Carter, Rucker and the whole thing

As delighted as I was with the first three Colts picks, I’m a little less so with the other two.

While they definitely needed a halfback, I’m pretty sure Delone Carter is the wrong one. Not that he’s a bad back, not at all – he runs tough, has a low center of gravity, can catch and block. But he’s one of those one-speed guys who lack an extra gear. Okay, enough with the hoary football clichés, my problem with Carter is that he’s just more of the same. All the backs the Colts have had since Edgerrin James’ ACL injury have all been the same guy with varying degrees of this or that quality. But all of them have lacked that kind of spark, the magic that stops defenders in their cleats and gives defensive coordinators nightmares. Wait, more clichés? Yes, but they are apt. Carter will help carry the load, but he won’t be special, he won’t return kicks with great aplomb and he won’t make the Colts’ offense any more exciting – more efficient, perhaps, but not more exciting. Polian has got to realize that the model for the perfect halfback is not James Mungro.

I’m being unduly harsh, of course, but what bothers me is that there were so many speed/moves backs available, and now they have jobs elsewhere. I’m sure Carter will have a long and productive career in Indy, and he does have a rep as a strong between-the-tackles runner – they could definitely use that. Critics have pointed out that he holds the ball in a strange way, but it didn’t lead to fumbling at Syracuse, so I doubt it will in the NFL.

The numbers:

Height: 5085, Weight: 222, 10-yard dash: 1.54 (1.51 at pro day), 20-yard dash: 2.58 (2.53 at pro day), 40-yard dash: 4.54 (4.46 at pro day), Bench press: 27, Vertical jump: 37, Long jump: 10’0 (10’1 at pro day), Shuttle: 4.07, Three-cone: 6.92, Arm length: 31, Hand length: 9.5

The final pick was another good player who might get lost in the shuffle for the Colts, although there is an outside chance he could change positions. And – in a rarity for the Colts – he has serious character questions.

Chris L Rucker is a Michigan State cornerback who was once thought so highly of, he was projected by some as a second rounder. He certainly has the size and strength. He’s not quite smooth enough in coverage to be considered elite, but should be better than average in most situations, especially in the zone-friendly Colts defense. His real skills are in the initial jam, knocking receivers off their routes and tackling. Those abilities could translate well to safety, where the Colts needs are far more pressing than cornerback. More likely, though, Rucker will not play much on defense, at least at first, concentrating instead on special teams and getting better at whichever position they put him at.

I have seen Rucker a few time on tape and was impressed. Check out the Capital One Bowl, in which he spent much of his time isolated one-on-one against Julio Jones (the guy the Falcons traded two firsts, a second and two fourths to pick). Although Rucker was playing hurt, he limited Jones to three catches for 49 yards (only really getting beat once) in an incredibly lopsided affair in which the Tide rolled all over the Spartans.

Rucker’s problems with the law stem from a 2009 brawl that involved several Spartans’ players. He pleaded guilty and was sentenced to probation with the proviso that he not consume alcohol. Less than a year later, he was arrested for DUI, and spent eight days in jail. If you read the official details of his arrest here and here, you get an idea of what happened that night, and Rucker comes off as not that bad a person. I’ve seen some people call him things like a “thug” online, but I’m not sure those two incidents indicate that he’s a bad guy. Of course, they don’t indicate he’s squeaky clean, either. I think he’s a pretty ordinary young man who made a couple of mistakes and is unlikely to repeat them. History shows us that neither Polian nor the Colts are at all interested in problem children, and I’m sure they did much more homework on him than most blog posters and forum commentators. Late note: I also find it interesting that, although Carter was charged with assault after punching out a student at an on-campus snowball fight, nobody called him a "thug" or "character risk."

Is Rucker a terrible pick? Certainly not. He’s a very talented player who can help on specials right away, and perhaps grow into a starting-quality defender. That’s not bad for a sixth rounder. But he’s not a true safety, certainly not the big bopper the Colts could use there, and he’s not a returner, which is a position they could also stand to upgrade.

The numbers:

Height: 6004, Weight: 195, 10-yard dash: 1.65, 20-yard dash: 2.68, 40-yard dash: 4.54, Bench press: 13, Vertical jump: 33.5, Long jump: 9’11, Shuttle: 4.35, Three-cone: 6.87, Arm length: 33, Hand length: 9

To sum it all up, I would have to say that I am more satisfied with this draft than any the Colts have had since 1999. Anthony Castonzo looks like a bastion of solidity at left tackle, Ben Ijalana should join him and start from Day 1 elsewhere on the line, while Drake Nevis should get some quality reps on the defensive line and contribute right away. There’s no question that the Colts needed all three of those guys. Carter is not my favorite halfback, but should help carry the load and get those tough yards. Rucker is a bit of a risk, but it’s hard not to like his upside.

