Crystal ballin'

My guesses at who’ll start at which positions for the Colts on opening day in 2011. That is, if the season ever starts (and, of course, barring injury).

QB Peyton Manning

Sure he’s a free agent. And I’m a soccer fan.

RB Joseph Addai

But he’s just keeping the seat warm; Delone Carter will take over as the lead back before too long

WR1/SE Reggie Wayne

Reports of his demise have been greatly exaggerated

WR2/FL Pierre Garçon

Should bounce back after mildly disappointing 2010 season

WR3/SB Austin Collie

If he’s healthy he’s a major weapon – if not, look for Blair White to leapfrog Anthony Gonzalez for this spot

TE Dallas Clark

No question, even though Jacob Tamme was very impressive filling in last season

H-B/FB Brody Eldridge

I’m sure lots of people would like to see Tamme here, but with all the questions on the offensive line, the team needs blocking more than yet another short- to medium-range receiver

LT Anthony Castonzo

He’s everything you think he is, but rookie tackles almost always struggle at first

LG Charlie Johnson

Back at his natural position, Charlie helps out Castonzo

C Jeff Saturday

One last hurrah before this position turns to chaos

RG Ben Ijalana

This could just be an audition for his future at tackle, or it could be his home in the NFL

RT Jeff Linkenbach (above)

Forget his horrible games at guard, he graded out as the Colts’ best tackle in 2010 in my book

RDE Dwight Freeney

Doesn’t appear to be slowing down

RDT Drake Nevis

Going out on a limb here as it usually takes rookie defensive tackles a while to get their feet wet, but the Colts seem fed up with the alternatives – Anthony Johnson, Daniel Muir and Eric Foster

LDT Fili Moala

Looks like he gets it after a pretty good second season

LDE Robert Mathis

See RDE

RLB Clint Session

This spot is conditional; even if Session re-signs, he’ll have to fight off hard-charging soph Kavell Conner

MLB Gary Brackett

One more season before he makes way for Pat Angerer

LLB Pat Angerer

The future in the middle is too good to keep off the field now

RCB Jerraud Powers

A proven commodity

LCB Kelvin Hayden

Gets No. 1 spot on rep, previous seasons but could find himself in trouble if he falters or gets hurt

3rdCB Justin Tryon

Excellent but undersized cover man should excel against slots

SS Melvin Bullitt

He’s not the obvious answer everyone thinks he is – even if he re-signs, he’ll have to fight off youngsters David Caldwell and Brandon King

FS Antoine Bethea

Ever the stalwart

Armyoftwoairsoft said: “Moore always reminded me of the grand old guy who everybody loved too much to tell that he was repeating the same stories. Peyton has absorbed all of Moore’s offense and will have enough clout to keep the parts that he likes. Time for some new ideas.”

I could not agree more.

Mrcrayz888 said: ‘Moore’s offense hasn't been able to operate effectively in the past few years because of a lack of running game threat and a lack of a down-field threat (Harrison's fall off, Garçon’s shoddy hands, lack of pass pro time). Hopefully, with increased talent along the O-line we’ll see some of that come back. Got a few ideas of possible write-ups since we’re in lock-out mode. Love your analysis! Mike Pollak – chances he’s a better NFL OC than he's been at OG? Jacques McClendon – chances he challenges for a starting OG spot this season, or did that go out the window with the drafting of Ijalana? Jaimie Thomas – in the mix at OG or failed project? Joe Reitz – activated late because they believe in his talent or just cause they wanted another healthy OT (even though Link and Toudouze clearly were there for a reason)?”

1) Pollak at center? Yeah, that was his college position, but he has not shown enough functional strength to be a player at any o-line position. Maybe we’ll see something this season, but it looks like the clock is running out on him.

2) Ijalana’s presence certainly makes things tougher for McClendon et al, but don’t count him out. He played fairly well as a short-yardage tight end last season. The problem with McClendon is that he’s slow footed and may never be an NFL quality pass blocker at any position. Ijalana is a rookie from a relatively small school and only ever played tackle in college. If he’s not ready, and Charlie isn’t signed it’s not out of the question McClendon could have a bigger role – even as a short-term starter.

3) Thomas is a very similar player to McClendon, maybe a bit quicker but not as strong. He’s farther back experience-wise, though, so it’ll be harder for him to make a starting bid.

