Colts-Texans quickie look

If you want to know why this year’s defense is so much better than last year’s, you only have to look at one play. Everybody knows the following:

1. The Colts are blitzing way more often this year

2. Matt Schaub, though a premier QB, suffers under pressure
3. Duane Brown, the Texans’ LT, is not great at pass pro, let alone blitz pickup
4. Dwight Freeney – the Colts’ RDE, best pass-rusher and the guy who should be eating Brown alive – was so injured, he didn’t even make the trip; so the ordinary rush wasn’t enough
5. Clint Session, the Colts’ overaggressive WLB, is soooo much better moving forward than back

6. It’s 2nd-and-10 at the Houston 20 with the Colts up 21-20

Everything – logic, passion, sinew – it all screamed blitz. Hell, I would have called a blitz. And that’s what it looked like. Session crowded the line. He put on his I’m-gonna-get-you-face. Tough, competent Chris Myers snapped the ball. Cerebral, strong-armed Schaub looked around and spotted tight end James Casey, his blitz outlet.

But Session (left) didn’t blitz. He dropped into coverage. And Schaub hadn’t accounted for him. Session leapt in front of the rookie Casey and got his big mitts on the ball. And that was it. Twenty-seven quick yards later, touchdown Colts. Texans’ hopes vanquished. Game effectively over.

That play would not have happened last year. Thank you, Larry Coyer.

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The Joseph Addai fanboys will be going nuts, fighting over one another to point out that he averaged 4.6 yards a carry. I acknowledge this, but I also point out that Donald Brown had 5.4 yards a carry and Chad Simpson had 10.0. Face it, the Texans are easy to run against unless you target Brian Cushing. Mark my words, this kid is going to be as huge a star as Amobi Okoye has been a flop. Okay, Okoye still has a chance to turn it around because he's so young, but he's actually giving up the most vital snaps to Jeff Zgonina. No guff against Zgonina (who I have the utmost respect for), but he's 39 years old, and has been cut 11 times by eight teams, including the could-not-be-more-desperate-for-linemen 1998 Colts. It's turn it around time for the boy wonder Okoye.

Yeah, Simpson came within one man of breaking that kick return for a touchdown, but I think a premier return specialist beats that man. My complaint with Simpson has always been his inability to do just that. He’ll forever be a just-about guy.

Nobody stepped up on specials (which is something you all know I watch intently). Say what you will about Cody Glenn (and I have yet to hear much), I’d still rather have Jordan Senn. If you saw any of the Jets-Panthers game, you may have seen Senn sticking it to kick returner David Clowney – yes, he of the 4.36 speed – on a kick return. In all fairness, Glenn did have a tackle on a kick return too, just 15 yards farther downfield than Senn’s on a slower, less elusive player.

At least for now, forget the Titans and the Jaguars; the Texans are who the Colts should fear in the AFC South. The Titans and Jaguars have awesome halfbacks and little else, while the Texans are a great team in search of a decent halfback. Imagine if Schaub had Chris Johnson or Maurice Jones-Drew at his disposal. Trust me, it would be a whole different ballgame.

Pat McAfee is the bargain of the draft. Kid is a natural. Few players are born for the NFL. He was.

A more complete look at the game later in the week.

Review/Preview

Charlie Johnson did a great job of pass pro at left tackle. Generally facing off against Jarrett Johnson and Dwan Edwards, he allowed no discernable pass-rush. Those are some pretty good rushers, particularly the Ravens’ Johnson, so the Colts’ Johnson had his hands full. On the other hand, he had one of his less impressive outing as a run blocker, so I’m still not in love with the idea of him as a long-term starter there. Basically the same could be said about right tackle Ryan Diem, but he managed a bit more push on running plays.

Speaking of offensive linemen, did you get a load of Kyle DeVan at right guard? He actually may be the long-term answer. Not only did he do a good job keeping Haloti Ngata, Trevor Pryce and Paul Kruger at bay, but he really made some plays in the running game. Keep in mind that Ngata and Pryce are exactly the kind of guys that gave Mike Pollak nightmares. Look at it this way: In the hole between center Jeff Saturday and DeVan, halfback Joseph Addai ran 6 times for 29 yards (a 4.83-yard average) and his only touchdown. In all other holes – he didn’t run between DeVan and Diem – he ran 13 times for 45 yards (a 3.46-yard average). Maybe if the Colts had five DeVans, Addai would be the back people keep telling me he is.

Y’know who’s getting more and more invisible on offense? Jacob Tamme. He showed up on one play in the second quarter, threw a sort-of block (Addai was stopped a yard short of the line of scrimmage) and Tamme headed back to the sidelines. Considering that he was hailed as a big-time receiver and has caught just one pass for six yards, his future in Indy does not look bright.

Of the other receivers, the numbers weren’t gaudy, but they were effective. The Ravens threw a lot of DBs out there, but Reggie Wayne (7-89-0) was his typical brilliant self, Pierre Garcon (6-108-0) destroyed Fabian Washington and Tom Santi (6-80-0) made another strong case for anointing him the No. 2 tight end, although his fumble caused a few sidelong glances.

On defense, the guy who impressed me most was MLB Gary Brackett. Strong in coverage (he had a pick and neutralized Ray Rice), he was awesome against the run. He’s set to become an unrestricted free agent after the season, and it looks even more crucial that he must be re-signed.

The rest of the coverage didn’t impress me. Jacob Lacey, who I am a big fan of, looked particularly shaky. He’s probably better off as a slot guy than an outside guy, but it was only his fourth start, so the jury remains out on him.

Against the run, I was surprised by how Tim Jennings and Robert Mathis stood up, especially when you consider both their sizes and reputations. I was not impressed by the usually reliable Melvin Bullitt, who seemed mystified by Rice.

There was a Devon Hall sighting. He played safety – not linebacker – but much closer to the line of scrimmage than Colts’ safeties normally play. And he looked good. Probably has a future.

The Colts mounted basically no pass rush, with no sacks, one QB hit (by Raheem Brock) and just six pressures (three of them by Freeney).

On specials, nobody other than Pat McAfee impressed me. He continues to be a top-flight punter and kickoff man. What a great draft pick.

Against the Texans

I have a great deal of respect for this team, which is always dangerous when QB Matt Schaub is healthy. They are, however, much less potent on offense now that pass-catching TE Owen Daniels is out.

On offense, their greatest asset is Schaub’s rapport with starting WRs Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter. After a sensation rookie year HB Steve Slaton has been figured out by enemy defenses, and journeymen Ryan Moats and Chris Brown have had to pick up the slack on the ground. The Texans’ line is so-so overall with excellent performances this year by RT Eric Winston and C Chris Myers weighed down by shaky seasons from LT Duane Brown and LG Kasey Studdard.

Aside from three outstanding players – DE Mario Williams, MLB DeMeco Ryans and rookie OLB Brian Cushing – the Texans’ defense isn’t very scary. They’re soft up the middle, and their secondary can be beaten. CB Dunta Robinson was a top performer at one point, but hasn’t come back from a terrible injury the way the Texans’ had hoped.

Houston-Indianapolis is usually a close game, and the Colts are coming into it banged up. The keys to victory will be how well the Colts secondary can limit Johnson and Walter, how well Charlie Johnson (who’s hurt) or his replacement can handle Williams and how successful the Colts can be running up the middle.

mmmm Turkey

Happy Thanksgiving everyone.

Stampede Blue reports a number of interesting roster changes today:

1) The Colts waived HB Mike Hart and re-signed DE Josh Thomas. Hart was then signed to the practice squad, replacing TE Colin Cloherty. It would appear that they wanted Thomas to spell Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. Thomas is no great talent and has limited upside, but he works hard and knows the defense as well as anyone. Hart still seems to be getting over last year's ACL injury and wasn't really a vital cog on offense (two snaps in the third quarter against San Francisco) or on specials. That they put him on the PS indicates that he's still part of their future.

2) CB Keiwan Ratliff was released by the Steelers and ILB Adam Seward was released by the Jaguars. With all the injuries and inexperience the Colts have at cornerback, it wouldn't be that surprising if the Colts brought Ratliff back. He has no speed or upside, but he's smart and played well for them last year. Seward, on the other hand, might have a harder time finding any interest, even though Tyjuan Hagler is on IR.

3) A number of ex-Colts found jobs this week: OLB Jordan Senn is Panther, CB Michael Coe is a Jaguar and OLB Rocky Boiman is a Steeler. Of them, I think only Senn should think of putting down roots.

Position Analysis: Cornerbacks

25 Jerraud Powers
Participation: 9 games, 9 starts, 601 snaps: 225 run (37.4 percent), 7 rush (1.2 percent), 369 cover (61.4 percent)
Pass rushing: 0 sacks, 0 QB hits, 0 pressures
Tackling: 38 tackles, 6 assists, 1 tackles for loss, 4 missed tackles (9.5 percent), 9 defeats, 1 forced fumble, 1 fumble recovery
Pass defense: 56 targets, 32 catches allowed, 300 yards allowed, 0 TDs allowed, 1-1 interception, 4 passes defensed, 64.6 opp QB rating
Special teams: 1 tackle, 1 assist, 0 missed tackles
Contract status: signed through 2012
Triangle numbers: 5091/188/4.51c4.43pd
Summary: This relatively unknown third-round pick has already established himself as a legitimate NFL player in less than one season. Inserting into the starting lineup for Game 1 (he missed the second game due to injury), Powers has been consistently strong in both pass coverage and run stopping. He did have a bit of a rough time against Arizona’s Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston, but bounced back quickly – and that’s a very good sign in a young corner. Injuries have forced him to be the Colts’ de facto No. 1 corner and he’s responded with aplomb. Future: No matter who returns to the Colts’ secondary and who doesn’t, Powers could have at least one starting spot sewn up for quite a long time. At worst, he’s the third guy.

27 Jacob Lacey

Participation: 9 games, 4 starts, 431 snaps: 148 run (34.3 percent), 0 rush (0.0 percent), 283 cover (65.7 percent)
Pass rushing: 0 sacks, 0 QB hits, 0 pressures
Tackling: 36 tackles, 5 assists, 1.5 tackles for loss, 4 missed tackles (10.0 percent), 8 defeats, 0 forced fumbles, 0 fumble recoveries
Pass defense: 57 targets, 33 catches allowed, 353 yards allowed, 1 TD allowed, 1-35-1 interceptions, 5 passes defensed, 74.7 opp QB rating
Special teams: 4 tackles, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle
Contract status: Signed through 2011 season
Triangle numbers: 5097/177/4.47pd
Summary: This undrafted rookie free agent made the team on his own merits and then was thrust into the starting lineup when injuries struck. Considered by many to be too small to stand up to the rigors of the NFL, Lacey has proven his doubters wrong; and come up strong, even in run support. It should be noted, however, that he has graded out significantly better in games when he plays fewer snaps, as opposed to those he starts. Future: Clearly Lacey has earned a roster spot. He may be somewhat overmatched as a game-in, game-out starter, but he’s a solid nickel back who can start if you need him to.

23 Tim Jennings

Participation: 8 games, 5 starts, 367 snaps: 126 run (34.3 percent), 0 rush (0.0 percent), 241 cover (65.7 percent)
Pass rushing: 0 sacks, 0 QB hits, 0 pressures
Tackling: 30 tackles, 3 assists, 1.5 tackles for loss, 4 missed tackles (11.8 percent), 7 defeats, 0 forced fumbles, 0 fumble recoveries
Pass defense: 46 targets, 33 catches allowed, 332 yards allowed, 1 TD allowed, 1-0 interceptions, 6 passes defensed, 90.1 opp QB rating
Special teams: 3 tackles, 0 assists, 0 missed tackles
Contract status: Will be a free agent after 2009 season
Triangle numbers: 5077/185/4.32c4.28pd
Summary: The much-maligned but actually quite effective Jennings has had a year just like his career – one jaw-droppingly great play followed by once wince-inducingly bad one. A little jitterbug in coverage, he’s much better off matched against opponents his own size (although he did a great job on Houston’s massive Andre Johnson this year). Despite his size, Jennings is very aggressive against the running game, but is not an effective tackler. Future: Eclipsed by younger, cheaper talents and limited in what he can offer, Jennings might wear a different uniform next year. I’m sure the Colts would welcome him back, but only at their price.

26 Kelvin Hayden

Participation: 4 games, 4 starts, 207 snaps: 107 run (51.7 percent), 0 rush (0.0 percent), 100 cover (48.3 percent)
Pass rushing: 0 sacks, 0 QB hits, 0 pressures
Tackling: 18 tackles, 1 assists, 0 tackles for loss, 0 missed tackles (0.0 percent), 4 defeats, 0 forced fumbles, 0 fumble recoveries
Pass defense: 25 targets, 18 catches allowed, 204 yards allowed, 0 TDs allowed, 1-6 interception, 1 passes defensed, 79.4 opp QB rating
Special teams: 0 tackles, 0 assists, 0 missed tackles
Contract status: Signed through 2013 season
Triangle numbers: 5103/197/4.48c
Summary: While Powers has been a serviceable No. 1 cornerback in Hayden’s absence, when he’s healthy Hayden is the guy. An outstanding athlete, this former wideout is a premier player against both the pass and the run. This year, though, he’s been hurt and when he tried to come back too early, he had a hard time contending with mediocre receiving corps in games against the Rams and 49ers. Future: If he returns to full strength, Hayden’s team’s the No. 1 corner. He signed a big deal before the 2009 season, so expect him to be around for quite a while.

28 Marlin Jackson

Participation: 4 games, 0 starts, 147 snaps: 24 run (16.3 percent), 8 rush (5.4 percent), 115 cover (78.3 percent)
Pass rushing: 0 sacks, 2 QB hits, 0 pressures
Tackling: 7 tackles, 2 assists, 1.5 tackles for loss, 2 missed tackles (22.2 percent), 3 defeats, 0 forced fumbles, 0 fumble recoveries
Pass defense: 15 targets, 8 catches allowed, 72 yards allowed, 1 TD allowed, 1-3 interception, 1 pass defensed, 61.0 opp QB rating
Special teams: 0 tackles, 2 assists, 0 missed tackles
Contract status: Will be a free agent after 2009 season
Triangle numbers: 6005/198/4.52c4.48pd
Summary: When he's healthy, Jackson is a legitimate NFL starter who brings a rare amount of strength and toughness to the position. But he hasn't been healthy this year. Even before he went on injured reserve, he played hurt. When he's right, Jackson's equally at home outside or in the slot, Jackson can also play safety, but he’s not as good there as he is at corner. Future: A corner of Jackson’s ability would fetch $6.0 million to $7.5 million annually on the open market, and I’m not sure the Colts could afford that even if 2010 is uncapped. More likely, Jackson will move on.

20 TJ Rushing

Participation: 2 games, 0 starts, 13 snaps: 6 run (46.2 percent), 0 rush (0.0 percent), 7 cover (53.8 percent)
Pass rushing: 0 sacks, 0 QB hits, 0 pressures
Tackling: 2 tackles, 0 assists, 0 tackles for loss, 0 missed tackles (0.0 percent), 0 defeats, 0 forced fumbles, 0 fumble recoveries
Pass defense: 1 target, 1 catch allowed, 14 yards allowed, 0 TDs allowed, 0-0 interceptions, 0 passes defensed, 118.8 opp QB rating
Special teams: 0 tackles, 1 assist, 0 missed tackles
Contract status: Will be a free agent after 2009 season
Triangle numbers: 5090/186/4.45pd
Summary: Somewhat more comfortable at slot corner than at safety, Rushing is at best a marginal defensive back at any position. When he has played, it has been because of injuries to more appropriate players. Future: Rushing’s future with the team will be determined by the return specialist competition, which I’ll examine in a future post.

37 Anthony Madison
Participation: 2 games, 0 starts, 0 snaps: 0 run (0.0 percent), 0 rush (0.0 percent), 0 cover (0.0 percent)
Pass rushing: 0 sacks, 0 QB hits, 0 pressures
Tackling: 0 tackles, 0 assists, 0 tackles for loss, 0 missed tackles (0.0 percent), 0 defeats, 0 forced fumbles, 0 fumble recoveries
Pass defense: 0 targets, 0 catches allowed, 0 yards allowed, 0 TDs allowed, 0-0 interceptions, 0 passes defensed, 0.0 opp QB rating
Special teams: 2 tackles, 0 assists, 0 missed tackles
Contract status: Will be a free agent after 2009 season
Triangle numbers: 5083/180/4.42pd
Summary: Madison is a veteran defensive back who was signed the Colts as injury insurance. Since signing with the Steelers as an undrafted free agent in 2006, he’s been cut by them three times and also by the Buccaneers and Browns. The two games he played this season were for Cleveland. What value he has is on special teams. Future: It’s unlikely Madison will show the Colts anything he didn’t show the other teams, so his grip on a roster spot is tenuous at best.

34 Terrail Lambert
Participation: 0 games, 0 starts, 0 snaps: 0 run (0.0 percent), 0 rush (0.0 percent), 0 cover (0.0 percent)
Pass rushing: 0 sacks, 0 QB hits, 0 pressures
Tackling: 0 tackles, 0 assists, 0 tackles for loss, 0 missed tackles (0.0 percent), 0 defeats, 0 forced fumbles, 0 fumble recoveries
Pass defense: 0 targets, 0 catches allowed, 0 yards allowed, 0 TDs allowed, 0-0 interceptions, 0 passes defensed, 0.0 opp QB rating
Special teams: 0 tackles, 0 assists, 0 missed tackles
Contract status: Will be a free agent after 2009 season
Triangle numbers: 5101/188/4.36pd
Summary: After an up-and-down career at Notre Dame, Lambert was ignored by the Combine and flew well under most draft observers’ radar. But he drew some attention after a remarkable Pro Day, and was signed by the 49ers. They cut him just before the season, and the Colts signed him to their practice squad. Future: Few consider Lambert to be a great prospect, but he has all the tools and seems like a pretty smart young man. He’ll be given every chance to win a spot next year.

Conclusion: Colts president Bill Polian has proven he’s not afraid to invest in cornerbacks. When he first arrived, he signed free agents Tyrone Poole and Jeff Burris (themselves former Polian first-round picks from previous stops in Carolina and Buffalo, respectively). Since then, he has drafted Jackson in the first round, Hayden (who later re-signed for big money) and Jennings in the second and Powers, Dante Hughes, Joseph Jefferson, David Macklin and Donald Strickland in the third. And he’s also signed veteran Walt Harris.

So it’s interesting that the current starters are a rookie third rounder and a rookie undrafted free agent. Of course, that has a lot to do with injuries to Jackson and Hayden, as well as the fact that Jennings plays better the less he’s exposed. But the team is undefeated in games without the top two and even opened the season with Jackson at third corner, behind Powers (although Jackson injury had something to do with that).

If money were no object and the Colts could re-sign all their free agents, they would have a very impressive set of corners. Hayden at No. 1, Powers and Jackson battling for No. 2, and Lacey and Jennings duking it out for No. 4.

