Friday, February 6, 2009

Know Your Colts: Quarterbacks

ColtPlay is a huge fan of Stampede Blue. It’s an awesome site every Colts fan should visit every single day (at least). It has great news, insight and opinions. And you have to like their columnist shake n bake’s analysis of the Colts’ quarterback position:

“We all know what's up with the QBs on the roster (Peyton-awesome, Sorgi-not so much) so straight to the Draft.”

He’s right, but ColtPlay knows its readers will demand a longer article. And I’m used to being paid by the word, so …


18 Peyton Manning
Numbers: 6047/228/4.87c in 98
2008 stats: 16 games played/16 games started (12-4), 555-371-4,002-27-12 passing (sacked 14-86), 20-21-1 rushing, 1/0 fumbles/lost 2008 preseason stats: None Status: Signed through 2012

Manning is, as Stampede Blue pointed out, awesome. In fact, he may be the best quarterback in NFL history. Even if he isn’t, the fact that we can say that with a straight face indicates that there’s little wrong with him. Actually, if you break his game down, you’ll see that he’s at the elite level in every category except perhaps running with the ball, although he’s surprisingly good at that (and I’m not sure how good an idea it is to run your quarterback these days anyway).

Since he scores highest in the categories reflected by the mental aspect of the game, there’s little reason to believe he’ll slow down soon. And of course, there’s his legendary durability. Y’know, Manning has only missed one regular-season snap in his entire 10-year NFL career, and that was for a broken jaw!

So that’s why Colts fans were in shock and disbelief last summer when it was announced that a bursa sac problem would keep Manning out of the preseason. And, in fact, when the regular season started, Manning looked off — his mobility was severely limited and his aim was more than a little off.

Although both the Colts and Manning himself were secretive about the injury, even the most casual observers could see Manning improve as the season went along. The Colts were 3-4 after seven games, then they won the next nine in a row. And Manning, handicapped with perhaps the league’s worst running game and a so-so defense, basically just put the Colts on his back and carried them into the playoffs.

Take a look at this chart of Manning’s passer rating progress:


The red games are losses, the blue ones are wins/ You can see that — other than a few aberrations like the inexplicable Cleveland game — the trend was upward. And take another look at that chart. Look how often he was over 100. For a little perspective, only one quarterback finished the season over 100, and only four (Manning was one of them) finished with better than 95.

Manning won the MVP. I can only congratulate the voters on their astute choice.


12 Jim Sorgi
Numbers: 6037/207/4.68pd in 04
2008 stats: 1 game played/0 games started, 30-22-178-0-0 passing (sacked 0-0), 5-8-0 rushing 2008 preseason stats: 3 games played/3 games started, 31-20-198-0-1 passing (sacked 3-16), 2-11-0 rushing, 1/1 fumbles/lost Status: Signed through 2010

It’s hard to make too many observations about Sorgi from what we’ve seen of him in the pros. He’s always playing against second- or third-stringers whether it’s the preseason or some useless regular season ender in which Manning handles the first possession or two to keep his consecutive starts streak alive, then Sorgi takes over.

From what I’ve seen of him, Sorgi’s a pretty accurate dart thrower whose accuracy suffers a little when he throws long. He’s agile enough to evade rushers, but he has to be because his primary calling card is how long he holds onto the ball — sometimes it’s excruciating to watch him dancing around back there trying to make up his mind who to throw to. And while it’s been often repeated that he ran a 4.68 forty at the combine, he doesn’t play like it. Sorgi is virtually no threat to run.

How this affects the draft and free agency

Remember how the Colts signed Quinn Gray and Jared Lorenzen last summer and everyone thought they were there to take Sorgi’s job? They weren’t. They were there to back him up if Manning wasn’t ready to start the season. He was, and they were cut.

So the Colts re-signed Josh Betts (the guy they cut to sign them) to the practice squad. Betts is a big-armed bomber who isn’t very good at too many other things. He may be invited back to camp, but since they haven’t signed him yet it doesn’t look good for him.

The fact is, Manning is the starter and Sorgi is the backup for the time being. If they add a quarterback or quarterbacks, it’s likely that it will be a developmental guy who could be kept on as a No. 3 in 2009 and then compete for the No. 2 job in 2010. They are unlikely to spend a draft pick on one, but will no doubt be active in the search for undrafted free agents. They tend to like classic drop-back guys with big arms and strong characters and work ethics. A couple of guys I really like are Abilene Christian’s Billy Malone (if he clears his physical) and West Texas A&M’s Keith Null.

Quarterbacks drafted since Polian took over

2004 Sixth Jim Sorgi
1998 First Peyton Manning

No comments: