Y’know, in spite of his reputation for trickery and deceit, Bill Polian usually gives none-too-subtle clues about who he’ll draft in the first round, or at least which position.
So if we look at what Polian has said about this draft:
1) He blamed the Super Bowl loss on the offensive line, and vowed to make it bigger and tougher. This is eerily reminiscent of what he said about the secondary after a playoff loss in 2004. Of course, in the 2005 draft he selected cornerbacks Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Hayden in the first and second rounds. So you would suppose that the top pick is a lock to be an offensive lineman, until …
2) When commenting on the depth of this draft, Polian pointed out that the linemen depth in this draft is so strong, it would allow the Colts to grab a skill-position player who had fallen below where he should be picked. So now, they won’t grab an offensive lineman?
The other way to tell what position he intends to draft is that he has a habit of clearing roster space for top picks, guys he thinks are locks to make the team. So here’s a position-by-position look at what the Colts have now:
Quarterbacks
Elite starter: Manning
Solid starter: None
Potential starter: None
Role-player/veteran reserve: None
Worthwhile prospects: Painter
Special teams/fringe prospects: Willy
Players lost: Sorgi
Summary: Whether or not the Colts draft a quarterback depends on a) how long they think Manning will last, and b) if they believe Painter is the answer at No. 2. I think Manning’s got five more seasons, and Polian’s history says he likes to grab starting QBs in the first half of the first round after the team bottoms out. So with that theory out, what about Painter? Like it or not, I think the Colts believe in him.
Polian factor: Avoids drafting QBs unless he has to.
Runningbacks
Elite starter: None
Solid starter: Addai
Potential starter: Brown
Role-player/veteran reserve: Hart, Simpson
Worthwhile prospects: None
Special teams/fringe prospects: Moore
Players lost: None
Summary: Even though I’m not completely sold on either Addai or Brown, I don’t think Polian would ever draft three first-round backs in five years.
Polian factor: Loves getting backs other people don’t like as much as he does.
Wide Receivers
Elite starter: Wayne
Solid starter: Gonzalez, Garcon, Collie
Potential starter: None
Role-player/veteran reserve: None
Worthwhile prospects: Smith, Giguere, Matthews, Guice
Special teams/fringe prospects: None
Players lost: Baskett
Summary: A dedicated return man could make sense here, but that’d prolly be a late-round thing. Adam Schefter says that coach Jim Caldwell is considering four-wide sets, which could open up a need for a No. 5 guy.
Polian factor: Stockpiles wideouts of all shapes and sizes.
Tight Ends
Elite starter: Clark
Solid starter: None
Potential starter: None
Role-player/veteran reserve: Robinson
Worthwhile prospects: Tamme, Santi, Cloherty, Petrowski
Special teams/fringe prospects: None
Players lost: None
Summary: It’s probably too early to replace Clark, but I’d like to see better prospects here than what they have. Robinson starts most games, but he’s not a “starter” in the sense most fans mean when they say it.
Polian factor: Prefers wide receivers pretending to be tight ends.
Tackles (assuming Charlie Johnson is not moved inside)
Elite starter: None
Solid starter: Diem
Potential starter: Johnson, Terry
Role-player/veteran reserve: None
Worthwhile prospects: Ugoh
Special teams/fringe prospects: Cadogan
Players lost: Federkeil, Toudouze
Summary: There’s not a lot of talent here. Diem is good, but nearing the end. Johnson is out of place at tackle, and Terry’s just too injury-prone. I’d like to see a first- or second-round pick here.
Polian factor: Tends to grab small-school prospects and hope they’ll get coached up.
Centers and Guards
Elite starter: Saturday
Solid starter: None
Potential starter: DeVan, Alleman
Role-player/veteran reserve: None
Worthwhile prospects: Pollak, Thomas, Richard
Special teams/fringe prospects: None
Players lost: Lilja
Summary: Saturday is still a top center, but also nearing the end of his career. DeVan surprised many in his first year as a starter, but is not a sure thing. Alleman has all the tools, but has yet to put them together. Pollak and Richard have seen some action, but have generally be found wanting; and Thomas is a projection. If the Colts don’t bring in a starting quality tackle (or Terry doesn’t step up), allowing them to shift Johnson back to his natural guard position, I’d like to see an early pick here. Even if that does happen, I’d still like to see some new blood here.
Polian factor: Tends to grab small-school prospects and hope they’ll get coached up. Prefers college centers to guards for both positions in the pros.
