Back in offseason form

Now that the offseason has unexpectedly arrived, I thought it was time to dust off Coltplay and start filing again. Some thoughts:

• In his post-game comments, Bill Polian frequently commented about what an excellent job the Colts defense (especially pass defense) did against the Chargers. That tells me that the first-round draft pick will almost certainly be on offense.

• And it is unlikely to be a guard or center. Polian stressed how well Mike Pollak and Jamey Richard played all year and indicated that the only problems they had came from a lack of familiarity with the league and their teammates. Even if Jeff Saturday is allowed to leave as a free agent (why do you think they drafted three centers last year?), they team will have Pollak, Richard, Charlie Johnson and, after he returns from an injury that cost him the entire 2008 season, Ryan Lilja. That’s four starting-quality players for three spots. Fellow 2008 draft pick Steve Justice will also be in the mix, as will Dan Federkiel, although to a lesser extent. The arrow is pointed up on both Pollak and Richard, with Richard in particular showing he has a bright NFL future. There may well be an interior lineman selected by the Colts in 2009, but almost certainly not on the first day.

• The top pick could be a back. Polian cursed the lack of production from the running game (as well he should have, it was terrible all year) and even called Joseph Addai out by name. Perhaps more telling is that on 3rd-and-1 at the San Diego 38 with the game tied in the second quarter, the Colts chose to run a reverse with tight end Dallas Clark rather than trust one of their halfbacks. So if Addai isn’t the answer, who is? Polian loves Dominic Rhodes, but he played no better than Addai this season, is an old 30 and is also an unrestricted free agent. Colts fans love Mike Hart, but he was slow before he tore his ACL this year. No matter how well he rehabs, I don’t think it would be wise to depend on him at this point. The other backs on the roster are really spare parts.

• Or it could be a receiver. As is common knowledge, Marvin Harrison is nearing the end of his career and is scheduled to make $13.4 million next season. That’s a ridiculous amount of money for a player unlikely to retain a starting position. If he were to retire or otherwise leave the team, there would be just two reliable receivers — Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez — on the roster. Past history has indicated that the Colts philosophy has been to give Peyton Manning as many weapons as possible, so a first-day pick at this position could be looming.

• Other draft priorities? Offensive tackle, as Ryan Diem makes a lot of money and has been declining, while Tony Ugoh is talented but gives an inconsistent effort. Charlie Johnson can play there in a pinch, but they need a big, young guy to develop. Defensive tackle because we all saw how undersized and undertalented the team was at that spot last season. Cornerbacks because neither Dante Hughes nor Michael Coe looks like he has much of a future, and the Colts always draft corners. A dedicated return man would be nice, as will be the usual long-range linebacker prospects and marginally size pass rushers.

• Barring something truly unforeseen, I’m sure Antonio Johnson has sewn up a starting spot on next year’s team.

• Of the Colts’ unrestricted free agents, here are my early predictions (with their percent chance of leaving):

Matt Giordano (90) They won’t pay to keep their No. 4 safety
Tyjuan Hagler (90) Ty’s a good player, but there are no starting spots open, and the Colts consider outside linebackers disposable
Kelvin Hayden (10) They will pay to keep their best corner, and he is a Polian favorite
Keiwan Ratliff (35) He’s a guy you always want to replace, but he stepped up in 2008 when others faltered
Darrell Reid (20) Offers little at DT, but is a special-teams dynamo and a fan favorite
Dominic Rhodes (50) Polian loves him, but he’s about done
Jeff Saturday (75) His replacements are in house and he’ll get big offers elsewhere, but losing him would still be a big blow
Hunter Smith (20) This could be the end of Hunter the Punter as some say, but I doubt it — he’s too valuable as a holder
Josh Thomas (50) Here’s another guy they keep trying to replace, but he keep playing better than his would-be successors

• The Colts have neither gained nor lost any draft picks this year due to trades. Supplemental picks may be few and far between as the only significant free agents the Colts lost last year were Jake Scott and Ben Utecht . I'm thinking a fouth and a sixth.