What happened: Foxsports reported the Broncos have signed Darrell Reid
What it means: Well, Reid offered little as a defensive lineman and the experiment with him as a blocking fullback wasn't a success. But Reid was a competent — if seriously over-hyped —
special-teams player. The Colts can replace his fullbacking duties in house with guys like Gijon Robinson or Tom Santi. They are likely to draft at least one defensive tackle who should be an upgrade over Reid, as well as a young linebacker prospect to take over his spot on specials.
Saturday, February 28, 2009
Friday, February 27, 2009
Free agency update
What happened: Jeff Saturday re-signed for three years
What it means: Peyton Manning breathes easier. Saturday may not be the biggest and strongest center in the league, but he is the smartest and may also be the toughest. Having him anchor the middle of their line allows the Colts to pick and choose between Ryan Lilja, Mike Pollak, Jamey Richard, Steve Justice and Charlie Johnson for the two starting guard spots. Lilja — who missed all of 2008 and is due $4.35 million in 2009 — could be a cap cut, while Johnson and perhaps Richard could move outside to tackle.
What happened: Colts decide against offering a tender to restricted free agent Freddie Keiaho
What it means: Look's like Keiaho is leaving a year before most of us expected. The most likely scenario has last year’s Sam Clint Session moving into Keiaho’s Will spot, with 2008 third-round pick Phillip Wheeler taking over on the strongside. But don’t count out 2008 undrafted rookie Jordan Senn taking over the weakside job, and Session staying put. Senn doesn’t have Wheeler’s physical gifts, but he clearly outplayed him as a rookie. The Colts will draft an outside linebacker prospect in the third, fourth or fifth round (like they always do). Keiaho could also be back at less than the tender if he doesn’t get a better offer elsewhere. And it’s not out of the realm of possibility that former Colts’ star Cato June — who was recently released by the Bucs — could be re-signed as a stopgap measure.
What happened: Colts offer tenders to exclusive-rights free agents Daniel Muir, Lance Ball, Dan Federkeil and Buster Davis.
What it means: These guys come back and compete for jobs. Muir has been injury-prone, but has some potential as a two-down defensive tackle. Ball was a pleasant surprise last season, showing he could carry the ball with authority and break tackles. He’s no threat to take over a starting position, but is a nice guy to have as part of the committee. Federkeil offers depth at right tackle and both guards spots, but has limited upside. I don't know why Davis is back. He was not very good when he played 2008, but I guess the Colts see something in him I don't.
Other free agents:
UFA S Matt Giordano: No news, unlikely to be back
UFA OLB Tyjuan Hagler: Indy Star says no contract offer from Colts.
UFA CB Keiwan Ratliff: No news, likely to be back after surprisingly effective 2008 season.
UFA DT Darrell Reid: No news, may be back because of his special-teams prowess.
UFA RB Dominic Rhodes: His agent says the Colts will not offer him a contract.
UFA P Hunter Smith: His agent says the Colts will not offer him a contract.
UFA DE Josh Thomas: His agent says he will test the market.
Depth chart
QB 18 Peyton Manning, 12 Jim Sorgi
RB 29 Joseph Addai, 32 Mike Hart, 35 Chad Simpson, 27 Lance Ball, 30 Clifton Dawson
FL 87 Reggie Wayne, 85 Pierre Garcon, 14 Samuel Giguere
SE 11 Anthony Gonzalez, 83 Roy Hall, 6 Taj Smith
TE 44 Dallas Clark, 84 Jacob Tamme, 80 Jamie Petrowski
H-B 47 Gijon Robinson, 86 Tom Santi
RT 71 Ryan Diem, 72 Corey Hilliard
RG Mike Pollak, 76 Dan Federkeil
C 61 Jamey Richard, 53 Steve Justice
LG 65 Ryan Lilja, 74 Charlie Johnson
LT 67 Tony Ugoh, 75 Michael Toudouze
RDE 93 Dwight Freeney, 92 Marcus Howard, 94 Curtis Johnson
RDT 99 Antonio Johnson, 90 Daniel Muir
LDT 96 Keyunta Dawson, 68 Eric Foster
LDE 79 Raheem Brock, 98 Robert Mathis
RLB 51 Jordan Senn, 59 Rufus Alexander
MLB 58 Gary Brackett, 52 Buster Davis, Mike Okwo
LLB 55 Clint Session, 50 Philip Wheeler
RCB 28 Marlin Jackson, 23 Tim Jennings, 25 Michael Coe, 34 TJ Rushing, 39 Brandon Foster
LCB 27 Kelvin Hayden, 20 Dante Hughes, 42 Nick Graham, 36 Brandon Sumrall
SS 21 Bob Sanders, 40 Jamie Silva, 37 Brannon Condren
FS 41 Antoine Bethea, 33 Melvin Bullitt, Travis Keys
K 4 Adam Vinatieri
P Mike Dragosavich
LS 48 Justin Snow
What it means: Peyton Manning breathes easier. Saturday may not be the biggest and strongest center in the league, but he is the smartest and may also be the toughest. Having him anchor the middle of their line allows the Colts to pick and choose between Ryan Lilja, Mike Pollak, Jamey Richard, Steve Justice and Charlie Johnson for the two starting guard spots. Lilja — who missed all of 2008 and is due $4.35 million in 2009 — could be a cap cut, while Johnson and perhaps Richard could move outside to tackle.
What happened: Colts decide against offering a tender to restricted free agent Freddie Keiaho
What it means: Look's like Keiaho is leaving a year before most of us expected. The most likely scenario has last year’s Sam Clint Session moving into Keiaho’s Will spot, with 2008 third-round pick Phillip Wheeler taking over on the strongside. But don’t count out 2008 undrafted rookie Jordan Senn taking over the weakside job, and Session staying put. Senn doesn’t have Wheeler’s physical gifts, but he clearly outplayed him as a rookie. The Colts will draft an outside linebacker prospect in the third, fourth or fifth round (like they always do). Keiaho could also be back at less than the tender if he doesn’t get a better offer elsewhere. And it’s not out of the realm of possibility that former Colts’ star Cato June — who was recently released by the Bucs — could be re-signed as a stopgap measure.
What happened: Colts offer tenders to exclusive-rights free agents Daniel Muir, Lance Ball, Dan Federkeil and Buster Davis.
What it means: These guys come back and compete for jobs. Muir has been injury-prone, but has some potential as a two-down defensive tackle. Ball was a pleasant surprise last season, showing he could carry the ball with authority and break tackles. He’s no threat to take over a starting position, but is a nice guy to have as part of the committee. Federkeil offers depth at right tackle and both guards spots, but has limited upside. I don't know why Davis is back. He was not very good when he played 2008, but I guess the Colts see something in him I don't.
Other free agents:
UFA S Matt Giordano: No news, unlikely to be back
UFA OLB Tyjuan Hagler: Indy Star says no contract offer from Colts.
UFA CB Keiwan Ratliff: No news, likely to be back after surprisingly effective 2008 season.
UFA DT Darrell Reid: No news, may be back because of his special-teams prowess.
UFA RB Dominic Rhodes: His agent says the Colts will not offer him a contract.
UFA P Hunter Smith: His agent says the Colts will not offer him a contract.
UFA DE Josh Thomas: His agent says he will test the market.
Depth chart
QB 18 Peyton Manning, 12 Jim Sorgi
RB 29 Joseph Addai, 32 Mike Hart, 35 Chad Simpson, 27 Lance Ball, 30 Clifton Dawson
FL 87 Reggie Wayne, 85 Pierre Garcon, 14 Samuel Giguere
SE 11 Anthony Gonzalez, 83 Roy Hall, 6 Taj Smith
TE 44 Dallas Clark, 84 Jacob Tamme, 80 Jamie Petrowski
H-B 47 Gijon Robinson, 86 Tom Santi
RT 71 Ryan Diem, 72 Corey Hilliard
RG Mike Pollak, 76 Dan Federkeil
C 61 Jamey Richard, 53 Steve Justice
LG 65 Ryan Lilja, 74 Charlie Johnson
LT 67 Tony Ugoh, 75 Michael Toudouze
RDE 93 Dwight Freeney, 92 Marcus Howard, 94 Curtis Johnson
RDT 99 Antonio Johnson, 90 Daniel Muir
LDT 96 Keyunta Dawson, 68 Eric Foster
LDE 79 Raheem Brock, 98 Robert Mathis
RLB 51 Jordan Senn, 59 Rufus Alexander
MLB 58 Gary Brackett, 52 Buster Davis, Mike Okwo
LLB 55 Clint Session, 50 Philip Wheeler
RCB 28 Marlin Jackson, 23 Tim Jennings, 25 Michael Coe, 34 TJ Rushing, 39 Brandon Foster
LCB 27 Kelvin Hayden, 20 Dante Hughes, 42 Nick Graham, 36 Brandon Sumrall
SS 21 Bob Sanders, 40 Jamie Silva, 37 Brannon Condren
FS 41 Antoine Bethea, 33 Melvin Bullitt, Travis Keys
K 4 Adam Vinatieri
P Mike Dragosavich
LS 48 Justin Snow
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Quick hits
• What luck, the Colts need wide receivers, defensive tackles and offensive tackles and those are the strongest sets of draftable players this year. They could also use another halfback, but all of them — except Boise State’s Ian Johnson — ran disappointing times at the Combine. Maybe that’ll shake someone down to a lower round.
• Even if he could bounce back, and even if he wasn’t going to be 37 before training camp, did anyone really think Marvin Harrison was worth $13.4 million a year? For comparison, Reggie Wayne is due $7.44 million.
• Halfbacks who try to come back to quickly after an ACL injury tend to be disappointing or prone to re-injury. The Colts really like what Mike Hart can do, so they are unlikely to rush him back. I wouldn’t expect to see him on the field before the second half of next season.
• Did you get a load of USC kicker David Buehler at the Combine? Kid ran a 4.56 and repped 25 times. The Colts do have a fondness for athletic kickers, and are in need of a kickoff specialist. Still, if they grab a strong-legged punter like SMU’s Thomas Morstead or Texas A&M’s Justin Brantly, that point could be moot. And I wouldn’t totally count out a return by Hunter Smith, either. I don’t know how many offers he’ll get from other teams, and he is a Hall of Fame-level holder (if that were a category). The only problem is that, as a 10-year veteran, he won’t be cheap.
• Don’t count out little-known receiving prospect Taj Smith who was signed from the practice squad. ColtPlay will have more on him later.
• If I make a mock please feel free to comment and criticize, but don’t tell me “he’ll be available in another round” — nobody knows that. Remember, just days before the 2005 draft Kelvin Hayden was projected as a seventh rounder but was picked in the second, while Brandon Browner was projected as a second rounder, but went undrafted.
• Speaking of the 2005 draft (and how little the media actually knows about players), I was reading one of my old draft guides and it labeled Marlin Jackson as a “major character risk,” while giving top behavior marks for Adam “Pacman” Jones.
You can’t just look at one incident (especially if it’s just alleged). Instead, do a little homework. Look to see if he’s getting his degree, check out his major, find out what he does off the field, look up what his coaches have to say about him and read or listen to his comments in interviews. Even then, it’s just a sketch.
• Don’t expect to see the Colts go after too many interior linemen in this draft. Even if Jeff Saturday departs, they have Ryan Lilja, Mike Pollak, Jamey Richard, Steve Justice and Charlie Johnson for three starting spots. And the arrow is definitely pointing up on all three second-year players. Of course Johnson could be needed at tackle, and I don’t see why Richard — who is built more like an NBA power forward than an NFL center — doesn’t get a few practice reps there either, although he hasn’t played outside since high school.
• Sure Hayden’s signed, but Jackson and Tim Jennings will be free agents after next season and Keiwan Ratliff is still without a contract. The other corners on the roster have been disappointing at best. Expect one or two picks at this position, but not necessarily a high one.
• Bill Polian said what I always believed about defensive tackles. He said that the prime beef is snapped up in the first 10-15 picks and that value doesn’t re-emerge until the later rounds. So now you have to wonder if he actually believes that (as his draft track record would indicate), or if he’s blowing smoke (as he has many times before). It’s really frustrating.
• With Gijon Robinson and Tom Santi on the roster, the Colts won’t be in the market for an actual fullback again this year. They’ll probably sign at least one as an UDFA, but his chances of making the roster will be slim.
• This year’s tender numbers for restricted free agents are:
$1.010 million/Right of first refusal, original draft round compensation
$1.545 million/Right of first refusal, 2nd round compensation
$2.198 million/Right of first refusal, 1st round compensation
$2.792 million/Right of first refusal, 1st and 3rd round compensation
The Colts’ only current restricted free agents are Dan Federkeil and Freddie Keiaho. The Colts have invested a lot of time in the former U of Calgary Dinosaur and the pride of Medicine Hat, but Federkeil hasn’t really paid them back with great play. He offers decent depth at right tackle and guard, but isn’t really a threat to take over anyone’s starting position. The Colts would probably like to keep him, but I think $1.01 mill might be a bit rich and quite a raise from the $445,000 he made last year. Besides, he was undrafted, so they’d be paying only for right of first refusal. More likely, they offer him no tender, which would allow him to become an unrestricted free agent. That way, they could negotiate a cheaper deal for him, as he’s unlikely to get too many offers elsewhere.
Keiaho is a slightly different story. A capable starter at Will who can play Sam or Mike in a pinch, the Colts will be more inclined to keep him. That is, unless they think that Phillip Wheeler, Jordan Senn or a draft pick is ready to start in his place. The $1.01 million tender would give the Colts a third-round pick as compensation while a second-rounder would cost them an extra $535,000 against the cap (and first rounder would be an extra $1.188 million), so they could well low-ball him. It’s a Colts tradition to keep their restricted free agents by signing them to one-year tenders and then letting them walk. That’s what I see them doing with Keiaho, so the size of the tender will depend on how much interest the Colts think he’ll get on the open market. Fans of other teams are already talking him up on their forums. He’s no star, and he doesn’t fit every defense, but Keiaho is probably worth the $1.545 million tender — at least for one year.
Note: I have since been informed that Federkeil doesn't have enough games uner his belt to be a restricted free agent and is instead an exclusive-rights free agent. So, logically he'll be invited back at the minimum salary.
• Even if he could bounce back, and even if he wasn’t going to be 37 before training camp, did anyone really think Marvin Harrison was worth $13.4 million a year? For comparison, Reggie Wayne is due $7.44 million.
• Halfbacks who try to come back to quickly after an ACL injury tend to be disappointing or prone to re-injury. The Colts really like what Mike Hart can do, so they are unlikely to rush him back. I wouldn’t expect to see him on the field before the second half of next season.
• Did you get a load of USC kicker David Buehler at the Combine? Kid ran a 4.56 and repped 25 times. The Colts do have a fondness for athletic kickers, and are in need of a kickoff specialist. Still, if they grab a strong-legged punter like SMU’s Thomas Morstead or Texas A&M’s Justin Brantly, that point could be moot. And I wouldn’t totally count out a return by Hunter Smith, either. I don’t know how many offers he’ll get from other teams, and he is a Hall of Fame-level holder (if that were a category). The only problem is that, as a 10-year veteran, he won’t be cheap.
• Don’t count out little-known receiving prospect Taj Smith who was signed from the practice squad. ColtPlay will have more on him later.
• If I make a mock please feel free to comment and criticize, but don’t tell me “he’ll be available in another round” — nobody knows that. Remember, just days before the 2005 draft Kelvin Hayden was projected as a seventh rounder but was picked in the second, while Brandon Browner was projected as a second rounder, but went undrafted.
• Speaking of the 2005 draft (and how little the media actually knows about players), I was reading one of my old draft guides and it labeled Marlin Jackson as a “major character risk,” while giving top behavior marks for Adam “Pacman” Jones.
You can’t just look at one incident (especially if it’s just alleged). Instead, do a little homework. Look to see if he’s getting his degree, check out his major, find out what he does off the field, look up what his coaches have to say about him and read or listen to his comments in interviews. Even then, it’s just a sketch.
• Don’t expect to see the Colts go after too many interior linemen in this draft. Even if Jeff Saturday departs, they have Ryan Lilja, Mike Pollak, Jamey Richard, Steve Justice and Charlie Johnson for three starting spots. And the arrow is definitely pointing up on all three second-year players. Of course Johnson could be needed at tackle, and I don’t see why Richard — who is built more like an NBA power forward than an NFL center — doesn’t get a few practice reps there either, although he hasn’t played outside since high school.
• Sure Hayden’s signed, but Jackson and Tim Jennings will be free agents after next season and Keiwan Ratliff is still without a contract. The other corners on the roster have been disappointing at best. Expect one or two picks at this position, but not necessarily a high one.
• Bill Polian said what I always believed about defensive tackles. He said that the prime beef is snapped up in the first 10-15 picks and that value doesn’t re-emerge until the later rounds. So now you have to wonder if he actually believes that (as his draft track record would indicate), or if he’s blowing smoke (as he has many times before). It’s really frustrating.
• With Gijon Robinson and Tom Santi on the roster, the Colts won’t be in the market for an actual fullback again this year. They’ll probably sign at least one as an UDFA, but his chances of making the roster will be slim.
• This year’s tender numbers for restricted free agents are:
$1.010 million/Right of first refusal, original draft round compensation
$1.545 million/Right of first refusal, 2nd round compensation
$2.198 million/Right of first refusal, 1st round compensation
$2.792 million/Right of first refusal, 1st and 3rd round compensation
The Colts’ only current restricted free agents are Dan Federkeil and Freddie Keiaho. The Colts have invested a lot of time in the former U of Calgary Dinosaur and the pride of Medicine Hat, but Federkeil hasn’t really paid them back with great play. He offers decent depth at right tackle and guard, but isn’t really a threat to take over anyone’s starting position. The Colts would probably like to keep him, but I think $1.01 mill might be a bit rich and quite a raise from the $445,000 he made last year. Besides, he was undrafted, so they’d be paying only for right of first refusal. More likely, they offer him no tender, which would allow him to become an unrestricted free agent. That way, they could negotiate a cheaper deal for him, as he’s unlikely to get too many offers elsewhere.
Keiaho is a slightly different story. A capable starter at Will who can play Sam or Mike in a pinch, the Colts will be more inclined to keep him. That is, unless they think that Phillip Wheeler, Jordan Senn or a draft pick is ready to start in his place. The $1.01 million tender would give the Colts a third-round pick as compensation while a second-rounder would cost them an extra $535,000 against the cap (and first rounder would be an extra $1.188 million), so they could well low-ball him. It’s a Colts tradition to keep their restricted free agents by signing them to one-year tenders and then letting them walk. That’s what I see them doing with Keiaho, so the size of the tender will depend on how much interest the Colts think he’ll get on the open market. Fans of other teams are already talking him up on their forums. He’s no star, and he doesn’t fit every defense, but Keiaho is probably worth the $1.545 million tender — at least for one year.
Note: I have since been informed that Federkeil doesn't have enough games uner his belt to be a restricted free agent and is instead an exclusive-rights free agent. So, logically he'll be invited back at the minimum salary.
Thursday, February 19, 2009
Updated depth chart
After three moves: 1) Dragosavich signed, 2) Smith's contract voided, and 3) Hayden re-signed
QB 18 Peyton Manning, 12 Jim Sorgi
RB 29 Joseph Addai, 32 Mike Hart, 35 Chad Simpson, 27 Lance Ball, 30 Clifton Dawson
FL 87 Reggie Wayne, 85 Pierre Garcon, 14 Samuel Giguere
SE 88 Marvin Harrison, 11 Anthony Gonzalez, 83 Roy Hall, 6 Taj Smith
TE 44 Dallas Clark, 84 Jacob Tamme, 80 Jamie Petrowski
H-B 47 Gijon Robinson, 86 Tom Santi
RT 71 Ryan Diem, 75 Michael Toudouze, 72 Corey Hilliard
RG Mike Pollak
C 61 Jamey Richard, 53 Steve Justice
LG 65 Ryan Lilja
LT 67 Tony Ugoh, 74 Charlie Johnson
RDE 93 Dwight Freeney, 92 Marcus Howard, 94 Curtis Johnson
RDT 99 Antonio Johnson, 90 Daniel Muir
LDT 96 Keyunta Dawson, 68 Eric Foster
LDE 79 Raheem Brock, 98 Robert Mathis
RLB 51 Jordan Senn, 59 Rufus Alexander
MLB 58 Gary Brackett, 52 Buster Davis, Mike Okwo
LLB 55 Clint Session, 50 Philip Wheeler
RCB 26 Kelvin Hayden, 23 Tim Jennings, 25 Michael Coe, 34 TJ Rushing, 39 Brandon Foster, Travis Keys
LCB 28 Marlin Jackson, 20 Dante Hughes, 42 Nick Graham, 36 Brandon Sumrall
SS 21 Bob Sanders, 40 Jamie Silva
FS 41 Antoine Bethea, 33 Melvin Bullitt, 37 Brannon Condren
K 4 Adam Vinatieri
P Mike Dragosavich
LS 48 Justin Snow
QB 18 Peyton Manning, 12 Jim Sorgi
RB 29 Joseph Addai, 32 Mike Hart, 35 Chad Simpson, 27 Lance Ball, 30 Clifton Dawson
FL 87 Reggie Wayne, 85 Pierre Garcon, 14 Samuel Giguere
SE 88 Marvin Harrison, 11 Anthony Gonzalez, 83 Roy Hall, 6 Taj Smith
TE 44 Dallas Clark, 84 Jacob Tamme, 80 Jamie Petrowski
H-B 47 Gijon Robinson, 86 Tom Santi
RT 71 Ryan Diem, 75 Michael Toudouze, 72 Corey Hilliard
RG Mike Pollak
C 61 Jamey Richard, 53 Steve Justice
LG 65 Ryan Lilja
LT 67 Tony Ugoh, 74 Charlie Johnson
RDE 93 Dwight Freeney, 92 Marcus Howard, 94 Curtis Johnson
RDT 99 Antonio Johnson, 90 Daniel Muir
LDT 96 Keyunta Dawson, 68 Eric Foster
LDE 79 Raheem Brock, 98 Robert Mathis
RLB 51 Jordan Senn, 59 Rufus Alexander
MLB 58 Gary Brackett, 52 Buster Davis, Mike Okwo
LLB 55 Clint Session, 50 Philip Wheeler
RCB 26 Kelvin Hayden, 23 Tim Jennings, 25 Michael Coe, 34 TJ Rushing, 39 Brandon Foster, Travis Keys
LCB 28 Marlin Jackson, 20 Dante Hughes, 42 Nick Graham, 36 Brandon Sumrall
SS 21 Bob Sanders, 40 Jamie Silva
FS 41 Antoine Bethea, 33 Melvin Bullitt, 37 Brannon Condren
K 4 Adam Vinatieri
P Mike Dragosavich
LS 48 Justin Snow
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Know Your Colts: Wide Receivers
This installment covers the Colts’ wide receivers. And to understand the wide receivers, it’s essential we look at the stats.
Percentage of passes caught
Garcon 100.00
Gonzalez 72.15
Wayne 63.08
Harrison 56.07
Hall 25.00
Yards per catch
Wayne 13.96
Gonzalez 11.65
Harrison 10.60
Hall 9.00
Garcon 5.75
Yards per target
Wayne 8.81
Gonzalez 8.41
Harrison 5.94
Garcon 5.75
Hall 2.25
Yards after the catch per catch:
Wayne 4.07
Gonzalez 3.25
Harrison 2.75
Hall 0.00
Garcon -0.25
Percentage of 1st downs and touchdowns per catch:
Hall 100.00
Wayne 84.15
Harrison 76.67
Gonzalez 70.18
Garcon 50.00
Drops per 100 catchable balls
Garcon 0.00
Hall 0.00
Harrison 1.64
Wayne 3.53
Gonzalez 11.11
Catches up the middle
Wayne 11-167-2
Gonzalez 8-72-0
Harrison 2-18-0
Garcon 0-0-0
Hall 0-0-0
87 Reggie Wayne
Numbers: 6002/198/4.43c in 01
2008 stats: 16 games played/16 games started (12-4), 82-1,145-6 receiving
2008 preseason stats: 4 games played/4 games started, 3-28-0 receiving
Status: Signed through 2011
I don’t have a lot to say about Wayne. He’s an all-time great at the top of his game. His numbers were down last season because of various problems that plagued the offense as a whole, but Wayne shouldn’t be blamed at all. In fact, he actually looked much better than he had in recent years — and made shocking play after shocking play.
88 Marvin Harrison
Numbers: 5116/187/4.37c in 96
2008 stats: 15 games played/15 games started (11-4), 60-636-5 receiving, 1-3-0 kick return, 1-2-0 punt return (0 fair catches), 1/1 fumbles/lost
2008 preseason stats: 3 games played/3 games started, 6-38-0 receiving
Status: Signed through 2011
Don’t tell me about history. I’ve been a Colts fan since the Bert Jones days, and I’ve seen pretty well every play Marvin Harrison has made. He’s going to Canton.
That said, if a lesser-known receiver turned in the season Harrison did in 2008, fans would be calling for his head. Look at the stats above. Despite being generally pretty healthy, Harrison’s 2008 was far below what he normally produces. And before you blame Manning’s injury or the impotent running game, look at the stats again — Harrison was clearly the Colts’ third-best wide receiver.
Maybe he bounces back now that he knows he’s not going to prison for the kerfuffle in Philadelphia. But I don’t think the Colts give him the chance. Polian is making noise about how he’d like to have him back, but I’m pretty sure that’s one of his many smokescreens. Harrison is scheduled to make $13.4 million next year. That’s a hell of a lot of money for a third wide receiver. And he’ll turn 37 before the season starts. He could retire, but more likely the Colts will cut him and we’ll sadly watch him play out the string with the Titans, Vikings, Bears or his hometown Eagles. Remember, even Jerry Rice played for five seasons (with three different teams) after the 49ers parted ways with him.
If Harrison somehow returns to the Colts, watch for him to be edged out of the No. 2 job by Gonzalez.
11 Anthony Gonzalez
Numbers: 6000/193/4.44c in 07
2008 stats: 16 games played/2 games started (2-0), 57-664-5 receiving
2008 preseason stats: 4 games played/1 game started, 7-78-0 receiving
Status: Signed through 2011
Even in the very unlikely scenario Harrison returns to the Colts, Gonzalez will probably supplant him as the No. 2 wideout. Gonzo actually reminds me a little of a young Harrison with his concentration and work ethic. But Gonzo has not been blessed with Harrison’s speed or overall athleticism. He have a harder time gaining separation than Harrison did in his prime, but he also does less when he has the ball in hands. But because he does the little things so perfectly well, Gonzalez can handily fulfill the role of No. 2 receiver behind Reggie Wayne, just as Wayne did behind Harrison. But I’m not entirely sold on the idea that Gonzalez can supplant Wayne as No. 1 when the time comes.
85 Pierre Garcon
Numbers: 5117/210/4.42c in 08
2008 stats: 14 games played/0 games started, 4-23-0 receiving, 22-475-0 kick returns, 1-5-0 punt return (0 fair catches), 12 special-teams tackles, 3 special-teams assists
2008 preseason stats: 4 games played/0 games started, 7-74-0 receiving, 5-143-0 kick returns, 9-45-0 punt returns (0 fair catches), 1/0 fumbles/lost, 1 fumble recovery
Status: Signed through 2011
Hugely productive at DIII powerhouse Mount Union, Garcon’s rookie season went fairly predictably. He was a sloppy route runner, wasn’t creative on them and did little to help out his quarterback when he was in trouble. Garcon didn’t play anywhere near his timed speed, and showed little understanding of pro defenses. On the plus side, he displayed natural hands, great athleticism and a surprising ability to block for the run.
Many of Garcon’s shortcomings should be mitigated with experience, and he looks like he belongs in the NFL. Still, at best, his future is as a possession receiver because I don’t see him playing any faster. He’ll break a few long gains when he’s got an advantageous match up, but he has little deep speed or short-area explosiveness and will mostly be depended on to move the chains in the pros.
Does that make him the slot man should Harrison get cut and Gonzalez grab the No. 2 role? I’m not sure. He looks more like an outside receiver to me, but is an intelligent runner who could succeed inside if he has the toughness. Besides, his blocking would be a boon inside. He’s certainly better than Devin Aromashodu — the guy everybody was talking up at this time last year — but he’ll have to show me something more than 4-23-0 in 14 games before I think he’ll ever be more a No. 4 wideout.
Since Garcon offers great value as a special teamer — both as a returner and coverage guy, I also don’t see him being cut anytime soon.
