Remember how everyone in Coltsland (except ColtPlay, natch) were telling us all about how interested the team was in Mike "Possum" Jenkins? Well, Jenkins has been a free agent for a while, and I don't think the Colts have dialed his number. Maybe his value was over-rated. The Jags offered him a one-year deal, and he turned it down. Now he's shopping his services to the Bills and Raiders, and nobody wants to play for the Bills or Raiders.
That reminds me of Carson Palmer, whose agents says that if he's cut (and he's almost certain to be), the guy the Raiders gave two first rounders (and more) for, would rather play for the 49ers than the Cardinals. While it's certainly true that the 49ers are a much better-run organization with a very good chance of winning a Super Bowl in the next few seasons and the Cardinals are not, it makes me wonder about the guy. Yes, he could get a ring with San Fran, but in Arizona, he'd actually be wearing a helmet, not a baseball cap. It's not like Matt Hasselbeck, who knew his starting days were behind him when he signed in Indy.
I'd love it if the Colts got a nice halfback in the draft to complement Vick Ballard, but all of them come with so many questions. Hard to be sure about any of them, but there sure is upside. I have a sneaking suspicion we'll see Christine Michael wearing a horseshoe next season.
There's precious little left in free agency, especially at the positions the Colts want. Anybody want to see Ryan Lilja again?
I like the trade for Stanley Havili. He's just a guy who can help in so many ways if he stays healthy. Obviously, his primary job on offense will be as a blitz pickup/outlet receiver, but he can also help on special teams in coverage (he had six special-teams tackles last season) and as a blocker.
I know Josh Chapman is still the future at nose tackle, but they didn't sign Aubrayo Franklin to sit. But that's okay. Franklin is getting on in years (but at a position that has seen lots of success by players well into their 30s) and will offer no pass rush, but he stops runners cold and annoys and occupies linemen, so it's all good.
Like everyone else, I'm pretty sure the Colts won't be able to find a decent starter out the Outlaw Jerry Hughes, Erik Walden or Lawrence Sidbury. To be perfectly honest, I believe that if all three were given the same number of snaps, Sidbury would be the most productive. Still, I'd love to know what made the Falcons bench him when he was so promising early in his career and they so desperately needed pass-rushers? And if was so serious, why didn't they cut him?
Interesting thing about Walden, although his contract is huge, the signing bonus was only $1 million and only his first year's salary is guaranteed. If he's not effective in his first season, cutting him would not leave behind a lot of dead money. Seems like the Colts like him, but are prepared to dump him pending his one-year audition. Similarly, Sidbury received no bonus at all.
Saturday, March 30, 2013
Friday, March 29, 2013
How about this scenario?
With the draft rapidly approaching, I thought it would be fun to put myself in the captain's chair.
1/24 Tank Carradine OLB Florida State
I know, I know, he never did anything before 2012 and is recovering from an ACL tear last November. But when he did play, he was outstanding (11 sacks in 12 games). The Colts need an explosive pass rusher, and it's only Carradine's lack of experience and injury that allow them to grab him at No. 24. I also considered: Jonathan Cooper G North Carolina and Keenan Allen WR California.
3/86 Aaron Dobson WR Marshall
Again I'm choosing the potential greatness, with a good degree of risk. Dobson has all the tools to be a No. 1 NFL wide receiver, but lacks the experience and polish of many others in this class.
4/121 Dennis Johnson HB Arkansas
A do-everything feature back who can run, catch, block and return kicks, Johnson is available here only because of his 13 career lost fumbles. They appear to come from the way he holds the ball, a trait that could be coached out of him.
6/191 Theo Goins G Central Florida
Late picks are usually role players or high-risk.high-upside guys, and the only risk with Goins is whether he can adjust to the NFL after getting by on brute strength in C-USA. Plus, you gotta like a guy named Thaophilius.
7/230 Manase Foketi G West Texas A&M
There were a lot of guys at a lot of positions I liked here, but I had to go with the one with the biggest upside.
7/254 Melvin White S Louisiana-Lafayette
Miscast as a corner, he'd make a better pro safety.
1/24 Tank Carradine OLB Florida State
I know, I know, he never did anything before 2012 and is recovering from an ACL tear last November. But when he did play, he was outstanding (11 sacks in 12 games). The Colts need an explosive pass rusher, and it's only Carradine's lack of experience and injury that allow them to grab him at No. 24. I also considered: Jonathan Cooper G North Carolina and Keenan Allen WR California.
3/86 Aaron Dobson WR Marshall
Again I'm choosing the potential greatness, with a good degree of risk. Dobson has all the tools to be a No. 1 NFL wide receiver, but lacks the experience and polish of many others in this class.
4/121 Dennis Johnson HB Arkansas
A do-everything feature back who can run, catch, block and return kicks, Johnson is available here only because of his 13 career lost fumbles. They appear to come from the way he holds the ball, a trait that could be coached out of him.
6/191 Theo Goins G Central Florida
Late picks are usually role players or high-risk.high-upside guys, and the only risk with Goins is whether he can adjust to the NFL after getting by on brute strength in C-USA. Plus, you gotta like a guy named Thaophilius.
7/230 Manase Foketi G West Texas A&M
There were a lot of guys at a lot of positions I liked here, but I had to go with the one with the biggest upside.
7/254 Melvin White S Louisiana-Lafayette
Miscast as a corner, he'd make a better pro safety.
Thursday, March 28, 2013
Colts trade for fullback Stanley Havili
Another ex-Eagle has landed in Indy. The Colts traded little-used defensive lineman Clifton Geathers to Philadelphia for fullback Stanley Havili.
It's a pretty good move. The Colts needed a fullback, and Havili is a versatile one.
He's not the punishing blocker most people desire at the position, but does a decent job clearing holes and keeping blitzers at bay. In college, he was regarded as a receiving threat, but did not do all that well recording 7-43-0 on 11 targets with one drop. He's not a bad runner, going 6-22-1 as a rook. And, rare for a fullback, can make people miss. He could definitely get some snaps in at halfback.
The biggest problem with Havili is his injury history.
And, in other news, Jeff Linkenbach signed his tender.
It's a pretty good move. The Colts needed a fullback, and Havili is a versatile one.
He's not the punishing blocker most people desire at the position, but does a decent job clearing holes and keeping blitzers at bay. In college, he was regarded as a receiving threat, but did not do all that well recording 7-43-0 on 11 targets with one drop. He's not a bad runner, going 6-22-1 as a rook. And, rare for a fullback, can make people miss. He could definitely get some snaps in at halfback.
The biggest problem with Havili is his injury history.
And, in other news, Jeff Linkenbach signed his tender.
Options at receiver
I'm pretty happy Darrius Heyward-Bey left Indy without a contract. Although he could still sign for a lower price, as his agent says he's deciding between the Colts and Lions (and hinted at Lions because he and Matthew Stafford are old friends), I think the team would be better off if he didn't.
Don't get me wrong, the Colts need a big strong wideout badly, and it would be much better if he was fast. Obviously DHB fits those criteria, but I don't think he's what the Colts need.
He's really just a deep threat, but I'm not sure the Colts lack that. Yes, he did run a 4.25 forty back in the day (2009), but second-year Colts TY Hilton (4.34) is plenty fast, too. Last season, DHB was targeted 20 times on passes that were 20 yards for more through the air, going 4-181-1 with two drops. By comparison, Hilton (who was also targeted 20 times), went 10-383-6 with one drop. While Hilton was obviously the beneficiary of superior quarterback play, it was also his rookie season.
The Colts already have guys who can get yards before the catch, they need guys who can get yards after the catch. While DHB would be an improvement in that department over the since-departed Donnie Avery, he's not as good at it as many other more polished and versatile receivers.
He's also uncomfortable in the slot, is not a return man and doesn't play on special teams. He's a pretty good blocker, though.
So if DHB isn't the answer, who is? All the posturing Colts owner Jim Irsay has done on Twitter regarding acquiring a veteran receiver makes me think they plan to use their first-round pick elsewhere (please, please let it a be an edge rusher, I don't trust the talents of Erik Walden any more than I do those of the Outlaw Jerry Hughes).
Since it appears as though they have been shut out from that plan, they may have to draft a guy early. I'm pretty sure Tennessee's Cordarrelle Peterson will be gone by No. 24, but California's Keenan Allen should be available. I love the kid, and the frequent comparisons to Jordy Nelson are more than apt. But that may make him more of a really, really good No. 2 rather than the No. 1 they need to eventually replace Reggie Wayne.
Another option could be Clemson's DeAndre "Nuk" Hopkins. He has all the atlent in the world, but I'm afraid his lack of over strength and his hand use will make for a rude awakening for him in the NFL, as he'll be pressed and jammed and knocked off his routes like he never was in college.
