With the 64th pick of the NFL draft, the Colts select ...

Okay, so under ColtPlay’s little plan, the Colts have drafted Stanford’s Andrew Luck and Clemson’s Brandon Thompson, filling holes at quarterback and nose tackle respectively. But that still leaves crying needs at cornerback and tight end, and less desperate openings at inside linebacker, wide receiver, fullback and guard.

With their third-round pick (No. 64 overall), the Colts could fill their need with a receiving tight end by grabbing Georgia’s Orson Charles (6024/251/4.75). He’s an accomplished pass-catcher with very good blocking skills and a history of making lots of yards after the catch. Once considered a potential first rounder, Charles’ stock has been seriously downgraded by a recent DUI arrest, and a terrible pro day in which he ran a 4.90 forty. Charles is an honor roller, his pro day was in high winds and he always played fast on the field, though, so I think he’ll make a fine pro.

More likely, however, the Colts will address their crying need at cornerback. Three prospects stand out. Montana’s Trumaine Johnson (6017/204/4.61) certainly has the look of a No. 1 corner, but his disappointing forty at the Combine will have many teams wondering if he’s worth a premium pick. And it’s a big jump from Montana to the NFL. Still, he recorded better agility numbers than most of the smaller corners. In the proper scheme, he could excel if his head is screwed on right; but there’s no guarantee of that. Georgia’s Brandon Boykin (5090/182/dnr) has everything you want from a corner other than size and durability. While his ceiling is Antoine Winfield, his cellar is probably Jason David (okay, that was mean, more like Justin Tryon). He is, however, an outstanding return man, something else the talent-poor Colts need. He’s also a terrific little blitzer and has made significant contributions on offense. Similarly, Louisiana-Lafayette’s Dwight “Bill” Bentley (5100/182/4.43) is undersized and has injury issues, but is a top talent who looked like an NFL veteran at the Senior Bowl. He does not have Boykin’s return ability, though.

So when it gets down to it, the Colts will have to choose from Charles and his great ability and questionable measurements (and perhaps decisions), When it comes to the corners, you have Johnson with high upside but his questions and the two little guys. Bentley looks more NFL ready to me (based on his Senior Bowl practices and performances), but Boykin’s return ability is worth the pick alone, and he looks likely to be a very good NFL corner, if not a No. 1.

If he checks out as healthy, the Colts would be smart to pick Boykin.

With the 34th pick, the Colts select ...

Earlier, I pointed out that the Colts have seven starting spots open. And, almost certainly, you can bet that the Colts will expect to fill one of those holes with the second pick in the draft. I think we can safely assume that the team will select a quarterback in the first round, filling that spot. And we should take GM Ryan Grigson at his word when he says the starting flanker job is Donnie Avery’s to lose. That brings the choices down to five. There’s no way the Colts will draft a fullback that high, so the choices are (In order of how desperate I think they are): Nose tackle, cornerback, tight end and right inside linebacker.

I think there’s only one tight end who merits being picked that high, and that’s Stanford’s Colby Fleener (6060/247/4.51). Pairing his with potential first-round pick and college teammate Andrew Luck would go a long way to kick-starting the new offense. Unfortunately, I also think Fleener’s postseason workouts and interviews (not to mention the current fever for pass-catching tight ends) have vaulted him into the first round. Grabbing Fleener in the second round should be a no-brainer for the Colts, but he probably won’t be there.

Likewise, the only linebacker prospect I like high is Alabama’s Dont’a Hightower (6022/265/4.68). And, as with Fleener, I doubt he will escape the first round.

At corner, there are several prospects, but none who really stands out.  I like both Central Florida’s Josh Robinson (5101/199/4.52) and Nebraska’s Alfonzo Dennard (5100/204/4.55), but neither has the skills to be a real shut down guy. Don’t get me wrong, I think either could be long-time NFL starters, but just not elite guys. If South Carolina’s Stephon Gilmore (6004/190/4.40) somehow falls out of the first round, I’d grab him without a thought.

There is a nose tackle prospect who fits in Clemson’s Brandon Thompson (6020/314/4.96). Despite the usual dearth of legitimate nose tackle prospects these days, Thompson could easily survive the first round because of his liabilities as a pass rusher. That doesn’t bother me, though. I picture him as a two-down guy, manning the middle on first and second down, and coming out on third when the Colts would presumably line up Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney as ends and Cory Redding and Drake Nevis or Fili Moala inside. The other question about Thompson has been conditioning (as it always is with nose men), but any pro prospect who also made his college’s honor roll gets my approval for his work ethic. The only things that could get in the way of the Colts picking Thompson are: a) if a Fleener or Gilmore drops into their laps, b) if they think they can get a quality nose man later on and c) if they sign a free agent nose tackle like Antonio Garay.

The Colts have plenty of options with their second round pick, essentially because they have so many holes to fill. While Fleener and Gilmore are the guys I like the best, realistically, I think the pick is Thompson.

Fighting boredom through statistics

Some stats you may have missed from 2011:

Of the eight passes he attempted of 20 yards or more, Kerry Collins completed none.

When under pressure, Collins was about half as likely to be sacked as younger, more mobile Curtis Painter or Dan Orlovsky.

In about the same number of touches, Donald Brown forced 18 missed tackles to Joseph Addai’s 10.

In 118 attempts, Addai ran for more than 20 yards just three times.

Addai and Delone Carter were poor pass blockers. Addai allowed two sacks and three hurries, while Carter allowed three hurries and a hit in far less playing time.

Only four players lined up at wide receiver last season.

Five of the 92 passes thrown to Austin Collie were intercepted.

Two passes were thrown to Anthony Gonzalez, of which one was catchable. He dropped it.

Although less than a quarter of his playing time was in the slot, both of the passes thrown to Gonzalez were when he lined up there.

Dallas Clark dropped almost 20 percent of passes he touched.

Only twice did a tight end get targeted on a route of more than 20 yards, resulting in no catches.

Quinn Ojinnaka came in as a blocking tight end 20 times.

Ben Ijalana lined up at tackle for 21 snaps, Ryan Diem for 36. Ijalana allowed only one pressure.

Jeff Linekenbach was a disastrous pass blocker, allowing nine sacks, four hits and 35 pressures. But he was nowhere near as bad as Seth Olsen, who allowed a sack, two hits and a hurry in just 16 snaps.

Jeff Saturday played every down at center.

Antonio Johnson made 15 tackles as a defensive tackle, but whiffed on three others.

Jerry Hughes had just a sack and two hurries at end.

Dwight Freeney made just five tackles on running plays all season.

Phillip Wheeler blitzed just 13 times all season, but came up with the only sack by an outside linebacker.

The less said about Ernie Sims, the better.

Kevin Thomas made four tackles in the run game, missed three others.

Except for Justin Tryon, everybody who played corner for the Colts allowed a passer rating of 98.2 or better. Brandon king was the worst at 137.6.

Jerraud Powers was much better covering outside receivers than slot guys.

Terrance Johnson was the only corner to blitz: he did it twice, resulting in a hurry.

David Caldwell led the team in missed tackles with six.

Of the new Colts:

Donnie Avery dropped two of just five catchable passes thrown his way.

Winston Justice allowed just one hurry last season (although he started just one game and played a bit of another).

Mike McGlynn allowed one sack, one hit and seven hurries as a third guard in Cincinnati.

Samson Satele had a decent year in Oakland last season, allowing two sacks a hit and 11 hurries in 16 starts.

Cory Redding’s five sacks, eight hits and 10 hurries were more productive than all of the Colts’ defensive tackles put together last season. He was also, statistically speaking, the Ravens’ best run-stopper at end.

Tom Zbikowski did not have a banner season last year, but his passer efficiency rating is 30 points lower than the Colts’ primary starter at his position last season, Caldwell.

Job openings

With the Colts’ roster effectively gutted by cuts and free agency, there are some gaping holes in the lineup. In fact, I have identified seven positions at which a new starter is needed.

Quarterback: Of the four quarterbacks who played for the Colts last season, all of them are gone. And one of them was Peyton Manning. The best player at the position right now is Drew Stanton. Mitigating factor: The Colts will almost certainly select Andrew Luck with the first pick of the draft.

Nose Tackle: Aside from a dozen or so games from Booger McFarland, the Colts have not had a good nose man since Leo Wisniewski. Anyone who thinks there’s a nose tackle prospect on the roster is doing a height/weight projection and probably does not know that much about what nose tackles actually do.

Right cornerback: This is kind of specious, actually, to say that the Colts need a No. 2 corner, because their No. 1 corner, Jerraud Powers, would be a No. 2 on just about any other team. The other corners under contract have played poorly, but some have upside. Mitigating factor: The Colts are said to be pursuing Asante Samuel, a true No. 1 corner.

Flanker: Of course I love Austin Collie (we were even born on the same hospital), but he lacks the speed and post-up qualities of a true outside man. And that’s not even factoring in his persistent concussion problems. Counting on Donnie Avery as a starter outside would be foolhardy at best.

Tight end: The Colts top two tight ends from last year — Dallas Clark and Jacob Tamme — are gone, leaving behind just Brody Eldgridge. He was drafted as a blocking tight end and has been something of a disappointment at that, while recording just 14 receptions for 84 yards and no touchdowns. A rookie quarterback will almost certainly lean heavily on his tight end next season, especially because of the dearth of receivers and the poor receiving skills of the backs on the roster.

Right inside linebacker: The Colts were hardly a linebacker-rich team and have since cut longtime starter Gary Brackett and look like they’ll lose Phillip Wheeler, who actually came into his own last season and would be a good fit for the new hybrid 3-4 scheme. The outside linebackers in the base set will be former ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis (a shaky premise that!), and one of the inside guys will be athletic, active Pat Angerer, even though he’s much smaller than most 3-4 inside guys. But the other could be anyone. Street free agent AJ Edds did a fairly nice job last season as a fill-in, but I’m not sure he’s a fulltime starter.

