Sunday, January 20, 2013

Colts 2013 free agents: Donnie Avery


2012 stats: 60-781-3 receiving, 4-90 rushing

When the Colts signed Donnie Avery last offseason, the obvious question was: Which Donnie Avery were they getting? When he was drafted, Avery was a lightning-quick speed receiver who was a bit sloppy in every aspect of his game. Then he suffered an ACL injury, was cut by the Rams and showed up with the Titans looking like a stumble-bum who couldn't catch a cold.

The truth is that the Colts got neither. But what they did get was much closer to the first option. Although Avery didn't show the speed and crispness of his first two seasons, he looked a little smarter and a whole lot tougher than he did then. He looked very little like the Titan we'd all rather forget.

Avery appeared in all 16 regular-season games, and starting 15 of them (and the Wild Card game). In fact, he played more downs than any Colt except Andrew Luck, Anthony Castonzo, Mike McGlynn and Reggie Wayne.

He showed some flashes of greatness — like when he caught the game-winning touchdown pass on fourth down with no time left to beat the Lions — but was generally an average starter at best. Luck had a 73.5 quarterback rating throwing to him, due in a large part to the fact that Avery caught just 53.57 percent of his passes, and dropped 12 of them. He was particularly uncertain of deep routes, catching just six of 25 attempts over 20 yards for no scores with four drops.

As the season went on, Avery was still out there on virtually every offensive play, but more and more passes that might have gone his way were going instead towards the Colts' rookies like TY Hilton and LaVon Brazill (not to mention tight ends Dwane Allen and Coby Fleener).

There are a couple of other concerns when it comes to Avery's value to the team. He doesn't play on special teams, and he's less comfortable in the slot than he outside, reducing his versatility.

Will other teams bid for him?: Probably, but not many. They will be aware of the same concerns the Colts have with Avery. And, if the Colts want to retain him, they would probably have to pay a significant amount more to pry him from a good situation he has there.

Chances he'll be back: Not good. Although Avery did much more than most observers expected, he's been eclipsed by Hilton, and Brazill is not far behind. Both of them are returners of note, and neither has any problem playing the slot. And since new offensive coordinator is adding more West Coast elements to the attack, the Colts are likely to look for receivers who specialize in getting yards after the catch, and that was Avery's weakest point in 2012. Even if the Colts don't draft a wide receiver, Avery would face a stiff training-camp battle for the fourth receiver spot from Griff Whalen — a favorite of both Luck and Hamilton. And there are few, if any fifth receivers who don't contribute on special teams.



1 comment:

Roy said...

Welcome back, Jerry.

There did seem to be a lot of inconsistency in Avery's game, particularly with his drops.