Colts draft analysis: Luck and his weapons

I’m absolutely delighted with the Colts’ draft. I was writing a blog post before the draft in which the thesis would be that it would be reckless and irresponsible to draft Andrew Luck first and then not get him weapons on offense. Sure, there are holes on defense, but without receivers, blockers and perhaps another runner, the multi-million-dollar kid would get killed out there.

And that’s exactly what Ryan Grigson did. In all, he got Luck two reliable tight ends, two speedy wide receivers, a big between-the-tackles back and a massive tackle who may move inside. He also managed to wedge in a pretty accomplished nose tackle and a decent pass-rushing prospect, so there’s that too.

1/1 Andrew Luck QB Stanford

Numbers: 6040/234/4.67c

2011 stats: 404-288-3,517-37-10 passing, 47-150-2 rushing, 1-13-0 receiving, 1 tackle

ColtPlay says: I hate to beat a dead horse, so I won’t. Almost everything that can be said about the Luck-Colts relationship has already been said. The only thing I’d add is that all those fans expecting eight or nine wins out of the box are probably being a little unrealistic. Peyton Manning — who still has to be considered the gold standard of Colts quarterbacks — was even more polished and NFL-ready than Luck when he entered the league, and came into a better situation with Marshall Faulk in the backfield, and he won just three games as a rookie. Luck will almost certainly develop into a top-flight NFL quarterback, but he will also almost certainly have a nightmare season as a rookie.

2/34 Coby Fleener TE Stanford

Numbers: 6056/247/4.51pd

2011 stats: 34-667-10 receiving, 2 tackles

ColtPlay says: That said, Luck must be delighted to have his favorite target and good friend come into the league with him. Don’t kid yourself; Fleener is a premium talent at a position of need. He runs great routes, has soft hands, is very tall and has deep speed better than about half the wideouts in the league. I think it’s very meaningful that when Stanford needed a two-point convert last season, Luck threw to Fleener. And they made it. The knock on this kid is that he’s not much of a blocker, but these days, aside from guys like Brandon Pettigrew, what tight ends are good blockers? Brody Eldridge is, and I don’t think that’s who the Colts need to see on offense very often. A strong tight end, especially one who can pull safeties off the line of scrimmage and offer a variety of third-down options, is exactly what a young quarterback needs. It will be a tough first year for Luck, but having Fleener in the fold will make it a hell of a lot easier. He may not have a ton of catches in his first year, but his ability to pull the safeties off the line, offer a reliable (and familiar) target in the red zone and be able to play jump ball with safeties (or corners if he lines up wide) will be a huge boost for his rookie quarterback's confidence.

3/64 Dwayne Allen TE Clemson

Numbers: 6032/255/4.89c

2011 stats: 50-598-8 receiving, 4 tackles, 1 assist

ColtPlay says: I was flabbergasted when Colts fans considered this a bad pick. Really? Most NFL offenses run two-tight end set about 70-75 percent of the time; so a “second” tight end is basically a full-time player. And, although Allen is shorter and slower than Fleener, he is blessed with some of the best hands ever to grip a football. In fact, until he ran a horrible forty at the Combine, many considered Allen a first-round pick. Despite the familiarity Luck has with Fleener, I think you’ll see Allen have more catches as a rookie because he’ll be the guy running the short outlet routes on third down while the safeties are trying to chase Fleener. Consider him Luck’s security blanket.

3/92 T.Y. Hilton WR Florida International

Numbers: 5095/183/4.34pd

2011 stats: 72-1,038-7 receiving, 18-548-0 kick returns, 8-186-1 punt returns, 19-124-1 rushing

ColtPlay says: The Colts traded up to get this guy, so they really must like him. I do, too, but there are obvious upsides and downsides. On the sugar-coated side of the ledger, Hilton has astounding speed, great hands, short-area burst, top-of-the-line character and work ethic, elite leaping ability and overall football sense. But he is also haunted by a lack of height, a lack of weight, a lack of strength and a lack of durability. He will compete with free agent Donnie Avery for Pierre Garçon’s old split end role, and will probably win it if he stays healthy. His stat sheet will probably have a gaudy per-catch average, but not as many catches as you’d like. Still, his deep speed will keep defenses from crowding Reggie Wayne, Fleener and Allen near the line. Hilton — a smart and patient runner — will offer far better return skills than Garçon, but will never be close to his equal as a blocker.