And, to tell the truth, their forty times (4.53 for Allen and 4.57 for Nuk) disturb me.
If they wait until the third round, the best options would most likely be Tennessee Tech's Da'Rick Rogers (immaturity issues), Arkansas' Cobi Hamilton (limited upside) and Marshall's Aaron Dobson (hmmm). I really like Dobson. Don't put too much into his lack of big-time production at Marshall, the reasons for that were beyond his control. He may take a while to hit his NFL stride, but he could turn into a serviceable No. 1 after a few seasons. If he can stay healthy.
Don't get me wrong, the Colts need a big strong wideout badly, and it would be much better if he was fast. Obviously DHB fits those criteria, but I don't think he's what the Colts need.
He's really just a deep threat, but I'm not sure the Colts lack that. Yes, he did run a 4.25 forty back in the day (2009), but second-year Colts TY Hilton (4.34) is plenty fast, too. Last season, DHB was targeted 20 times on passes that were 20 yards for more through the air, going 4-181-1 with two drops. By comparison, Hilton (who was also targeted 20 times), went 10-383-6 with one drop. While Hilton was obviously the beneficiary of superior quarterback play, it was also his rookie season.
The Colts already have guys who can get yards before the catch, they need guys who can get yards after the catch. While DHB would be an improvement in that department over the since-departed Donnie Avery, he's not as good at it as many other more polished and versatile receivers.
He's also uncomfortable in the slot, is not a return man and doesn't play on special teams. He's a pretty good blocker, though.
So if DHB isn't the answer, who is? All the posturing Colts owner Jim Irsay has done on Twitter regarding acquiring a veteran receiver makes me think they plan to use their first-round pick elsewhere (please, please let it a be an edge rusher, I don't trust the talents of Erik Walden any more than I do those of the Outlaw Jerry Hughes).
Since it appears as though they have been shut out from that plan, they may have to draft a guy early. I'm pretty sure Tennessee's Cordarrelle Peterson will be gone by No. 24, but California's Keenan Allen should be available. I love the kid, and the frequent comparisons to Jordy Nelson are more than apt. But that may make him more of a really, really good No. 2 rather than the No. 1 they need to eventually replace Reggie Wayne.
Another option could be Clemson's DeAndre "Nuk" Hopkins. He has all the atlent in the world, but I'm afraid his lack of over strength and his hand use will make for a rude awakening for him in the NFL, as he'll be pressed and jammed and knocked off his routes like he never was in college.
And, to tell the truth, their forty times (4.53 for Allen and 4.57 for Nuk) disturb me.
If they wait until the third round, the best options would most likely be Tennessee Tech's Da'Rick Rogers (immaturity issues), Arkansas' Cobi Hamilton (limited upside) and Marshall's Aaron Dobson (hmmm). I really like Dobson. Don't put too much into his lack of big-time production at Marshall, the reasons for that were beyond his control. He may take a while to hit his NFL stride, but he could turn into a serviceable No. 1 after a few seasons. If he can stay healthy.
Saturday, March 23, 2013
State of the Colts: Defense
Defensive ends and defensive tackles
In: Ricky Jean-Francois
Out: None
That means: An upgrade. The Colts had some up-and-down play at these two positions last year, and the signing of RJF helps. He gets a lot of criticism because he never played a lot of snaps in San Fran, but who was he gonna put on the bench? Justin Smith, the best 3-4 lineman in the league? Or Ray McDonald, who's not far behind? Still, he;'ll have no problem finding playing time in Indy; pencil him in as a starter.
Will they draft one?: I thought they could go high here until the RJF signing. Still, they could grab a guy like Georgia Tech's underrated Izaan Cross late.
Nose tackles
In: Aubrayo Franklin
Out: Antonio Johnson*
That means: The Colts are not sure about the health of their holdovers here. Essentially, the Colts are replacing the woefully miscast Mookie Johnson at nose tackle with three new players: Besides Franklin, there's 2012 draft pick Josh Chapman and 2012 free agent-signee Brandon McKinney, both of whom missed last season with knee injuries. The fact that they signed Franklin, who'll likely start, indicates they're less than confident about Chapman and McKinney bouncing back.