Some things on my wish list did not get fulfilled – most notably, a starting quality strong safety, a young quarterback and a return specialist who can also make plays on offense – but it’s really hard to complain when you look at the Colts’ first three picks.

Nevis

Come on, did any of you really think the Colts would draft a giant space-eating defensive tackle? Instead, Polian stuck to the plan and selected Drake Nevis, a defensive tackle who has everything you want, except size. And he won’t get any bigger. And that’s just about the scouting report on him. Great kid, motor’s always running, uses his hands well, splits double teams, disrupts offensive plans, moves well both forward and side-to-side and tackles well. The only problem, as you may already have realized, is that he’s not very tall, and not very heavy. Which prompts the question – will he be able to do in the NFL what he did in college? I think the answer is yes and no. He is likely to show flashes, even stretches, of brilliance but will also be overpowered, overwhelmed and engulfed at inopportune times.

The numbers:

Height: 6005, Weight: 294, 10-yard dash: 1.67, 20-yard dash: 2.85, 40-yard dash: 5.06, Bench press: 31, Vertical jump: 30.5, Long jump: 9’4, Shuttle: 4.65, Three-cone: 7.71, Arm length: 31.5, Hand length: 9.375

So what’s left? Without a fifth or seventh pick, the Colts should still be able to pick up a decent safety and an offensive spark. Only five safeties have been selected so far (unfortunately, one of them was Jaiquan Jarrett, who is now Eagles’ property). Some notables who remain include: Tyler Sash, Da’Norris Searcy, Shiloh Keo and DeAndre McDaniel. And there are tons and tons of speedy offensive players left, like Kendall Hunter, Taiwan Jones, Da’Rel Scott, Jacquizz Rodgers, Edmund Gates or Denarius Moore. Searcy and Jones would really put a nice pair of exclamation marks on an already promising draft crop. But this is Bill Polian pulling the strings, and he hasn't drafted anyone out of the blue yet, so the picks could just as likely be Keanemana Silva and Chad Spann.

Ijalana

Wow. Again. I’m very impressed with the Colts for trading up, and agin they selected a very impressive player at a position of need. Ben Ijalana played left tackle in college, but because of his height (and now the presence of Anthony Castonzo on the roster) many are projecting him at guard. I see him more as a right tackle – I mean, he has 36-inch arms for Jiminy’s sake – with Charlie Johnson pushed inside to guard. Or it could go the other way, depending on Ijalana’s feet. The numbers:

Height: 6035, Weight: 317, 10-yard dash: 1.75, 20-yard dash: 2.93, 40-yard dash: 5.20, Bench Reps: DNP, Vertical jump: 25.5, Long jump: 8’9, Shuttle: 4.70, Three-cone: 7.75, Arm length: 36, Hand length: 10.5

The Colts are now minus a fifth rounder, but so what? Looks like they have two starters on the offensive line.

So what’s next? Safety? Receiver? Halfback? Defensive tackle? Quarterback? I’m thinking offensive gamebreaker. Jacquizz? Hunter? Jernigan?

Castonzo

All I can say is wow. The Colts drafted the best lineman in the draft. Anthony Castonzo is a tailor-made left tackle, at No. 22. If you look at all my mocks, you'll see I had Derek Sherrod (basically a poor man's Castonzo) because I was sure the 6'7 Rhodes Scholar candidate would have been long gone. Note: Sherrod was later astutely snatched up by the Super Bowl-champion Packers ten picks later.

I don't have much but praise for the pick. Sure he could add some weight and strength, but he has gained 90 pounds in the last four years (and the strength that comes with it), so another 15 or so on his frame wouldn't hurt. He starts from Day 1 and protects Peyton Manning's blindside until he retires.

The numbers:

Height: 6070, Weight: 311, 10-yard dash: 1.80, 20-yard dash: 2.92, 40-yard dash: 5.21, Bench press: 28, Vertical jump: 29½ , Long Jump: 8’9, Shuttle: 4.40, Three-cone: 7.25, Arm length: 34.5, Hand length: 10.625

So now what? I think the next pick could be an offensive play maker (Jerrel Jernigan?), another offensive lineman (Ben Ijalana?), a safety (Tyler Sash) or a defensive tackle (Drake Nevis). I'm also still seriously under the belief that Ricky Stanzi will be wearing blue.

