Thursday, January 22, 2009

The curse of the third round

People talk about Bill Polian’s poor record in the third round, so I thought ColtPlay should take a look.

Polian’s third-round picks with the Colts:

2008 93rd pick Philip Wheeler LB Georgia Tech
• jury’s still out, but so far he looks pretty good
2007 95th pick Daymeion Hughes DB California
• bumped from No. 4 corner spot by waiver-wire pickup Keiwan Ratliff, and is in danger of losing his roster spot
2007 98th pick Quinn Pitcock DT Ohio State
• retired unexpectedly after promising rookie season
2006 94th pick Freddie Keiaho LB San Diego State
• quality starter who could play for just about team
2005 92nd pick Vincent ‘Sweet Pea’ Burns DE Kentucky
• hailed as the next John Randle, Burns was ineffective the few times he was healthy enough to play; recorded zero tackles in two NFL seasons
2004 68th pick Ben Hartsock TE Ohio State
• rarely played behind Marcus Pollard and Dallas Clark, he later signed with Tennessee and then later Atlanta; In six NFL seasons, he has caught 27-273-0, including just 6-41-0 in three seasons with the Colts
2004 69th pick Gilbert Gardner (left) LB Purdue

• played a lot for the Colts early in his career, but didn’t distinguish himself; later bounced around with Tennessee, Detroit and, finally, Chicago; in the last three seasons, he has played in 16 games, starting none
2003 90th pick Donald Strickland DB Colorado
• played okay for the Colts before he made a big stink about being healthy enough to play while on IR, which forced the Colts to waive him, he later played a bit with the Eagles and 49ers — he’s still there, and even starts from time to time
2002 74th pick Joseph Jefferson DB Western Kentucky
• big, fast small-schooler showed flashes of greatness, but couldn’t stay healthy enough to contribute; played 27 of a possible 64 games
2001 91st pick Cory Bird DB Virginia Tech
• decent special teamer was too sloppy in coverage to play much on defense; played 45 games for Colts, starting eight
2000 91st pick David Macklin DB Penn State
• spent four years with Colts as an on-again, off-again starter, bounced around with Arizona, Washington, St. Louis and Kansas City, where he’s now the No. 5 corner
1999 63rd pick Brandon Burlsworth G Arkansas
• a tragic fatal accident prevented Burlsworth from ever playing a down with the Colts
1998 71st pick E.G. Green WR Florida State
• another promising player whose career was derailed by injury — caught 54-665-2 in three seasons with the Colts

Polian’s third-round picks with Carolina

1997 87th pick Kinnon Tatum LB Notre Dame
1996 73rd pick Winslow Oliver RB New Mexico
1996 88th pick J.C. Price DT Virginia Tech

Polian’s third-round picks with Buffalo

1992 83rd pick Keith Goganious LB Penn State
1991 82nd pick Darryl Wren DB Pittsburg State
1990 69th pick Glenn Parker T Arizona
1988 65th pick Bernard Fored WR Central Florida
1987 60th pick David Brandon LB Memphis State
1987 78th pick Jamie Mueller RB Benedictine
1986 77th pick Leonard Burton C South Carolina

Conclusion

We’ll I’ll be damned. Polian really has been absolutely horrible in the third round. If you subtract Wheeler because it’s too early to tell how good he is, the master evaluator has hit on just two (Keiaho and Parker) of 23 third-round picks. There were some okay players (like Macklin, Strickland and Mueller) and there were some if-only players (Jefferson, Green) and there was one nobody-could-have-predicted (Burlsworth), but when it comes down to it, the third round has been a dead zone for Polian.

So does that mean we should just forget any player Polian drafts in the third round this year? Quite the opposite — he’s due.

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