Will they draft one?: Unlikely, but maybe. Franklin is a competent starter, but might not be for long. If they believe Chapman's his heir apparent, they probably won't select a nose tackle in the draft. But if they don't, they might look at a guy like Tennessee-Martin's Montori Hughes, who dominated in the Ohio Valley Conference, to develop.
Outside linebackers
In: Lawrence Sidbury, Erik Walden
Out: Dwight Freeney*, Jamaal Westerman*
That means: The Colts do not believe in conventional wisdom, or the abilities of the Outlaw Jerry Hughes. While it was obvious to all that Freeney wasn't coming back, and to most that Hughes was not a realistic replacement, the Colts surprised everyone by investing in Walden and Sidbury, two guys who have combined for 14 sacks in 116 games (that's just less than two sacks per 16 games).
Will they draft one?: I certainly hope they do. I'm pretty sure I don't have to bring up the usual suspects.
Inisde linebackers
In: None
Out: AJ Edds*, Moise Fokou
That means: The Colts are generally happy with their inside guys, which include Jerell Freeman, Pat Angerer and Kavell Conner. None of them are headed to Canton, but all are legitimate NFL starters.
Will they draft one?: Maybe, but I'd rather it were later rather than sooner. A guy like Iowa State's AJ Klein might be nice.
Cornerbacks
In: Greg Toler
Out: Jerraud Powers
That means: The turnover continues, although it should be noted that the Colts retained two other free agents, Darius Butler and Cassius Vaughn.
Will they draft one?: The Colts have an enviable top three in Vontae Davis, Toler and Butler, and have invested enough to make me think they are there for the foreseeable future. You could make a decent four and five out of Vaughn and the younger prospects on the team (Josh Gordy, Marshay Green and Teddy Williams), but if the Colts want a developmental guy to add to the competition, I like Louisiana-Lafayette's Melvin White, who could wind up at free safety.
Safeties
In: LaRon Landry
Out: Tom Zbikowski
That means: While I liked Zbikowski a lot, I'm pretty good with the Landry signing. He'll be happy to eb an ex-Jet.
Will they draft one?: Hard to say. I know the Colts have been looking at draft-eligible safeties, and Antoine Bethea is slated to become a free agent after the season, so it could happen.
State of the Colts: Offense
Sorry about the delay. So busy with work and touring to promote my new book. But now that the smoke has settled, let's look at how free agency has affected the Colts and their plans.
Quarterbacks
In: Matt Hasselbeck
Out: Drew Stanton
That means: An upgrade. Not only is Hasselbeck a superior quarterback to Stanton is just plain playing terms, he has a great deal of experience and career wins (80 to Stanton's two). He is one of the few quarterbacks around the league who actually could have something valuable to teach Andrew Luck, and his presence should be invaluable to young Chandler Harnish. And unlike Stanton, who is off chasing his quixotic dreams in the desert, Hasselbeck realizes his starter's days are behind him.
Will they draft one?: Probably not. Luck's established as the starter, and Hasselbeck should be able to help Harnish become a legitimate No. 2 before he retires.
Halfbacks
In: Nobody
Out: Deji Karim, Mewelde Moore
That means: Not a lot. Although Karim was a successful return man, he saw no time on offense. Moore did, and he was terrible.
Will they draft one?: Almost certainly. Like all Colts fans, I love Vick Ballard's effort and style, but I'm not sure the team considers him an elite back. And Goddamnit Donald Brown adds little and is unlikely to break out. There are more than a few backs that fit the Colts' system in this draft, and I know they like Texas A&M's troubled-but-talented Christine Michael. A safer pick would be Vanderbilt's Zac Stacy, but he has a lower upside.
Receivers
In: Nobody
Out: Donnie Avery, Austin Collie
That means: Things are going according to plan. After yet another season-ending injury to Collie, it was pretty clear the team expected to move on. And, although the current regime signed Avery and installed him as a started, they also watched as he was eclipsed by younger talents.
Will they draft one?: Almost certainly. Colts owner Jim Irsay led many to believe by his tweets that the team was pursuing a big-name veteran wide receiver, but no deal has emerged. They have a pretty decent little group with Reggie Wayne, TY Hilton, LaVon Brazill, Nate Palmer and Griff Whalen, but they lack size and there is no heir apparent to Wayne, who'll turn 35 this season. A first-round pick is a possibility if they fall in love with a guy like Tennessee's Justin Hunter or Clemson's DeAndre Hopkins.
