Let's say he signs elsewhere. What would the Colts do? My guess would be drafting Christian Ponder, re-designing the offense into the old West Coast, crossing our fingers and hoping for the best.
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
Bizarro QB
We all know Peyton Manning is incredibly loyal and all that, but let's just go nuts for a second and think about the worst-case scenario for the Colts. What if the new CBA forbids the franchise tag and Manning wakes up and looks around and thinks my backs are Joe Addai and Donnie Brown, my tackles are basically turnstiles and my defense will never be anything more than a speed bump? Why don't I just sign for more money and get a few more Super Bowls?
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
The Real Depth Chart
With the CBA in doubt, the concepts of ERFA, RFA, UFA and Franchise are no longer valid. So here's a depth chart based on who the Colts actually have under contract.
QB 7 Curtis Painter
RB 31 Donald Brown, 42 Javarris James, 45 Devin Moore
FL 85 Pierre Garcon, 17 Austin Collie, 15 Blair White, 12 Chris Brooks
SE 87 Reggie Wayne, 11 Anthony Gonzalez, 10 Taj Smith, 13 Kole Heckendorf
TE 44 Dallas Clark, 84 Jacob Tamme
H-B 81 Brody Eldridge, 86 Rob Myers
RT 71 Ryan Diem, 60 James Williams
RG 78 Mike Pollak, 73 Jaimie Thomas
C 63 Jeff Saturday, 65 Jacques McClendon
LG 61 Jamey Richard, 77 Casey Bender
LT 72 Jeff Linkenbach, 76 Joe Reitz, 79 Mike Tepper
RDE 93 Dwight Freeney, 92 Jerry Hughes
RDT 91 Ricardo Mathews, 69 DeMario Pressley
LDT 95 Fili Moala, 69 John Gill
LDE 98 Robert Mathis, 97 John Chick
RLB 53 Kavell Conner, 54 Nate Triplett
MLB 58 Gary Brackett, 52 Cody Glenn
LLB 51 Pat Angerer, 50 Philip Wheeler
RCB 25 Jerraud Powers, 27 Jacob Lacey, 39 Cornelius Brown, 36 Jordan Hemby
LCB 26 Kelvin Hayden, 20 Justin Tryon, 22 Kevin Thomas, 43 Terrence Johnson
SS 38 Mike Newton, 30 David Caldwell
FS 41 Antoine Bethea, 49 Chip Vaughn, 37 Brandon King
K 2 Brett Swenson
P 1 Pat McAfee
LS 48 Justin Snow
QB 7 Curtis Painter
RB 31 Donald Brown, 42 Javarris James, 45 Devin Moore
FL 85 Pierre Garcon, 17 Austin Collie, 15 Blair White, 12 Chris Brooks
SE 87 Reggie Wayne, 11 Anthony Gonzalez, 10 Taj Smith, 13 Kole Heckendorf
TE 44 Dallas Clark, 84 Jacob Tamme
H-B 81 Brody Eldridge, 86 Rob Myers
RT 71 Ryan Diem, 60 James Williams
RG 78 Mike Pollak, 73 Jaimie Thomas
C 63 Jeff Saturday, 65 Jacques McClendon
LG 61 Jamey Richard, 77 Casey Bender
LT 72 Jeff Linkenbach, 76 Joe Reitz, 79 Mike Tepper
RDE 93 Dwight Freeney, 92 Jerry Hughes
RDT 91 Ricardo Mathews, 69 DeMario Pressley
LDT 95 Fili Moala, 69 John Gill
LDE 98 Robert Mathis, 97 John Chick
RLB 53 Kavell Conner, 54 Nate Triplett
MLB 58 Gary Brackett, 52 Cody Glenn
LLB 51 Pat Angerer, 50 Philip Wheeler
RCB 25 Jerraud Powers, 27 Jacob Lacey, 39 Cornelius Brown, 36 Jordan Hemby
LCB 26 Kelvin Hayden, 20 Justin Tryon, 22 Kevin Thomas, 43 Terrence Johnson
SS 38 Mike Newton, 30 David Caldwell
FS 41 Antoine Bethea, 49 Chip Vaughn, 37 Brandon King
K 2 Brett Swenson
P 1 Pat McAfee
LS 48 Justin Snow
Late Note: Sharp-eyed reader Mrcrayz888 points out that I missed out on John Gill and Mike Tepper. They have been added. Thanks, pal!
Positional analysis: Running backs
You can blame poor blocking and injuries all you want, but the Colts running backs just were not very good in 2010. Here's a look:
Joseph Addai
2010 stats: 8 games/7 starts, 116-495-4 rushing, 19-124-0, 2/1 fumbles
Contract status: Unsigned
Analysis: I’ve never been an Addai backer. I mean, he’s an okay back, but he lacks a breakway threat (despite a fast combine 40) and he’s not a reliable grinder either. Even when things were at their best in his first two pro seasons, I was never that impressed, regarding him as a decent back, but nothing better. Last season, he missed a great deal of time due to a nasty neck injury and hardly wowed when he was healthy. As a receiver, he offers decent hands but does little with the ball after the catch. Addai’s saving grace is that he’s a very adept pass-blocker, which is very important when you share a backfield with Peyton Manning. Interestingly, he has historically run much better on grass than turf.
Donald Brown
2010 stats:13 games/8 starts, 129-497-2 rushing, 20-205-0 receiving, 0/0 fumbles
Contract status: signed through 2013
Analysis: The plan when Brown was drafted in the first round in 2009 appeared to be that he would apprentice under Addai and then replace him when Addai’s veteran status and free agency meant he would command a long-term, high-buck deal. But there was a problem – Brown’s not very good. Or at least he hasn’t been in a Colts’ uniform and it’s rare a back gets much better after his first two years. Brown has made a few good plays, but generally looks tentative and cautious in his decision-making as a runner. One good sign, though, is that Browns runs much better after he’s had a dozen or so carries and can get into some form of rhythm. He’s not a bad receiver at all, but his terrible pass-blocking make it unlikely he will ever carve a niche out as a third-down specialist. Ièd suggest moving him to slot receiver, but if it didn't happen it 2010, when the Colts were desperate for healthy receivers, it will never happen.
Mike Hart
2010 stats: 7 games/1 start, 43-185-1 rushing, 6-25-0, 0/0 fumbles
Contract status: Unsigned
Analysis: Colt fans have always rallied around Hart, but the fact is that he’s got pulling guard speed, average functional strength and a long, long history of injuries. Not qualified to be a starter, a third-down back or a short-yardage specialist (and not really a contributor on special teams), it’s hard to see where he would fit other than a jack-of-all-trades-master-of-none spare body. He is a superior block, though, and has
Dominic Rhodes
2010 stats: 3 games/0 starts, 37-172-0 rushing, 1-4-0 receiving, 12-252-0 kick returns, 1/1 fumbles
Contract status: Unsigned
Analysis: At the end of the season, when injuries were all over the offense, the Colts signed their old friend Rhodes off the street (he’d been cut by Buffalo earlier). Sadly, he looked like the team’s best runner until a hip injury brought him down to Earth in the season-ending loss to the Jets. Even at his best – and that was many years and injuries ago – Rhodes was never an elite back, and at 33 is unlikely to get any better.
Javarris James
2010 stats: 10 games/0 starts, 46-112-6 rushing, 9-63-0 receiving, 3-16-0 kick returns, 1 special-teams tackle, 0/0 fumbles
Contract status: Signed through 2012
Analysis: Although his stats look mediocre at first, James’ six scores in 46 carries is a shocking number when you look at the other backs’ scoring or lack thereof (seven in 327 carries). Unlike his cousin, Edgerrin James, who was a speed back surprisingly easy to take down for his size, “Baby J” is slow and a load to bring down. That has made him very suitable to short-yardage work – all but one of his rushing touchdowns came from three yards or closer. He’s also a very good blocker (as Edgerrin was), especially as an up back on return teams. But don’t expect James ever to develop into a major producer on offense. He’s just too slow and lacks moves.
Devin Moore
2010 stats: 4 games/0 starts, 2-(-2)-0 rushing, 12-257-0 kick returns, 1/1 fumbles
Contract status: Signed through 2011
Analysis: Last year, Moore played only a few snaps on offense, and the results were not pretty. Unless the Colts design specific plays to get him into space quickly, it’s unlikely he’ll ever see much time on offense. He was, however, the Colts primary return man before he was felled by injury in 2010. He offers little as a pass-catcher, blocker or on special teams aside from returns.
