Sorry not to update for so long, but at least there’s plenty to talk about.
Injuries
• Peyton Manning: Yep, the ol’ bursa sac’s actin’ up. You know what that is? It’s a little bag of goo that cushions the shock of action at a particular joint. And this particular joint is in Manning’s knee. If his knee hurts, he can’t play well. His knee wasn’t responding to treatment so he had surgery and is said to be out 4-6 weeks. That would put him in line to be just about iffy for the season opener.
But I think he’ll be back earlier. The guy is a conditioning maniac and is as tough as nails. It’s been widely reported that Manning has taken 9,778 of 10,098 possible snaps (96.83 percent) since he became a Colt. But that’s missing the point. In fact, all but one of those missed snaps was missed intentionally — so that backup Jim Sorgi could get some live action.
In fact, Manning has missed a total of one snap since turning pro — and that was for a broken jaw. So, he’s actually played 9,778 of 9,779 snaps (99.98977 percent) snaps he was supposed to.
Yeah he’s getting older and his joints aren’t what they used to be, but through pure force of will, he’ll be ready when the games get real in September.
• Marvin Harrison: His knee is checking out, but I think his decline has started and will be sharp. He’s still a top receiver, but will definitely enter the season playing second fiddle to Reggie Wayne and may potential be playing third with the emergence of Anthony Gonzalez and maybe even fourth if Dallas Clark keeps playing like he has been. All reports out of training camp say he’s the same ol’ Marvin, but I would expect that unless he was on crutches. At any rate, the team is bringing him along slowly in the hopes of squeezing another big season or two out of his skinny, battered and headed-to-Canton body.
• Tyjuan Hagler: I feel bad for Tyjuan. This is his walk year and I don’t even think his mother believes the Colts have any interest in re-signing him. While his absence helps the team in that they will be able to pick his successor from Clint Session, Phillip Wheeler or Victor Worsley, it’s bad for him. His next contract depends on how well he plays this year. It would definitely be in his best interest to get in quickly and reclaim his starting spot before he’s usurped. You don’t want to go looking for a contract after a year on the bench. This competition may be even more interesting than first thought. On the first day of camp, Session was absent for “personal reasons” and Wheeler injured his knee. Ramon Guzman played a few snaps there early in camp, but I think that was by default — his future is as a pure pass-rusher.
• Everyone else: I’m not sure Dwight Freeney will ever be what he was before, but he’ll always be awesome. Bob Sanders is always in and out of the shop because, well, humans aren’t actually supposed to be built the way he is. Ryan Lilja will be fine. The others don’t bother me.
Roster moves
• The cuts: With Manning unavailable for preseason, the Colts had to get serious about the third-string quarterback position. That meant that Josh Betts and Adam Trafalis had to go. I’m not saying they don’t have talent, just that they weren’t ready for prime time.
Instead, the Colts signed a couple of guys who not only have a bit of NFL experience, but also far better college resumés. The interesting thing, though, is that they’re both — how do I put this delicately? — tubby.
Perhaps the more impressive of them is Jared Lorenzen (6032, 288, 5.28 in 2004/2007 stats: 8-4-28-0-1 passing, 1-2-0 rushing) — better known as Quarter(got)back, the Hefty Lefty, the Pillsbury Throwboy, The Abominable Throwman, J.Load, Round Mound of Touchdown, BBQ (Big Beautiful Quarterback), Battleship Lorenzen, Butterball, Lord Of The Ring-Dings and He Ate Me.
Despite the flab, this kid is awesomely talented. If you watch video of him at Kentucky, you can see exactly how gifted he is. He can make every throw, read defenses well and stands up against the rush.
But he is fat. If the lure of NFL stardom isn’t enough to make him drop the pounds, what would be? What kind of dedication is that? While he has some athletic ability, the fact is that his big ol’ belly makes him a sitting duck in the pocket, limits his mobility and prevents him from being a rushing threat.
Many Colts fans are familiar with Quinn Gray (6020, 232, 4.77 in 2002/2007 stats: 144-80-986-10-5 passing, 19-57-0 rushing) because he played with the Jacksonville Jaguars and then signed with the Houston Texans. And, unlike Lorenzen, Gray has had an impact on the NFL, recording a 2-2 record as a starter.
He’s similar to Lorenzen — a fat, sitting duck with a live arm. He may have been 232 with a 4.77 coming out of college in 2002, but he’s more like 255-260 now and his forty time is likely to have ballooned as much as his belly.
But, unlike Lorenzen, he has a reputation as being not all that smart. The scuttlebutt is that the Texans cut him because he couldn’t master their playbook. I’m sorry, the Texans’ playbook? If André Johnson is covered, throw it to the tight end — that’s their playbook. If he can’t understand that, he’ll have no chance in Indy.
Still, that is just a rumor. (1) He certainly had no problem picking up the Jaguars’ offense despite having come from Florida A&M. And he may have been cut by the Texans simply because they already have two fine signal-callers and didn’t want to pay Gray $645,000 just to walk around with a uniform and baseball cap on. (2)
The training camp competition between these two should be fascinating. The Colts’ offense is so complex it’s unlikely either would leapfrog Sorgi for the No. 2 position in such a short time. But in the unlikely-but-possible event that Sorgi enters the regular season as No. 1, the Colts will definitely need a competent No. 2. The other player is likely to be cut.
So here we have two very similar, recently cut quarterbacks fighting for their livelihoods. I see Gray having a slight edge at this point, though Lorenzen has a slightly better upside. Every snap these guys take will be under a collection of microscopes and, unless one falls on his face, the decision will be excruciating.
As for the other cuts, well, Rudy Burgess was brought in to fight for the return specialist job. I guess he didn’t wow them enough to continue. And while guard Mike Elgin survived the influx of interior linemen talent provided by the draft, he was made superfluous by the signing of ex-Falcon Doug Datish, who provides the same skills in a bigger, more experienced package.
Other:
• I’m as on edge as anyone when it comes to the Quinn Pitcock situation. I find it hard to believe (3) that a lineman noted for his toughness, leadership and non-stop motor would lose interest in football. It makes even less sense when you factor in that he’s penciled in to be a major contributor on a great team and he’s being paid $515,500 to do it. (4) Although my predictions have been way off as late, I’m going to go out on a limb once again and opine that Pitcock will be back in camp soon.
• Raheem Brock is playing a lot at end in camp. That’s good. It’ll give Robert Mathis and Freeney downs off (5) to stay fresh. And Brock is a better run-stopper than either. In fact, he always reminded me of a 3-4 end — a guy who, in the 4-3 would be better inside on passing downs and outside on running downs. Don’t discount the emergence of Ed Johnson for the switch. It also reinforces my belief they expect something from Pitcock. (6)
• Apparently, Dan Federkeil is getting some snaps at guard. I think that’s more of a case of him getting live snaps against good players than it is about him competing for a spot inside. They like his potential as a tackle, but 6’7 guards are a rarity for a reason.
• While most fans have been predicting huge things from Roy Hall and big things from Devin Aromashodu, I think either may be looking up the depth chart at Pierre Garcon before too long. He’s a natural.
Notes:
1. This accusation seems to come up around many black quarterbacks, but thankfully less often than in the past
2. They have Shane Boyd and Erik Brink fighting for that job — and they are way cheaper; I think the Texans signed Gray because they were contemplating trading Sage Rosenfels away, then thought better of it
3. I am, as always, an optimist
4. Not to dis the man, but where else is he gonna make anywhere near that?
5. This is essential at this point in their careers
6. I know, I know, from every report the undrafted rookies are looking like all-pros in camp; but I’ll believe it when I see it for real — they said the same things about Brandon Hicks and a million other guys
Monday, July 28, 2008
Friday, July 4, 2008
An addendum
If you’re not bored of Colts cornerbacks yet, you will be if you read this.
You can’t really compare corners without including penalties. Generally, the Colts’ top three were a fairly disciplined group with few penalties among them. Here’s how it broke down:
Marlin Jackson (3-40): He had one 25-yarder for pass interference against the Titans’ Biren Ealy (1), one 15-yarder for unnecessary roughness and one for defensive offside, which was declined.
Kelvin Hayden (2-17): Really, he only had one for seven on pass interference because his other penalty — for 10 yards — was for offensive holding when he was blocking on a punt return. This comparison is for cornerback play after all.
Tim Jennings (2-10): Two five-yarders, one for pass interference and the other for holding.
Interesting, the worst penalty on a corner was a 37-yarder pass interference call on Michael Coe. It wasn’t only the worst in terms of length, but in needlessness (2). No way Derrick Mason was ever gonna catch that ball. (3) Part of the learning process, I guess.
Conclusion/eyeball test: Penalties don’t appear to be much of a problem for any of the Colts’ top three corners.
Notes:
1. Who he? A tall undrafted free agent who impressed as the season went along and became a fairly large part of the Titans’ plans. Still, no Randy Moss he.
2. Is that a word? You know what I mean.
3. Boller to Mason … 37 yards … one pass … all in the air … does not compute.
You can’t really compare corners without including penalties. Generally, the Colts’ top three were a fairly disciplined group with few penalties among them. Here’s how it broke down:
Marlin Jackson (3-40): He had one 25-yarder for pass interference against the Titans’ Biren Ealy (1), one 15-yarder for unnecessary roughness and one for defensive offside, which was declined.
Kelvin Hayden (2-17): Really, he only had one for seven on pass interference because his other penalty — for 10 yards — was for offensive holding when he was blocking on a punt return. This comparison is for cornerback play after all.
Tim Jennings (2-10): Two five-yarders, one for pass interference and the other for holding.
Interesting, the worst penalty on a corner was a 37-yarder pass interference call on Michael Coe. It wasn’t only the worst in terms of length, but in needlessness (2). No way Derrick Mason was ever gonna catch that ball. (3) Part of the learning process, I guess.
Conclusion/eyeball test: Penalties don’t appear to be much of a problem for any of the Colts’ top three corners.
Notes:
1. Who he? A tall undrafted free agent who impressed as the season went along and became a fairly large part of the Titans’ plans. Still, no Randy Moss he.
2. Is that a word? You know what I mean.
3. Boller to Mason … 37 yards … one pass … all in the air … does not compute.
Thursday, July 3, 2008
A quick look at the corners
Cornerbacks are strange creatures. You usually only hear about them when they make an interception or they get burned. Since the Colts’ corners rarely pick off any passes (the top three guys combined for four picks last year), the usually only get mentioned when things go bad.
Each of the Colts’ top three corners has his detractors, but — the dearth of interceptions notwithstanding — they generally get the job done. Here’s Coltplay’s look at how the three stack up against one another.
1) Pass coverage: Using stats provided by ESPN, we can compare how well each corner did when thrown at in 2007. The numbers are: times thrown at-completions allowed-yards allowed (completion percentage allowed/yards allowed per time thrown at).
Overall
Marlin Jackson 38-25-271 (65.79/7.13)
Kelvin Hayden 67-44-477 (65.67/7.12)
Tim Jennings 33-19-207 (57.58/6.27)
Short (ie. the target was 10 yards or less past the line of scrimmage)
Marlin Jackson 24-19-163 (79.17/6.79)
Kelvin Hayden 46-33-246 (71.74/5.35)
Tim Jennings 19-13-83 (68.42/4.37)
Medium (11-20 yards)
Marlin Jackson 12-5-83 (41.67/6.92)
Kelvin Hayden 14-8-107 (57.14/7.64)
Tim Jennings 11-5-91 (45.45/8.27)
Long (21-30 yards)
Marlin Jackson 2-1-25 (50.00/12.50)
Kelvin Hayden 4-1-35 (25.00/8.75)
Tim Jennings 1-0-0 (00.00/00.00)
Bomb (more than 30 yards)
Marlin Jackson 0-0-0 (00.00/00.00)
Kelvin Hayden 3-2-89 (66.67/29.67)
Tim Jennings 2-1-33 (50.00/16.50)
Interesting numbers when you consider the positions. Jackson normally covers the flanker, Hayden the split end and Jennings the slot guy. While flankers are virtually always better players than split ends, split ends aren’t always better than slot guys — would you rather cover Wes Welker or Donté Stallworth? Andre Davis or Kevin Walter? (1) — so I would consider Jackson’s job in coverage the most difficult by some margin, with Hayden’s only slightly harder than Jennings if it’s even any harder at all.
That said, Jackson and Hayden had remarkably similar overall coverage averages — completion percentages only 0.22 percent apart, yards per attempt just 0.013 yards (less than half an inch) different.
Interestingly, Hayden put up far better numbers short, while Jackson, though slower, was better long.
I attribute that discrepancy to the fact that Jackson (covering the Randy Mosses of the world) left a bigger cushion than Hayden. Hayden, conversely, played closer, which left him a bit more vulnerable to deep patterns.
Jennings showed better overall numbers than either outside guy, especially short. That’s actually a huge surprise to me because slot corners usually play against the quickest, hardest-to-cover-in-a-short-zone guys who make their bread and butter on short routes hoping to break free. Jennings’ numbers then are a testament to exactly how fast (4.32 forty as compared to Hayden’s 4.48 and Jackson’s 4.52) and quick (1.48 ten as compared to Hayden and Jackson who both ran 1.56) he really is.
Of course, part of that is also the fact that he leaves the smallest cushion of them all. Consequently, Jennings’ numbers fall somewhere in between Jackson’s and Hayden’s when it comes to longer routes.
Perhaps even more tellingly than the averages, is the number of times each player was targeted by opposing passers. Despite facing the opposing team’s best receiver most often, Jackson only saw 38 passes thrown his way all season. Compare that to Hayden, who was targeted 67 times. That’s 76.32 percent more often — no accident. In fact, opposing quarterbacks only threw at Jackson five times more often than they did Jennings (33), who was on the field much less often. When it came to passes 21 or more yards downfield, Jackson saw two, Jennings saw three and Hayden saw seven. When you bring it up to more than 30 yards, Hayden was tested three times, Jennings twice and Jackson not at all.
NFL quarterbacks were so unwilling to test Jackson that they would throw to their second- or third-best receivers (2) almost twice as often. Although their overall stats are similar, NFL quarterbacks were almost twice as likely to take their chances against Hayden than they were against Jackson. And when you factor in how often the Colts saw three-wide sets, they’d still much rather test Hayden than Jennings. I’m no expert, but NFL quarterbacks and offensive co-ordinators actually are.
Eyeball test: From what I’ve seen, Jackson hasn’t been tested much, while teams throw willy-nilly at Hayden. Hayden holds up, but you gotta respect how much fear Jackson instills. Jennings does a great job shutting down slots, but doesn’t really scare any quarterbacks into throwing away from him. Except when he is totally outmuscled, I'd say Jennings is the best of the trio in man coverage, but his understanding of zones isn't quite up to where the other guys' are.
2) Hands: Hayden is a former wide receiver. Usually when someone is an ex-wide receiver, it’s because he didn’t have the hands for the position. That’s true of Hayden — I’d hate to see him play on offense — but he still has better hands than the other guys. Although the sample is small, it’s significant that Hayden got his hands on 15 passes (one out of every 4.47 he faced), Jennings on seven (4.71) and Jackson on five (7.60). And, he came down with three picks (one out of every 5.00 passes he got his hands on), Jackson had one (6.00) and Jennings was shut out.
It would appear that Hayden has so-so hands, but he looks like Welker compared to the other two.
Eyeball test: Hayden can catch — and will. Jackson has Roberto Duran’s hands of stone and Jennings hasn’t really seen enough exposure. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets the odd pick or two in the future. (3)
3) Run support/blitzing: All three of the Colts’ top corners have a reputation for supporting the run. But this one isn’t even close. Jackson had 76 tackles (2.00 for every pass he faced), while Hayden had 85 (1.27) and Jennings 21 (0.63). If you include assists, the numbers are even more profound (2.84 for Jackson, 1.75 for Hayden and 0.75 for Jennings).
Since opponents didn’t run right against the Colts significantly more often than they did left, it indicates that Jackson really stepped up in that department. Jennings’ far lower numbers are a combination of two things — he’s not on the field when most runs took place and he’s very tiny (185 pounds to 197 for Hayden and 198 for Jackson).
All are hard hitters — nobody doubts that. Back it up? Jackson and Jennings each forced a fumble, Hayden forced two. Corners don’t usually do that very often.
When it comes to blitzing, there is no comparison. Jackson had half a sack, three quarterback pressures and three stuffs, while Hayden and Jennings had just a stuff apiece.
Eyeball test: Okay, Jackson’s not exactly Bob Sanders, but he’s as close as you’ll see in a corner — dude is simply vicious, a total enforcer against the run. Jennings is more willing in run support and a better tackler technically than Hayden, but Hayden’s size and strength bring him up to even.
4) Conclusion: Nobody will even confuse him with Deion Sanders, but Jackson is a bona fide NFL No. 1 corner. He faces some of the best athletes in the world and consistently shuts them down, particularly on long routes. He has a big cushion, the safety help the Cover-2 defense is designed to provide and a vicious pass rush (4) helping him, but he’s definitely worth the price of admission when it comes to pass coverage.
His real value — again, something that is especially prized in Indy — is his skills as a tackler and blitzer. Compared to most NFL corners, Jackson looks like vintage John Lynch. He backs down from nothing, does the little things right and packs a tremendous wallop.
The backside of that is that he is as likely to get a pick as one of the cheerleaders.
Hayden gets similar numbers in coverage mainly because he’s covering lesser opponents. Still, he gets picked on and picked on and still comes up with impressive production. He is as solid a No. 2 as Jackson is a No. 1. And when it comes to the other stuff, he’s basically the opposite of Jackson. He’s not another linebacker on running plays, but at least his hands aren’t made of stone (perhaps wood, but at least not stone).
And Jennings? Well, he’s significantly better than either of the other two in coverage statistically — but only because he’s covering slot guys. Dude has all the skills in the world, but he’s about my wife’s height and weighs too little to play the big boys’ games outside. If everyone were the same size, Jennings would be among the best half-dozen corners in the league (certainly well ahead of Jackson and Hayden). But they ain’t. Jennings is awesome in the slot, but would be miscast outside. Look at it this way: Tom Hanks is a great actor, but he would be terrible as the lead in Conan the Barbarian. Covering Terrell Owens is playing Conan, not Forrest Gump.
The Colts actually have a very enviable trey of corners. Jackson is a legit No. 1 in the Cover-2. (5) His coverage skills are fine and his abilities as a run supporter, tackler and blitzer easily offset his liabilities as a ballhawk. Similarly, Hayden is a fine No. 2 and Jennings is excellent in the slot. There is a certain Zen quality to how well they mesh.
The monkey wrench in the plan is that Hayden becomes an unrestricted free agent after the season. With the Colts’ chronic cap woes and their history-proven lack of desire to re-sign all but their most important defensive free agents, they could be looking for a new No. 2. And don’t look at Jennings. Dude is awesome inside, but he’d be overpowered outside. He is staying put.
So, if Hayden is not re-signed, what are the options? The Colts drafted two corners in 2007, Daymieon (now Dante) Hughes and Michael Coe. Both are outside types, nothing like Jennings. Hughes (5101, 190, 4.65) is considered a guy who does everything perfectly, but lacks deep speed. In fact, he’s a lot like Jackson, though slower and with better hands (6) and less wow! against the run. He reminds me of Al Harris, the longtime star corner who everybody called too slow when he came out in 1998.
Coe (6005, 190, 4.53) — a coach’s son — is considered a cerebral player who transcends his physical skills. He’s a lot like former Colt Nick Harper; he seems to lack elite overall skills (7), but gets the job done.
There are other candidates, but they are unlikely to leapfrog Hughes and Coe. TJ Rushing has played a little at defensive back, but is the Colts’ primary return man and may not be able to hold onto that job. Keiwan Ratliff was a second-round pick by the Bengals way back in 2004; but has been cut by them and the Bucs since. While he has good ball skills and NFL starting experience, he’s the slowest of all the team’s corners and has strong moral convictions against not hurting (or even slowing down) anyone with his tackle attempts. That will not endear him to coaches any more than it will fans. Then there’s rookie Brandon Foster. He has some cover skills, good ball skills and the heart of a lion. (8) But at 5075, 182 (9), he makes Jennings look like the Incredible Hulk. While Foster will probably never see a snap outside, he could learn the slotsman’s arts from Jennings and perhaps eventually replace him. He would have to improve by a massive margin to do that.
The way I look at it is that Jackson is great at what he does, Hayden is very good at what he does and Jennings is awesome at what he does. If Hayden were to leave after 2008, Hughes or Coe could probably step in without too much of a beat missed. Either could also step in for Jackson (10), but you would notice a difference, especially in run support. But if either were to step in for Jennings, things could get ugly.
Notes:
1. This depends on what kind of corner you are. Slot guys are generally more explosive that split ends. I’d rather cover a guy who’ll get their catches, but rarely break out, rather than the guy who can leave you on the ground before he’s 40 yards away.
2. Often across the field, since most, if not all, are right-handed
3. Then look out, this kid can motor — he brought back his 10 career picks at Georgia for 194 yards and two scores.
4. Usually; when the Colts pass rush fell off like a well-thrown knuckleball last season, the corners appeared to step it up a little
5. He’s made for the Cover-2 and would find life much harder outside of it.
6. Actually, he has outstanding ball skills. In 51 games at cal, he had 15-344-4 in interceptions and 30 pass deflections.
7. As with Harper, Coe’s lack of elite closing burst scares me a little.
8. A real one, not the Detroit variety.
9. And he looked a lot smaller than that when he way playing.
10. Both Jackson and Jennings are signed through 2009.
Each of the Colts’ top three corners has his detractors, but — the dearth of interceptions notwithstanding — they generally get the job done. Here’s Coltplay’s look at how the three stack up against one another.
1) Pass coverage: Using stats provided by ESPN, we can compare how well each corner did when thrown at in 2007. The numbers are: times thrown at-completions allowed-yards allowed (completion percentage allowed/yards allowed per time thrown at).
Overall
Marlin Jackson 38-25-271 (65.79/7.13)
Kelvin Hayden 67-44-477 (65.67/7.12)
Tim Jennings 33-19-207 (57.58/6.27)
Short (ie. the target was 10 yards or less past the line of scrimmage)
Marlin Jackson 24-19-163 (79.17/6.79)
Kelvin Hayden 46-33-246 (71.74/5.35)
Tim Jennings 19-13-83 (68.42/4.37)
Medium (11-20 yards)
Marlin Jackson 12-5-83 (41.67/6.92)
Kelvin Hayden 14-8-107 (57.14/7.64)
Tim Jennings 11-5-91 (45.45/8.27)
Long (21-30 yards)
Marlin Jackson 2-1-25 (50.00/12.50)
Kelvin Hayden 4-1-35 (25.00/8.75)
Tim Jennings 1-0-0 (00.00/00.00)
Bomb (more than 30 yards)
Marlin Jackson 0-0-0 (00.00/00.00)
Kelvin Hayden 3-2-89 (66.67/29.67)
Tim Jennings 2-1-33 (50.00/16.50)
Interesting numbers when you consider the positions. Jackson normally covers the flanker, Hayden the split end and Jennings the slot guy. While flankers are virtually always better players than split ends, split ends aren’t always better than slot guys — would you rather cover Wes Welker or Donté Stallworth? Andre Davis or Kevin Walter? (1) — so I would consider Jackson’s job in coverage the most difficult by some margin, with Hayden’s only slightly harder than Jennings if it’s even any harder at all.
That said, Jackson and Hayden had remarkably similar overall coverage averages — completion percentages only 0.22 percent apart, yards per attempt just 0.013 yards (less than half an inch) different.
Interestingly, Hayden put up far better numbers short, while Jackson, though slower, was better long.
I attribute that discrepancy to the fact that Jackson (covering the Randy Mosses of the world) left a bigger cushion than Hayden. Hayden, conversely, played closer, which left him a bit more vulnerable to deep patterns.
Jennings showed better overall numbers than either outside guy, especially short. That’s actually a huge surprise to me because slot corners usually play against the quickest, hardest-to-cover-in-a-short-zone guys who make their bread and butter on short routes hoping to break free. Jennings’ numbers then are a testament to exactly how fast (4.32 forty as compared to Hayden’s 4.48 and Jackson’s 4.52) and quick (1.48 ten as compared to Hayden and Jackson who both ran 1.56) he really is.
Of course, part of that is also the fact that he leaves the smallest cushion of them all. Consequently, Jennings’ numbers fall somewhere in between Jackson’s and Hayden’s when it comes to longer routes.
Perhaps even more tellingly than the averages, is the number of times each player was targeted by opposing passers. Despite facing the opposing team’s best receiver most often, Jackson only saw 38 passes thrown his way all season. Compare that to Hayden, who was targeted 67 times. That’s 76.32 percent more often — no accident. In fact, opposing quarterbacks only threw at Jackson five times more often than they did Jennings (33), who was on the field much less often. When it came to passes 21 or more yards downfield, Jackson saw two, Jennings saw three and Hayden saw seven. When you bring it up to more than 30 yards, Hayden was tested three times, Jennings twice and Jackson not at all.
NFL quarterbacks were so unwilling to test Jackson that they would throw to their second- or third-best receivers (2) almost twice as often. Although their overall stats are similar, NFL quarterbacks were almost twice as likely to take their chances against Hayden than they were against Jackson. And when you factor in how often the Colts saw three-wide sets, they’d still much rather test Hayden than Jennings. I’m no expert, but NFL quarterbacks and offensive co-ordinators actually are.
Eyeball test: From what I’ve seen, Jackson hasn’t been tested much, while teams throw willy-nilly at Hayden. Hayden holds up, but you gotta respect how much fear Jackson instills. Jennings does a great job shutting down slots, but doesn’t really scare any quarterbacks into throwing away from him. Except when he is totally outmuscled, I'd say Jennings is the best of the trio in man coverage, but his understanding of zones isn't quite up to where the other guys' are.
2) Hands: Hayden is a former wide receiver. Usually when someone is an ex-wide receiver, it’s because he didn’t have the hands for the position. That’s true of Hayden — I’d hate to see him play on offense — but he still has better hands than the other guys. Although the sample is small, it’s significant that Hayden got his hands on 15 passes (one out of every 4.47 he faced), Jennings on seven (4.71) and Jackson on five (7.60). And, he came down with three picks (one out of every 5.00 passes he got his hands on), Jackson had one (6.00) and Jennings was shut out.
It would appear that Hayden has so-so hands, but he looks like Welker compared to the other two.
Eyeball test: Hayden can catch — and will. Jackson has Roberto Duran’s hands of stone and Jennings hasn’t really seen enough exposure. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets the odd pick or two in the future. (3)
3) Run support/blitzing: All three of the Colts’ top corners have a reputation for supporting the run. But this one isn’t even close. Jackson had 76 tackles (2.00 for every pass he faced), while Hayden had 85 (1.27) and Jennings 21 (0.63). If you include assists, the numbers are even more profound (2.84 for Jackson, 1.75 for Hayden and 0.75 for Jennings).
Since opponents didn’t run right against the Colts significantly more often than they did left, it indicates that Jackson really stepped up in that department. Jennings’ far lower numbers are a combination of two things — he’s not on the field when most runs took place and he’s very tiny (185 pounds to 197 for Hayden and 198 for Jackson).
All are hard hitters — nobody doubts that. Back it up? Jackson and Jennings each forced a fumble, Hayden forced two. Corners don’t usually do that very often.
When it comes to blitzing, there is no comparison. Jackson had half a sack, three quarterback pressures and three stuffs, while Hayden and Jennings had just a stuff apiece.
Eyeball test: Okay, Jackson’s not exactly Bob Sanders, but he’s as close as you’ll see in a corner — dude is simply vicious, a total enforcer against the run. Jennings is more willing in run support and a better tackler technically than Hayden, but Hayden’s size and strength bring him up to even.
4) Conclusion: Nobody will even confuse him with Deion Sanders, but Jackson is a bona fide NFL No. 1 corner. He faces some of the best athletes in the world and consistently shuts them down, particularly on long routes. He has a big cushion, the safety help the Cover-2 defense is designed to provide and a vicious pass rush (4) helping him, but he’s definitely worth the price of admission when it comes to pass coverage.
His real value — again, something that is especially prized in Indy — is his skills as a tackler and blitzer. Compared to most NFL corners, Jackson looks like vintage John Lynch. He backs down from nothing, does the little things right and packs a tremendous wallop.
The backside of that is that he is as likely to get a pick as one of the cheerleaders.
Hayden gets similar numbers in coverage mainly because he’s covering lesser opponents. Still, he gets picked on and picked on and still comes up with impressive production. He is as solid a No. 2 as Jackson is a No. 1. And when it comes to the other stuff, he’s basically the opposite of Jackson. He’s not another linebacker on running plays, but at least his hands aren’t made of stone (perhaps wood, but at least not stone).
And Jennings? Well, he’s significantly better than either of the other two in coverage statistically — but only because he’s covering slot guys. Dude has all the skills in the world, but he’s about my wife’s height and weighs too little to play the big boys’ games outside. If everyone were the same size, Jennings would be among the best half-dozen corners in the league (certainly well ahead of Jackson and Hayden). But they ain’t. Jennings is awesome in the slot, but would be miscast outside. Look at it this way: Tom Hanks is a great actor, but he would be terrible as the lead in Conan the Barbarian. Covering Terrell Owens is playing Conan, not Forrest Gump.
The Colts actually have a very enviable trey of corners. Jackson is a legit No. 1 in the Cover-2. (5) His coverage skills are fine and his abilities as a run supporter, tackler and blitzer easily offset his liabilities as a ballhawk. Similarly, Hayden is a fine No. 2 and Jennings is excellent in the slot. There is a certain Zen quality to how well they mesh.
The monkey wrench in the plan is that Hayden becomes an unrestricted free agent after the season. With the Colts’ chronic cap woes and their history-proven lack of desire to re-sign all but their most important defensive free agents, they could be looking for a new No. 2. And don’t look at Jennings. Dude is awesome inside, but he’d be overpowered outside. He is staying put.
So, if Hayden is not re-signed, what are the options? The Colts drafted two corners in 2007, Daymieon (now Dante) Hughes and Michael Coe. Both are outside types, nothing like Jennings. Hughes (5101, 190, 4.65) is considered a guy who does everything perfectly, but lacks deep speed. In fact, he’s a lot like Jackson, though slower and with better hands (6) and less wow! against the run. He reminds me of Al Harris, the longtime star corner who everybody called too slow when he came out in 1998.
Coe (6005, 190, 4.53) — a coach’s son — is considered a cerebral player who transcends his physical skills. He’s a lot like former Colt Nick Harper; he seems to lack elite overall skills (7), but gets the job done.
There are other candidates, but they are unlikely to leapfrog Hughes and Coe. TJ Rushing has played a little at defensive back, but is the Colts’ primary return man and may not be able to hold onto that job. Keiwan Ratliff was a second-round pick by the Bengals way back in 2004; but has been cut by them and the Bucs since. While he has good ball skills and NFL starting experience, he’s the slowest of all the team’s corners and has strong moral convictions against not hurting (or even slowing down) anyone with his tackle attempts. That will not endear him to coaches any more than it will fans. Then there’s rookie Brandon Foster. He has some cover skills, good ball skills and the heart of a lion. (8) But at 5075, 182 (9), he makes Jennings look like the Incredible Hulk. While Foster will probably never see a snap outside, he could learn the slotsman’s arts from Jennings and perhaps eventually replace him. He would have to improve by a massive margin to do that.
The way I look at it is that Jackson is great at what he does, Hayden is very good at what he does and Jennings is awesome at what he does. If Hayden were to leave after 2008, Hughes or Coe could probably step in without too much of a beat missed. Either could also step in for Jackson (10), but you would notice a difference, especially in run support. But if either were to step in for Jennings, things could get ugly.
Notes:
1. This depends on what kind of corner you are. Slot guys are generally more explosive that split ends. I’d rather cover a guy who’ll get their catches, but rarely break out, rather than the guy who can leave you on the ground before he’s 40 yards away.
2. Often across the field, since most, if not all, are right-handed
3. Then look out, this kid can motor — he brought back his 10 career picks at Georgia for 194 yards and two scores.
4. Usually; when the Colts pass rush fell off like a well-thrown knuckleball last season, the corners appeared to step it up a little
5. He’s made for the Cover-2 and would find life much harder outside of it.
6. Actually, he has outstanding ball skills. In 51 games at cal, he had 15-344-4 in interceptions and 30 pass deflections.