83 Roy Hall
Numbers: 6020/229/4.41pd in 07
2008 stats: 4 game played/0 game started, 1-9-0 receiving, 3 special-teams tackles
2008 preseason stats: 2 games played/0 games started, 6-51-0 receiving
Status: Signed through 2010
When Hall was drafted, the Colts’ faithful hailed him as nine feet tall, 500 pounds and able to cover forty yards in a single step. I wondered where I remembered his name from — was it the same Roy Hall who was Ohio State’s fifth-best wide receiver? Was he that guy whose college career highlight was injuring teammate Ted Ginn Jr. while celebrating a Ginn touchdown? Yes it was.
In two injury-plagued years as a Colt, Hall has played in seven games and caught one pass for nine yards. And that was in one of those meaningless Games 16s against the Titans that pitted scrub against scrub. When he did play (both in preseason and the regular season), Hall didn’t exactly impress. He inexpertly ran short routes and did not seem like a natural pass-catcher or runner with the ball.
That said, he did look very good on kick coverage teams when he played on them. But if he can’t play wide receiver without getting injured, how will he survive the terror that is NFL special teams?
14 Sam Giguere
Numbers: 5110/220/4.41pd in 08
2008 stats: None
2008 preseason stats: 4 games played/0 games started, 2-22-0 receiving
Status: Signed through 2011
Unlike many Colts observers, I was lucky enough to see Giguere play in college. And he was something special. But if Garcon came from DIII, Giguere came from DIV or even DV. Not only is the level of competition a lot lower, even the rules are different. But Giguere is a superior athlete, as evidenced by his ridiculous workout numbers — 4.41 forty, 40-inch vertical, 4.14 short shuttle and 10’1 long jump.
Giguere didn’t play in the regular season and did little impressive in the preseason, but hardly a day went by in camp when someone didn’t rave about some incredible thing Giguere did.
It’s probably too early to think Giguere will do anything significant with the Colts this year, but since he cost virtually nothing and could be something special down the road, it’ll be interesting to see what he does this summer.
6 Taj Smith
Numbers: 6003/188/4.48pd in 08
2008 stats: None
2008 preseason stats: 4 games played/0 games started, 2-13-0 receiving with Green Bay
Status: Signed through 2010
Smith isn’t very fast and his hands are only acceptable by NFL standards. So why is he in camp? Well, he does everything else right. Despite his skinny frame, Smith is very strong. He easily beats jams and can’t be knocked off his routes by most defensive backs. Smith is a far better route-runner than he gets credit for, and has improved in this area throughout his career. His agility, athleticism and body control are unworldly. He gets a lot of criticism because of drops, but if you look at the video, most of them are the result of him making an extra effort to catch a ball that he had no chance of catching. Smith is absolutely unafraid of going over the middle. He’s an elusive runner who makes tough yards after the catch and can even make an unwary safety pay for his tackle attempt. This guy even blocks well.
Smith had 44 catches for an excellent 822 yards and five scores on a tragic Syracuse team in 2007. He left Syracuse as a 24-year-old junior and declared for the draft. He wasn’t chosen, but signed with the Packers. An observer I know there — who watched their camp and preseason closely — was surprised he was cut.
Many people consider Smith something of a character risk because of allegations he was kicked off both his high school and JuCo teams, but I’m not so sure. Smith not only earned his degree at Syracuse, but also has a job waiting for him as a child counselor at Beth Israel Medical Center in his hometown of Newark, N.J. He scored very well in his Wonderlic and other tests, and comes across as mature and intelligent in interviews.
I’m not saying Smith is the second coming of Anquan Boldin, but — like many undrafted free agents signed by the Colts — he’s a lot more interesting than you’d think just by looking at his stat line.
What this means for the draft and free agency
If we assume the Coits will let Harrison go, then he will need to be replaced. Of course, Gonzalez is the heir apparent. Okay, so who replaces Gonzalez? Some observers may think replacing a third receiver is not that big a deal; but if they do, they’re not paying attention.
Every since Tom Moore took over as offensive coordinator in 1998, the Colts have led the league in the use of three wideouts every single season. In fact, the Colts generally play three wide more than 70 percent of the time on offense. To put that in perspective, Pro Bowl defensive end Robert Mathis plays about 50 percent of defensive snaps. In essence, when you’re talking about the Colts third wide receiver, you’re talking about a starter.
So, is there a starter among Garcon, Hall, Giguere and Smith? Maybe, but I wouldn’t bet on it. I like all of them (in varying degrees), but none is the explosive, score-from-anywhere threat the Colts need in the slot. Remember those brief moments when Brandon Stokley was both healthy and under contract? Man, that was great; the Colts’ offense was simply unstoppable. And it could happen again.
Or maybe it’s just me. Last season — when Harrison’s contribution was more of a given — I wanted the Colts to draft Houston’s Donnie Avery. It would have worked out okay. Despite starting just 12 games in the Rams’ pathetic popgun offense, Avery caught 53-674-3 (and ran for 10-69-1), which compares pretty favorably with Harrison’s 60-636-5 in the 15 starts in the Colts’ rather plush attack. But then, Avery was gone by the time the Colts picked, and — if he wasn’t and they took him — the Colts wouldn’t have Mike Pollak.
If the Colts do go with an explosive slot guy/return man (as I would recommend), they have two great prospects at the top of the draft Miami’s Percy Harvin and Penn State’s Derrick Williams. Both are the kind of electric weapon that would cause headaches for defensive coordinators, especially if they wound up in an offense like Indy’s. Just as likely, though, is that the Colts give the role to Garcon. And, if he falters, you could see Dallas Clark or even Jacob Tamme take over in the slot.
Wide receivers drafted by the Colts since Polian took over
2008 Sixth Pierre Garcon
2007 First Anthony Gonzalez
2007 Fifth Roy Hall
2001 First Reggie Wayne
1998 Second Jerome Pathon
1998 Third E.G. Green
Percentage of passes caught
Garcon 100.00
Gonzalez 72.15
Wayne 63.08
Harrison 56.07
Hall 25.00
Yards per catch
Wayne 13.96
Gonzalez 11.65
Harrison 10.60
Hall 9.00
Garcon 5.75
Yards per target
Wayne 8.81
Gonzalez 8.41
Harrison 5.94
Garcon 5.75
Hall 2.25
Yards after the catch per catch:
Wayne 4.07
Gonzalez 3.25
Harrison 2.75
Hall 0.00
Garcon -0.25
Percentage of 1st downs and touchdowns per catch:
Hall 100.00
Wayne 84.15
Harrison 76.67
Gonzalez 70.18
Garcon 50.00
Drops per 100 catchable balls
Garcon 0.00
Hall 0.00
Harrison 1.64
Wayne 3.53
Gonzalez 11.11
Catches up the middle
Wayne 11-167-2
Gonzalez 8-72-0
Harrison 2-18-0
Garcon 0-0-0
Hall 0-0-0
87 Reggie Wayne
Numbers: 6002/198/4.43c in 01
2008 stats: 16 games played/16 games started (12-4), 82-1,145-6 receiving
2008 preseason stats: 4 games played/4 games started, 3-28-0 receiving
Status: Signed through 2011
I don’t have a lot to say about Wayne. He’s an all-time great at the top of his game. His numbers were down last season because of various problems that plagued the offense as a whole, but Wayne shouldn’t be blamed at all. In fact, he actually looked much better than he had in recent years — and made shocking play after shocking play.
88 Marvin Harrison
Numbers: 5116/187/4.37c in 96
2008 stats: 15 games played/15 games started (11-4), 60-636-5 receiving, 1-3-0 kick return, 1-2-0 punt return (0 fair catches), 1/1 fumbles/lost
2008 preseason stats: 3 games played/3 games started, 6-38-0 receiving
Status: Signed through 2011
Don’t tell me about history. I’ve been a Colts fan since the Bert Jones days, and I’ve seen pretty well every play Marvin Harrison has made. He’s going to Canton.
That said, if a lesser-known receiver turned in the season Harrison did in 2008, fans would be calling for his head. Look at the stats above. Despite being generally pretty healthy, Harrison’s 2008 was far below what he normally produces. And before you blame Manning’s injury or the impotent running game, look at the stats again — Harrison was clearly the Colts’ third-best wide receiver.
Maybe he bounces back now that he knows he’s not going to prison for the kerfuffle in Philadelphia. But I don’t think the Colts give him the chance. Polian is making noise about how he’d like to have him back, but I’m pretty sure that’s one of his many smokescreens. Harrison is scheduled to make $13.4 million next year. That’s a hell of a lot of money for a third wide receiver. And he’ll turn 37 before the season starts. He could retire, but more likely the Colts will cut him and we’ll sadly watch him play out the string with the Titans, Vikings, Bears or his hometown Eagles. Remember, even Jerry Rice played for five seasons (with three different teams) after the 49ers parted ways with him.
If Harrison somehow returns to the Colts, watch for him to be edged out of the No. 2 job by Gonzalez.
11 Anthony Gonzalez
Numbers: 6000/193/4.44c in 07
2008 stats: 16 games played/2 games started (2-0), 57-664-5 receiving
2008 preseason stats: 4 games played/1 game started, 7-78-0 receiving
Status: Signed through 2011
Even in the very unlikely scenario Harrison returns to the Colts, Gonzalez will probably supplant him as the No. 2 wideout. Gonzo actually reminds me a little of a young Harrison with his concentration and work ethic. But Gonzo has not been blessed with Harrison’s speed or overall athleticism. He have a harder time gaining separation than Harrison did in his prime, but he also does less when he has the ball in hands. But because he does the little things so perfectly well, Gonzalez can handily fulfill the role of No. 2 receiver behind Reggie Wayne, just as Wayne did behind Harrison. But I’m not entirely sold on the idea that Gonzalez can supplant Wayne as No. 1 when the time comes.
85 Pierre Garcon
Numbers: 5117/210/4.42c in 08
2008 stats: 14 games played/0 games started, 4-23-0 receiving, 22-475-0 kick returns, 1-5-0 punt return (0 fair catches), 12 special-teams tackles, 3 special-teams assists
2008 preseason stats: 4 games played/0 games started, 7-74-0 receiving, 5-143-0 kick returns, 9-45-0 punt returns (0 fair catches), 1/0 fumbles/lost, 1 fumble recovery
Status: Signed through 2011
Hugely productive at DIII powerhouse Mount Union, Garcon’s rookie season went fairly predictably. He was a sloppy route runner, wasn’t creative on them and did little to help out his quarterback when he was in trouble. Garcon didn’t play anywhere near his timed speed, and showed little understanding of pro defenses. On the plus side, he displayed natural hands, great athleticism and a surprising ability to block for the run.
Many of Garcon’s shortcomings should be mitigated with experience, and he looks like he belongs in the NFL. Still, at best, his future is as a possession receiver because I don’t see him playing any faster. He’ll break a few long gains when he’s got an advantageous match up, but he has little deep speed or short-area explosiveness and will mostly be depended on to move the chains in the pros.
Does that make him the slot man should Harrison get cut and Gonzalez grab the No. 2 role? I’m not sure. He looks more like an outside receiver to me, but is an intelligent runner who could succeed inside if he has the toughness. Besides, his blocking would be a boon inside. He’s certainly better than Devin Aromashodu — the guy everybody was talking up at this time last year — but he’ll have to show me something more than 4-23-0 in 14 games before I think he’ll ever be more a No. 4 wideout.
Since Garcon offers great value as a special teamer — both as a returner and coverage guy, I also don’t see him being cut anytime soon.
83 Roy Hall
Numbers: 6020/229/4.41pd in 07
2008 stats: 4 game played/0 game started, 1-9-0 receiving, 3 special-teams tackles
2008 preseason stats: 2 games played/0 games started, 6-51-0 receiving
Status: Signed through 2010
When Hall was drafted, the Colts’ faithful hailed him as nine feet tall, 500 pounds and able to cover forty yards in a single step. I wondered where I remembered his name from — was it the same Roy Hall who was Ohio State’s fifth-best wide receiver? Was he that guy whose college career highlight was injuring teammate Ted Ginn Jr. while celebrating a Ginn touchdown? Yes it was.
In two injury-plagued years as a Colt, Hall has played in seven games and caught one pass for nine yards. And that was in one of those meaningless Games 16s against the Titans that pitted scrub against scrub. When he did play (both in preseason and the regular season), Hall didn’t exactly impress. He inexpertly ran short routes and did not seem like a natural pass-catcher or runner with the ball.
That said, he did look very good on kick coverage teams when he played on them. But if he can’t play wide receiver without getting injured, how will he survive the terror that is NFL special teams?
14 Sam Giguere
Numbers: 5110/220/4.41pd in 08
2008 stats: None
2008 preseason stats: 4 games played/0 games started, 2-22-0 receiving
Status: Signed through 2011
Unlike many Colts observers, I was lucky enough to see Giguere play in college. And he was something special. But if Garcon came from DIII, Giguere came from DIV or even DV. Not only is the level of competition a lot lower, even the rules are different. But Giguere is a superior athlete, as evidenced by his ridiculous workout numbers — 4.41 forty, 40-inch vertical, 4.14 short shuttle and 10’1 long jump.
Giguere didn’t play in the regular season and did little impressive in the preseason, but hardly a day went by in camp when someone didn’t rave about some incredible thing Giguere did.
It’s probably too early to think Giguere will do anything significant with the Colts this year, but since he cost virtually nothing and could be something special down the road, it’ll be interesting to see what he does this summer.
6 Taj Smith
Numbers: 6003/188/4.48pd in 08
2008 stats: None
2008 preseason stats: 4 games played/0 games started, 2-13-0 receiving with Green Bay
Status: Signed through 2010
Smith isn’t very fast and his hands are only acceptable by NFL standards. So why is he in camp? Well, he does everything else right. Despite his skinny frame, Smith is very strong. He easily beats jams and can’t be knocked off his routes by most defensive backs. Smith is a far better route-runner than he gets credit for, and has improved in this area throughout his career. His agility, athleticism and body control are unworldly. He gets a lot of criticism because of drops, but if you look at the video, most of them are the result of him making an extra effort to catch a ball that he had no chance of catching. Smith is absolutely unafraid of going over the middle. He’s an elusive runner who makes tough yards after the catch and can even make an unwary safety pay for his tackle attempt. This guy even blocks well.
Smith had 44 catches for an excellent 822 yards and five scores on a tragic Syracuse team in 2007. He left Syracuse as a 24-year-old junior and declared for the draft. He wasn’t chosen, but signed with the Packers. An observer I know there — who watched their camp and preseason closely — was surprised he was cut.
Many people consider Smith something of a character risk because of allegations he was kicked off both his high school and JuCo teams, but I’m not so sure. Smith not only earned his degree at Syracuse, but also has a job waiting for him as a child counselor at Beth Israel Medical Center in his hometown of Newark, N.J. He scored very well in his Wonderlic and other tests, and comes across as mature and intelligent in interviews.
I’m not saying Smith is the second coming of Anquan Boldin, but — like many undrafted free agents signed by the Colts — he’s a lot more interesting than you’d think just by looking at his stat line.
What this means for the draft and free agency
If we assume the Coits will let Harrison go, then he will need to be replaced. Of course, Gonzalez is the heir apparent. Okay, so who replaces Gonzalez? Some observers may think replacing a third receiver is not that big a deal; but if they do, they’re not paying attention.
Every since Tom Moore took over as offensive coordinator in 1998, the Colts have led the league in the use of three wideouts every single season. In fact, the Colts generally play three wide more than 70 percent of the time on offense. To put that in perspective, Pro Bowl defensive end Robert Mathis plays about 50 percent of defensive snaps. In essence, when you’re talking about the Colts third wide receiver, you’re talking about a starter.
So, is there a starter among Garcon, Hall, Giguere and Smith? Maybe, but I wouldn’t bet on it. I like all of them (in varying degrees), but none is the explosive, score-from-anywhere threat the Colts need in the slot. Remember those brief moments when Brandon Stokley was both healthy and under contract? Man, that was great; the Colts’ offense was simply unstoppable. And it could happen again.
Or maybe it’s just me. Last season — when Harrison’s contribution was more of a given — I wanted the Colts to draft Houston’s Donnie Avery. It would have worked out okay. Despite starting just 12 games in the Rams’ pathetic popgun offense, Avery caught 53-674-3 (and ran for 10-69-1), which compares pretty favorably with Harrison’s 60-636-5 in the 15 starts in the Colts’ rather plush attack. But then, Avery was gone by the time the Colts picked, and — if he wasn’t and they took him — the Colts wouldn’t have Mike Pollak.
If the Colts do go with an explosive slot guy/return man (as I would recommend), they have two great prospects at the top of the draft Miami’s Percy Harvin and Penn State’s Derrick Williams. Both are the kind of electric weapon that would cause headaches for defensive coordinators, especially if they wound up in an offense like Indy’s. Just as likely, though, is that the Colts give the role to Garcon. And, if he falters, you could see Dallas Clark or even Jacob Tamme take over in the slot.
Wide receivers drafted by the Colts since Polian took over
2008 Sixth Pierre Garcon
2007 First Anthony Gonzalez
2007 Fifth Roy Hall
2001 First Reggie Wayne
1998 Second Jerome Pathon
1998 Third E.G. Green
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
ColtPlay interview: Jordan Senn
How do you not like a guy like Jordan Senn? Coming into the 2008 draft, those national media types who had wrote of him projected him as a strong safety who had little chance of making an NFL roster. Not only did he make one of the NFL's best teams, but he did it at outside linebacker (his more natural position), beating out better known prospects like Ramon Guzman, Terna Nande, Kyle Shotwell, Victor Worsley and Brandon Archer.
Once he made the team, he became a reliable and sometimes spectacular performer on special teams. On defense, his rookie season was promising, and he played better and more often than the Colts' vaunted third-round pick Philip Wheeler.
If that's not enough, keep in mind that this guy graduated with a 3.86 grade point average and two Academic All-American awards. And, after his football career is over, Senn hopes to save lives as a firefighter or EMT.
ColtPlay caught up with Senn, and asked him a few questions.
CP: You put up some big numbers at PSU, and had some nice workouts; what other NFL teams were interested in you? I read somewhere that the Colts were your first choice, why?
Senn: A few other teams showed some interest prior to the draft last year. The teams my agent and/or I spoke with were the Seahawks (where I took a visit), the Chiefs and the Bills. The Colts were my first choice for a number of reasons. One of the big reasons for my choosing to go to take the invite to Indianapolis was because of the amazing things I had heard about Coach Dungy, both on and off the field. Obviously he has been a very successful coach, but I think how he did it is what really interested me. All I heard about him was that he was an amazing man, who wanted not just good football player on his team, but good men. That was something that really stuck out in my mind. I wanted to go somewhere where I felt that I would be around a lot of good role models that could mentor me and help me develop into the player that I want to be. Another reason for The Colts being my choice was because I felt I fit in well to the defensive scheme and that they had a track record of free agent guys coming in, earning respect and eventually becoming big contributors on the team. Which was and is a major goal of mine.
CP: Did you find the Colts’ defense difficult to pick up? Did you work out at any defensive positions other than OLB (I know lots of draft “experts” thought you’d wind up at SS)?
Senn: The defense wasn't too difficult to pick up, but I'm definitely still learning the small details that it takes to be a starter. With anything new, I think it takes repetition to become efficient and productive. Coming out of college last year I wasn't sure what position teams were going to see as a good fit for me. I had played safety basically all my life until my junior season of college where I moved to SS/WLB, so I didn't really know where I'd fit in. And of course with me being undersized I didn't really know what to expect.
CP: You’re best known to Colts fans for your work on special teams; how is it different from defense?
Senn: In terms of mindset I would say that special teams doesn't differ from defense all that much. Anytime I'm on the field it's all about getting my job done and having what a lot of people call "want to." Just the desire to be the one making the play and/or doing what is needed to make it possible for someone else to make the play. Physically special teams can bring about some serious collisions, but that's what the games all about in my eyes.
CP: Have the coaches talked to you about possibly competing for a starting spot this year or next?
Senn: We have yet to meet with the coaching staff since the day after the San Diego game, so I have yet to speak with them about next year. I feel like we're all competing for a starting spot. If you don't approach the offseason like you're going to be starting then you're just selling yourself short. I think about it everyday as I train. Thats what I'm training for and thats my goal. If I don't earn the starting spot, it won't be because I didn't work like I was the starter. It will be because I'm not better than the guy ahead of me.
CP: Do you think the new coaching staff will bring many changes to the defense or your position?
Senn: As for the new staff I can't comment on if there will be many changes or not, since we have yet to meet as a team.
CP: The Colts have a reputation for letting OLBs leave in free agency, is that a concern for you?
Senn: I try not to focus on the things I can't control. As long as I stay focused on my own performance, things will work out the way they are meant to.
CP: As a former running back, do you miss playing offense? Any talk of you playing fullback?
Senn: Honestly it's been such a long time since I played offense, that I can't say I really miss it. There's never been any talk of me playing any fullback, if that was something I was asked to do I would love the challenge.
CP: What was the most memorable experience in your rookie season?
Senn: That's a hard question to answer. There were a lot of memorable experiences, one that stands out is the pregame national anthem in San Diego for the playoff game. I could feel the energy from the crowd rushing through my body. When the national anthem finished there was a fly by and that rush was pretty amazing. The other that stands out is the preseason game at home where I started on defense and was announced as we ran out onto the field. It was a special moment for me and something that I still drives me during the offseason.
Once he made the team, he became a reliable and sometimes spectacular performer on special teams. On defense, his rookie season was promising, and he played better and more often than the Colts' vaunted third-round pick Philip Wheeler.
If that's not enough, keep in mind that this guy graduated with a 3.86 grade point average and two Academic All-American awards. And, after his football career is over, Senn hopes to save lives as a firefighter or EMT.
ColtPlay caught up with Senn, and asked him a few questions.
CP: You put up some big numbers at PSU, and had some nice workouts; what other NFL teams were interested in you? I read somewhere that the Colts were your first choice, why?
Senn: A few other teams showed some interest prior to the draft last year. The teams my agent and/or I spoke with were the Seahawks (where I took a visit), the Chiefs and the Bills. The Colts were my first choice for a number of reasons. One of the big reasons for my choosing to go to take the invite to Indianapolis was because of the amazing things I had heard about Coach Dungy, both on and off the field. Obviously he has been a very successful coach, but I think how he did it is what really interested me. All I heard about him was that he was an amazing man, who wanted not just good football player on his team, but good men. That was something that really stuck out in my mind. I wanted to go somewhere where I felt that I would be around a lot of good role models that could mentor me and help me develop into the player that I want to be. Another reason for The Colts being my choice was because I felt I fit in well to the defensive scheme and that they had a track record of free agent guys coming in, earning respect and eventually becoming big contributors on the team. Which was and is a major goal of mine.
CP: Did you find the Colts’ defense difficult to pick up? Did you work out at any defensive positions other than OLB (I know lots of draft “experts” thought you’d wind up at SS)?
Senn: The defense wasn't too difficult to pick up, but I'm definitely still learning the small details that it takes to be a starter. With anything new, I think it takes repetition to become efficient and productive. Coming out of college last year I wasn't sure what position teams were going to see as a good fit for me. I had played safety basically all my life until my junior season of college where I moved to SS/WLB, so I didn't really know where I'd fit in. And of course with me being undersized I didn't really know what to expect.
CP: You’re best known to Colts fans for your work on special teams; how is it different from defense?
Senn: In terms of mindset I would say that special teams doesn't differ from defense all that much. Anytime I'm on the field it's all about getting my job done and having what a lot of people call "want to." Just the desire to be the one making the play and/or doing what is needed to make it possible for someone else to make the play. Physically special teams can bring about some serious collisions, but that's what the games all about in my eyes.
CP: Have the coaches talked to you about possibly competing for a starting spot this year or next?
Senn: We have yet to meet with the coaching staff since the day after the San Diego game, so I have yet to speak with them about next year. I feel like we're all competing for a starting spot. If you don't approach the offseason like you're going to be starting then you're just selling yourself short. I think about it everyday as I train. Thats what I'm training for and thats my goal. If I don't earn the starting spot, it won't be because I didn't work like I was the starter. It will be because I'm not better than the guy ahead of me.
CP: Do you think the new coaching staff will bring many changes to the defense or your position?
Senn: As for the new staff I can't comment on if there will be many changes or not, since we have yet to meet as a team.
CP: The Colts have a reputation for letting OLBs leave in free agency, is that a concern for you?
Senn: I try not to focus on the things I can't control. As long as I stay focused on my own performance, things will work out the way they are meant to.
CP: As a former running back, do you miss playing offense? Any talk of you playing fullback?
Senn: Honestly it's been such a long time since I played offense, that I can't say I really miss it. There's never been any talk of me playing any fullback, if that was something I was asked to do I would love the challenge.
CP: What was the most memorable experience in your rookie season?
Senn: That's a hard question to answer. There were a lot of memorable experiences, one that stands out is the pregame national anthem in San Diego for the playoff game. I could feel the energy from the crowd rushing through my body. When the national anthem finished there was a fly by and that rush was pretty amazing. The other that stands out is the preseason game at home where I started on defense and was announced as we ran out onto the field. It was a special moment for me and something that I still drives me during the offseason.
Friday, February 13, 2009
Colts sign a punter
Mike Dragosavich
Numbers: 6054/212/4.94pd
2008 stats: None
2008 preseason stats: None
Although Hunter Smith is still an effective punter (critics be damned!), and the best holder in the league, I like this signing. Dragosavich may have the strongest kicking leg I have ever seen. He makes Sebastian Janikowski look like a toddler. So why is he available, and why is he on his third NFL team in less than a year? Well, he has the subtlety and nuance of Janikowski after a few highballs. He really needs to learn how to kick like a big boy. Although he is unlikely to usurp the ever-savvy Smith from his punting duties, Dragosavich has a chance to stick as a kickoff specialist. Should he learn how to do it properly, he could be a real weapon.
Note: StampedeBlue reports that Smith has voided the final year of his contract (making him a free agent) and that his agent says the Colts are not offering him a contract. While that would mean the Colts will need a punter, it doesn't make me think Dragosavich is the guy.
Numbers: 6054/212/4.94pd
2008 stats: None
2008 preseason stats: None
Although Hunter Smith is still an effective punter (critics be damned!), and the best holder in the league, I like this signing. Dragosavich may have the strongest kicking leg I have ever seen. He makes Sebastian Janikowski look like a toddler. So why is he available, and why is he on his third NFL team in less than a year? Well, he has the subtlety and nuance of Janikowski after a few highballs. He really needs to learn how to kick like a big boy. Although he is unlikely to usurp the ever-savvy Smith from his punting duties, Dragosavich has a chance to stick as a kickoff specialist. Should he learn how to do it properly, he could be a real weapon.
Note: StampedeBlue reports that Smith has voided the final year of his contract (making him a free agent) and that his agent says the Colts are not offering him a contract. While that would mean the Colts will need a punter, it doesn't make me think Dragosavich is the guy.
Thursday, February 12, 2009
How the Colts ranked
When thinking about adding players through the draft or free agency, you kind of want to look at what the team needs. So here's a handy guide to how the Colts performed last year by their ranking in the NFL last season. To make it clearer, defensive stats get a bullet (•) and special teams are in italics.
Bottom half of the league
32nd Offensive rushing yards per carry
32nd Offensive punt-return average
31st Offensive rushing yards per game
• 31st Defensive third-down efficiency
28th Offensive kick-return average
• 28th Defensive gross punting average
• 25th Defensive kick-return average
• 24th Defensive rushing yards per game
• 20th Defensive first downs per game
• 17th Defensive rushing yards per carry
Top half of the league
15th Offensive total yards per game
• 15th Defensive sacks recorded
• 15th Defensive punt-return average
13th Offensive points per game
12th Offensive gross punting average
12th Offensive average gain per play
• 11th Defensive total yards per game
• 11th Defensive interception rate
• 10th Defensive average gain per play
9th Offensive passing yards per attempt
• 9th Defensive passing yards per attempt
8th Offensive net punting average
7th Offensive first downs per game
• 7th Defensive points per game
• 7th Defensive net punting average
• 7th Defensive fourth-down efficiency
• 6th Defensive passing yards per game
5th Offensive passing yards per game
5th Offensive interception rate
4th Offensive fourth-down efficiency
3rd Offensive sacks allowed
1st Offensive third-down efficiency
Bottom half of the league
32nd Offensive rushing yards per carry
32nd Offensive punt-return average
31st Offensive rushing yards per game
• 31st Defensive third-down efficiency
28th Offensive kick-return average
• 28th Defensive gross punting average
• 25th Defensive kick-return average
• 24th Defensive rushing yards per game
• 20th Defensive first downs per game
• 17th Defensive rushing yards per carry
Top half of the league
15th Offensive total yards per game
• 15th Defensive sacks recorded
• 15th Defensive punt-return average
13th Offensive points per game
12th Offensive gross punting average
12th Offensive average gain per play
• 11th Defensive total yards per game
• 11th Defensive interception rate
• 10th Defensive average gain per play
9th Offensive passing yards per attempt
• 9th Defensive passing yards per attempt
8th Offensive net punting average
7th Offensive first downs per game
• 7th Defensive points per game
• 7th Defensive net punting average
• 7th Defensive fourth-down efficiency
• 6th Defensive passing yards per game
5th Offensive passing yards per game
5th Offensive interception rate
4th Offensive fourth-down efficiency
3rd Offensive sacks allowed
1st Offensive third-down efficiency
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Quick post
• I don’t think Darrell Reid’s recent kerfuffle with the cops will hurt his status. Ed Johnson and Kenton Keith both came to the Colts with rap sheets as long as your arm, so when they screwed up, they were shown the door. But Reid’s not considered a bad dude, so it’ll probably be chalked up to youthful hi-jinks. Reid’s an unrestricted free agent, so his timing sucks for him, but I think he’ll be invited back to Indy should he not get any big bids.
• I normally hate this kind of speculation, but how about signing Mike Furrey? He was just inexplicably released by the Lions. The Colts need a reliable slot receiver and Furrey is quick and sure handed. Y’know, he started his pro career with the Colts and he nearly made the roster, but that was when he was a safety. He’d be a stop-gap solution at best, but I bet he’d come cheap.
• The Titans signed former Colt LaJuan Ramsey. I bet they wished they kept Antonio Johnson instead.
• So Freddy Keiaho’s a restricted free agent, eh? That means he’s probably a Colt for one more year. Should he leave early, look for Clint Session to slide into his Will spot and Philip Wheeler to take over Sessions' Sam spot. Should that not work out, you could see Jordan Senn take Keiaho's spot and Session stay put.
• If Percy Harvin’s there at 27, I think you have to grab him.
• Depth chart of signed players
QB 18 Peyton Manning, 12 Jim Sorgi
RB 29 Joseph Addai, 32 Mike Hart, 35 Chad Simpson, 27 Lance Ball, 30 Clifton Dawson
FL 87 Reggie Wayne, 85 Pierre Garcon, 14 Samuel Giguere
SE 88 Marvin Harrison, 11 Anthony Gonzalez, 83 Roy Hall, 6 Taj Smith
TE 44 Dallas Clark, 84 Jacob Tamme, 80 Jamie Petrowski
H-B 47 Gijon Robinson, 86 Tom Santi
RT 71 Ryan Diem, 75 Michael Toudouze, 72 Corey Hilliard
RG Mike Pollak
C 61 Jamey Richard, 53 Steve Justice
LG 65 Ryan Lilja
LT 67 Tony Ugoh, 74 Charlie Johnson
RDE 93 Dwight Freeney, 92 Marcus Howard, 94 Curtis Johnson
RDT 99 Antonio Johnson, 90 Daniel Muir
LDT 96 Keyunta Dawson, 68 Eric Foster
LDE 79 Raheem Brock, 98 Robert Mathis
RLB 51 Jordan Senn, 59 Rufus Alexander
MLB 58 Gary Brackett, 52 Buster Davis, Mike Okwo
LLB 55 Clint Session, 50 Philip Wheeler
RCB 23 Tim Jennings, 25 Michael Coe, 34 TJ Rushing, 39 Brandon Foster, Travis Keys
LCB 28 Marlin Jackson, 20 Dante Hughes, 42 Nick Graham, 36 Brandon Sumrall
SS 21 Bob Sanders, 40 Jamie Silva
FS 41 Antoine Bethea, 33 Melvin Bullitt, 37 Brannon Condren
K 4 Adam Vinatieri
P 17 Hunter Smith
LS 48 Justin Snow
• I normally hate this kind of speculation, but how about signing Mike Furrey? He was just inexplicably released by the Lions. The Colts need a reliable slot receiver and Furrey is quick and sure handed. Y’know, he started his pro career with the Colts and he nearly made the roster, but that was when he was a safety. He’d be a stop-gap solution at best, but I bet he’d come cheap.
• The Titans signed former Colt LaJuan Ramsey. I bet they wished they kept Antonio Johnson instead.
• So Freddy Keiaho’s a restricted free agent, eh? That means he’s probably a Colt for one more year. Should he leave early, look for Clint Session to slide into his Will spot and Philip Wheeler to take over Sessions' Sam spot. Should that not work out, you could see Jordan Senn take Keiaho's spot and Session stay put.
• If Percy Harvin’s there at 27, I think you have to grab him.
• Depth chart of signed players
QB 18 Peyton Manning, 12 Jim Sorgi
RB 29 Joseph Addai, 32 Mike Hart, 35 Chad Simpson, 27 Lance Ball, 30 Clifton Dawson
FL 87 Reggie Wayne, 85 Pierre Garcon, 14 Samuel Giguere
SE 88 Marvin Harrison, 11 Anthony Gonzalez, 83 Roy Hall, 6 Taj Smith
TE 44 Dallas Clark, 84 Jacob Tamme, 80 Jamie Petrowski
H-B 47 Gijon Robinson, 86 Tom Santi
RT 71 Ryan Diem, 75 Michael Toudouze, 72 Corey Hilliard
RG Mike Pollak
C 61 Jamey Richard, 53 Steve Justice
LG 65 Ryan Lilja
LT 67 Tony Ugoh, 74 Charlie Johnson
RDE 93 Dwight Freeney, 92 Marcus Howard, 94 Curtis Johnson
RDT 99 Antonio Johnson, 90 Daniel Muir
LDT 96 Keyunta Dawson, 68 Eric Foster
LDE 79 Raheem Brock, 98 Robert Mathis
RLB 51 Jordan Senn, 59 Rufus Alexander
MLB 58 Gary Brackett, 52 Buster Davis, Mike Okwo
LLB 55 Clint Session, 50 Philip Wheeler
RCB 23 Tim Jennings, 25 Michael Coe, 34 TJ Rushing, 39 Brandon Foster, Travis Keys
LCB 28 Marlin Jackson, 20 Dante Hughes, 42 Nick Graham, 36 Brandon Sumrall
SS 21 Bob Sanders, 40 Jamie Silva
FS 41 Antoine Bethea, 33 Melvin Bullitt, 37 Brannon Condren
K 4 Adam Vinatieri
P 17 Hunter Smith
LS 48 Justin Snow
Friday, February 6, 2009
Know Your Colts: Quarterbacks
ColtPlay is a huge fan of Stampede Blue. It’s an awesome site every Colts fan should visit every single day (at least). It has great news, insight and opinions. And you have to like their columnist shake n bake’s analysis of the Colts’ quarterback position:
“We all know what's up with the QBs on the roster (Peyton-awesome, Sorgi-not so much) so straight to the Draft.”
He’s right, but ColtPlay knows its readers will demand a longer article. And I’m used to being paid by the word, so …
18 Peyton Manning
Numbers: 6047/228/4.87c in 98 2008 stats: 16 games played/16 games started (12-4), 555-371-4,002-27-12 passing (sacked 14-86), 20-21-1 rushing, 1/0 fumbles/lost 2008 preseason stats: None Status: Signed through 2012
Manning is, as Stampede Blue pointed out, awesome. In fact, he may be the best quarterback in NFL history. Even if he isn’t, the fact that we can say that with a straight face indicates that there’s little wrong with him. Actually, if you break his game down, you’ll see that he’s at the elite level in every category except perhaps running with the ball, although he’s surprisingly good at that (and I’m not sure how good an idea it is to run your quarterback these days anyway).
Since he scores highest in the categories reflected by the mental aspect of the game, there’s little reason to believe he’ll slow down soon. And of course, there’s his legendary durability. Y’know, Manning has only missed one regular-season snap in his entire 10-year NFL career, and that was for a broken jaw!
So that’s why Colts fans were in shock and disbelief last summer when it was announced that a bursa sac problem would keep Manning out of the preseason. And, in fact, when the regular season started, Manning looked off — his mobility was severely limited and his aim was more than a little off.
Although both the Colts and Manning himself were secretive about the injury, even the most casual observers could see Manning improve as the season went along. The Colts were 3-4 after seven games, then they won the next nine in a row. And Manning, handicapped with perhaps the league’s worst running game and a so-so defense, basically just put the Colts on his back and carried them into the playoffs.
Take a look at this chart of Manning’s passer rating progress:
The red games are losses, the blue ones are wins/ You can see that — other than a few aberrations like the inexplicable Cleveland game — the trend was upward. And take another look at that chart. Look how often he was over 100. For a little perspective, only one quarterback finished the season over 100, and only four (Manning was one of them) finished with better than 95.
Manning won the MVP. I can only congratulate the voters on their astute choice.
12 Jim Sorgi
Numbers: 6037/207/4.68pd in 04 2008 stats: 1 game played/0 games started, 30-22-178-0-0 passing (sacked 0-0), 5-8-0 rushing 2008 preseason stats: 3 games played/3 games started, 31-20-198-0-1 passing (sacked 3-16), 2-11-0 rushing, 1/1 fumbles/lost Status: Signed through 2010
It’s hard to make too many observations about Sorgi from what we’ve seen of him in the pros. He’s always playing against second- or third-stringers whether it’s the preseason or some useless regular season ender in which Manning handles the first possession or two to keep his consecutive starts streak alive, then Sorgi takes over.
From what I’ve seen of him, Sorgi’s a pretty accurate dart thrower whose accuracy suffers a little when he throws long. He’s agile enough to evade rushers, but he has to be because his primary calling card is how long he holds onto the ball — sometimes it’s excruciating to watch him dancing around back there trying to make up his mind who to throw to. And while it’s been often repeated that he ran a 4.68 forty at the combine, he doesn’t play like it. Sorgi is virtually no threat to run.
How this affects the draft and free agency
Remember how the Colts signed Quinn Gray and Jared Lorenzen last summer and everyone thought they were there to take Sorgi’s job? They weren’t. They were there to back him up if Manning wasn’t ready to start the season. He was, and they were cut.
So the Colts re-signed Josh Betts (the guy they cut to sign them) to the practice squad. Betts is a big-armed bomber who isn’t very good at too many other things. He may be invited back to camp, but since they haven’t signed him yet it doesn’t look good for him.
The fact is, Manning is the starter and Sorgi is the backup for the time being. If they add a quarterback or quarterbacks, it’s likely that it will be a developmental guy who could be kept on as a No. 3 in 2009 and then compete for the No. 2 job in 2010. They are unlikely to spend a draft pick on one, but will no doubt be active in the search for undrafted free agents. They tend to like classic drop-back guys with big arms and strong characters and work ethics. A couple of guys I really like are Abilene Christian’s Billy Malone (if he clears his physical) and West Texas A&M’s Keith Null.
Quarterbacks drafted since Polian took over
2004 Sixth Jim Sorgi
1998 First Peyton Manning
“We all know what's up with the QBs on the roster (Peyton-awesome, Sorgi-not so much) so straight to the Draft.”
He’s right, but ColtPlay knows its readers will demand a longer article. And I’m used to being paid by the word, so …
18 Peyton Manning
Numbers: 6047/228/4.87c in 98 2008 stats: 16 games played/16 games started (12-4), 555-371-4,002-27-12 passing (sacked 14-86), 20-21-1 rushing, 1/0 fumbles/lost 2008 preseason stats: None Status: Signed through 2012
Manning is, as Stampede Blue pointed out, awesome. In fact, he may be the best quarterback in NFL history. Even if he isn’t, the fact that we can say that with a straight face indicates that there’s little wrong with him. Actually, if you break his game down, you’ll see that he’s at the elite level in every category except perhaps running with the ball, although he’s surprisingly good at that (and I’m not sure how good an idea it is to run your quarterback these days anyway).
Since he scores highest in the categories reflected by the mental aspect of the game, there’s little reason to believe he’ll slow down soon. And of course, there’s his legendary durability. Y’know, Manning has only missed one regular-season snap in his entire 10-year NFL career, and that was for a broken jaw!
So that’s why Colts fans were in shock and disbelief last summer when it was announced that a bursa sac problem would keep Manning out of the preseason. And, in fact, when the regular season started, Manning looked off — his mobility was severely limited and his aim was more than a little off.
Although both the Colts and Manning himself were secretive about the injury, even the most casual observers could see Manning improve as the season went along. The Colts were 3-4 after seven games, then they won the next nine in a row. And Manning, handicapped with perhaps the league’s worst running game and a so-so defense, basically just put the Colts on his back and carried them into the playoffs.
Take a look at this chart of Manning’s passer rating progress:
The red games are losses, the blue ones are wins/ You can see that — other than a few aberrations like the inexplicable Cleveland game — the trend was upward. And take another look at that chart. Look how often he was over 100. For a little perspective, only one quarterback finished the season over 100, and only four (Manning was one of them) finished with better than 95.
Manning won the MVP. I can only congratulate the voters on their astute choice.
12 Jim Sorgi
Numbers: 6037/207/4.68pd in 04 2008 stats: 1 game played/0 games started, 30-22-178-0-0 passing (sacked 0-0), 5-8-0 rushing 2008 preseason stats: 3 games played/3 games started, 31-20-198-0-1 passing (sacked 3-16), 2-11-0 rushing, 1/1 fumbles/lost Status: Signed through 2010
It’s hard to make too many observations about Sorgi from what we’ve seen of him in the pros. He’s always playing against second- or third-stringers whether it’s the preseason or some useless regular season ender in which Manning handles the first possession or two to keep his consecutive starts streak alive, then Sorgi takes over.
From what I’ve seen of him, Sorgi’s a pretty accurate dart thrower whose accuracy suffers a little when he throws long. He’s agile enough to evade rushers, but he has to be because his primary calling card is how long he holds onto the ball — sometimes it’s excruciating to watch him dancing around back there trying to make up his mind who to throw to. And while it’s been often repeated that he ran a 4.68 forty at the combine, he doesn’t play like it. Sorgi is virtually no threat to run.
How this affects the draft and free agency
Remember how the Colts signed Quinn Gray and Jared Lorenzen last summer and everyone thought they were there to take Sorgi’s job? They weren’t. They were there to back him up if Manning wasn’t ready to start the season. He was, and they were cut.
So the Colts re-signed Josh Betts (the guy they cut to sign them) to the practice squad. Betts is a big-armed bomber who isn’t very good at too many other things. He may be invited back to camp, but since they haven’t signed him yet it doesn’t look good for him.
The fact is, Manning is the starter and Sorgi is the backup for the time being. If they add a quarterback or quarterbacks, it’s likely that it will be a developmental guy who could be kept on as a No. 3 in 2009 and then compete for the No. 2 job in 2010. They are unlikely to spend a draft pick on one, but will no doubt be active in the search for undrafted free agents. They tend to like classic drop-back guys with big arms and strong characters and work ethics. A couple of guys I really like are Abilene Christian’s Billy Malone (if he clears his physical) and West Texas A&M’s Keith Null.
Quarterbacks drafted since Polian took over
2004 Sixth Jim Sorgi
1998 First Peyton Manning
Thursday, February 5, 2009
Know Your Colts: Running Backs
The Colts were 31st last year in rushing yards and dead last in yards per rushing attempt. At ColtPlay, we think that’s ridiculous. Not only do the Colts have a high-powered offense, but they were usually ahead in most games — exactly the situation where running the ball makes the most sense. That they aren’t in the top half of the league in rushing yards boggles the mind.
Fans have floated a few theories as to why. As part of ColtPlay’s look at the Colts’ running backs, it might be interesting to look at them:
Blame Manning’s injury: Early in the season, many observers noted that Manning’s bursa sac ailments reduced his mobility and prevented him from being able to accomplish the stretch play — the Colts’ bread-and-butter in the running game. While that is true, it seems to me that the running game should be able to survive the loss of one play (heck, the passing game was reduced by about 40 percent of its options). In fact, if the team’s quarterback is ailing, isn’t it incumbent on the running backs to pick up the slack? Shouldn’t the running game actually have gotten more yards?
Here’s a chart that shows how many passing yards (blue bars) and rushing yards (red bars) the Colts got in their 16 regular-season games. The blue line represents the NFL average of passing yards per game and the red line represents the NFL average of rushing yards per game.
You’ll note there’s no discernable trend in either. While Manning’s passing efficiency improved as the affects of his injury lessened, he did not pass for more yards, nor did the backs rush for more.
Also interesting is that while the Colts recorded just one game with fewer passing yards than the NFL average, they recorded only two games above the NFL rushing average. And one of them was in Game 16, in which a guy named Lance Ball was the primary ballcarrier.
My conclusion is that Manning’s injury didn’t hurt the running game, but that the running game let the Colts down while Manning was ailing.
Blame the offensive line: It’s become trendy to blame the Colts’ rushing woes on the rookies and injury replacements on the offensive line. While it is true that the Colts lost both of their starting guards from 2007 (Jake Scott to free agency and Ryan Lilja to injury) and that left tackle Tony Ugoh missed four games due to injury and inconsistent play and star center Jeff Saturday also missed four games due to injury, the line didn’t actually suffer all that much.
While Charlie Johnson was not great at left tackle, he was pretty darn good at guard. And while Steve justice did not look comfortable and seemed to lack functional strength, the other rookie linemen certainly were not the cause of the rushing problems. The Colts were 16-4 (an .800 winning percentage) in games started by rookies Mike Pollak and Jamey Richard, and 44-16 (a .733 winning percentage) without them. I charted their progress as the season went along, and really don’t think the Colts would have played noticeably better had Lilja replaced either. Although I will admit that both were somewhat better in pass pro than they were in blocking for the runningbacks, the difference was not that great — neither was all that bad in the running game. I’d certainly grade both better than veterans Ryan Diem, Dan Federkeil or even Johnson. But that will all come out in a later article.
And if it was the rooks’ fault, you would have seen the rushing game record better numbers in the games they did not start, but it didn’t. If the problem arose from their learning curve, then you would have noticed the Colts’ rushing attack get better as the season progressed, but it didn’t.
My conclusion is that while the Colts do not have a powerful run-blocking line, it was not significantly worse in 2008 than it was in any of the previous Manning-led seasons. Rookies and injury replacements played significant chunks of time, but they didn’t appear to hurt the line all that much. They would have had to have been awful for the rushing game to suffer the way it did.
Blame the coaches: Don’t be ridiculous.
Blame injuries: In the 2008 season, Joseph Addai reported head, hamstring and shoulder injuries, and he missed four games. Dominic Rhodes suffered chest and ankle injuries, which kept him out of one game. Mike Hart’s ACL tear led to 14 missed games. Chad Simpson’s ankle game him trouble. A concussion sent Clifton Dawson to the IR. It got so bad, the Colts signed (and played) well-worn and never-all-that-good-anyway Najeh Davenport and activated a shadowy figure named Lance Ball from the practice squad.
Injuries to running backs obviously played a part in the Colts’ tepid running attack — and that’s worrisome. The Colts don’t have one of those offenses that expose backs to a high number of big hits (like Denver, for example). If they are getting injured that often, maybe they are an injury-prone bunch. Not good news.
And it’s important to keep in mind that injuries usually affect running backs more profoundly than players at other positions. Remember Edgerrin James before and after his ACL tear? Two different players.
Conclusion? If injuries are the problem, then maybe that brings us to the unspeakable, but inevitable …
Blame the backs: Maybe, just maybe, the Colts don’t have the enviable pool of talent in the offensive backfield that the media and fans assure us they do. So, in that spirit, here’s ColtPlay’s look at the Colts’ running backs. Before we look at the individual backs, let’s look at some of their 2008 statistics. It’s interesting that Addai and Rhodes had virtually the same number of carries, with similarly unnimpressive results.
Yards per carry
Ball 6.385
Hart 4.500
Rhodes 3.539
Addai 3.510
Davenport 3.250
Simpson 3.000
Yards per carry without longest run included
Ball 5.000
Addai 3.383
Rhodes 3.311
Davenport 2.571
Simpson 2.500
Hart 2.000
Percent of carries for 1st downs or touchdowns
Hart 100.00
Simpson 46.67
Ball 38.46
Addai 25.16
Rhodes 21.71
Davenport 12.50
Percent of carries stuffed
Ball 0.00
Hart 0.00
Addai 11.61
Davenport 12.50
Simpson 13.33
Rhodes 17.11
Fumbles per 100 touches
Rhodes 0.000
Davenport 0.000
Addai 0.556
Simpson 5.556
Ball 7.143
Hart 33.333
Percentage of passes caught
Ball 100.00
Davenport 100.00
Hart 100.00
Rhodes 76.27
Simpson 75.00
Addai 64.10
Yards per catch
Hart 18.00
Davenport 13.50
Simpson 10.00
Addai 8.24
Rhodes 6.71
Ball 5.00
Yards per pass target
Hart 18.00
Davenport 13.50
Simpson 7.50
Addai 5.28
Rhodes 5.12
Ball 5.00
Yards after the catch per catch
Hart 15.00
Simpson 10.33
Rhodes 5.87
Addai 4.36
Ball 0.00
Davenport 0.00
Percentage of 1st downs and touchdowns per catch
Hart 100.00
Davenport 50.00
Addai 44.00
Rhodes 37.78
Simpson 33.33
Ball 0.00
29 Joseph Addai Numbers: 5112/214/4.40c in 06 2008 Statistics: 155-544-5 rushing, 25-206-2 receiving, 1/1 fumble/lost 2008 preseason statistics: 12 games played/12 games started (10-2), 18-35-0 rushing, 6-25-0 receiving, 1/1 fumble/lost, 1 tackle
After James left in 2006, everyone knew the Colts would select a back in the first round. The media and fans were about evenly divided between Minnesota’s Laurence Maroney and LSU’s Addai. Maroney had a bit more magic in his step, but Addai played a more complete game. I thought both sides were wrong. I wanted UCLA’s Maurice Jones-Drew. Guess what? I still do.
But I digress. The Colts picked Addai, and he is their guy. I have to admit he looked really good as a rook. Although Rhodes started every game (rushing for just 641 yards and a paltry 3.43 yards per carry), Addai outgained him significantly (1,081 yards and 4.78 yards per carry). He also ran decent routes, he caught the ball and he blocked like a pro. It was a great season, and the Colts won the Super Bowl. But while Addai started that game, Rhodes outgained him 113 yards to 77. In it, Addai really didn’t look ready for prime time.
But Addai moved in as the starter for 2007 and looked, well, pretty decent (1,072 yards and 4.11 yards per carry). Rhodes signed with the Raiders and was just one of many backs who suffered behind their poor line, lackluster passing game and … uhm … eccentric play calling. Then came 2008. Rhodes came back, but Addai was the established starter. He didn’t produce like one. He couldn’t run (554 yards and a 3.51 average per carry); he couldn’t catch a cold (he brought down 64.10 percent of passes thrown his way, while starting running backs average about 80 percent). He was so bad that the Colts basically abandoned the running game and stopped throwing to him.
While you can say 2008 was an aberration that happened because of a multitude of injuries to Addai, I would counter with two arguments:
a) Even at his best, Addai is not that great. Good, but not great. Look at the stats of the top back in Indy since the dawn of the Peyton Manning era:
1998 Faulk 1,319 yards rushing/908 yards receiving
1999 James 1,553/586
2000 James 1,709/594
2001 Rhodes 1,104/224
2002 James 989/354
2003 James 1,259/292
2004 James 1,538/483
2005 James 1,506/337
2006 Addai 1,081/325
2007 Addai 1,072/364
2008 Addai 544/206
Okay, now which of these backs just doesn’t belong? I don’t blame Addai. There’s a real difference between backs drafted in the top 10 picks of the first round (Faulk was picked 2nd overall and James 4th) and backs drafted at the tail end of the first. As long as the Colts keep winning, they won’t have a chance at the Adrian Petersons of the world and will instead have to field backs that are somewhat less complete or outstanding. It is ColtPlay’s assertion that Addai can only truly be effective if he’s part of a committee.
b) And he’s only good if he’s healthy. Addai’s 2008 was atrocious in a large part because he was nicked up. For many players, I’d consider that an aberration, but I’m always observant of injuries to backs because it often affects them more than other players, and Addai has a long history of durability problems. Although he’s only missed five of 48 possible regular-season games as a pro, he never really won the halfback job at LSU because he couldn’t be relied upon to be healthy enough to play.
38 Dominic Rhodes Numbers: 5090/209/4.47pd in 01 2008 Statistics: 152-538-6 rushing, 45-302-3 receiving 2008 preseason statistics: 15 games played/0 games started (2-2), 13-39-0 rushing
I’ve never been a big Rhodes guy. Actually, that’s not entirely true. When he showed up as an undrafted rook out of Nowhere U and won the No. 2 job behind Edgerrin James in 2001, I was really, really impressed. But then Edge tore his ACL and Rhodes stepped in as the starter. Yeah, he gained 1,104 yards and the fans went wild for him, but the Colts lost most of those games when they would have won most of them if Edge was still in there. He wasn’t James. That’s not surprising; very few Edgerrin James have walked this Earth. I know Rhodes has a lot of fans out there, but face it, Rhodes isn’t a No. 1 back. And then he tore his own ACL. And like all backs who do that, he wasn’t the same afterwards. Look at his yards per carry through his career: 4.74, 4.24, 4.79, ACL tear, 2.95, 3.43, signs with Oakland, 4.03, goes back to Indy, 3.54.
And these days, Rhodes plays hard and draws a lot of praise. People — the press, fans, Polian himself — rave about his courage, his discipline, his selflessness; but they neglect to mention that he averages about a yard per carry less than he should and has almost no breakaway potential. I understand. I like a guy who plays hard. And I know that a lot of that love comes from Rhodes’ performance in Super Bowl XVI. He really did step up in that game, although a big part of that was because Addai disappeared.
And now he’s an unrestricted free agent. He’s a 30-year-old back with lots of miles on his legs and an ACL tear in his past. He’s not likely to get a ton of bids for his services. The Colts will invite him back — mostly out of gratitude — but I really don’t think he’s the back you want to hitch your wagon to.
32 Mike Hart Numbers: 5087/206/4.69c in 08 2008 Statistics: 2-9-0 rushing, 1-18-0 receiving, 1/0 fumble/lost 2008 preseason statistics: 5 games played/0 games started, 17-95-0 rushing, 7-75-0 receiving, 1 special-teams tackle
I’ll admit I didn’t want the Colts to draft Hart. Yeah, I knew he was an incredible guy who was a one-man gang in college. But I watched him run at the combine and I immediately thought he was a great college player who just didn’t have what it takes to be an NFL back. And I remembered how hard Michigan rode him and wondered what he’d have left. When they did pick him, I kind of thought Bill Polian must know something; but my hopes were dashed when Polian himself compared Hart to James Mungro — a great guy who scared nobody as a back.
But then I watched Hart in preseason. He was magic. Really. Okay, it was generally against guys who are working at Wal-Mart now, but he looked like the second coming of Emmitt Smith out there. He was hard to find and harder to bring down. He ran nice routes, caught the ball and picked up blitzes. It wasn’t enough to make me think he’d be a threat to start or anything, but he really looked like he could be a nice change-of-pace back who could pick up tough yards, catch a few passes and pick up a few blitzes.
And it looked like that would happen once the season started. But then he tore his ACL. I’m sure he’ll work hard to rehab, but we all know backs are different after the ol’ ACL goes. But it brings up a sort of a dilemma — will Hart be robbed of what little speed he had and be rendered useless, or will he be a wily back that never relied on speed and simply take over where he left off?
Nobody knows for sure. And don’t pretend you do. The best-case scenario is that he is what they expected him to be before he was hurt — and that was a backup.
35 Chad Simpson Numbers: 5085/216/4.40c in 08 2008 Statistics: 15-45-1 rushing, 3-30-0 receiving, 15-344-0 kick returns, 2 special-teams tackles, 1/0 fumbles/lost 2008 preseason statistics: 5 games played/0 games started, 16-49-0 rushing, 3-22-0 receiving, 1-6-0 kick return, 1 tackle, 1 special-teams tackle
Here’s what ColtPlay said about Simpson when the Colts signed him as an undrafted free agent last spring:
Speed, power, wiggle, a nose for the end zone and a lightning-quick first step — what more could you want? Well, vision, route running, blocking skills and soft hands — all of which Simpson lacks.
Wow, kinds feels good to be right. As a rookie, Simpson showed all of those traits — both good and bad. The kid is a talent, but I don’t think he’ll ever be a big-time NFL back. Still, he could be a guy who can step in and do a decent job if he’s not exposed too much, especially if he’s running wild in the fourth quarter while tired defenses are trying to contain him.
Perhaps more important is his ability as a return man. He got a trial last year and was tentative at first, but seemed to get the hang of it as things went along. I expect he’ll be given a chance to win the primary return job outright this summer, but he won’t be the favorite.
30 Clifton Dawson Numbers: 5095/214/4.54pd in 07 2008 Statistics: 2 games played/0 games started 2008 preseason statistics: 5 games played/0 games started, 7-20-0 rushing, 1-6-0 receiving
If you saw Dawson play at Harvard, you’d probably think he was on his way to a long NFL career. He just ran all over the Ivy League, looking like a man among boys. In his 39 starts, he ran 958-4,841-60 and caught 80-759-4 in stylish fashion. The Colts signed him after the 2007 draft, and things changed for him a little. Facing NFL players instead of Ivy Leaguers, he could run over or away from them any more. He did everything the right way, but just didn’t seem quite quick enough to make an impact. He was a final cut. The Bengals grabbed him and he dressed for a couple of games before they sent him packing. The Colts signed him again, and he played a little after injuries hit (hmmm), rushing 30-64-1 and catching two passes for 15 yards. He was brought back for the 2008 camp and again was a final cut. They signed him again when injuries struck again, but after a couple of games of running around on special teams, he suffered a concussion and wound up on injured reserve.
I’m pretty sure Dawson will be asked to come back to Colts camp for 2009. And I’m pretty sure he’ll get cut. But I wouldn’t feel too bad for him. He’s a Harvard grad.
27 Lance Ball Numbers: 5091/220/4.56pd in 08 2008 Statistics: 13-83-0 rushing, 1-5-0 receiving, 1/0 fumbles/lost 2008 preseason statistics: 4 games played/0 games started, 31-137-2 rushing, 8-43-0 receiving, 1/1 fumbles/lost, 1 fumble recovery
Finally, a little good news — one Colts back did much better than expected last season. Ball never really took hold of the starting job at Maryland because of the presence of similarly sized, similarly skilled Keon Lattimore, but did manage to run for 549-2,487-26 in college. Signed as an undrafted free agent by the Rams, he had a very good camp and preseason with them, but couldn’t get a spot in their crowded backfield and was waived, then signed to the practice squad. When injuries forced a practice squad shuffle, the Rams cut him again and the Colts picked him up. He hung on their practice squad until he was activated for the final regular season game.
In a game that primarily pit backups against backups, Ball ran looked like the best back on the field. He ran with authority, followed his blockers and shook off would-be tacklers. He did drop the ball just as he was crossing the goal line for what would have been his first NFL regular-season touchdown, and he refreshingly blamed it on opening-night jitters.
Of course, one game against the Titans’ scrubs doesn’t say that much about a back’s NFL potential, but I do remember Ball from college and even high school in Teaneck, New Jersey (I was working for the sports section of a nearby paper at the time). As a runner, he’s strong and very quick in small spaces. He makes himself small and is hard to bring down once he has a head of steam. In college, he was just fast enough to be effective outside, but might not have quite enough to do that in the pros. Ball showed he was a decent receiver with soft hands, but he needs to run better routes and be more aware of the passing game’s nuances before he can contribute that much in the NFL. He demonstrated better run-blocking skills than pass-blocking moves, but has the potential to improve in that area.
Sounds good, right? Well, don’t think Ball is the answer to the team’s running woes, or even a shoo-in to make the team. Right now, he’s a pretty good inside runner with the potential to contribute as a pass-catcher and blocker. With a good camp (and no fumbles), he could make the team as an extra back or a short-yardage specialist.
Note: This is the first time I have mentioned Davenport without pointing out his lack of wisdom as regards where he poops.
How this affects the draft and free agency
Okay, let’s see what the Colts have:
Addai: Almost good enough to be a featured back, but needs a strong supporting cast and someone who can step in when necessary
Rhodes: A career No. 2 who’s approaching the end of his career
Hart: A guy who could be a decent No. 2 back if he rebounds from a torn ACL
Simpson: A maybe kick returner who could take a couple of snaps at runningback
Dawson: A CFL player on an NFL team
Ball: A between-the-tackles bowling ball who could stick if all goes well for him
Hey, I realize what the facts are. The Colts have invested a first-round pick in Addai and signed him to a five-year contract. He’s here for a while. And if the Colts grab a young back in the draft, it won’t be to replace him, but to augment him — at least in the short term.
There’s an outside chance the Colts will draft a back in the first round, but you can forget all those mocks that have Knowshon Moreno or Beanie Wells sliding to (or even past!) the Colts’ pick at No. 27. Moreno is a top-10 pick (top 15 at the worst) and Wells will be gone by 27 too.
They could grab Pitt’s LeSean McCoy. Or they could wait until the second and select a guy like Iowa's Shonn Greene, UConn’s Donald Brown, North Carolina State’s Andre Brown or Clemson’s James Davis. None of these guys is a truly complete back who could send Addai to the bench from Day 1, although McCoy could evolve into an outstanding back given time.
Of course, there is a chance that the Colts’ brass will decide that Addai will hold together, Rhodes has yet another year in his tired old legs and Mike Hart will bounce right back. That could happen; but I really, really hope not.
Running backs drafted since Polian took over
2008 Sixth Mike Hart
2006 First Joseph Addai
2005 Seventh Anthony Davis
2002 Sixth Brian Allen
1999 First Edgerrin James
Fans have floated a few theories as to why. As part of ColtPlay’s look at the Colts’ running backs, it might be interesting to look at them:
Blame Manning’s injury: Early in the season, many observers noted that Manning’s bursa sac ailments reduced his mobility and prevented him from being able to accomplish the stretch play — the Colts’ bread-and-butter in the running game. While that is true, it seems to me that the running game should be able to survive the loss of one play (heck, the passing game was reduced by about 40 percent of its options). In fact, if the team’s quarterback is ailing, isn’t it incumbent on the running backs to pick up the slack? Shouldn’t the running game actually have gotten more yards?
Here’s a chart that shows how many passing yards (blue bars) and rushing yards (red bars) the Colts got in their 16 regular-season games. The blue line represents the NFL average of passing yards per game and the red line represents the NFL average of rushing yards per game.
You’ll note there’s no discernable trend in either. While Manning’s passing efficiency improved as the affects of his injury lessened, he did not pass for more yards, nor did the backs rush for more.
Also interesting is that while the Colts recorded just one game with fewer passing yards than the NFL average, they recorded only two games above the NFL rushing average. And one of them was in Game 16, in which a guy named Lance Ball was the primary ballcarrier.
My conclusion is that Manning’s injury didn’t hurt the running game, but that the running game let the Colts down while Manning was ailing.
Blame the offensive line: It’s become trendy to blame the Colts’ rushing woes on the rookies and injury replacements on the offensive line. While it is true that the Colts lost both of their starting guards from 2007 (Jake Scott to free agency and Ryan Lilja to injury) and that left tackle Tony Ugoh missed four games due to injury and inconsistent play and star center Jeff Saturday also missed four games due to injury, the line didn’t actually suffer all that much.
While Charlie Johnson was not great at left tackle, he was pretty darn good at guard. And while Steve justice did not look comfortable and seemed to lack functional strength, the other rookie linemen certainly were not the cause of the rushing problems. The Colts were 16-4 (an .800 winning percentage) in games started by rookies Mike Pollak and Jamey Richard, and 44-16 (a .733 winning percentage) without them. I charted their progress as the season went along, and really don’t think the Colts would have played noticeably better had Lilja replaced either. Although I will admit that both were somewhat better in pass pro than they were in blocking for the runningbacks, the difference was not that great — neither was all that bad in the running game. I’d certainly grade both better than veterans Ryan Diem, Dan Federkeil or even Johnson. But that will all come out in a later article.
And if it was the rooks’ fault, you would have seen the rushing game record better numbers in the games they did not start, but it didn’t. If the problem arose from their learning curve, then you would have noticed the Colts’ rushing attack get better as the season progressed, but it didn’t.
My conclusion is that while the Colts do not have a powerful run-blocking line, it was not significantly worse in 2008 than it was in any of the previous Manning-led seasons. Rookies and injury replacements played significant chunks of time, but they didn’t appear to hurt the line all that much. They would have had to have been awful for the rushing game to suffer the way it did.
Blame the coaches: Don’t be ridiculous.
Blame injuries: In the 2008 season, Joseph Addai reported head, hamstring and shoulder injuries, and he missed four games. Dominic Rhodes suffered chest and ankle injuries, which kept him out of one game. Mike Hart’s ACL tear led to 14 missed games. Chad Simpson’s ankle game him trouble. A concussion sent Clifton Dawson to the IR. It got so bad, the Colts signed (and played) well-worn and never-all-that-good-anyway Najeh Davenport and activated a shadowy figure named Lance Ball from the practice squad.
Injuries to running backs obviously played a part in the Colts’ tepid running attack — and that’s worrisome. The Colts don’t have one of those offenses that expose backs to a high number of big hits (like Denver, for example). If they are getting injured that often, maybe they are an injury-prone bunch. Not good news.
And it’s important to keep in mind that injuries usually affect running backs more profoundly than players at other positions. Remember Edgerrin James before and after his ACL tear? Two different players.
Conclusion? If injuries are the problem, then maybe that brings us to the unspeakable, but inevitable …
Blame the backs: Maybe, just maybe, the Colts don’t have the enviable pool of talent in the offensive backfield that the media and fans assure us they do. So, in that spirit, here’s ColtPlay’s look at the Colts’ running backs. Before we look at the individual backs, let’s look at some of their 2008 statistics. It’s interesting that Addai and Rhodes had virtually the same number of carries, with similarly unnimpressive results.
Yards per carry
Ball 6.385
Hart 4.500
Rhodes 3.539
Addai 3.510
Davenport 3.250
Simpson 3.000
Yards per carry without longest run included
Ball 5.000
Addai 3.383
Rhodes 3.311
Davenport 2.571
Simpson 2.500
Hart 2.000
Percent of carries for 1st downs or touchdowns
Hart 100.00
Simpson 46.67
Ball 38.46
Addai 25.16
Rhodes 21.71
Davenport 12.50
Percent of carries stuffed
Ball 0.00
Hart 0.00
Addai 11.61
Davenport 12.50
Simpson 13.33
Rhodes 17.11
Fumbles per 100 touches
Rhodes 0.000
Davenport 0.000
Addai 0.556
Simpson 5.556
Ball 7.143
Hart 33.333
Percentage of passes caught
Ball 100.00
Davenport 100.00
Hart 100.00
Rhodes 76.27
Simpson 75.00
Addai 64.10
Yards per catch
Hart 18.00
Davenport 13.50
Simpson 10.00
Addai 8.24
Rhodes 6.71
Ball 5.00
Yards per pass target
Hart 18.00
Davenport 13.50
Simpson 7.50
Addai 5.28
Rhodes 5.12
Ball 5.00
Yards after the catch per catch
Hart 15.00
Simpson 10.33
Rhodes 5.87
Addai 4.36
Ball 0.00
Davenport 0.00
Percentage of 1st downs and touchdowns per catch
Hart 100.00
Davenport 50.00
Addai 44.00
Rhodes 37.78
Simpson 33.33
Ball 0.00
29 Joseph Addai Numbers: 5112/214/4.40c in 06 2008 Statistics: 155-544-5 rushing, 25-206-2 receiving, 1/1 fumble/lost 2008 preseason statistics: 12 games played/12 games started (10-2), 18-35-0 rushing, 6-25-0 receiving, 1/1 fumble/lost, 1 tackle
After James left in 2006, everyone knew the Colts would select a back in the first round. The media and fans were about evenly divided between Minnesota’s Laurence Maroney and LSU’s Addai. Maroney had a bit more magic in his step, but Addai played a more complete game. I thought both sides were wrong. I wanted UCLA’s Maurice Jones-Drew. Guess what? I still do.
But I digress. The Colts picked Addai, and he is their guy. I have to admit he looked really good as a rook. Although Rhodes started every game (rushing for just 641 yards and a paltry 3.43 yards per carry), Addai outgained him significantly (1,081 yards and 4.78 yards per carry). He also ran decent routes, he caught the ball and he blocked like a pro. It was a great season, and the Colts won the Super Bowl. But while Addai started that game, Rhodes outgained him 113 yards to 77. In it, Addai really didn’t look ready for prime time.
But Addai moved in as the starter for 2007 and looked, well, pretty decent (1,072 yards and 4.11 yards per carry). Rhodes signed with the Raiders and was just one of many backs who suffered behind their poor line, lackluster passing game and … uhm … eccentric play calling. Then came 2008. Rhodes came back, but Addai was the established starter. He didn’t produce like one. He couldn’t run (554 yards and a 3.51 average per carry); he couldn’t catch a cold (he brought down 64.10 percent of passes thrown his way, while starting running backs average about 80 percent). He was so bad that the Colts basically abandoned the running game and stopped throwing to him.
While you can say 2008 was an aberration that happened because of a multitude of injuries to Addai, I would counter with two arguments:
a) Even at his best, Addai is not that great. Good, but not great. Look at the stats of the top back in Indy since the dawn of the Peyton Manning era:
1998 Faulk 1,319 yards rushing/908 yards receiving
1999 James 1,553/586
2000 James 1,709/594
2001 Rhodes 1,104/224
2002 James 989/354
2003 James 1,259/292
2004 James 1,538/483
2005 James 1,506/337
2006 Addai 1,081/325
2007 Addai 1,072/364
2008 Addai 544/206
Okay, now which of these backs just doesn’t belong? I don’t blame Addai. There’s a real difference between backs drafted in the top 10 picks of the first round (Faulk was picked 2nd overall and James 4th) and backs drafted at the tail end of the first. As long as the Colts keep winning, they won’t have a chance at the Adrian Petersons of the world and will instead have to field backs that are somewhat less complete or outstanding. It is ColtPlay’s assertion that Addai can only truly be effective if he’s part of a committee.
b) And he’s only good if he’s healthy. Addai’s 2008 was atrocious in a large part because he was nicked up. For many players, I’d consider that an aberration, but I’m always observant of injuries to backs because it often affects them more than other players, and Addai has a long history of durability problems. Although he’s only missed five of 48 possible regular-season games as a pro, he never really won the halfback job at LSU because he couldn’t be relied upon to be healthy enough to play.
38 Dominic Rhodes Numbers: 5090/209/4.47pd in 01 2008 Statistics: 152-538-6 rushing, 45-302-3 receiving 2008 preseason statistics: 15 games played/0 games started (2-2), 13-39-0 rushing
I’ve never been a big Rhodes guy. Actually, that’s not entirely true. When he showed up as an undrafted rook out of Nowhere U and won the No. 2 job behind Edgerrin James in 2001, I was really, really impressed. But then Edge tore his ACL and Rhodes stepped in as the starter. Yeah, he gained 1,104 yards and the fans went wild for him, but the Colts lost most of those games when they would have won most of them if Edge was still in there. He wasn’t James. That’s not surprising; very few Edgerrin James have walked this Earth. I know Rhodes has a lot of fans out there, but face it, Rhodes isn’t a No. 1 back. And then he tore his own ACL. And like all backs who do that, he wasn’t the same afterwards. Look at his yards per carry through his career: 4.74, 4.24, 4.79, ACL tear, 2.95, 3.43, signs with Oakland, 4.03, goes back to Indy, 3.54.
And these days, Rhodes plays hard and draws a lot of praise. People — the press, fans, Polian himself — rave about his courage, his discipline, his selflessness; but they neglect to mention that he averages about a yard per carry less than he should and has almost no breakaway potential. I understand. I like a guy who plays hard. And I know that a lot of that love comes from Rhodes’ performance in Super Bowl XVI. He really did step up in that game, although a big part of that was because Addai disappeared.
And now he’s an unrestricted free agent. He’s a 30-year-old back with lots of miles on his legs and an ACL tear in his past. He’s not likely to get a ton of bids for his services. The Colts will invite him back — mostly out of gratitude — but I really don’t think he’s the back you want to hitch your wagon to.
32 Mike Hart Numbers: 5087/206/4.69c in 08 2008 Statistics: 2-9-0 rushing, 1-18-0 receiving, 1/0 fumble/lost 2008 preseason statistics: 5 games played/0 games started, 17-95-0 rushing, 7-75-0 receiving, 1 special-teams tackle
I’ll admit I didn’t want the Colts to draft Hart. Yeah, I knew he was an incredible guy who was a one-man gang in college. But I watched him run at the combine and I immediately thought he was a great college player who just didn’t have what it takes to be an NFL back. And I remembered how hard Michigan rode him and wondered what he’d have left. When they did pick him, I kind of thought Bill Polian must know something; but my hopes were dashed when Polian himself compared Hart to James Mungro — a great guy who scared nobody as a back.
But then I watched Hart in preseason. He was magic. Really. Okay, it was generally against guys who are working at Wal-Mart now, but he looked like the second coming of Emmitt Smith out there. He was hard to find and harder to bring down. He ran nice routes, caught the ball and picked up blitzes. It wasn’t enough to make me think he’d be a threat to start or anything, but he really looked like he could be a nice change-of-pace back who could pick up tough yards, catch a few passes and pick up a few blitzes.
And it looked like that would happen once the season started. But then he tore his ACL. I’m sure he’ll work hard to rehab, but we all know backs are different after the ol’ ACL goes. But it brings up a sort of a dilemma — will Hart be robbed of what little speed he had and be rendered useless, or will he be a wily back that never relied on speed and simply take over where he left off?
Nobody knows for sure. And don’t pretend you do. The best-case scenario is that he is what they expected him to be before he was hurt — and that was a backup.
35 Chad Simpson Numbers: 5085/216/4.40c in 08 2008 Statistics: 15-45-1 rushing, 3-30-0 receiving, 15-344-0 kick returns, 2 special-teams tackles, 1/0 fumbles/lost 2008 preseason statistics: 5 games played/0 games started, 16-49-0 rushing, 3-22-0 receiving, 1-6-0 kick return, 1 tackle, 1 special-teams tackle
Here’s what ColtPlay said about Simpson when the Colts signed him as an undrafted free agent last spring:
Speed, power, wiggle, a nose for the end zone and a lightning-quick first step — what more could you want? Well, vision, route running, blocking skills and soft hands — all of which Simpson lacks.
Wow, kinds feels good to be right. As a rookie, Simpson showed all of those traits — both good and bad. The kid is a talent, but I don’t think he’ll ever be a big-time NFL back. Still, he could be a guy who can step in and do a decent job if he’s not exposed too much, especially if he’s running wild in the fourth quarter while tired defenses are trying to contain him.
Perhaps more important is his ability as a return man. He got a trial last year and was tentative at first, but seemed to get the hang of it as things went along. I expect he’ll be given a chance to win the primary return job outright this summer, but he won’t be the favorite.
30 Clifton Dawson Numbers: 5095/214/4.54pd in 07 2008 Statistics: 2 games played/0 games started 2008 preseason statistics: 5 games played/0 games started, 7-20-0 rushing, 1-6-0 receiving
If you saw Dawson play at Harvard, you’d probably think he was on his way to a long NFL career. He just ran all over the Ivy League, looking like a man among boys. In his 39 starts, he ran 958-4,841-60 and caught 80-759-4 in stylish fashion. The Colts signed him after the 2007 draft, and things changed for him a little. Facing NFL players instead of Ivy Leaguers, he could run over or away from them any more. He did everything the right way, but just didn’t seem quite quick enough to make an impact. He was a final cut. The Bengals grabbed him and he dressed for a couple of games before they sent him packing. The Colts signed him again, and he played a little after injuries hit (hmmm), rushing 30-64-1 and catching two passes for 15 yards. He was brought back for the 2008 camp and again was a final cut. They signed him again when injuries struck again, but after a couple of games of running around on special teams, he suffered a concussion and wound up on injured reserve.
I’m pretty sure Dawson will be asked to come back to Colts camp for 2009. And I’m pretty sure he’ll get cut. But I wouldn’t feel too bad for him. He’s a Harvard grad.
27 Lance Ball Numbers: 5091/220/4.56pd in 08 2008 Statistics: 13-83-0 rushing, 1-5-0 receiving, 1/0 fumbles/lost 2008 preseason statistics: 4 games played/0 games started, 31-137-2 rushing, 8-43-0 receiving, 1/1 fumbles/lost, 1 fumble recovery
Finally, a little good news — one Colts back did much better than expected last season. Ball never really took hold of the starting job at Maryland because of the presence of similarly sized, similarly skilled Keon Lattimore, but did manage to run for 549-2,487-26 in college. Signed as an undrafted free agent by the Rams, he had a very good camp and preseason with them, but couldn’t get a spot in their crowded backfield and was waived, then signed to the practice squad. When injuries forced a practice squad shuffle, the Rams cut him again and the Colts picked him up. He hung on their practice squad until he was activated for the final regular season game.
In a game that primarily pit backups against backups, Ball ran looked like the best back on the field. He ran with authority, followed his blockers and shook off would-be tacklers. He did drop the ball just as he was crossing the goal line for what would have been his first NFL regular-season touchdown, and he refreshingly blamed it on opening-night jitters.
Of course, one game against the Titans’ scrubs doesn’t say that much about a back’s NFL potential, but I do remember Ball from college and even high school in Teaneck, New Jersey (I was working for the sports section of a nearby paper at the time). As a runner, he’s strong and very quick in small spaces. He makes himself small and is hard to bring down once he has a head of steam. In college, he was just fast enough to be effective outside, but might not have quite enough to do that in the pros. Ball showed he was a decent receiver with soft hands, but he needs to run better routes and be more aware of the passing game’s nuances before he can contribute that much in the NFL. He demonstrated better run-blocking skills than pass-blocking moves, but has the potential to improve in that area.
Sounds good, right? Well, don’t think Ball is the answer to the team’s running woes, or even a shoo-in to make the team. Right now, he’s a pretty good inside runner with the potential to contribute as a pass-catcher and blocker. With a good camp (and no fumbles), he could make the team as an extra back or a short-yardage specialist.
Note: This is the first time I have mentioned Davenport without pointing out his lack of wisdom as regards where he poops.
How this affects the draft and free agency
Okay, let’s see what the Colts have:
Addai: Almost good enough to be a featured back, but needs a strong supporting cast and someone who can step in when necessary
Rhodes: A career No. 2 who’s approaching the end of his career
Hart: A guy who could be a decent No. 2 back if he rebounds from a torn ACL
Simpson: A maybe kick returner who could take a couple of snaps at runningback
Dawson: A CFL player on an NFL team
Ball: A between-the-tackles bowling ball who could stick if all goes well for him
Hey, I realize what the facts are. The Colts have invested a first-round pick in Addai and signed him to a five-year contract. He’s here for a while. And if the Colts grab a young back in the draft, it won’t be to replace him, but to augment him — at least in the short term.
There’s an outside chance the Colts will draft a back in the first round, but you can forget all those mocks that have Knowshon Moreno or Beanie Wells sliding to (or even past!) the Colts’ pick at No. 27. Moreno is a top-10 pick (top 15 at the worst) and Wells will be gone by 27 too.
They could grab Pitt’s LeSean McCoy. Or they could wait until the second and select a guy like Iowa's Shonn Greene, UConn’s Donald Brown, North Carolina State’s Andre Brown or Clemson’s James Davis. None of these guys is a truly complete back who could send Addai to the bench from Day 1, although McCoy could evolve into an outstanding back given time.
Of course, there is a chance that the Colts’ brass will decide that Addai will hold together, Rhodes has yet another year in his tired old legs and Mike Hart will bounce right back. That could happen; but I really, really hope not.
Running backs drafted since Polian took over
2008 Sixth Mike Hart
2006 First Joseph Addai
2005 Seventh Anthony Davis
2002 Sixth Brian Allen
1999 First Edgerrin James
Monday, February 2, 2009
Winners and Losers
Since it's already caused a little controversy, let's take a look at the won-loss records for each Colt starter:
Quarterback
Peyton Manning 12-4
Runningback
Joseph Addai 10-2, Dominic Rhodes 2-2
Wide Receiver
Reggie Wayne 12-4, Marvin Harrison 11-4, Anthony Gonzalez 2-0
Tight End
Dallas Clark 11-4, Tom Santi 1-0
H-Back
Gijon Robinson 11-3, Tom Santi 0-1
• In one game, Robinson was listed as a second tight end, but it was really an H-Back spot
Left Tackle
Tony Ugoh 10-2, Charlie Johnson 2-2
Left Guard
Charlie Johnson 10-2, Jamey Richard 2-1, Steve Justice 0-1
Center
Jeff Saturday 9-3, Jamey Richard 3-1
Right Guard
Mike Pollak 11-2, Daniel Federkiel 1-2
Right Tackle
Ryan Diem 12-4
Right Defensive End
Dwight Freeney 10-4, Josh Thomas 2-0
Right Defensive Tackle
Keyunta Dawson 6-3, Eric Foster 3-0, Antonio Johnson 2-0, Josh Thomas 1-0, Ed Johnson 0-1
• Ed Johnson is no longer with the team
Left Defensive Tackle
Eric Foster 6-2, Keyunta Dawson 4-1, Antonio Johnson 2-0, Raheem Brock 0-1
Left Defensive End
Raheem Brock 12-2, Robert Mathis 0-2
Weakside Linebacker
Freddy Keiaho 10-4, Tyjuan Hagler 2-0
Middle Linebacker
Gary Brackett 8-4 Buster Davis 3-0
Strongside Linebacker
Clint Session 11-4
Right Cornerback
Tim Jennings 7-0, Marlin Jackson 3-4, Keiwan Ratliff 2-0
Left Cornerback
Kelvin Hayden 8-2, Tim Jennings 3-2, Keiwan Ratliff 1-0
Nickelback
Melvin Bullitt 1-0, Keiwan Ratliff 1-0
Strong Safety
Melvin Bullitt 6-2, Bob Sanders 4-1, Antoine Bethea 1-0, Matt Giordano 1-0, Tyjuan Hagler 0-1
• Hagler was listed as an extra linebacker, but he looked like a strong safety to me
Free Safety
Antoine Bethea 11-4, Bob Sanders 1-0
Note: Did you expect this would be about the Steelers and Cardinals?
Quarterback
Peyton Manning 12-4
Runningback
Joseph Addai 10-2, Dominic Rhodes 2-2
Wide Receiver
Reggie Wayne 12-4, Marvin Harrison 11-4, Anthony Gonzalez 2-0
Tight End
Dallas Clark 11-4, Tom Santi 1-0
H-Back
Gijon Robinson 11-3, Tom Santi 0-1
• In one game, Robinson was listed as a second tight end, but it was really an H-Back spot
Left Tackle
Tony Ugoh 10-2, Charlie Johnson 2-2
Left Guard
Charlie Johnson 10-2, Jamey Richard 2-1, Steve Justice 0-1
Center
Jeff Saturday 9-3, Jamey Richard 3-1
Right Guard
Mike Pollak 11-2, Daniel Federkiel 1-2
Right Tackle
Ryan Diem 12-4
Right Defensive End
Dwight Freeney 10-4, Josh Thomas 2-0
Right Defensive Tackle
Keyunta Dawson 6-3, Eric Foster 3-0, Antonio Johnson 2-0, Josh Thomas 1-0, Ed Johnson 0-1
• Ed Johnson is no longer with the team
Left Defensive Tackle
Eric Foster 6-2, Keyunta Dawson 4-1, Antonio Johnson 2-0, Raheem Brock 0-1
Left Defensive End
Raheem Brock 12-2, Robert Mathis 0-2
Weakside Linebacker
Freddy Keiaho 10-4, Tyjuan Hagler 2-0
Middle Linebacker
Gary Brackett 8-4 Buster Davis 3-0
Strongside Linebacker
Clint Session 11-4
Right Cornerback
Tim Jennings 7-0, Marlin Jackson 3-4, Keiwan Ratliff 2-0
Left Cornerback
Kelvin Hayden 8-2, Tim Jennings 3-2, Keiwan Ratliff 1-0
Nickelback
Melvin Bullitt 1-0, Keiwan Ratliff 1-0
Strong Safety
Melvin Bullitt 6-2, Bob Sanders 4-1, Antoine Bethea 1-0, Matt Giordano 1-0, Tyjuan Hagler 0-1
• Hagler was listed as an extra linebacker, but he looked like a strong safety to me
Free Safety
Antoine Bethea 11-4, Bob Sanders 1-0
Note: Did you expect this would be about the Steelers and Cardinals?
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)