What about 2011?: It all depends on what happens with Addai. He’s a free agent and the Colts have offered him a tender. Of course, we all know that those tenders will be meaningless under virtually any sort of reasonable CBA, but at least it shows him that the team wants him back. Addai is a gentlemanly, loyal sort, so it’s very likely he would re-sign. But if he doesn’t, the Colts could be sent into disarray at the position.
Plan Brown did not work out, but he is under contract, so he’ll be invited back to show us we’re all wrong. But the fact that he received no carries – actually no offensive snaps at all – against the Jets in the playoffs despite being healthy indicates he’s not a big part of the team’s future.
I think Rhodes has had the biscuit, but Polian love his old favorites, and it wouldn’t be out of the question for him to get an invitation to training camp. Hart’s also a free agent, and his lack of production and potential could prevent the Colts from re-signing him. More likely, is that they will give his spot to James, who does most of the same things only better and has a well-defined role as a short-yardage guy. Moore will be invited back, but just to defend his kick return job. Don’t expect to see him line up on offense.
Free agency: Forget it, the Colts rarely sign veteran free agents of any merit, and Polian has a belief that veteran backs are worthless backs.
Draft: If the Colts re-sign Addai, he’ll be the team’s featured back, for better or worse. If they don’t re-sign him, they would be scrambling for a feature back. Considering the needs on the offensive and defensive lines as well as safety, spending a top draft pick on a running back would be difficult (especially considering the fact that the Colts used two first-round picks on the position in the past five years). But if you look at the top twenty rushing leaders from 2010, you’ll notice that only seven of them were first-round picks. Great backs can be had later in the draft. This year, I really like Cal’s Shane Vereen, UConn’s Jordan Todman and Maryland’s Da’Rel Scott.
A few stats:
Rushing average
Rhodes 4.65
Hart 4.30
Addai 4.27
Brown 3.85
James 2.43
Moore -1.00
First-down percentage
Addai 26.72
Hart 23.26
Rhodes 21.62
Brown 20.16
James 19.57
Moore 0.00
Stuff percentage
Addai 8.62
James 8.70
Hart 9.30
Rhodes 10.81
Brown 12.40
Moore 50.00
Catch percentage
Hart 100.00
James 81.82
Addai 73.08
Brown 71.43
Rhodes 25.00
Average yards per reception
Brown 10.25
James 7.00
Addai 6.53
Hart 4.17
Rhodes 4.00
Average yards per target
Brown 7.32
James 5.73
Addai 4.80
Hart 4.17
Rhodes 1.00
YAC average
Brown 9.35
James 9.11
Addai 4.84
Hart 4.50
Rhodes 2.00
A note on fullbacks: Ain’t gonna happen.
Joseph Addai
2010 stats: 8 games/7 starts, 116-495-4 rushing, 19-124-0, 2/1 fumbles
Contract status: Unsigned
Analysis: I’ve never been an Addai backer. I mean, he’s an okay back, but he lacks a breakway threat (despite a fast combine 40) and he’s not a reliable grinder either. Even when things were at their best in his first two pro seasons, I was never that impressed, regarding him as a decent back, but nothing better. Last season, he missed a great deal of time due to a nasty neck injury and hardly wowed when he was healthy. As a receiver, he offers decent hands but does little with the ball after the catch. Addai’s saving grace is that he’s a very adept pass-blocker, which is very important when you share a backfield with Peyton Manning. Interestingly, he has historically run much better on grass than turf.
Donald Brown
2010 stats:13 games/8 starts, 129-497-2 rushing, 20-205-0 receiving, 0/0 fumbles
Contract status: signed through 2013
Analysis: The plan when Brown was drafted in the first round in 2009 appeared to be that he would apprentice under Addai and then replace him when Addai’s veteran status and free agency meant he would command a long-term, high-buck deal. But there was a problem – Brown’s not very good. Or at least he hasn’t been in a Colts’ uniform and it’s rare a back gets much better after his first two years. Brown has made a few good plays, but generally looks tentative and cautious in his decision-making as a runner. One good sign, though, is that Browns runs much better after he’s had a dozen or so carries and can get into some form of rhythm. He’s not a bad receiver at all, but his terrible pass-blocking make it unlikely he will ever carve a niche out as a third-down specialist. Ièd suggest moving him to slot receiver, but if it didn't happen it 2010, when the Colts were desperate for healthy receivers, it will never happen.
Mike Hart
2010 stats: 7 games/1 start, 43-185-1 rushing, 6-25-0, 0/0 fumbles
Contract status: Unsigned
Analysis: Colt fans have always rallied around Hart, but the fact is that he’s got pulling guard speed, average functional strength and a long, long history of injuries. Not qualified to be a starter, a third-down back or a short-yardage specialist (and not really a contributor on special teams), it’s hard to see where he would fit other than a jack-of-all-trades-master-of-none spare body. He is a superior block, though, and has
Dominic Rhodes
2010 stats: 3 games/0 starts, 37-172-0 rushing, 1-4-0 receiving, 12-252-0 kick returns, 1/1 fumbles
Contract status: Unsigned
Analysis: At the end of the season, when injuries were all over the offense, the Colts signed their old friend Rhodes off the street (he’d been cut by Buffalo earlier). Sadly, he looked like the team’s best runner until a hip injury brought him down to Earth in the season-ending loss to the Jets. Even at his best – and that was many years and injuries ago – Rhodes was never an elite back, and at 33 is unlikely to get any better.
Javarris James
2010 stats: 10 games/0 starts, 46-112-6 rushing, 9-63-0 receiving, 3-16-0 kick returns, 1 special-teams tackle, 0/0 fumbles
Contract status: Signed through 2012
Analysis: Although his stats look mediocre at first, James’ six scores in 46 carries is a shocking number when you look at the other backs’ scoring or lack thereof (seven in 327 carries). Unlike his cousin, Edgerrin James, who was a speed back surprisingly easy to take down for his size, “Baby J” is slow and a load to bring down. That has made him very suitable to short-yardage work – all but one of his rushing touchdowns came from three yards or closer. He’s also a very good blocker (as Edgerrin was), especially as an up back on return teams. But don’t expect James ever to develop into a major producer on offense. He’s just too slow and lacks moves.
Devin Moore
2010 stats: 4 games/0 starts, 2-(-2)-0 rushing, 12-257-0 kick returns, 1/1 fumbles
Contract status: Signed through 2011
Analysis: Last year, Moore played only a few snaps on offense, and the results were not pretty. Unless the Colts design specific plays to get him into space quickly, it’s unlikely he’ll ever see much time on offense. He was, however, the Colts primary return man before he was felled by injury in 2010. He offers little as a pass-catcher, blocker or on special teams aside from returns.
What about 2011?: It all depends on what happens with Addai. He’s a free agent and the Colts have offered him a tender. Of course, we all know that those tenders will be meaningless under virtually any sort of reasonable CBA, but at least it shows him that the team wants him back. Addai is a gentlemanly, loyal sort, so it’s very likely he would re-sign. But if he doesn’t, the Colts could be sent into disarray at the position.
Plan Brown did not work out, but he is under contract, so he’ll be invited back to show us we’re all wrong. But the fact that he received no carries – actually no offensive snaps at all – against the Jets in the playoffs despite being healthy indicates he’s not a big part of the team’s future.
I think Rhodes has had the biscuit, but Polian love his old favorites, and it wouldn’t be out of the question for him to get an invitation to training camp. Hart’s also a free agent, and his lack of production and potential could prevent the Colts from re-signing him. More likely, is that they will give his spot to James, who does most of the same things only better and has a well-defined role as a short-yardage guy. Moore will be invited back, but just to defend his kick return job. Don’t expect to see him line up on offense.
Free agency: Forget it, the Colts rarely sign veteran free agents of any merit, and Polian has a belief that veteran backs are worthless backs.
Draft: If the Colts re-sign Addai, he’ll be the team’s featured back, for better or worse. If they don’t re-sign him, they would be scrambling for a feature back. Considering the needs on the offensive and defensive lines as well as safety, spending a top draft pick on a running back would be difficult (especially considering the fact that the Colts used two first-round picks on the position in the past five years). But if you look at the top twenty rushing leaders from 2010, you’ll notice that only seven of them were first-round picks. Great backs can be had later in the draft. This year, I really like Cal’s Shane Vereen, UConn’s Jordan Todman and Maryland’s Da’Rel Scott.
A few stats:
Rushing average
Rhodes 4.65
Hart 4.30
Addai 4.27
Brown 3.85
James 2.43
Moore -1.00
First-down percentage
Addai 26.72
Hart 23.26
Rhodes 21.62
Brown 20.16
James 19.57
Moore 0.00
Stuff percentage
Addai 8.62
James 8.70
Hart 9.30
Rhodes 10.81
Brown 12.40
Moore 50.00
Catch percentage
Hart 100.00
James 81.82
Addai 73.08
Brown 71.43
Rhodes 25.00
Average yards per reception
Brown 10.25
James 7.00
Addai 6.53
Hart 4.17
Rhodes 4.00
Average yards per target
Brown 7.32
James 5.73
Addai 4.80
Hart 4.17
Rhodes 1.00
YAC average
Brown 9.35
James 9.11
Addai 4.84
Hart 4.50
Rhodes 2.00
A note on fullbacks: Ain’t gonna happen.
Monday, May 24, 2010
New guys, other stuff
The Colts signed three more players, here's a look:
Jordan Sisco WR Regina
Numbers: 5115/212, 1.56 ten, 2.59 twenty, 4.50 forty, 8 reps, 34-inch vertical, 9-7 broad jump, 4.38 shuttle, 9-inch hands, 29 7/8-inch arms*
2009 stats: 52-700-2 recieving, 25-74-0 rushing, 1-0-0-0-0 passing, 1-0-0 punt returns
Who he is: Another raw Canadian receiving prospect, so his best shot would appear to be the practice squad. Hope’s nowhere near the athlete Sam Giguere is, but appears to be a smoother receiver with good football intelligence. Unfortunately, he has no return experience.
Pete Ittersagen CB Wheaton
Numbers: 5102/189, 4.47 forty, 18 reps, 37-inch vertical, 9’10 broad jump, 6.60 three-cone, 4.32 shuttle*
2008 stats: 49 tackles, 15 assists, 3.5 TFL, 1.0 sack, 3-77-1 interceptions, 12 PBU, 1 forced fumble, 20-528-1 kick returns, 25-464-2 punt returns
Who he is: A D3 standout at corner who was an incredibly effective punt returner (65-1,075-5). Signed by the Jaguars out of Wheaton, he was a final cut. He’s a long shot for any CB work, but has to be considered a contender for the return specialist job because of his outstanding stop-start run skills. If it doesn’t work out, he already has a contract to play with the CFL’s Toronto Argonauts.
Marlon Favorite DT LSU
Numbers: 6007/317, 1.74 ten, 2.66 twenty, 5.09 forty, 26 reps, 18.5-inch vertical, 7’0 broad jump, 5.27 shuttle, 8.02 three-cone*
2008 stats: 9 tackles, 19 assists, 3.5-14 TFL, 2.0-13 sacks, 2 PBU
Who he is: The Bills cut Favorite to make room for former Colts halfback Chad Simspon, so I like to think of it as a trade. Favorite is a hard-working guy with a great first step, but he appears to be lacking functional strength and pass-rushing technique. Because of his gifts, he has been signed by the Panthers, Rams, Chiefs, Seahawks, Saints and Bills in less than a calendar year. And because of his liabilities, he has been cut by all of them. Favorite is a good guy who graduated early and is a talented singer (performing under the name “Big Fav”), so I’m rooting for him. But until I see something new, he looks like a rotational injury replacement type to me.
*all numbers except Favorite’s reps are from Pro Days, not the Combine
In other news:
• It looks very much like third-round pick Kevin Thomas will miss his rookie season, and potentially even more. It’s a hard break for the kid, and it puts the team in a bind, too. Although the next man down on the depth chart would appear to be Terrail Lambert or draftee Ray Fisher, Thomas spot as No. 4 corner will more likely be taken by whichever of the corps of unknowns – Brandon King, Thad Turner, Jordan Hemby or Ittersagen. Lambert just isn’t a natural coverage guy, and I think Fisher is just too small and inexperienced at the position. This is a vital spot. Consider that the Titans’ No. 4 receiver is dynamic rookie Damian Williams, the Texans’ is wily David Anderson, the Jaguars’ is rapidly improving Jarrett Dillard and there are far more frightening options at that spot on the teams the Colts will meet in the playoffs.
