Complications

Just after I shoot my mouth off about how the Colts will draft an offensive lineman first, Bill Polian throws a little doubt in there.

The Colts worked out Tavares Gooden ILB Miami (6012, 234, 4.62c/4.57pd) — a player very much worth their top pick. He's an awesome athlete who makes plays all over the field, is adept in coverage, an explosive wrap-up tackler and ... actually, it's easier to ennumerate what's wrong with him than what's right:

1. Doesn't bring much size: Not a problem for the Colts
2. Not a natural pass-rusher: So? The Colts blitz their linebackers less often than any other team in the NFL
3. Can be fooled on fakes and misdirection: Few can't be; good coaching should solve this
4. Has history of hip and shoulder injuries and some have questioned his toughness: Now those are real problems

Many teams are, according to the media, projecting him outside; but that would be a huge mistake. At Miami, Gooden was a decent OLB, but a star at ILB.

If the Colts are satisfied he's tough enough, Gooden could well be their top pick. Still, I;d rather see that lineman.

They also looked at Pierre Garcon WR Mount Union (5117, 210, 4.42). He's big, strong, fast and superproductive (202-3,363-47 receiving, 19-176-4 rushing and 20-491-1 kick returns in three seasons). The problem is that those three seasons occcured at a D3 school, where he got by on sheer athleticism, and never learned to run proper routes, square his cuts or beat consistent jams. He has the tools to be an NFL receiver — though he may be a bit of a long strider to gain consistent separation from the slot — but the learning curve will be quite a hump.

About frickin' time

The Colts today announced they re-signed safety Matt Giordano. They didn't give any details about the new contract, but I hope it's for a few years at least.

Lookie-loos

Here's a look at the players I've found out the Colts have shown an interest in; listed by the round the Internet "experts" predict they'll be drafted:

QB
7th/Bernard Morris QB Marshall (6030, 223, 4.68c/4.61pd)
7th/Blake Mitchell QB South Carolina (6022, 207, 4.78)
UDFA/Craig Hormann QB Columbia (6041, 228, 5.03)
UDFA/Mark Nicolet QB Hillsdale (6013, 220, 4.84)
RB
4th/Jalen Parmele HB Toledo (5114, 224, 4.47)
5th/Thomas Brown HB Georgia (5083, 204, 4.51c/4.42pd)
7th/Alley Broussard HB Missouri Southern State (6002, 235, 4.75pd)
UDFA/Justin Beaver HB Wisconsin-Whitewater (5081, 196, 4.41)
UDFA/Kareem Huggins HB Hofstra (5087, 185, 4.47)
UDFA/Allen Ervin HB Lambuth (5106, 226, e4.55)
WR
2nd/Mario Manningham WR Michigan (5116, 181, 4.59c/4.42pd)
2nd/Donnie Avery WR Houston (5110, 192, 4.43c/4.33pd)
3rd/Eddie Royal WR Virginia Tech (5095, 184, 4.39)
5th/Marcus Smith WR New Mexico (6013, 221, 4.50c/4.54pd)
6th/Luke Swan WR Wisconsin (5117, 195, 4.59)
UDFA/Jayson Foster WR Georgia Southern (5071, 169, 4.41)
UDFA/Pierre Garcon WR Mount Union (5117, 210, 4.42pd)
UDFA/James Banks WR Carson-Newman (6025, 210, 4.58)
UDFA/Tommy Ellingworth WR Augustana (5101, 183, 4.42)
TE
5th/Joey Haynos TE Maryland (6075, 259, 4.87c/4.79pd)
7th/Michael Peterson TE Northwest Missouri State (6021, 247, 4.59)
UDFA/Paul Cleaver TE New Mexico State (6035, 243, 4.63)
UDFA/Joe Reitz TE Western Michigan (6061, 261, e4.85)
OL
2nd/Gosder Cherilus T Boston College (6063, 314, 5.14c/5.00pd)
2nd/John Greco T Toledo (6046, 305, 5.31c/5.16pd)
3rd/Anthony Collins T Kansas (6055, 317, 5.54c/5.35pd)
7th/Kerry Brown G Appalachian State (6053, 308, 5.38)
7th/Mackenzy Bernardeau G Bentley (6041, 306, 5.25pd)
UDFA/Mike Martinez C New Mexico State (6037, 335, e5.30)
UDFA/Shawn McMakin G Hofstra (6030, 287, e5.25)
DL
3rd/Marcus Howard DE Georgia (6004, 237, 4.47c)
6th/Titus Brown DE Mississippi State (6024, 246, 4.86c/4,82pd)
6th/Jeremy Geathers DE UNLV (6021, 256, 4.97c/4.74pd)
7th/Jameel McClain DE Syracuse (6006, 249, 4.73pd)
7th/Andy Studebaker DE Wheaton College (6030, 251, 4.61)
UDFA/Curtis Johnson DE Clark-Atlanta (6025, 242, 4.69c/4.60pd)
UDFA/Dan Davis DT Connecticut (6014, 287, 4.96)
UDFA/Shemiah LeGrande DT Hofstra (6001, 288, e5.00)
UDFA/Mike Czerwien DE Waynesburg (5080, 225, e4.55)
LB
3rd/Tavares Gooden ILB Miami (6012, 234, 4.62c/4.57pd)
4th/Jo-Lonn Dunbar ILB Boston College (6004, 231, 4.79c/4.85pd)
5th/Joe Mays ILB North Dakota State (5110, 245, 4.87)
6th/Weston Dacus ILB Arkansas (6011, 237, 4.60)
6th/Danny Lansanah ILB Connecticut (6005, 251, 4.72)
7th/Jon Banks OLB Iowa State (6024, 220, 4.76)
UDFA/Jordan Senn OLB Portland State (5114, 224, 4.53)
UDFA/Jonna Lee ILB Charleston Southern (6011, 243, e4.85)
UDFA/Gian Villante ILB Hofstra (6016, 234, 4.64)
DB
4th/Tyrell Johnson SS Arkansas State (5117, 207, 4.41)
5th/Jack Williams CB Kent State (5090, 186, 4.43c/4.32pd)
UFDA/Joe Fields FS Syracuse (6002, 205, e4.60)
UFDA/Curtis Cutts FS Central Michigan (5117, 216, 4.62):
UFDA/Dowayne Davis SS Syracuse (5113, 202, 4.46)
ST
7th/Piotr Czech K Wagner College (6044, 212)
UFDA/Dan Zeidman P Idaho State (6003, 205, 4.78)

Linemen are coming

A knowledgeable friend told me the other day he agreed with me that the Colts’ top pick will be an offensive lineman. For those not yet on board, here are my reasons:

They lost Jake Scott: Long derided as the team’s fifth-best lineman, he was still very good. The Titans did not pay Scott just short of $20 million because he’s a bad player. Never truly dominant, but always competent, (1) Scott gave an honest day’s work and always played with intelligence and surprising leg drive. His ability to slide over to right tackle when necessary will also be missed.
Dylan Gandy may not be the answer: People have already penciled him in as a starter, but there’s a reason Scott kept this 2005 fourth-rounder on the bench for three years (2) — he was a better player. Gandy is an NFL quality pass protector (2.5 sacks allowed and one hold in 14 starts), but is nowhere near Scott’s equal as a run blocker. And that’s really the part of the offensive line that needs improvement. Besides, he's still an unsigned restricted free agent.
There’s little depth: There’s been some talk about moving Charlie Johnson from tackle to compete with Gandy, but there’s no guarantee Johnson can play any better inside than outside, and it would further subtract from already shaky depth at tackle. (3) The Colts also have Patrick Ross and Mike Elgin — two salt-of-the-Earth types who lack athleticism and size — and Tala Esera — a big guy with slow reflexes — inside. None of them appear to be the answer. (4)
Neither of the team’s starting tackles have been durable: Left tackle Tony Ugoh missed five games last year due to injury, but I’ll cut him a break because he was a rookie and was pretty injury-resistant in college. Right tackle Ryan Diem, though, seems to get injured every year, missing 20 games in seven seasons; and each injury seems to sap him just a little more. Scott was the team’s third-best tackle and he’s gone. Johnson’s the fourth best (5) and people are talking about plugging him inside.
Free agency and the cap are looming: Jeff Saturday may still be a top center, but he’s a free agent after next season. He’ll be 34 years old, and coming off a season in which he had a $4,684,667 salary. Diem is signed thru 2011, but his salaries will be $6,050,000 in 2009, $4,950,000 in 2010 and $5,400,000 in 2011 — perhaps more than he’s worth if injuries continue to mount. He’s four years younger than Saturday, but may have less tread left on his tires.
The team is built around offense: All those top picks spent on offense (like Ugoh, Dallas Clark, Anthony Gonzalez and Reggie Wayne) when the fans were screaming for defense were not actually surprises if you know Bill Polian’s philosophy. The team is built around Peyton Manning; to succeed, you get Manning targets and protection. And don’t think Manning doesn’t have a say in things. If a quarterback can wave off his coach’s decision to send in the punting unit on national television, you know he has input in the war room.

In other news, the Colts also looked at two more college players:

Gian Villante ILB Hofstra (6016, 234, 4.64): All-Colonial tackling machine is a monster between the tackles, not a bad blitzer and a crunching hitter. Would likely get audition on specials.
Joe Reitz TE Western Michigan (6061, 261, e4.85): The Colts were one of a few teams to work out this athletic power forward with no football experience after high school. One assumes he projects as a tight end. He’s an Indy native with a 3.73 GPA in Finance. Nice scoring touch, will fight for rebounds.

Notes:
1. Except that horrible playoff game against Pittsburgh when he was undone by hidden interior blitzes. In his defense, though, Ryan Lilja was just as bad.
2. When Gandy did start, it was usually because Scott was playing tackle.
3. The other tackles at present are Daniel Federkeil, Michael Toudouze and Corey Hilliard.
4. I could be wrong. Who ever thought undersized, undrafted Saturday would have a future when he arrived in Indy after he’d already been cut by the Ravens?
5. And it was a long drop from Scott to Johnson.

Tiny college prospect

I know the Colts scour the nation (1) for small-school talent, but Hillsdale College? It's a 1,300 student liberal arts college whose best-known alum was talented director Bob Clark (2). Not really a football powerhouse, its most famous grad was Chester Marcol, the noted kicker from the 70s. Oh, and there was another worth mentioning. In 1964, the 49ers used the first pick of the ninth round to select Hillsdale guard Howard Mudd. Now you know why the Colts are there.

But the player they are looking at is not an o-lineman for Mudd to mold. Mark Nicolet (6013, 220, 4.84) is a short, but strong-armed and atheletic quarterback. After a strong senior season (371-240-3,335-31-8 passing, 76-206-2 rushing, 3-12-0 receiving and one punt for 44 yards), he was named second-team D2 All-American and totally destroyed the West in the Cactus Bowl (18-10-103-3-0 passing, 4-41-0 rushing). While it's unlikely he'll get any love on draft day, expect the Colts (3) to be calling as soon as the selection process is over.

Notes:
1. And Canada and probably other countries as well.
2. He's best known for Porky's, but I prefer to remember him for the sublime A Christmas Story.
3. He is, after all, from Zionsville.