Tight ends and fullbacks
In: Nobody
Out: Nobody
That means: The Colts are understandably quite please with their tight end corps.
Will they draft one?: It's not impossible. While Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener are well-entrenched as one and two, the team could add some competition to push blocker Weslye Saunders and do-everything guy Dominique Jones. A project like Rutgers' DC Jefferson, a smart former quarterback, could be worth a look.
Tackle
In: Gosder Cherilus
Out: Tony Hills, Winston Justice
That means: An upgrade. Cherilus has developed into a top right tackle, and offers much more durability than Justice.
Will they draft one?: They might. Depth is an issue as the current projected backups are much-maligned Jeff Linkenbach and youngsters Bradley Sowell and Lee Ziemba. Both starters are fairly young, so tehre could be time to develop someone like Azusa Pacific's Luke Marquardt.
Guards and centers
In: Donald Thomas
Out: Seth Olsen
That means: The team addressed one of its most serious issues.
Will they draft one?: I'd expect so. Although the team likes both Mike McGlynn and Joe Reitz, neither played well last season. Thomas should be able to hold down one spot, but the other could be in open competition. Kent State's Brian Winters could be a great addition.
Quarterbacks
In: Matt Hasselbeck
Out: Drew Stanton
That means: An upgrade. Not only is Hasselbeck a superior quarterback to Stanton is just plain playing terms, he has a great deal of experience and career wins (80 to Stanton's two). He is one of the few quarterbacks around the league who actually could have something valuable to teach Andrew Luck, and his presence should be invaluable to young Chandler Harnish. And unlike Stanton, who is off chasing his quixotic dreams in the desert, Hasselbeck realizes his starter's days are behind him.
Will they draft one?: Probably not. Luck's established as the starter, and Hasselbeck should be able to help Harnish become a legitimate No. 2 before he retires.
Halfbacks
In: Nobody
Out: Deji Karim, Mewelde Moore
That means: Not a lot. Although Karim was a successful return man, he saw no time on offense. Moore did, and he was terrible.
Will they draft one?: Almost certainly. Like all Colts fans, I love Vick Ballard's effort and style, but I'm not sure the team considers him an elite back. And Goddamnit Donald Brown adds little and is unlikely to break out. There are more than a few backs that fit the Colts' system in this draft, and I know they like Texas A&M's troubled-but-talented Christine Michael. A safer pick would be Vanderbilt's Zac Stacy, but he has a lower upside.
Receivers
In: Nobody
Out: Donnie Avery, Austin Collie
That means: Things are going according to plan. After yet another season-ending injury to Collie, it was pretty clear the team expected to move on. And, although the current regime signed Avery and installed him as a started, they also watched as he was eclipsed by younger talents.
Will they draft one?: Almost certainly. Colts owner Jim Irsay led many to believe by his tweets that the team was pursuing a big-name veteran wide receiver, but no deal has emerged. They have a pretty decent little group with Reggie Wayne, TY Hilton, LaVon Brazill, Nate Palmer and Griff Whalen, but they lack size and there is no heir apparent to Wayne, who'll turn 35 this season. A first-round pick is a possibility if they fall in love with a guy like Tennessee's Justin Hunter or Clemson's DeAndre Hopkins.
Tight ends and fullbacks
In: Nobody
Out: Nobody
That means: The Colts are understandably quite please with their tight end corps.
Will they draft one?: It's not impossible. While Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener are well-entrenched as one and two, the team could add some competition to push blocker Weslye Saunders and do-everything guy Dominique Jones. A project like Rutgers' DC Jefferson, a smart former quarterback, could be worth a look.
Tackle
In: Gosder Cherilus
Out: Tony Hills, Winston Justice
That means: An upgrade. Cherilus has developed into a top right tackle, and offers much more durability than Justice.
Will they draft one?: They might. Depth is an issue as the current projected backups are much-maligned Jeff Linkenbach and youngsters Bradley Sowell and Lee Ziemba. Both starters are fairly young, so tehre could be time to develop someone like Azusa Pacific's Luke Marquardt.
Guards and centers
In: Donald Thomas
Out: Seth Olsen
That means: The team addressed one of its most serious issues.
Will they draft one?: I'd expect so. Although the team likes both Mike McGlynn and Joe Reitz, neither played well last season. Thomas should be able to hold down one spot, but the other could be in open competition. Kent State's Brian Winters could be a great addition.
Thursday, March 14, 2013
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