More realistically, though. Either Jackson or Jennings or both will be wearing different jerseys next year. That would leave Hayden and Powers as the starters and Lacey as the top reserve.

If they lose one or both free agents, the Colts would likely draft a corner or two. I’d love to give you some insight on the kind of corner they’d pick, but Polian’s history has shown no obvious tendencies. He’ll grab a muscleman like Jackson or a flea like Poole, a burner like Jennings or a slug like Hughes.

There are a lot of corners out there that fit many of the Colts’ criteria, and one of the most intriguing is Powers’ old running mate at Auburn, Walter McFadden.

What Would Ironhead Heyward Say?

Do the Colts have a fullback? Well, the simple answer is … yes and no. If you look at any roster, you won’t find the symbol FB one tab away from anyone’s name. But in the myriad complexities of the Colts’ offense, the fullback actually does show up from time to time. In fact, after the Colts’ first nine games (I don’t have the breakdowns for the tenth yet), a fullback has shown up on 13 of 609 offensive snaps. That’s 2.13 percent of all plays!

So who are these fullbacks? Scan the roster or the depth chart and you won’t find a one. Nor will you find anyone who fits the part based on the old height to weight formula.

But we here at ColtPlay do more than just look at the press releases and websites. So it is with great pride that we give you an exclusive look at the Colts’ fullbacks:

Eric Foster

Proportion of fullback plays: 11 of 13 (84.62 percent) Triangle numbers: 6015/277/4.89pd Day job: Pass-rushing defensive tackle
The big guy (left) shows up as a short yardage (six plays on 3rd and 1, one play on 3rd and 2 and two plays on 4th and 1) and on max protect (two late-game kneeldowns) packages. While Foster has no discernable running or receiving skills – he did not play offense even in high school – he’s the primary guy because he’s 277 pounds and runs really fast. That can cause problems for linebackers and safeties who’d like to try to tackle the ballcarrier.

Donald Brown
Proportion of fullback plays: 1 of 13 (7.69 percent) Triangle numbers: 5102/210/4.46c Day job: Soon-to-be featured halfback
Brown played fullback once on 1st and 10. The reason would appear to have been to confuse the easily fooled Cardinals defense.

Chad Simpson
Proportion of fullback plays: 1 of 13 (7.69 percent) Triangle numbers: 5085/216/4.40c Day job: Kick returner and change-of-pace halfback
Simpson showed up at fullback on a 1st and 10 play against the Rams. One may only assume he got lost.

Conclusion
Well, the obvious conclusion is that Tom Moore is of the opinion that fullbacks are not part of the modern NFL.

I tend to disagree. Fullbacks are great: They are more mobile than pulling guards and centers on outside running plays, they represent an outlet receiver on third down and are usually pretty nasty special-teams players. Heck, they even give you the misdirection option.

But I’m not running the team.

The Defensive Tackles That Could Have Been

In the offseason, Colts fans demanded new defensive tackles. Bill Polian listened (or coincidentally came to the same conclusion) and added three: former Colts starter Ed Johnson, second-rounder Fili Moala and fourth-rounder Terrance Taylor. Well, Johnson and Taylor have since been cut, and Moala is a bit player.


Of course, it’s too early to tell how good a rookie’s going to be, but just for fun, let’s take a look at the defensive tackles the Colts could have had. What if they had drafted a guy like Terrance Knighton (left)? The rookie defensive tackle choices were, by draft position:

1/9 BJ Raji (Green Bay)
7 games/0 starts, 9 tackles, 2 assists, 1 missed tackle, 1 sack, 0.5 tackle for loss
What he’s done: Out of position as the 3-4 team’s third end, Raji has stood up pretty well, and still looks like the Packers’ future at nose tackle. What he’d do for the Colts: Starting at the bottom of the DT pile, Raji would have fought for playing time in Indy, and may have emerged as a starter by now. Long-term potential: Great if he returns to NT

1/24 Peria Jerry (Atlanta)
2 games/0 starts, 1 assist
What he’s done: In the two games before he blew his knee out, Jerry showed some pass-rush skills, but was a pushover when it came to the running game. What he’d do for the Colts: Be part of the rotation, but not a major player. Long-term potential: Good, but could be a limited player

1/32 Ziggy Hood (Pittsburgh)
3 games/0 starts, 1 tackle, 2 assists, 1 missed tackle, 0.5 tackle for loss, 1 pass defensed
What he’s done: Pittsburgh is easing Hood into his pro career at 3-4 end, with uninspiring results thus far. What he’d do for the Colts: Pretty much what Moala has. Long-term potential: Good

2/40 Ron Brace (New England)
3 games/0 starts, 1 tackle
What he’s done: Raji’s backup at Boston College, Brace is still considered the Pats’ NT of the future, but he’s done very little in what few snaps he’s played. What he’d do for the Colts: Probably sit, and occasionally fill in for Antonio Johnson on first and second downs. Long-term potential: Good

2/56 Fili Moala (Indianapolis)
1 game/0 starts, 1 tackle
What he’s done: Not a lot. What he’d do for the Colts: Starting at the bottom of an unheralded, but surprisingly effective group, Moala has found snaps hard to come by. But he hasn’t earned any more than he’s gotten, looking somewhat lost, especially against the run. He will be under a great deal of scrutiny next year. Long-term potential: Good, but with some bust potential

2/62 Sen’Derrick Marks (Tennessee)
3 games/0 starts, 1 tackles, 1 pass defensed
What he’s done: Look a lot like Moala. What he’d do for the Colts: See entry for Moala. Long-term potential: Good

3/67 Alex Magee (Kansas City)
5 games/0 starts, 3 tackles, 3 missed tackles, 2 sacks
What he’s done: Another guy shifted to 3-4 end, Magee has been a pleasant surprise as a pass-rusher and a major liability against the run. He could easily earn a third-down specialist role in the NFL. What he’d do for the Colts: Play occasionally on passing downs, and do fairly well. Long-term potential: Good, but in a limited role

3/68 Jarron Gilbert (Chicago)
1 game/0 starts
What he’s done: Everybody loved him for jumping out of a pool on YouTube, but his NFL career has been less exciting so far. In a handful of snaps late in a blowout victory against Detroit, he didn’t look very strong or quick. Interestingly, he’s been shift to DE in a 4-3 defense. What he’d do for the Colts: Everyone knew he was raw, and the Colts likely would have put him in a spot similar to Keyunta Dawson’s – a run stopping end – and let him learn in practice. Long-term potential: Good, but he has a better-than-average bust potential

3/72 Terrance Knighton (Jacksonville)
10 games/10 starts, 18 tackles, 4 assists, 1 missed tackle, 0.5 sacks, 1.5 tackles for loss
What he’s done: Everyone was sure this kid was raw, but he has torn out of the gates to be the league’s most productive rookie DT. Although he mounts only a modest pass-rush, he’s an elite run stopper already and has been a rock for the Jaguars’ defense. What he’d do for the Colts: Although he may not have been pressed into duty as quickly as he was in Jacksonville, the Colts likely would have recognized Knighton’s skills, and he would have been contributing on first and second downs right away. Long-term potential: Great, but in a limited role; he’d be a great 3-4 NT

3/81 Roy Miller (Tampa)
9 games/0 starts, 16 tackles, 3 assists, 2 sacks, 1 tackle for loss
What he’s done: The No. 3 DT on a poor team, Miller has alternated great plays with so-so ones, but shows up every day and makes blocking him difficult. Surprisingly, he’s been better against the pass than the run as a rookie because scouting reports predicted exactly the opposite. What he’d do for the Colts: Miller was considered a play right away guy with a modest upside, and that’s come true in Tampa. Although the chances of him developing into a big-time starter in Indy wouldn’t be great, he’d always fight for playing time. Long-term potential: Okay

3/93 Corvey Irvin (Carolina)
0 games/0 starts
What he’s done: Been placed on IR before the season started. What he’d do for the Colts: Likely the same. He could develop in the future, though; and projects as a third-down guy. Long-term potential: Okay

4/103 Darrell Scott (Saint Louis)
4 games/0 starts, 3 tackles
What he’s done: One of an astounding eight guys to play inside on the Rams’ horrible line (keep in mind that the best DT they have, Adam Carriker, is on IR), Scott has been one of the better ones, earning increased playing time. The rest of the season will go a long way toward determining if he’s a future starter or not. He’s shown good balance, but could get stronger. What he’d do for the Colts: While the Colts were not as desperate as the Rams at DT, Scott probably would have shown enough to get some snaps and distinguish himself. Long-term potential: Good

4/113 Vaughn Martin (San Diego)
1 games/0 starts, 1 tackle
What he’s done: The big kid from Canada is considered raw and is starting out at the bottom of the Chargers’ NT heap. He’s played a bit at DE as well, but looked better inside to me. What he’d do for the Colts: Sit, wait, learn. Long-term potential: Good

4/115 Sammie Lee Hill (Detroit)
6 games/6 starts, 6 tackles, 1 fumble recovery
What he’s done: the book on this enormous kid was supposed to be that he’d be raw and much better against the run than pass. The book was wrong. Hill earned a starting spot out of training camp and has been pretty competent, though streaky (great against the Vikings, horrible against the Rams) and better against the pass than run. If he can stay healthy, he could be a fixture for the Lions. What he’d do for the Colts: Probably sit and learn, but would eventually get a chance to develop and potentially start. Long-term potential: Great, if he keeps working hard and he has for the woebegone Lions

4/136 Terrance Taylor (Indianapolis)
0 games/0 starts
What he’s done: Nothing other than get cut. He later spent some time on the Panthers’ practice squad. What he’d do for the Colts: See above. Long-term potential: Terrible, he was considered a potential first rounder as a junior and is now out of football; he may get invited to a camp next season

6/205 RaShon Harris (Pittsburgh)
2 games
What he’s done: Made into a 3-4 end by the Steelers, they cut him before the season. He signed with Carolina, appeared in two games with no stats, and was cut. They signed him to their practice squad, and cut him again before he latched on with the Steelers again. What he’d do for the Colts: Likely be cut. Long-term potential: Not great

6/207 Myron Pryor (New England)
6 games/0 starts, 7 tackles, 1 assists, 0.5 tackle for loss, 1 forced fumble, 1 pass defensed
What he’s done: Though drafted much later than Brace, Pryor has played far more and far better for the Pats. Probably too small to ever be a true NT, he’ll play when the Pats use four-man fronts or could have a future as a 3-4 end. What he’d do for the Colts: With his pass-rush skills (4 QB hits and 3 pressures in 131 rushes), he could well fight for third-down snaps, and eventually mount a case for a starting job. Long-term potential: Good, but limited

7/210 Vance Walker (Atlanta)
4 games/0 starts, 5 tackles, 1 assist, 0.5 tackles for loss, 1 pass defensed
What he’s done: After Jerry went down in Atlanta, Walker stepped into his spot as a rotational DT, and has looked very much the same – mounting an okay pass-rush, but getting blown off the ball on running plays. What he’d do for the Colts: Wouldn’t get many chances to play, but could be kept on to see if he has a future. Long-term potential: Decent

7/244 Rick Jean-Francois (San Francisco)
0 games/0 starts
What he’s done: Stayed on the roster, but has yet to see the field. What he’d do for the Colts: Probably get cut. Long-term potential: Okay, but I wouldn’t bet on him

UDFA Desmond Bryant (Oakland)
7 games/0 starts, 16 tackles, 1 assist
What he’s done: I’d like to say this Harvard grad has been a pleasant surprise for the Raiders, but he’s only been playing out of necessity, and has been thrown around as you’d expect. What he’d do for the Colts: He’d have a harder time making the team, let alone playing regularly. In all likelihood, the Colts would start him slowly as a base end who moves inside on passing downs. Long-term potential: Okay, but definitely would be better off on another team, and potentially at another position

UDFA Antonio Dixon (Philadelphia)
7 games/0 starts, 6 tackles, 1 assist, 1 sack
What he’s done: Originally signed by the Redskins but cut before Game 1 because he was fat and out of shape. Dixon was signed by the Eagles and the light has appeared to come on for him. He has worked hard to become their No. 3 DT. Not only has he mounted some pass-rush, but he’s been surprisingly solid against the run. He even made the highlight reels a few days back when he blocked a Robbie Gould field-goal attempt to help the Eagles win 24-20 in a crucial game. Looks like a future starter if he keeps it up – that’s a big if. What he’d do for the Colts: Pretty much the same as the Redskins … or the Eagles. If the Colts coaches and players could motivate him the way the Eagles’ have, he’d be playing regularly. Long-term potential: Great, but with a big bust potential

Okay, the Colts had no real chance at Raji or Jerry. And Brace or Hood would have cost them halfback Donald Brown. Instead, Polian selected Moala and Taylor. Back then, ColtPlay leaned toward Miller and Pryor (probably a better pair for right now, although perhaps not for the long run). But while it’s way too early to tell, don’t you kind of wish the Colts had drafted Knighton or Hill instead of Moala, Pryor instead of Taylor, and signed Dixon as a free agent?

Or better yet, how about Sebastian Vollmer instead of Moala?

Post-game thoughts

Kyle DeVan (left) is a player, plain and simple. Good guy to have on the team. No, he’s not blessed with big-time talent. He'll never be a John Hannah or a Chris Hinton, but it would be a huge mistake to get rid of him. He earns his pay.

It’s interesting to see that although Antoine Bethea was gravely injured, he was still out there play after play on defense. Who else would go out there? Silva? Francisco? Rushing? Imagine the coverage holes. Maybe the Colts do need another safety.

The kid, De’Von Hall, was activated. I like him a lot on specials, and really think he deserves a look at WLB next training camp.

Mike Pollak and Mike Hart are healthy scratches? Interesting (translation: See ya!). Especially when you consider that Dan Federkeil, the “other” veteran lineman, had just gone onto injured reserve. That left just Jamey Richard – who hadn’t played a down on offense before the Baltimore game – and the much-loathed Tony Ugoh as offensive line reserves. Interestingly, I originally typed “Tony Ugoh” as “Tiny Ugoh” on the first run. Is that a Freudian slip?

Pierre Garcon is getting better and better. But I'm not as solidly seated on that wagon as many Colts fans are. I've seen people compare him to Reggie Wayne, and I'm not ready for that. Reggie Langhorne, maybe.

As much as I’m told I “have” to worship him by mainstream media and other bloggers, I’m still not sold on Joseph Addai as a No. 1 back. I love it how Colts fans scream "he scored a TD, you must love him!" or "he's almost up to 3.6 yards a carry, you gotta compare him to Barry Sanders!" Sorry, can't do that. I'm sure Addai is an awesome guy, but he's not one of the dozen (maybe 20) best backs in the NFL. You can wish all you want, but it's not gonna ever be true.

How much do the Colts need a return specialist? The scientific answer: Lots and lots.

The Blind Side Part II

Okay, so we’ve looked at the Colts’ pass blockers, so why don’t we turn it around and rank their pass rushers? Using the same formula (three points for a sack, two for a QB hit and one for a pressure), here they are. Keep in mind since it’s plays (in this case, pass rushes by the player in question) divided by points awarded for sacks, QB hits and pressures, you’re looking for a lower number, as opposed to the offensive guys where you wanted a bigger number.

First, let’s get rid of the defensive players who, for some reason or another, where never asked to rush the opposing passer.

They are, in order of how many snaps they’ve seen on defense:

Jacob Lacey 365, Tim Jennings 327, Kelvin Hayden 207, Bob Sanders (IR) 75, Aaron Francisco 15, TJ Rushing 14, Ramon Humber 12

All, except Humber, are defensive backs and are probably considered too small by the coaching staff to rush the passer. Sanders made that list even though he can be a devastating pass rusher because the Colts didn't want to expose his fragile body to undue strain (fat lot good that did). Humber is just too occasional a contributor on defense to have had many chances.

Now let’s get rid of the players who have rushed the passer, but with no recorded results. They are, in order of rushes:

Fili Moala 16, Jordan Senn (cut) 7, Melvin Bullitt 6, Jerraud Powers 6, Antoine Bethea 3, Josh Thomas (cut) 2, Tyjuan Hagler (IR) 1, Jamie Silva 1

Hey, at least the coaches thought those guys had a chance.

So here are the defensive linemen who have made a difference:

3.41 DE Dwight Freeney 269 pass rushes/10 sacks, 10 QB hits, 29 pressures
4.06 DE Robert Mathis 288 pass rushes/9 sacks, 10 QB hits, 24 pressures
9.75 DT Daniel Muir 117 pass rushes/1 sack, 2 QB hits, 5 pressures
10.78 DT Eric Foster 248 pass rushes/1 sack, 6 QB hits, 8 pressures
19.00 DT Antonio Johnson 114 pass rushes/1 sack, 0 QB hits, 3 pressures
23.25 DE Keyunta Dawson 93 pass rushes/0 sacks, 0 QB hits, 4 pressures
25.64 DE/DT Raheem Brock 282 pass rushes/1 sack, 0 QB hits, 8 pressures
66.00 DT Ed Johnson (cut) 66 pass rushes/0 sacks, 0 QB hits, 1 pressure

And here are the blitzers:

1.82 OLB Clint Session 20 pass rushes/1 sack, 3 QB hits, 2 pressures
2.00 CB Marlin Jackson (IR) 8 pass rushes/0 sacks, 2 QB hits, 0 pressures
3.00 OLB/DE Philip Wheeler 9 pass rushes/1 sack, 0 QB hits, 0 pressures
5.00 ILB/OLB Freddy Keiaho 20 pass rushes/1 sack, 0 QB hits, 1 pressure
7.75 ILB Gary Brackett 31 pass rushes/0 sacks, 4 QB hits, 0 pressures

Again, let’s share our observations:

1. I don’t believe in half, third or quarter sacks for this kind of thing
2. You can’t compare blitzers to guys who have to go against an offensive lineman play-in and play-out. Besides, the most active of them had 31 rushes, so it's hard to get a real statistical look at them. And before you get too nuts and advocate that the Colts blitz every play like my son playing Madden 10, keep in mind Brackett's numbers. In 31 blitzes, he recorded four pressures. That may sound good, but it also means he did not even scare the passer 27 times while leaving a big hole in coverage. In a 4-3 defense, blitzing should be a seasoning, not the meat.
3. Freeney and Mathis deserve every bit of praise they get. They are both awesome and a big part of the Colts' continued success.
4. Foster gets due props for his pressure up the middle, but what about Muir? He’s looking good for a man his size. I'll be writing about him a lot in upcoming days.
5. The other DTs are not really giving much pressure, but I'll give Mookie a break because I consider any pass-rush at all from him to be gravy. But Brock is having an unprecedently rough year rushing the passer, and Big Ed was just plain awful. And Moala? C'mon, man. I know it's only 16 rushes, but nothing?
6. All of Wheeler’s results came from his play at OLB, and none at his few (13) snaps at DE, so he counts as a blitzer only.
7. The Colts are blitzing like mad compared to the Dungy days (although still not as much as the league average), and they are seeing some decent results. I count a grand total of 112 pass rushes by players other than defensive linemen after nine games (12.44 a game), which if I am not mistaken is more than they ever had in 16 games under Dungy.

