We Colts fans know Josh Thomas is no Dwight Freeney or Robert Mathis, but is he a defensive end worth keeping?
Josh Thomas
2007 stats: 12 games, 7 starts, 22 tackles, 7 assists, 1-5 sack, 14 pressures, 2-5 tackles, 1 forced fumble, 3 pass deflections
Combine numbers: 6052/271/4.93 in 2004
Who's he: Growing up in the shadow of Rich Stadium in suburban Buffalo (1), Thomas was a high school football star who still holds the New York State single-season sack record with 24. He went to Syracuse and joined the defensive end rotation immediately, grabbing a starting role as a sophomore. In 36 career games (34 starts), he recorded 68 tackles, 56 assists, nine sacks, 23 tackles for loss and two interceptions. Despite that production and winning the college's Pat Miller Award for Outstanding Athlete, Student and Citizen, Thomas not only went undrafted, but was not a sought-after free agent (2). The Colts — urged on by Thomas' former linemate and good friend Freeney — took a flier on him. In his tenure in Indianapolis, Thomas has served as the team's third or fourth defensive end with an occasional appearance inside at defensive tackle. After Freeney was lost for the season in 2007, Thomas started at left defensive end, with incumbent starter Mathis filling in for Freeney on the right side. In 52 games with the Colts (nine starts), Thomas has recorded 50 tackles, 24 assists, six sacks, 2.5 tackles for loss, three pass deflections, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery.
As a player: For years, Thomas was a spare part we Colts fans saw infrequently and didn't know all that much about. We all knew he could rush the passer from time-to-time, stop the run when called upon and generally play okay. He wouldn't make a lot of big play, but he wouldn't embarrass himself either. After Freeney went down in 2007, though, Colts fans saw Thomas on virtually every defensive play, and got a chance to see what he could do. And what they saw was that Thomas is no Freeney. But, to be fair, neither is anybody else. The truth is that Thomas is a very strong young man with a great first step and impressive arm and hand usage. The flip side of that is that Thomas is an end with poor agility and very little creativity in his pass-rush moves who can be overwhelmed at plays run straight at him (especially on those rare occasions he's double teamed). His penetrate-first, look-for-the-ball-later style of play fits the Colts' defensive philosophy better than most. But to me, he often seems to be playing against his strengths, preferring more of a finesse game than a power one. From my observations — and the stats bear this out — Thomas does better coming off the bench than as a starter, especially in second halves when big tackles are tired and the Colts often have a big lead.
Analysis: Thomas is no Freeney, but, then again, Freeney made $6,718,574 last year while Thomas took home $1,300,000 (3). As a No. 1 defensive end, Thomas is clearly inadequate. As a No. 2, he's so-so. As a No. 3, he's pretty damn good and as a No. 4, he's awesome. Since the Colts still have Freeney and Mathis on hand, Thomas fits in extraordinarily well as No. 3. While that makes scenario sense in a vacuum, there are harsh realities of the salary cap to consider. While Thomas does a nice job, $1.3 large is a lot of money, especially when you are on a budget, just bought a Bob Sanders and your kids have their eyes on a Dallas Clark (not to mention Ryan Lilja and Jake Scott). The Colts would obviously like to bring him back, they may not have the cap room. Besides, Jeff Charleston and Keynuta Dawson are similarly skilled players on the roster with far smaller salaries (4). There are mitigating factors, though. Thomas is a great guy who is active in the community and, if you want to keep Freeney happy, it's a good idea to keep his best pal in town. Whether Thomas stays with the Colts or not depends on what offers he gets from other teams. If some team falls in love with Thomas (5) and raises the bidding price on him, the Colts will lose him. Just as likely, however, is the scenario in which Thomas' agent gets some middling deals and the player himself steps in and asks to return the Indy.
Notes:
1. I generally go to one Bills' home game a year, but all I have ever seen of Orchard Park, N.Y., is a bunch of drunks trying to find a parking spot in the mud so they can set up their barbecue.
2. I can't understand why he went undrafted, let alone unsigned for a few days after the draft. I mean, Bo Schobel, Dave Ball, Nathaniel Adibi, Claude Herriott, Amon Gordon, Shawn Johnson, Trevor Johnson and Isaac Hilton all heard their names that day in April ...
3. I was surprised the Colts gave him such a high tender last year as a restricted free agent.While I realize they wanted to keep him (and were glad they did after Freeney went down), that seems like truckload of money.
4. Neither is in Thomas' class, but both made enough of an impression to lead me to believe they will be soon. For the record, Charleston made $285,000 last year, while Dawson pulled in $295,375 when you pro-rate in his signing bonus.