• While I think it’s significant that Brandon James was given a receiver’s number (12) instead of a halfback’s, I don’t think it is that Trevor Anderson was given a linebacker’s (56), not an end’s. I also think James (Brandon, not Javarris) will be one of the most interesting players to watch in camp and the preseason.
Jordan Sisco WR Regina
Numbers: 5115/212, 1.56 ten, 2.59 twenty, 4.50 forty, 8 reps, 34-inch vertical, 9-7 broad jump, 4.38 shuttle, 9-inch hands, 29 7/8-inch arms*
2009 stats: 52-700-2 recieving, 25-74-0 rushing, 1-0-0-0-0 passing, 1-0-0 punt returns
Who he is: Another raw Canadian receiving prospect, so his best shot would appear to be the practice squad. Hope’s nowhere near the athlete Sam Giguere is, but appears to be a smoother receiver with good football intelligence. Unfortunately, he has no return experience.
Pete Ittersagen CB Wheaton
Numbers: 5102/189, 4.47 forty, 18 reps, 37-inch vertical, 9’10 broad jump, 6.60 three-cone, 4.32 shuttle*
2008 stats: 49 tackles, 15 assists, 3.5 TFL, 1.0 sack, 3-77-1 interceptions, 12 PBU, 1 forced fumble, 20-528-1 kick returns, 25-464-2 punt returns
Who he is: A D3 standout at corner who was an incredibly effective punt returner (65-1,075-5). Signed by the Jaguars out of Wheaton, he was a final cut. He’s a long shot for any CB work, but has to be considered a contender for the return specialist job because of his outstanding stop-start run skills. If it doesn’t work out, he already has a contract to play with the CFL’s Toronto Argonauts.
Marlon Favorite DT LSU
Numbers: 6007/317, 1.74 ten, 2.66 twenty, 5.09 forty, 26 reps, 18.5-inch vertical, 7’0 broad jump, 5.27 shuttle, 8.02 three-cone*
2008 stats: 9 tackles, 19 assists, 3.5-14 TFL, 2.0-13 sacks, 2 PBU
Who he is: The Bills cut Favorite to make room for former Colts halfback Chad Simspon, so I like to think of it as a trade. Favorite is a hard-working guy with a great first step, but he appears to be lacking functional strength and pass-rushing technique. Because of his gifts, he has been signed by the Panthers, Rams, Chiefs, Seahawks, Saints and Bills in less than a calendar year. And because of his liabilities, he has been cut by all of them. Favorite is a good guy who graduated early and is a talented singer (performing under the name “Big Fav”), so I’m rooting for him. But until I see something new, he looks like a rotational injury replacement type to me.
*all numbers except Favorite’s reps are from Pro Days, not the Combine
In other news:
• It looks very much like third-round pick Kevin Thomas will miss his rookie season, and potentially even more. It’s a hard break for the kid, and it puts the team in a bind, too. Although the next man down on the depth chart would appear to be Terrail Lambert or draftee Ray Fisher, Thomas spot as No. 4 corner will more likely be taken by whichever of the corps of unknowns – Brandon King, Thad Turner, Jordan Hemby or Ittersagen. Lambert just isn’t a natural coverage guy, and I think Fisher is just too small and inexperienced at the position. This is a vital spot. Consider that the Titans’ No. 4 receiver is dynamic rookie Damian Williams, the Texans’ is wily David Anderson, the Jaguars’ is rapidly improving Jarrett Dillard and there are far more frightening options at that spot on the teams the Colts will meet in the playoffs.
• While I think it’s significant that Brandon James was given a receiver’s number (12) instead of a halfback’s, I don’t think it is that Trevor Anderson was given a linebacker’s (56), not an end’s. I also think James (Brandon, not Javarris) will be one of the most interesting players to watch in camp and the preseason.
Thursday, May 6, 2010
Cuts
The Colts cut tight end Jamie Petrowski and defensive end Rudolph Hardie. Both were considered legitimate prospects, but were made redundat by the Colts' draft and free agent signees. Best of luck to both.
Monday, May 3, 2010
Roy Hall cut
Well, at least that's one fewer candidates for the fifth receiver job. Sorry it didn't work out, Roy.
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