7. As with Harper, Coe’s lack of elite closing burst scares me a little.
8. A real one, not the Detroit variety.
9. And he looked a lot smaller than that when he way playing.
10. Both Jackson and Jennings are signed through 2009.
Tuesday, July 1, 2008
Hagler's out ... what, already?
Tyjuan Hagler’s torn pectoral muscle will keep him out of action for at least two months and puts him in danger of missing the regular-season opener. While I would never wish ill on anyone — especially a fine young man like Hagler — it does give the team an opportunity to see what life after Tyjuan will be like.
Not convinced Hagler is going? Here’s the evidence:
• The Colts consider outside linebackers disposable. In the Polian era, the Colts have allowed outside linebackers Cato June, David Thornton, Mike Peterson and Marcus Washington to walk when they became free agents. Hagler will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the 2008 season and, although a competent starter, he’s not as good as any of those guys.
• Drafted in 2005, Hagler has played in just 21 of 48 possible regular-season games, missing the others due to injury. And he’s injured again.
• And, as they always do, the Colts have assembled a crew of potential replacements.
It’s those replacements we’ll see in the next two months. And they aren’t just fighting for the right to start the opener (if Hagler misses it), but also to be first in line for his spot when it empties for good in 2009.
The candidates are (in order):
• Clint Session (Numbers: 5111, 236, 4.57pd; 2007 stats: 16 tackles, 7 assists, 3 tackles for loss, 2-3-0 interceptions, 3 passes defensed, 1 forced fumble, 8 special-teams tackles, 2 special-teams assists with the Colts): A very gifted, surprisingly strong athlete who can lay a lick and keep up with all but the very fastest backs. Colts fans love this former fourth-round pick because of his two picks in his only start last year, but there are some issues that prevent him from being a shoo-in starter. Most of his strength is in his upper body and he can be ridden down too easily by blockers, and taken completely out of the play. Although he has speed and agility, Session is not polished in coverage and blows too many assignments. Worst of all, he has subpar play recognition. Not only does he get fooled by play-action and draws; but he also loses valuable steps making up his mind. Those are all things that he could improve upon — and Session is a pretty good player even considering his drawbacks — but I think Colts fans should think twice before anointing him starter.
• Phillip Wheeler (Numbers: 6017, 248, 4.76c/4.66pd; 46 tackles, 42 assists, 8.5 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks, 5 passes defensed, 2-4-0 fumble returns, 1 forced fumble, with Georgia Tech): A former defensive end who played both inside and outside linebacker in college, Wheeler looked much more comfortable in the middle. Still, he was very productive outside as well, showing great pursuit ability, a knack for creating turnovers and superb blitzing skills. Stronger and harder to block than Session, he’s not as fast but is just as quick and agile and is a more reliable tackler. He has much better instincts, but may take a while to adapt to the pro game because he’s not known as hard worker. Wheeler’s biggest liability is his relative stiffness in zone coverage. Despite that, I think Wheeler is a much better overall prospect than Session. But he’d be better off in the middle than on the strong side and his lack of polish and experience may keep him off the field, at least for now.
• Victor Worsley (Numbers: 6007, 234, 4.59pd; 2007 stats: 1 special-teams tackles, 2 special-teams assists with the Colts): Worsley, undrafted and twice cut, is the long shot, but shouldn’t be counted out. Another player who might be better off inside than out, Worsley has precious little strong side experience. But he probably has the best zone coverage skills of the trio and could emerge as a surprise starter (at least for the short term) if the other two guys fail.
Perhaps as interesting as the three names on the shortlist is one that isn’t on it. I think Jordan Senn and Kyle Shotwell are excused because they went to Portland State and Cal Poly-SLO and are thus probably too raw to be thrown into the fray. Senn’s safety-like size also works against him trying out for the strongside spot.
Conspicuous by his absence is Ramon Guzman. He’s a really good athlete who actually contributed a bit as a rookie (4 tackles, 1 assist, 1 fumble recovery, 8 special-teams tackles, 3 special-teams assists). You’d think he’d get a shot, but late last season, Guzman switched from outside linebacker to defensive end when injuries struck the line. It made sense. He’s got an awesome first step, has good pass-rush moves and is relentless in pursuit. He’s not that good in coverage and lacks real play recognition skills — he could well be better off as a third-down rusher than an outside linebacker. Polian even referred to him as an end in the offseason. But isn’t Guzman too small? He is small for an end by NFL standards (6021, 232, 4.60) but so is Robert Mathis and he makes an honest living. Sure, the Colt list Mathis as 6’2, 245, but I seem to remember him being 6’0, 227 (or some such) at his pro day. If he’s 235 on game days, I’d be truly surprised.
So does that mean Guzman is an end? Maybe. More likely, he’s a special-teamer (he’s good at that) who can fill in at either end or outside linebacker as necessary.
And this brings up another kettle of fish. Tony Dungy said that the Colts were going to bring pressure in ways they hadn’t before. Of course, the media jumped on it and assumed that meant Bob Sanders and his 4.35 forty would be blitzing more.
But maybe the Colts are thinking differently. Wasn’t Wheeler the best blitzing linebacker in the draft? Isn’t Guzman really nothing more than a bullet aimed at the quarterback’s chest?
Hmmm, makes ya think.
Not convinced Hagler is going? Here’s the evidence:
• The Colts consider outside linebackers disposable. In the Polian era, the Colts have allowed outside linebackers Cato June, David Thornton, Mike Peterson and Marcus Washington to walk when they became free agents. Hagler will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the 2008 season and, although a competent starter, he’s not as good as any of those guys.
• Drafted in 2005, Hagler has played in just 21 of 48 possible regular-season games, missing the others due to injury. And he’s injured again.
• And, as they always do, the Colts have assembled a crew of potential replacements.
It’s those replacements we’ll see in the next two months. And they aren’t just fighting for the right to start the opener (if Hagler misses it), but also to be first in line for his spot when it empties for good in 2009.
The candidates are (in order):
• Clint Session (Numbers: 5111, 236, 4.57pd; 2007 stats: 16 tackles, 7 assists, 3 tackles for loss, 2-3-0 interceptions, 3 passes defensed, 1 forced fumble, 8 special-teams tackles, 2 special-teams assists with the Colts): A very gifted, surprisingly strong athlete who can lay a lick and keep up with all but the very fastest backs. Colts fans love this former fourth-round pick because of his two picks in his only start last year, but there are some issues that prevent him from being a shoo-in starter. Most of his strength is in his upper body and he can be ridden down too easily by blockers, and taken completely out of the play. Although he has speed and agility, Session is not polished in coverage and blows too many assignments. Worst of all, he has subpar play recognition. Not only does he get fooled by play-action and draws; but he also loses valuable steps making up his mind. Those are all things that he could improve upon — and Session is a pretty good player even considering his drawbacks — but I think Colts fans should think twice before anointing him starter.
