Cornerbacks are strange creatures. You usually only hear about them when they make an interception or they get burned. Since the Colts’ corners rarely pick off any passes (the top three guys combined for four picks last year), the usually only get mentioned when things go bad.
Each of the Colts’ top three corners has his detractors, but — the dearth of interceptions notwithstanding — they generally get the job done. Here’s Coltplay’s look at how the three stack up against one another.
1) Pass coverage: Using stats provided by ESPN, we can compare how well each corner did when thrown at in 2007. The numbers are: times thrown at-completions allowed-yards allowed (completion percentage allowed/yards allowed per time thrown at).
Overall
Marlin Jackson 38-25-271 (65.79/7.13)
Kelvin Hayden 67-44-477 (65.67/7.12)
Tim Jennings 33-19-207 (57.58/6.27)
Short (ie. the target was 10 yards or less past the line of scrimmage)
Marlin Jackson 24-19-163 (79.17/6.79)
Kelvin Hayden 46-33-246 (71.74/5.35)
Tim Jennings 19-13-83 (68.42/4.37)
Medium (11-20 yards)
Marlin Jackson 12-5-83 (41.67/6.92)
Kelvin Hayden 14-8-107 (57.14/7.64)
Tim Jennings 11-5-91 (45.45/8.27)
Long (21-30 yards)
Marlin Jackson 2-1-25 (50.00/12.50)
Kelvin Hayden 4-1-35 (25.00/8.75)
Tim Jennings 1-0-0 (00.00/00.00)
Bomb (more than 30 yards)
Marlin Jackson 0-0-0 (00.00/00.00)
Kelvin Hayden 3-2-89 (66.67/29.67)
Tim Jennings 2-1-33 (50.00/16.50)
Interesting numbers when you consider the positions. Jackson normally covers the flanker, Hayden the split end and Jennings the slot guy. While flankers are virtually always better players than split ends, split ends aren’t always better than slot guys — would you rather cover Wes Welker or Donté Stallworth? Andre Davis or Kevin Walter? (1) — so I would consider Jackson’s job in coverage the most difficult by some margin, with Hayden’s only slightly harder than Jennings if it’s even any harder at all.
That said, Jackson and Hayden had remarkably similar overall coverage averages — completion percentages only 0.22 percent apart, yards per attempt just 0.013 yards (less than half an inch) different.
Interestingly, Hayden put up far better numbers short, while Jackson, though slower, was better long.
I attribute that discrepancy to the fact that Jackson (covering the Randy Mosses of the world) left a bigger cushion than Hayden. Hayden, conversely, played closer, which left him a bit more vulnerable to deep patterns.
Jennings showed better overall numbers than either outside guy, especially short. That’s actually a huge surprise to me because slot corners usually play against the quickest, hardest-to-cover-in-a-short-zone guys who make their bread and butter on short routes hoping to break free. Jennings’ numbers then are a testament to exactly how fast (4.32 forty as compared to Hayden’s 4.48 and Jackson’s 4.52) and quick (1.48 ten as compared to Hayden and Jackson who both ran 1.56) he really is.
Of course, part of that is also the fact that he leaves the smallest cushion of them all. Consequently, Jennings’ numbers fall somewhere in between Jackson’s and Hayden’s when it comes to longer routes.
Perhaps even more tellingly than the averages, is the number of times each player was targeted by opposing passers. Despite facing the opposing team’s best receiver most often, Jackson only saw 38 passes thrown his way all season. Compare that to Hayden, who was targeted 67 times. That’s 76.32 percent more often — no accident. In fact, opposing quarterbacks only threw at Jackson five times more often than they did Jennings (33), who was on the field much less often. When it came to passes 21 or more yards downfield, Jackson saw two, Jennings saw three and Hayden saw seven. When you bring it up to more than 30 yards, Hayden was tested three times, Jennings twice and Jackson not at all.
