Wednesday, January 30, 2008

How much is a good spare part really worth?

We Colts fans know Josh Thomas is no Dwight Freeney or Robert Mathis, but is he a defensive end worth keeping?

Josh Thomas
2007 stats: 12 games, 7 starts, 22 tackles, 7 assists, 1-5 sack, 14 pressures, 2-5 tackles, 1 forced fumble, 3 pass deflections
Combine numbers: 6052/271/4.93 in 2004
Who's he: Growing up in the shadow of Rich Stadium in suburban Buffalo (1), Thomas was a high school football star who still holds the New York State single-season sack record with 24. He went to Syracuse and joined the defensive end rotation immediately, grabbing a starting role as a sophomore. In 36 career games (34 starts), he recorded 68 tackles, 56 assists, nine sacks, 23 tackles for loss and two interceptions. Despite that production and winning the college's Pat Miller Award for Outstanding Athlete, Student and Citizen, Thomas not only went undrafted, but was not a sought-after free agent (2). The Colts — urged on by Thomas' former linemate and good friend Freeney — took a flier on him. In his tenure in Indianapolis, Thomas has served as the team's third or fourth defensive end with an occasional appearance inside at defensive tackle. After Freeney was lost for the season in 2007, Thomas started at left defensive end, with incumbent starter Mathis filling in for Freeney on the right side. In 52 games with the Colts (nine starts), Thomas has recorded 50 tackles, 24 assists, six sacks, 2.5 tackles for loss, three pass deflections, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery.
As a player: For years, Thomas was a spare part we Colts fans saw infrequently and didn't know all that much about. We all knew he could rush the passer from time-to-time, stop the run when called upon and generally play okay. He wouldn't make a lot of big play, but he wouldn't embarrass himself either. After Freeney went down in 2007, though, Colts fans saw Thomas on virtually every defensive play, and got a chance to see what he could do. And what they saw was that Thomas is no Freeney. But, to be fair, neither is anybody else. The truth is that Thomas is a very strong young man with a great first step and impressive arm and hand usage. The flip side of that is that Thomas is an end with poor agility and very little creativity in his pass-rush moves who can be overwhelmed at plays run straight at him (especially on those rare occasions he's double teamed). His penetrate-first, look-for-the-ball-later style of play fits the Colts' defensive philosophy better than most. But to me, he often seems to be playing against his strengths, preferring more of a finesse game than a power one. From my observations — and the stats bear this out — Thomas does better coming off the bench than as a starter, especially in second halves when big tackles are tired and the Colts often have a big lead.
Analysis: Thomas is no Freeney, but, then again, Freeney made $6,718,574 last year while Thomas took home $1,300,000 (3). As a No. 1 defensive end, Thomas is clearly inadequate. As a No. 2, he's so-so. As a No. 3, he's pretty damn good and as a No. 4, he's awesome. Since the Colts still have Freeney and Mathis on hand, Thomas fits in extraordinarily well as No. 3. While that makes scenario sense in a vacuum, there are harsh realities of the salary cap to consider. While Thomas does a nice job, $1.3 large is a lot of money, especially when you are on a budget, just bought a Bob Sanders and your kids have their eyes on a Dallas Clark (not to mention Ryan Lilja and Jake Scott). The Colts would obviously like to bring him back, they may not have the cap room. Besides, Jeff Charleston and Keynuta Dawson are similarly skilled players on the roster with far smaller salaries (4). There are mitigating factors, though. Thomas is a great guy who is active in the community and, if you want to keep Freeney happy, it's a good idea to keep his best pal in town. Whether Thomas stays with the Colts or not depends on what offers he gets from other teams. If some team falls in love with Thomas (5) and raises the bidding price on him, the Colts will lose him. Just as likely, however, is the scenario in which Thomas' agent gets some middling deals and the player himself steps in and asks to return the Indy.
Notes:
1. I generally go to one Bills' home game a year, but all I have ever seen of Orchard Park, N.Y., is a bunch of drunks trying to find a parking spot in the mud so they can set up their barbecue.
2. I can't understand why he went undrafted, let alone unsigned for a few days after the draft. I mean, Bo Schobel, Dave Ball, Nathaniel Adibi, Claude Herriott, Amon Gordon, Shawn Johnson, Trevor Johnson and Isaac Hilton all heard their names that day in April ...
3. I was surprised the Colts gave him such a high tender last year as a restricted free agent.While I realize they wanted to keep him (and were glad they did after Freeney went down), that seems like truckload of money.
4. Neither is in Thomas' class, but both made enough of an impression to lead me to believe they will be soon. For the record, Charleston made $285,000 last year, while Dawson pulled in $295,375 when you pro-rate in his signing bonus.
5. One would assume his hometown Bills will make an effort. Tony Hargrove has been suspended for the 2008 season, leaving just starters Aaron Schobel and Chris Kelsay on the roster.

No comments: