More depth chart thoughts

Yesterday, I was surprised to see Griff Whalen so far up the Colts' depth chart at wide receiver. Not to dis Whalen, but he hadn't seen the field until today, while guys like Jabin Sambrano and Kris Adams had been putting in reps and showing off some big plays. It's likely that his rapport with Andrew Luck has helped him, as has the team's need for a nifty third-down slot specialist. Even so, I think it's unfair for a rookie (an undrafted one yet!) to be put in the sixth spot without him taking even a single practice rep.

Unless they play like demons, things do not look good for Jeremy Ross, Quan Cosby and Jarred Fayson, all of whom were signed by the Polian regime. Now that the top spots at both receiver and returner are beginning to become obvious, they seem out of it.

Instead, look for a heated battle between Donnie Avery, Whalen, Sambrano and Adams for the final spot or two. Obviously, Avery is the most ready to contribute right now, but at 28 with an ACL injury in his past, his upside is limited. Adams has kicked around the league for a while, liked by all but unable to stick anywhere. Sambrano is a tiny lightning bug who was unstoppable in the Big Sky, so he might actually be Whalen's biggest threat aside from, of course, Avery.

Get ready for a halfback-by-committee approach this season, but also steady yourself for the fact that Donald Brown will be chairman. He is, to put it quite simply, the Colts' best halfback. That's not to say he's a complete back, just the best overall. Besides, if he's a Polian pick and the new regime still has him listed as a starter at this point, they believe he's their man.

A note about Brown that has been bothering me. ColtPlay, like pretty well everybody else, reported that Brown played much better last season when he was accompanied by a fullback. That's not actually true, but rather a result of faulty logic. Since Brown played much better in the later part of the 2011 season, and the Colts used a fullback more frequently later in that season, we all assumed that the fullback helped Brown. But after re-examining both video and tracking numbers, I've realized Brown was only marginally a better rusher with another back in the field, and did not enjoy a boost bigger than the statistical norm. Still, the Colts have made it clear than Dwayne Allen will play fullback when necessary. 

I can't see why there's any question about Mewelde Moore at this point. He was outstanding in a limited role in Bruce Arians' offense last season for the Steelers, and should do the same now that Arians runs the Colts' attack. Sure he's another year older,but he was never fast, and does not have that many career carries. I don't see a dropoff at this point.

After them, it's the battle of the big backs, as Delone Carter and Vick Ballard slug it out. Some people rave about Carter, but I have yet to understand why. Still, that doesn't mean that Ballard is a clear favorite, either. I don't care about his forty, but I get really leery about big backs with a slow first step. I call it Ron Dayne syndrome. Big backs can smash forward in college ball because, well, they are big. But in the NFL, virtually all the defenders are big and strong, and it gets a lot harder to knock them down without a full head of steam. 

I read that Joe Reitz is taking first-team reps again at right guard. I don't think that means he's won the job so much that it's an ongoing competition. In fact, I think Link will win the competition because Reitz has yet to get any kind of handle on proper run blocking. But no matter who wins, it'll be a sore spot.

Another player many observers seem to like a lot more than I do is Kavell Conner. Sure he played well against the run in 2011, but was an atrocity in coverage and didn't play a snap inside, which is where he is now listed as a started. I really thought AJ Edds had a chance to unseat him before he was felled by an ACL injury. The next in line is former CFL standout Jerrell Freeman, but he lacks the necessary bulk. Forget the 234 pounds the Colts list him at, he plays closer to 220.

The interesting possibility inside is Mario Harvey. He runs like the wind and was very, very productive at Marshall, but is only 5'11, and the intricacies of the pro game (especially coverage) seem to elude him.

Like Freeman, Justin Hickman was a CFL standout, but he has definite NFL size. In his first two seasons, he had just seven sacks, but burst out for an all-star season with 13 in his third. He has lost of burst, but his pass-rush moves are rudimentary, and his other skills (run stopping, coverage) are, at best, uncertain. It's not out of the question that he could refine his game as a backup to Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis (both masters of the art), but when has that ever happened before?

Which brings me to my ridiculous conclusion, let's look at what the Colts will be looking at in the 2013 draft. Obviously, a starting-quality corner is at the top of the list, followed by guard, inside linebacker, halfback (which could be a much bigger priority if Brown craps out) and pass-rusher to eventually replace Freeney.

Since the Colts are likely to have a Top 10 pick, they'll have their pick of corners. Right now I'm nuts about North Carolina State's David Amerson.