5/136 Josh Chapman NT Alabama

Numbers: 6007/316/DNP

2011 stats: 10 tackles, 13 assists, 3.5-9 TFL, 1-3 sack, 4 passes broken up

ColtPlay says: Before I address Chapman, I have to say that I was totally frustrated by the way the Colts fans interpreted the signing of two former Ravens. When the Colts signed Tom Zbikowski, fans rejoiced, claiming their woes at strong safety were over. But when they signed Brandon McKinney, fans said meh, we still need a nose tackle. But the two players played, give or take, the same number of snaps last year, and while Zbikowski was benched from a starting position, McKinney played extremely well as a part-timer behind an all-world performer. If you watch the film, you can see that McKinney looks like an up-and-comer, while Zbikowski causes far more doubt. That said, the Colts drafted a nose tackle and not a strong safety. Chapman is what you look for in a second-tier nose tackle: He’s phenomenally strong, he’s stout, he’s tough and he will play unselfishly through pain. He won’t get a sack unless he falls on a quarterback and he gets winded if he plays too long, but you could say the same thing about every nose tackle there ever was, except for a sainted few. I can see him and McKinney rotating on the first two downs, keeping each other fresh and doing that nose tackle thing.  Because of an injury, teh Colts will not be able to see Chpman in action until late summer.

5/170 Vick Ballard HB Mississippi State

Numbers: 5101/219/4.65c4.56pd

2011 stats: 193-1,189-10 rushing, 20-187-0 receiving, 1 tackle

ColtPlay says: While I don’t have a lot of faith in the Colts current halfbacks, I would have preferred a speedy run-catch guy, but for a big guy, I guess Ballard’s okay. He doesn’t have great straight-line speed, but great lateral movement for a guy his size and an ability to make himself small when he has to. Look, he falls forward when he’s hit, and how many Colts halfbacks can you say that about since Edgerrin James? Still, he’s neither a natural blocker nor receiver, so don’t expect to see him in heavy rotation.

6/206 LaVon Brazill WR Ohio

Numbers: 5106/192/4.48c

2011 stats: 74-1,146-11 receiving, 25-137-0 punt returns, 3-77-1 rushing, 2-40-0 kick returns

ColtPlay says: Every year there’s a guy I root for, and this year it’s Brazill. Forget his Combine forty, this kid can fly on the field. But like Hilton, he’s a small guy who could be thrown around in college, so he may be in for a tough time in the NFL. And also, like Hilton, he’s a fine young man, the type you want to see succeed. They’ll throw him into the mix at split end and return specialist, and I would be very surprised if he did not stick at least as an extra.

7/208 Justin Anderson T Georgia

Numbers: 6042/335/5.31c

2011 stats: He’s an offensive lineman

ColtPlay says: Anderson’s the boom-or-bust guy this year. A former defensive lineman, Anderson is still learning how to be an offensive lineman, but has been very impressive so far. Ridiculously strong and quick, the concerns with Anderson are (not surprisingly) technique, durability and endurance. The upside on this guy at right tackle or guard is sky high, but the questions are also legitimate. I see his rookie year as one of few game appearances, intense coaching and lots of diet and exercise. If everything comes together, he could be a legit NFL starter. But he’s just as likely a career backup or even a second-year cut. It’s the seventh round, though, so well worth a gamble.

7/214 Tim Fugger OLB Vanderbilt

Numbers: 6032/248/4.60pd

2011 stats: 21 tackles, 12 assists, 13.5-54 TFL, 8-39 sacks, 8 passes broken up, 3 forced fumbles, 1-0-0 fumble recovery

ColtPlay says: Again, it’s the seventh round, so why not take some gambles? There are many questions about Fugger, but he has a great first step, fine college production and a sterling character. Look for him to make a living on special teams and outshine Jerry Hughes as the primary backup for Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis at outside linebacker.

7/253 Chandler Harnish QB Northern Illinois

Numbers: 6014/219/4.76c

2011 stats: 384-237-3,216-28-6 receiving, 194-1,379-11 rushing

ColtPlay says: I can't tell you how much love this pick. When the Colts get a chance to choose Mr. Irrelevant, they go with a marquee guy. No, Harnish is not the most polished passer among the draftables, but he’s enough of a passing prospect that he’s worth a look. Oh, and he just happens to be a better runner than most of the mid-round halfbacks. Look for him to make the roster as a No. 3 quarterback and don’t be surprised if the Colts build in some plays and formations to take advantage of his immense athletic talents. On a side note, I have been begging the Colts to draft an athletic running quarterback for years, so the selection of Harnish seems a bit like Christmas morning to me.

Also, the Colts have signed slow-but-talented Hampton CB Micah Pellerin (6003/194/4.61c) and stout USC inside linebacker Chris Galippo (6014/241/4.87?..