5. One would assume his hometown Bills will make an effort. Tony Hargrove has been suspended for the 2008 season, leaving just starters Aaron Schobel and Chris Kelsay on the roster.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
No Moorehead, please
For the second season in a row, wide receiver Aaron Moorehead is a free agent. Last season, the Colts signed him at what amounted to the last minute; but after a year when the team desperately needed him to produce and he responded with eight catches, four first downs, two drops, no scores and a trip to the IR, he may not be so lucky again.
Aaron Moorehead
2007 stats: 8 games, 2 starts, 8-65-0 receiving, 1 tackle
Combine numbers: 6030/201/4.69 in 2003
Who's he: Moorehead certainly comes from good genes. His dad, Emery, was a big-time pass-catching tight end for the Bears who he won a Super Bowl ring with the legendary 1985 team. And Aaron's cousin on his mom's side is Brad Daugherty, the tough seven-foot center who starred for North Carolina and Cleveland before back problems cut his career short. Aaron himself played track, basketball and football in high school and went to Illinois. After a redshirt season in 1998, he worked his way into the receiving rotation, but never managed to dislodge Walter Young (1) or Brandon Lloyd (2) from a starting spot. In 43 games (seven starts) for Illinois, Moorehead caught 85-1293-9. Not selected in the 2003 draft, he caught on with the Colts as a free agent. In 36 games with the Colts, Moorehead's caught 31-330-1 and went 1-34-0 on punt returns. He was an unrestricted free agent last year, and signed a one-year, $721,000 deal to stay with the Colts.
As a player: If you watch Moorehead in drills, he looks like a pretty good receiver. He a big kid who has decent hands, can catch in stride and runs pretty good routes. But much of that evaporates once the games start. He has a very hard time adjusting to balls that don't land directly on his hands, can be pushed around by many defensive backs, doesn't have the burst to gain separation consistently and can hear footsteps over the middle. Despite his size, he's also one of the least effective blocking wide receivers in the league and offers little on special teams. It probably seems like I'm being harsh, but when you look at the numbers, you can see that Moorehead has produced precious little when called upon — to put it plainly, a third and/or fourth wideout in the explosive Colts' offense should really have produced way bigger numbers than Moorehead has. Look at it this way: Back in the day (2004), Brandon Stokley was maybe the best No. 3 receiver ever, regularly humiliating nickel backs and destroying defensive gameplans. And when he went down the following season, Moorehead was given the first chance to replace him. He was so good that he was quickly replaced in the slot by starting tight end Dallas Clark, with Ben Utecht filling in for Clark. You might counter that that was because Moorehead is a long strider not suited to slot play, but the truth is he hasn't produced outside, either. Examine the stats for 2007. Moorehead was called upon repeatedly as injuries struck the Colts' receiving corps hard. Pressed into action on a consistent basis, Moorehead caught just eight of 22 passes thrown to him (that's 36.36 percent; the other Colts' wideouts scored: Anthony Gonzalez 71.15, Reggie Wayne 66.67, Marvin Harrison 62.50, Craphonso Thorpe 60.00 and Devin Aromashodu 41.18). As a pair of exclamation points to that statement, Moorehead showed similarly dismal numbers when it came to YAC and drops before going on IR. The bottom line is that Moorehead has been given every opportunity to succeed, and hasn't.
Analysis: Last offseason, the Colts waited until the day before the draft before offering Moorehead a contract. The next day, they drafted a receiver with their first pick (Gonzalez) and another (Roy Hall) in the fifth round. And, just as he failed to replaced to replace Stokley earlier, Moorehead failed to replace Harrison and Gonzalez when they were injured this season. While Moorehead got a last-minute reprieve last year, he may not be so lucky this offseason. While Harrison's future is still in doubt, he's likely to return and will be no worse than No. 2 in the wideout pecking order if he does. Wayne and Gonzalez are, of course, locks as the other components of the top three. While that would appear to leave a few roster spots open, keep in mind that both veteran retread Thorpe and who's-he? prospect Aromashadu clearly outplayed Moorehead last year, and they earned just $285,000 apiece. While neither of them cast a really big shadow on next year's roster, they, Hall, practice squadder Trent Shelton and a draft pick or two could easily make the position too crowded for Moorehead. My prediction is that Moorehead will have no suitors in free agency. The Colts will politely keep him in mind when the draft rolls around, but then they will see how rich this draft is in wideouts and conveniently lose his phone number.
Notes:
1. After stops in Carolina and Pittsburgh and a grand total of one catch for 17 yards, Young is currently looking for a job.
2. People call him selfish, brat, head case and locker-room cancer. While that may be exaggerated, he wore out his welcome in San Francisco and, although he appears to have found a home in Washington, Lloyd has never played up to his talent level. Still, his 128-1875-13 career receiving stats blow those posted by Moorehead and Young away.
Aaron Moorehead
2007 stats: 8 games, 2 starts, 8-65-0 receiving, 1 tackle
Combine numbers: 6030/201/4.69 in 2003
Who's he: Moorehead certainly comes from good genes. His dad, Emery, was a big-time pass-catching tight end for the Bears who he won a Super Bowl ring with the legendary 1985 team. And Aaron's cousin on his mom's side is Brad Daugherty, the tough seven-foot center who starred for North Carolina and Cleveland before back problems cut his career short. Aaron himself played track, basketball and football in high school and went to Illinois. After a redshirt season in 1998, he worked his way into the receiving rotation, but never managed to dislodge Walter Young (1) or Brandon Lloyd (2) from a starting spot. In 43 games (seven starts) for Illinois, Moorehead caught 85-1293-9. Not selected in the 2003 draft, he caught on with the Colts as a free agent. In 36 games with the Colts, Moorehead's caught 31-330-1 and went 1-34-0 on punt returns. He was an unrestricted free agent last year, and signed a one-year, $721,000 deal to stay with the Colts.
As a player: If you watch Moorehead in drills, he looks like a pretty good receiver. He a big kid who has decent hands, can catch in stride and runs pretty good routes. But much of that evaporates once the games start. He has a very hard time adjusting to balls that don't land directly on his hands, can be pushed around by many defensive backs, doesn't have the burst to gain separation consistently and can hear footsteps over the middle. Despite his size, he's also one of the least effective blocking wide receivers in the league and offers little on special teams. It probably seems like I'm being harsh, but when you look at the numbers, you can see that Moorehead has produced precious little when called upon — to put it plainly, a third and/or fourth wideout in the explosive Colts' offense should really have produced way bigger numbers than Moorehead has. Look at it this way: Back in the day (2004), Brandon Stokley was maybe the best No. 3 receiver ever, regularly humiliating nickel backs and destroying defensive gameplans. And when he went down the following season, Moorehead was given the first chance to replace him. He was so good that he was quickly replaced in the slot by starting tight end Dallas Clark, with Ben Utecht filling in for Clark. You might counter that that was because Moorehead is a long strider not suited to slot play, but the truth is he hasn't produced outside, either. Examine the stats for 2007. Moorehead was called upon repeatedly as injuries struck the Colts' receiving corps hard. Pressed into action on a consistent basis, Moorehead caught just eight of 22 passes thrown to him (that's 36.36 percent; the other Colts' wideouts scored: Anthony Gonzalez 71.15, Reggie Wayne 66.67, Marvin Harrison 62.50, Craphonso Thorpe 60.00 and Devin Aromashodu 41.18). As a pair of exclamation points to that statement, Moorehead showed similarly dismal numbers when it came to YAC and drops before going on IR. The bottom line is that Moorehead has been given every opportunity to succeed, and hasn't.
Analysis: Last offseason, the Colts waited until the day before the draft before offering Moorehead a contract. The next day, they drafted a receiver with their first pick (Gonzalez) and another (Roy Hall) in the fifth round. And, just as he failed to replaced to replace Stokley earlier, Moorehead failed to replace Harrison and Gonzalez when they were injured this season. While Moorehead got a last-minute reprieve last year, he may not be so lucky this offseason. While Harrison's future is still in doubt, he's likely to return and will be no worse than No. 2 in the wideout pecking order if he does. Wayne and Gonzalez are, of course, locks as the other components of the top three. While that would appear to leave a few roster spots open, keep in mind that both veteran retread Thorpe and who's-he? prospect Aromashadu clearly outplayed Moorehead last year, and they earned just $285,000 apiece. While neither of them cast a really big shadow on next year's roster, they, Hall, practice squadder Trent Shelton and a draft pick or two could easily make the position too crowded for Moorehead. My prediction is that Moorehead will have no suitors in free agency. The Colts will politely keep him in mind when the draft rolls around, but then they will see how rich this draft is in wideouts and conveniently lose his phone number.
Notes:
1. After stops in Carolina and Pittsburgh and a grand total of one catch for 17 yards, Young is currently looking for a job.
2. People call him selfish, brat, head case and locker-room cancer. While that may be exaggerated, he wore out his welcome in San Francisco and, although he appears to have found a home in Washington, Lloyd has never played up to his talent level. Still, his 128-1875-13 career receiving stats blow those posted by Moorehead and Young away.
Thursday, January 24, 2008
An end, yes; but tight? Not always.
