Remember how everyone in Coltsland (except ColtPlay, natch) were telling us all about how interested the team was in Mike "Possum" Jenkins? Well, Jenkins has been a free agent for a while, and I don't think the Colts have dialed his number. Maybe his value was over-rated. The Jags offered him a one-year deal, and he turned it down. Now he's shopping his services to the Bills and Raiders, and nobody wants to play for the Bills or Raiders.
That reminds me of Carson Palmer, whose agents says that if he's cut (and he's almost certain to be), the guy the Raiders gave two first rounders (and more) for, would rather play for the 49ers than the Cardinals. While it's certainly true that the 49ers are a much better-run organization with a very good chance of winning a Super Bowl in the next few seasons and the Cardinals are not, it makes me wonder about the guy. Yes, he could get a ring with San Fran, but in Arizona, he'd actually be wearing a helmet, not a baseball cap. It's not like Matt Hasselbeck, who knew his starting days were behind him when he signed in Indy.
I'd love it if the Colts got a nice halfback in the draft to complement Vick Ballard, but all of them come with so many questions. Hard to be sure about any of them, but there sure is upside. I have a sneaking suspicion we'll see Christine Michael wearing a horseshoe next season.
There's precious little left in free agency, especially at the positions the Colts want. Anybody want to see Ryan Lilja again?
I like the trade for Stanley Havili. He's just a guy who can help in so many ways if he stays healthy. Obviously, his primary job on offense will be as a blitz pickup/outlet receiver, but he can also help on special teams in coverage (he had six special-teams tackles last season) and as a blocker.
I know Josh Chapman is still the future at nose tackle, but they didn't sign Aubrayo Franklin to sit. But that's okay. Franklin is getting on in years (but at a position that has seen lots of success by players well into their 30s) and will offer no pass rush, but he stops runners cold and annoys and occupies linemen, so it's all good.
Like everyone else, I'm pretty sure the Colts won't be able to find a decent starter out the Outlaw Jerry Hughes, Erik Walden or Lawrence Sidbury. To be perfectly honest, I believe that if all three were given the same number of snaps, Sidbury would be the most productive. Still, I'd love to know what made the Falcons bench him when he was so promising early in his career and they so desperately needed pass-rushers? And if was so serious, why didn't they cut him?
Interesting thing about Walden, although his contract is huge, the signing bonus was only $1 million and only his first year's salary is guaranteed. If he's not effective in his first season, cutting him would not leave behind a lot of dead money. Seems like the Colts like him, but are prepared to dump him pending his one-year audition. Similarly, Sidbury received no bonus at all.
Saturday, March 30, 2013
Friday, March 29, 2013
How about this scenario?
With the draft rapidly approaching, I thought it would be fun to put myself in the captain's chair.
1/24 Tank Carradine OLB Florida State
I know, I know, he never did anything before 2012 and is recovering from an ACL tear last November. But when he did play, he was outstanding (11 sacks in 12 games). The Colts need an explosive pass rusher, and it's only Carradine's lack of experience and injury that allow them to grab him at No. 24. I also considered: Jonathan Cooper G North Carolina and Keenan Allen WR California.
3/86 Aaron Dobson WR Marshall
Again I'm choosing the potential greatness, with a good degree of risk. Dobson has all the tools to be a No. 1 NFL wide receiver, but lacks the experience and polish of many others in this class.
4/121 Dennis Johnson HB Arkansas
A do-everything feature back who can run, catch, block and return kicks, Johnson is available here only because of his 13 career lost fumbles. They appear to come from the way he holds the ball, a trait that could be coached out of him.
6/191 Theo Goins G Central Florida
Late picks are usually role players or high-risk.high-upside guys, and the only risk with Goins is whether he can adjust to the NFL after getting by on brute strength in C-USA. Plus, you gotta like a guy named Thaophilius.
7/230 Manase Foketi G West Texas A&M
There were a lot of guys at a lot of positions I liked here, but I had to go with the one with the biggest upside.
7/254 Melvin White S Louisiana-Lafayette
Miscast as a corner, he'd make a better pro safety.
1/24 Tank Carradine OLB Florida State
I know, I know, he never did anything before 2012 and is recovering from an ACL tear last November. But when he did play, he was outstanding (11 sacks in 12 games). The Colts need an explosive pass rusher, and it's only Carradine's lack of experience and injury that allow them to grab him at No. 24. I also considered: Jonathan Cooper G North Carolina and Keenan Allen WR California.
3/86 Aaron Dobson WR Marshall
Again I'm choosing the potential greatness, with a good degree of risk. Dobson has all the tools to be a No. 1 NFL wide receiver, but lacks the experience and polish of many others in this class.
4/121 Dennis Johnson HB Arkansas
A do-everything feature back who can run, catch, block and return kicks, Johnson is available here only because of his 13 career lost fumbles. They appear to come from the way he holds the ball, a trait that could be coached out of him.
6/191 Theo Goins G Central Florida
Late picks are usually role players or high-risk.high-upside guys, and the only risk with Goins is whether he can adjust to the NFL after getting by on brute strength in C-USA. Plus, you gotta like a guy named Thaophilius.
7/230 Manase Foketi G West Texas A&M
There were a lot of guys at a lot of positions I liked here, but I had to go with the one with the biggest upside.
7/254 Melvin White S Louisiana-Lafayette
Miscast as a corner, he'd make a better pro safety.
Thursday, March 28, 2013
Colts trade for fullback Stanley Havili
Another ex-Eagle has landed in Indy. The Colts traded little-used defensive lineman Clifton Geathers to Philadelphia for fullback Stanley Havili.
It's a pretty good move. The Colts needed a fullback, and Havili is a versatile one.