Defensive Ends
Elite starter: Freeney, Mathis
Solid starter: None
Potential starter: None
Role-player/veteran reserve: Dawson
Worthwhile prospects: Baldwin, Hardie, Chick
Special teams/fringe prospects: None
Players lost: Brock
Summary: There’s no emergency here, but Freeney and Mathis are both getting older and worn-down, and there’s no obvious replacement on the roster. They could go here in the first, but I’d rather they waited and gambled on a boom-or-bust guy. Actually, they’ve done that lots of times before and the only time it’s worked out has been Mathis.
Polian factor: Can’t get enough pass-rushers, tends to gamble on college production as opposed to size, Combine numbers.
Defensive Tackles
Elite starter: None
Solid starter: None
Potential starter: Muir, Johnson
Role-player/veteran reserve: Foster
Worthwhile prospects: Moala, Gill, King
Special teams/fringe prospects: None
Players lost: Johnson
Summary: Foster’s the best performer here by a wide margin, but would be best served playing fewer snaps. People are raving about Muir and Johnson, but they really looked no better than adequate. None of the prospects really excites me. There are two ways Polian could go on this, either: a) I just drafted two DTs in the second and fourth last year, or b) I expected Big Ed to start, Moala to contribute and Taylor to at least make the team. Unfortunately, I think he’ll stand mostly pat, lean on the top three and hope one of the prospects to pan out. They will most likely draft a DT, but probably late unless a real gem falls to them.
Polian factor: Drafts DTs only reluctantly, and then tends to admire speed and quickness over size and strength.
Outside Linebackers
Elite starter: None
Solid starter: Session
Potential starter: Wheeler
Role-player/veteran reserve: None
Worthwhile prospects: Glenn, Renkart
Special teams/fringe prospects: None
Players lost: Hagler
Summary: The Colts never seemed that comfortable starting Wheeler, and neither of the prospects are anywhere near starting. Expect one or two picks here.
Polian factor: Drafts them in great numbers, but rarely high.
Inside Linebackers
Elite starter: None
Solid starter: Brackett
Potential starter: None
Role-player/veteran reserve: None
Worthwhile prospects: Humber
Special teams/fringe prospects: None
Players lost: Keiaho
Summary: Brackett’s signed for a while, and Humber has some talent, but his services may be required outside. If the Colts draft a middle linebacker, he’ll probably also be able to play outside as well.
Polian factor: Drafts them rarely.
Cornerbacks
Elite starter: None
Solid starter: Hayden, Powers
Potential starter: Lacey
Role-player/veteran reserve: None
Worthwhile prospects: None
Special teams/fringe prospects: Lambert
Players lost: Jackson, Jennings, Rushing
Summary: The top three are fine, but that’s what they are – three. The Colts usually go into a season with five NFL-quality CBs if they can. Look for them to draft at least one, probably early. Polian factor: To Polian, happiness is a new cornerback; he drafts them in droves.
Safeties
Elite starter: Bethea
Solid starter: None
Potential starter: Sanders, Bullitt
Role-player/veteran reserve: Silva
Worthwhile prospects: None
Special teams/fringe prospects: None
Players lost: Francisco
Summary: This is a position that looks like a pillar of strength, but it has its problems. Bethea is on a one-year tender, Sanders played just 75 snaps in 2009 because of one of his inevitable injuries and Bullitt was exposed in coverage often last season. Silva’s not a threat for too much playing time of defense. Getting a young prospect would really help here.
Polian factor: Can and will draft these guys anywhere.
So in conclusion, I have this to say: Your guess is as good as mine. Here's an updated list of the Colts picks to get you started:
1/31
2/63
3/94
4/129
5/162
7/238
7/240
7/246
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Friday, March 19, 2010
Update
Sorry I haven’t posted for a while, but it’s been busy here at ColtPlay HQ. Here are some points:
• I’m glad the Colts did not sign Richie Incognito. They need to get tougher and more fiery on the offensive line, but not psychotic.
• Yes, everybody but me is rejoicing Tim Jennings is gone. I always thought he got more criticism than he deserved. His career with the Colts will always be summed by one play – the goal-line stand in Super Bowl XLIV. He got there first, he delivered the hit that stopped the back and allowed bigger men to wrap him up. He got no stat and no credit, but without him, the Saints score. So long, Tim, we didn’t all hate you.
• The Chiefs signed Ryan Lilja. What a joke. They sign him out of college in 2004, cut him and try to stash him on the PS. The Colts grab him, he starts 59 games for them, plays in two Super Bowls, then wears out. He fails his physical with two bad knees, the Colts cut him and the Chiefs welcome him back with a $7.5 million deal. Way to go, KC.