With Bob Sanders taken care of, the Colts have now turned their attention to a difference-maker on the other side of the ball — tight end Dallas Clark.
Dallas Clark
2007 stats: 15 games, 15 starts, 58-616-11 receiving, 2-29-0 rushing
Combine numbers: 6034/257/4.65 in 2003
Who's he: A four-sport star at Twin Rivers Valley High School in Bode, Iowa, Clark went to the University of Iowa in 1999 as a walk-on linebacker. An emergency appendectomy limited his playing time at first, but he made a name for himself with his heads-up play on special teams. Before the 2001 season, the coaches switched him to tight end. He responded by catching 81-1281-4 and helping lead Iowa to a 24-2 record in two seasons. He cultivated a reputation not just as a talented player, but also as a team leader as well; and he's still considered one of the school's favorite sons. After his junior season, Clark won the John Mackey Award —given to the nation's top collegiate tight end — and declared for the 2003 draft. After wowing scouts with workouts and interviews (drawing comparisons to greats like Jay Novacek and Marv Cook), he was selected by Indianapolis with the 24th pick of the first round. It was a surprise — not because he wasn't worth it, but because many observers thought the Colts needed defensive players more urgently and that the team was set at the position with incumbent starter Marcus Pollard. Clark played behind Pollard for a season, then took over the starting job. In five seasons with the Colts, Clark has played 67 games, starting 57 and missing 13 to injury. He has caught 179-2234-25 and rushed 2-29-0.
As a player: If you closely analyze Clark's numbers with the Colts' you'll see that they mostly fall between where you'd expect to see a very good tight end and a very good wide receiver. And if you look at the game tape, you'll see why. The Colts play Clark at tight end, they split him wide, line him up in the slot, send him in motion and even put him in the backfield. While he does well at each of those positions, my eyeball test says he is most productive from the slot. Maybe that's because that's where he belongs — somewhere between a tight end and a wide receiver. Clark has the attributes of both positions. He is a natural receiver who runs like a deer (he plays much faster than his 40 would lead you to believe) and can handle any route or assignment. But he's also an honest 257 pounds who will flatten any nickel corner who tries to get between him and the ball. Over the years, Clark has become one of Peyton Manning's favorite receivers — often serving as the "hot man" on blitzes. More important, though, is how deadly Clark has become in the red zone, proving almost uncoverable on corner routes and using his big hands and arms to wrestle away defenders on jump balls. There are some drawbacks to this hybrid, though. His blocking is also somewhere between tight end and wide receiver levels. Though his footwork isn't bad, he doesn't bring much pop, certainly less than you'd expect from a player his size. As you might expect, he's much better on the move than he is in-line. Similarly, Clark can be thrown off his routes by many linebackers some harder-hitting safeties. More important, perhaps, is the fact that Clark is injury-prone and will always miss a few games and be noticeably nicked up in others.
Analysis: Players like Clark are very hard to replace, and the Colts are unlikely to even try this year. Unlike Pollard when Clark arrived, he's still quite young and he brings a skill set that's even harder to match. The other notable tight ends in Indy — Ben Utecht and Bryan Fletcher — have nowhere near Clark's talent and are both restricted free agents. There's been talk of making Roy Hall a Clark-like player, but I'll believe that when I see it. And even if the Colts had a first-round draft pick, there are no prospects available who could replace him. The Colts, then, will work very hard to keep him, and wouldn't hesitate to use a franchise tag if that's what it takes. But I'm pretty sure they won't have to. Clark is a Midwestern kid through and through and clearly enjoys playing for the Colts and with Manning. He's likely to sign a healthy, but reasonably sized, contract to stay where he's happy and appreciated.
Notes:
Doubters of Clark's athleticism may way want to watch this: http://homepage.mac.com/scothawk/DallasClark/iMovieTheater75.html
Dallas Clark
2007 stats: 15 games, 15 starts, 58-616-11 receiving, 2-29-0 rushing
Combine numbers: 6034/257/4.65 in 2003
Who's he: A four-sport star at Twin Rivers Valley High School in Bode, Iowa, Clark went to the University of Iowa in 1999 as a walk-on linebacker. An emergency appendectomy limited his playing time at first, but he made a name for himself with his heads-up play on special teams. Before the 2001 season, the coaches switched him to tight end. He responded by catching 81-1281-4 and helping lead Iowa to a 24-2 record in two seasons. He cultivated a reputation not just as a talented player, but also as a team leader as well; and he's still considered one of the school's favorite sons. After his junior season, Clark won the John Mackey Award —given to the nation's top collegiate tight end — and declared for the 2003 draft. After wowing scouts with workouts and interviews (drawing comparisons to greats like Jay Novacek and Marv Cook), he was selected by Indianapolis with the 24th pick of the first round. It was a surprise — not because he wasn't worth it, but because many observers thought the Colts needed defensive players more urgently and that the team was set at the position with incumbent starter Marcus Pollard. Clark played behind Pollard for a season, then took over the starting job. In five seasons with the Colts, Clark has played 67 games, starting 57 and missing 13 to injury. He has caught 179-2234-25 and rushed 2-29-0.