He's not the punishing blocker most people desire at the position, but does a decent job clearing holes and keeping blitzers at bay. In college, he was regarded as a receiving threat, but did not do all that well recording 7-43-0 on 11 targets with one drop. He's not a bad runner, going 6-22-1 as a rook. And, rare for a fullback, can make people miss. He could definitely get some snaps in at halfback.
The biggest problem with Havili is his injury history.
And, in other news, Jeff Linkenbach signed his tender.
It's a pretty good move. The Colts needed a fullback, and Havili is a versatile one.
He's not the punishing blocker most people desire at the position, but does a decent job clearing holes and keeping blitzers at bay. In college, he was regarded as a receiving threat, but did not do all that well recording 7-43-0 on 11 targets with one drop. He's not a bad runner, going 6-22-1 as a rook. And, rare for a fullback, can make people miss. He could definitely get some snaps in at halfback.
The biggest problem with Havili is his injury history.
And, in other news, Jeff Linkenbach signed his tender.
Options at receiver
I'm pretty happy Darrius Heyward-Bey left Indy without a contract. Although he could still sign for a lower price, as his agent says he's deciding between the Colts and Lions (and hinted at Lions because he and Matthew Stafford are old friends), I think the team would be better off if he didn't.
Don't get me wrong, the Colts need a big strong wideout badly, and it would be much better if he was fast. Obviously DHB fits those criteria, but I don't think he's what the Colts need.
He's really just a deep threat, but I'm not sure the Colts lack that. Yes, he did run a 4.25 forty back in the day (2009), but second-year Colts TY Hilton (4.34) is plenty fast, too. Last season, DHB was targeted 20 times on passes that were 20 yards for more through the air, going 4-181-1 with two drops. By comparison, Hilton (who was also targeted 20 times), went 10-383-6 with one drop. While Hilton was obviously the beneficiary of superior quarterback play, it was also his rookie season.
The Colts already have guys who can get yards before the catch, they need guys who can get yards after the catch. While DHB would be an improvement in that department over the since-departed Donnie Avery, he's not as good at it as many other more polished and versatile receivers.
He's also uncomfortable in the slot, is not a return man and doesn't play on special teams. He's a pretty good blocker, though.
So if DHB isn't the answer, who is? All the posturing Colts owner Jim Irsay has done on Twitter regarding acquiring a veteran receiver makes me think they plan to use their first-round pick elsewhere (please, please let it a be an edge rusher, I don't trust the talents of Erik Walden any more than I do those of the Outlaw Jerry Hughes).
Since it appears as though they have been shut out from that plan, they may have to draft a guy early. I'm pretty sure Tennessee's Cordarrelle Peterson will be gone by No. 24, but California's Keenan Allen should be available. I love the kid, and the frequent comparisons to Jordy Nelson are more than apt. But that may make him more of a really, really good No. 2 rather than the No. 1 they need to eventually replace Reggie Wayne.
Another option could be Clemson's DeAndre "Nuk" Hopkins. He has all the atlent in the world, but I'm afraid his lack of over strength and his hand use will make for a rude awakening for him in the NFL, as he'll be pressed and jammed and knocked off his routes like he never was in college.
And, to tell the truth, their forty times (4.53 for Allen and 4.57 for Nuk) disturb me.
If they wait until the third round, the best options would most likely be Tennessee Tech's Da'Rick Rogers (immaturity issues), Arkansas' Cobi Hamilton (limited upside) and Marshall's Aaron Dobson (hmmm). I really like Dobson. Don't put too much into his lack of big-time production at Marshall, the reasons for that were beyond his control. He may take a while to hit his NFL stride, but he could turn into a serviceable No. 1 after a few seasons. If he can stay healthy.
Don't get me wrong, the Colts need a big strong wideout badly, and it would be much better if he was fast. Obviously DHB fits those criteria, but I don't think he's what the Colts need.
He's really just a deep threat, but I'm not sure the Colts lack that. Yes, he did run a 4.25 forty back in the day (2009), but second-year Colts TY Hilton (4.34) is plenty fast, too. Last season, DHB was targeted 20 times on passes that were 20 yards for more through the air, going 4-181-1 with two drops. By comparison, Hilton (who was also targeted 20 times), went 10-383-6 with one drop. While Hilton was obviously the beneficiary of superior quarterback play, it was also his rookie season.
The Colts already have guys who can get yards before the catch, they need guys who can get yards after the catch. While DHB would be an improvement in that department over the since-departed Donnie Avery, he's not as good at it as many other more polished and versatile receivers.
He's also uncomfortable in the slot, is not a return man and doesn't play on special teams. He's a pretty good blocker, though.
So if DHB isn't the answer, who is? All the posturing Colts owner Jim Irsay has done on Twitter regarding acquiring a veteran receiver makes me think they plan to use their first-round pick elsewhere (please, please let it a be an edge rusher, I don't trust the talents of Erik Walden any more than I do those of the Outlaw Jerry Hughes).
Since it appears as though they have been shut out from that plan, they may have to draft a guy early. I'm pretty sure Tennessee's Cordarrelle Peterson will be gone by No. 24, but California's Keenan Allen should be available. I love the kid, and the frequent comparisons to Jordy Nelson are more than apt. But that may make him more of a really, really good No. 2 rather than the No. 1 they need to eventually replace Reggie Wayne.
Another option could be Clemson's DeAndre "Nuk" Hopkins. He has all the atlent in the world, but I'm afraid his lack of over strength and his hand use will make for a rude awakening for him in the NFL, as he'll be pressed and jammed and knocked off his routes like he never was in college.
