prospect than Session. But he’d be better off in the middle than on the strong side and his lack of polish and experience may keep him off the field, at least for now.
• Victor Worsley (Numbers: 6007, 234, 4.59pd; 2007 stats: 1 special-teams tackles, 2 special-teams assists with the Colts): Worsley, undrafted and twice cut, is the long shot, but shouldn’t be counted out. Another player who might be better off inside than out, Worsley has precious little strong side experience. But he probably has the best zone coverage skills of the trio and could emerge as a surprise starter (at least for the short term) if the other two guys fail.
Perhaps as interesting as the three names on the shortlist is one that isn’t on it. I think Jordan Senn and Kyle Shotwell are excused because they went to Portland State and Cal Poly-SLO and are thus probably too raw to be thrown into the fray. Senn’s safety-like size also works against him trying out for the strongside spot.
Conspicuous by his absence is Ramon Guzman. He’s a really good athlete who actually contributed a bit as a rookie (4 tackles, 1 assist, 1 fumble recovery, 8 special-teams tackles, 3 special-teams assists). You’d think he’d get a shot, but late last season, Guzman switched from outside linebacker to defensive end when injuries struck the line. It made sense. He’s got an awesome first step, has good pass-rush moves and is relentless in pursuit. He’s not that good in coverage and lacks real play recognition skills — he could well be better off as a third-down rusher than an outside linebacker. Polian even referred to him as an end in the offseason. But isn’t Guzman too small? He is small for an end by NFL standards (6021, 232, 4.60) but so is Robert Mathis and he makes an honest living. Sure, the Colt list Mathis as 6’2, 245, but I seem to remember him being 6’0, 227 (or some such) at his pro day. If he’s 235 on game days, I’d be truly surprised.
So does that mean Guzman is an end? Maybe. More likely, he’s a special-teamer (he’s good at that) who can fill in at either end or outside linebacker as necessary.
And this brings up another kettle of fish. Tony Dungy said that the Colts were going to bring pressure in ways they hadn’t before. Of course, the media jumped on it and assumed that meant Bob Sanders and his 4.35 forty would be blitzing more.
But maybe the Colts are thinking differently. Wasn’t Wheeler the best blitzing linebacker in the draft? Isn’t Guzman really nothing more than a bullet aimed at the quarterback’s chest?
Hmmm, makes ya think.
Cornering the center market
If you knew the Colts signed a new player off waivers, what position do you think he’d play? Those of you who said anything but center are wrong, but honest. Those of you who said center were peeking.
Yeah, the newest Colt is a center despite the fact the team has the best center in the business and drafted no fewer than three centers just a few weeks ago. And the funny thing is that the new guy actually has a decent shot at making the team.
Doug Datish (6041, 302, 5.13c in 2007) is best known as the guy who took over from the great Nick Mangold in the middle of Ohio State’s vaunted offensive line. But he actually played all over the line for the Buckeyes — 14 starts at center, 12 at left tackle and nine at left guard.
Datish’s defining characteristic is intelligence — and his quick wit. He earned a degree in history and began graduate school while playing at the highest level in the toughest competition of college football. And he also brings that intelligence (mixed with top instincts) to the field. He understands defenses, picks up stunts and blitzes adroitly and always seemed to keep his linemates in their proper positions.
He’s not considered a great athlete, but has good strength and leverage — factors that are increased by his excellent form, knee bend and hand use. He had very good stats at OSU at far as sacks allowed, pancakes, downfield blocks and touchdown blocks were concerned and definitely passed the eyeball test as a player.
But his so-so numbers at the combine (1) (not to mention a well-publicized belly flab at the Senior Bowl weigh-in) and his lack of natural size led to him being drafted late. He was chosen in the sixth round by the Falcons.
The Falcons had high hopes for him, but it didn’t really work out. At the beginning of training camp, he dislocated a finger on his left hand. It required surgery, but he continued to play with a cast. A week later, he broke a bone in his right wrist. “I couldn't play with two casts, so they threw me on IR,” Datish said. “I hadn't missed a game my whole life, so to miss a whole year was pretty bad.” It wiped out his whole rookie year. (2)
And then, after mini-camp, Atlanta released him. The team didn’t give a reason — unlike when they cut former second-round cornerback Jimmy Williams who they claimed had ballooned to 236 pounds (3) — but many attributed it to the team’s desire to get bigger on the offensive line.
Although the Falcons’ line is much maligned, it’s actually pretty strong — at least on the inside. (4) The starters — from left to right, Justin Blalock, Todd McClure and Kynan Forney — are all very solid. And the top reserve prospects (Alex Stepanovich, D’Anthony Batiste, Quinn Ojinnaka and Ben Wilkerson) started a combined 15 NFL games last year — and all of them are bigger and stronger than Datish.
On the Colts, however, Datish is greeted with a more welcoming coaching staff and philosophy, and less competition. Center Jeff Saturday is an awesome starter (though probably in his final year with the team) and Ryan Lilja is very solid at left guard, but the rest of the interior line is up in the air. Veteran reserve tackle Charlie Johnson is competing with draft pick Mike Pollak for the starting slot at right guard, but neither is a sure thing. (5) The rest of the competition will come from two second-day draft picks and a few street free agents.
Right now, Datish appears to be little more than a name on the depth chart. But he does have a most of the qualities the Colts prize most highly — intelligence, technique, a non-stop motor and versatility. And he has history on his side. Keep in mind that both Saturday and Lilja were undrafted free agents who were cut by other teams. (6) And the Colts have cut many offensive linemen they actually have drafted. (7)
Notes:
1. The 31 reps were nice, but the 26-inch vertical and 8’6 long jump impressed nobody
2. Unable to do much with his hands, he spent the season working on his leg strength
3. The new regime in Atlanta seems to be particularly hard on players acquired from the Bobby Petrino regime — but Williams is no surprise, nobody likes a fat DB
4. Things aren’t so cheery on the outside — journeyman Todd Weiner is the guy to beat on the right side and second first-round pick Sam Baker is the favorite on the left side. If he doesn’t work out, heavy-footed Chris Redman or rookie Matt Ryan will have their backside protected by guys with names like Renardo Foster, Terrance Pennington or Harvey “Barbie” Dahl.
5. My gut says Johnson loses and gets cut
6. Saturday by Baltimore and Lilja by KC
7. Remember Michael Toudouze (5th round, 2006), Dylan Gandy (3rd!, 2005), Robert Hunt (6th, 2005), Steve Sciullo (4th, 2003), Makoa Frietas (6th, 2003), Matt Johnson (5th, 2000) and Aaron Taylor (6th, 1998)? All of them were drafted in the Polian era and all were cut. Although Toudouze was brought back, he doesn’t look like a lock to make the team at this point. That’s seven draft picks cut, while only seven (Tony Ugoh, Charlie Johnson, Jake Scott, Ryan Diem, Rich DeMulling, Brandon Burlsworth and Steve McKinney) made it through a run without being cut. Before you say anything, I know DeMulling was cut, but that was in his second tour with the Colts after a highly paid hiatus in Detroit and a steller first run; and that Burlsworth died before he could play a down, but I have no doubt he would have been a very effective starter. So, getting back to the argument at hand, it can be said that if you are an offensive lineman drafted by the Colts, you have about a fifty-fifty chance of being a real contributor (the ratio is even harsher on second-day picks). Consequently, no team presents a better chance to undrafted free agents and other teams’ rejects.
Yeah, the newest Colt is a center despite the fact the team has the best center in the business and drafted no fewer than three centers just a few weeks ago. And the funny thing is that the new guy actually has a decent shot at making the team.
Doug Datish (6041, 302, 5.13c in 2007) is best known as the guy who took over from the great Nick Mangold in the middle of Ohio State’s vaunted offensive line. But he actually played all over the line for the Buckeyes — 14 starts at center, 12 at left tackle and nine at left guard.
Datish’s defining characteristic is intelligence — and his quick wit. He earned a degree in history and began graduate school while playing at the highest level in the toughest competition of college football. And he also brings that intelligence (mixed with top instincts) to the field. He understands defenses, picks up stunts and blitzes adroitly and always seemed to keep his linemates in their proper positions.