• Phillip Wheeler (Numbers: 6017, 248, 4.76c/4.66pd; 46 tackles, 42 assists, 8.5 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks, 5 passes defensed, 2-4-0 fumble returns, 1 forced fumble, with Georgia Tech): A former defensive end who played both inside and outside linebacker in college, Wheeler looked much more comfortable in the middle. Still, he was very productive outside as well, showing great pursuit ability, a knack for creating turnovers and superb blitzing skills. Stronger and harder to block than Session, he’s not as fast but is just as quick and agile and is a more reliable tackler. He has much better instincts, but may take a while to adapt to the pro game because he’s not known as hard worker. Wheeler’s biggest liability is his relative stiffness in zone coverage. Despite that, I think Wheeler is a much better overall prospect than Session. But he’d be better off in the middle than on the strong side and his lack of polish and experience may keep him off the field, at least for now.
• Victor Worsley (Numbers: 6007, 234, 4.59pd; 2007 stats: 1 special-teams tackles, 2 special-teams assists with the Colts): Worsley, undrafted and twice cut, is the long shot, but shouldn’t be counted out. Another player who might be better off inside than out, Worsley has precious little strong side experience. But he probably has the best zone coverage skills of the trio and could emerge as a surprise starter (at least for the short term) if the other two guys fail.
Perhaps as interesting as the three names on the shortlist is one that isn’t on it. I think Jordan Senn and Kyle Shotwell are excused because they went to Portland State and Cal Poly-SLO and are thus probably too raw to be thrown into the fray. Senn’s safety-like size also works against him trying out for the strongside spot.
Conspicuous by his absence is Ramon Guzman. He’s a really good athlete who actually contributed a bit as a rookie (4 tackles, 1 assist, 1 fumble recovery, 8 special-teams tackles, 3 special-teams assists). You’d think he’d get a shot, but late last season, Guzman switched from outside linebacker to defensive end when injuries struck the line. It made sense. He’s got an awesome first step, has good pass-rush moves and is relentless in pursuit. He’s not that good in coverage and lacks real play recognition skills — he could well be better off as a third-down rusher than an outside linebacker. Polian even referred to him as an end in the offseason. But isn’t Guzman too small? He is small for an end by NFL standards (6021, 232, 4.60) but so is Robert Mathis and he makes an honest living. Sure, the Colt list Mathis as 6’2, 245, but I seem to remember him being 6’0, 227 (or some such) at his pro day. If he’s 235 on game days, I’d be truly surprised.
So does that mean Guzman is an end? Maybe. More likely, he’s a special-teamer (he’s good at that) who can fill in at either end or outside linebacker as necessary.
And this brings up another kettle of fish. Tony Dungy said that the Colts were going to bring pressure in ways they hadn’t before. Of course, the media jumped on it and assumed that meant Bob Sanders and his 4.35 forty would be blitzing more.
But maybe the Colts are thinking differently. Wasn’t Wheeler the best blitzing linebacker in the draft? Isn’t Guzman really nothing more than a bullet aimed at the quarterback’s chest?
Hmmm, makes ya think.
Cornering the center market
If you knew the Colts signed a new player off waivers, what position do you think he’d play? Those of you who said anything but center are wrong, but honest. Those of you who said center were peeking.
Yeah, the newest Colt is a center despite the fact the team has the best center in the business and drafted no fewer than three centers just a few weeks ago. And the funny thing is that the new guy actually has a decent shot at making the team.
Doug Datish (6041, 302, 5.13c in 2007) is best known as the guy who took over from the great Nick Mangold in the middle of Ohio State’s vaunted offensive line. But he actually played all over the line for the Buckeyes — 14 starts at center, 12 at left tackle and nine at left guard.
Datish’s defining characteristic is intelligence — and his quick wit. He earned a degree in history and began graduate school while playing at the highest level in the toughest competition of college football. And he also brings that intelligence (mixed with top instincts) to the field. He understands defenses, picks up stunts and blitzes adroitly and always seemed to keep his linemates in their proper positions.
He’s not considered a great athlete, but has good strength and leverage — factors that are increased by his excellent form, knee bend and hand use. He had very good stats at OSU at far as sacks allowed, pancakes, downfield blocks and touchdown blocks were concerned and definitely passed the eyeball test as a player.
But his so-so numbers at the combine (1) (not to mention a well-publicized belly flab at the Senior Bowl weigh-in) and his lack of natural size led to him being drafted late. He was chosen in the sixth round by the Falcons.
The Falcons had high hopes for him, but it didn’t really work out. At the beginning of training camp, he dislocated a finger on his left hand. It required surgery, but he continued to play with a cast. A week later, he broke a bone in his right wrist. “I couldn't play with two casts, so they threw me on IR,” Datish said. “I hadn't missed a game my whole life, so to miss a whole year was pretty bad.” It wiped out his whole rookie year. (2)
And then, after mini-camp, Atlanta released him. The team didn’t give a reason — unlike when they cut former second-round cornerback Jimmy Williams who they claimed had ballooned to 236 pounds (3) — but many attributed it to the team’s desire to get bigger on the offensive line.
Although the Falcons’ line is much maligned, it’s actually pretty strong — at least on the inside. (4) The starters — from left to right, Justin Blalock, Todd McClure and Kynan Forney — are all very solid. And the top reserve prospects (Alex Stepanovich, D’Anthony Batiste, Quinn Ojinnaka and Ben Wilkerson) started a combined 15 NFL games last year — and all of them are bigger and stronger than Datish.
On the Colts, however, Datish is greeted with a more welcoming coaching staff and philosophy, and less competition. Center Jeff Saturday is an awesome starter (though probably in his final year with the team) and Ryan Lilja is very solid at left guard, but the rest of the interior line is up in the air. Veteran reserve tackle Charlie Johnson is competing with draft pick Mike Pollak for the starting slot at right guard, but neither is a sure thing. (5) The rest of the competition will come from two second-day draft picks and a few street free agents.
Right now, Datish appears to be little more than a name on the depth chart. But he does have a most of the qualities the Colts prize most highly — intelligence, technique, a non-stop motor and versatility. And he has history on his side. Keep in mind that both Saturday and Lilja were undrafted free agents who were cut by other teams. (6) And the Colts have cut many offensive linemen they actually have drafted. (7)
Notes:
1. The 31 reps were nice, but the 26-inch vertical and 8’6 long jump impressed nobody
2. Unable to do much with his hands, he spent the season working on his leg strength
3. The new regime in Atlanta seems to be particularly hard on players acquired from the Bobby Petrino regime — but Williams is no surprise, nobody likes a fat DB
4. Things aren’t so cheery on the outside — journeyman Todd Weiner is the guy to beat on the right side and second first-round pick Sam Baker is the favorite on the left side. If he doesn’t work out, heavy-footed Chris Redman or rookie Matt Ryan will have their backside protected by guys with names like Renardo Foster, Terrance Pennington or Harvey “Barbie” Dahl.