And, to tell the truth, their forty times (4.53 for Allen and 4.57 for Nuk) disturb me.
If they wait until the third round, the best options would most likely be Tennessee Tech's Da'Rick Rogers (immaturity issues), Arkansas' Cobi Hamilton (limited upside) and Marshall's Aaron Dobson (hmmm). I really like Dobson. Don't put too much into his lack of big-time production at Marshall, the reasons for that were beyond his control. He may take a while to hit his NFL stride, but he could turn into a serviceable No. 1 after a few seasons. If he can stay healthy.
Saturday, March 23, 2013
State of the Colts: Defense
Defensive ends and defensive tackles
In: Ricky Jean-Francois
Out: None
That means: An upgrade. The Colts had some up-and-down play at these two positions last year, and the signing of RJF helps. He gets a lot of criticism because he never played a lot of snaps in San Fran, but who was he gonna put on the bench? Justin Smith, the best 3-4 lineman in the league? Or Ray McDonald, who's not far behind? Still, he;'ll have no problem finding playing time in Indy; pencil him in as a starter.
Will they draft one?: I thought they could go high here until the RJF signing. Still, they could grab a guy like Georgia Tech's underrated Izaan Cross late.
Nose tackles
In: Aubrayo Franklin
Out: Antonio Johnson*
That means: The Colts are not sure about the health of their holdovers here. Essentially, the Colts are replacing the woefully miscast Mookie Johnson at nose tackle with three new players: Besides Franklin, there's 2012 draft pick Josh Chapman and 2012 free agent-signee Brandon McKinney, both of whom missed last season with knee injuries. The fact that they signed Franklin, who'll likely start, indicates they're less than confident about Chapman and McKinney bouncing back.
Will they draft one?: Unlikely, but maybe. Franklin is a competent starter, but might not be for long. If they believe Chapman's his heir apparent, they probably won't select a nose tackle in the draft. But if they don't, they might look at a guy like Tennessee-Martin's Montori Hughes, who dominated in the Ohio Valley Conference, to develop.
Outside linebackers
In: Lawrence Sidbury, Erik Walden
Out: Dwight Freeney*, Jamaal Westerman*
That means: The Colts do not believe in conventional wisdom, or the abilities of the Outlaw Jerry Hughes. While it was obvious to all that Freeney wasn't coming back, and to most that Hughes was not a realistic replacement, the Colts surprised everyone by investing in Walden and Sidbury, two guys who have combined for 14 sacks in 116 games (that's just less than two sacks per 16 games).
Will they draft one?: I certainly hope they do. I'm pretty sure I don't have to bring up the usual suspects.
Inisde linebackers
In: None
Out: AJ Edds*, Moise Fokou
That means: The Colts are generally happy with their inside guys, which include Jerell Freeman, Pat Angerer and Kavell Conner. None of them are headed to Canton, but all are legitimate NFL starters.
Will they draft one?: Maybe, but I'd rather it were later rather than sooner. A guy like Iowa State's AJ Klein might be nice.
Cornerbacks
In: Greg Toler
Out: Jerraud Powers
That means: The turnover continues, although it should be noted that the Colts retained two other free agents, Darius Butler and Cassius Vaughn.
Will they draft one?: The Colts have an enviable top three in Vontae Davis, Toler and Butler, and have invested enough to make me think they are there for the foreseeable future. You could make a decent four and five out of Vaughn and the younger prospects on the team (Josh Gordy, Marshay Green and Teddy Williams), but if the Colts want a developmental guy to add to the competition, I like Louisiana-Lafayette's Melvin White, who could wind up at free safety.
Safeties
In: LaRon Landry
Out: Tom Zbikowski
That means: While I liked Zbikowski a lot, I'm pretty good with the Landry signing. He'll be happy to eb an ex-Jet.
Will they draft one?: Hard to say. I know the Colts have been looking at draft-eligible safeties, and Antoine Bethea is slated to become a free agent after the season, so it could happen.
State of the Colts: Offense
Sorry about the delay. So busy with work and touring to promote my new book. But now that the smoke has settled, let's look at how free agency has affected the Colts and their plans.
Quarterbacks
In: Matt Hasselbeck
Out: Drew Stanton
That means: An upgrade. Not only is Hasselbeck a superior quarterback to Stanton is just plain playing terms, he has a great deal of experience and career wins (80 to Stanton's two). He is one of the few quarterbacks around the league who actually could have something valuable to teach Andrew Luck, and his presence should be invaluable to young Chandler Harnish. And unlike Stanton, who is off chasing his quixotic dreams in the desert, Hasselbeck realizes his starter's days are behind him.
Will they draft one?: Probably not. Luck's established as the starter, and Hasselbeck should be able to help Harnish become a legitimate No. 2 before he retires.
Halfbacks
In: Nobody
Out: Deji Karim, Mewelde Moore
That means: Not a lot. Although Karim was a successful return man, he saw no time on offense. Moore did, and he was terrible.
Will they draft one?: Almost certainly. Like all Colts fans, I love Vick Ballard's effort and style, but I'm not sure the team considers him an elite back. And Goddamnit Donald Brown adds little and is unlikely to break out. There are more than a few backs that fit the Colts' system in this draft, and I know they like Texas A&M's troubled-but-talented Christine Michael. A safer pick would be Vanderbilt's Zac Stacy, but he has a lower upside.
Receivers
In: Nobody
Out: Donnie Avery, Austin Collie
That means: Things are going according to plan. After yet another season-ending injury to Collie, it was pretty clear the team expected to move on. And, although the current regime signed Avery and installed him as a started, they also watched as he was eclipsed by younger talents.