He’s not considered a great athlete, but has good strength and leverage — factors that are increased by his excellent form, knee bend and hand use. He had very good stats at OSU at far as sacks allowed, pancakes, downfield blocks and touchdown blocks were concerned and definitely passed the eyeball test as a player.
But his so-so numbers at the combine (1) (not to mention a well-publicized belly flab at the Senior Bowl weigh-in) and his lack of natural size led to him being drafted late. He was chosen in the sixth round by the Falcons.
The Falcons had high hopes for him, but it didn’t really work out. At the beginning of training camp, he dislocated a finger on his left hand. It required surgery, but he continued to play with a cast. A week later, he broke a bone in his right wrist. “I couldn't play with two casts, so they threw me on IR,” Datish said. “I hadn't missed a game my whole life, so to miss a whole year was pretty bad.” It wiped out his whole rookie year. (2)
And then, after mini-camp, Atlanta released him. The team didn’t give a reason — unlike when they cut former second-round cornerback Jimmy Williams who they claimed had ballooned to 236 pounds (3) — but many attributed it to the team’s desire to get bigger on the offensive line.
Although the Falcons’ line is much maligned, it’s actually pretty strong — at least on the inside. (4) The starters — from left to right, Justin Blalock, Todd McClure and Kynan Forney — are all very solid. And the top reserve prospects (Alex Stepanovich, D’Anthony Batiste, Quinn Ojinnaka and Ben Wilkerson) started a combined 15 NFL games last year — and all of them are bigger and stronger than Datish.
On the Colts, however, Datish is greeted with a more welcoming coaching staff and philosophy, and less competition. Center Jeff Saturday is an awesome starter (though probably in his final year with the team) and Ryan Lilja is very solid at left guard, but the rest of the interior line is up in the air. Veteran reserve tackle Charlie Johnson is competing with draft pick Mike Pollak for the starting slot at right guard, but neither is a sure thing. (5) The rest of the competition will come from two second-day draft picks and a few street free agents.
Right now, Datish appears to be little more than a name on the depth chart. But he does have a most of the qualities the Colts prize most highly — intelligence, technique, a non-stop motor and versatility. And he has history on his side. Keep in mind that both Saturday and Lilja were undrafted free agents who were cut by other teams. (6) And the Colts have cut many offensive linemen they actually have drafted. (7)
Notes:
1. The 31 reps were nice, but the 26-inch vertical and 8’6 long jump impressed nobody
2. Unable to do much with his hands, he spent the season working on his leg strength
3. The new regime in Atlanta seems to be particularly hard on players acquired from the Bobby Petrino regime — but Williams is no surprise, nobody likes a fat DB
4. Things aren’t so cheery on the outside — journeyman Todd Weiner is the guy to beat on the right side and second first-round pick Sam Baker is the favorite on the left side. If he doesn’t work out, heavy-footed Chris Redman or rookie Matt Ryan will have their backside protected by guys with names like Renardo Foster, Terrance Pennington or Harvey “Barbie” Dahl.
5. My gut says Johnson loses and gets cut
6. Saturday by Baltimore and Lilja by KC
7. Remember Michael Toudouze (5th round, 2006), Dylan Gandy (3rd!, 2005), Robert Hunt (6th, 2005), Steve Sciullo (4th, 2003), Makoa Frietas (6th, 2003), Matt Johnson (5th, 2000) and Aaron Taylor (6th, 1998)? All of them were drafted in the Polian era and all were cut. Although Toudouze was brought back, he doesn’t look like a lock to make the team at this point. That’s seven draft picks cut, while only seven (Tony Ugoh, Charlie Johnson, Jake Scott, Ryan Diem, Rich DeMulling, Brandon Burlsworth and Steve McKinney) made it through a run without being cut. Before you say anything, I know DeMulling was cut, but that was in his second tour with the Colts after a highly paid hiatus in Detroit and a steller first run; and that Burlsworth died before he could play a down, but I have no doubt he would have been a very effective starter. So, getting back to the argument at hand, it can be said that if you are an offensive lineman drafted by the Colts, you have about a fifty-fifty chance of being a real contributor (the ratio is even harsher on second-day picks). Consequently, no team presents a better chance to undrafted free agents and other teams’ rejects.
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