The Blind Side

Using a little formula I devised that assigns 3 points to a sack allowed, 2 points to a QB hit allowed and 1 for each pressure, here’s a look at how effective the Colts’ offensive players have been at protecting the passer:

Donald Brown (HB) INF 21 pass blocks/0 sacks, 0 QB hits, 0 pressures

Chad Simpson (HB) INF 3 pass blocks/0 sacks, 0 QB hits, 0 pressures

Mike Hart (HB) INF 1 pass block/0 sacks, 0 QB hits, 0 pressures

Jeff Saturday (C) 43.22 389 pass blocks/1 sack, 1 QB hit, 4 pressures

Gijon Robinson (TE) 36.00 36 pass blocks/0 sacks, 0 QB hits, 1 pressure

Mike Pollak (RG) 21.36 299 pass blocks/2 sacks, 3 QB hits, 2 pressures

Ryan Lilja (LG) 20.47 389 pass blocks/1 sack, 4 QB hits, 8 pressures

Joseph Addai (HB) 15.50 62 pass blocks/1 sack, 1 pressure

Ryan Diem (RT) 14.41 389 pass blocks/0 sacks, 5 QB hits, 17 pressures

Dallas Clark (TE) 13.50 54 pass blocks/0 sacks, 1 QB hit, 1 pressure

Kyle DeVan (RG) 12.24 208 pass blocks/1 sack, 1 QB hit, 12 pressures

Charlie Johnson (LT) 10.12 344 pass blocks/2 sacks, 5 QB hits, 18 pressures

Tony Ugoh (LT) 5.00 45 pass blocks/3 QB hits, 3 pressures

Things I find interesting about this:

1. Although Diem has let 22 opponents behind him, none have managed a sack, while the left tackles (which does not include Federkeil and DeVan, who played one snap apiece at left tackle, but both on running plays) have allowed 31 opponents past them and given up two sacks. I attribute this to Manning’s incredible ability to get the rid of the ball under pressure. As a right handed passer, he can easily see rushers coming from the right side better than the left.

2. I was surprised Pollak scored better than DeVan (although my scale is far from scientific), but Pollak has not been DeVan’s equal on running plays, and has been much more penalty prone.

3. Jamey Richard has yet to play Snap One.

4. Ugoh has been horrible, losing his man on one of every 7.5 pass blocks. But then, Johnson hasn't exactly looked like Tarik Glenn, either.

Position Analysis: Safeties

For the relaunch of ColtPlay, I thought I’d take a quick look at the Colts safeties:


41 Antoine Bethea
Participation: 9 games, 9 starts, 612 snaps: 240 run (39.2 percent), 3 rush (0.5 percent), 369 cover (60.3 percent)
Pass rushing: 0 sacks, 0 QB hits, 0 pressures
Tackling: 49 tackles, 7 assists, 1.5 tackles for loss, 7 missed tackles (12.5 percent), 16 defeats, 2 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recoveries
Pass defense: 20 targets, 11 catches allowed, 201 yards allowed, 1 TD allowed, 3-19 interceptions, 3 passes defensed, 66.9 opp QB rating
Special teams: 0 tackles, 1 assist, 0 missed tackles
Contract status: Will be a restricted free agent after 2009 season
Triangle numbers: 5110-203-4.39
Summary: One of the legendary Bill Polian’s best-ever draft steals, this former sixth-rounder from Howard has established himself as one of the league’s premier free safeties. Just as at home in deep coverage as he is stuffing the run, Bethea is a complete player at the position. If you had to look for a drawback, you could say he is flagged for more than his share of penalties. Future: The Colts are lucky that 2010 is an uncapped year and that players must now wait six years to become unrestricted free agents. The team works very hard to re-sign their free agents, especially highly productive ones like Bethea, so it’s a virtual lock that he’ll be back and starting.


33 Melvin Bullitt
Participation: 9 games, 7 starts, 536 snaps: 208 run (38.8 percent), 6 rush (1.1 percent), 322 cover (60.1 percent)
Pass rushing: 0 sacks, 0 QB hits, 0 pressures
Tackling: 29 tackles, 3 assists, 0 tackles for loss, 4 missed tackles (12.1 percent), 8 defeats, 1 forced fumbles, 0 fumble recoveries
Pass defense: 17 targets, 16 catches allowed, 262 yards allowed, 0 TDs allowed, 0-0 interceptions, 0 passes defensed, 118.8 opp QB rating
Special teams: 1 tackle, 0 assists, 0 missed tackles
Contract status: Will be a restricted free agent after 2009 season
Triangle numbers: 6011-201-4.48
Summary: This undrafted former linebacker has endeared himself to Colts fans with consistently good performances and a knack for big plays. Realistically, he’s a pretty good strong safety who’s somewhat better against the run than he is in coverage. A great athlete and a solid tackler, Bullitt is still improving. Future: Transforming himself from a who’s-he guy to Bob Sanders’ fill-in to a starter in his own right, Bullitt has earned himself a handsome offseason payday. The Colts are likely to tender him at a level that would earn them a first-round pick if he signs elsewhere.


21 Bob Sanders
Participation: 2 games, 2 starts, 75 snaps: 34 run (45.3 percent), 0 rush (0.0 percent), 41 cover (54.7 percent)
Pass rushing: 0 sacks, 0 QB hits, 0 pressures
Tackling: 2 tackles, 1 assist, 1 tackle for loss, 1 missed tackle (33.3 percent), 1 defeats, 0 forced fumbles, 0 fumble recoveries
Pass defense: 4 targets, 2 catches allowed, 15 yards allowed, 0 TDs allowed, 1-29 interceptions, 1 pass defensed, 19.8 opp QB rating
Special teams: 0 tackles, 0 assists, 0 missed tackle
Contract status: Signed through 2012 season
Triangle numbers: 5083-204-4.35
Summary: It’s the same old story with Sanders: He’s a once-in-a-generation talent at safety when he’s healthy, but he’s almost never healthy. Currently on injured reserve for the third time in his career, at the end of this season, Sanders will have appeared in just 41 of 80 possible regular-season games and has played hurt in many of them. Future: Many Colts fans have predicted Bullet Bob could become a salary cap casualty, but there’s no cap in 2010 (and his bonuses would make cutting him cost more than keeping him anyway). While it doesn’t seem to make sense to have three multimillionaire safeties on a team already laden with big contracts all over the roster, especially if one isn’t playing, it would be hard to give up on a talent like Sanders. As frustrating as it is to have him hurt all the time, what Sanders brings to the field is phenomenal. The money is basically already spent, so keeping him and hoping that he’ll stay healthy makes sense.