Will they draft one?: Almost certainly. Colts owner Jim Irsay led many to believe by his tweets that the team was pursuing a big-name veteran wide receiver, but no deal has emerged. They have a pretty decent little group with Reggie Wayne, TY Hilton, LaVon Brazill, Nate Palmer and Griff Whalen, but they lack size and there is no heir apparent to Wayne, who'll turn 35 this season. A first-round pick is a possibility if they fall in love with a guy like Tennessee's Justin Hunter or Clemson's DeAndre Hopkins.
Tight ends and fullbacks
In: Nobody
Out: Nobody
That means: The Colts are understandably quite please with their tight end corps.
Will they draft one?: It's not impossible. While Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener are well-entrenched as one and two, the team could add some competition to push blocker Weslye Saunders and do-everything guy Dominique Jones. A project like Rutgers' DC Jefferson, a smart former quarterback, could be worth a look.
Tackle
In: Gosder Cherilus
Out: Tony Hills, Winston Justice
That means: An upgrade. Cherilus has developed into a top right tackle, and offers much more durability than Justice.
Will they draft one?: They might. Depth is an issue as the current projected backups are much-maligned Jeff Linkenbach and youngsters Bradley Sowell and Lee Ziemba. Both starters are fairly young, so tehre could be time to develop someone like Azusa Pacific's Luke Marquardt.
Guards and centers
In: Donald Thomas
Out: Seth Olsen
That means: The team addressed one of its most serious issues.
Will they draft one?: I'd expect so. Although the team likes both Mike McGlynn and Joe Reitz, neither played well last season. Thomas should be able to hold down one spot, but the other could be in open competition. Kent State's Brian Winters could be a great addition.
Quarterbacks
In: Matt Hasselbeck
Out: Drew Stanton
That means: An upgrade. Not only is Hasselbeck a superior quarterback to Stanton is just plain playing terms, he has a great deal of experience and career wins (80 to Stanton's two). He is one of the few quarterbacks around the league who actually could have something valuable to teach Andrew Luck, and his presence should be invaluable to young Chandler Harnish. And unlike Stanton, who is off chasing his quixotic dreams in the desert, Hasselbeck realizes his starter's days are behind him.
Will they draft one?: Probably not. Luck's established as the starter, and Hasselbeck should be able to help Harnish become a legitimate No. 2 before he retires.
Halfbacks
In: Nobody
Out: Deji Karim, Mewelde Moore
That means: Not a lot. Although Karim was a successful return man, he saw no time on offense. Moore did, and he was terrible.
Will they draft one?: Almost certainly. Like all Colts fans, I love Vick Ballard's effort and style, but I'm not sure the team considers him an elite back. And Goddamnit Donald Brown adds little and is unlikely to break out. There are more than a few backs that fit the Colts' system in this draft, and I know they like Texas A&M's troubled-but-talented Christine Michael. A safer pick would be Vanderbilt's Zac Stacy, but he has a lower upside.
Receivers
In: Nobody
Out: Donnie Avery, Austin Collie
That means: Things are going according to plan. After yet another season-ending injury to Collie, it was pretty clear the team expected to move on. And, although the current regime signed Avery and installed him as a started, they also watched as he was eclipsed by younger talents.
Will they draft one?: Almost certainly. Colts owner Jim Irsay led many to believe by his tweets that the team was pursuing a big-name veteran wide receiver, but no deal has emerged. They have a pretty decent little group with Reggie Wayne, TY Hilton, LaVon Brazill, Nate Palmer and Griff Whalen, but they lack size and there is no heir apparent to Wayne, who'll turn 35 this season. A first-round pick is a possibility if they fall in love with a guy like Tennessee's Justin Hunter or Clemson's DeAndre Hopkins.
Tight ends and fullbacks
In: Nobody
Out: Nobody
That means: The Colts are understandably quite please with their tight end corps.
Will they draft one?: It's not impossible. While Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener are well-entrenched as one and two, the team could add some competition to push blocker Weslye Saunders and do-everything guy Dominique Jones. A project like Rutgers' DC Jefferson, a smart former quarterback, could be worth a look.
Tackle
In: Gosder Cherilus
Out: Tony Hills, Winston Justice
That means: An upgrade. Cherilus has developed into a top right tackle, and offers much more durability than Justice.
Will they draft one?: They might. Depth is an issue as the current projected backups are much-maligned Jeff Linkenbach and youngsters Bradley Sowell and Lee Ziemba. Both starters are fairly young, so tehre could be time to develop someone like Azusa Pacific's Luke Marquardt.
Guards and centers
In: Donald Thomas
Out: Seth Olsen
That means: The team addressed one of its most serious issues.
Will they draft one?: I'd expect so. Although the team likes both Mike McGlynn and Joe Reitz, neither played well last season. Thomas should be able to hold down one spot, but the other could be in open competition. Kent State's Brian Winters could be a great addition.
Thursday, March 14, 2013
Catching my breath on free agency
This is the point at which we all second guess the signings. This is how I categorize them:
Awesome
Darius Butler
Gosder Cherilus
Great
Donald Thomas
Greg Toler
LaRon Landry
Okay, they must know something
Ricky Jean-Francois
Lawrence Sidbury
WTF?
Erik Walden
I put Butler at the top not because he's an outstanding player, though he quite a good one, but because of how the team handled his signing. They took him off the scarp heap, allowed him to play his game, and he excelled. His reward was a contract, but it was tempered by the fact that he signed under the understanding that he would be the team's third corner. Considering the egos corners have, that's impressive.