• This is the point of the offseason when I normally start listing who the media is reporting who the Colts are looking at. But since they are so often wrong, I’m probably not going to. It works like this. The local yokel media see the Colts at their team’s pro day and report that they must be there to look at their team’s best player. An example? Take 2008 when the Colts went to the University of Buffalo’s pro day. The draft-oriented media reported en masse that the Colts were interested in Trevor Scott. Made sense, after all. The Colts love undersized pass-rushers from small schools, and Scott was easily the team’s best – or at least, most NFL-ready – player. Although the Colts may well have had some interest in Scott, but repeatedly decided not to draft him (he went to Oakland in the sixth). Instead, the Colts drafted his teammate Jamey Richard and signed another Bull, Ramon Guzman, the next day, and still another, Drew Willy, in 2009. So forgive me if I see the media report that the Colts are interested in James Madison’s Arthur Moats, and don’t post it immediately. Although they could well like Moats, they could just as easily be scouting fellow Dukes Dorian Brooks or Mike Caussin. Still, I am intrigued by their interest in Appalachian State’s Armanti Edwards.
• I’m glad the Colts did not sign Richie Incognito. They need to get tougher and more fiery on the offensive line, but not psychotic.
• Yes, everybody but me is rejoicing Tim Jennings is gone. I always thought he got more criticism than he deserved. His career with the Colts will always be summed by one play – the goal-line stand in Super Bowl XLIV. He got there first, he delivered the hit that stopped the back and allowed bigger men to wrap him up. He got no stat and no credit, but without him, the Saints score. So long, Tim, we didn’t all hate you.
• The Chiefs signed Ryan Lilja. What a joke. They sign him out of college in 2004, cut him and try to stash him on the PS. The Colts grab him, he starts 59 games for them, plays in two Super Bowls, then wears out. He fails his physical with two bad knees, the Colts cut him and the Chiefs welcome him back with a $7.5 million deal. Way to go, KC.
• This is the point of the offseason when I normally start listing who the media is reporting who the Colts are looking at. But since they are so often wrong, I’m probably not going to. It works like this. The local yokel media see the Colts at their team’s pro day and report that they must be there to look at their team’s best player. An example? Take 2008 when the Colts went to the University of Buffalo’s pro day. The draft-oriented media reported en masse that the Colts were interested in Trevor Scott. Made sense, after all. The Colts love undersized pass-rushers from small schools, and Scott was easily the team’s best – or at least, most NFL-ready – player. Although the Colts may well have had some interest in Scott, but repeatedly decided not to draft him (he went to Oakland in the sixth). Instead, the Colts drafted his teammate Jamey Richard and signed another Bull, Ramon Guzman, the next day, and still another, Drew Willy, in 2009. So forgive me if I see the media report that the Colts are interested in James Madison’s Arthur Moats, and don’t post it immediately. Although they could well like Moats, they could just as easily be scouting fellow Dukes Dorian Brooks or Mike Caussin. Still, I am intrigued by their interest in Appalachian State’s Armanti Edwards.
Saturday, March 13, 2010
More Adam Terry
All kinds of blogs and forums are talking about Terry as a guard, and some even say that he played inside when he was with the Ravens and/or Syracuse. But this is what Terry himself said:
"I think I might have put myself in there one time when I was playing Madden, but that’s about the extent of my guard career."
"I think I might have put myself in there one time when I was playing Madden, but that’s about the extent of my guard career."
Friday, March 12, 2010
Adam Terry signed!
A few things Colts fans should know about Adam Terry:
He signed a one-year deal, so he’s unlikely viewed as a long-term answer. Still, if he looks awesome, he could be signed to a long-term deal.
In his five years in the NFL, injuries have limited him to 48 of 80 possible regular-season games. He has started 11 games, mostly at left tackle and a few at right tackle. He has allowed nine sacks and been flagged for nine penalties (eight false starts and one hold).
He looked much more effective and comfortable at left tackle than right.
Despite his incredible height, he has short arms. But it hasn’t seemed to hamper him.
Despite his incredible size, his strength and toughness are more often questioned than his balance, footwork or technique.
He’s from a nice little town in the Adirondacks.
Although he has played tight end in short-yardage sets, he has not played a single down at guard in the NFL.
He is considered a better pass blocker than run blocker, and I’d agree.
Injuries: 2009 (knee, 16 games); 2008 (knee, 3 games; concussion 1 game); 2007(ankle, 3 games) and 2005 (ankle, 9 games).
He played extensively on special teams for the Ravens.
He won Syracuse’s Ben Schwartzwalder Exemplary Football Player Award as a junior in 2004. And he also has a degree in history.
He’s a former DT.
He’s considered a good guy in the locker room and the community.
Ran a 5.32 at the Combine, but is a quick starter.
The first time I really noticed him in the NFL was in 2006 when star left tackle Jon Odgen went down after one series against the Steelers, and Terry stepped in. Terry totally neutralized Joey Porter who was Pittsburgh’s pass-rushing star at the time. I made a mental note.
In summary: Terry’s a left tackle who can play on the right side, but any projection of him at guard is just that, a projection (and who ever heard of a 6’8 guard?). If he stays in one piece, he could actually start at left tackle – really, he is that good a pass blocker – allowing Charlie Johnson to move inside and the Colts to groom a rookie to take over in 2011. Just as likely a scenario, though, is that he was signed to be a swing backup and third tight end – just like Dan Federkeil last season – perhaps giving the Colts enough depth to cut ties with Tony Ugoh.
He signed a one-year deal, so he’s unlikely viewed as a long-term answer. Still, if he looks awesome, he could be signed to a long-term deal.
In his five years in the NFL, injuries have limited him to 48 of 80 possible regular-season games. He has started 11 games, mostly at left tackle and a few at right tackle. He has allowed nine sacks and been flagged for nine penalties (eight false starts and one hold).
He looked much more effective and comfortable at left tackle than right.
Despite his incredible height, he has short arms. But it hasn’t seemed to hamper him.
Despite his incredible size, his strength and toughness are more often questioned than his balance, footwork or technique.
He’s from a nice little town in the Adirondacks.
Although he has played tight end in short-yardage sets, he has not played a single down at guard in the NFL.
He is considered a better pass blocker than run blocker, and I’d agree.
Injuries: 2009 (knee, 16 games); 2008 (knee, 3 games; concussion 1 game); 2007(ankle, 3 games) and 2005 (ankle, 9 games).
He played extensively on special teams for the Ravens.
He won Syracuse’s Ben Schwartzwalder Exemplary Football Player Award as a junior in 2004. And he also has a degree in history.
He’s a former DT.
He’s considered a good guy in the locker room and the community.
Ran a 5.32 at the Combine, but is a quick starter.
The first time I really noticed him in the NFL was in 2006 when star left tackle Jon Odgen went down after one series against the Steelers, and Terry stepped in. Terry totally neutralized Joey Porter who was Pittsburgh’s pass-rushing star at the time. I made a mental note.
In summary: Terry’s a left tackle who can play on the right side, but any projection of him at guard is just that, a projection (and who ever heard of a 6’8 guard?). If he stays in one piece, he could actually start at left tackle – really, he is that good a pass blocker – allowing Charlie Johnson to move inside and the Colts to groom a rookie to take over in 2011. Just as likely a scenario, though, is that he was signed to be a swing backup and third tight end – just like Dan Federkeil last season – perhaps giving the Colts enough depth to cut ties with Tony Ugoh.
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Keeping up
The big news today is that the Colts are actually looking at a starting-quality free agent. Adam Terry is huge (6080/334/5.32c in 2005) and strong, but is handicapped by short (32-inch) arms and a lack of durability have kept him from being an elite tackle. He’s looked very good when he has played at both right and left tackle (he has the feet for either position), but never really stayed healthy long enough to be a big-time contributor. I’d be happy if the Colts signed him. If he could stay in one piece, he could be a very nice addition, and he certainly fulfills Bill Polian’s mandate of getting bigger and nastier on the O-line.
Marlin Jackson is gone. He signed with the Eagles to play free safety for them. Good luck, Marlin, but you might want to tell your new employers you were much more effective outside than in.
AdamJT13 is a blogger who is uncannily accurate on predicting compensatory draft picks. This year, he says the Colts will get an extra seventh rounder. He also says there will be three awarded between the third and fourth rounds, none between the fourth and fifth, three between the fifth and sixth, six between the sixth and seventh. The Colts’ extra pick will be the third of the 15 awarded after the seventh round. If he’s correct (and he usually is), the Colts draft (trades notwithstanding) would look like this: 1/31, 2/63, 3/94, 4/128, 5/159, 7/224 and 7/228.
And the Colts also showed some interest in a guy who may be under most people’s radar. Mike Balogun (6015/250/4.75e) was a top inside linebacker prospect with the Oklahoma Sooners who lost his senior season’s eligibility because he participated in a semi-pro football league. He’s a good athlete who played very little in college, but showed some great athletic skills. He’d be a huge project, but could be worth it in the long run. Look for him to go undrafted and sign with the Colts as an UDFA.
Wisconsin OLB Jaevery McFadden (6011/230/e4.69) tells me he met with the Colts, among other teams.
Marlin Jackson is gone. He signed with the Eagles to play free safety for them. Good luck, Marlin, but you might want to tell your new employers you were much more effective outside than in.
AdamJT13 is a blogger who is uncannily accurate on predicting compensatory draft picks. This year, he says the Colts will get an extra seventh rounder. He also says there will be three awarded between the third and fourth rounds, none between the fourth and fifth, three between the fifth and sixth, six between the sixth and seventh. The Colts’ extra pick will be the third of the 15 awarded after the seventh round. If he’s correct (and he usually is), the Colts draft (trades notwithstanding) would look like this: 1/31, 2/63, 3/94, 4/128, 5/159, 7/224 and 7/228.
And the Colts also showed some interest in a guy who may be under most people’s radar. Mike Balogun (6015/250/4.75e) was a top inside linebacker prospect with the Oklahoma Sooners who lost his senior season’s eligibility because he participated in a semi-pro football league. He’s a good athlete who played very little in college, but showed some great athletic skills. He’d be a huge project, but could be worth it in the long run. Look for him to go undrafted and sign with the Colts as an UDFA.
Wisconsin OLB Jaevery McFadden (6011/230/e4.69) tells me he met with the Colts, among other teams.
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
A pick that makes sense
Some weeks ago, I asked my 12-year-old son who the Colts would draft in the first round. He didn’t even take a second to think about it. “Iupati,” he said, as though it had already happened. I asked him why. “Didn’t you watch the Super Bowl?” he answered. And that was that.
And, you know what? The kid might be right, at least if Iupati lasts that long. He’s a natural left guard (the spot recently opened after the cutting of Ryan Lilja), but has the long arms and footwork to succeed at left tackle. He’s huge (6051/331), tough and strong and has a defensive player’s mentality. I watched him in the Senior Bowl, and he was dominant at left guard, but a little less so when asked to play on the right side.
Iupati is exactly what the Colts need, but it may just be too obvious a pick for Bill Polian.
In other news, the Colts signed a defensive end named JD Skolnitsky (6052/263/4.74pd).
Don’t worry if he’s under your radar. He played at a small school, James Madison, and was declared ineligible for his senior year (2009) because he was caught with a banned substance. As a junior defensive tackle, he stood out with 61 tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks, 3 PBU, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery He signed with the Redskins out of college, and played fairly well for them in preseason at end. He was released by the new regime, and was claimed by the Colts.
He’s quick and strong, but doesn’t project as a top-of-the-line pass-rushing prospect. Instead, his best fit would be as a Raheem Brock-style base end who can slide inside on third down.
Skolnitsky, because he missed his senior year and is still thought of more as an undersized DT than a big DE, is as stealth as a prospect can be. But still, he’s got some decent raw material to work with, and is definitely worth keeping an eye on.
And, you know what? The kid might be right, at least if Iupati lasts that long. He’s a natural left guard (the spot recently opened after the cutting of Ryan Lilja), but has the long arms and footwork to succeed at left tackle. He’s huge (6051/331), tough and strong and has a defensive player’s mentality. I watched him in the Senior Bowl, and he was dominant at left guard, but a little less so when asked to play on the right side.
Iupati is exactly what the Colts need, but it may just be too obvious a pick for Bill Polian.
In other news, the Colts signed a defensive end named JD Skolnitsky (6052/263/4.74pd).
Don’t worry if he’s under your radar. He played at a small school, James Madison, and was declared ineligible for his senior year (2009) because he was caught with a banned substance. As a junior defensive tackle, he stood out with 61 tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks, 3 PBU, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery He signed with the Redskins out of college, and played fairly well for them in preseason at end. He was released by the new regime, and was claimed by the Colts.
He’s quick and strong, but doesn’t project as a top-of-the-line pass-rushing prospect. Instead, his best fit would be as a Raheem Brock-style base end who can slide inside on third down.
Skolnitsky, because he missed his senior year and is still thought of more as an undersized DT than a big DE, is as stealth as a prospect can be. But still, he’s got some decent raw material to work with, and is definitely worth keeping an eye on.
Monday, March 8, 2010
Lilja cut!
Lilja cut! Well, we knew it was gonna be one of them. I actually thought he played well last season, but he’s undersized and he was due a $1.73 million roster bonus. This clears up a couple of things. One, undersized and athletic is out, and big and nasty is in. It also means the Colts are short one starting offensive lineman. They could draft a guard in the first round and plug him into Lilja’s spot, or they could draft a tackle and slide Charlie Johnson into Lilja’s old left guard position. Either way, I think it means the Colts draft a big, ugly man in the first round.
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