Thursday, November 19, 2009

Position Analysis: Safeties

For the relaunch of ColtPlay, I thought I’d take a quick look at the Colts safeties:


41 Antoine Bethea
Participation: 9 games, 9 starts, 612 snaps: 240 run (39.2 percent), 3 rush (0.5 percent), 369 cover (60.3 percent)
Pass rushing: 0 sacks, 0 QB hits, 0 pressures
Tackling: 49 tackles, 7 assists, 1.5 tackles for loss, 7 missed tackles (12.5 percent), 16 defeats, 2 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recoveries
Pass defense: 20 targets, 11 catches allowed, 201 yards allowed, 1 TD allowed, 3-19 interceptions, 3 passes defensed, 66.9 opp QB rating
Special teams: 0 tackles, 1 assist, 0 missed tackles
Contract status: Will be a restricted free agent after 2009 season
Triangle numbers: 5110-203-4.39
Summary: One of the legendary Bill Polian’s best-ever draft steals, this former sixth-rounder from Howard has established himself as one of the league’s premier free safeties. Just as at home in deep coverage as he is stuffing the run, Bethea is a complete player at the position. If you had to look for a drawback, you could say he is flagged for more than his share of penalties. Future: The Colts are lucky that 2010 is an uncapped year and that players must now wait six years to become unrestricted free agents. The team works very hard to re-sign their free agents, especially highly productive ones like Bethea, so it’s a virtual lock that he’ll be back and starting.



33 Melvin Bullitt
Participation: 9 games, 7 starts, 536 snaps: 208 run (38.8 percent), 6 rush (1.1 percent), 322 cover (60.1 percent)
Pass rushing: 0 sacks, 0 QB hits, 0 pressures
Tackling: 29 tackles, 3 assists, 0 tackles for loss, 4 missed tackles (12.1 percent), 8 defeats, 1 forced fumbles, 0 fumble recoveries
Pass defense: 17 targets, 16 catches allowed, 262 yards allowed, 0 TDs allowed, 0-0 interceptions, 0 passes defensed, 118.8 opp QB rating
Special teams: 1 tackle, 0 assists, 0 missed tackles
Contract status: Will be a restricted free agent after 2009 season
Triangle numbers: 6011-201-4.48
Summary: This undrafted former linebacker has endeared himself to Colts fans with consistently good performances and a knack for big plays. Realistically, he’s a pretty good strong safety who’s somewhat better against the run than he is in coverage. A great athlete and a solid tackler, Bullitt is still improving. Future: Transforming himself from a who’s-he guy to Bob Sanders’ fill-in to a starter in his own right, Bullitt has earned himself a handsome offseason payday. The Colts are likely to tender him at a level that would earn them a first-round pick if he signs elsewhere.


21 Bob Sanders
Participation: 2 games, 2 starts, 75 snaps: 34 run (45.3 percent), 0 rush (0.0 percent), 41 cover (54.7 percent)
Pass rushing: 0 sacks, 0 QB hits, 0 pressures
Tackling: 2 tackles, 1 assist, 1 tackle for loss, 1 missed tackle (33.3 percent), 1 defeats, 0 forced fumbles, 0 fumble recoveries
Pass defense: 4 targets, 2 catches allowed, 15 yards allowed, 0 TDs allowed, 1-29 interceptions, 1 pass defensed, 19.8 opp QB rating
Special teams: 0 tackles, 0 assists, 0 missed tackle
Contract status: Signed through 2012 season
Triangle numbers: 5083-204-4.35
Summary: It’s the same old story with Sanders: He’s a once-in-a-generation talent at safety when he’s healthy, but he’s almost never healthy. Currently on injured reserve for the third time in his career, at the end of this season, Sanders will have appeared in just 41 of 80 possible regular-season games and has played hurt in many of them. Future: Many Colts fans have predicted Bullet Bob could become a salary cap casualty, but there’s no cap in 2010 (and his bonuses would make cutting him cost more than keeping him anyway). While it doesn’t seem to make sense to have three multimillionaire safeties on a team already laden with big contracts all over the roster, especially if one isn’t playing, it would be hard to give up on a talent like Sanders. As frustrating as it is to have him hurt all the time, what Sanders brings to the field is phenomenal. The money is basically already spent, so keeping him and hoping that he’ll stay healthy makes sense.


40 Jamie Silva
Participation: 5 games, 0 starts, 21 snaps: 3 run (14.3 percent), 1 rush (4.8 percent), 17 cover (80.9 percent)
Pass rushing: 0 sacks, 0 QB hits, 0 pressures
Tackling: 3 tackle, 1 assist, 0 tackles for loss, 0 missed tackles (0.0 percent), 0 defeats, 0 forced fumbles, 0 fumble recoveries
Pass defense: 2 targets, 1 catches allowed, 6 yards allowed, 0 TDs allowed, 0-0 interceptions, 0 passes defensed, 56.3 opp QB rating
Special teams: 2 tackles, 0 assists, 0 missed tackles
Contract status: Signed through 2010 season
Triangle numbers: 5106-204-4.78
Summary: Silva’s lack of speed is his only real drawback, but it’s so glaring that he really only sees a few defensive plays, and then only in Dime and Quarter defenses. He’s surprisingly smooth in pass coverage, but is too slow to be left by himself in all but the shortest of zones. Silva’s real value is as a special-teams tackler, at which he is an elite talent. Future: While the Colts love Silva, it’s unrealistic to expect them to play him on defense very often. Still, it’s very likely he can carve out a Larry Izzo-style career as a special-teams weapon.


43 Aaron Francisco
Participation: 6 games, 0 starts, 15 snaps: 5 run (33.3 percent), 0 rush (0.0 percent), 10 cover (66.7 percent)
Pass rushing: 0 sacks, 0 QB hits, 0 pressures
Tackling: 2 tackles, 0 assists, 0 tackles for loss, 0 missed tackles, 0 defeats, 0 forced fumbles, 0 fumble recoveries
Pass defense: 2 targets, 2 catches allowed, 16 yards allowed, 1 TD allowed, 0-0 interceptions, 0 passes defensed, 139.6 opp QB rating
Special teams: 4 tackles, 0 assists, 1 missed tackle (20.0 percent)
Contract status: Will be an unrestricted free agent after 2009 season
Triangle numbers: 6017-211-4.74
Summary: More than a few fans were upset when the Colts cut veteran safety Matt Giordano for Francisco (even giving him Giordano’s No. 43 jersey). And while Francisco has, as expected, played fairly well on special teams, he’s been barely adequate on defense. While Francisco has great reactions and veteran savvy, he’s slow as dirt and can be taken advantage of in coverage. Future: Francisco has some real value as a special teamer, but will have a hard time convincing the Colts or any team to pay more than the minimum for his services.


20 TJ Rushing
Participation: 1 game, 0 starts, 1 snap: 0 run (0.0 percent), 0 rush (0.0 percent), 1 cover (100.0 percent)
Pass rushing: 0 sacks, 0 QB hits, 0 pressures
Tackling: 0 tackles, 0 assists, 0 tackles for loss, 0 missed tackles, 0 defeats, 0 forced fumbles, 0 fumble recoveries
Pass defense: 0 targets, 0 catches allowed, 0 yards allowed, 0 TDs allowed, 0-0 interceptions, 0 passes defensed, 0.0 opp QB rating
Special teams: 0 tackles, 0 assists, 0 missed tackle
Contract status: Will be a restricted free agent after 2009 season
Triangle numbers: 5103-180-4.41
Summary: Rushing’s listed among the safeties because he appeared at safety for one snap on a prevent defense late in a single game. In fact, it was impossible for me to find a picture of him playing safety for the Colts, so I had to use of him playing corner. To be perfectly honest, Rushing’s not really an NFL-quality defensive back and is worse at safety than he is at corner because of his lack of functional strength and tackling ability. If he's playing on defense, it's only because the Colts have no other healthy bodies to throw back there. Future: Rushing’s future with the team will be determined by the return specialist competition, which I’ll examine in a future post.


45 Devon Hall
Participation: 0 games, 0 starts, 0 snaps: 0 run (0.0 percent), 0 rush (0.0 percent), 0 cover (100.0 percent)
Pass rushing: 0 sacks, 0 QB hits, 0 pressures
Tackling: 0 tackles, 0 assists, 0 tackles for loss, 0 missed tackles, 0 defeats, 0 forced fumbles, 0 fumble recoveries
Pass defense: 0 targets, 0 catches allowed, 0 yards allowed, 0 TDs allowed, 0-0 interceptions, 0 passes defensed, 0.0 opp QB rating
Special teams: 0 tackles, 0 assists, 0 missed tackles
Contract status: Practice squad player, will be an unrestricted free agent after 2009 season
Triangle numbers: 6026-212-4.48
Summary: An undrafted rookie free agent signed by the Vikings, Hall was a cutdown day casualty. The Colts later signed him to their practice squad. Hall spent his first three seasons at Utah State as an outside linebacker, and was shifted to strong safety as a senior. Not surprisingly, coverage is his weak point, while tackling and hitting are big plusses. Hall’s in the NFL more because of his shocking workout numbers than anything I’ve seen him do in a game. Future: The Colts love giving athletic guys a chance to show what they’ve got, and Hall will likely be given a long look next training camp. Don’t rule out a shift back to outside linebacker.

Conclusion: Under ordinary circumstances, the Colts wouldn’t be able to keep up their embarrassment of wealth. But with 2010 being a cap-free year and with the rules regarding service and unrestricted free agency, they may actually be able to keep Bethea, Bullitt and Sanders.
After those three, Silva is probably a lock for a roster spot, but in all likelihood, will play little on defense. Francisco is likely in his first and last year as a Colt, and even if he does return, he won’t play much safety either. Hall’s a long shot at best and probably has a better future at linebacker than at safety.

Of course, if negotiations with labor bring the NFL back to the previous status quo, Bethea would become an unrestricted free agent. That would make things more difficult for the Colts, but they would likely find a way to keep their top three guys under contract.

The Colts don’t usually sign name free agents from other teams, so any help at safety would come from the draft or undrafted free agents. The Colts don’t have a great draft position – they’ll probably be picking no better than 30th and they are missing their 6th-round pick because of the 2009 draft-day trade that allowed the Colts to select punter Pat McAfee. And they have serious needs at tackle, guard and linebacker to address before they get down to safety. So a small-school prospect like Buffalo’s super smooth Mike Newton or Montana’s speedy but raw Shann Schillinger could be interesting.

2 comments:

Roy said...

Welcome back, Jerry. Your insights are always appreciated.

Jerry Langton said...

Thanks, Roy. That's very kind.