1 Carolina Cam Newton QB 6’5 248 Auburn

It kind of had to happen, it’s the kind of risk that you need to take to build a winner, I think he’ll succeed

2 Denver Von Miller OLB 6’3 246 Texas A&M

He’s undersized, but they need a pass-rush in the worst way and seem to be following the LeBeau plan, that’s smart

3 Buffalo Marcell Dareus DT 6’3 319 Alabama

No brainer, they suck against the run and Dareus had the talent to be the top pick

4 Cincinnati A.J. Green WR 6’4 207 Georgia

I guess they have an idea who’ll play QB there (I should have known Brown would never give in to Carson palmer’s pouting), and they need to clear out the old guard

5 Arizona Patrick Peterson CB 6’0 219 LSU

Again, I believe they have a plan at QB that I don’t know about; Peterson is a great value, but he’s not the sure-thing the media had represented him as; a tremendous athlete, but not a natural at the position like Joe Haden is

6 Atlanta Julio Jones WR 6’3 220 Alabama

I know, I know, they are following the Polian plan of overwhelming your opponents with offense, but their pass rush is weak and is Jones really worth two first, a second and two fourths?

7 San Francisco Aldon Smith DE 6’5 255 Missouri

Nothing against Smith, but the Harbaughs are playing to get a great pick next season

8 Tennessee Jake Locker QB 6’3 231 Washington

I could not have wished for anything better; Locker simply lacks the accuracy and drive to be a big winner in the NFL

9 Dallas Tyron Smith OT 6’5 307 Southern California

Everyone knew this was going to happen; good value starts on the right side while learning the game then moves to left

10 Jacksonville Blaine Gabbert QB 6’4 234 Missouri

I have no idea why he lasted this long and they were smart to trade up to get him as it only cost them their second; no, he’s not Sam Bradford, but he’s better than David Garrard and Jake Locker and, in all likelihood, Cam Newton

11 Houston J.J. Watt DE 6’6 285 Wisconsin

They need help all over the defense, so they took the most solid prospect, boring but astute

12 Minnesota Christian Ponder QB 6’2 229 Florida State

Nice pick if they design the offense to his abilities and it looks like they will with Bill Musgrave at the helm

13 Detroit Nick Fairley DT 6’5 314 Auburn

This is great, they need corners badly, but how do you block Suh, Fairley and Vanden Bosch?

14 St. Louis Robert Quinn DE 6’4 265 North Carolina

Nice pick to have fall in your lap; still need receivers badly

15 Miami Mike Pouncey OG 6’5 303 Florida

As predicted by most everyone, fills a need

16 Washington Ryan Kerrigan DE 6’4 267 Purdue

So many holes to fill, so they just got a nice player, trading down shows they had no faith in this year’s crop of QBs

17 New England Nate Solder OT 6’8 319 Colorado

Immense potential, but will take a while to develop – they have the time

18 San Diego Corey Liuget DT 6’2 298 Illinois

Ho hum, nice player, nice pick

19 New York Giants Prince Amukamara CB 6’0 206 Nebraska

What a gift, he’s not really what they needed most, but how do you pass him up? More NFL-ready than Peterson in my opinion

20 Tampa Bay Adrian Clayborn DE 6’3 281 Iowa

We all knew they were drafting an end, Clayborn could be the piece that pushes them into the NFL’s elite

21 Cleveland Phil Taylor DT 6’4 355 Baylor

Smart trade, smart pick; the Browns are rebuilding and can use the extra picks, Taylor lines up next to Atyba Rubin inside to form a huge wall; receivers, ends come later

22 Indianapolis Anthony Castonzo OT 6’7 311 Boston College 1

Just what they needed

23 Philadelphia Danny Watkins OG 6’3 310 Baylor

Watkins represents a good choice anywhere he goes

24 New Orleans Cameron Jordan DE 6’4 287 California

Nice pick, but I think a speedier guy would have helped more (if there was one available)

25 Seattle James Carpenter OT 6’5 300 Alabama

They see something in him I don’t

26 Kansas City Jon Baldwin WR 6’5 230 Pittsburgh

A physical presence sure, but a No. 1 receiver? Maybe in the far off future

27 Baltimore Jimmy Smith CB 6’2 211 Colorado

Great player, but a character risk

28 New Orleans Mark Ingram HB 5’9 215 Alabama

29 Chicago Gabe Carimi OT 6’7 314 Wisconsin

They needed o-line help and he was the best of what was left

30 New York Jets Muhammad Wilkerson DT 6’5 300 Temple

Not really bulky enough to be a nose, and what they really needed was rush backers

31 Pittsburgh Cameron Heyward DE 6’5 294 Ohio State

They lucked out

32 Green Bay Derek Sherrod OT 6’5 321 Mississippi State

As did they

Just a few hours now

A look at a few last-minute prospects who have spoken with the Colts (mostly small schoolers)

Anthony Bratton SS Delaware

6001/213 Ten: 1.52 Twenty: 2.62 Forty: 4.50 Bench: 15 Vertical: 37 Long jump: 10’5 Shuttle: 4.09 Three-cone: 6.71

2011 stats: 55 tackles, 41 assists, 3-10 tackles for loss, 0.5-7 sacks, 2-3-0 interceptions, 12 passes defensed, 2 forced fumbles

Likely draft round: UDFA

Comment: Tough safety who’s much better going forward than back; troubles with coverage could lead to a special-teams-only career, but he has the skills and attitude to succeed there – has played some wide receiver and returner

Ron Parker FS Newberry

5117/206 Ten: 1.51 Twenty: 2.49 Forty: 4.35 Bench: 17 Vertical: 32 Long jump: 10’3 Shuttle: 4.15 Three-cone: 6.74

2011 stats: 45 tackles, 14 assists, 2-2 tackles for loss, 5-1-0 interceptions, 13 passes defensed, 3-72-1 fumble recoveries, 1 forced fumble

Likely draft round: 6th

Comment: Great coverage safety with ballhawking skills (11 picks in his last 18 games); unbelievably athletic but incredibly raw – a great pick for the future, but don’t expect much right away

Larry Dean OLB Valdosta State

5116/229 Ten: 1.50 Twenty: NA Forty: 4.50 Bench: 22 Vertical: 36.5 Long jump: 10’1 Shuttle: 4.37 Three-cone: 6.79

2011 stats: 49 tackles, 73 assists, 8.5-45, 1-6-1 interception, 3 passes defensed, 1-12-1 fumble recovery, 1 forced fumble, 1 blocked kick

Likely draft round: UDFA

Comment: Athletic, do-everything outside linebacker who is smaller than NFL teams want and could project to strong safety – eerily reminiscent of former Colt Jordan Senn, who has carved out a nice career with the Panthers

David Akinniyi DE North Carolina State

6035/254 Ten: 1.72 Twenty: 2.71 Forty: 4.79 Bench: 18 Vertical: 35 Long jump: 9’8 Shuttle: 4.46 Three-cone: 7.00

2011 stats: 12 tackles, 8 assists, 5-31 tackles for loss, 2.5-23 sacks, 1-0-0 fumble recovery, 1 forced fumble

Likely draft round: UDFA

Comment: Great kid, great athlete, played 5-technique at NC State but needs seasoning and development – had 141 tackles, 22 tackles for loss and 12 sacks in 34 games at Northeastern before transferring when the Huskies dropped football – could be a steal

Andrew Soucy DT Eastern Kentucky

6021/311 Ten: 1.75 Twenty: 3.09 Forty: 5.28 Bench: 32 Vertical: 30 Long jump: 8’9 Shuttle: 4.56 Three-cone: 7.59

2011 stats: 15 tackles, 13 assists, 9.5-42 tackles for loss, 4-30 sacks, 1-0-0 fumble recovery, 1 forced fumble, 1 blocked kick

Likely draft round: UDFA

Comment: Monstrously strong interior lineman who produced at low level of competition but has lots and lots to learn

Matt Szymanski K SMU

6017/205 numbers not important because he’s a kicker

2011 stats: 7-12 field goals, 32-32 extra points, 52-2,149-9 (14 in 20) punting, 19-1,249-5 kickoffs, 2-30-0 rushing

Likely draft round: UDFA

Comment: Big leg, likely to stick in the NFL as a kickoff specialist

Jake Laptad DE Kansas

6036/257 Ten: 1.75 Twenty: 2.82 Forty: 4.95 Bench: 20 Vertical: 31.5 Long jump: 9’3 Shuttle: 4.55 Three-cone: 7.75

2011 stats: 22 tackles, 16 assists, 8.5-38 tackles for loss, 4.5-27 sacks, 3 forced fumbles

Likely draft round: UDFA

Comment: Great guy, good performer who may lack athleticism for NFL

Cliff Matthews DE South Carolina

6034/257 Ten: 1.65 Twenty: 2.72 Forty: 4.81 Bench: 17 Vertical: 32 Long jump: 9’4 Shuttle: 4.37 Three-cone: 7.21

2011 stats: 30 tackles, 14 assists, 8.5-43 tackles for loss, 5.5-34 sacks, 2 passes defensed, 4 forced fumbles

Likely draft round: 5th

Comment: Great athlete who seems to lack any real dedication to the game, upside is high, downside is scary