You'll hear lots of "good riddance" and "you got swindled" by sour grapes-spewing Lions fans in reference to the Cherilus signing. Take it for what it is. Cherilus was the last first-round pick of the much-reviled Matt Millen, and he struggled as a rook, then was hit by injury. But Cherilus isn't to blame for who drafted him, nor his injuries. And although like many a tackle (look at Duane Brown, for example) who may look disastrous as a rook, he found himself later on.
I watch a lot of the Lions because of where I live, family connections to the city and because I like Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson, and I can tell you that Cherilus has made himself one of the best right tackles in the league, stalemating guys like his old rival Jared Allen.
Thomas was seen as a talent who could never put it together until he got to New England. Great, thanks for coaching him up, guys. He steps in as by far and away the most talent guard the team has had in years.
My feeling on Toler vis-à-vis Jerraud Powers are unchanged. They have similar talent levels, but Toler gets the edge because he is more physical.
I've never been a huge Landry fan because I think he's one of those guys who concentrates more on the big hit than consistently strong safety play, but, with that said, he gets the job done.
RJF? I get that he plays all three line positions, but does he do any of them particularly well?
Sidbury's a boom-or-bust guy. Full of excellent physical attributes, for sure, but the Falcons must have benched him for a reason.
Walden, Walden, Walden. I gotta say it again. They must know something I don't.
Awesome
Darius Butler
Gosder Cherilus
Great
Donald Thomas
Greg Toler
LaRon Landry
Okay, they must know something
Ricky Jean-Francois
Lawrence Sidbury
WTF?
Erik Walden
I put Butler at the top not because he's an outstanding player, though he quite a good one, but because of how the team handled his signing. They took him off the scarp heap, allowed him to play his game, and he excelled. His reward was a contract, but it was tempered by the fact that he signed under the understanding that he would be the team's third corner. Considering the egos corners have, that's impressive.
You'll hear lots of "good riddance" and "you got swindled" by sour grapes-spewing Lions fans in reference to the Cherilus signing. Take it for what it is. Cherilus was the last first-round pick of the much-reviled Matt Millen, and he struggled as a rook, then was hit by injury. But Cherilus isn't to blame for who drafted him, nor his injuries. And although like many a tackle (look at Duane Brown, for example) who may look disastrous as a rook, he found himself later on.
I watch a lot of the Lions because of where I live, family connections to the city and because I like Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson, and I can tell you that Cherilus has made himself one of the best right tackles in the league, stalemating guys like his old rival Jared Allen.
Thomas was seen as a talent who could never put it together until he got to New England. Great, thanks for coaching him up, guys. He steps in as by far and away the most talent guard the team has had in years.
My feeling on Toler vis-à-vis Jerraud Powers are unchanged. They have similar talent levels, but Toler gets the edge because he is more physical.
I've never been a huge Landry fan because I think he's one of those guys who concentrates more on the big hit than consistently strong safety play, but, with that said, he gets the job done.
RJF? I get that he plays all three line positions, but does he do any of them particularly well?
Sidbury's a boom-or-bust guy. Full of excellent physical attributes, for sure, but the Falcons must have benched him for a reason.
Walden, Walden, Walden. I gotta say it again. They must know something I don't.
Wednesday, March 13, 2013
Mo' signin's
Continuing on the free-agent front, I see that the Cardinals have signed Jerraud Powers in what now looks like a trade of talented, but injury-prone cornerbacks. As much as I like Powers, I think the Colts came out slightly ahead due to Toler's size and aggressiveness.
The Redbirds also swiped the Colts' backup quarterback Drew Stanton. I'm not sure this is a big a loss for Indy as it is for the desert-dwellers. The reason Stanton made the move, from what I hear, is that the Cards are giving him a shot at a starting job. Stanton lacks the deep accuracy and the ability to sell play action for that. He's a backup, not a guy you want to pay big money (three years, $8 million) to.
That puts the Colts in the market for a backup quarterback. Many fans have said they think the job should be handed to Chandler Harnish, but I'm not sure he's ready. The traditional thinking is that it's best to bring in a veteran to help mentor a young starter, but I'm not sure what Andrew Luck still has to learn other than some magic mojo possessed by greats like Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Recently cut erstwhile Buffalo starter Ryan Fitzpatrick is smart and wily, he could be a great pickup if he's cheap. Other than him, the free agent market looks kinda bleak with Rex Grossman at the top. Or they could use one of their few, precious draft picks on a Kirk Cousins-like rookie backup. I have a soft spot for Arizona's Matt Scott, who I think could be a dynamo in this offense, but he's not much more polished than Harnish was last year.
And another former Colt will be wearing red this season -- Donnie Avery signed with the Chiefs. It became clear earlier in the offseason that, despite his decent performance in his one season in Indy, Avery was not part of the team's future. The two receivers they drafted last year have much higher upsides and are slim speedsters in the same mold as Avery. If the Colts wanted to sign a receiver, I'm sure their preference would be for a bigger, stronger guy.
And another now former Colt, Moise Fokou, will be in the powder blue of the Flaming Thumbtacks. Fokou's certainly not a bad player, but not a difference-maker, and one who played a decreasing number of snaps last season. It should not be hard to replace the team's fourth-best option at inside linebacker.
So, correct me if I'm wrong, but does the starting lineup look like this?
QB Andrew Luck
HB Vick Ballard
WR TY Hilton
TE Dwayne Allen
RT Gosder Cherilus
RG Joe Reitz
C Samson Satale
LG Donald Thomas
LT Anthony Castonzo
TE Coby Fleener
WR Reggie Wayne
RDE Fili Moala
NT Josh Chapman
LDE Cory Redding
ROLB Erik Walden
RILB Kavell Conner
LILB Jerell Freeman
LOLB Robert Mathis
RCB Greg Toler
LCB Vontae Davis
SS Tom Zbikowski
FS Antoine Bethea
The Redbirds also swiped the Colts' backup quarterback Drew Stanton. I'm not sure this is a big a loss for Indy as it is for the desert-dwellers. The reason Stanton made the move, from what I hear, is that the Cards are giving him a shot at a starting job. Stanton lacks the deep accuracy and the ability to sell play action for that. He's a backup, not a guy you want to pay big money (three years, $8 million) to.