40 Jamie Silva
Participation: 5 games, 0 starts, 21 snaps: 3 run (14.3 percent), 1 rush (4.8 percent), 17 cover (80.9 percent)
Pass rushing: 0 sacks, 0 QB hits, 0 pressures
Tackling: 3 tackle, 1 assist, 0 tackles for loss, 0 missed tackles (0.0 percent), 0 defeats, 0 forced fumbles, 0 fumble recoveries
Pass defense: 2 targets, 1 catches allowed, 6 yards allowed, 0 TDs allowed, 0-0 interceptions, 0 passes defensed, 56.3 opp QB rating
Special teams: 2 tackles, 0 assists, 0 missed tackles
Contract status: Signed through 2010 season
Triangle numbers: 5106-204-4.78
Summary: Silva’s lack of speed is his only real drawback, but it’s so glaring that he really only sees a few defensive plays, and then only in Dime and Quarter defenses. He’s surprisingly smooth in pass coverage, but is too slow to be left by himself in all but the shortest of zones. Silva’s real value is as a special-teams tackler, at which he is an elite talent. Future: While the Colts love Silva, it’s unrealistic to expect them to play him on defense very often. Still, it’s very likely he can carve out a Larry Izzo-style career as a special-teams weapon.


43 Aaron Francisco
Participation: 6 games, 0 starts, 15 snaps: 5 run (33.3 percent), 0 rush (0.0 percent), 10 cover (66.7 percent)
Pass rushing: 0 sacks, 0 QB hits, 0 pressures
Tackling: 2 tackles, 0 assists, 0 tackles for loss, 0 missed tackles, 0 defeats, 0 forced fumbles, 0 fumble recoveries
Pass defense: 2 targets, 2 catches allowed, 16 yards allowed, 1 TD allowed, 0-0 interceptions, 0 passes defensed, 139.6 opp QB rating
Special teams: 4 tackles, 0 assists, 1 missed tackle (20.0 percent)
Contract status: Will be an unrestricted free agent after 2009 season
Triangle numbers: 6017-211-4.74
Summary: More than a few fans were upset when the Colts cut veteran safety Matt Giordano for Francisco (even giving him Giordano’s No. 43 jersey). And while Francisco has, as expected, played fairly well on special teams, he’s been barely adequate on defense. While Francisco has great reactions and veteran savvy, he’s slow as dirt and can be taken advantage of in coverage. Future: Francisco has some real value as a special teamer, but will have a hard time convincing the Colts or any team to pay more than the minimum for his services.


20 TJ Rushing
Participation: 1 game, 0 starts, 1 snap: 0 run (0.0 percent), 0 rush (0.0 percent), 1 cover (100.0 percent)
Pass rushing: 0 sacks, 0 QB hits, 0 pressures
Tackling: 0 tackles, 0 assists, 0 tackles for loss, 0 missed tackles, 0 defeats, 0 forced fumbles, 0 fumble recoveries
Pass defense: 0 targets, 0 catches allowed, 0 yards allowed, 0 TDs allowed, 0-0 interceptions, 0 passes defensed, 0.0 opp QB rating
Special teams: 0 tackles, 0 assists, 0 missed tackle
Contract status: Will be a restricted free agent after 2009 season
Triangle numbers: 5103-180-4.41
Summary: Rushing’s listed among the safeties because he appeared at safety for one snap on a prevent defense late in a single game. In fact, it was impossible for me to find a picture of him playing safety for the Colts, so I had to use of him playing corner. To be perfectly honest, Rushing’s not really an NFL-quality defensive back and is worse at safety than he is at corner because of his lack of functional strength and tackling ability. If he's playing on defense, it's only because the Colts have no other healthy bodies to throw back there. Future: Rushing’s future with the team will be determined by the return specialist competition, which I’ll examine in a future post.


45 Devon Hall
Participation: 0 games, 0 starts, 0 snaps: 0 run (0.0 percent), 0 rush (0.0 percent), 0 cover (100.0 percent)
Pass rushing: 0 sacks, 0 QB hits, 0 pressures
Tackling: 0 tackles, 0 assists, 0 tackles for loss, 0 missed tackles, 0 defeats, 0 forced fumbles, 0 fumble recoveries
Pass defense: 0 targets, 0 catches allowed, 0 yards allowed, 0 TDs allowed, 0-0 interceptions, 0 passes defensed, 0.0 opp QB rating
Special teams: 0 tackles, 0 assists, 0 missed tackles
Contract status: Practice squad player, will be an unrestricted free agent after 2009 season
Triangle numbers: 6026-212-4.48
Summary: An undrafted rookie free agent signed by the Vikings, Hall was a cutdown day casualty. The Colts later signed him to their practice squad. Hall spent his first three seasons at Utah State as an outside linebacker, and was shifted to strong safety as a senior. Not surprisingly, coverage is his weak point, while tackling and hitting are big plusses. Hall’s in the NFL more because of his shocking workout numbers than anything I’ve seen him do in a game. Future: The Colts love giving athletic guys a chance to show what they’ve got, and Hall will likely be given a long look next training camp. Don’t rule out a shift back to outside linebacker.

Conclusion: Under ordinary circumstances, the Colts wouldn’t be able to keep up their embarrassment of wealth. But with 2010 being a cap-free year and with the rules regarding service and unrestricted free agency, they may actually be able to keep Bethea, Bullitt and Sanders.
After those three, Silva is probably a lock for a roster spot, but in all likelihood, will play little on defense. Francisco is likely in his first and last year as a Colt, and even if he does return, he won’t play much safety either. Hall’s a long shot at best and probably has a better future at linebacker than at safety.

Of course, if negotiations with labor bring the NFL back to the previous status quo, Bethea would become an unrestricted free agent. That would make things more difficult for the Colts, but they would likely find a way to keep their top three guys under contract.

The Colts don’t usually sign name free agents from other teams, so any help at safety would come from the draft or undrafted free agents. The Colts don’t have a great draft position – they’ll probably be picking no better than 30th and they are missing their 6th-round pick because of the 2009 draft-day trade that allowed the Colts to select punter Pat McAfee. And they have serious needs at tackle, guard and linebacker to address before they get down to safety. So a small-school prospect like Buffalo’s super smooth Mike Newton or Montana’s speedy but raw Shann Schillinger could be interesting.