The Colts released Craphonso Thorpe today, thinning the logjam at reserve wide receiver and reducing the number of experienced kick returners on the roster to just one. (1) To those who follow the Colts, Cro's release shouldn't come as that much of a shock. Pressed into action last year after injuries decimated the club's receiving corps, Thorpe stepped in and was so-so. He showed decent hands and speed, but suffered greatly from the slightest of chucks and was frequently put off his routes. He never dared go anywhere near the hashmarks (2) and was consistently outwrestled. The result was 12 catches out of 20 thrown his way for a decent 60 percent average, but gained just 70 yards (5.83 per reception), (3) with a mere 17 yards after the catch (1.42 per reception) — and just four first downs. Perhaps more pointed is the fact that the Colts went 1-2 in games Thorpe played, and 12-1 when he didn't.
He was okay, but nothing special as a returner, going 15-318-0 (a 21.20 average) on kicks, and 6-31-0 (a 5.20 average) on punts. (4)
So where does all this leave the Colts? Well, I'll be writing my wide receiver positional analysis in the next few days and we can discuss it then.
Until then, some points to ponder while we wait for the draft and watch the other teams play free agency:
• The Colts' fourth-best wide receiver is Devin Aromashadu (5)
• The Colts' third-best guard is Mike Elgin
• The Colts' second-best center is Patrick Ross (6)
• The Colts' third-best defensive end is Jeff Charleston
• The Colts' second-best inside linebacker is Victor Worsley
Notes:
1. For better or worse, the Colts have put their return stock in TJ Rushing. Although I like him as a returner and sometime defensive back, I'd love to see the Colts bring in some competition.
2. Arrrr, there be hard-hittin' safeties thar.
3. I'm sorry, 5.83? That's awful. I always think 12.50 is the bottom acceptable for a wideout, 10.00 for a tight end (unless he's a big-time blocker) and 7.50 for a halfback. To put this in perspective, 60.00 percent of passes to Cro were complete. Those that were, gained 5.83 yards, so throwing to Cro averaged 3.50 yards. Makes you want to go wishbone.
4. But he had NO fair catches. Look, we all know the Colts are horrible at protecting their return men, so that this guy could catch six with once waving is a spectacular testament to his courage.
5. Before you tell me that Roy Hall is nine feet tall and 7,000 pounds and runs a 0.03 forty, let me tell you that I have actually seen young Mr. Aromashadu outwit and outrun NFL-quality defensive backs, and I haven't seen Hall do anything close to that.
6. Or Ross Patrick, I'm not sure.
Friday, February 29, 2008
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Tender and juicy
The Colts virtually never deviate from the Polian doctrine. As soon as the Colts cleared $8 million off their salary cap by cutting two capable, but expensive and ultimately expendable players in Rob Morris and Booger McFarland, they tendered all of their restricted free agents — Matt Giordano, Dylan Gandy, Ben Utecht, Bryan Fletcher and Darrell Reid — with enough left over to cover the rookie pool.
As is standard operating procedure in Indy, each of the restricted free agents received a $927,000 one-year tender. That allows the Colts to match any offers these guys get and, if they choose not to match, they get a draft pick in compensation matching the pick originally used on that player.
In this case, though, the situation isn't as bright as it sounds. Everybody with a passing familiarity with the NFL knows that the salary cap room-strapped Colts won't match any decent offers these guys get. If any gets a decent offer, the Colts will be forced to wave good-bye. And I wouldn't get too excited about the draft-pick compensation, either. while Giordano and Gandy were both fourth rounders, the other three were all undrafted.
But keep in mind that Colts usually find a less-than-welcoming reception on the free agent market
So let's take a look at who they are:
Dylan Gandy
Why he'll get an offer: A skilled guard who can also play center, Gandy has starting experience in a high-powered offense. An active player with good athleticism, Gandy plays with discipline and is durable. A smart player, he understands zone blocking and blitz pickup responsibilities. Why he'll stay: Ex-Colt linemen have bombed after leaving Indy, and teams are cautious. Gandy is undersized and any GM who signs him will have to explain why he spent a fourth-round pick, cash and cap space not just for a guard who couldn't crack the starting lineup in three seasons, but also such a small one. Percent chance he'll stay in Indy this year: 85. There are lots teams with offensive line woes and cap space (they tend to go together), so Gandy will be checked out. But guards rarely get much attention in free agency unless they are really good or really big — and that fourth-round pick looms large. There are tons of guards on the market this year, and Gandy's just another guy to most teams.
Matt Giordano
Why he'll get an offer: A hard-hitting safety with starting-quality skills against both the run and pass. A natural runner, Giordano's a threat to score every time he touches the ball. He'll never get a chance to start in Indy with Bob Sanders and Antoine Bethea in town and may be looking for a shot elsewhere. Why he'll stay: The Colts really like Giordano and realize that self-destructive Sanders won't last a 16-game season, and know that Giordano can step in without a significant dropoff. As with Gandy, any GM signing him will have to explain why he invested in a guy who never cracked the starting lineup and lacks deep speed or size. Percent chance he'll stay in Indy this year: 75. While fans around the league don't know him, GMs do. Giordano could well start for many teams in the NFL, or at least be a very good No. 3. But why spend a fourth-round pick on a guy who's going to be unrestricted next season?
Ben Utecht
Why he'll get an offer: A proven receiver with good hands, sharp routes, the ability to get deep and starting experience; Utecht can even block a little. Utecht can play tight end, H-back, fullback, slot receiver, wide receiver and even long snapper. Oh, and he's an honest 6'6 and a solid all-around guy. Why he'll stay: Utecht is almost laughably injury-prone, and what receiver gives up a chance to play with Peyton Manning? Percent chance he'll stay in Indy this year: 80. Utecht is a player of rare ability and signing him would cost nothing more than his paycheck. But he's missed an average of six games a seasons as a pro — try explaining that to the media when you've spent millions on him.
Bryan Fletcher
Why he'll get an offer: While he's not quite as reliable a receiver as Utecht, Fletcher is proven commodity with some red zone flair — and he's far more durable. Though not likely to start elsewhere, few teams wouldn't welcome a player as versatile and useful as Fletcher. With no compensation due and the Colts unlikely to match, it wouldn't take much to pry Fletcher away from the Colts. Why he'll stay: Coming off a down year, Fletcher's bargaining power is way down. Percent chance he'll stay in Indy this year: 60. Essentially an unrestricted free agent the Colts have invited back, Fletcher has a good thing going in Indy but could easily be swayed by a longer-term deal.
Darrell Reid
Why he'll get an offer: Known for his highlight-reel special teams hits, Reid has experience playing both tackle and end. An active player, he could be better off as a 3-4 end than he has been a 4-3 tackle. Why he'll stay: While you'll see his big special-teams hit on ESPN, you won't see his just-as-frequent whiffs — but scouts will. Few teams have much respect for the Colts defensive tackle corps, and Reid hasn't come within sniffing distance of regular playing time. A marijuana arrest won't help his case, either. Percent chance he'll stay in Indy this year: 90. The Colts like their top trio of tackles — Raheem Brock, Ed Johnson and Quinn Pitcock — and are unlikely to invest much in the position in this year's draft. Instead, Reid will probably be allowed to compete with undersized soph Keyunta Dawson and any late-rounders or undrafted free agents the team acquires.
As is standard operating procedure in Indy, each of the restricted free agents received a $927,000 one-year tender. That allows the Colts to match any offers these guys get and, if they choose not to match, they get a draft pick in compensation matching the pick originally used on that player.
In this case, though, the situation isn't as bright as it sounds. Everybody with a passing familiarity with the NFL knows that the salary cap room-strapped Colts won't match any decent offers these guys get. If any gets a decent offer, the Colts will be forced to wave good-bye. And I wouldn't get too excited about the draft-pick compensation, either. while Giordano and Gandy were both fourth rounders, the other three were all undrafted.
But keep in mind that Colts usually find a less-than-welcoming reception on the free agent market
So let's take a look at who they are:
Dylan Gandy
Why he'll get an offer: A skilled guard who can also play center, Gandy has starting experience in a high-powered offense. An active player with good athleticism, Gandy plays with discipline and is durable. A smart player, he understands zone blocking and blitz pickup responsibilities. Why he'll stay: Ex-Colt linemen have bombed after leaving Indy, and teams are cautious. Gandy is undersized and any GM who signs him will have to explain why he spent a fourth-round pick, cash and cap space not just for a guard who couldn't crack the starting lineup in three seasons, but also such a small one. Percent chance he'll stay in Indy this year: 85. There are lots teams with offensive line woes and cap space (they tend to go together), so Gandy will be checked out. But guards rarely get much attention in free agency unless they are really good or really big — and that fourth-round pick looms large. There are tons of guards on the market this year, and Gandy's just another guy to most teams.
Matt Giordano
Why he'll get an offer: A hard-hitting safety with starting-quality skills against both the run and pass. A natural runner, Giordano's a threat to score every time he touches the ball. He'll never get a chance to start in Indy with Bob Sanders and Antoine Bethea in town and may be looking for a shot elsewhere. Why he'll stay: The Colts really like Giordano and realize that self-destructive Sanders won't last a 16-game season, and know that Giordano can step in without a significant dropoff. As with Gandy, any GM signing him will have to explain why he invested in a guy who never cracked the starting lineup and lacks deep speed or size. Percent chance he'll stay in Indy this year: 75. While fans around the league don't know him, GMs do. Giordano could well start for many teams in the NFL, or at least be a very good No. 3. But why spend a fourth-round pick on a guy who's going to be unrestricted next season?
Ben Utecht
Why he'll get an offer: A proven receiver with good hands, sharp routes, the ability to get deep and starting experience; Utecht can even block a little. Utecht can play tight end, H-back, fullback, slot receiver, wide receiver and even long snapper. Oh, and he's an honest 6'6 and a solid all-around guy. Why he'll stay: Utecht is almost laughably injury-prone, and what receiver gives up a chance to play with Peyton Manning? Percent chance he'll stay in Indy this year: 80. Utecht is a player of rare ability and signing him would cost nothing more than his paycheck. But he's missed an average of six games a seasons as a pro — try explaining that to the media when you've spent millions on him.
Bryan Fletcher
Why he'll get an offer: While he's not quite as reliable a receiver as Utecht, Fletcher is proven commodity with some red zone flair — and he's far more durable. Though not likely to start elsewhere, few teams wouldn't welcome a player as versatile and useful as Fletcher. With no compensation due and the Colts unlikely to match, it wouldn't take much to pry Fletcher away from the Colts. Why he'll stay: Coming off a down year, Fletcher's bargaining power is way down. Percent chance he'll stay in Indy this year: 60. Essentially an unrestricted free agent the Colts have invited back, Fletcher has a good thing going in Indy but could easily be swayed by a longer-term deal.
Darrell Reid
Why he'll get an offer: Known for his highlight-reel special teams hits, Reid has experience playing both tackle and end. An active player, he could be better off as a 3-4 end than he has been a 4-3 tackle. Why he'll stay: While you'll see his big special-teams hit on ESPN, you won't see his just-as-frequent whiffs — but scouts will. Few teams have much respect for the Colts defensive tackle corps, and Reid hasn't come within sniffing distance of regular playing time. A marijuana arrest won't help his case, either. Percent chance he'll stay in Indy this year: 90. The Colts like their top trio of tackles — Raheem Brock, Ed Johnson and Quinn Pitcock — and are unlikely to invest much in the position in this year's draft. Instead, Reid will probably be allowed to compete with undersized soph Keyunta Dawson and any late-rounders or undrafted free agents the team acquires.
New depth chart (no free agents)
QB Manning Sorgi Betts
RB Addai Keith Lawton Dawson Hairston
WR Harrison Wayne Gonzalez Thorpe Roby Shelton Jones
TE Clark Hall Robinson Herold
T Ugoh Diem Johnson Federkiel Toudouze Hilliard
G Lilja Elgin Esera
C Saturday Ross
DE Freeney Mathis Charleston Dawson Ishola Milan
DT Brock Johnson Pitcock Bradley
OLB Keiaho Hagler Session Guzman Nande
ILB Brackett Worsley Shotwell
CB Jackson Hayden Jennings Hughes Rushing Coe Ratliff
S Sanders Bethea Bullitt Condren Smith
K Vinatieri Andrus
P Smith Stanley
LS Snow
RB Addai Keith Lawton Dawson Hairston
WR Harrison Wayne Gonzalez Thorpe Roby Shelton Jones
TE Clark Hall Robinson Herold
T Ugoh Diem Johnson Federkiel Toudouze Hilliard
G Lilja Elgin Esera
C Saturday Ross
DE Freeney Mathis Charleston Dawson Ishola Milan
DT Brock Johnson Pitcock Bradley
OLB Keiaho Hagler Session Guzman Nande
ILB Brackett Worsley Shotwell
CB Jackson Hayden Jennings Hughes Rushing Coe Ratliff
S Sanders Bethea Bullitt Condren Smith
K Vinatieri Andrus
P Smith Stanley
LS Snow
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
So long Morris, g'bye Booger
One day after Coltplay predicted it, the Colts cut Rob Morris and Booger McFarland after they both failed physicals. The affects on the defense will not be profound. McFarland missed the entire 2007 season and Morris' year ended after just 57 snaps, so their replacements are entrenched. A combination of Ed Johnson and Quinn Pitcock will take over for Booger, while the starting outside linebackers will be Freddie Keiaho and Tyjuan Hagler, with potential star Clint Session and Ramon Guzman, a skilled pass-rusher, fighting for time.
Still, the Colts will miss Morris. Say what you will about him, he saved the day on defense in the 2006 Super Bowl run and was a demon on specials. And they don't have a replacement for him there.
Still, the Colts will miss Morris. Say what you will about him, he saved the day on defense in the 2006 Super Bowl run and was a demon on specials. And they don't have a replacement for him there.
Position analysis: Running backs
Starter
Joseph Addai in 2007: 261-1072-12 rushing, 41-364-3 receiving
Backups
Kenton Keith in 2007: 121-533-3 rushing, 13-77-1 receiving
Clifton Dawson in 2007: 30-64-1 rushing, 2-15-0 receiving, 1 special-teams tackle
Luke Lawton in 2007: 5-13-0 rushing, 4-29-1 receiving, 8 special-teams tackles, 3 special-teams assists
Justice Hairston in 2007: no stats (1)
Free agents
None
Analysis
I never believed the rumor that Bill Polian really wanted Laurence Maroney in 2006 and settled for Addai (5112, 214, 4.40 in 2006) after the Patriots grabbed Maroney. Though a case could be made that Maroney is a more natural runner, Addai is a much more complete back — a better receiver and a far, far better pass-blocker (2) — and possesses a personality that better fits the Colts' ideal.
That said, I think Addai is a really, really good back, but not quite a great one. He does everything you want well, but doesn't play to his timed speed and has no truly outstanding attributes. (3) But that's okay. The Colts' offense is so high-powered that a highly competent back like Addai can produce like a superstar.
The one caveat with Addai has been durability. Although he hasn't had any serious injuries in his to seasons as a pro, Addai was frequently hobbled at LSU.
Luckily, the Colts have a talented No. 2 back. In fact, Keith (5110, 207, 4.44 in 2001) had a better per-carry average last year than Addai — 4.40 yards to 4.11 — and he was stuffed less often and had a much higher percentage of runs that led to first downs. He's a slashing, creative runner with explosive cuts who can spot a crease and plays bigger than his size would lead you to believe.
So why isn't Keith starting? Well, he's an incomplete back. What stands out most obviously is that he's a lousy receiver. Addai caught 83.76 percent of passes thrown his way last season — about average for halfbacks. Keith? Just 56.52 percent. (4) And he didn't do much with the passes he caught, averaging 5.92 yards per catch (8.88 for Addai) and 5.85 yards after the catch (8.63). He also has a rep for fumbling. Although he only put the ball on the ground once last season, he did it a lot when he played in Saskatchewan. And, although he's not the worst pass-blocking halfback in the NFL, he's in the bottom quarter or so.
While Keith may not have the qualities the Colts are looking for in a starting back, he's a quality No. 2, and is especially valuable late in games when the Colts move into ball-control mode. (5)
Lawton (5115, 237, 4.55 (6) in 2004) doesn't even pretend to be a complete back. Dude is a fullback. Although he was a feared runner and receiver at McNeese State, his lack of speed and agility means that if he gets the ball in the NFL, it's on a gadget play or an emergency dump-off. His value is more as a blocker and special-teams guy.
Harvard alum Dawson (5095, 214, 4.54 in 2007) is a skilled back, but in limited playing time last year indicated he may not have the initial quickness to carve out a niche in the NFL.
Hairston (6006, 210, 4.58 in 2007) is an interesting story. A young prospect at Rutgers, he got in trouble and landed at Central Connecticut State (7) where he powered through 1-AA defenses like a cannonball through marshmallow. As a senior, he rushed 277-1877-20, including an NCAA record 197 yards in a single quarter, despite having every single eye in the stadium on him. The Patriots drafted him in the sixth round (8), but he suffered an injury in the summer, was placed on injured reserve and eventually reached an injury settlement with the team and was released. The Colts put him on the practice squad and thought enough of him to invite him back this season.
I saw him play at Rutgers and this kid has great instincts, but his lack of deep speed — as well as my deep-seated distrust of halfbacks taller than me — make me wonder if he's a serious candidate to make the roster in September.
What I'd do
Barring injury or a rash of fumbles, I think Addai and Keith will hang onto the top two spots. The other guys will have to fight for jobs. While Lawton is a useful player and fan favorite, players with his skills are not rare as evidenced by the fact that he's been cut eight times in his NFL career. Dawson may be lacking the necessary stuff for the NFL, and Hairston is a long-shot of the lottery ticket variety.
I think the Colts would be well-served to invest a pick in a back with receiving and blocking skills to serve as No. 3 or —perhaps eventually — serve as the primary backup to Addai.
I really like South Carolina's Cory Boyd, but I think his character problems might prevent him from being a Colt. Morgan State's Chad Simpson is a similar player with a less blemished resume. The glut of backs in this draft could easily push a talent like him to the fifth round.
Notes:
1. Not even preseason stats.
2. There's no comparison, Addai looks like a guard compared to Maroney.
3. His two best attributes are pass-blocking and a nose for the end zone — nice skills to have.
4. You can say that the sampling is too small to be significant, but I watched him for years in the CFL and can tell you he has subpar hands at best.
5. Many people like a big pounder in the fourth quarter, but I prefer a speedy slasher. If you are a tired and disillusioned defender, it's harder to chase a player like Keith than it is to bring down a plodder like, say, Ron Dayne.
6. I've seen him play — that McNeese State pro day timing of 4.55 must have been downhill, or maybe down a cliff. I think a 4.75 is more realistic.
7. America's oldest public university!
8. Patriots' vice president of player personnel Scott Pioli is a CC State grad.
Joseph Addai in 2007: 261-1072-12 rushing, 41-364-3 receiving
Backups
Kenton Keith in 2007: 121-533-3 rushing, 13-77-1 receiving
Clifton Dawson in 2007: 30-64-1 rushing, 2-15-0 receiving, 1 special-teams tackle
Luke Lawton in 2007: 5-13-0 rushing, 4-29-1 receiving, 8 special-teams tackles, 3 special-teams assists
Justice Hairston in 2007: no stats (1)
Free agents
None
Analysis
I never believed the rumor that Bill Polian really wanted Laurence Maroney in 2006 and settled for Addai (5112, 214, 4.40 in 2006) after the Patriots grabbed Maroney. Though a case could be made that Maroney is a more natural runner, Addai is a much more complete back — a better receiver and a far, far better pass-blocker (2) — and possesses a personality that better fits the Colts' ideal.
That said, I think Addai is a really, really good back, but not quite a great one. He does everything you want well, but doesn't play to his timed speed and has no truly outstanding attributes. (3) But that's okay. The Colts' offense is so high-powered that a highly competent back like Addai can produce like a superstar.
The one caveat with Addai has been durability. Although he hasn't had any serious injuries in his to seasons as a pro, Addai was frequently hobbled at LSU.
Luckily, the Colts have a talented No. 2 back. In fact, Keith (5110, 207, 4.44 in 2001) had a better per-carry average last year than Addai — 4.40 yards to 4.11 — and he was stuffed less often and had a much higher percentage of runs that led to first downs. He's a slashing, creative runner with explosive cuts who can spot a crease and plays bigger than his size would lead you to believe.
So why isn't Keith starting? Well, he's an incomplete back. What stands out most obviously is that he's a lousy receiver. Addai caught 83.76 percent of passes thrown his way last season — about average for halfbacks. Keith? Just 56.52 percent. (4) And he didn't do much with the passes he caught, averaging 5.92 yards per catch (8.88 for Addai) and 5.85 yards after the catch (8.63). He also has a rep for fumbling. Although he only put the ball on the ground once last season, he did it a lot when he played in Saskatchewan. And, although he's not the worst pass-blocking halfback in the NFL, he's in the bottom quarter or so.
While Keith may not have the qualities the Colts are looking for in a starting back, he's a quality No. 2, and is especially valuable late in games when the Colts move into ball-control mode. (5)
Lawton (5115, 237, 4.55 (6) in 2004) doesn't even pretend to be a complete back. Dude is a fullback. Although he was a feared runner and receiver at McNeese State, his lack of speed and agility means that if he gets the ball in the NFL, it's on a gadget play or an emergency dump-off. His value is more as a blocker and special-teams guy.
Harvard alum Dawson (5095, 214, 4.54 in 2007) is a skilled back, but in limited playing time last year indicated he may not have the initial quickness to carve out a niche in the NFL.
Hairston (6006, 210, 4.58 in 2007) is an interesting story. A young prospect at Rutgers, he got in trouble and landed at Central Connecticut State (7) where he powered through 1-AA defenses like a cannonball through marshmallow. As a senior, he rushed 277-1877-20, including an NCAA record 197 yards in a single quarter, despite having every single eye in the stadium on him. The Patriots drafted him in the sixth round (8), but he suffered an injury in the summer, was placed on injured reserve and eventually reached an injury settlement with the team and was released. The Colts put him on the practice squad and thought enough of him to invite him back this season.
I saw him play at Rutgers and this kid has great instincts, but his lack of deep speed — as well as my deep-seated distrust of halfbacks taller than me — make me wonder if he's a serious candidate to make the roster in September.
What I'd do
Barring injury or a rash of fumbles, I think Addai and Keith will hang onto the top two spots. The other guys will have to fight for jobs. While Lawton is a useful player and fan favorite, players with his skills are not rare as evidenced by the fact that he's been cut eight times in his NFL career. Dawson may be lacking the necessary stuff for the NFL, and Hairston is a long-shot of the lottery ticket variety.
I think the Colts would be well-served to invest a pick in a back with receiving and blocking skills to serve as No. 3 or —perhaps eventually — serve as the primary backup to Addai.
I really like South Carolina's Cory Boyd, but I think his character problems might prevent him from being a Colt. Morgan State's Chad Simpson is a similar player with a less blemished resume. The glut of backs in this draft could easily push a talent like him to the fifth round.
Notes:
1. Not even preseason stats.
2. There's no comparison, Addai looks like a guard compared to Maroney.
3. His two best attributes are pass-blocking and a nose for the end zone — nice skills to have.
4. You can say that the sampling is too small to be significant, but I watched him for years in the CFL and can tell you he has subpar hands at best.
5. Many people like a big pounder in the fourth quarter, but I prefer a speedy slasher. If you are a tired and disillusioned defender, it's harder to chase a player like Keith than it is to bring down a plodder like, say, Ron Dayne.
6. I've seen him play — that McNeese State pro day timing of 4.55 must have been downhill, or maybe down a cliff. I think a 4.75 is more realistic.
7. America's oldest public university!
8. Patriots' vice president of player personnel Scott Pioli is a CC State grad.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
New players coming ... in April
Now maybe the e-mails will stop. I get a lot of them this time of year from people who want to talk Colts free agency. Should they sign Randy Moss? How about Rex Grossman (1)? Wouldn't Lance Briggs look good with a horseshoe on his hat? The Pats cut Rosevelt Colvin, should the Colts grab him? I generally tell them that the Colts will do what they always do: Take of their own guys first, set aside the rookie allotment, and — if there is any money left — think about a veteran free agent or two.
Well, this year, there is no money left. The last report I saw had the Colts about $230,000 OVER the cap. Not only aren't the Colts not going to sign anyone from another team, they are unlikely, he said, to re-sign any of their "own" free agents — restricted or unrestricted. That means good-bye to Aaron Moorehead, Ben Utecht, Bryan Fletcher, Mike Seidman, Jake Scott, Dylan Gandy, Josh Thomas, Darrell Reid, Rocky Boiman and Matt Giordano. Bill Polian said so himself.
Actually, I think Polian is, as he often does, overstating the case. Some restructuring and/or a cap casualty or two (Booger McFarland and Rob Morris, valuable as they are, could figure here) could free up enough room to allow the team to retain, in order of import): Giordano, Gandy and/or Utecht. (2)
If it sounds sad, keep in mind that Polian did sign the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year in Bob Sanders, one of the best-catching tight ends in the league in Dallas Clark, a solid veteran starting guard in Ryan Lilja and a serviceable if not exciting backup quarterback in Jim Sorgi. The fact that they were on the roster last year doesn't make them any less valuable. I sometimes think that many fans believe the Colts could have lost them all, signed Ken Hamlin, LJ Smith, Jacob Bell and Josh McCown just for the sake of something to talk about, or the chance to re-sign Gandy, and come out no worse or even better. (3)
It doesn't work that way. Free agency isn't like Christmas morning, it's more like Christmas shopping. You only get what you pay for and have to brave the other shoppers to pay inflated prices for something that you may not want or may not work anyway. The Colts quite correctly put a major emphasis on continuity. Players, especially on offense, who develop a rapport for one another usually perform better, especially in clutch situations. Of course, there are exceptions. You can have a guy like Wes Welker whose show will play anywhere or a guy like Randy Moss who needed to get out of an awful situation so he could blossom elsewhere. But more often than not, as the old saying goes, a free agent hurts the team he leaves more than helps the one he goes to.
So if any new blood is arriving, it'll be from the draft. The Colts traded away their 2008 first-rounder last year for starting left tackle Tony Ugoh (4), but they still have a pick near the end of every other round.
The Colts may be awarded a compensatory draft pick or two, but I tend not to rely too heavily on the kindness of the league for those. They are determined by the difference in free agents lost and free agents gained. The Colts gained Seidman (IR all season), Rick DeMulling (cut), John Navarre (cut) and Craphonso Thorpe (a serviceable depth player, 12-70-1 receiving, 15-318-0 returning kicks and 6-31-0 returning punts). So, basically nothing. (5)
And they lost Cato June (a competent starter, but hardly the star he was with the Colts after injuries and an ill-advised move to strong side hobbled him), Nick Harper (a decent starter who quickly adapted to the Titans' philosophy), Jason David (a nominal starter with the Saints who was benched, but figures to start this year unless they bring in new talent), Dom Rhodes (likely to be cut by the Raiders after a lackluster first season) and Mike Doss (after an injury-plagued first season with the Vikings that saw him record one tackle in eight games, he figures as no better than the team's No. 3 safety). On paper, their case looks good for a pair of picks, but you never know for sure. (6)
No matter how many draft picks they have, their needs would appear to be (in approximate order):
• the best pass-rushing defensive end possible (7)
• a No. 4 receiver with upside who can play in the slot or outside
• an athletic interior lineman who could evolve into a starter
• a tight end with reliable hands, blocking skills would be nice (8)
• an explosive halfback who can catch and pass-block
• a backup middle linebacker who could eventually start
• an athletic quarterback who could also play other offensive skill positions
• speedy players at any position who can tackle and/or block on special teams
More details as I do my positional analyses.
Notes:
1. This one really gets me. I mean, I know Sexy Rexy has fallen on some hard times, but how many former first rounders who have taken their team to the Super Bowl — without a premier back, receiver, tight end or offensive line — would accept a job where he's virtually guaranteed no playing time and a tiny paycheck?
2. Most of the remaining free agents I could easily live without, and Utecht is always in the whirlpool, but why let Giordano go? What has he not done? I realize he's no Sanders, but I don't think it will take Sanders money to keep him. The Colts have Melvin Bullitt and Brandon Condren waiting in the wings, but do you really think either of them could step in when Sanders has his annual injury? Giordano can and has.
3. I love roster turnover too, when the team is bad.
4. A good move, no?
5. Not to dis Cro, but those numbers would not be hard to replicate.
6. If I had to guess, I'd say a fourth and a fifth.
7. If you're looking in draft books, most of the Colts'-style DEs will be listed as OLBs
8. With Utecht and Fletcher apparently cut loose, it looks like Roy Hall is the "starting" H-back. Which puts Clark back at tight end. Oh, I bet Manning and the Colts' backs are looking forward to that! Clark is subpar as a blocker at tight end and Hall is, well, if he stayed at wideout, he wouldn't be the Colts' best blocker there.
Well, this year, there is no money left. The last report I saw had the Colts about $230,000 OVER the cap. Not only aren't the Colts not going to sign anyone from another team, they are unlikely, he said, to re-sign any of their "own" free agents — restricted or unrestricted. That means good-bye to Aaron Moorehead, Ben Utecht, Bryan Fletcher, Mike Seidman, Jake Scott, Dylan Gandy, Josh Thomas, Darrell Reid, Rocky Boiman and Matt Giordano. Bill Polian said so himself.
Actually, I think Polian is, as he often does, overstating the case. Some restructuring and/or a cap casualty or two (Booger McFarland and Rob Morris, valuable as they are, could figure here) could free up enough room to allow the team to retain, in order of import): Giordano, Gandy and/or Utecht. (2)
If it sounds sad, keep in mind that Polian did sign the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year in Bob Sanders, one of the best-catching tight ends in the league in Dallas Clark, a solid veteran starting guard in Ryan Lilja and a serviceable if not exciting backup quarterback in Jim Sorgi. The fact that they were on the roster last year doesn't make them any less valuable. I sometimes think that many fans believe the Colts could have lost them all, signed Ken Hamlin, LJ Smith, Jacob Bell and Josh McCown just for the sake of something to talk about, or the chance to re-sign Gandy, and come out no worse or even better. (3)
It doesn't work that way. Free agency isn't like Christmas morning, it's more like Christmas shopping. You only get what you pay for and have to brave the other shoppers to pay inflated prices for something that you may not want or may not work anyway. The Colts quite correctly put a major emphasis on continuity. Players, especially on offense, who develop a rapport for one another usually perform better, especially in clutch situations. Of course, there are exceptions. You can have a guy like Wes Welker whose show will play anywhere or a guy like Randy Moss who needed to get out of an awful situation so he could blossom elsewhere. But more often than not, as the old saying goes, a free agent hurts the team he leaves more than helps the one he goes to.
So if any new blood is arriving, it'll be from the draft. The Colts traded away their 2008 first-rounder last year for starting left tackle Tony Ugoh (4), but they still have a pick near the end of every other round.
The Colts may be awarded a compensatory draft pick or two, but I tend not to rely too heavily on the kindness of the league for those. They are determined by the difference in free agents lost and free agents gained. The Colts gained Seidman (IR all season), Rick DeMulling (cut), John Navarre (cut) and Craphonso Thorpe (a serviceable depth player, 12-70-1 receiving, 15-318-0 returning kicks and 6-31-0 returning punts). So, basically nothing. (5)
And they lost Cato June (a competent starter, but hardly the star he was with the Colts after injuries and an ill-advised move to strong side hobbled him), Nick Harper (a decent starter who quickly adapted to the Titans' philosophy), Jason David (a nominal starter with the Saints who was benched, but figures to start this year unless they bring in new talent), Dom Rhodes (likely to be cut by the Raiders after a lackluster first season) and Mike Doss (after an injury-plagued first season with the Vikings that saw him record one tackle in eight games, he figures as no better than the team's No. 3 safety). On paper, their case looks good for a pair of picks, but you never know for sure. (6)
No matter how many draft picks they have, their needs would appear to be (in approximate order):
• the best pass-rushing defensive end possible (7)
• a No. 4 receiver with upside who can play in the slot or outside
• an athletic interior lineman who could evolve into a starter
• a tight end with reliable hands, blocking skills would be nice (8)
• an explosive halfback who can catch and pass-block
• a backup middle linebacker who could eventually start
• an athletic quarterback who could also play other offensive skill positions
• speedy players at any position who can tackle and/or block on special teams
More details as I do my positional analyses.
Notes:
1. This one really gets me. I mean, I know Sexy Rexy has fallen on some hard times, but how many former first rounders who have taken their team to the Super Bowl — without a premier back, receiver, tight end or offensive line — would accept a job where he's virtually guaranteed no playing time and a tiny paycheck?
2. Most of the remaining free agents I could easily live without, and Utecht is always in the whirlpool, but why let Giordano go? What has he not done? I realize he's no Sanders, but I don't think it will take Sanders money to keep him. The Colts have Melvin Bullitt and Brandon Condren waiting in the wings, but do you really think either of them could step in when Sanders has his annual injury? Giordano can and has.
3. I love roster turnover too, when the team is bad.
4. A good move, no?
5. Not to dis Cro, but those numbers would not be hard to replicate.
6. If I had to guess, I'd say a fourth and a fifth.
7. If you're looking in draft books, most of the Colts'-style DEs will be listed as OLBs
8. With Utecht and Fletcher apparently cut loose, it looks like Roy Hall is the "starting" H-back. Which puts Clark back at tight end. Oh, I bet Manning and the Colts' backs are looking forward to that! Clark is subpar as a blocker at tight end and Hall is, well, if he stayed at wideout, he wouldn't be the Colts' best blocker there.
Friday, February 22, 2008
Position analysis: Quarterbacks
Starter
Peyton Manning in 2007: 515-337-4040-31-14 passing, 20-(-5)-3 rushing
Backups
Jim Sorgi in 2007: 36-18-132-1-0 passing, 6-(-4)-0 rushing
Josh Betts in 2007: no stats (1)
Free agents
None
Analysis
There's not a lot to say about Manning (6040, 228, 4.87 in 1998) that hasn't already been said, written, memorized and become legend. But let's run it down briefly anyway:
• He is, if not the best quarterback in the NFL, no worse than second
• His quick release and uncanny improvisational skills prevent bad things from happening to the team and himself
• He has missed one single snap due to injury 160 regular-season and 14 playoff games — and that was for a broken frickin' jaw
• He makes players around him better; and not in the hoary old cliché way — he actually forces players to be more disciplined and better prepared
• He's not going to get into trouble with drugs or violence or anything like that
• He is likely to play for the Colts for as long as he can.
So, let's move onto the other guys. Maytag repairman jokes aside, I'm not a big Sorgi guy, never have been, but the Colts have decided that a cap-friendly caretaker is what they want behind Manning. Sorgi (6033/207/4.68 in 2004) is smart enough, knows the offense like the back of his hand and has a good rapport with many of the team's skill players, especially the backups. The flipside of that is that he doesn't put much zip on the ball, takes too long to get rid of it, locks onto his favorite targets and is not very good at avoiding even a modest rush. He can play decently in short stretches, but if the Colts are depending on him, they're in big trouble.
Betts (6013, 215, 4.89 in 2006) is pretty much the opposite of Sorgi. He's a hard-throwing gunslinger who stands tall in the pocket and will deliver the bomb with aplomb. But, he throws into coverage, lacks real improvisation skill or elusivness. He's one of those tools guys, who still needs to learn the NFL game. Since the Colts appear confident keeping just two quarterbacks, Betts only chances of sticking around would be an injury to Sorgi or a really, really great preseason.
What I'd do
In all likelihood, the Colts will go with just Sorgi behind Manning and keep Betts' number on speed dial just in case.
But, as I do every year, I am suggesting the Colts draft a quarterback. Really. Of course, I'd only recommend it be a late second-day pick.(2) I want the Colts to get an athletic, explosive No. 3 guy for a couple of reasons.
The first is that the team is vulnerable to athletic, running quarterbacks and will be playing against Vince Young at least twice a year for what looks like a long, long time. Practicing against that type of player could be a great help.
And the Colts have a very complicated offense that requires intelligent, versatile players. By their nature, college quarterbacks usually have a much better understanding of offenses and know the necessities of all skill positions. An explosive athlete who could line up wide, in the slot, at halfback, at H-back or even as a trick-play quarterback or kick holder, could be a huge boon. If he can help out on special teams, all the better.
There are some great options at the position, like San Diego's Josh Johnson and Oregon's Dennis Dixon, but they will be gone on the first day (3). People will recommend Marshall's Bernard Morris, but he doesn't have the footspeed or athleticism to play any other position, and his big arm will be too tempting for teams to try to play him elsewhere.
A better bet would be someone like Southern Mississippi's Jeremy Young, Lehigh's Sedale Threatt or West Virginia's Adam Bednarik. They are all solid athletes with good speed, intelligence and team-first attitudes.
(1) In the 2007 preseason, Betts went 55-33-356-3-4, but showed some ability to move things.
(2) Okay, more likely a priority undrafted free agent signing
(3) As long as Dixon's healthy enough, otherwise he could be a Ben Utecht-like bargain
Peyton Manning in 2007: 515-337-4040-31-14 passing, 20-(-5)-3 rushing
Backups
Jim Sorgi in 2007: 36-18-132-1-0 passing, 6-(-4)-0 rushing
Josh Betts in 2007: no stats (1)
Free agents
None
Analysis
There's not a lot to say about Manning (6040, 228, 4.87 in 1998) that hasn't already been said, written, memorized and become legend. But let's run it down briefly anyway:
• He is, if not the best quarterback in the NFL, no worse than second
• His quick release and uncanny improvisational skills prevent bad things from happening to the team and himself
• He has missed one single snap due to injury 160 regular-season and 14 playoff games — and that was for a broken frickin' jaw
• He makes players around him better; and not in the hoary old cliché way — he actually forces players to be more disciplined and better prepared
• He's not going to get into trouble with drugs or violence or anything like that
• He is likely to play for the Colts for as long as he can.
So, let's move onto the other guys. Maytag repairman jokes aside, I'm not a big Sorgi guy, never have been, but the Colts have decided that a cap-friendly caretaker is what they want behind Manning. Sorgi (6033/207/4.68 in 2004) is smart enough, knows the offense like the back of his hand and has a good rapport with many of the team's skill players, especially the backups. The flipside of that is that he doesn't put much zip on the ball, takes too long to get rid of it, locks onto his favorite targets and is not very good at avoiding even a modest rush. He can play decently in short stretches, but if the Colts are depending on him, they're in big trouble.
Betts (6013, 215, 4.89 in 2006) is pretty much the opposite of Sorgi. He's a hard-throwing gunslinger who stands tall in the pocket and will deliver the bomb with aplomb. But, he throws into coverage, lacks real improvisation skill or elusivness. He's one of those tools guys, who still needs to learn the NFL game. Since the Colts appear confident keeping just two quarterbacks, Betts only chances of sticking around would be an injury to Sorgi or a really, really great preseason.
What I'd do
In all likelihood, the Colts will go with just Sorgi behind Manning and keep Betts' number on speed dial just in case.
But, as I do every year, I am suggesting the Colts draft a quarterback. Really. Of course, I'd only recommend it be a late second-day pick.(2) I want the Colts to get an athletic, explosive No. 3 guy for a couple of reasons.
The first is that the team is vulnerable to athletic, running quarterbacks and will be playing against Vince Young at least twice a year for what looks like a long, long time. Practicing against that type of player could be a great help.
And the Colts have a very complicated offense that requires intelligent, versatile players. By their nature, college quarterbacks usually have a much better understanding of offenses and know the necessities of all skill positions. An explosive athlete who could line up wide, in the slot, at halfback, at H-back or even as a trick-play quarterback or kick holder, could be a huge boon. If he can help out on special teams, all the better.
There are some great options at the position, like San Diego's Josh Johnson and Oregon's Dennis Dixon, but they will be gone on the first day (3). People will recommend Marshall's Bernard Morris, but he doesn't have the footspeed or athleticism to play any other position, and his big arm will be too tempting for teams to try to play him elsewhere.
A better bet would be someone like Southern Mississippi's Jeremy Young, Lehigh's Sedale Threatt or West Virginia's Adam Bednarik. They are all solid athletes with good speed, intelligence and team-first attitudes.
(1) In the 2007 preseason, Betts went 55-33-356-3-4, but showed some ability to move things.
(2) Okay, more likely a priority undrafted free agent signing
(3) As long as Dixon's healthy enough, otherwise he could be a Ben Utecht-like bargain
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)