That puts the Colts in the market for a backup quarterback. Many fans have said they think the job should be handed to Chandler Harnish, but I'm not sure he's ready. The traditional thinking is that it's best to bring in a veteran to help mentor a young starter, but I'm not sure what Andrew Luck still has to learn other than some magic mojo possessed by greats like Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Recently cut erstwhile Buffalo starter Ryan Fitzpatrick is smart and wily, he could be a great pickup if he's cheap. Other than him, the free agent market looks kinda bleak with Rex Grossman at the top. Or they could use one of their few, precious draft picks on a Kirk Cousins-like rookie backup. I have a soft spot for Arizona's Matt Scott, who I think could be a dynamo in this offense, but he's not much more polished than Harnish was last year.
And another former Colt will be wearing red this season -- Donnie Avery signed with the Chiefs. It became clear earlier in the offseason that, despite his decent performance in his one season in Indy, Avery was not part of the team's future. The two receivers they drafted last year have much higher upsides and are slim speedsters in the same mold as Avery. If the Colts wanted to sign a receiver, I'm sure their preference would be for a bigger, stronger guy.
And another now former Colt, Moise Fokou, will be in the powder blue of the Flaming Thumbtacks. Fokou's certainly not a bad player, but not a difference-maker, and one who played a decreasing number of snaps last season. It should not be hard to replace the team's fourth-best option at inside linebacker.
So, correct me if I'm wrong, but does the starting lineup look like this?
QB Andrew Luck
HB Vick Ballard
WR TY Hilton
TE Dwayne Allen
RT Gosder Cherilus
RG Joe Reitz
C Samson Satale
LG Donald Thomas
LT Anthony Castonzo
TE Coby Fleener
WR Reggie Wayne
RDE Fili Moala
NT Josh Chapman
LDE Cory Redding
ROLB Erik Walden
RILB Kavell Conner
LILB Jerell Freeman
LOLB Robert Mathis
RCB Greg Toler
LCB Vontae Davis
SS Tom Zbikowski
FS Antoine Bethea
Tuesday, March 12, 2013
Free agent frenzy
There will be a lot of sad faces in Coltsville today. many of the free agents Indy fans have been public in their desire for signed elsewhere right away. Paul Kruger is a Brown, Andy Levitre a Flaming Thumbtack and Louis Vasquez will be protecting Peyton Manning in Colorado.
Perhaps more important is the fact that the team could not come to a deal with Jerraud Powers before he hit the open market. It's sad, because he's a quality player and guy, but the Colts brass are too smart to pay two guys No. 1 corner money.
As I write this (I'm at work), the announcement just came through that through that the Colts signed former first-round pick Gosder Cherilus. Although he'd had some problems with injuries and speed rushers in the past, he was outstanding for the Lions last season at right tackle, especially in pass defense. He's a plug-and-play starter, so his presence and the tender offer to Jeff Linkenbach make the likelihood of the team re-signed Winston Justice slim. Too bad, great guy, but Cherlius represents an upgrade.
Cherlius is still young-ish (28), but has a lot of miles on his tires. An excellent pass blocker and plus run blocker, his biggest liabilities are his penchant for penalties, and his injury history. He was arrested once for his part in a bar brawl years ago, but does not seem like a character risk at all. I'm not sure how big the contract is, but it's for five years, so it's probably quite large.
And now it's come to my attention that an old favorite of mine, Greg Toler, has signed with the Colts. Arizona's third corner last season after recovering from a nasty ACL tear in 2011, he played very well. According to ProFootballFocus.com, he allowed just a 41.4 completion percentage for a 51.5 passer rating. He also graded out as the team's best corner in run support.
Better in man than zone coverage, Toler is big and strong enough to make a real impression as a press corner. Many fans will probably expect him to be a slot guy, but he's way more effective outside. Three years at $15 million makes me think he's expected to start opposite Vontae Davis. I'm okay with that.
Lawrence Sidbury is interesting. Coming out of college, he was a much-desired pass-rushing prospect in 2009. He seems to have all the tools, and appeared to be emerging as a pass-rushing force in 2010 with four sacks, but the Falcons benched him and he added just one more sack in two years, playing sparingly. I don't know why the Falcons soured on him, just that they did.
He'll get a chance to compete, but does not look like the pass rusher the Colts need to make the next step.
The Colts also added much-traveled guard Donald Thomas. He had some issues, especially in pass protection, in the past, but played very well with the Patriots last season. An accomplished run blocker (contrary to common opinion, smaller guards often excel in the running game). If he's as good as he looked last season, the Colts have a strong candidate to start at guard.
I'm not nearly as nuts about another Colts' signing, outside linebacker Erik Walden. A college DE who's spent some time in Dallas, KC and Green Bay, Walden has collected just nine sacks in 66 games played. Last season in Green Bay, he played a lot and showed a few flashes, but nothing I got excited about. Not much against the run, but pretty decent in coverage. Since the Colts gave him $16 million for four years, they must see something I don't.
And he spent a weekend in jail for allegedly punching out his girlfriend.
Late note: The Colts also re-signed Darius Butler. Yisssss.
Perhaps more important is the fact that the team could not come to a deal with Jerraud Powers before he hit the open market. It's sad, because he's a quality player and guy, but the Colts brass are too smart to pay two guys No. 1 corner money.
As I write this (I'm at work), the announcement just came through that through that the Colts signed former first-round pick Gosder Cherilus. Although he'd had some problems with injuries and speed rushers in the past, he was outstanding for the Lions last season at right tackle, especially in pass defense. He's a plug-and-play starter, so his presence and the tender offer to Jeff Linkenbach make the likelihood of the team re-signed Winston Justice slim. Too bad, great guy, but Cherlius represents an upgrade.
Cherlius is still young-ish (28), but has a lot of miles on his tires. An excellent pass blocker and plus run blocker, his biggest liabilities are his penchant for penalties, and his injury history. He was arrested once for his part in a bar brawl years ago, but does not seem like a character risk at all. I'm not sure how big the contract is, but it's for five years, so it's probably quite large.
And now it's come to my attention that an old favorite of mine, Greg Toler, has signed with the Colts. Arizona's third corner last season after recovering from a nasty ACL tear in 2011, he played very well. According to ProFootballFocus.com, he allowed just a 41.4 completion percentage for a 51.5 passer rating. He also graded out as the team's best corner in run support.
Better in man than zone coverage, Toler is big and strong enough to make a real impression as a press corner. Many fans will probably expect him to be a slot guy, but he's way more effective outside. Three years at $15 million makes me think he's expected to start opposite Vontae Davis. I'm okay with that.
Lawrence Sidbury is interesting. Coming out of college, he was a much-desired pass-rushing prospect in 2009. He seems to have all the tools, and appeared to be emerging as a pass-rushing force in 2010 with four sacks, but the Falcons benched him and he added just one more sack in two years, playing sparingly. I don't know why the Falcons soured on him, just that they did.
He'll get a chance to compete, but does not look like the pass rusher the Colts need to make the next step.
The Colts also added much-traveled guard Donald Thomas. He had some issues, especially in pass protection, in the past, but played very well with the Patriots last season. An accomplished run blocker (contrary to common opinion, smaller guards often excel in the running game). If he's as good as he looked last season, the Colts have a strong candidate to start at guard.
I'm not nearly as nuts about another Colts' signing, outside linebacker Erik Walden. A college DE who's spent some time in Dallas, KC and Green Bay, Walden has collected just nine sacks in 66 games played. Last season in Green Bay, he played a lot and showed a few flashes, but nothing I got excited about. Not much against the run, but pretty decent in coverage. Since the Colts gave him $16 million for four years, they must see something I don't.
And he spent a weekend in jail for allegedly punching out his girlfriend.
Late note: The Colts also re-signed Darius Butler. Yisssss.
Thursday, March 7, 2013
Love me tender
The Colts announced today that they will be offering tender offers to restricted free agents Jeff Linkenbach and Cassius Vaughn, and to as exclusive-rights free agents Joe Reitz, Martin Tevaseu and Josh Gordy.
Before we get into details, I think it's important to point out that they did not offer tenders to Seth Olsen, AJ Edds or Deji Karim. Olsen and Edds aren't surprising -- Olsen has been ineffective and Edds, though talented, is injury-prone -- but Karim is an explosive return man, something none of the other players on the roster have proven to be yet.
I know lots of Colts fans are unhappy to see Linkenbach return, but I think he deserves a shot to compete for a roster spot if not a starting job. Similarly, Vaughn had some rough stretches last season when he was called upon to start, but could be an effective depth player.
Reitz, though not great, was probably the Colts' best guard last season, and he's still learning the position. Getting him back is very important. Tevaseu is a depth-only guy, but with two of the three nose tackles ahead of him coming back from severe injuries and the other an unrestricted free agent the Colts are not likely to re-sign, having him back at a bargain-basement price is a wise idea. Gordy had some nasty burns in coverage last season, but still has some potential and isn't a bad special-teams guy. Again, bring him back is a prudent move.
Before we get into details, I think it's important to point out that they did not offer tenders to Seth Olsen, AJ Edds or Deji Karim. Olsen and Edds aren't surprising -- Olsen has been ineffective and Edds, though talented, is injury-prone -- but Karim is an explosive return man, something none of the other players on the roster have proven to be yet.
I know lots of Colts fans are unhappy to see Linkenbach return, but I think he deserves a shot to compete for a roster spot if not a starting job. Similarly, Vaughn had some rough stretches last season when he was called upon to start, but could be an effective depth player.
Reitz, though not great, was probably the Colts' best guard last season, and he's still learning the position. Getting him back is very important. Tevaseu is a depth-only guy, but with two of the three nose tackles ahead of him coming back from severe injuries and the other an unrestricted free agent the Colts are not likely to re-sign, having him back at a bargain-basement price is a wise idea. Gordy had some nasty burns in coverage last season, but still has some potential and isn't a bad special-teams guy. Again, bring him back is a prudent move.
Cut veterans
The free-agent market is rapidly expanding as teams cut veterans or tell free agents not to expect an offer. Anyone who reads even just a little ColtPlay knows I'm skeptical when it comes to signing veteran free agents, but a few makes some sense. One has kind of piqued my interest.
Eric Winston is a top-of-the-line right tackle who has been cut twice in two years for reasons related to the salary cap. Aside from a few too many penalties, Winston is a consummate right tackle as both a run and pass blocker. He's a good person, a team guy and he won't turn 30 until around midseason. The Colts would be an excellent landing place for him, especially if he'd like to get some measure of revenge against Houston, which surprised him with his release after a stellar 2011 campaign.
