Here are some things ColtPlay has learned about Bill Polian’s drafts:
• One or two picks might be short, but none will be fat
• They may not all have the best 40-yard dashes, but most will be among their position’s leaders at the vertical jump
• Few if any will be considered “character risks,” and if they are, that assessment will have been made over one or two incidents, not a consistent type of behavior
• Few in the media will correctly guess the Colts first pick — it’s only happened twice since Polian has taken over, with Rob Morris in 2000 and Joseph Addai in 2007
• Most of the Colts’ picks will be players the media predicted would be picked many picks later — the only guy I remember the Colts taking later than expected was Mike Doss (second round, 2003), and we all know how that worked out
• Enhancing Peyton Manning’s overall effectiveness is always a factor when it comes to first-day picks
• Many will be more intelligent than the average draftee, and with more diverse interests
• Some will be coming off a bad senior year after an outstanding junior year, or will be one-year wonders as seniors
• Fewer will be underclassmen than most teams’ drafts
So with that in mind, here’s the first of what will probably be many mock drafts from ColtPlay this year:
1. Kenny Britt WR Rutgers 6027/218/4.50c
Yeah, the big guy. Britt is not just a big productive receiver but is a real load to bring down after the catch and is also a strong blocker. He could start his career in the slot and eventually move outside. Reminds me a lot of Dwayne Bowe, but with better hands.
2. Jarron Gilbert DT San Jose State 6052/288/4.87c
Lots of teams project him as a 3-4 end, but I like him inside. He has a lot to learn, but is such an excellent athlete that he’s too hard to pass up at this spot. Has a chance to be an absolute destroyer.
3. Xavier Fulton T Illinois 6042/302/5.01c
Yeah, I know all of his drawbacks, but anyone with the athletic potential to be a star NFL left tackle deserves a look. Fulton is a lot like Tony Ugoh (for whom the Colts traded their 2008 first-round pick to select in 2007’s second round), but may be an even better athlete and is certainly more dedicated to his craft.
4. Stephen Hodge S TCU 5115/234/4.58c
I know he’s listed as a safety, but he played more like a linebacker at TCU and compares favorably with former Colts’ star Cato June. Even if he doesn’t develop into a starter — though I bet he will — he was a special-teams demon in college and projects to be one in the pros as well.
5. Ian Johnson RB Boise State 5112/212/4.46c
Am I caught up the college hype and the Cinderfella story that was Boise State? I don’t think so. All Johnson did in college was produce, and critics kept looking for ways to bring him down. They say he wasn’t fast enough. Really? He was the second-fastest back at the Combine. They say he’s no athlete. Is that so? Because he aced all the other drills too. Johnson reminds me a lot of Mike Hart — only with speed. Polian loves backs with that special, indefinable something, and Johnson has it.
6. Jarett Dillard WR Rice 5102/191/4.54c
This year’s ridiculous athlete who the Colts will try to nurture into a player. Can contribute immediately as a returner, and has tremendous upside as a receiver.
6. Justin Brantley P Texas A&M 6031/249/5.00e
Big-legged punter could also take over kickoff job.
7. Jason Williams OLB Western Illinois 6010/241/4.59u
Small-school hit-and-run ’backer has a chance to be a real contributor.
4 comments:
I enjoy reading your analysis of the Colts and NFL. I review your blog regularly, but have never commented. You are certainly right about attempting to pick Mr. Polian’s first and second round picks. He has a clear vision that is not shared league wide. I think the best receiver that meets all of the Colt's expectations is Brian Robiskie. He is intelligent (academic All American), the best route runner in the draft, has enough speed for the slot or outside (4.49 40yd dash @ the combine), and is a willing blocker. The only reason he is not mentioned as a first rounder is due to the misfortune of having first year starting QB's throwing to him in two consecutive years. In terms of round two, I expect the selection to be an offensive lineman. Thanks for your work and keep blogging!
Wow, great comments. I like Robiskie a lot, and think he's a lot like Gonzo, but he lack the upside of a Britt. Keep reading and always feel free to disagree!
Jerry I love reading your blog and always find your comments insightful. Regarding your draft, I love WR/DT/OT w/our first 3 picks. I'm not sure about the order though. I think Gilbert could be a stud, but don't know that he'll last til the end of round 2. I guess that's the trick and what the scouts get paid for--to find the best combo of those 3 positions. Is Robiskie that good? I realize he didn't have the best QBs throwing to him recently.
Thanks TM, great comment. Yeah, we have chosen to follow the NFL's most unpredictable team for sure. Like I said to Former, I really like Robiskie and he screams Colts draft pick, but I think they need a more explosive guy. There's a lot to love about Robiskie — and he will contribute in the NFL right away — but he's not a great blocker (something the Colts love), and he's not a naturally elusive runner. Maybe he is the pick, and I'm just in denial because it's so darn obvious.
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