Fullback: The Colts have two fullbacks — Chris Gronkowski and Ryan Mahaffy — already under contract, but neither looks ready to hold down a fulltime gig.

Keeping up

In other news:

• GM Ryan Grigson say the Colts will use a fullback extensively nest season. I could not be happier. The offense picked up last season after they began to use a fullback, in a large part because Donal Brown became a much more effective runner. And since Joseph Addai was cut recently, it looks like Brown is the team’s feature back at least for the time being.

• The Colts received three compensatory draft picks, including the last pick of the entire draft. The picks are: 5/170, 6/206 and 7/253. Perhaps one of them could get a nice blocking fullback Chad Diehl.

• Grigson also said the Dwight Freeney will be a Colt next year. Makes sense. The new defense is based on exactly the kind of pressure he and Robert Mathis bring. Okay, coverage will be awful, but that’s the safeties’ job, right?

• If the season started today … there would be a huge investigation. But seriously, if it did, these would be the Colts’ starters:

QB Drew Stanton

FB Chris Gronkowski

HB Donald Brown

FL Reggie Wayne

TE Brody Eldridge

RT Winston Justice

RG Ben Ijalana

C Samson Satele

LG Mike McGlynn

LT Anthony Castonzo

SE Austin Collie

RDE Cory Redding

NT Antonio Johnson

LDE Fili Moala or Drake Nevis

ROLB Dwight Freeney

RILB Pat Angerer

LILB AJ Edds

LOLB Robert Mathis

RCB Terrance Johnson or Chris Rucker

LCB Jerraud Powers

SS Tom Zbikowski

FS Antoine Bethea

Back, but not with a vengeance

Hey guys, anything happen while I was gone? Just kidding. Being too busy and taking a flyer on a blog aggregator put ColtPlay down for a while, but it’s back. Let’s kick off the 2012 kibbitzing season with a look at the Colts’ offseason moves thus far.

Re-signing Robert Mathis (left)
Meh. Sure, Mathis is a great pass-rusher, but he’s never really played with his hand off the ground and I’m not sure signing a 31-year-old to a big-buck (four years/$36 million) really fits the whole rebuilding schtick.

Signed AQ Shipley, Jake Kirkpatrick and Trevor Vittatoe 
Meh. The more in camp the merrier. But none of these guys look to make a huge impact, though Kirkpatrick could surprise.


Cut Dallas Clark, Curtis Painter, Gary Brackett, Melvin Bullitt and Joseph Addai 
Yay. Okay, I might have kept Clark to help ease in the new quarterback, especially since there’s precious little else at the position on the roster. But the other cuts were spot on. Brackett had lost his job, made a huge salary and would not fit in the new scheme. Bullitt was injury-prone and only modestly effective when healthy. I’ve never been an Addai guy, and think the team can improve at the position. And Painter’s just no damn good.

Re-signed Reggie Wayne 
Yay. I would have rather kept younger, faster Pierre Garçon (who was signed by Washington), but Wayne at least provides a set of sure hands and proper route running for the new passer.


Traded for Winston Justice 
Yay. The biggest problem Justice has had in his career is that he looks so much like the perfect left tackle, but can only play right tackle well. That’s okay for a team like the Colts that already has a left tackle and a crying need for a right tackle. There are two reasons why I think this was a terrific trade: a) since the Colts new GM Ryan Grigson knows him well from his days as an Eagle, he comes with the stamp of approval of someone with intimate knowledge of his game and character, and b) he cost the team almost nothing.

Signed Cory Redding 
Yay. The Colts have long needed size and strength on the D-line, and Redding provides both. He can line up at left end on three-man fronts, and shift inside on four-man fronts. Experience in the scheme helps too.

Signed Tom Zbikowski 
Yay. Zbikowski is a capable strong safety, certainly a huge improvement over Bullitt.


Signed Mike McGlynn 
Meh. Another former Eagle, McGlynn is pencilled in as the starting left guard. He did start one year in Philadelphia with uninspiring results. Still, it’s unlikely he’ll make fans pine for the days of Mike Pollak and Jamey Richard.


Signed Samson Satele 
Meh. Yes, I know the Colts needed a center since Jeff Saturday signed with the Packers, but I’m not sure this is a the guy. Putting character issues aside, he’s an adequate starter who can be handled by big guys.

Traded for Drew Stanton 
Ugh. While he cost almost nothing, I’m not impressed. Remember the 0-16 2008 Detroit Lions? After starter Jon Kitna went down, they handed the ball to Daunte Culpepper. And after he was hurt, their man was Dan Orlovsky (the man Stanton is effectively replacing in Indy). Stanton got the garbagiest of all garbage time. Since then, he has failed to get past Shaun Hill for the right to hope Matthew Stafford gets hurt again. His happy feet, streakiness and accuracy challenges remind me too much of Painter for me to feel comfortable about this.


Signed Donnie Avery 
Yay. A former second-round pick who once ran a 4.27 forty, Avery has had injury, drop and separation issues after a quick start to his career. He’ll never have great hands, but if his speed returns now that his ACL injury is well behind him, he could be a surprise contributor outside or perhaps as a return man.