Quick'n'dirty mock draft

2/59 John Greco T: A rare athlete who could step in at guard right away and develop into a tackle later on
3/93 Marcus Howard DE: A special pass-rusher who could easily step in and contribute
4/127 Thomas Brown HB: Hard-nosed but undersized back can block and catch
5/161 Joey Haynos TE: Huge (6'8) tight end prospect good at all aspects of position, awesome at none
6/196 Luke Swan WR: This was a hard one; Swan is a very good slot prospect — he can catch anything and has preternatural quickness — but no return experience and little special teams value
6/201 Mike Martinez C: Not the most athletic guy around, but a smart kid who's a top pass protector who plays his best against top competition.
6/202 Weston Dacus ILB: It's very likely they could grab an ILB like Jo-Lonn Dunbar earlier, but Dacus is a superior athlete who could develop into something special.
6/205 Jayson Foster WR: Another WR? No. This guy will see the line of scrimmage as often as Adam Vinatieri. The Colts are desperate for a dangerous return man — here he is.
7/236 Joe Fields S: This converted QB is still learning the position, but he has all the qualities the Colts look for, except pure speed

Pro Football Weekly says the Colts are interested in re-signing Rob Morris if he passes another physical. I'd be all for it. While it's unlikely Morris could unseat any of the Colts starters at linebacker, he could back all of them up and reassume his spot as the team's most effective and dynamic special-teams performer.

More auditions:

Weston Dacus ILB Arkansas (6011, 237, 4.60): How do you not love a kid like this? A tackling machine (102 tackles, 6.5T FL, 3 sacks as a senior), who has a business degree and is a repeat winner of Arkansas' "Hardest-Working Hog" award. And unlike many leather-helmet types, he has the athleticism to back it up, leading all ILB prospects in the shuttle and placing in the top three in the long jump, vertical and cones. An under-rated prospect, Dacus could have NFL starting potential if he can get a better grip on pass coverage. At worst, he's a solid backup with special-teams potential.

Joey Haynos TE Maryland (6075, 259, 4.87c/4.79pd): With Ben Utecht taking his act to the Ohio Valley and Dallas Clark doing his best Marvin Harrison imitation, the Colts need a tight end who can block; so how about this kid who looks like a cross between a power forward and a left tackle? Haynos isn't the dominating blocker you'd expect from a dude his size, but he is effective and, with coaching, could get much better. And, the kid has hands (68 catches and 4 scores in college). Although he'll never terrorize safeties on go routes, he can serves as an effective dump-off/emergency receiver when he isn't throwing linebackers to the ground. Oh, and he's also one of those high-character types. And, although he towers over most humans, he's also a great leaper — perfect for the red zone.

Jo-Lonn Dunbar ILB Boston College (6004, 231, 4.79c/4.85pd): You know the love Coltplay has for Dacus, it has more for Dunbar. At a workout, he looks like a fringe camp invite; on tape, he looks like a first rounder. Kid can flat-out play. He's a leader, a take-charge guy who elevates those around him. his numbers may not look special, but he dominates between the tackles and understands what it takes to shut down the short passing game. Despite his triangle number disadvantages, I see him as an eventual NFL starter. As with many propects the Colts are looking at, Dunbar is a fine young man — a leader who can boast about his academic record.

Luke Swan WR Wisconsin (5117, 195, 4.59): Forget the lackluster 40, this kid is a rare athlete and a very elusive natural runner with extraordinary lateral movement skills. Combine that with top-notch route-running, soft-as-silk hands and an indomitable will to succeed and you have a player. And he has all those character, work ethic and intelligence dealie-os the Colts stress so often. Too bad he spends so much time in the whirlpool, though. The kid looks like a football player in every way, but if you can't stay in one piece long enough to contribute in the Big 10, how can you survive in the NFL?

Tyrell Johnson SS Arkansas State (5117, 207, 4.41): This kid is an out-of-this-world athlete who doesn't always bring everything he has to the field. Distinctly better against the run and as a blitzer than he is in coverage, Johnson could have a future at linebacker in a system like Indy's. An awesome open-fiel tackler, he'll make whichever team gets him better on specials.

Curtis Cutts FS Central Michigan (5117, 216, 4.62):