Preston Dial TE Alabama

6021/238 did not participate in workouts after a serious knee injury

2011 stats: 25-264-5 receiving

Likely draft round: 7th

Comment: College fullback and tight end with receiving skills should translate into H-back for most offenses in the NFL, big-time special-teams contributor

Brian Maddox HB South Carolina

5101/232 Ten: 1.75 Twenty: 2.79 Forty: 4.83 Bench: 23 Vertical: 32.5 Long jump: 10’1 Shuttle: 4.65 Three-cone: 7.19

2011 stats: 74-391-3 rushing, 10-67-0 receiving,

Likely draft round: UDFA

Comment: Stocky, multipurpose back who could never win starting job with the Gamecocks

Chris Dieker QB Southern Illinois

6051/232 Ten: 1.69 Twenty: 2.82 Forty: 4.92 Bench: NA Vertical: 32 Long jump: 9’4 Shuttle: 4.44 Three-cone: 7.30

2011 stats: 256-158-1,816-15-11 passing, 96-272-6 rushing

Likely draft round: UDFA

Comment: Looked good (15-4 record as a starter) until breaking his collarbone as a junior and looking tentative as a senior; a student of the Manning brothers – looks like a camp arm at this point

• I’m increasing sure the Colts are after Iowa’s Ricky Stanzi, he has the look of a future starter to me

• Blue MD wants to know why the Colts seem to have no love for Kyle DeVan and tons for Donald Brown. He suggests that new running backs coach David Walker has something to do with Brown’s situation. I think the Colts have seen DeVan at his best and feel he’s eminently replaceable. But they invested a first-round pick in Brown, and almost certainly hope he can put something together now that he’s got his feet wet. Besides, Joseph Addai and Mike Hart are not under contract. If the season started today, the Colts would have just Brown, Javarris James and Devin Moore at halfback. Yikes.

• That reminds me, keep an eye on Pittsburgh halfback Dion Lewis. He’s only three years out of high school, tiny (5065/193) and not that fast (4.56c/4.47pd), but was a favourite of Walker’s when he coached him, and has some very shifty moves. Late rounder, but he’s better than Hart.

Just a few final, predraft thoughts

I like this article. In it, Polian speaks about how it takes a few years to evaluate prospects. He blames injuries for slowing both Mike Pollak (left) and Tony Ugoh’s development and goes on to say that it was Ugoh’s inability to recover that led to his eventual dismissal. He also says that although he thinks Pollak has contributed, his play has not been up to that standard of safety Melvin Bullitt or receiver Austin Collie. Kinda makes me think he might be leaning toward re-signing Bullitt. The flip side of Polian’s cogent argument is that if injuries derailed Ugoh and Pollak, then why is Collie, who was more severely injured than either, a paragon of player development?

• Peyton Manning admitted to throwing concussion-related baseline testing. No surprise. This is a fellow who had missed one snap due to injury in 12 seasons, and that was for a broken jaw. Clearly, playing is more important to him than his health.

• Am I nuts or could there really be five or six quarterbacks selected in the first round? Looks like the Colts will be shut out for a development guy early. Still, I think they take a flyer on North Carolina’s TJ Yates or a similar prospect later on.

• A final look at draft needs would have to include a starting left tackle and upgrades all over the offensive line and a home run hitter on offense either at halfback or receiver. The defense, as always, could use some beef up front and a new safety would be a boon.

• Have you heard of Scout.com’s Draft Muncher? They look at 46 mock drafts to determine who the experst think each team will select in the first round. As of this morning, 16 drafts had the Colts drafting Colorado’s Nate Solder, ten had Boston College’s Anthony Castonzo, seven had Illinois’ Corey Luiget, five had Wisconsin’s Gabe Carimi and four other players were also named at least once. I’m glad the pundits are leaning toward a left tackle, but I still like Mississippi State's Derek Sherrod better than Solder or Carimi and expect Castonzo to be gone by No. 22.

Last man scouted

As the draft draws nearer, it’s time to wrap up. Don’t go looking for the latest guy the Colts worked out in your draft books, but don’t be surprised if he gets drafted. Chris Posinski is a free safety from Wyoming, who is a bit stiff and straight-linish in coverage, but is a great open field tackler and an incredible all-around athlete. Check out his pro day numbers:

6010/20, Ten: 1.54, Twenty: 2.60, Forty: 4.39, Bench: 14, Vertical: 39.5, Long jump: 11’2, Shuttle: 4.28, Three-cone: 6.85

I don’t think he steps in and starts, but he could well be a valuable spare-part/special teamer who could eventually work his way into the lineup.

Happy predicting Colts fans. In our house, we have a pie riding on who gets the most hits in the first round.