4) Bit of both with Reitz. They needed any warm body at OT, but they also liked him, having scouted him before the draft. He’s an athlete to be sure, but is he a football player? That remains to be seen, but it’ll be fun to watch him in camp.

No Moore of that guy

Readers of ColtPlay and my previous Colt-oriented spoutings-off will know I’ve never been aTom Moore guy. I always found his offenses predictable, archaic and prone to break down in pressure situations. The fact is, the Colts rode Peyton Manning’s right arm since the day he pulled a jersey over his head and in all likelihood would have put up similar, if not better, numbers in any modern(-ish) offensive scheme.

People say Moore is a great guy; I don’t doubt it, and I wish him the best. But I’m also glad there’s a chance that the new offensive co-ordinator will tailor the attack to his personnel better, adjust when unforeseen circumstances (like Manning’s aching bursa sac or Tony Ugoh’s abject, almost historic, failure at left tackle) affect the personnel, bring some unpredictability to the attack and have a short-yardage and goal-line package that doesn’t look like Mouse Davis’Rick Astley-era run-and-shoot.

Clyde Christensen is his replacement. I mean, Christensen was officially the OC in 2010, but it was still Moore’s offense. Expect changes to be slight again this year as the Colts take great pride in continuity and have no desire to alienate their veterans with a whole new system.

Christenson’s only other experience as the top offensive guy happened in 2001 when he was OC under Tony Dungy in Tampa. The Bucs went 9-7 and had the 15th-ranked offense. It was kind of a hard-luck season with a past-his-prime "bad" Brad Johnson (who was never that great anyway) at quarterback. Halfback Warrick Dunn suffered an injury that robbed him, and the running game, of any quickness. But Christensen, to his credit, did adjust his offense to exploit the talents of Mike Alstott, an altogether very different back, going 7-4 after a 2-3 start. Although the Bucs went 12-4 and won the Super Bowl the next season under Jon Gruden’s staff, it should be noted that the offense (under Bill Muir, who was at one point a Coltsdefensive coordinator) actually fell statistically and finished 18th in the league.

It was an offense that would not be unfamiliar to Colts fans with many multiple-receiver and two-tight end formations, but it was also one that saw the use of an actually fullback (Jameel Cook, memba him?) and the odd trick play.

So what do I see in 2011? More of the same basic Moore-style offense, but perhaps an added ability to bring different looks in situations that require them, and maybe a surprise or two.

***

So Drake Nevis says he weighs 308. Great. But don’t expect him to play any differently than he did at LSU. And the same reasons he was 294 at the Combine will make him 294 on game day. Heck, I thought he’d be closer to 285.

***

Ben Ijalana said that the Colts spoke with him about playing guard as a rookie. Many would assume that it means they will be giving Ryan Diem one last shot, so that the Colts would in all likelihood line up Diem-Ijalana-Saturday-Charlie-Castonzo to make a veteran-rookie sandwich. Believe all the hype about Castonzo, but he’ll need help as a rookie (they all do), so expect to seeBrody Eldridge play a lot of snaps, particularly as the big rook gets his feet wet.

But it may not actually be Diem on the right side. Jeff Linkenbach had some tough times as a rookie last year – particularly when he started at right guard against the Bengals in Week 10 – but when he played tackle, he did not do badly at all. I’d direct all doubters to Week 14 against the Titans when he started at left tackle and played much better than Charlie ever did at that position, and especially the Wild Card loss to the Jets. You may not want to look at the game tape again, but in that game, Linkenbach started at right tackle and, for my money, graded out as the Colts best o-lineman.

***

Chris Rucker is staying at corner. I thought so.

Is there a safety in these numbers?

Every Colts fan can recall the horror they felt when they saw Aaron Francisco run out there to start the playoff game against the Jets. It’s unlikely that will ever occur again, but who will be the Colts’ strong safety next season? Bob Sanders is a Charger, Melvin Bullitt is unsigned, Jamie Silva is unsigned and on crutches and the draft didn’t bring in any obvious contenders. Here’s a look at the men who would be the Colts’ strong safety.

23 Al Afalava

Height: 5107, weight: 207, 40-yard dash: 4.47, 20-yard dash: 2.57, 10-yard dash: 1.52, Bench press: 25, vertical jump: 40, long jump: 10’5, shuttle: 4.07, three-cone: 6.60

2010 stats: 3 special-teams tackles, 1 special-teams assist in four games with the Colts

Comments: A former sixth-round draft pick of the Bears, Afalava started a few games there but was cut and became a Colt. Considered a big run stopper who has problems with coverage, he is better known as a special teamer than a safety.

Did he know the shame of being on the roster when the Colts started Aaron Francisco against the Jets?: Yes

Contract status: Unsigned

Chance of starting for the Colts on Sept. 11th: Slim

30 David Caldwell

Height: 5105, weight: 212, 40-yard dash: 4.58, 20-yard dash: 2.60, 10-yard dash: 1.52, Bench press: 24, vertical jump: 39 1/2, long jump: 10’10, shuttle: 4.07, three-cone: 6.69

2010 stats: None (no preseason stats)

Comments: This promising small school prospect missed his entire rookie season to injury. He certainly has the athleticism to make noise at the position, and his college production was phenomenal.

Did he know the shame of being on the roster when the Colts started Aaron Francisco against the Jets?: No

Contract status: Signed through 2012

Chance of starting for the Colts on Sept. 11th: Not bad

33 Melvin Bullitt

Height: 6011, weight: 201, 40-yard dash: 4.48, 20-yard dash: 2.55, 10-yard dash: 1.50, Bench press: 15, vertical jump: 40 1/2, long jump: 10’5, shuttle: 3.97, three-cone: 6.90

2010 stats: 10 tackles, 3 assists, 1 special-teams tackle, 1-0-0 interception, 1 pass defensed, 1 special-teams assist in four games/three starts with the Colts

Comments: A former college linebacker and undrafted free agent, Bullitt has been pressed into starting duty for long stretches due to the spotty durability of Bob Sanders. While his six interceptions in 48 career games has made him a favorite among Colts fans, he’s far from an elite player in either pass defense or run stopping. His demands for a long-term contract are unlikely to have endeared him to management, but his career with the Colts makes him the favorite to start.

Did he know the shame of being on the roster when the Colts started Aaron Francisco against the Jets?: No

Contract status: Unsigned

Chance of starting for the Colts on Sept. 11th: Likely

35 Ken Hamlin

Height: 6024, weight: 209, 40-yard dash: 4.61, 20-yard dash: 2.71, 10-yard dash: 1.59, Bench press: 16, vertical jump: 33, long jump: 9’9, shuttle: 3.92, three-cone: 6.80

2010 stats: 1 tackle, 2 assists, 1-0-0 interception, 1-0-0 fumble recovery in seven games with the Ravens, no stats in two games with the Colts

Comments: A former second-round pick and Pro Bowler, Hamlin is at the very end of a career marred and shorted by severe injuries including a fractured skull. Although his intellect and experience put him in the right place to make a play when he can get there, his speed is a thing of the past and any lengthy amount of playing time would expose him as a liability, especially in coverage.

Did he know the shame of being on the roster when the Colts started Aaron Francisco against the Jets?: Yes

Contract status: Unsigned

Chance of starting for the Colts on Sept. 11th: Very slim

37 Brandon King

Height: 5096, weight: 195, 40-yard dash: 4.59, 20-yard dash: 2.62, 10-yard dash: 1.59, Bench press: 23, vertical jump: 36, long jump: 9’11, shuttle: 4.28, three-cone: 6.87

2010 stats: 1 special-teams tackle in four games with the Colts

Comments: An undrafted cornerback who played one year of safety in college, the Colts moved him back to safety out of necessity when injuries piled up. There was a lot of hype early in the season about him potentially starting for the Colts at safety after a fairly impressive preseason, but he played almost entirely on special teams before going on injured reserve.

Did he know the shame of being on the roster when the Colts started Aaron Francisco against the Jets?: No

Contract status: Signed through 2012

Chance of starting for the Colts on Sept. 11th: Not bad

38 Mike Newton

Height: 5101, weight: 197, 40-yard dash: 4.48, 20-yard dash: 2.55, 10-yard dash: 1.50, Bench press: 9, vertical jump: 41, long jump: 10’0, shuttle: 4.09, three-cone: 6.94

2010 stats: 1 assist, 3 special-teams tackles, 1 special-teams assist in 12 games with the Colts

Comments: A very good athlete who was very raw after playing in the Mid-American conference, Newton played primarily on special teams.

Did he know the shame of being on the roster when the Colts started Aaron Francisco against the Jets?: Yes

Contract status: Unsigned

Chance of starting for the Colts on Sept. 11th: Slim

40 Jamie Silva

Height: 5106, weight: 204, 40-yard dash: 4.79, 20-yard dash: 2.72, 10-yard dash: 1.58, Bench press: DNP, vertical jump: 32, long jump: 9’0, shuttle: 4.50, three-cone: 6.86

2010 stats: None

Comments: The book on Silva was that he was a great college player who was just too slow for the NFL. But in limited appearances on both special teams and defense, he has graded out very well. Still, depending on him for extended periods, let alone as a starter, is inviting disaster. Besides, his rehab is not going well and it’s unlikely he would be available on Opening Day.

Did he know the shame of being on the roster when the Colts started Aaron Francisco against the Jets?:

Contract status: Unsigned

Chance of starting for the Colts on Sept. 11th: Very slim

49 Chip Vaughn

Height: 6013, weight: 221, 40-yard dash: 4.42, 20-yard dash: 2.57, 10-yard dash: 1.49, Bench press: 21, vertical jump: 37, long jump: 10’5, shuttle: 4.12, three-cone: 7.03

2010 stats: 1 special-teams tackle in three games with the Colts

Comments: Much-heralded as a big-play guy at Wake Forest, Vaughn was drafted by the Saints in the fourth round of the 2009 draft. He missed his rookie season due to injury and was a final cut the following season. He was picked up and dropped by the Eagles before landing with the Colts and playing a little bit on special teams. The book on him is that he’s a good run stuffer, but not much of a coverage guy and one who can be faked easily.

Did he know the shame of being on the roster when the Colts started Aaron Francisco against the Jets?:

Contract status: Signed though 2011

Chance of starting for the Colts on Sept. 11th: Slim

• “Bill Polian” asked my opinion of Wisconsin QB Scott Tolzien, indicating he believed him to be a better prospect than Curtis Painter. Well, to tell the truth Tolzein reminds me of the man Painter replaced, fellow Wisconsin alum Jim Sorgi. Smart but athletically limited, Tolzein looks like a career backup in the NFL. But that, of course, means I think he’s already way ahead of Painter.

• Blue MD suggested some undrafted free agents, here are my takes on them:

DeAndre McDaniel SS Clemson: Interesting prospect, there are serious holes in his game but there’s also a lot to work with. But keep in mind that his arrest and suspension came from beating up his girlfriend, not backing into a parked car in a 7-11 parking lot. His 4.67 forty didn’t impress me either. I’d probably pass on him.

Deunta Williams FS North Carolina: A hot-and-cold player who can hit and cover, but makes some bad reads, takes some poor angles and can be fooled. With good coaching he might blossom. His suspension doesn’t bother me (he seems like a decent kid), but his leg injury sure does. Could be a guy you stash on the practice squad if his health checks out.

Dom DeCicco SS Pittsburgh: Great athlete, tough guy, big hitter but is absolutely lost in coverage. He could, as Blue MD suggests be converted to a weakside ’backer, but looks more like a career special teamer and blitz/short-yardage specialist. Worth a look? Sure. Worth a roster spot? I don’t know.

Cedric Thornton DT Southern Arkansas: To tell you the truth, I have seen very little of this guy. He was tremendous in 2009, but was limited by injuries and constant double-teaming in 2010. He’s very raw, even when you consider him a D2 prospect, but has potential. Looks like another practice squad guy you hope develops.

Weslye Saunders TE South Carolina: No thanks, kid’s a brat, won’t work out with the Colts.

I'm a stat geek and proud of it

So Bill Polian is telling all us “stat geeks” that the Colts running game has been quietly effective. Uh huh. If that’s the case, then why did he spend two firsts, a fourth and a sixth on halfbacks and a first, three seconds (one of which cost a first), a fifth, two sixths and two sevenths on offensive linemen in the last five drafts when the defense has been pretty lacking in talent? I’m not even gonna get started on his pulling Dominic Rhodes out of whatever museum of tired old halfbacks he was on display in. I get his point that people are misinterpreting the stats and that the running game is just there to set up and augment the run – but it’s not doing it nearly as well as it should.

• Speaking of halfbacks, it’s a position that seems to be a flux. I know the Colts will invite Joseph Addai back, but there is no way they will offer him a long-term contract. Not only is he not worth it, but they just don’t do that. His return in 2011 is i think better than 50-50, and the longer the lockout goes on the better it is, but I think you won’t see him in Indy in 2012 or beyond. Same with dammit Donald Brown. Not only has he been a spectacular failure as a blocker, but he hasn’t done much as a runner. He’s a pretty decent receiver, but adds nothing as a return man. He has one year to turn it around, but I don’t see it happening. After that, there’s Mike Hart, a free agent unlikely to be re-signed, Javarris James, a decent spare part, and Devin Moore, who is a halfback in name only (it would surprise me if this not-too-durable return specialist saw a dozen snaps on offense in any given season). Which means a lot is expected from fourth-round pick Delone Carter. I hope he’s up to it.

• That reminds me of my worries in the return game. The Colts tried a number of people at the position with little success. Moore and Justin Tryon returned kicks adequately, but neither was special, Moore doesn’t seem durable and Tryon will be busy as the Colts’ slot corner. On punts, the Colts used Jerraud Powers and Blair White with similarly unspectacular results. Powers is a starting corner and White, though sure handed, is no burner. The draft added no return prospects, so expect the Colts to shop for undrafted and street free agents. Recent rule changes have reduced the draft value of kick returners (but not punt returners), so there are more than a few available. Here are some I like:

Phillip Livas (left)

WR Louisiana Tech 5073/179/4.43

2010 return stats: 35-862-1 (24.63) on kicks, 12-186-1 (15.50) on punts

Career return stats: 107-2,758-4 (25.78) on kicks, 43-587-4 (13.65) on punts

Comment: A tiny slot receiver who will need to return kicks and/or punts to get a pay packet playing football, sees the end zone

Shaky Smithson

WR Utah 5110/202/4.65

2010 return stats: 21-507-0 (24.14) on kicks, 30-572-2 (19.07) on punts

Career return stats: 43-1,050-0 (24.42) on kicks, 43-695-2 (16.16) on punts

Comment: He’s not straight-line fast, but has electric moves and incredible balance. His forty time and lack of experience on offense kept him from being drafted.

Derrick Locke

HB Kentucky 5082/188/4.37

2010 return stats: 15-395-0 (26.33) on kicks, 1-8-0 (8.00) on punts

Career return stats: 54-1,464-2 (27.11) on kicks, 1-8-0 (8.00) on punts

Comment: Undersized and oft-injured halfback is a blazer who had a great deal of collegiate success returning kicks and should be able to handle punts.

Leon Berry

WR Mississippi State 6001/205/e4.52

2010 return stats: 14-375-1 (26.79) on kicks, 0-0-0 (0.00) on punts

Career return stats: 52-1,390-2 (26.73) on kicks, 9-69-0 (7.67) on punts

Comment: Limited receiving prospect, but a bona fide returner if he can stay healthy

Jock Sanders

WR West Virginia 5061/181/4.50

2010 return stats: 12-299-0 (24.92) on kicks, 8-86-0 (10.75) on punts

Career return stats: 22-515-0 (23.41) on kicks, 31-281-0 (9.06) on punts

Comment: Incredibly quick but tiny receiver will have to make his NFL living as a returner

Ricardo Lockette

WR Fort Valley State 6021/211/4.34

2010 return stats: 10-214-0 (21.40) on kicks, 0-0-0 (0.00) on punts

Career return stats: 18-436-1 (24.22) on kicks, 0-0-0 (0.00) on punts

Comment: Lightning-fast track star has little football experience and once tested positive for high testosterone levels

• Sports Illustrated’s Andrew Perloff predicts that the Colts will draft Miami safety Ray Ray Armstrong with the No. 25 pick in the 2012 first round. Makes sense. Playoff run, no Super Bowl. Desperately seeking a run stopper, and Armstrong looks to come out after his junior season.

• Day 1 offensive line? From right to left, my guess is Charlie-Ijalana-Saturday-DeVan-Castonzo. But Devan’s name is written in pencil. Lightly. And I have a back-up eraser.

• Everybody in the media loves the Colts’ draft class. That worries me.

• Mrcrayz888 points out that the Colts have lots of strong safety prospects under contract or a phone call away. He's right, of course, but I'm not sold on any of them.

Perception vs. reality

Quarterback

What the media said: It’s time to find Peyton Manning’s replacement.

What happened: The Colts kicked the tires on some major prospects like Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick (remember, they had also worked out Mark Sanchez back in ’09), but didn’t enter the ridiculously inflated quarterback draft market. Rather than spend a high draft pick, the Colts went without.

What’s next: They’ll invite a camp arm or two, but they will have to survive with Curtis Painter as Manning’s backup for one more year, and find Manning’s heir apparent when he’s closer to necessary.

Runningback

What the media said: What? Joseph Addai, Donald Brown and Mike Hart? That’s enviable depth that is.

What happened: Actually, since both Addai and Hart are free agents and Brown sucks, this was a need position. The Colts drafted Syracuse’s Delone Carter in the fourth round.

What’s next: Now that I’m over my shock and childish rage that the Colts drafted Carter instead of a speed back, I’m pretty down with the plan. The Colts haven’t had a truly tough inside runner in years and Carter will change that. Though he offers almost no breakaway threat, I would be surprised if he ends up getting more carries than any other Colts back in 2011, even if Addai is re-signed. There’s a lot of BenJarvus Green-Ellis in this kid, the Colts just need a Danny Woodhead to go with him.

Receivers

What the media said: Reggie Wayne is ancient! Injuries! Contracts! Need this now!

What happened: In fact, the Colts are quite deep here, but could definitely have used a home run threat. None fell to them and other needs had to be filled, so it didn’t happen.

What’s next: The Colts go to war with Wayne, Pierre Garçon, Austin Collie, Blair White, Taj Smith and, perhaps, Anthony Gonzalez.

Tight ends

What the media said: Nothing much.

What happened: Nothing much.

What’s next: With star Dallas Clark returning, Jacob Tamme having emerged and Brody Eldridge having solidified the blocking role, the Colts are fine here for now.

Offensive line

What the media said: An upgrade here is necessary, but perhaps not as much as the defensive line.

What happened: The Colts saw sense and grabbed two potential Day 1 starters – Anthony Castonzo and Ben Ijalana – with their first two picks.

What’s next: It would be an incredible shock if Castonzo does not take over the left tackle spot immediately. Ijalana could start at right tackle or right guard, depending on the fate of Ryan Diem and where they want to put Charlie Johnson (if he re-signs). If everything falls into place, the Colts could be secure at four of five offensive line positions, whereas they were sure at only one heading into it. The remaining spot – probably right guard if Ijalana settles in at right tackle and Johnson at left guard – would be an interesting fight between Jacques McClendon, Mike Pollak, Kyle DeVan, Jamey Richard, Jamie Thomas, Jeff Linkenbach, Mike Tepper and potentially others.

Defensive line

What the media said: Get us a fat dude! Any fat dude! Preferably in the first two picks.

What happened: The Colts actually looked at some big guys before the draft, but ultimately found them not worth the picks they would require. Instead, they drafted undersized overachiever Drake Nevis in the third round.

What’s next: My gut says that Nevis is a better overall prospect than Fili Moala was, but like Moala, he will need a year to get acquainted with the system. Until then, look for the Colts to rotate him in with Mookie Johnson, Daniel Muir and perhaps DeMario Pressley.

Linebackers

What the media said: Some made pleas for linebacking help, few took them seriously

What happened: Not much.

What’s next: Looks like Clint Session will return, which would make Pat Angerer, Kavell Connor and Phillip Wheeler fight for the strongside spot if Gary Brackett returns in the middle. Otherwise, Angerer is the middle man.

Cornerbacks

What the media said: Well, as this is a position on defense, many commentators believed the Colts needed a player here.

What happened: The Colts are actually fairly deep at corner, but added Chris L Rucker in the sixth because his upside was just too great to pass up.

What’s next: There are rumors that Rucker could wind up at safety, a position of greater need, but I’ll believe that when I see it. Instead I think he starts at the bottom and works his way up at corner.

Safeties

What the media said: Wait, Bob Sanders is gone? It’s an emergency!

What happened: The Colts looked at a few safeties, but didn’t draft any.

What’s next: It looks like re-signing Melvin Bullitt is more of a priority than it was pre-draft. That is, unless Mike Newton is way better than I think he is.