NFL quarterbacks were so unwilling to test Jackson that they would throw to their second- or third-best receivers (2) almost twice as often. Although their overall stats are similar, NFL quarterbacks were almost twice as likely to take their chances against Hayden than they were against Jackson. And when you factor in how often the Colts saw three-wide sets, they’d still much rather test Hayden than Jennings. I’m no expert, but NFL quarterbacks and offensive co-ordinators actually are.
Eyeball test: From what I’ve seen, Jackson hasn’t been tested much, while teams throw willy-nilly at Hayden. Hayden holds up, but you gotta respect how much fear Jackson instills. Jennings does a great job shutting down slots, but doesn’t really scare any quarterbacks into throwing away from him. Except when he is totally outmuscled, I'd say Jennings is the best of the trio in man coverage, but his understanding of zones isn't quite up to where the other guys' are.
2) Hands: Hayden is a former wide receiver. Usually when someone is an ex-wide receiver, it’s because he didn’t have the hands for the position. That’s true of Hayden — I’d hate to see him play on offense — but he still has better hands than the other guys. Although the sample is small, it’s significant that Hayden got his hands on 15 passes (one out of every 4.47 he faced), Jennings on seven (4.71) and Jackson on five (7.60). And, he came down with three picks (one out of every 5.00 passes he got his hands on), Jackson had one (6.00) and Jennings was shut out.
It would appear that Hayden has so-so hands, but he looks like Welker compared to the other two.
Eyeball test: Hayden can catch — and will. Jackson has Roberto Duran’s hands of stone and Jennings hasn’t really seen enough exposure. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets the odd pick or two in the future. (3)
3) Run support/blitzing: All three of the Colts’ top corners have a reputation for supporting the run. But this one isn’t even close. Jackson had 76 tackles (2.00 for every pass he faced), while Hayden had 85 (1.27) and Jennings 21 (0.63). If you include assists, the numbers are even more profound (2.84 for Jackson, 1.75 for Hayden and 0.75 for Jennings).
Since opponents didn’t run right against the Colts significantly more often than they did left, it indicates that Jackson really stepped up in that department. Jennings’ far lower numbers are a combination of two things — he’s not on the field when most runs took place and he’s very tiny (185 pounds to 197 for Hayden and 198 for Jackson).
All are hard hitters — nobody doubts that. Back it up? Jackson and Jennings each forced a fumble, Hayden forced two. Corners don’t usually do that very often.
When it comes to blitzing, there is no comparison. Jackson had half a sack, three quarterback pressures and three stuffs, while Hayden and Jennings had just a stuff apiece.
Eyeball test: Okay, Jackson’s not exactly Bob Sanders, but he’s as close as you’ll see in a corner — dude is simply vicious, a total enforcer against the run. Jennings is more willing in run support and a better tackler technically than Hayden, but Hayden’s size and strength bring him up to even.
4) Conclusion: Nobody will even confuse him with Deion Sanders, but Jackson is a bona fide NFL No. 1 corner. He faces some of the best athletes in the world and consistently shuts them down, particularly on long routes. He has a big cushion, the safety help the Cover-2 defense is designed to provide and a vicious pass rush (4) helping him, but he’s definitely worth the price of admission when it comes to pass coverage.
His real value — again, something that is especially prized in Indy — is his skills as a tackler and blitzer. Compared to most NFL corners, Jackson looks like vintage John Lynch. He backs down from nothing, does the little things right and packs a tremendous wallop.
The backside of that is that he is as likely to get a pick as one of the cheerleaders.
Hayden gets similar numbers in coverage mainly because he’s covering lesser opponents. Still, he gets picked on and picked on and still comes up with impressive production. He is as solid a No. 2 as Jackson is a No. 1. And when it comes to the other stuff, he’s basically the opposite of Jackson. He’s not another linebacker on running plays, but at least his hands aren’t made of stone (perhaps wood, but at least not stone).
And Jennings? Well, he’s significantly better than either of the other two in coverage statistically — but only because he’s covering slot guys. Dude has all the skills in the world, but he’s about my wife’s height and weighs too little to play the big boys’ games outside. If everyone were the same size, Jennings would be among the best half-dozen corners in the league (certainly well ahead of Jackson and Hayden). But they ain’t. Jennings is awesome in the slot, but would be miscast outside. Look at it this way: Tom Hanks is a great actor, but he would be terrible as the lead in Conan the Barbarian. Covering Terrell Owens is playing Conan, not Forrest Gump.
The Colts actually have a very enviable trey of corners. Jackson is a legit No. 1 in the Cover-2. (5) His coverage skills are fine and his abilities as a run supporter, tackler and blitzer easily offset his liabilities as a ballhawk. Similarly, Hayden is a fine No. 2 and Jennings is excellent in the slot. There is a certain Zen quality to how well they mesh.
The monkey wrench in the plan is that Hayden becomes an unrestricted free agent after the season. With the Colts’ chronic cap woes and their history-proven lack of desire to re-sign all but their most important defensive free agents, they could be looking for a new No. 2. And don’t look at Jennings. Dude is awesome inside, but he’d be overpowered outside. He is staying put.
So, if Hayden is not re-signed, what are the options? The Colts drafted two corners in 2007, Daymieon (now Dante) Hughes and Michael Coe. Both are outside types, nothing like Jennings. Hughes (5101, 190, 4.65) is considered a guy who does everything perfectly, but lacks deep speed. In fact, he’s a lot like Jackson, though slower and with better hands (6) and less wow! against the run. He reminds me of Al Harris, the longtime star corner who everybody called too slow when he came out in 1998.
Coe (6005, 190, 4.53) — a coach’s son — is considered a cerebral player who transcends his physical skills. He’s a lot like former Colt Nick Harper; he seems to lack elite overall skills (7), but gets the job done.
There are other candidates, but they are unlikely to leapfrog Hughes and Coe. TJ Rushing has played a little at defensive back, but is the Colts’ primary return man and may not be able to hold onto that job. Keiwan Ratliff was a second-round pick by the Bengals way back in 2004; but has been cut by them and the Bucs since. While he has good ball skills and NFL starting experience, he’s the slowest of all the team’s corners and has strong moral convictions against not hurting (or even slowing down) anyone with his tackle attempts. That will not endear him to coaches any more than it will fans. Then there’s rookie Brandon Foster. He has some cover skills, good ball skills and the heart of a lion. (8) But at 5075, 182 (9), he makes Jennings look like the Incredible Hulk. While Foster will probably never see a snap outside, he could learn the slotsman’s arts from Jennings and perhaps eventually replace him. He would have to improve by a massive margin to do that.
The way I look at it is that Jackson is great at what he does, Hayden is very good at what he does and Jennings is awesome at what he does. If Hayden were to leave after 2008, Hughes or Coe could probably step in without too much of a beat missed. Either could also step in for Jackson (10), but you would notice a difference, especially in run support. But if either were to step in for Jennings, things could get ugly.
Notes:
1. This depends on what kind of corner you are. Slot guys are generally more explosive that split ends. I’d rather cover a guy who’ll get their catches, but rarely break out, rather than the guy who can leave you on the ground before he’s 40 yards away.
2. Often across the field, since most, if not all, are right-handed
3. Then look out, this kid can motor — he brought back his 10 career picks at Georgia for 194 yards and two scores.
4. Usually; when the Colts pass rush fell off like a well-thrown knuckleball last season, the corners appeared to step it up a little
5. He’s made for the Cover-2 and would find life much harder outside of it.
6. Actually, he has outstanding ball skills. In 51 games at cal, he had 15-344-4 in interceptions and 30 pass deflections.
7. As with Harper, Coe’s lack of elite closing burst scares me a little.
8. A real one, not the Detroit variety.
9. And he looked a lot smaller than that when he way playing.
10. Both Jackson and Jennings are signed through 2009.
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