As a player: If you closely analyze Clark's numbers with the Colts' you'll see that they mostly fall between where you'd expect to see a very good tight end and a very good wide receiver. And if you look at the game tape, you'll see why. The Colts play Clark at tight end, they split him wide, line him up in the slot, send him in motion and even put him in the backfield. While he does well at each of those positions, my eyeball test says he is most productive from the slot. Maybe that's because that's where he belongs — somewhere between a tight end and a wide receiver. Clark has the attributes of both positions. He is a natural receiver who runs like a deer (he plays much faster than his 40 would lead you to believe) and can handle any route or assignment. But he's also an honest 257 pounds who will flatten any nickel corner who tries to get between him and the ball. Over the years, Clark has become one of Peyton Manning's favorite receivers — often serving as the "hot man" on blitzes. More important, though, is how deadly Clark has become in the red zone, proving almost uncoverable on corner routes and using his big hands and arms to wrestle away defenders on jump balls. There are some drawbacks to this hybrid, though. His blocking is also somewhere between tight end and wide receiver levels. Though his footwork isn't bad, he doesn't bring much pop, certainly less than you'd expect from a player his size. As you might expect, he's much better on the move than he is in-line. Similarly, Clark can be thrown off his routes by many linebackers some harder-hitting safeties. More important, perhaps, is the fact that Clark is injury-prone and will always miss a few games and be noticeably nicked up in others.
Analysis: Players like Clark are very hard to replace, and the Colts are unlikely to even try this year. Unlike Pollard when Clark arrived, he's still quite young and he brings a skill set that's even harder to match. The other notable tight ends in Indy — Ben Utecht and Bryan Fletcher — have nowhere near Clark's talent and are both restricted free agents. There's been talk of making Roy Hall a Clark-like player, but I'll believe that when I see it. And even if the Colts had a first-round draft pick, there are no prospects available who could replace him. The Colts, then, will work very hard to keep him, and wouldn't hesitate to use a franchise tag if that's what it takes. But I'm pretty sure they won't have to. Clark is a Midwestern kid through and through and clearly enjoys playing for the Colts and with Manning. He's likely to sign a healthy, but reasonably sized, contract to stay where he's happy and appreciated.
Notes:
Doubters of Clark's athleticism may way want to watch this: http://homepage.mac.com/scothawk/DallasClark/iMovieTheater75.html
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Changing of the guards?
To kick off our look at free agency, let's start with Ryan Lilja and Jake Scott — both of the Colts' starting guards, who also happen to be unrestricted free agents.
Ryan Lilja
2007 stats: 16 games, 16 starts, 3-25 penalties (two holds, one false start), 3-26.5 sacks allowed
Combine numbers: 6024/297/5.23 in 2004
Who's he: After receiving no major-college offers, Kansas City native Lilja played two seasons at nearby Coffeyville Community College, before transferring to Kansas State. He eventually took a starting guard job with the Wildcats and showed good athleticism, but went undrafted in 2004. Lilja entertained a number of offers as an undrafted free agent, and signed with his hometown Chiefs. His play in training camp and the preseason were much better than expected, but he was released in the final cut. The Chiefs attempted to sign him to their practice squad, but the Colts signed him before they could. (1) Since then, he has started 43 of 50 games with the Colts (missing 14 to injury) at guard and center. In that time, he has allowed seven sacks and been flagged five times.
As a player: As you'd expect of a Colts lineman, Lilja is a better pass blocker than run blocker. he has very good footwork and hand usage, and generally compensates for a lack of bulk with superior technique. Not really a mauler, Lilja is at his best on the move and can be devastating when he gets to the second level. While considered an aware player, Lilja can have trouble picking up blitzes, especially against 3-4 defenses. He can play center, but is much better at guard.
Jake Scott
2007 stats: 16 games, 16 starts, 5-30 penalties (one hold, four false starts), 4.5-24.5 sacks allowed
Combine numbers: 6047/281/5.09 in 2004
Who's he: A former walk-on at Idaho, Scott earned a spot at center before switching to right tackle in the Vandals' high-powered offense. An Idaho native, Scott earned a civil engineering degree his senior season. The Colts raised some eyebrows in the 2004 draft by selecting him in the fifth round. Although many teams considered him a smart, athletic and technically sound lineman, his lack of bulk (he looks more like an NBA player than an NFL lineman) scared most of them off. Scott has since started 57 of 60 games played for the Colts (four missed to injury in his rookie season) at both guard positions and at right tackle. In his career, he has allowed 10.5 sacks and been flagged 19 times.
As a player: Despite his thin frame, Scott is very strong and can win his share of battles at the line of scrimmage. His hand usage is very good, as is most of his technique, but his footwork is not special. A load on the move, Scott is better in the running game than in pass protection, in which some bull-rushers can bowl him over if they stay low and disturb his set. Like Lilja, he can be fooled by creative defenses, especially when facing odd-number fronts and zone blitzes. He plays passably well at right tackle and could probably fill in at center in a pinch, but is better off as a guard.
Analysis: The consensus opinion is that Lilja is a better player than Scott. While I agree, I'd have to say that the edge is not as great as some would have you believe. Keep in mind that Scott has had to play right tackle on occasion when you look at their stats. The Colts run about the same number of plays behind Scott as they do Lilja and gave both players $1.3 million tenders when they were restricted free agents last year.
There are a number of factors at play here as to whether the Colts will keep both, one or neither:
• Cap room. The Colts just signed Bob Sanders to a $37.5 million contract and made lesser deals with Tyjuan Hagler and Jim Sorgi. Now, the focus is on keeping Dallas Clark, who will command a huge contract and may well get a franchise tag. While the Colts are brilliant at restructuring, there's only so much they can do. If Lilja and/or Scott are to be signed, they'll have to fight for the scraps left over after Clark has his meal.
• The market. Guards are getting more attention and bigger contracts these days than they used to. And, more teams are appreciating smart, mobile blockers who can fit into a zone-blocking scheme — both Scott and Lilja fit the bill. Many teams with cap room are looking to build their lines and would well be interested in a solid starter with Super Bowl experience. The Chiefs — the same team who let him slip through the cracks in 2004 — were said to have made some overtures to Lilja last season, but didn't want to give up a draft pick. You can be sure they will try again this year. Teams like Atlanta, Houston, Tennessee and Denver are also likely to target at least one of the Colts guards. The market, however, many not be as active as their agents will claim. Colt offensive linemen (like Rick DeMulling and Tupe Peko) have been busts after they left the team, and many scouts believe that the team's system, coaching and offensive firepower make linemen look much better than they actually are.
• Being a Colt. Both players have strong ties to Indy and are virtually guaranteed a playoff spots for years if they stay. They get to play with greats like Peyton Manning and stay part of a team that took a chance on them when they were considered fringe prospects at best. The flip side of that is that credit for their play will often go to Manning's quick release, Howard Mudd's coaching or Tom Moore's game-planning.
• Depth. Right now, the Colts have only one veteran option, Dylan Gandy, at guard after the starters (2). Not only is Gandy a cut below Lilja and Scott in ability, but he's also a restricted free agent. The Colts have to start someone at guard, and would prefer to maintain continuity. A rookie is an option, but without a first-round pick and with second-year man Tony Ugoh at left tackle and injury-prone Ryan Diem at right tackle, that could be dangerous. The Colts don't place a premium on the guard position, but the prospect of having them both leave could change that.
In the end, I think the Colts will try to find a way to keep one of last year's starters and pair him with Gandy in training camp. Which one will be determined by the open market. Lilja probably has the upper hand because he's better known. Whoever stays will almost certainly be joined by a draft pick who'll push for a starting spot as a rookie or soph. Look for any veteran they keep to sign a backloaded deal with a small signing bonus and big roster bonuses, so the team can cut him later on without too much of a cap hit. Should they both leave, look for the team to try to unearth another gem, as they did with Scott, Lilja, starting center Jeff Saturday and many others.
Notes:
1. NFL teams can sign players from other teams' practice squads only if they assign the player to the active roster. The Colts did that with Lilja.
2. They also have prospects Mike Elgin, Tala Esera and Patrick Ross.
Ryan Lilja
2007 stats: 16 games, 16 starts, 3-25 penalties (two holds, one false start), 3-26.5 sacks allowed
Combine numbers: 6024/297/5.23 in 2004
Who's he: After receiving no major-college offers, Kansas City native Lilja played two seasons at nearby Coffeyville Community College, before transferring to Kansas State. He eventually took a starting guard job with the Wildcats and showed good athleticism, but went undrafted in 2004. Lilja entertained a number of offers as an undrafted free agent, and signed with his hometown Chiefs. His play in training camp and the preseason were much better than expected, but he was released in the final cut. The Chiefs attempted to sign him to their practice squad, but the Colts signed him before they could. (1) Since then, he has started 43 of 50 games with the Colts (missing 14 to injury) at guard and center. In that time, he has allowed seven sacks and been flagged five times.
As a player: As you'd expect of a Colts lineman, Lilja is a better pass blocker than run blocker. he has very good footwork and hand usage, and generally compensates for a lack of bulk with superior technique. Not really a mauler, Lilja is at his best on the move and can be devastating when he gets to the second level. While considered an aware player, Lilja can have trouble picking up blitzes, especially against 3-4 defenses. He can play center, but is much better at guard.
Jake Scott
2007 stats: 16 games, 16 starts, 5-30 penalties (one hold, four false starts), 4.5-24.5 sacks allowed
Combine numbers: 6047/281/5.09 in 2004
Who's he: A former walk-on at Idaho, Scott earned a spot at center before switching to right tackle in the Vandals' high-powered offense. An Idaho native, Scott earned a civil engineering degree his senior season. The Colts raised some eyebrows in the 2004 draft by selecting him in the fifth round. Although many teams considered him a smart, athletic and technically sound lineman, his lack of bulk (he looks more like an NBA player than an NFL lineman) scared most of them off. Scott has since started 57 of 60 games played for the Colts (four missed to injury in his rookie season) at both guard positions and at right tackle. In his career, he has allowed 10.5 sacks and been flagged 19 times.
As a player: Despite his thin frame, Scott is very strong and can win his share of battles at the line of scrimmage. His hand usage is very good, as is most of his technique, but his footwork is not special. A load on the move, Scott is better in the running game than in pass protection, in which some bull-rushers can bowl him over if they stay low and disturb his set. Like Lilja, he can be fooled by creative defenses, especially when facing odd-number fronts and zone blitzes. He plays passably well at right tackle and could probably fill in at center in a pinch, but is better off as a guard.
Analysis: The consensus opinion is that Lilja is a better player than Scott. While I agree, I'd have to say that the edge is not as great as some would have you believe. Keep in mind that Scott has had to play right tackle on occasion when you look at their stats. The Colts run about the same number of plays behind Scott as they do Lilja and gave both players $1.3 million tenders when they were restricted free agents last year.
There are a number of factors at play here as to whether the Colts will keep both, one or neither:
• Cap room. The Colts just signed Bob Sanders to a $37.5 million contract and made lesser deals with Tyjuan Hagler and Jim Sorgi. Now, the focus is on keeping Dallas Clark, who will command a huge contract and may well get a franchise tag. While the Colts are brilliant at restructuring, there's only so much they can do. If Lilja and/or Scott are to be signed, they'll have to fight for the scraps left over after Clark has his meal.
• The market. Guards are getting more attention and bigger contracts these days than they used to. And, more teams are appreciating smart, mobile blockers who can fit into a zone-blocking scheme — both Scott and Lilja fit the bill. Many teams with cap room are looking to build their lines and would well be interested in a solid starter with Super Bowl experience. The Chiefs — the same team who let him slip through the cracks in 2004 — were said to have made some overtures to Lilja last season, but didn't want to give up a draft pick. You can be sure they will try again this year. Teams like Atlanta, Houston, Tennessee and Denver are also likely to target at least one of the Colts guards. The market, however, many not be as active as their agents will claim. Colt offensive linemen (like Rick DeMulling and Tupe Peko) have been busts after they left the team, and many scouts believe that the team's system, coaching and offensive firepower make linemen look much better than they actually are.
• Being a Colt. Both players have strong ties to Indy and are virtually guaranteed a playoff spots for years if they stay. They get to play with greats like Peyton Manning and stay part of a team that took a chance on them when they were considered fringe prospects at best. The flip side of that is that credit for their play will often go to Manning's quick release, Howard Mudd's coaching or Tom Moore's game-planning.
• Depth. Right now, the Colts have only one veteran option, Dylan Gandy, at guard after the starters (2). Not only is Gandy a cut below Lilja and Scott in ability, but he's also a restricted free agent. The Colts have to start someone at guard, and would prefer to maintain continuity. A rookie is an option, but without a first-round pick and with second-year man Tony Ugoh at left tackle and injury-prone Ryan Diem at right tackle, that could be dangerous. The Colts don't place a premium on the guard position, but the prospect of having them both leave could change that.
In the end, I think the Colts will try to find a way to keep one of last year's starters and pair him with Gandy in training camp. Which one will be determined by the open market. Lilja probably has the upper hand because he's better known. Whoever stays will almost certainly be joined by a draft pick who'll push for a starting spot as a rookie or soph. Look for any veteran they keep to sign a backloaded deal with a small signing bonus and big roster bonuses, so the team can cut him later on without too much of a cap hit. Should they both leave, look for the team to try to unearth another gem, as they did with Scott, Lilja, starting center Jeff Saturday and many others.
Notes:
1. NFL teams can sign players from other teams' practice squads only if they assign the player to the active roster. The Colts did that with Lilja.
2. They also have prospects Mike Elgin, Tala Esera and Patrick Ross.
Let the postseason begin!
Like many Colts fans, once Peyton Manning's 4th-and-5 pass to Dallas Clark went incomplete, I began thinking about the 2008 season (1).
Well, actually the offseason. The Colts fielded a very good team in 2007 —one that could have seriously scared the Patriots had it not had to put up with debilitating injuries to Dwight Freeney, Marvin Harrison, Booger McFarland and Rob Morris (2) along with the sudden retirement of stalwart left tackle Tarik Glenn. But the 2007 Colts fell short, and may need more than a little realignment to contend for the top spot again.
This blog will examine the team's various personnel issues and moves in the offseason, starting immediately with free agency. Here's what I have for the Colts' pending free agents as of Jan. 22, 2008 (3):
Unrestricted free agents:
Rocky Boiman OLB
Dallas Clark TE (4)
Ryan Lilja G
Dan Klecko DT
Aaron Moorehead WR
Mike Seidman TE
Jake Scott G/T
Josh Thomas DE
Restricted free agents:
Bryan Fletcher TE
Dylan Gandy G
Matt Giordano S
Darrell Reid DT
Ben Utecht TE
If anyone out there knows of any others, please leave a comment. Many thanks to the great Gino for helping me get it straight.
Notes:
1. I think it's great that the NFL calls it the 2008 season, even though it slops over well into 2009. I never liked how hockey and basketball both have 2008/2009 seasons. That's the NFL for you: Decisive.
2. Do not get on me for including Rob Morris amongst those luminaries. His 2006 season at OLB was better than many believe (and even the naysayers admit he did well), and his absence on special-teams coverage units led to disaster. His play in 2006 was a big part of the Super Bowl XLI run. Not convinced? Learn more about Morris in a later Coltplay post.
3. Don't bother me with exclusive-rights free agents. These guys must sign with the Colts (if the team wants them) or leave the NFL. Do you really think any of these guys wants to go to the CFL — or a higher-paying job at Blockbuster?
4. Has anyone ever seen a tight end play less tight end than Clark? He splits wide, goes into H-back motion, plays slot and lines up at fullback far more often than he spends his pre-snap time next to a tackle. Not saying it's a bad thing, just feel funny calling him a tight end.
Well, actually the offseason. The Colts fielded a very good team in 2007 —one that could have seriously scared the Patriots had it not had to put up with debilitating injuries to Dwight Freeney, Marvin Harrison, Booger McFarland and Rob Morris (2) along with the sudden retirement of stalwart left tackle Tarik Glenn. But the 2007 Colts fell short, and may need more than a little realignment to contend for the top spot again.
This blog will examine the team's various personnel issues and moves in the offseason, starting immediately with free agency. Here's what I have for the Colts' pending free agents as of Jan. 22, 2008 (3):
Unrestricted free agents:
Rocky Boiman OLB
Dallas Clark TE (4)
Ryan Lilja G
Dan Klecko DT
Aaron Moorehead WR
Mike Seidman TE
Jake Scott G/T
Josh Thomas DE
Restricted free agents:
Bryan Fletcher TE
Dylan Gandy G
Matt Giordano S
Darrell Reid DT
Ben Utecht TE
If anyone out there knows of any others, please leave a comment. Many thanks to the great Gino for helping me get it straight.
Notes:
1. I think it's great that the NFL calls it the 2008 season, even though it slops over well into 2009. I never liked how hockey and basketball both have 2008/2009 seasons. That's the NFL for you: Decisive.
2. Do not get on me for including Rob Morris amongst those luminaries. His 2006 season at OLB was better than many believe (and even the naysayers admit he did well), and his absence on special-teams coverage units led to disaster. His play in 2006 was a big part of the Super Bowl XLI run. Not convinced? Learn more about Morris in a later Coltplay post.
3. Don't bother me with exclusive-rights free agents. These guys must sign with the Colts (if the team wants them) or leave the NFL. Do you really think any of these guys wants to go to the CFL — or a higher-paying job at Blockbuster?
4. Has anyone ever seen a tight end play less tight end than Clark? He splits wide, goes into H-back motion, plays slot and lines up at fullback far more often than he spends his pre-snap time next to a tackle. Not saying it's a bad thing, just feel funny calling him a tight end.
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