Many of the other veteran options don't seem like good fits for the Colts. A case could be made for some. Michael Jenkins has some great skills, but lacks the toughness to be the big receiver the Colts need. Dunta Robinson (an old favorite of mine) was burned very badly last year, and looks very much like he's lost his mojo. Michael Turner is interesting as a blocking and short-yardage option, but his days as a feature back are in the past. Stewart Bradley's history of injuries make him a non-starter. Gerald Sensabaugh has some skills, but is not a sure tackler or intimidating hitter. John Abraham can totally still bring it, but is 35 and coming off some injuries (which he played through). He has played outside linebacker in the 3-4 in college, but that was back in 1999 when Andrew Luck was in fifth grade.
Other than those guys, not much is out there.
Eric Winston is a top-of-the-line right tackle who has been cut twice in two years for reasons related to the salary cap. Aside from a few too many penalties, Winston is a consummate right tackle as both a run and pass blocker. He's a good person, a team guy and he won't turn 30 until around midseason. The Colts would be an excellent landing place for him, especially if he'd like to get some measure of revenge against Houston, which surprised him with his release after a stellar 2011 campaign.
Many of the other veteran options don't seem like good fits for the Colts. A case could be made for some. Michael Jenkins has some great skills, but lacks the toughness to be the big receiver the Colts need. Dunta Robinson (an old favorite of mine) was burned very badly last year, and looks very much like he's lost his mojo. Michael Turner is interesting as a blocking and short-yardage option, but his days as a feature back are in the past. Stewart Bradley's history of injuries make him a non-starter. Gerald Sensabaugh has some skills, but is not a sure tackler or intimidating hitter. John Abraham can totally still bring it, but is 35 and coming off some injuries (which he played through). He has played outside linebacker in the 3-4 in college, but that was back in 1999 when Andrew Luck was in fifth grade.
Other than those guys, not much is out there.
Monday, March 4, 2013
Catching up
Sorry about the time off, busy with books and publication bans and all kinds of other mishegoss.
First on the agenda has got to be reports that the Colts are actively seeking to sign a pair of defensive backs -- Cary Williams and Ed Reed -- from the Ravens. The reports seem less backed in fact than they do from speculation based on the facts that the Colts need defensive backs and that Colts head coach Chuck Pagano is familiar with both players as a former defensive coordinator of the Ravens. Add to taht the fact that the Ravens are cap-strapped after having made Joe Flacco the highest-paid player in NFL history, and it makes great sense.
I like Williams, but I think his price tag will be inflated after his great performances in the playoffs and Super Bowl. He'll command a long-term, top-dollar contract, and I'm not 100 percent sure he's worth it. His presence would no doubt improve the secondary, but I'd balk if he's expecting franchise-tag numbers. I'm even less sure about Reed. Although his leadership qualities and experience are undeniable, I'm pretty sure I saw him begin to decline last season. If they do sign him, and they could well, the shorter the contract (and the less guaranteed money) the better.
***
As far as keeping their own free agents is concerned, the media consensus is that the Colts are concentrating on cornerback Jerraud Powers first, defensive lineman Fili Moala second and corner Darius Butler third. That kind of makes sense since Powers has No. 1 potential when he's healthy, Moala fits the system well and was very promising before he went down last season and Butler player like an all-star last season (but only after years of being beaten while playing for other teams).
Of course, that came after the team placed a franchise tag on Pat McAfee. Both sides have said they they want to work out an equitable long-term deal, and they probably will. I can't say often enough how imporatnt McAfee is to the team, and it would be a horrible mistake to let him go.
So where does that leave the rest of the Colts free agents? Outside looking in.
***
Everyone's talking about the Mike Chappell Jim Irsay interview. The big revelations about Bill Polian being open to trading Peyton Manning in 2004 and about how the 2012 draft would have unfolded if the Colts did not have the first pick certainly are interesting, but, since they are both based on what-if scenarios, not taht important in any real sense.
First on the agenda has got to be reports that the Colts are actively seeking to sign a pair of defensive backs -- Cary Williams and Ed Reed -- from the Ravens. The reports seem less backed in fact than they do from speculation based on the facts that the Colts need defensive backs and that Colts head coach Chuck Pagano is familiar with both players as a former defensive coordinator of the Ravens. Add to taht the fact that the Ravens are cap-strapped after having made Joe Flacco the highest-paid player in NFL history, and it makes great sense.
I like Williams, but I think his price tag will be inflated after his great performances in the playoffs and Super Bowl. He'll command a long-term, top-dollar contract, and I'm not 100 percent sure he's worth it. His presence would no doubt improve the secondary, but I'd balk if he's expecting franchise-tag numbers. I'm even less sure about Reed. Although his leadership qualities and experience are undeniable, I'm pretty sure I saw him begin to decline last season. If they do sign him, and they could well, the shorter the contract (and the less guaranteed money) the better.
***
As far as keeping their own free agents is concerned, the media consensus is that the Colts are concentrating on cornerback Jerraud Powers first, defensive lineman Fili Moala second and corner Darius Butler third. That kind of makes sense since Powers has No. 1 potential when he's healthy, Moala fits the system well and was very promising before he went down last season and Butler player like an all-star last season (but only after years of being beaten while playing for other teams).
Of course, that came after the team placed a franchise tag on Pat McAfee. Both sides have said they they want to work out an equitable long-term deal, and they probably will. I can't say often enough how imporatnt McAfee is to the team, and it would be a horrible mistake to let him go.
So where does that leave the rest of the Colts free agents? Outside looking in.
***
Everyone's talking about the Mike Chappell Jim Irsay interview. The big revelations about Bill Polian being open to trading Peyton Manning in 2004 and about how the 2012 draft would have unfolded if the Colts did not have the first pick certainly are interesting, but, since they are both based on what-if scenarios, not taht important in any real sense.
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