5. My gut says Johnson loses and gets cut
6. Saturday by Baltimore and Lilja by KC
7. Remember Michael Toudouze (5th round, 2006), Dylan Gandy (3rd!, 2005), Robert Hunt (6th, 2005), Steve Sciullo (4th, 2003), Makoa Frietas (6th, 2003), Matt Johnson (5th, 2000) and Aaron Taylor (6th, 1998)? All of them were drafted in the Polian era and all were cut. Although Toudouze was brought back, he doesn’t look like a lock to make the team at this point. That’s seven draft picks cut, while only seven (Tony Ugoh, Charlie Johnson, Jake Scott, Ryan Diem, Rich DeMulling, Brandon Burlsworth and Steve McKinney) made it through a run without being cut. Before you say anything, I know DeMulling was cut, but that was in his second tour with the Colts after a highly paid hiatus in Detroit and a steller first run; and that Burlsworth died before he could play a down, but I have no doubt he would have been a very effective starter. So, getting back to the argument at hand, it can be said that if you are an offensive lineman drafted by the Colts, you have about a fifty-fifty chance of being a real contributor (the ratio is even harsher on second-day picks). Consequently, no team presents a better chance to undrafted free agents and other teams’ rejects.
Yeah, the newest Colt is a center despite the fact the team has the best center in the business and drafted no fewer than three centers just a few weeks ago. And the funny thing is that the new guy actually has a decent shot at making the team.
Doug Datish (6041, 302, 5.13c in 2007) is best known as the guy who took over from the great Nick Mangold in the middle of Ohio State’s vaunted offensive line. But he actually played all over the line for the Buckeyes — 14 starts at center, 12 at left tackle and nine at left guard.
Datish’s defining characteristic is intelligence — and his quick wit. He earned a degree in history and began graduate school while playing at the highest level in the toughest competition of college football. And he also brings that intelligence (mixed with top instincts) to the field. He understands defenses, picks up stunts and blitzes adroitly and always seemed to keep his linemates in their proper positions.
He’s not considered a great athlete, but has good strength and leverage — factors that are increased by his excellent form, knee bend and hand use. He had very good stats at OSU at far as sacks allowed, pancakes, downfield blocks and touchdown blocks were concerned and definitely passed the eyeball test as a player.
But his so-so numbers at the combine (1) (not to mention a well-publicized belly flab at the Senior Bowl weigh-in) and his lack of natural size led to him being drafted late. He was chosen in the sixth round by the Falcons.
The Falcons had high hopes for him, but it didn’t really work out. At the beginning of training camp, he dislocated a finger on his left hand. It required surgery, but he continued to play with a cast. A week later, he broke a bone in his right wrist. “I couldn't play with two casts, so they threw me on IR,” Datish said. “I hadn't missed a game my whole life, so to miss a whole year was pretty bad.” It wiped out his whole rookie year. (2)
And then, after mini-camp, Atlanta released him. The team didn’t give a reason — unlike when they cut former second-round cornerback Jimmy Williams who they claimed had ballooned to 236 pounds (3) — but many attributed it to the team’s desire to get bigger on the offensive line.
Although the Falcons’ line is much maligned, it’s actually pretty strong — at least on the inside. (4) The starters — from left to right, Justin Blalock, Todd McClure and Kynan Forney — are all very solid. And the top reserve prospects (Alex Stepanovich, D’Anthony Batiste, Quinn Ojinnaka and Ben Wilkerson) started a combined 15 NFL games last year — and all of them are bigger and stronger than Datish.
On the Colts, however, Datish is greeted with a more welcoming coaching staff and philosophy, and less competition. Center Jeff Saturday is an awesome starter (though probably in his final year with the team) and Ryan Lilja is very solid at left guard, but the rest of the interior line is up in the air. Veteran reserve tackle Charlie Johnson is competing with draft pick Mike Pollak for the starting slot at right guard, but neither is a sure thing. (5) The rest of the competition will come from two second-day draft picks and a few street free agents.
Right now, Datish appears to be little more than a name on the depth chart. But he does have a most of the qualities the Colts prize most highly — intelligence, technique, a non-stop motor and versatility. And he has history on his side. Keep in mind that both Saturday and Lilja were undrafted free agents who were cut by other teams. (6) And the Colts have cut many offensive linemen they actually have drafted. (7)
Notes:
1. The 31 reps were nice, but the 26-inch vertical and 8’6 long jump impressed nobody
2. Unable to do much with his hands, he spent the season working on his leg strength
3. The new regime in Atlanta seems to be particularly hard on players acquired from the Bobby Petrino regime — but Williams is no surprise, nobody likes a fat DB
4. Things aren’t so cheery on the outside — journeyman Todd Weiner is the guy to beat on the right side and second first-round pick Sam Baker is the favorite on the left side. If he doesn’t work out, heavy-footed Chris Redman or rookie Matt Ryan will have their backside protected by guys with names like Renardo Foster, Terrance Pennington or Harvey “Barbie” Dahl.
5. My gut says Johnson loses and gets cut
6. Saturday by Baltimore and Lilja by KC
7. Remember Michael Toudouze (5th round, 2006), Dylan Gandy (3rd!, 2005), Robert Hunt (6th, 2005), Steve Sciullo (4th, 2003), Makoa Frietas (6th, 2003), Matt Johnson (5th, 2000) and Aaron Taylor (6th, 1998)? All of them were drafted in the Polian era and all were cut. Although Toudouze was brought back, he doesn’t look like a lock to make the team at this point. That’s seven draft picks cut, while only seven (Tony Ugoh, Charlie Johnson, Jake Scott, Ryan Diem, Rich DeMulling, Brandon Burlsworth and Steve McKinney) made it through a run without being cut. Before you say anything, I know DeMulling was cut, but that was in his second tour with the Colts after a highly paid hiatus in Detroit and a steller first run; and that Burlsworth died before he could play a down, but I have no doubt he would have been a very effective starter. So, getting back to the argument at hand, it can be said that if you are an offensive lineman drafted by the Colts, you have about a fifty-fifty chance of being a real contributor (the ratio is even harsher on second-day picks). Consequently, no team presents a better chance to undrafted free agents and other teams’ rejects.
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